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Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to fluctuate and rise in the short - term and has high strategic allocation value in the long - term due to international order changes [1]. - Silver will continue to have range - bound oscillations, influenced by gold and basic metals [1]. - Copper is under pressure in the short - term but is still favored in the long - term [1]. - Zinc may have a short - term rebound but is expected to have a supply - increase and demand - weak situation in the long - term [1]. - Lead is under pressure due to supply and demand factors [1]. - Tin is under pressure with inventory accumulation and supply recovery [1]. - Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure due to factors in the upstream and downstream [1]. - Nickel's price rebound is under pressure because of cost and inventory factors [1]. - Industrial silicon has a bearish outlook due to supply - demand imbalance [1]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to short on rebounds as supply remains high and demand is in the off - season [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver 行情回顾 - Trump's tax reform was initially passed, and conflicts in Gaza and between Russia and Ukraine flared up again, which may support the price of gold [2]. 基本逻辑 - Trump's tax reform bill narrowly passed the House of Representatives, which will increase the US debt by $4 trillion. CBO estimates that the US fiscal deficit will increase by about $1.77 trillion from 2025 - 2029. China's central bank has been buying a large amount of gold, with last month's import reaching 127.5 metric tons, a 73% month - on - month increase. The Middle East is in turmoil. In the long - term, the global trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - easing of fiscal and monetary policies will support gold to attract incremental funds [3]. 策略推荐 - In the short - term, long positions can be arranged in the gold market, and for long - term investment, control the position. Silver may continue to have range - bound oscillations in the range of [8130, 8350] [4]. Copper 行情回顾 - The center of gravity of Shanghai copper has moved down, testing the support of the lower moving average [5]. 产业逻辑 - Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and the copper concentrate processing fee is - $43.05 per ton. With the increase in smelting maintenance, the supply of electrolytic copper in May may decline to 1.1257 million tons. Trump's copper import tariff policy is causing the depletion of copper inventories outside the US. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory is 139,900 tons, and the high copper price is suppressing demand. However, green copper demand in power, automotive, and home appliances is strong, offsetting the weakness in traditional copper demand in real estate and infrastructure [5]. 策略推荐 - Due to the increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and China entering the policy window period, copper has returned to its fundamentals. With continuous inventory accumulation in China, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. Hold the remaining long - position bottom positions cautiously and pay attention to the support at the 77,000 level. In the long - term, there is confidence in the rise of copper. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [77,000, 78,500], and for London copper, it is [9200, 9600] dollars per ton [6]. Zinc 行情回顾 - The rise of London zinc drove Shanghai zinc to have a small rebound [7]. 产业逻辑 - In 2025, the supply of zinc ore is expected to be looser. The domestic processing fee for zinc concentrate is reported at 3500 yuan per ton, and the import processing fee has increased by $5 per ton to $45 per ton. In April, China's zinc ingot production was 555,400 tons, with the daily average output increasing by 900 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 10.1%. The downstream demand has weakened, and the operating rate of zinc - related enterprises has declined [7]. 策略推荐 - Zinc is a short - position variety in the sector. Although it was the only rising variety in the non - ferrous sector when the market sentiment subsided, in the short - term, the inventory reduction at home and abroad supports the price, but with the arrival of the consumption off - season, the terminal demand is weak and the supply continues to increase. It is recommended to hold the previous short positions. In the long - term, take short - selling opportunities on rebounds. The range for Shanghai zinc is [22,000, 22,600], and for London zinc, it is [2650, 2750] dollars per ton [8]. Aluminum 行情回顾 - The price of aluminum rebounded under pressure, and the price of alumina showed a downward trend [9]. 产业逻辑 - For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - trade environment has eased. In mid - May, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 585,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum rods was 131,600 tons, a decrease of 6600 tons from last Thursday. