方伟看十年 . 独立投资人，前互联网创业者，产品经理；公关/广告勿扰，不接受任何形式的投资软文广告；所写即 所思，所思即所行 本文来自微信公众号： 方伟看十年 ，作者：方伟Rey，题图来自：AI生成 "总觉得苹果造车不容易，似乎很难像 iPhone 那样给用户提供好很多的消费体验。车的差异化有限， 苹果提供的价值不够，再热门也不会做。苹果公司文化很好，'如果不能给用户增加价值，他们就不 碰'，苹果推出产品的最重要的基点是'我到底能为用户做什么'，不会为了生意去做，这就是他们为什 么没有造车。" ——段永平 以下文章来源于方伟看十年 ，作者方伟Rey 听一个百度的产品经理回忆："记得移动互联网刚兴起时，我上班参与的第一个项目是在百度，李彦 宏说要做个语音助手，因为他有好多个助理，他要让用户每个人都有个助理。他无法共情其他人并没 有那么多事，也不需要助理提高效率，他们需要的是休息。" 感觉我快成了腾讯、拼多多、苹果股东的心灵按摩师。AI 作为第四次工业革命，影响确实是方方面 面的。每天来自于市场的噪音很大，很容易让人做出糊涂的判断，只有坚守常识，坚守价值，晚上才 能睡得着觉，不被噪音干扰。 抖音旗下的豆包周一的时 ...

点击 最 下方 关注《材料汇》 ， 点击"❤"和" "并分享 添加 小编微信 ，寻 志同道合 的你 正文 1 投资框架:当我们在谈新材料的时候,我们 到底在谈什么 当说投资新材料的时候,到底是在投什么 合金邮轮 木质帆船 蒸汽船 复合材料游艇 资料来源: Shutterstock , Borri, United Yacht,中国航海博物馆,天风证券研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 4 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 3 我们认为,投资新材料,投资的是未来新兴产业。材料工业是现代化工业体系的基石,每一轮技术革命都与 � 新材料的发现、发明和推广密不可分。发展战略性新兴产业和未来产业，其基础是先进材料产业; 我们认为,投资新材料,投资的是产业结构转型升级。从农业文明、到工业文明、再到信息文明,每一阶段 � 主导产业不同——从一个阶段发展到另外一个阶段，产业结构面临转型升级，而这又要有能与之匹配的新材 彩。 投资新材料,判断产业生命周期至关重要 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 投资新材料,判断产业生命周期至关重要 通常,处于导入期的新材料,产业化变数或较小 --- 产品形态基本定型、产 ...

01 按下"未来实验室"启动键 一座城区，如何变身为巨大的"未来实验室"？ 11月30日，在深圳宝安海滨广场，宝安与前海联手举办了一场大会，给出了一份硬核答案。 大会的名字挺长："岭航场景·粤进未来"场景赋能新质生产力专项行动——2025前海·宝安"宝景创享"场景对接大会 值得关注的是，宝安把场景创新视为长期战略。 近3年，宝安已累计组织641场对接活动，吸引超1.17万家企业参与，促成场景交易额超200亿元。 今年4月，宝安发布打造"场景全域开放标杆城区"工作框架，提出每年开放100个以上创新场景，发布1000项以上新技术、新产品，力争撬动应用金 额超1000亿元。 看到这里，相信大家可能会疑惑，如此大费周章地把整座城市搬上"货架"， 宝安到底在下一盘什么大棋？ 02 最稀缺的创新要素 这些科技感十足的应用场景，正是宝安打通新质生产力回归人本"最后一公里"的生动注脚。 得益于技术与需求的精准对接，大会吸引了760多家企业参会，超60家企业现场集中签约，促成政企、企业间达成合作意向300余宗，意向成交额突破百亿 元。 但核心就一句话：宝安、前海把全区500多个真实应用场景一次性全部打开，让科技公司有地方试、有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Professor Lin Yifu at the Fudan Chief Economist Forum highlights the potential economic challenges faced by developed countries, particularly the U.S., and emphasizes the need for China to focus on its own development to counter external pressures [1][5][12]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Developed countries are likely to experience a "lost 20 years" since the 2008 financial crisis, with the U.S. GDP growth rate declining from an average of 3.3% (1960-2008) to 2.1% (2008-2024) [5][7]. - The Eurozone's average growth rate has dropped from 3.1% (1960-2008) to 1.1% (2008-2024), indicating a significant slowdown [5][6]. - The U.S. stock market, exemplified by the Dow Jones index reaching over 46,000 points, suggests a potential bubble similar to the 2000 internet bubble and the 2008 housing market crash [10][11]. Group 2: U.S.-China Relations - The U.S. is likely to continue its strategy of suppressing China's growth due to its perception of China as a rising threat, particularly as China's GDP approaches that of the U.S. [12][13]. - The U.S. may reconsider its stance when China's per capita GDP reaches half of that of the U.S., which would signify a significant shift in economic power [13][14]. Group 3: China's Economic Potential - China has the potential for an 8% economic growth rate before 2035, driven by its "latecomer advantage" and the opportunities presented by the Fourth Industrial Revolution [18][19]. - The current per capita GDP of China is approximately one-fourth of that of the U.S., indicating a substantial room for growth [16][18]. Group 4: Factors Affecting Growth - The decline in China's actual growth rate is attributed to external pressures from the U.S. and a lack of economic confidence, rather than internal systemic issues [21][22]. - Misconceptions about the causes of economic slowdown, such as the belief that state-owned enterprises are crowding out private enterprises, need to be addressed to restore confidence [22][24]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - To achieve faster economic growth, China should adopt more aggressive monetary and fiscal policies, breaking away from traditional theoretical constraints that limit such actions [28][29]. - Historical examples demonstrate that proactive fiscal policies can effectively stimulate economic growth and should be leveraged to address current challenges [33].

