—— 从债务螺旋到全球金融震荡的深度解析 一、37 万亿美元的悬崖：数据背后的生死时速 当地时间 8 月 12 日，美国国债总额首次突破 37 万亿美元，较美国国会预算办公室 2020 年预测的时间 线整整提前了 5 年。这一数字相当于美国 2024 年 GDP 的 1.27 倍，若以 3.42 亿总人口计算，平均每个 美国人背负 10.8 万美元债务，折合人民币近 80 万元。更致命的是，美债正以每 5 个月增加 1 万亿美元 的速度膨胀，远超过去 25 年平均增速的两倍。 1. 利息吞噬财政的恶性循环 2024 财年，美国国债利息支出达 1.133 万亿美元，首次超过国防预算（8735 亿美元）和老年医疗保险 支出（8741 亿美元），占财政收入的 18.7%，远超 15% 的国际警戒线。桥水基金创始人瑞・达利欧警 告，这种 "发新债还旧息" 的模式已形成 "死亡螺旋"—— 更高的利息支出迫使美国财政部发行更多债 券，而投资者因风险激增要求更高收益率，进一步推高融资成本。 2. 债务上限的政治游戏 尽管美债规模已突破 36.1 万亿美元的法定上限，但两党仍在 "提高上限" 问题上僵持不下。财政部现金 储备 ...

为了在激烈的关税战中稳住美国经济的基盘，特朗普必须依赖美联储的货币政策，首先要确保降息顺利推进。尽管鲍威尔还继续担任美联储主席，但他配合 的降息举措似乎进展缓慢，特朗普对此颇为不满。除此之外，美国吸引外资的能力也十分关键，毕竟各国投资者的资金汇聚是美国经济稳定的重要保障。最 后，尽管关税对各国产品进入美国市场构成了一定的障碍，但这些因素加在一起，似乎远远不及美债问题带来的沉重负担。因此，特朗普要想解决当前困 境，必须加速推进国内外经济政策的调整。 多方迹象表明，近期美俄领导人的会晤目标并非单纯地寻求停火，而是通过达成一种稳定的框架来缓解乌克兰危机，并为最终结束该冲突创造条件。从美国 的角度来看，这一战略有两个明显的利益点：首先，通过加剧东欧局势，美国能够持续牵制欧洲，恶化俄罗斯与欧盟、中欧之间的关系，并通过军售和援助 乌克兰来消耗俄罗斯的力量；其次，俄罗斯如果希望在未来换取一定的制裁放宽，就必须在与朝鲜、伊朗等国家的地缘政治合作中作出妥协，同时分割国际 能源市场的利益。这一系列操作不仅可以继续打击俄罗斯，还能够为美国在全球战略布局中赢得更多筹码。 在这一过程中，尽管俄欧之间的冲突可能依旧未能得到彻底解决，但却 ...

Group 1 - The total amount of US national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, indicating a significant increase in debt levels and suggesting that future growth is likely [1] - The ratio of US debt to GDP is projected to be 126.8% in 2024, raising concerns about potential debt crises, although the US has unique advantages compared to Greece due to its ability to print its own currency [1][2] - The US has two main strategies to manage its debt: selling bonds to foreign central banks and investors, and printing more dollars, which could lead to inflation [1][2] Group 2 - The accumulation of US debt is not without risks, as the credibility of the dollar is crucial for maintaining investor confidence [2] - The Federal Reserve's actions, such as interest rate hikes, are intended to support the dollar's credibility but may inadvertently accelerate debt accumulation [3] - The US government's inability to reduce spending and the rising interest on debt are contributing to the increasing debt burden [3] Group 3 - The Trump administration's policies have weakened the foundations of dollar credibility, impacting the US's global influence and economic stability [4][5] - Trade policies aimed at reducing deficits may undermine the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, leading to potential challenges in selling US debt [5][6] - The rise of alternative currencies and assets, such as digital currencies and gold, poses a challenge to the dollar's dominance [6][7] Group 4 - The current strategy of the US to address its debt issues involves leveraging its position to pressure other countries, potentially leading to a loss of confidence in the dollar [8][9] - Central banks are encouraged to adapt to the changing environment by diversifying their reserves away from US debt and dollars into other valuable assets [9]