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.6%, and new orders decreased. For alumina, the news disturbance from the overseas Guinea bauxite end has eased. The overall bauxite supply is at a high level, and the port inventory increased by more than 400,000 tons in April. Domestic alumina enterprises have concentrated on maintenance and production reduction, and the demand for bauxite has weakened. The inventory of alumina has decreased but is still at a relatively high level [10]. 策略推荐 - It is recommended to wait and see for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to inventory changes, and the main operating range is [19,800 - 20,500]. Alumina is expected to operate stably [10]. Nickel 行情回顾 - The price of nickel rebounded under pressure, and stainless steel was also under pressure [11]. 产业逻辑 - For nickel, the overseas macro - environment has eased. The shipping volume of nickel ore from the Philippines has increased, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore has decreased, weakening the cost support. In April, China's refined nickel production increased by 6% month - on - month and 47% year - on - year. The latest operating rate of refined nickel enterprises is 67%, and the operating rate of leading enterprises remains high. In May, the domestic pure nickel social inventory is about 44,100 tons, with a slight increase week - on - week and still at a relatively high level. For stainless steel, driven by positive trade news, the inventory pressure in the stainless steel spot market has decreased. The total inventory in Wuxi and Foshan markets has dropped to 980,700 tons, a 0.85% week - on - week decrease. Although the social inventory has decreased due to the recovery of consumption, the overall industry still faces the pressure of oversupply [12]. 策略推荐 - It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [120,000 - 129,000] [12]. Carbonate Lithium 行情回顾 - The main contract LC2507 opened high and went high, with a reduction in positions and a rebound, rising more than 3% during the session [13]. 产业逻辑 - A lithium salt factory in Jiangxi plans to stop production for 4 months, affecting the monthly output by 1500 tons, which has a small impact on the overall supply scale. The price of raw materials has not stopped falling, and the negative feedback between lithium salt and ore still exists, causing the price center of gravity of lithium carbonate to move down. The upstream resource end has not stopped production, and the Australian Finniss project is conducting restart research with reduced operating costs. Domestic smelters have not had large - scale production cuts. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the Sino - US negotiation has not brought incremental orders to the energy storage market. Downstream enterprises are rushing to ship goods to reduce inventory, and the total inventory has increased again this week, with the inventory pressure concentrated on smelters, and the oversupply may further expand. The main contract is testing the support at the 60,000 integer level [14]. 策略推荐 - Short on rebounds in the range of [61,500 - 63,500] [14].

Core Viewpoint - Country Garden is facing an unprecedented credit crisis due to delayed financial disclosures, resulting in public reprimands from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and significant financial losses [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, Country Garden reported a total revenue of approximately 252.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 37.0% [6]. - The company recorded a loss attributable to shareholders of approximately 32.8 billion yuan, a significant reduction from a loss of 178.4 billion yuan in 2023 [6]. - Total debt increased from approximately 249.6 billion yuan at the end of 2023 to about 253.5 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with over 100 billion yuan in default or cross-default situations [6]. Regulatory Issues - The Shanghai Stock Exchange publicly reprimanded Country Garden and its executives for failing to disclose the 2024 interim report on time, which was eventually disclosed on February 24, 2025 [2][3]. - Similar disciplinary actions were taken for the late disclosure of the 2023 annual report, affecting the company's market reputation and credit rating [3][4]. Debt Restructuring Efforts - Country Garden is focusing on debt restructuring as a critical path forward, with plans to complete the restructuring by December 31, 2025 [8]. - The company has accelerated asset disposals, raising over 60 billion yuan since 2022, and recently sold a stake in Blue Arrow Aerospace for 1.305 billion yuan to fund operations [7]. - As of May 9, 2024, over 50% of the holders of public notes have joined the restructuring support agreement, with the total debt restructuring amount reduced to approximately 14.074 billion USD [7]. Management Challenges - The transition of management to Yang Huiyan has coincided with a liquidity crisis and increasing debt pressures, raising concerns about the company's operational sustainability [6][8]. - The company faces significant challenges from market conditions, consumer confidence, and a declining gross profit margin in its real estate business [6].

