上海楼市"沪七条"重磅发布，其中提到非沪籍家庭外环内购房社保年限缩短至1年，公积金贷款最高额 度提至240万元，成年子女唯一住房暂免房产税。地产支持政策接续释放，有望助力一线城市房价企 稳、稳定居民资产信心，对消费形成积极支撑。 此外，春节消费数据表现亮眼。2026年"史上最长"9天假期，国内出游5.96亿人次、旅游总花费8034.83 亿元，均创历史新高；全社会跨区域人员流动量超28亿人次，日均3.11亿人次，同比增长8.2%。服务消 费、新消费龙头表现突出，消费复苏斜率向上。 Wind数据显示，港股通消费ETF易方达（513070）近9个交易日连续"吸金"，合计超12亿元。该产品管 理费率仅为0.15%/年，是全市场港股消费类ETF中唯一的低费率ETF，助力投资者低成本布局港股消费 龙头。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 中证港股通消费主题指数既覆盖酒旅、餐饮等传统服务业龙头，也包含潮玩、金饰等高弹性资产，以及 运动服饰、白电等高股息标的。截至2月24日，指数滚动市盈率为18.3倍，位于2020年发布以来3.3%分 位处，配置价值显现。 ...

2月24日，A股喜气洋洋，迎来马年的开门红，但拿着消费的，脸绿得发青，不说白酒高开低走，就是原来走得像模像样，俨然有老登带头大哥之势的中 免都封死跌停，以致公司都要出来回应。 自从23年春节来，消费已经连续四年春节没见过好脸色了，也连续四年没啥行情了。许多投资人觉得科技股已经涨很久了，对26年的消费是抱有期待的， 而现实又给了老登投资人一盆冷水。 当前是消费的至暗时刻，还是漫漫长夜继续？我们可以先来看一下消费的数据面。 史上最长的春节消费数据如何？ 春节是一个消费旺季，但落到我们投资上，其实主要是白酒和社服，后者包括免税、酒店、餐饮、出行等相关数据。 春节占白酒一年消费量的很大一部分，26年春节的白酒消费继续不给力，整体动销下滑了10-15%，不过临近春节前夕有所恢复。 茅台的批价持续往上走，站上了1700，除了茅台外，表现好的有五粮液，节前一周一些区域的动销恢复正增长，批价和春节成交价为780元+和800元+， 略超预期。但这个略超预期，终究是市场预期本来就低带来的，并不是白酒表现好了。分价格带看，中间的次高端是表现最差的一档，高不成低不就。 节前收盘后官方出了一个文件，三部门联合印发了《酿酒产业提质升级指 ...

北京商报讯（记者 吴其芸）2月24日，记者从国免获悉，假期期间，国免合计销售额同比增长41%，环 比增长34%，展现出消费市场的旺盛活力与企业经营的强劲韧性。 国免方面表示，海南旅游市场持续火爆，带动三亚离岛免税店表现尤为突出，销售额同比、环比均增长 44%，假期进店客流同比增长 94.8%。口岸免税渠道整体同比增长35%，多家口岸店因地制宜打造差异 化经营策略，实现突破性增长。其中，南京机场出境店以传统文化沉浸式体验实现销售额同比增长 18%；重庆机场出境店聚焦爆品驱动销售同比增长53%；延吉机场出境店依托"小而美"温情服务实现环 比增长83%、单日销售额屡创新高；广西凭祥、云南河口等边境口岸店紧抓边境游新政试点，销售同比 增长均超20%。 ...

