Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View of the Report The report predicts that the pure benzene futures 2603 contract is likely to decline and difficult to rise, and may continue the weak oscillation pattern in the short term due to the US federal government's "shutdown", the significant decline in international crude oil prices, the expected increase in domestic and foreign pure benzene supply, and the weak downstream demand [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Supply Situation - External systemic risks have put pressure on crude oil prices, weakening the cost support for pure benzene and causing the price of the 2603 contract to decline [2]. - The US tariff war has changed the global petrochemical trade pattern. South Korea has shifted its export focus to Asia, especially China. China's pure benzene imports are expected to rise again in the short term [2]. - Domestic pure benzene supply is increasing. The output of petroleum benzene is rising steadily, and the overall supply pattern of pure benzene remains loose [3]. Demand Situation - The downstream demand for pure benzene is weak. The procurement demand from the largest consumer, styrene, has decreased, and other downstream industries are generally in a loss state, making it difficult to reverse the weak demand situation [3]. Inventory Situation - Due to the weak supply - demand situation, the domestic pure benzene inventory remains high. Although the inventory in East China ports has decreased, it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year [3].

2025.10. 14 景顺亚太区全球市场策略师赵耀庭对第一财经记者分析称，即使黄金已达历史高点，且脱离了美元与 实际利率等传统估值驱动因素，价格看起来已经偏高，其涨势仍有延续的可能。但鉴于黄金在历史上 并未提供类似股票的实质回报潜力（或债券的下行保护），投资者在配置时仍需谨慎控制规模。 上车机会稍纵即逝 金价持续上涨，投资者不禁感叹，尽管知道黄金处于上行周期中，但是知易行难，跟上节奏并不容 易。 FOMO（Fear of Missing Out）"害怕错过"，不少年轻投资者用这个标签表达自己在当前黄金投 资热潮的矛盾心理。 本文字数：2501，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 在最近的一个交易周（10月6日~10月14日）里，国际金价只休息了一天，便再次发起进攻。 10月14日，国际黄金期货和现货价格再次齐创新高，分别盘中最高触及每盎司4190美元、4179美 元。 "没想到休息两天是为了更大的冲刺。"投资者齐女士在盘后感叹，"原本以为会开启一轮回调，想等 等再补仓，结果一犹豫就高攀不起了。"她的感慨代表了不少市场参与者的心声。自9月以来，金价 已累计上涨超19%，而白银涨幅更是达到23%，成为 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Tuesday. The price center of the contract moved down to around 14,850 yuan/ton during the session, and closed 0.97% lower at 14,845 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread converged to 15 yuan/ton. With the rubber market returning to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure and weak macro - expectations, the contract is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [5]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weakening, and significantly closing lower on Tuesday. The contract price rose to a maximum of 2,345 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,255 yuan/ton, closing 2.61% lower at 2,274 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread converged to 26 yuan/ton. Suppressed by the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol, the contract is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Tuesday. The contract price rose to a maximum of 456.1 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 447.6 yuan/barrel, closing 0.90% lower at 449.6 yuan/barrel. Due to the continuous shutdown of the US federal government, Trump's resumption of the trade tariff war, the occurrence of systematic risks, the continued production increase of OPEC + oil - producing countries, and the possible end of the Israel - Palestine conflict in the Middle East leading to the return of geopolitical premiums, the contract is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 456,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons or 0.11% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 70,800 tons, an increase of 2.02%, and the general trade inventory was 385,200 tons, a decrease of 0.49%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse of the Qingdao natural rubber sample increased by 3.74 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.40 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 4.11 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 4.91 percentage points [9]. - From October 3 - 9, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a decrease of 17.50 percentage points from the previous period (September 26 - October 2, 2025) and a decrease of 36.62 percentage points year - on - year. Some semi - steel tire sample enterprises arranged shutdown for maintenance during the holiday, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a decrease of 13.83 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 0.78 percentage points year - on - year. Some all - steel tire sample enterprises arranged shutdown for maintenance during the holiday, dragging down the capacity utilization rate [9]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index expanded steadily, with the new order index of logistics enterprises at 53.3%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month, and it remained in the high - prosperity range of over 52% for four consecutive months [10]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20%, laying a foundation for the annual total sales target of 1.1 million vehicles [10]. Methanol - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82%, and a slight decrease of 1.39% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.033 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 160,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 113,700 tons, and a significant increase of 156,200 tons compared with 1.8768 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.98%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.20%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The acetic acid operating rate was 81.65%, a week - on - week increase of 5.03%. The MTBE operating rate was 57.