Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear report industry investment rating provided in the content [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On Tuesday, most of the opening prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures were slightly higher, but they declined in the morning and accelerated the decline in the afternoon, closing at a low level. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures main contracts (TL2509, T2509, TF2509, TS2509) fell by 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [1] - The short - term interest rate in the inter - bank capital market on Tuesday was lower than the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (1.36% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.47% (1.49% the previous day) [1] - The closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds on Tuesday were higher than the previous trading day. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 0.26 BP, 1.38 BP, 1.33 BP, and 2.20 BP respectively [1] - In June, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing investment was lower than expected and lower than that in May. The year - on - year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods was also lower than expected. However, export growth and industrial added value exceeded expectations [1] - Recently, domestic real estate sales and prices continued to decline, and China's economic growth in the second half of the year faces challenges, requiring continuous efforts to expand domestic demand [1] - The progress of the U.S. tariff negotiation postponed to August 1 is an important factor affecting the global financial market. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced on July 18 that multiple anti - involution and stable - growth policies will be introduced, which short - term increased market risk preference [1] - The stock index may adjust at any time after a short - term rapid increase, and the treasury bond futures main contract prices may rebound after a continuous significant decline. Short - term long - term treasury bond futures contracts may fluctuate widely, and short - term contracts may remain stable [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, most of the opening prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures were slightly higher, with a decline in the morning and an accelerated decline in the afternoon. The 30 - year (TL2509), 10 - year (T2509), 5 - year (TF2509), and 2 - year (TS2509) treasury bond futures main contracts fell by 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [1] Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 342.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits maturing [1] - Capital market: The short - term interest rate in the inter - bank capital market on Tuesday was lower than the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (1.36% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.47% (1.49% the previous day) [1] - Cash bond market: The closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds on Tuesday were higher than the previous trading day. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 0.26 BP, 1.38 BP, 1.33 BP, and 2.20 BP respectively [1] Market Logic - In June, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing investment was lower than expected and lower than that in May. The year - on - year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods was also lower than expected. However, export growth and industrial added value exceeded expectations [1] - Recently, domestic real estate sales and prices continued to decline, and China's economic growth in the second half of the year faces challenges, requiring continuous efforts to expand domestic demand [1] - The progress of the U.S. tariff negotiation postponed to August 1 is an important factor affecting the global financial market. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced on July 18 that multiple anti - involution and stable - growth policies will be introduced, which short - term increased market risk preference [1] - The stock index may adjust at any time after a short - term rapid increase, and the treasury bond futures main contract prices may rebound after a continuous significant decline. Short - term long - term treasury bond futures contracts may fluctuate widely, and short - term contracts may remain stable [1] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [2]

Economic Overview - The GDP of Zhaoqing City reached 135.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% at constant prices [2] - The primary industry added value was 17.5 billion yuan, growing by 4.8%; the secondary industry added value was 53.6 billion yuan, growing by 4.9%; and the tertiary industry added value was 64.6 billion yuan, growing by 5.6% [2] Agricultural Performance - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors achieved a total output value of 30.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [2] - Specific growth rates included planting (4.2%), forestry (6.5%), animal husbandry (4.8%), fishery (6.4%), and auxiliary activities (10.9%) [2] - Vegetable production reached 1.446 million tons, increasing by 3.1%; live pig output was 1.746 million heads, up by 7.1%; and total aquatic products amounted to 270,400 tons, growing by 4.4% [2] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value above designated size grew by 4.5% year-on-year [3] - Manufacturing and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries both grew by 4.6%, while mining decreased by 19.0% [3] - Notable growth in specific manufacturing sectors included electrical machinery (21.8%), automotive (20.2%), and computer and electronic equipment (15.6%) [3] - Newly established industrial enterprises showed remarkable performance with a 116.9% increase in added value, contributing 2.0 percentage points to overall industrial growth [3] - Advanced manufacturing increased by 17.6%, accounting for 39.0% of the industrial added value [3] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 60.