春节食品动销表现几何？后市如何看？20260223 摘要 春节期间，社会消费呈现强劲复苏态势，零售餐饮企业日均销售额同比 增长 8.6%，为主要长假中高增速水平。春运期间人员流动量显著增加， 节后流动量同比增速达 11.1%，途牛数据显示人均出游天数同比增加 1.1 天，达 5.9 天，反映消费意愿增强。 大众食品消费方面，企业库存清理完毕，渠道新鲜度高，经销商信心恢 复，备货充足。礼盒消费依然火热，但消费者更注重性价比，价格集中 在 50-100 元区间。下沉市场表现良好，价格折扣竞争减缓，零售终端 价格坚挺。 乳制品行业表现分化，华东和华中地区增长显著，常温液奶增长约 7%，伊利、蒙牛分别增长 8-9%和 5-6%，常温酸奶结束下跌态势，实 现正增长。华南地区表现偏弱，但渠道库存不高，高端品类保持增长， 君乐宝低温产品增速约 20%。 现制茶饮行业受益于暖冬天气和出行旺盛，同店 GMV 表现良好，蜜雪 冰城、古茗、瑞幸等品牌均有超过 10%的增长。堂食消费为主，加盟商 利润较高，外卖补贴压力有限，预计全年同店 GMV 将保持平稳。 Q&A 2026 年春节期间大众食品整体表现如何？ 2026 年春节期间， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating an expected return above 10% over the next 12 months [7]. Core Insights - The consumption data during the Spring Festival exceeded expectations, validating the effectiveness of recent policies aimed at stabilizing consumption and highlighting the recovery of service-oriented and experiential consumption compared to traditional retail [5]. - The report anticipates that the decision-makers will continue the positive momentum established during the Spring Festival, with further targeted and gradual easing measures expected around the "Two Sessions" to stabilize expectations and support demand [5]. - Leading restaurant operators with significant scale advantages and strong cost control capabilities, as well as core duty-free operators benefiting from long-term policy advantages, are expected to achieve relative gains as the consumption cycle normalizes [5]. Summary by Sections Spring Festival Consumption - The Spring Festival consumption was better than expected, with key retail and catering enterprises showing a year-on-year sales growth of 5.7%, significantly higher than the previous year's growth rates of 4.1% and 2.7% during the Mid-Autumn Festival [1]. - Over 20.5 billion yuan in consumption vouchers and subsidies were issued by local governments, effectively supporting demand [1]. Restaurant Sector - Increased dining demand was driven by higher travel frequency, milder weather, and longer holidays, with New Year's Eve dining reservations increasing over threefold year-on-year [2]. - Major dining brands and supermarkets launched diverse ready-to-eat and semi-finished meal boxes, catering to family gatherings and reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards convenience [2]. Tourism Sector - The extended holiday boosted tourism demand, with significant year-on-year increases in customer flow and orders for themed tourism such as ice and snow tours [3]. - Domestic travel orders reached new highs, with ticket bookings for scenic spots increasing by over 80% and hotel night stays rising by 75% [3]. Duty-Free Consumption - Duty-free sales in Hainan saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 30.8% to 2.72 billion yuan during the Spring Festival, driven by improved supply and operational efficiency following the implementation of new policies [4]. - The strong performance of duty-free consumption underscores the resilience and profitability potential of domestic duty-free channels [4].

行业点评（R3）- 无重点股票 食品饮料 白酒表现分化，大众品价稳量升 食品饮料行业春节跟踪点评 投资要点： 2026 年 02 月 24 日 评级 领先大市 评级变动： 维持 行业涨跌幅比较 30% 食品饮料 沪深300 % 1M 3M 12M 食品饮料 3.28 -3.44 -3.56 沪深 300 -0.90 4.64 17.14 黄静 分析师 -10% 0% 10% 20% 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 2025-11 | 执业证书编号:S0530524020001 | | | --- | --- | | huangjing48@hnchasing.com | | | 胡跃才 | 分析师 | | 执业证书编号:S0530525070001 | | | huyuecai@hnchasing.com | | 证券研究报告 投资建议：考虑食品饮料板块低预期、低估值、低持仓的特征，以 及板块呈现企稳改善的态势，我们维持板块"领先大市"的评级。 白酒方面，建议关注品牌力强、量价策略改善的龙头企业；大众品 方面，建议关注β企稳、α持续释放的速冻食品龙头；竞争格局稳 固，价盘有望边际改善的乳品龙头 ...

如何理解信贷开门红偏弱 每年1月金融数据之所以备受关注，一个主要原因在于其是观察年初经济"开门红"成色的重要指标。据 华泰证券统计数据，2023年～2025年，1月贷款占到全年信贷投放的比重分别为22%、27%和32%，说明 贷款前置投放的趋势在强化。 基于宏观环境和月末票据市场表现等综合因素，尽管信贷"开门红"预期仍在，但多数机构对今年1月的 信贷投放持保守态度，市场预期以较上年同期持平或略增为主。 央行节前披露的1月金融数据显示，在政府债与企业债等支撑下，2026年社融同比多增，实现"开门 红"。不过，信贷投放整体偏弱，1月新增人民币贷款不及去年同期。回顾历年表现，1月信贷同比少增 不算多见。 但从结构来看，有诸多信号值得关注。对公方面，1月企业中长期贷款同比少增约2800亿元的同时，票 据贴现同比少增约3600亿元，这被市场视为银行更加注重投放均衡、"冲量"特征弱化的信号。多位机构 人士指出，在监管引导下，信贷"重质轻量"预计在今年进一步凸显。 从居民部门看，中长期贷款继续受到楼市拖累，短贷则成为观察消费复苏节奏的重要参考指标，1月居 民短贷在上年低基数基础上实现了近1600亿元的同比多增。不过，不少机 ...

