国际市场贵金属价格2月3日早盘全线回升。截至国内市场开盘，现货白银日内涨超5%，高点一度触及 84美元／盎司上方；现货黄金收复4800美元／盎司关口，日内涨超3%。现货铂钯也分别涨超2%和3%。 光大期货最新观点也认为，短短两个交易日，贵金属市场经历了"历史级跳水"的巨大波动，这也是对前 期极端超买与过度拥挤交易的一次"挤泡沫和降杠杆"式的强制性清算，但需要指出的是，支撑贵金属的 长期核心变量（如美元信用体系重构、去美元化储备趋势、地缘政治裂痕常态化）并未发生逆转，长期 驱动逻辑依然完整，本轮剧烈调整过后，黄金或陷入平缓波动阶段，继续上行挑战新高则需要更多时间 消化。 值得关注的是，在贵金属尤其是白银价格创纪录暴跌之后，2月2日，全球最大白银ETF——iShares Silver Trust的白银持仓量为单日增加1023.23吨，总持仓从前一交易日的15523.36吨急升至16,546.59吨， 完全回补了自1月21日以来该ETF连续减持的数量。 在此背景下，国内贵金属3日开盘后也普遍回升，其中沪银主力合约打开跌停板，沪金主力合约快速拉 升，日跌幅从2日夜盘收盘的超3%收窄至不足1%。 来源：新华财经 吴郑思 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-02-03 股市避险等待，债市⻓端震荡 研究员: 股指期货：商品流动性踩踏向股市传导，短期避险等待。 股指期权：期权对冲情绪凸显，反弹博弈暂不显著。 国债期货：债市⻓端⾛势偏强。 股指期货⽅⾯，商品流动性踩踏向股市传导，短期避险等待。周一市 场集中计价流动性踩踏，主要受外盘商品传导。上周五夜盘，国际金价、 银价继续大幅回撤，交易多头拥挤，和担忧沃什上任后缩表+降息，美联 储减少长债购买，令美国利率曲线陡峭化，抬升长端利率水平，美元或重 新走强，逆转了之前的交易逻辑。周一国内开盘，商品继续计价外盘跌 幅，金、银、碳酸锂、锡、镍、铜等品种罕见跌停，连锁反应印证流动性 危机，期货期权杠杆强平又加速了这一负反馈。虽然国内中期通胀主线仍 成立，但短期流动性踩踏下，需回避波动风险，市场风格有向价值、红利 切换的迹象，建议IC多单切换至IH多单或降仓进行防御。同时考虑到"春 躁"仍有时间，后续关注板块补涨机会，高景气内部或从周期切向科技， 后市考虑仓位切换至IM多单，观察有色金属降波和价格企稳的积极信号。 股指期权⽅⾯，期权对冲情绪 ...

Group 1 - The core issue behind the recent sharp decline in precious metals is liquidity tightening rather than a fundamental collapse in prices [4][10] - The immediate trigger for the crash was an increase in margin requirements by exchanges, forcing leveraged funds to liquidate positions, leading to a domino effect [4][8] - The silver ETF experienced an 8.7% drop in a single day, illustrating the passive selling effect caused by the liquidity crunch [4] Group 2 - An unusual divergence has been observed where precious metals are falling despite stable or declining U.S. Treasury yields, indicating that the market is pricing in "liquidity panic" rather than interest rates [6][8] - Concerns over rising leverage costs, tightened risk controls by exchanges, and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve are driving investors to sell off volatile assets like silver [8][10] Group 3 - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggest that the market is adjusting its expectations for a hawkish return, with inflation not yet back to target and premature rate cuts posing risks [10][20] - This shift in expectations is likely to pressure risk assets and make leveraged funds more cautious, further exacerbating the downward pressure on precious metals [10][20] Group 4 - Historical comparisons indicate that the current situation resembles the 2013 "taper tantrum" rather than the 2008 financial crisis, as there are no signs of a systemic financial crisis, but liquidity is indeed tightening [12][18] - The market is currently experiencing a "liquidity squeeze," which may lead to significant short-term volatility, but the long-term trend for precious metals is not expected to change drastically [18][21] Group 5 - Ray Dalio's recent insights emphasize that holding cash can be a proactive defense strategy amid rising policy uncertainty and increased asset price volatility [20] - Three potential liquidity scenarios have been outlined, ranging from mild tightening to extreme liquidity crises, each with different implications for precious metals [22][21]