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying economic conditions in both the US and China, rather than reacting to the fluctuating news about tariffs. Investors should focus on the core economic fundamentals to navigate uncertainties effectively [2][4]. Group 1: US Economic Analysis - The core issue in the US economy is whether excess wealth can absorb the inflation caused by future tariffs. If it can, profits will remain stable; if not, stagflation may occur [6][14]. - The risk premium in the US is at a historical high, which could easily trigger a liquidity crisis if it breaks [14]. - The US faces a significant challenge with a peak in corporate debt, particularly in the junk bond sector, which could be severely impacted by inflation and tariffs [10][11]. Group 2: Chinese Economic Analysis - The key question for China is whether the release of household savings can continue and whether tariffs will disrupt this recovery [15][21]. - Recent monetary policies, such as interest rate cuts, aim to prevent disruptions from tariffs and support economic recovery [19]. - The proportion of precautionary savings among Chinese households has decreased from 26% in 2022 to an expected 19% in 2024, indicating a gradual return to normal spending behavior [19][20]. Group 3: Economic Interaction Models - Three interactive models are proposed to understand the Chinese economy: what economic changes trigger policy responses, what changes yield the best profit visibility for A-shares, and what changes affect consumption upgrades and downgrades [22][30]. - Historical data shows that significant policy changes often occur when uncontrollable economic factors (red line) decline, prompting government intervention [25][26]. Group 4: Tariff Implications - The article discusses the short-term unpredictability of tariffs and emphasizes the importance of understanding the mid-term logic behind them, distinguishing between primary risks (β) and relative risks (α) [38]. - The US's role in global demand is significant, with it accounting for about 16% of total global imports and 1/3 of global final consumer goods imports [38]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The best investment strategy in the current environment is to "respond to uncertainty with certainty," as articulated in the April Politburo meeting [39]. - China's financial market is expected to provide more certainty than the US market in the coming months, with lower volatility anticipated due to clearer challenges and policy responses [40][41]. - The focus should be on high-dividend stocks and technology investments, which are seen as stable opportunities amid the current economic landscape [41].

Core Viewpoint - Jeffrey Gundlach warns that the US CPI may exceed 4% by the end of the year, and due to liquidity crises and external shocks, the Federal Reserve may ultimately have to lower interest rates in a high-inflation environment, potentially even implementing Yield Curve Control (YCC) [1] Group 1 - Gundlach emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's recent communication indicates significant uncertainty regarding the direction of interest rates, suggesting that they will not make decisions based on "soft data" [1][6] - He predicts that the inflation rate in the US is likely to end the year in the 4% range, which raises concerns about the appropriateness of rate cuts in such an environment [11][12] - Gundlach believes that the Federal Reserve may have to lower rates not because inflation data improves, but due to liquidity issues [14] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is currently in a position where it is waiting for clearer signals from hard data rather than soft data, which may lead to a lag in their response to economic conditions [6][9] - There is a consensus among analysts that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation are currently balanced, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [6][12] - Gundlach expresses concern that if interest rates become uncomfortably high, external shocks may prompt the government or the Federal Reserve to implement YCC, which would be a challenging situation [12]

"新债王"杰弗里·冈德拉克（Jeffrey Gundlach）警告，按照目前的趋势，到年底美国CPI可能突破4%，但 因为流动性危机及美国政府外部冲击，美联储可能最终不得不在高通胀环境下开启降息，甚至启动 YCC。 5月8日，Gundlach在接受CNBC采访时表示，美联储在45分钟发布会上只传达了一个信息：对于利率走 向，未来有太多的不确定性，目前不知道会发生什么。考虑到美联储不会基于"软数据"做评估的暗示， 这意味着当情况恶化时（被迫降息），恶化的状况要足够大。 Gundlach警告，考虑到目前的状况，到今年年底，美国通胀率大概率突破4%，在高通胀环境下，美联 储可能不该降息，因为这可能在长期带来更大的麻烦。但最终美联储可能不得不降息，甚至启动 YCC： 如果利率变得令人不安的高。美国政府、财政部或美联储会产生某种外生冲击，他们可能会 进行收益率曲线控制。这将会非常困难。 我确实认为他们会降息，但不是因为通胀数据变得很好。而是因为流动性不足问题，美联储 最终会降息。 以下为访谈内容节选： 史蒂夫・利斯曼： 斯科特，我可以把这整个45分钟的新闻发布会总结成一个问题，我说，你先倾向于哪一个方 向？这是鲍威尔的 ...

