中国银河证券主要观点如下： 服务消费，元旦出行数据高增长： 中国银河（601881）证券发布研究报告称，元旦客流的恢复，带动文旅、酒店与餐饮恢复，使服务消费 成为假期内需修复的主动力。消费行业需要重视"十五五"规划中消费的中长期目标；短期关注针对2026 年消费相关具体政策落地。对消费行业2026年海外业务的发展持乐观观点。消费个股方面，关注市场风 格切换(高切低)过程中的高分红率优质公司，以及各细分赛道中有阿尔法的公司。 事件：2026年，大力提振消费是重要政策方向。看好服务消费活力释放，以及国补对商品消费的刺激作 用。体验型服务消费是重要的增长点，元旦假期游客度假选择愈发多元，如冰雪运动、避寒休闲、文化 体验、亲子游乐等场景。2026年将有元旦、春节、中秋节与国庆节四大加强版假期，更有利于服务消 费。其中元旦假期长达3天；春节假期9天是史上最长；中秋不再"占用"国庆假期，多出2天独立中秋 假。 海南、澳门出境游大幅增长：1)作为海南全岛封关后的首个小长假，去哪儿旅行数据显示，飞往海口、 三亚的机票预订量增幅居全国首位，三亚入境机票量同比增逾5倍，海口增逾3倍，并显著带动周边酒店 入住量提升1–1.5倍不等 ...

2026年开年布局窗口，券商资管集体锚定权益、债市与FOF三大赛道。受访投资经理普遍认为，权益市场仍处牛市后半 段，盈利驱动替代估值修复，科技、高端制造与国企改革主线轮动；债市预计维持宽幅震荡，利率波段与可转债策略并 重；在波动与机会并存的环境下，多资产、多策略配置仍为主流，通过FOF组合分散风险、捕捉阿尔法，成为全年收益的 关键抓手。 12月31日,2025年A股最后一个交易日圆满收官,截止收盘,沪指涨0.09%报3968.84点,深成指跌0.58%报13525.02点,创业板指跌 1.23%报3203.17点,科创50指数跌1.15%报1344.2点。沪深两市合计成交额20452.35亿元,逾2700股下跌。 二、基金要闻 一、交易提示 三、12月31日新发基金一览（不包含传统封闭式基金） | 基金代码 | 基金简称 | 基金经理 首次蔡集目标 | | 投资美型 | 发行截止日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | | | | 024997 | 前海开源兴和债券 A | 李炳智 | 50.00 | 债券型 | 2026-03-30 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 A-share market experienced a bull market driven by "hard technology," characterized by significant structural differentiation and record-breaking performance in various metrics [8][10]. Market Performance Summary - Major indices saw substantial increases, with a typical pattern of "strong innovation, stable main board, and weak value" [9]. - The market scale achieved a historic leap, with active leverage and foreign capital participation, indicating a concentrated performance in high-growth sectors [10]. Leading Sectors - The top-performing sectors averaged a 47.61% increase, with notable performances in: - Non-ferrous metals: +92.64% driven by AI/new energy demand for copper and lithium, alongside gold as a safe haven [11]. - Communications: +87.27% due to the explosion of CPO optical modules and accelerated satellite internet [11]. - Electronics: +49.40% from breakthroughs in domestic AI chips and semiconductor equipment [11]. - A total of 533 stocks doubled in value, with 7 stocks increasing over 500%, and the TMT sector accounting for 33.31% of daily trading volume [12]. 2026 Market Outlook - The 2026 market is expected to shift from liquidity and valuation-driven growth to profit-driven performance, with three core logical drivers: 1. Intensive policy dividends from the "14th Five-Year Plan" and proactive fiscal policies [13]. 2. Continued domestic and international liquidity easing, with anticipated Fed rate cuts [13]. 3. Sustained corporate profit recovery, with nearly 60% of listed companies expecting positive earnings [13]. Core Investment Themes - The main investment themes for 2026 include: 1. Core offensive line: AI full chain and new productivity, driven by policy, technology, and performance [15]. 2. High elasticity line: High-end manufacturing going overseas, benefiting from global energy transition and a strong RMB [16]. 3. Defensive line: Consumption recovery and cyclical rebounds supported by domestic demand policies [19]. Key Industries and Focus Areas - Key industries to watch include: - New energy vehicles, photovoltaic + energy storage, and high-end equipment [20]. - Consumer sectors such as smart cars and high-dividend blue chips in pharmaceuticals [20]. - Industrial metals and energy sectors benefiting from global inventory replenishment [20]. Market Dynamics and Timing - The market is expected to follow a rotational rhythm, with specific focuses for each quarter, including AI computing and applications, overseas expansion, and high-dividend defensive stocks [20][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive rebound of Chinese concept stocks in the US market during the New Year period, driven by signs of domestic consumption recovery and optimism about China's consumer market in 2026 [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Public QDII funds heavily invested in Chinese concept stocks saw a significant rebound, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 4.36% on the first trading day of 2026 [3]. - Individual stocks such as Baidu surged over 15%, while other notable gains included 9.8% for Global Data, 5% for Manbang, 6% for iQIYI, and 2% for Pinduoduo, indicating strong performance across the board for internet and consumer leaders [3]. - The rebound reflects a shift in market sentiment towards consumer stocks, as previously favored tech stocks experienced adjustments during the holiday period [3]. Group 2: Investment Outlook - As the investment horizon shifts to 2026, leading stocks like Alibaba, Bilibili, and NetEase are showing strong upward momentum, suggesting global capital's optimistic outlook on China's consumption recovery [2][6]. - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on structural opportunities within the consumer sector, with many conducting research on companies that are adapting to new consumption trends [5]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Drivers - Multiple fund companies anticipate that government policies aimed at boosting consumption will play a crucial role in 2026, with expectations for increased fiscal spending and support for service consumption [6][7]. - The article notes that the "reward economy," "first release economy," and "silver economy" are emerging consumption trends that could catalyze growth and value re-evaluation for related companies [7]. Group 4: Performance of Consumer Funds - Consumer-focused funds have demonstrated strong performance, with the Southern Hong Kong Growth Flexible Fund achieving approximately 48% returns over the past year and 87% over two years, outperforming many volatile tech-focused funds [5]. - The article emphasizes the long-term attractiveness of the consumer sector, as evidenced by the performance of funds that prioritize quality and strategic stock selection [5].