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry is undergoing profound changes, with expectations for a more diversified asset class, varied performance benchmarks, digitalized service forms, and a more balanced funding structure by 2026 [1][6]. Group 1: Asset Class Diversification - Multi-asset investments are gaining importance, with equity funds expected to see new growth opportunities as the equity market rises [1][6]. - Passive investment strategies, including thematic and strategy-based ETFs, are likely to outpace the growth of broad-based indices [1][6]. - Fixed-income assets may expand due to the trend of "savings migration," despite potential fluctuations in yield levels [1][6]. Group 2: Performance Benchmark Guidance - The introduction of performance benchmark guidelines by the China Securities Regulatory Commission aims to diversify fund products from "all-purpose" to "functional" types [2][7]. - Active equity funds will adopt more diverse performance benchmarks, while thematic and sector-specific ETFs are expected to become growth drivers [2][7]. - New products like Smart Beta, floating rate funds, and public REITs will continue to expand, focusing on risk-return matching and investor interest alignment [2][7]. Group 3: Digital Transformation in Fund Management - The digitalization of investment management platforms and the application of intelligent tools in research and risk management are becoming industry standards [3][8]. - The integration of digital and intelligent upgrades across all operational aspects, including compliance and customer service, is anticipated [3][8]. - The penetration of customized portfolios through smart advisory services is expected to increase, with technology investment becoming a key competitive differentiator for fund companies [3][8]. Group 4: Changes in Client Behavior and Funding Sources - Initiatives to attract long-term funds are expected to increase the equity holdings of insurance and pension funds [4][9]. - The trend of "savings migration" will lead to a balanced inflow into bank wealth management, fixed-income, and multi-asset products [4][9]. - The new regulatory framework for securities and fund investment consulting is likely to enhance the wealth management capabilities of brokerages, particularly in the ETF market [4][9].