Report Title - 4月全球固收市场"去美元化"更显著——全球资产配置资金流向月报（2025年4月） [1] Report Core View - In April 2025, the "de-dollarization" trend in the global fixed-income market became more prominent. The global financial market was significantly affected by Trump's tariff policies, leading to a sharp decline in the dollar index and increased concerns about the US dollar's credit. Global funds showed a clear shift from the US fixed-income market to other regions, especially emerging markets and European markets. Meanwhile, global funds flowed back into the Chinese equity market [3][8][25]. Market Review: Tariff Shocks Intensify Global Market Volatility - Trump's "Reciprocal Tariff Plan" and China's countermeasures in early April led to a liquidity crisis in the global stock market, which then rebounded after Trump postponed the tariff implementation. The US dollar index weakened significantly in April, while the 10Y US Treasury yield increased marginally. Global stock markets fluctuated sharply, with European and Japanese assets outperforming US dollar-denominated assets. Precious metals rose significantly, while oil and copper prices fell [3][5][8]. - Global funds flowed out of the money market in April, with a net outflow of $31 billion, a significant decline compared to the $35 billion inflow in March. Global funds flowed into developed and emerging stock markets, with inflows of $51 billion and $26 billion respectively. High-yield bonds and emerging market bonds saw outflows [3][18]. Global Asset Classes: Significant Outflow of US Fixed-Income Funds in April - US fixed-income funds experienced a large outflow in April, with a net outflow of $23.234 billion, compared to an inflow of $2.0881 billion in March. In contrast, global equity funds received significant inflows, with China and Europe leading the way [12][25][30]. - The money market saw a large outflow of funds in April, while developed and emerging stock markets continued to attract inflows. The inflow into developed stock markets weakened marginally, while the inflow into emerging stock markets strengthened [18]. - Emerging market equity funds received a large inflow in April, reaching $28.085 billion, a significant increase compared to the $3.22 billion inflow in March. The inflow into the US stock market slowed down [25]. - In April, the inflow into developed and emerging equity markets accelerated. After Trump postponed the tariff implementation, investors' risk appetite increased significantly. The inflow into developed equity markets was $56.47 billion, and the inflow into emerging equity markets was $17.046 billion [39]. Chinese Stocks and Bonds: Global Funds Flow Back into Chinese Equity in April - According to the EPFR fund data, global equity funds flowed into the Chinese market in April, with a net inflow of $20.976 billion, compared to an outflow of $0.895 billion in March. Passive ETFs were the main source of inflow, while active mutual funds continued to outflow [27][60]. - Domestic funds flowed into the Chinese stock market in April, while foreign funds flowed out. Southbound funds continued to flow into the Hong Kong stock market, mainly into the non-essential consumer sector [61][63][70]. - Global funds flowed into the technology, real estate, and telecommunications sectors in the Chinese stock market in April, while the financial and consumer staples sectors saw significant outflows [64]. - The inflow of global funds into the Chinese fixed-income market slowed down in April, with a net inflow of $1.523 billion, compared to an inflow of $3.249 billion in March [71]. Country Allocation: Reduced Allocation to US Stocks and Increased Allocation to European, Japanese, and Chinese Stocks in March - In March 2025, global stock market funds reduced their allocation to US stocks and continued to increase their allocation to European stocks. The allocation ratio of global funds to the US stock market decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 61%, while the allocation to European stocks such as the UK, France, Switzerland, and Germany increased [75][77]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the allocation ratio of global funds to the Chinese stock market has continued to rise, increasing by 0.2 percentage points to 1.1%, which is at the 26.4% percentile of historical levels [77]. - In March, emerging market funds increased their allocation to the Chinese and Indian stock markets, while significantly reducing their allocation to the Taiwanese market [78][80]. - As of March 2025, funds from various regions increased their allocation to the Chinese stock market, including global, global (excluding the US), emerging market, Asia-Pacific, and Asia (excluding Japan) funds [83].

Core Viewpoint - *ST Pengbo (Peng Doctor Telecom Media Group Co., Ltd.) faces potential delisting risks due to consecutive years of receiving "unable to express opinion" audit reports, with its stock possibly suspended from trading starting April 30, 2025 [1][2] Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately -88.47 million yuan for 2024, with total revenue around 187.67 million yuan [5] - *ST Pengbo has experienced a continuous decline in revenue for seven consecutive years from 2017 to 2023, with net profits of -1.17 billion yuan in 2021, -454 million yuan in 2022, and -93 million yuan in 2023 [5] - The company’s financial situation has deteriorated significantly, with a total loss exceeding 5 billion yuan in 2019 due to massive goodwill and fixed asset impairments [4] Operational Challenges - The company has been struggling with liquidity issues since 2019, exacerbated by price wars in the broadband industry and regulatory fee reductions [4] - *ST Pengbo has been involved in numerous lawsuits and arbitration cases, with some bank accounts frozen, indicating severe operational and financial risks [6] Regulatory Issues - The company is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for alleged violations of information disclosure, including failure to disclose related party transactions and significant contracts [6][7] - The CSRC has imposed a fine of 10 million yuan on *ST Pengbo and a 15 million yuan fine on its actual controller, Yang Xueping, due to serious violations [6][7] Market Position - Once recognized as the "fourth largest operator" in China, *ST Pengbo has seen its market position decline significantly after divesting key assets like Changcheng Broadband [2][4] - The company primarily operates in data centers, cloud computing, and internet access services, but its transition efforts have not yielded expected results [2][5]

当天会议上，日本共产党书记局长小池晃就驻日美军经费问题提问称，日本已承担了大量相关费用，美方仍认为"不足"。 对此，石破茂回应说："日本并不打算唯命是从地按照美方要求承担更多负担。"他强调，"日本的国防应该由日本来决定，不应将安全保障问题与关税谈 判挂钩"。 见证历史，黄金价格再创新高。 今日午后，现货黄金一度冲上3500美元，为历史首次，截至发稿，现货黄金回落至3471美元左右，COMEX黄金则回落至3494美元左右。不过，在今年， 现货黄金涨幅已超过30%。 | 3471.759 "F | | | 3423.770 总量 | | | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | +47.989 | +1.40% 开盘 | | 3423.846 | 现于 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 3500.120 | 持 仓 | 0 | Ar | | 0 | | 最低价 | 3411.225 | 幫 | 0 | 内 | | 0 | | 分时 | 五日 | 日K | 周K | 目K | 白家 | | | 畳加 | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 350 ...