——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20260202— 不要浪费每一场危机（+1月官方制造业PMI低于预期+股市与商品均大幅下跌-流动性担忧+资金面均衡偏松=涨跌不一】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率涨跌互现。 一旦重仓，人性的弱点会占据你的大脑，不是你想离开就能轻松离开的。仓位越重，思想越不客观，越会屏蔽不利于自己的信息。 白银以一己之力带崩了整个商品和股票。股民哭了：笑GJD一时爽，求GJD火葬场！债农也笑不出来：股商蹦迪的时候你说"股债跷跷板"，股商跳水的时 候你又讲"流动性危机"，合着债涨是原罪？ 此前黄金冲到5500，外资行齐唱多到6000；如今跌回4600，某大行火速改口至4000。变的看似是逻辑，不变的永远是"追涨杀跌"的人性。如果流动性担忧 继续演绎，或许正是买入好资产的时机。欢迎加入星球，投资路上不孤单。 【今日盘面】 250016 1.8050/1.8175/1.8000/1.8150 +0.50 250215 1.9500/1.9600/1.9500/1.9580 -0.40 2500006 2.2450/2.2550/2.2450/2.2515 -0.85 央行公开市场开展750亿元7天期逆回购操作 ...

划重点： 1）贵金属 1 月底的暴跌并非基本面的溃败，而是高杠杆多头的集体谢幕。2026 年初，过度超买的黄金在凯文·沃什入主联储的预期下闪崩，演变为吞噬一切 的流动性黑洞。为弥补黄金头寸的巨额亏损，对冲基金被迫抛售流动性极佳的科技巨头，导致纳斯达克陪葬。 2）沃什对美元信用的强硬捍卫，让此前盛行的"美元崩溃论"遭遇冷水。历史总是在恐慌中押韵，正如 2008 与 2020 年的洗盘，黄金往往在流动性危机初期 率先补跌，以此完成对投机资金的终极出清。 3）抄底不仅需要勇气，更考验对时机的精准拿捏。当下需紧盯美元指数的斜率拐点与 CME 保证金的下调信号，确认"飞刀"是否已经落地。当市场为了生 存而不得不卖出心爱之物时，往往正是价值回归的最佳伏击点。 2026 年 1 月底，贵金属多头们经历了职业生涯中最黑暗的一天。 曾被奉为"乱世金律"的避险资产，在短短数十小时内演绎了一场史诗级溃败。现货黄金市值蒸发近 4 万亿美元，白银、铂金、钯金更是以两位数的跌幅垂直 落水。这种量级的波动，令无数信奉"通胀买金"逻辑的投资者目瞪口呆。 这会是贵金属牛市的终结，还是物理资产的一次"极端排毒"？在 RockFlow 投研团队看 ...

基本面上，上周由于地缘局势和关税等的升级推动，金价如期触及给出的目标区间5500-6000的区域， 但之后由于利好因素整体减弱，各平台的保证金增加和交易限制，以及股市的大跌，造成流动性危机而 被迫获利和斩仓，而连续跳水。 2月2日：黄金市场上周：国际黄金创历史记录性涨幅后，又创历史记录性大跌，最终收取巨长上影线倒 垂形态，对于后市来讲，有再度陷入阶段性见顶调整的预期，以及数周的横盘震荡整理的趋势。但整体 的牛市趋势依然有效，每次阶段性的调整，在当下来看，依然还是再度的入场机会。 具体走势上，金价自周初高开于5005.58美元/盎司，并先行连续攀升，于周四进一步录得当周高点 5595.97美元后，大幅跳水后，剧烈震荡，并到周五时段，又显史诗级跳水行情，收复当周涨幅的同 时，还进一步跌至4588.52美元当周低点，最终有所震荡回升，收于4860.31美元，相对于前周收盘价 4982.08美元，周振幅613.89美元，收跌121.77美元，跌幅2.44%。 影响上，受地缘局势不确定性再度升级，以及市场对于1月底前美国政府停摆的担忧，再加上特朗普威 胁对加拿大韩国等加征关税威胁，和对于美元的进一步言论等等，助力金价先 ...

01、黄金暴跌导火索是沃什，但点火的是"拥挤的交易"？ 王爷说财经讯： 金价崩了？黄金跌麻了！ 你敢信吗？就在刚刚过去的这个周末，全球金融市场上演了一出"惊魂跳水"！ 注意了！这不是演习，是真金白银的"暴跌"。2026年2月2日，现货黄金直接击穿4500美元防线，一度逼近4400美元，单日跌幅超过12%！ 这是什么概念？ 这是40年来最惨烈的单日暴跌！ 但问题来了：这次崩盘，真的只是因为特朗普提名了那个"鹰派"狠人凯文·沃什当美联储主席吗？如果你只看到这一层，那你离"韭菜"就不远了。 今天咱们就剥开表象，看看这场暴跌背后，到底藏着什么吃人的底层逻辑！ 很多媒体都在说，是因为沃什要上台，大家怕加息，所以黄金跌了。 这话对，但只对了一半。 你想想，黄金在1月底刚涨了多少？ 一个月狂飙30%，从1455美元干到5598美元！这哪里是投资，简直是抢钱。 市场热得发烫，所有人都挤在同一艘船上狂欢。 这时候，只要有人喊一声"狼来了"，哪怕只是个影子，这艘超载的船就会翻。 沃什的提名，就是那个影子。它引发了"紧缩恐慌"，美元一涨，黄金这不付息的资产自然被抛弃。但更核心的是： 杠杆资金的踩踏。 白银跌了27%，铂金跌了30% ...