Global Manufacturing Industry Overview - In 2026, the global manufacturing sector is expected to exhibit a combination of structural differentiation and resilience, with overall growth projected to remain low, but significant disparities in growth across different sectors and regions [2] - The acceleration of technological iteration and structural transformation, driven by the fourth industrial revolution focusing on AI, industrial internet, and green energy, will push manufacturing towards smart, service-oriented, and low-carbon evolution [2][3] - Global supply chain restructuring and cost pressures will arise from geopolitical conflicts, trade protectionism, and carbon neutrality goals, leading companies to reassess their supply chain layouts [2][3] Investment Trends - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in global manufacturing is expected to see a slight rebound, but with increasing regional and sectoral differentiation, primarily driven by policy incentives and expansion in technology-intensive fields rather than a broad recovery [3] - Investment in strategic emerging industries will continue to increase as governments and companies aim to capture future industry leadership in areas like AI and quantum computing [3] - Traditional industries such as steel and cement will face contraction and consolidation due to environmental policy pressures, leading to capacity exits [3] Trade Dynamics - Global manufacturing trade will face dual challenges of total contraction and structural differentiation, with growth expected to be below 1% [4] - Trade protectionism will continue to impact the sector, with potential expansions in tariffs and export controls raising compliance costs for exporting companies [4] - Emerging trade networks, particularly South-South trade, will become growth highlights, while technology trade barriers will reshape competitive rules [4] Regional Economic Conditions - The EU is expected to maintain a moderate recovery, but with weakened growth momentum due to structural issues [5] - BRICS nations will show significant regional differentiation, with some economies leveraging structural advantages for growth while others face transformation challenges [6] - ASEAN economies will rely on labor dividends and regional cooperation for moderate growth, but disparities among member countries will widen [7] Major Economies - The US manufacturing sector is projected to continue its strong recovery, supported by government policies and market demand, although it faces challenges from high inflation and geopolitical tensions [9][10] - Germany's industrial sector is expected to maintain steady growth, bolstered by its core position in global supply chains and strong export capabilities, despite facing transformation pressures [11] - Japan's manufacturing is anticipated to experience moderate recovery, driven by digital economy expansion and government investments in strategic technologies, although it is constrained by demographic challenges [12] - South Korea is likely to sustain its position as a global manufacturing hub, particularly in semiconductors and electric vehicles, but must navigate risks related to market volatility and domestic consumption [13]

全球资本市场的目光，正密切注视着香港恒生指数的脉搏。作为亚洲重要的市场风向标，其走势不仅反 映本地经济活力，更深度镶嵌于错综复杂的全球宏观图景之中。当前，驱动恒生指数的外部基本面因 素，正经历一场深刻而多层次的演变。 一、全球货币政策周期的历史性转向 过去两年间，为应对数十年来未遇的高通胀压力，以美联储为首的主要央行开启了激进的加息缩表进 程。高企的利率环境极大地压制了成长型股票的估值，并促使国际资本从新兴市场向美元资产回流，这 对以科技股和金融股为权重股的恒生指数构成了持续的压力。 然而，这一紧缩周期已步入尾声。市场普遍预期，美联储的货币政策正从"限制性"向"中性"乃至"宽 松"缓慢过渡。一旦降息周期确认开启，全球流动性环境将迎来拐点。对于港元与美元挂钩的香港市场 而言，美债收益率的回落将直接减轻本地资产的估值压力，并为恒生指数提供最关键的流动性支撑。国 际资本有望重新配置估值处于历史相对低位的港股市场，这将是未来指数上行的重要引擎。 二、地缘政治格局的再平衡与风险溢价调整 地缘政治已成为影响市场不可或缺的变量。中美关系的动态，以及全球供应链的重构趋势，持续为市场 注入不确定性。一方面，某些领域的摩擦会阶段 ...