特朗普意想不到的事可能不止一件！ 据美国媒体报道，特朗普政府给美国高校带来的巨大压力正转化为美股市场的巨大抛盘。目前，耶鲁大学 正寻求大规模出售其私募股权投资组合，交易规模恐高达60亿美元，相当于其414亿美元捐赠基金的 15%，这是耶鲁在二级市场上首次抛售。 有分析称，免税地位若被取消，哈佛大学也将开始出售流动性资产如股票，也许还会发行更多债务，此举 恐引发骨牌效应，撼动整个金融体系的稳定性。 今天美元指数再度暴跌，高盛对冲基金业务负责人Tony Pasquariello近日发布报告指出，目前美元高估 了20%，这种高估正是美国例外主义的结果。关税正在破坏强势美元的核心支柱，而这一次是美国与世界 的对抗，因此更类似"英国脱欧"而不是第一次贸易冲突。到目前为止，主要是欧元区投资者抛售美国股 票，外国投资者并未大规模净抛售美国国债。 高校大抛售来袭 美国常春藤名校与特朗普政府的对峙正将华尔街推向一场前所未有的流动性风暴。 据美国媒体报道，面对来自特朗普政府的压力以及对免税资格的威胁，耶鲁大学正寻求大规模出售其私募 股权投资组合，交易规模恐高达60亿美元，相当于其414亿美元捐赠基金的15%，这是耶鲁在二级市场上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The United States has initiated substantive trade negotiations with Japan, aiming to establish Japan as a model case for agreements with other countries following the recent tariff delay announcement [1][2]. Group 1: U.S.-Japan Trade Negotiations - Japan is the first country to engage in substantial trade negotiations with the U.S. after the tariff delay, indicating a strategic choice by the U.S. [1][2]. - The U.S. intends to use Japan as a template for future agreements with other nations, highlighting the importance of this negotiation [2]. Group 2: Potential U.S. Demands on Japan - The U.S. may push Japan to set explicit trade surplus targets, which could force Japan to reduce exports and increase imports, impacting its trade balance [3]. - Other potential demands include pushing for yen appreciation, which could harm Japanese export-oriented companies and hinder economic recovery [3]. - The U.S. might also request Japan to extend the maturity of its U.S. Treasury holdings, limiting Japan's foreign exchange reserve flexibility [3]. Group 3: Japanese Government's Stance - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida emphasized the importance of not compromising too quickly for a deal, advocating for a careful approach to negotiations [4]. - The potential U.S. demands could significantly impact Japan's financial markets, with warnings of a rapid depreciation of the dollar and a substantial appreciation of the yen [4]. Group 4: Impact on Japanese Economy and Bond Market - A stronger yen could reduce the competitiveness of Japanese exports, adversely affecting manufacturing firms that rely heavily on exports [5]. - Increased fiscal spending, as suggested by the U.S., would require Japan to issue more government bonds, exacerbating supply pressures in the bond market [5]. - The Japanese long-term bond market is already showing signs of instability, with recent spikes in yields indicating market volatility [5]. Group 5: Global Market Implications - Nomura warns of a global bond market imbalance and tightening liquidity risks, which could lead to broader credit contractions [7]. - The recent fluctuations in global stock markets and the widening of high-yield bond spreads indicate ongoing credit tightening [7].