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 87.97%, a week - on - week increase of 4.94 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 8.42% [11]. - As of October 10, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 146 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 127 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.273 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,700 tons, and a significant increase of 369,900 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of September 25, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 320,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,500 tons, and a significant decrease of 116,900 tons compared with 436,900 tons in the same period last year [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 422, a week - on - week decrease of 2 and a decrease of 57 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.629 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 124,000 barrels per day and a significant increase of 429,000 barrels per day year - on - year [13]. - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 420.3 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.715 million barrels and a slight decrease of 2.48 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.704 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 763,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 407 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 285,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 92.4%, a week - on - week increase of 1.0 percentage point, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5 percentage points, and a slight increase of 5.7 percentage points year - on - year [13]. - Since October 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a downward trend under pressure, and the bullish power in the market has continued to shrink. Due to the US government shutdown, the release of government department data was postponed. As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts or 15.65% compared with the average in August. As of October 10, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 141,656 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 60,824 contracts and a significant decrease of 74,699 contracts or 34.53% compared with the average in September [14]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from the Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from the Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,250 yuan/ton | - 300 yuan/ton | 14,845 yuan/ton | - 95 yuan/ton | - 595 yuan/ton | + 95 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,300 yuan/ton | - 22 yuan/ton | 2,274 yuan/ton | - 68 yuan/ton | + 26 yuan/ton | + 46 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 430.4 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 449.6 yuan/barrel | - 5.4 yuan/barrel | - 19.2 yuan/barrel | + 5.5 yuan/barrel | [16] 3. Related Charts - The report mentions related charts for rubber (such as rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, semi - steel tire operating rate trend), methanol (such as methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, coal - to - methanol cost accounting), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, Brent crude oil net position change), but no specific chart analysis content is provided [17][19][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the digestion of typhoon - related positive factors and a weak supply - demand structure under a weak macro - economic outlook [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract will face significant resistance in further rebounds due to the weak supply - demand fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to factors such as the US government shutdown, trade tariff wars, OPEC+ production increases, and the possible end of the Israel - Palestine conflict [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 45.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.47 million tons (1.01%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory remained unchanged, while the general trade inventory decreased by 1.18%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.50 percentage points. For general trade warehouses, the inbound rate increased by 1.98 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 3.11 percentage points [8]. - From October 3 - 9, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a decrease of 17.50 percentage points from the previous period and 36.62 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a decrease of 13.83 percentage points from the previous period and 0.78 percentage points year - on - year, mainly due to holiday shutdowns for maintenance [8]. - The logistics industry prosperity index in China in September 2025 was 51.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index of logistics enterprises was 53.3%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month, remaining above 52% for four consecutive months [9]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a slight decrease of 1% from July and an increase of about 35% from the same period last year. The cumulative sales in the first eight months of 2025 reached 710,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.38%, a slight increase of 0.87% week - on - week, a slight decrease of 0.82% month - on - month, and a slight decrease of 1.39% compared to the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production was 2.033 billion tons, a significant increase of 160,300 tons week - on - week, 113,700 tons month - on - month, and 156,200 tons compared to the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.98%, a slight decrease of 0.43% week - on - week; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.20%, a slight increase of 0.01% week - on - week; the acetic acid operating rate was 81.65%, a slight increase of 5.03% week - on - week; the MTBE operating rate was 57.89%, a slight decrease of 0.46% week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 87.97%, a slight increase of 4.94 percentage points week - on - week and 8.42% month - on - month. The futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 146 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 14 yuan/ton week - on - week and 127 yuan/ton month - on - month [10]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.273 billion tons, a slight increase of 49,000 tons week - on - week, 57,000 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 369,900 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the week of September 25, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 320,000 tons, a slight decrease of 20,500 tons week - on - week, 13,500 tons month - on - month, and a significant decrease of 116,900 tons compared to the same period last year [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 422, a slight decrease of 2 week - on - week and a decrease of 57 compared to the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels, a significant increase of 124,000 barrels per day week - on - week and 429,000 barrels per day year - on - year [13]. - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) was 420.3 million barrels, a significant increase of 3.715 million barrels week - on - week and a slight decrease of 2.48 million barrels compared to the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.704 million barrels, a slight decrease of 763,000 barrels week - on - week; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 407 million barrels, a slight increase of 285,000 barrels week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was 92.4%, a slight increase of 1.0 percentage point week - on - week, a slight decrease of 2.5 percentage points month - on - month, and a slight increase of 5.7 percentage points year - on - year [13]. - Since October 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a downward trend. As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 102,958 contracts, a significant increase of 4,249 contracts week - on - week but a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts (15.65%) compared to the August average. As of October 10, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 141,656 contracts, a significant decrease of 60,824 contracts week - on - week and 74,699 contracts (34.53%) compared to the September average [14]. 2. Spot Price Table - For Shanghai rubber, the spot price was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the futures main contract price was 14,940 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan/ton from the previous day; the basis was - 340 yuan/ton, up 425 yuan/ton [16]. - For methanol, the spot price was 2,262 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the futures main contract price was 2,342 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous day; the basis was - 80 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [16]. - For crude oil, the spot price was 442.6 yuan/barrel, down 0.2 yuan/barrel from the previous day; the futures main contract price was 455.0 yuan/barrel, down 6.9 yuan/barrel from the previous day; the basis was - 12.4 yuan/barrel, up 6.7 yuan/barrel [16]. 3. Relevant Charts - The report provides relevant charts for rubber, including rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, etc.; for methanol and crude oil, relevant charts are also provided but specific details are mainly about the chart names [17][19][21]

Core Insights - The global trade and geopolitical order continues to face challenges since the Trump administration, leading to increased investor interest in gold as a hedge against systemic risks [1][2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is entering a rate-cutting cycle, with high valuations in U.S. equities and concerns over potential AI bubbles and rising U.S. debt, prompting investors to increase gold holdings [1][2] Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased, but concerns over a U.S. government shutdown and its impact on economic activity have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold, which has reached a historical high of $4,000 per ounce [1] - The U.S. federal government faced a shutdown, leading to operational disruptions and delays in agricultural subsidies, which may cause market volatility when key economic data is eventually released [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - Despite ongoing inflation pressures, rising unemployment rates, and recession concerns, investors are increasingly turning to gold and other value-preserving assets [2] - Recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes indicate a consensus among officials for further rate cuts by year-end, enhancing market expectations and boosting gold performance [2] - Historical data shows a correlation between the speed of rate cuts and the rapid increase in gold prices, with gold outperforming other assets during such periods [2] Group 3: Central Bank Actions and Demand - Central banks are structurally increasing their gold reserves to reduce reliance on dollar-denominated assets, with the People's Bank of China purchasing gold for 11 consecutive months, indicating a strategic buying trend [2] - The recent surge in gold ETF inflows reflects a collaborative effect between institutional and retail investors, with central bank demand being a major catalyst for record gold price increases [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the outbreak of systematic risks, the bearish sentiment quickly spread, causing the domestic rubber futures to decline under pressure last Friday. Against the backdrop of a significant increase in global financial market risk - aversion sentiment and weakening macro - factors, after the positive impact of the typhoon was digested, the rubber market returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot price slightly increased, and basis discount converged**: In the week of October 10, 2025, the spot reference price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) oscillated around 14,550 