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [4] - Retail sales of goods were 57.3 billion yuan, growing by 2.8%, while catering revenue was 3.52 billion yuan, increasing by 2.0% [4] - Urban retail sales were 48.0 billion yuan, up by 2.8%, and rural retail sales were 12.8 billion yuan, also growing by 2.8% [4] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted sales in home appliances and cultural office supplies, with increases of 152.6% and 77.3% respectively [4] - Online retail sales through public networks reached 12.3 billion yuan, growing by 10.9% [4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 8.8% year-on-year [4] - Infrastructure investment, however, grew by 10.0%, while construction and industrial investments fell by 1.2% and 11.8% respectively [4] - Real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 39.2%, with commercial housing sales area dropping by 37.9% [5] Financial Sector - By the end of June, the total balance of deposits was 411.4 billion yuan, increasing by 8.3% year-on-year, while the total balance of loans was 361.6 billion yuan, growing by 7.6% [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, with food prices down by 0.5% and non-food prices down by 0.8% [5]

Core Viewpoint - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's consumer market remains the second largest globally, with the total retail sales of consumer goods expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [1] Group 1: Economic Contribution - Consumption contributes approximately 60% to economic growth on average annually, indicating a significant role in supporting high-quality economic development in China [1]

Economic Performance - The GDP of Hunan Province reached 26,166.50 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, which is 0.2 percentage points faster than the first quarter [1] - The primary industry added value was 1,759.68 billion yuan, growing by 4.0% [1] - The secondary industry added value was 9,307.50 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.2% [1] - The tertiary industry added value was 15,099.32 billion yuan, increasing by 5.4% [1] Consumer and Investment Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in the province amounted to 10,391.81 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, which is 0.6 percentage points faster than the first quarter [1] - Fixed asset investment in the province grew by 2.6% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China are projected to increase from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 5.5% [1] Group 1 - In comparison to the United States, China's total retail sales last year were approximately 80% of the U.S. figure in absolute terms [1] - When adjusted for purchasing power parity, China's retail sales are equivalent to 1.6 times that of the United States, based on data and calculations provided by the World Bank [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese consumption market is expected to maintain its position as the world's second-largest, with retail sales projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan in 2023, reflecting a robust growth trajectory during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][4]. Group 1: Market Expansion - The scale of the market is expanding, with retail sales expected to grow from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, representing an average annual growth rate of 5.5% [1]. - China's retail sales are approximately 80% of the United States in absolute terms, but in terms of purchasing power, they exceed the U.S. by 60% [1]. Group 2: Quality Improvement - Quality consumption is becoming more prevalent, with 2.9 trillion yuan in sales driven by trade-in programs benefiting around 400 million people [2]. - Service consumption is growing rapidly, with an average annual increase of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024, outpacing goods consumption [2]. Group 3: New Consumption Trends - New consumption models are emerging, including digital consumption and quality e-commerce, supported by policies promoting innovation in the retail sector [3]. - The trade-in policy has significantly boosted smart home product consumption [3]. Group 4: Open Market Dynamics - The Chinese market is increasingly integrating with international markets, with a cumulative import of consumer goods reaching 7.4 trillion yuan from 2021 to 2024 [3]. - The number of countries with visa exemptions is expanding, and the tax refund policy for outbound tourists has been optimized, leading to a projected total expenditure of 94.2 billion USD by inbound tourists in 2024, a 77.8% increase [3]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The long-term fundamentals of the Chinese economy remain strong, with significant potential and resilience in the consumption market [4]. - The government plans to convert successful policies from the 14th Five-Year Plan into long-term measures while preparing targeted actions to stimulate consumption and enhance domestic demand [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's consumption market has maintained its position as the second largest globally since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a steady annual growth rate of 5.5% in social retail sales over the past four years [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China are expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [1]