"资本结构变动推动了'重资产到轻资产、轻资产至重资本'全链条、全场景新模态的塑造。轻资产、重资本的时代金融叙事,与创投基金形成良好互动,创造了 诸多二级市场交易机会。"在11月19日开幕的"2025深圳国际金融大会"上，全国社会保障基金理事会原副理事长王忠民这样说。 这次由中国人民大学主办的会议，以"金融强国建设与大湾区高水平对外开放"为主题。"十五五"我国资本市场可能有哪些新变化？对未来有哪些新研判？在 会议上，原中国保险监督管理委员会副主席周延礼，中国人民大学原副校长吴晓求、王忠民等多位业内专家发表了主题演讲。 人工智能时代面临新挑战 吴晓求说，中国人均GDP已从1978年的150美元跃升至2025年的预计1.4万美元，逼近发达国家门槛。经济形态也由"短缺经济"转向"过剩经济"，约220个细 分行业面临产能过剩，仅少数领域存在供给缺口。这一转变要求理论与政策的重心从"扩大供给"转向"追求供需动态平衡"。 他进一步提到，以智能化为核心的第四次工业革命自2010年左右兴起，其发展高度依赖于算力、算法和大数据三大核心要素。得益于在第三次工业革命中打 下的信息产业与互联网坚实基础，以及新能源发展为算力基础设施提供 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights that China is surpassing the United States in scientific research output and certain cutting-edge fields, indicating a potential end to the dominance of Silicon Valley and top U.S. universities in shaping the future of science [1] Research Output Comparison - In 2024, Chinese researchers published 1.1 million papers compared to 880,000 from the U.S., showing an expanding gap in research output [1] - In the medical field, China's share of published papers rose from 40% in 2023 to over 50% in 2024 [1] - China leads in energy research, accounting for approximately 35% of global publications in this area [1] Quality of Research - China is not only leading in quantity but also in high-quality research output, as indicated by patent filings and other metrics [1] Influence on Other Countries - China's rise in scientific research is becoming a model for other countries, particularly Vietnam, which aims to significantly increase R&D investment to replicate China's past successes [1] Vietnam's R&D Plans - Vietnam plans to establish five tech companies valued at $1 billion by 2025 and ten by 2030, with R&D investment expected to reach 1.5% of GDP by 2025 [3] - However, as of 2023, Vietnam's R&D investment was only 0.43% of GDP, indicating challenges in innovation [3] Emerging Technologies - China is making significant contributions in key future technology areas, including green nitrogen fixation, next-generation nuclear energy, and generative watermarking technology [5] - The World Economic Forum's collaboration with the journal "Frontiers" highlights these technologies as critical for the next five to ten years [5] Publishing Infrastructure - The increasing number of Chinese universities and publishers launching their own journals and platforms is seen as a natural evolution to support the growing research output [5] - The journal "Frontiers" is adopting AI tools to enhance efficiency in scientific publishing, predicting a fundamental transformation in the field within five years [5]

Group 1: Overseas Macro Strategy - The end of the US government shutdown and hawkish signals from some Fed officials led to a slight increase in US Treasury yields, while gold initially rose before falling, and the US dollar slightly retreated [2] - The US stock market is expected to transition from a phase driven by both earnings and valuation to one primarily driven by corporate earnings growth, amidst increased market volatility [2] - Over 80% of S&P 500 companies exceeded earnings expectations in the third quarter, providing market support despite high valuations [2] - The narrative surrounding AI's potential to drive a fourth industrial revolution is yet to be validated, suggesting a need for cautious adjustment of annual return expectations to single-digit levels [2] - A diversified investment strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors such as industrials, utilities, energy, and healthcare, in addition to technology stocks [2] Group 2: US Treasury Bonds - Short-term market focus is on upcoming US economic data, although the validity of data during the government shutdown is limited [3] - Medium to long-term outlook suggests a downward shift in the central tendency of Treasury yields, with a continuation of a bull steepening yield curve [3] - Investors are advised to maintain positions in 2-5 year Treasury bonds, with long-term bonds recommended for purchase when the 10-year yield exceeds 4.2% [3] Group 3: Currency and Gold - The US dollar lacks fundamental support to stabilize above the 100 mark, with expectations of downward pressure due to a loose trading environment [3] - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate slightly, influenced by the Fed's rate cut cycle and easing US-China trade tensions [3] - Gold is in a short-term adjustment phase but remains bullish in the long term, with expectations of continued Fed rate cuts and ongoing central bank gold purchases [4] Group 4: Domestic Macro Strategy - Domestic economic pressures are increasing, with significant declines in real estate transaction volumes and prices, particularly in first-tier cities [6] - Financial growth has slowed, with a decrease in both public and private financing demand, and a drop in the growth rate of RMB loans to 6.5% [6] - Export dynamics remain stable, with a 6.3% year-on-year increase in average cargo throughput in October, indicating resilience in certain export categories [7] - Recent government meetings have focused on enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, signaling a shift towards a more balanced policy approach [7] Group 5: Monetary Policy and Bonds - The central bank's monetary policy report indicates a focus on optimizing structural tools and emphasizing price-based regulation over quantity targets [8] - The bond market is expected to maintain a low-volatility, oscillating trend, with the 10-year Treasury yield stabilizing around 1.8% [9] - The outlook for the bond market suggests a steep yield curve, with a central tendency around 1.8% and potential fluctuations between 1.6% and 1.9% [10] Group 6: A-shares and Hong Kong Market - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3990 points, influenced by weak economic data and reduced Fed rate cut expectations [10] - The Hong Kong market showed a 1.26% increase in the Hang Seng Index, with expectations of continued upward movement post-adjustment [11] - The overall outlook for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks remains cautiously optimistic, with anticipated liquidity improvements and positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [11]