王爷说财经讯：你敢相信？美国国债刚突破37万亿美元大关！ 相当于每个美国人背债10.7万美元，能买两辆特斯拉Model Y！如果把这些钱换成1美元纸 币，绕地球赤道能缠14圈！ 特朗普紧急呼吁美联储降息，但这能救美债吗？这颗金融核弹会不会突然爆雷？ 今天我们就一起来撕开美债的真相——美国靠什么'躺着还钱'？爆雷后，中国和全球经济会怎样？ 别眨眼，这场大戏关乎每个人的钱包！ 8月13日消息，最近美国国债再次突破历史新高，即：美国国债首次突破37万亿，远超GDP的114%，债务增速远超经济承载力。 另外，数据还显示，美国政府靠'借新还旧'维持，利息支出已超军费，2025年光付息就需1.2万亿美元（占财政收入的26.5%）。 最后一点，如果美联储大幅降息，这可能会动摇美国以及美元在全球信任度，因为美元信用依赖美债安全，若政策混乱，投资者或加速抛售美债。 最后一个问题：美债会爆雷吗？影响如何？ 就短期来看，美债爆雷的风险低！因为美元霸权+美联储操作（如量化宽松）可暂时续命，但长期依赖"借新还旧"不可持续。 不过，如果一旦投资者信心崩塌，如评级再降、外国大规模抛售美债、利率飙升或财政失控，可能触发连锁反应。 值得一提的 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, approximately 120% of GDP, significantly exceeding the international warning threshold of 60% [1] - By 2025, $9.2 trillion of this debt will mature, requiring daily repayments of about $25 billion, putting immense pressure on the U.S. fiscal situation [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes have led to a surge in interest payments, projected to reach $1.3 trillion in 2024, surpassing the defense budget [3] Group 2 - The foreign ownership of U.S. debt has dropped to 30%, the lowest in 20 years, indicating a loss of confidence among global investors [3] - Efforts by the Trump administration to reduce fiscal pressure through budget cuts and tax increases have been largely ineffective, with only minor reductions achieved [3][4] - Trump's extreme measures, including public disputes and controversial statements, have intensified political divisions and raised concerns about the legitimacy of U.S. foreign policy [4] Group 3 - Both China and Japan have shown signs of reducing their holdings of U.S. debt, with China decreasing its holdings by $18.9 billion and Japan reportedly transferring $200 billion to offshore accounts [4][5] - The Trump administration's attempts to exert control over the Federal Reserve and its leadership could have long-term implications for the credibility of the U.S. dollar [5] - The combination of high debt, high interest rates, and high tariffs has created a "death triangle," leading to economic slowdown and increased volatility in financial markets [7] Group 4 - The ongoing debt crisis has prompted discussions about the potential decline of U.S. global dominance and the rise of alternative financial systems, particularly among BRICS nations [5][7] - The current economic environment mirrors pre-2008 financial crisis conditions, raising alarms about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies [7] - The effectiveness of Trump's strategies to address the debt crisis remains uncertain, with deeper systemic issues still unaddressed [7]

Group 1 - The core issue is the astronomical U.S. debt of $36.8 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, which is equivalent to the economic output of two Canadas [1] - The U.S. debt has surged from $33 trillion to $36.8 trillion in just six months, marking a historic growth rate, with an increase of $2 billion daily [1][39] - The U.S. government has struggled to implement effective measures to manage this debt, facing resistance from various interest groups and political challenges [4][6] Group 2 - Trump's initial strategies to reduce spending, such as cutting military expenses and welfare, faced significant pushback from military contractors and Congress, leading to minimal savings [4][6] - Efforts to increase revenue through tariffs on imports have not yielded the desired results, as trade deficits remained unchanged and retaliatory measures from other countries exacerbated the situation [10][11][13] - The Federal Reserve, holding $7.5 trillion in U.S. debt, has resisted Trump's calls for interest rate cuts, further complicating the debt repayment situation [15][27] Group 3 - The U.S. is caught in a vicious cycle of borrowing to pay interest, with rising interest rates making it increasingly difficult to manage debt [17][39] - Trump's public accusations against government data integrity, including claims of falsified employment statistics, have raised concerns about the credibility of U.S. economic data [31][33] - The erosion of institutional credibility could lead to significant shifts in global capital flows, with countries like China reducing their holdings of U.S. debt [35][37] Group 4 - The International Monetary Fund has warned that U.S. debt risks are nearing critical levels, with potential implications for global financial markets [39] - Moody's analysis suggests that the U.S. debt crisis could lead to a decline in global GDP by 1.2% to 2.8% [41] - The U.S. debt growth rate is significantly higher than that of other developed nations, raising alarms about the sustainability of its fiscal policies [54][56] Group 5 - The current debt crisis is viewed as a pivotal moment in the decline of U.S. global dominance, with the emergence of a multipolar world order [43][57] - China's strategic responses, including diversifying trade and enhancing domestic production capabilities, contrast sharply with the U.S. approach to debt management [48][50] - The potential for a new global economic order is being shaped by the U.S.'s internal challenges and the strategic resilience demonstrated by China [57]