Economic Overview - In the first half of the year, Beijing's GDP reached 25,029.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.5% at constant prices [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Beijing amounted to 6,734.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.8% [1] Sector Performance - Retail sales in the fashion and entertainment categories, such as gold and jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and cosmetics, grew by 36.1%, 9.3%, and 7.6% respectively [1] - Green and smart consumption categories, including home appliances and cultural office supplies, saw retail sales increase by 4.6% and 3.1% respectively due to the old-for-new consumption policy [1] - Basic living goods, such as grain and oil, and daily necessities, experienced year-on-year growth of 13.9% and 2.7% respectively [1] Consumption Trends - The decline in retail sales is attributed to insufficient effective demand, intense market competition, and changes in business models of some enterprises [2] - The automotive sector, particularly the fuel vehicle market, has seen a decrease in demand, leading to a decline in retail sales of automotive products and related petroleum products [2] Future Outlook - Beijing aims for an average annual growth of around 5% in total market consumption by 2030, with plans to establish 2-3 new consumption landmarks worth over 100 billion yuan [2] - The total market consumption, which includes both goods and services, is increasingly recognized as a more comprehensive measure of consumption vitality compared to traditional retail sales figures [3] - Service consumption in Beijing grew by 4.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year, driven by a strong demand for experiential consumption [3] - The overall growth rate of total market consumption in Beijing was modest at 0.9% year-on-year, prompting the release of 24 measures to stimulate consumption [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year, reaching 42,287 billion yuan. Excluding automobiles, the total retail sales were 37,649 billion yuan, also up by 4.8% year-on-year [5][6] - The growth rate of retail sales in essential consumer goods remains stable, with significant increases in categories such as grain and oil food (+8.7%) and daily necessities (+7.8%). However, beverages (-4.4%) and tobacco and alcohol (-0.7%) saw declines [16][29] - In the optional consumption category, jewelry (+6.1%) and communication equipment (+13.9%) showed strong growth, while cosmetics (-2.3%) and clothing and footwear (+1.9%) had modest increases [26][32] - Notably, retail sales in the home appliance and furniture categories grew significantly, with furniture sales up by 28.7% and home appliances by 32.4% [34][36] Summary by Sections Overall Data - The total retail sales of consumer goods in June reached 42,287 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%. Urban and rural retail sales were 36,559 billion yuan and 5,728 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 4.8% and 4.5% [5][6] Consumption Types - Retail sales in essential goods showed robust growth, while optional goods had mixed results. The total retail sales for limited enterprises in June were 18,327 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [9][12] - The retail sales for essential goods categories included grain and oil food (+8.7%), daily necessities (+7.8%), while beverages (-4.4%) and tobacco and alcohol (-0.7%) declined [16][29] - In optional consumption, jewelry and communication equipment categories performed well, with growth rates of 6.1% and 13.9%, respectively [26][32] - The home appliance and furniture sectors saw remarkable growth, with furniture sales increasing by 28.7% and home appliances by 32.4% [34][36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the retail sales of consumer goods in June 2025 reached CNY 42,287 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is below the consensus expectation of 5.56% [5][10] - The report indicates that the online retail sector is growing rapidly, while offline retail remains stable, with online sales increasing by 8.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [5][15] - The report emphasizes the impact of national subsidy policies on retail categories, with essential and discretionary goods showing continued growth [5][27] Summary by Sections Overall Retail Sales - In Q2 2025, retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with June showing a growth of 4.8%. The total retail sales for the first half of 2025 reached CNY 245,458 billion, marking a 5.0% increase [5][10] - Urban retail sales outpaced rural sales for four consecutive months, with urban sales in June at CNY 36,559 billion, growing by 4.8% year-on-year [12][10] By Category - Retail sales of goods outperformed the restaurant sector, with June's total for restaurant services at CNY 4,708 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while goods retail reached CNY 37,580 billion, growing by 5.3% [22][5] - The report notes that national subsidy policies are effectively driving growth in essential and discretionary categories, with June's year-on-year growth rates for essential and discretionary goods at 5.92% and 2.15%, respectively [27][29] Price Performance - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in June 2025, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6%, leading to an expanded PPI-CPI gap of -3.7% [33][36] - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with non-food prices showing a slight increase [35][36] Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June 2025, unchanged from the previous month [43][44] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the white liquor sector may see demand recovery due to expanding domestic demand policies, despite short-term weakness from a "ban on alcohol" [51] - It also recommends focusing on core leading companies in the cosmetics sector, which are expected to perform well due to strong domestic growth and increasing market share [51]