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 250 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The basis between the spot and the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract showed a slightly converged discount, reaching a discount of 765 yuan/ton by the end of the week [8]. - **Systematic risks emerged, and rubber weakened**: Trump restarted the tariff war targeting China, and the US government shutdown led to a collective decline in the peripheral financial markets last Friday. Domestic rubber futures declined under pressure. The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract dropped 2.05% to 15,045 yuan/ton, the standard rubber futures 2512 contract dropped 3.19% to 12,005 yuan/ton, and the synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract dropped 2.50% to 10,920 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.2 2025 Third - Quarter Global Rubber Market Supply - Demand Improvement - **Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries' output slightly increased, and consumption slightly decreased**: From May to November, domestic and overseas rubber - producing areas enter the tapping season. In August 2025, ANRPC member countries' total rubber production was 1.0787 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,200 tons (1.84% decline). From January to August 2025, the total production was 6.8536 million tons, a slight increase of 65,000 tons (0.96% increase) compared to the same period last year. In August 2025, the total rubber consumption was 899,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44,200 tons (4.68% decline). From January to August 2025, the total consumption was 7.1751 million tons, a significant decrease of 267,600 tons (3.60% decline) compared to the same period last year. With normal tapping in Southeast Asian countries and a slight decline in global rubber demand, rubber prices may face pressure in the future [24]. - **China's rubber imports slightly increased in August 2025**: China's natural rubber import dependence is about 80%. In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a year - on - year increase of 48,000 tons (7.8% increase). From January to August 2025, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 859,000 tons (19.03% increase) [32]. - **Domestic tire production and sales were booming, and the industry's operating rate decreased week - on - week**: In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 102.954 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Tire exports were strong, with semi - steel tire exports reaching 325,900 tons, a record high. From January to August 2025, China's tire exports were 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. However, the operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased week - on - week due to holiday maintenance [35][36]. - **China's automobile production and sales increased significantly year - on - year in August 2025**: In August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.815 million and 2.857 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13% and 16.4%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6%. In August 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 27.4% and 26.8%. The inventory warning index of automobile dealers was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the industry's prosperity. The logistics industry was in a good state, and the heavy - truck market had a five - consecutive - month increase in sales [39]. - **SHFE warehouse receipts decreased significantly, and Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory decreased slightly**: By the week of October 10, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures inventory and registered warehouse receipts decreased significantly week - on - week. As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 456,500 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons (1.01% decline) compared to the previous period [53]. 3.3 Conclusion - With the global financial market risk - aversion sentiment rising, risk assets are under pressure, and macro - factors are weakening. After the positive impact of the typhoon is digested, the rubber market returns to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [56].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view is that both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly. For Shanghai rubber 2601 and synthetic rubber 2512, the short - term view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is downward, and the intraday view is downward [1]. - Systemic risks have emerged, with President Trump restarting the tariff war targeting China and the US bipartisan deadlock leading to a government shutdown, which has caused negative sentiment to spread and put pressure on rubber and synthetic rubber futures [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Friday, the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract fell significantly by 2.05% to 15,045 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The 2601 contract's moving averages maintain a bearish trend. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Friday, the domestic synthetic rubber 2512 contract fell significantly by 2.77% to 10,890 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber 2512 contract will maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend on Monday [6].

2025 年 10 月 13 日 白糖：重视系统性风险 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 16.1 | -0.15 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 27 | -9 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5840 | 0 | 59 价差（元/吨） | -3 | -6 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5496 | -32 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 344 | 32 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：美股、原油大跌，黄金、白银上涨，避险氛围增强，重视系统系风险。继"桦加沙"之后，台 风"麦德姆"再次影响广东和广西，同时广西产区发生洪水。巴西 9 月上半月食糖产量同比大幅增加 16%。 截至 9 月 30 日，印度季风降水量较 LPA 高 7.9%。巴西出口下降，引发对于全球消费的担忧。巴西 9 月出口 325 万吨，同比减少 16% ...