证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 04 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 中药行业周报 中药饮片纳入全国统一药品追溯码体系正在加快推进 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 市场表现：上周中药Ⅱ下跌 1.67%，跌幅相对较小 根据 wind 数据，上周（2025.12.28-2026.01.03）医药生物报收 8084.61 点，下跌 2.06%；中药Ⅱ报收 6234.32 点，下跌 1.67%；化学制药报收 12742.31 点，下跌 2.34%；生物制品报收 6071.66 点，下跌 1.86%；医药商业报收 5280.19 点，下跌 2.68%；医疗器械报收 6302.86 点，下跌 2.33%；医疗服务报收 6273.96 点，下跌 1.4%。医药板块整体回调，中药板块跌幅相对较小。 从公司表现来看，根据 wind 数据，表现居前的公司有：万邦德、天目药业、 古汉医药、沃华医药、康惠股份；表现靠后的公司有：*ST 长药、ST 葫芦娃、 珍宝岛、众生药业、ST 百灵。 ❑ 估值：上周中药板块 PE（ttm）为 26.63X，PB（lf）为 2.24X 近期国家医保局发布《中药饮片追溯码编码规则》公开征求意见，《中 ...

报告导读： 2026年元旦假期，离岛免税购物热度持续走高，交通出行再创新高。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 2026旅游市场强劲开局，行业前景可期 ；报告日期：2026.01.04 报告作者： 刘越男（分析师），登记编号：S0880516030003 许樱之（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040012 重要提醒 2026年元旦假期国内出游1.42亿人次。 我们根据"文旅之声"官方微信公众号发布数据测算，2026年元旦假期游客数量、总花费与客单价较2024年均有提 升。根据文旅部公布的数据，2026年元旦假期3天，全国国内出游1.42亿人次，较2024年增长5.19%；国内出游总花费847.89亿元，较2024年增长 6.35%。平均客单价597.1元，较2024年增长1.1%。 离岛免税购物热度持续走高。 根据中国新闻网报道，据海口海关统计，2026年1月1日—2日，海口海关共监管海南离岛免税销售30.7万件，同比增长 48.3%；购物人数6.5万人次，同比增长60.9%；购物金额5.05亿元，同比增长121.5%。继2026年1月1日销售数据大涨后，1月2日延续涨势。海 ...