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 没有意外的杀跌！ 早上开盘，A股贵金属板块大跌，晓程科技、招金黄金、四川黄金、湖南黄金、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、西 部黄金、山东黄金等十余股竞价跌停。油气板块和商品期货亦大多迎来暴击。 与此同时，外围变数再现。有消息指出，美国杠杆贷款指数（Leveraged Loan Index）正在下跌，回到 了 2025年4月以来的最低点，这是流动性出现问题的先兆。事实上，周末虚拟币市场大跌，也印证了这 个问题。 全线杀跌 外围市场不单是贵金属在跌，天然气的杀跌在极大程度上也影响了能源板块的走势。 受近期天气预报转暖影响，美国天然气期货价格大幅下挫，几乎回吐前一交易日的全部涨幅。报道称，近 月合约在亚洲早盘一度下跌17%，至每百万英热单位3.62美元。故而，今天早上，A股油气板块几乎是全 线跌停。通源石油、中曼石油、准油股份、石化油服、贝肯能源竞价跌停，科力股份、潜能恒信跌超 10%。 商品期货市场早上开盘亦是多数大跌。文华财经数据显示，截至9:04，沪银期货主力合约跌停，沪金期货 主力合约跌超10%，铂期货主力合约跌停，钯期货主力合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent plunge in precious metals is not due to a fundamental collapse but rather a result of high-leverage long positions being liquidated, triggered by expectations surrounding Kevin Warsh's nomination to the Federal Reserve [3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gold market experienced a dramatic drop, with nearly $4 trillion evaporating in market value, and silver, platinum, and palladium also saw significant declines [5][8]. - The surge in gold prices to over $5,600 per ounce was followed by a rapid decline due to a precarious position structure, with the RSI exceeding 90, indicating extreme overbought conditions [8][9]. - The announcement of Kevin Warsh's nomination led to a strong rebound in the dollar index, causing leveraged positions in gold to face severe losses, triggering a chain reaction that affected major tech stocks [9][10]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historical patterns from 2008 and 2020 suggest that precious metals often lead declines in the stock market during liquidity crises, indicating that the recent drop may be a cleansing of speculative excess rather than the end of a bull market [12][14]. - The current situation is likened to a "hard landing test" for the over-inflated precious metals market, suggesting that the market is undergoing a necessary correction [14]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on three key indicators for identifying potential bottoming in the gold market: the slope of the dollar index, the progress of CME margin adjustments, and the financial health of mining companies [19][21][23]. - A significant signal for market recovery would be a decline in the dollar index and a stabilization of gold prices, alongside a reduction in margin requirements by CME [20][22]. - Mining companies with strong cash flow and low all-in sustaining costs (AISC) are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, especially when their stock prices fall to more reasonable valuation multiples [23][24].

Market Overview - The precious metals sector in A-shares experienced a significant decline, with multiple stocks such as Xiaocheng Technology, Zhaojin Gold, and Sichuan Gold hitting the daily limit down [3][10] - The oil and gas sector also faced severe impacts, with major companies like Tongyuan Petroleum and Zhongman Petroleum seeing their stocks drop to the limit down [4][11] Commodity Market Movements - The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced adjustments to the margin levels and price fluctuation limits for silver deferred contracts, increasing the margin from 20% to 26% and the fluctuation limit from 19% to 25% [3][10] - In the commodity futures market, significant declines were noted, with the main contracts for silver and gold futures hitting the limit down, and platinum and palladium futures dropping over 15% [4][11] External Market Influences - The U.S. leveraged loan index has fallen to its lowest point since April 2025, indicating potential liquidity issues in the market [3][5][12] - The cryptocurrency market also experienced a sharp decline, with Ethereum dropping below $2300 and Bitcoin falling below $77000, reflecting broader market concerns [5][12] Economic Indicators - A report from Tianfeng Securities highlighted a potential liquidity shock, with the tracked U.S. dollar liquidity index dropping to -60%, indicating extreme tightening that could affect global assets [6][13] - The recent volatility in the market has been attributed to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, who is perceived as hawkish and advocates for both interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction [6][14] Telecommunications Sector Impact - Major telecommunications companies in China, including China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom, announced an increase in the value-added tax rate from 6% to 9%, which is expected to impact their revenues and profits [4][11]