就比如，weth在16号就要修改预言机机制了，要是以后币安修改usde预言机下限，那不是都打脸了？所以，币安没有提前考虑到大量循环贷会触发系统性风险，这不就是草台班子嘛？毕竟链上已经多次出现循环贷系统性风险的案例了，当然，也可以阴谋论说币安是故意让usde出现风险，但是我觉得这种想法真的很蠢。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak - oscillating trend as the bullish factors of the typhoon are digested and the market returns to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure under a weak macro - expectation [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak - oscillating trend due to the suppression of the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract may maintain a weak - oscillating trend because of the US federal government shutdown, OPEC+ production increase, and the potential end of the Palestine - Israel conflict leading to the loss of geopolitical premium [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 45.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.47 million tons (1.01%) from the previous period. Bonded area inventory remained flat, while general trade inventory decreased by 1.18%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.50 percentage points; for general trade warehouses, the inbound rate increased by 1.98 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 3.11 percentage points [8]. - From October 3 - 9, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a decrease of 17.50 percentage points from the previous period and 36.62 percentage points year - on - year. For full - steel tire sample enterprises, it was 41.53%, a decrease of 13.83 percentage points from the previous period and 0.78 percentage points year - on - year, due to holiday shutdowns for maintenance [8]. - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, up 0.8 percentage points year - on - year and down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry prosperity index in August 2025 was 50.9%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles in August 2025, a 1% decrease from July and a 35% increase from the previous year. The cumulative sales in the first 8 months of 2025 reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% increase year - on - year [9]. Methanol - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.38%, a slight increase of 0.87% week - on - week, a slight decrease of 0.82% month - on - month, and a 1.39% decrease from the previous year. The weekly average methanol output was 2.033 billion tons, a significant increase of 160,300 tons week - on - week, 113,700 tons month - on - month, and 156,200 tons from the previous year [10]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.98%, a slight decrease of 0.43% week - on - week; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.20%, a slight increase of 0.01% week - on - week; the acetic acid operating rate was 81.65%, a 5.03% increase week - on - week; the MTBE operating rate was 57.89%, a slight decrease of 0.46% week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 87.97%, a 4.94 - percentage - point increase week - on - week and an 8.42 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 146 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 14 yuan/ton week - on - week and 127 yuan/ton month - on - month [10]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.273 billion tons, a slight increase of 49,000 tons week - on - week, 57,000 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 369,900 tons from the previous year. As of the week of September 25, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 320,000 tons, a slight decrease of 20,500 tons week - on - week, 13,500 tons month - on - month, and a significant decrease of 116,900 tons from the previous year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 422, a slight decrease of 2 from the previous week and a decrease of 57 from the previous year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels, a significant increase of 124,000 barrels per day week - on - week and 429,000 barrels per day year - on - year [11]. - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) was 420.3 million barrels, a significant increase of 3.715 million barrels week - on - week and a slight decrease of 2.48 million barrels from the previous year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.704 million barrels, a slight decrease of 763,000 barrels week - on - week. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 407 million barrels, a slight increase of 285,000 barrels week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was 92.4%, a 1.0 - percentage - point increase week - on - week, a 2.5 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, and a 5.7 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [12]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 102,958 contracts, a significant increase of 4,249 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts (15.65%) from the August average. As of September 30, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 202,480 contracts, a significant decrease of 9,903 contracts week - on - week and a slight increase of 162 contracts (0.08%) from the August average [12]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,550 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 15,315 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | - 765 yuan/ton | + 0 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,252 yuan/ton | + 2 yuan/ton | 2,307 yuan/ton | + 17 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 451.4 yuan/barrel | + 0.3 yuan/barrel | 461.9 yuan/barrel | - 9.1 yuan/barrel | - 10.5 yuan/barrel | + 9.5 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report includes charts such as rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][23]. - Methanol: The report includes charts such as methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][33]. - Crude Oil: The report includes charts such as crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [41][43][45].