元旦"微度假"热度高 [Table_Authors] 李林芷(分析师) 国内高频指标跟踪（2026 年第 1 期） 本报告导读： 消费复苏动能较强，但投资、生产仍需政策进一步提振。 投资要点： | | 021-23185646 | | --- | --- | | | lilinzhi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040087 | | | 邵睿思(研究助理) | | | 010-83939827 | | | shaoruisi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880125070011 | | | 应镓娴(分析师) | | | 021-23185645 | | | yingjiaxian@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040060 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 金银铜续创新高，人民币汇率破 7 2025.12.28 消费温和改善 2025.12.28 内需有 ...

证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 4 日 湘财证券研究所 相关研究： | 1.《近期板块走强，关注零售百货 | | --- | | 业态变革》 2024.12.11 | | 2.《2024年社零总额增长3.5%，线 | | 下商超业态平稳复苏》2025.01.24 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 0.0 5.7 -10.4 绝对收益 0.0 5.5 12.3 -50.00% 0.00% 50.00% 沪深300 商贸零售(申万) 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：聂孟依 证书编号：S0500524040001 Tel：(8621) 50299667 Email：nmy06967@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路 88 号 中国人寿金融中心 10 楼 行业研究 商贸零售行业周报 元旦假期文旅消费数据出炉，关注相关零售产业链 核心要点： ❑ 商贸零售板块上周下跌 1.63% 根据 wind，上周，商贸零售报收 2422.59 点，下跌 1.63%，涨幅排名位列 申万一级行业第26位，跑输沪深300指数1.04个百分点；贸易Ⅱ报收4 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Insights - The consumption market shows strong growth during the New Year holiday, with significant increases in travel and spending among younger demographics [1][2][4] - The cross-year travel and ice-snow tourism are gaining popularity, with notable increases in ticket bookings and hotel reservations [2] - Hainan's duty-free sales doubled in the first two days of the New Year holiday, indicating robust consumer interest [3] - Various cities reported double-digit sales growth during the holiday, reflecting a vibrant consumption environment [4][7] Summary by Sections Travel Trends - High travel enthusiasm was noted during the New Year holiday, with a significant increase in ticket bookings and hotel reservations, particularly among younger travelers [1][2] - The search volume for "cross-year travel" increased by 125% year-on-year, with theme parks and concerts being major attractions [2] Duty-Free Sales - Hainan's duty-free sales reached 30.7 million items, with a 121.5% year-on-year increase in sales amounting to 5.05 billion yuan [3] - The sales in Sanya alone saw a remarkable increase, with sales amounting to 1.63 billion yuan on January 1, marking an 83.2% increase [3] Consumption Growth - Beijing's sales during the holiday reached 4.04 billion yuan, with a 16.3% year-on-year increase [4] - Shanghai reported an average daily consumption of 12.2 billion yuan, with online sales growing by 5.5% year-on-year [4] - Other cities like Qingdao and Nanjing also reported positive sales growth, indicating a broad recovery in consumer spending [4][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on Hainan and sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, cross-border e-commerce, and certain scenic spots [8] - It highlights the potential of new consumption trends and the importance of adapting to market changes in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected stocks within the sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a structural improvement in consumer spending, particularly in the liquor and mass-market product segments, with a strong recovery in consumption during the New Year holiday [1][2]. - The focus is on the market transformation of Moutai, which aims to enhance its market presence and adapt to consumer demands, while also emphasizing the importance of supply-side improvements and dividend strategies for long-term investments [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Moutai has initiated a market-oriented transformation, focusing on a consumer-centric approach and enhancing its product portfolio, including a pyramid structure for product offerings [3]. - The report suggests investing in both supply-side improvements and long-term leaders like Moutai and Wuliangye, with a positive outlook for gradual demand recovery in 2026 [3]. Mass-Market Products - The report notes a robust recovery in consumer spending during the New Year holiday, with significant growth in dining and dairy products, indicating a clear upward trend in both volume and price [1][2]. - Key companies to watch include Yili, Anjuke Foods, and Qingdao Beer, which are expected to benefit from this recovery [1]. Beer and Beverage Sector - The craft beer segment has seen over 100% growth in sales, while fruit-flavored beers have increased by over 70%, reflecting a trend among younger consumers [4]. - New product launches, such as the 1L juice from Uni-President, are positioned to attract consumers with competitive pricing and quality [4]. Consumer Behavior - The report emphasizes the high engagement in experiential consumption during the holiday season, with travel and shopping activities showing significant year-on-year growth [2][7]. - The report also highlights the impact of government-issued consumption vouchers in stimulating retail sales across major cities [7].