Group 1 - Meituan's report indicates that popular travel destinations during the 2026 Spring Festival include Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Chongqing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Xi'an, Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Wuhan, with Yiwu, Heshan, and Zhangjiagang being the top three county-level tourism hotspots [1] - The report highlights a 76% year-on-year increase in family ticket bookings, with "multi-generational travel" emerging as a new trend, and a 79% increase in total spending on group travel during the Spring Festival [1] - During the first four days of the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025, marking four consecutive years of growth [1] Group 2 - The demand for dining during the Spring Festival saw a significant increase, with Meituan reporting a 105% year-on-year growth in reservations for New Year's Eve dinners [2] - There was notable performance in lower-tier markets, with Douyin reporting a 66% increase in group buying sales in third-tier and below cities, and a 72% increase in takeaway orders in rural areas of Guangdong [2] - The growth of prepared dishes is accelerating, driven by new national standards and ongoing changes in retail channels, with leading companies leveraging supply chain advantages to capture market share [2] Group 3 - The consumption-related industry theme ETFs are being closely monitored for recovery opportunities, including the Huaxia Consumption ETF (510630) which tracks major consumption industry indices [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption ETF (513230) tracks the consumption theme index, providing exposure to leading new consumption companies across various sectors [3] - The Tourism ETF (562510) focuses on service consumption, excluding commodity consumption, and covers sectors such as duty-free, airlines, and hotel dining [3]

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC (01876) is undergoing a deep adjustment period in the Chinese market, facing short-term performance pressure due to reform pains and external shocks, but positive signals are emerging from channel transformation, with preliminary improvements in market share observed in Q4 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the full year 2025, the company's revenue and EBITDA were $5.76 billion and $1.59 billion, respectively, representing a year-on-year decline of 6.1% and 9.8%; Q4 revenue and EBITDA were $1.07 billion and $170 million, down 4.2% and 24.7% year-on-year [2] - The Chinese market significantly dragged down performance, with Q4 revenue and EBITDA declining by 11.4% and 42.3% year-on-year, and full-year revenue and EBITDA down 11.3% and 15.7% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the full year was $489 million, a decrease of 32.1% year-on-year, while cash flow remained robust with a dividend payout ratio increased to 153% [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Strategy - The industry in China is experiencing stable volume but declining prices, with Budweiser APAC actively transforming its channels; the decline in sales volume in Q4 narrowed from 11% in Q3 to 3.9% [3] - The company is focusing on high-end product positioning and expanding into new channels like instant retail and O2O, with expectations for ASP improvement in 2026 supported by various factors including policy changes and increased consumer confidence [3] - Management's outlook for 2026 includes organic growth, inorganic expansion, and shareholder returns, with a focus on high-end channels in China and maintaining a strong position in the Korean market [3] Group 3: Valuation and Target Price - The estimated EPS for the company for 2026-2028 is projected at $0.04, $0.05, and $0.05, respectively, with the valuation multiple for 2026 adjusted from 20x PE to 25x PE, maintaining a target price of HKD 7.9 [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC is undergoing a deep adjustment period in the Chinese market, facing short-term performance pressure due to reform pains and external shocks, but positive signals are emerging from channel transformation, with preliminary improvements in Q4 market share [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the full year 2025, revenue and EBITDA were $5.76 billion and $1.59 billion, down 6.1% and 9.8% year-on-year; Q4 revenue and EBITDA were $1.07 billion and $170 million, down 4.2% and 24.7% year-on-year [2] - The Chinese market significantly dragged down performance, with Q4 revenue and EBITDA declining 11.4% and 42.3% year-on-year, and full-year revenue and EBITDA down 11.3% and 15.7% year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the full year was $489 million, a decrease of 32.1% year-on-year, while cash flow remained robust with a dividend payout ratio increasing to 153% [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The industry saw stable volume but declining prices in Q4 2025, with leading companies maintaining stable operations; however, the average selling price (ASP) has been under pressure, hindering premiumization [3] - Budweiser APAC, as a leader in high-end beer, is increasing investments in emerging channels like instant retail and O2O, with early signs of improvement as the decline in sales volume narrowed from 11% in Q3 to 3.9% in Q4 [3] - The company is expected to benefit from multiple factors supporting ASP improvement in 2026, including effective policies to boost consumer confidence and demand, alongside the release of benefits from high-end positioning and channel transformation [3] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The management has outlined three core outlooks for 2026: organic growth, inorganic expansion, and shareholder returns, with a focus on high-end home channels and O2O expansion in China [4] - The company plans to explore M&A and collaboration opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region, supported by strong cash flow for external growth [4] - A high dividend policy continues, with a dividend yield of 5.6% providing a solid safety net for the stock price; the depreciation of the US dollar is also expected to positively impact financial statements [4]