截至今年7月，美国欠下的债务已经飙到36.3万亿美元，这个数字大到什么程度？相当于好几个德国一年的经济总量，光每年还利息就要9210亿，够一个加 拿大折腾一整年。 最要命的是增长速度。2024年底还是33万亿，短短半年就暴涨3万亿。 这什么概念？平均每天增加160亿美元。 你晚上睡一觉醒来，美国又多欠了160亿。这速度，连印钞机都得累坏。 作者-彤 面对这座债务大山，号称"史上最伟大总统"的特朗普彻底急了。从炒掉统计局长到篡改就业数据，从死磕美联储到推出"耍赖协议"，招招都是险棋。 这位曾经威风八面的美国总统，怎么会被逼到自毁招牌的绝路？当连自己的政府数据都不可信时，还有谁敢相信美国能还得起这笔天文数字？ 半年涨3万亿，连火箭都没这么快：美国债务到底有多吓人 半年时间，美国国债从33万亿蹿到36.3万亿，这速度比火箭还快。 前言 说起来你可能没概念，36万亿到底是个什么数字？如果摞成百元美钞，能绕地球几十圈。 更直观点说，就是每个美国人头上背着11万美元的债，包括刚出生的婴儿。一个四口之家，光债务就有44万美元，比大多数人的房子还贵。 更悲催的是，这钱不是白借的。每年光还利息就要掏出9210亿美元，占政府总支 ...

鲍威尔（资料图） 为解决赤字问题，特朗普将目光投向外贸，尤其对中国发起大规模关税战。2025年4月起，宣布对几乎 所有进口商品征收10%基准关税，对中国商品更是多次加税。4月2日开始，对中国额外加征10%关税， 5月再加20%，主要针对"芬太尼"等敏感商品，对高科技芯片关税甚至一度预告高达70%。 然而，中国迅速且强硬地反击，商务部列出清单回敬，扩大对美农产品和工业品的加税，供应链也向东 南亚转移。中国企业坚决抵抗单方加税，毫不退缩。不仅如此，欧盟、日本等盟友也未完全配合特朗普 的关税政策，越南等新兴市场国家则持观望态度，试图吸纳东移的产业链。 尽管特朗普多次加码关税，但最终效果不佳。5月，他不得不宣布移除部分关税，寻求退路。贸易逆差 依旧居高不下，美国出口商和农场主库存积压严重，焦虑蔓延。到了7月，中国明确表态准备打持久 战，特朗普的关税战术彻底失效，贸易战陷入僵局。 据环球网报道，当地时间8月1日，特朗普发文指责美联储主席鲍威尔，若不降息，美联储理事会应接管 控制权，美债与经济问题再成焦点。 截至2025年7月，美国国债总额已突破36万亿美元，这一数字相当于多个世界大国GDP总和。美国财政 部数据显示，公 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the failure of the U.S. strategy under Trump to resolve the $36 trillion national debt through a trade war with China, highlighting that China is not yielding to U.S. pressure [1][9][16] - In response to U.S. tariffs, China has become more assertive, imposing tariffs on U.S. agricultural and industrial products, and shifting parts of its supply chain to Southeast Asia to reduce reliance on the U.S. market [3][5][11] - China is also focusing on technological advancements, increasing investments in core technologies like chips and artificial intelligence to achieve self-sufficiency and mitigate risks from U.S. actions [7][11] Group 2 - Trump's approach to reduce trade deficits through tariffs has backfired, leading to increased pressure on U.S. exporters and farmers, resulting in inventory buildup and domestic unrest [13][16] - Despite attempts to negotiate and cancel some tariffs, the trade deficit remains unchanged, and the global supply chain has been disrupted, leading to a stalemate in the trade war [16][19] - Trump has also targeted the Federal Reserve, blaming it for the economic slowdown due to high interest rates, and has attempted to exert political pressure on the Fed, which operates independently [19][21] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that the root cause of the U.S. debt issue is not merely excessive spending but a structural imbalance in the economy, with military and welfare expenditures being politically untouchable [27][29] - Trump's tax cuts and deregulation may provide short-term economic boosts but exacerbate long-term debt issues, with projections indicating that debt will continue to rise significantly [29][31] - The increasing U.S. debt could undermine global confidence in the dollar, leading to higher borrowing costs and a potential economic crisis, as countries seek alternatives to U.S. debt [31][33]

Group 1 - The article discusses China's shift from being a "mysterious buyer" of Russian gold to a more transparent purchasing approach starting in 2025 [1][2] - In June 2025, Russia exported over $1 billion worth of gold to Hong Kong, which is three times the amount from the same period last year, making Russia's gold imports to Hong Kong second only to the UAE and mainland China [1] - In 2023, China set a record for gold purchases from Russia, with the People's Bank of China reportedly buying around 735 tons of gold, although some of this was not publicly disclosed [5] Group 2 - Since 2022, China has been reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, which fell below $800 billion by March 2025, while simultaneously seeking more gold as a financial safeguard [6] - Russian gold is sold to China at a discount of $20 to $50 per ounce, making it an attractive option even for arbitrage trading [6] - In 2024, Russia's gold production reached 330 tons, a 5.3% increase year-on-year, positioning Russia as the world's second-largest gold producer [8] Group 3 - The price of gold has increased from approximately $2,000 per ounce in 2022 to around $3,400 per ounce currently, providing significant revenue for Russia from gold exports [8]