Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a downward trend influenced by optimistic expectations regarding trade agreements between the U.S. and its partners, leading to a withdrawal of safe-haven funds, a strengthening dollar, and rising U.S. Treasury yields [1][3]. Price Movement Analysis - Gold prices have declined from a high of $3345 to around $3280, with significant support at the $3280 level, which has not yet been breached [1][3]. - The recent drop from $3345 to $3320 represents a $25 decrease, and a similar drop from $3310 to $3285 has occurred, indicating a consistent downward movement [3]. - The current price action suggests a potential for a rebound, with a focus on the support level between $3275 and $3280 [1][3]. Trading Strategy - Recommendations include buying gold on dips around $3287-$3282 with a stop loss at $3275 and a target of $3310-$3320 [4]. - Additionally, selling gold on rebounds around $3315-$3320 is advised, with a stop loss at $3328 and a target of $3300-$3290 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price continues to decline, driven by reduced safe-haven demand due to optimistic trade sentiments and a stronger US dollar, with significant market movements observed in recent trading sessions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trade Developments - Optimism in trade negotiations has led to a decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, as the US has postponed tariff implementation on Japan, South Korea, and 14 other countries until August 1, allowing for potential negotiations [3]. - Geopolitical risks have also eased, with the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal levels, further boosting global risk appetite and diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index has strengthened, reaching 97.660, which directly pressures gold prices as it increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [4]. - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted, with concerns about delayed interest rate cuts growing, particularly after mixed employment data [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Dynamics - Gold prices have breached the critical psychological level of $3,300, entering a technical support zone between $3,280 and $3,290, with potential for further declines if this support fails [7]. - The recent net reduction of 12 tons in global gold ETFs indicates that institutional investors are taking profits amid easing trade tensions, contributing to increased market selling pressure [7]. Group 4: Investor Behavior and Market Outlook - Investor sentiment is notably divided, with retail investors buying on dips while institutional investors are establishing short positions in the futures market, indicating a bearish outlook [9]. - The current gold market is at a critical juncture, with trade optimism and a strong dollar exerting short-term pressure, while central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks provide long-term support [10].

Group 1 - The current silver price is $36.76 per ounce, with a trading range between $36.64 and $36.86 during the day [1][2] - The strong U.S. dollar is putting downward pressure on silver prices, as investors flock to the dollar amid trade uncertainties [3][4] - The market is facing unpredictability due to conflicting ideologies between Trump's protectionist policies and Musk's advocacy for free trade, which may complicate silver's role as a hedge [4] Group 2 - Analysts warn that if silver fails to hold the short-term pivot at $36.30, it could lead to a price drop to the major support range of $35.40 to $34.87 [5] - The market is currently experiencing profit-taking pressure, similar to gold, as investors reassess their positions ahead of clarity on U.S. trade policies and Federal Reserve actions [5] - The medium-term trend remains supported by the 50-day moving average at $34.50 and the 200-day moving average at $32.40, maintaining a "buy on dips" strategy [5]

Group 1 - The strong US dollar has led to a decline in gold prices, reaching a near one-week low as investors await trade details before the tariff deadline [1] - Recent strong US economic data, including robust job growth in June, has cooled expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, further strengthening the dollar and causing a slight pullback in gold prices [1] - Despite the short-term fluctuations, the overall trend for gold remains bullish, although caution is advised for potential significant corrections in the near term [1] Group 2 - Following the release of non-farm payroll data, market sentiment has cooled as negotiations in the Middle East resume, contributing to uncertainty in the market [3] - Gold prices opened lower and experienced a significant drop, reaching a low of 3295, with an intraday decline of nearly 50 USD, indicating a deep pullback [3] - Key support levels for gold are identified between 3292-3288, while resistance is seen at 3315-3322, suggesting potential short-term trading strategies [3][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have declined due to a stronger US dollar and strong economic data from the US, which has reduced the urgency for interest rate cuts [1][3] - The market is awaiting details on tariffs and is particularly focused on the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes to analyze future monetary policy [3] - Despite short-term bearish sentiment, the overall trend for gold remains upward, as real yields may continue to decline in the context of potential Fed policy easing [3] Group 2 - Gold prices opened lower, with a significant drop to 3306 and further down to 3295, indicating a bearish trend in the short term [6] - The analysis suggests that gold may continue to face downward pressure unless it breaks above the resistance level of 3310, with a potential target of 3438 if upward momentum is achieved [6] - The current market sentiment is mixed, with both bullish and bearish scenarios possible, but the bearish outlook appears stronger at this moment [6]

Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed strong performance, with 147,000 new jobs added, exceeding the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% [1] - Initial jobless claims remained low at 233,000, indicating resilience in the labor market, which boosts the economic outlook for the U.S. [1] - This data has strengthened the U.S. dollar and suppressed gold prices, while also reducing market expectations for a short-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary warned countries against delaying trade negotiations, suggesting that tariffs could rise to levels seen on April 2, affecting around 100 countries with at least 10% reciprocal tariffs [1] - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the House indicates a trend towards expansionary fiscal policy, potentially supporting the economy and lowering safe-haven demand [1] - The Atlanta Fed President indicated that the U.S. economy may experience prolonged high inflation, reinforcing market expectations for sustained high interest rates, which increases the holding cost of gold [1] - Discussions between Trump and Putin regarding the Middle East and Ukraine, along with plans to restart nuclear negotiations with Iran, have eased geopolitical risks, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe haven [1] Gold Market Analysis - The gold price has shown a bearish trend after retreating from its high, currently facing pressure from the non-farm data, trading below the 20 and 60-period moving averages [4] - The price is under pressure from the middle Bollinger Band, with potential further resistance from the upper Bollinger Band as time progresses [4] - The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone, suggesting a possible short-term pullback in gold prices [4] Trading Strategy - A short position is recommended around 3338.2, with a stop loss at 3345.0 and targets set at 3311.5 to 3283.5 [5] Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is currently in a weekly oscillation phase, with the recent non-farm data exerting downward pressure on bullish momentum [8] - The price is facing strong resistance near the upper boundary of the weekly oscillation and the previous high of 37.06, indicating potential obstacles for upward movement [8] - The CCI indicator has entered the oversold zone, suggesting weakness in the market [8] Trading Strategy for Silver - A short position is suggested around 36.97, with a stop loss at 37.20 and targets set at 36.49 to 36.16 [9]

Price Trends - The overall gold price in the domestic market remains above 1000 yuan per gram, with specific prices from various brands showing slight fluctuations [1][4] - The highest price is from Liufu Gold at 1005 yuan per gram, while the lowest is from Shanghai China Gold at 969 yuan per gram, resulting in a price difference of 36 yuan per gram [1][3] Brand Price Summary - Liufu Gold: 1005 yuan/gram (no change) [1] - Zhou Dafu: 1005 yuan/gram (no change) [1] - Zhou Liufu: 985 yuan/gram (up 7 yuan) [1] - Lao Miao: 999 yuan/gram (down 3 yuan) [1] - Lao Fengxiang: 1003 yuan/gram (down 3 yuan) [3] - Chao Hongji: 1005 yuan/gram (no change) [3] - Zhou Shengsheng: 1004 yuan/gram (down 6 yuan) [3] - Cai Bai: 978 yuan/gram (no change) [3] - Shanghai China Gold: 969 yuan/gram (no change) [3] International Market Influence - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, reducing the likelihood of a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has strengthened the dollar and put pressure on gold prices [6] - As of the latest report, spot gold is trading at 3342.15 USD/ounce, reflecting a 0.48% increase [6] - The market is closely monitoring the implications of U.S. tariff announcements, which could have both short-term negative and long-term positive effects on gold [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the U.S. labor market, with June's non-farm payrolls adding 147,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 110,000 [3] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, better than the anticipated 4.3% [3] - The labor force participation rate slightly declined from 62.4% to 62.3% [3] - Average hourly earnings year-on-year growth fell from 3.8% in May to 3.7% in June, although it was above the expected 3.6% [3] Group 2 - The ISM Services PMI for June rose from 49.9 in May to 50.8, surpassing the expected 50.5 [4] - Strong employment data suggests a decreased likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates sooner than expected, leading to a stronger dollar and increased pressure on the gold market [4] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to remain on hold during the July meeting increased from 76.2% to 95.3% following the employment report [4] - Investors now predict a 53 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, down from an earlier estimate of 66 basis points [4] Group 3 - Silver futures in the domestic market showed a short-term bullish trend, with prices reported at 8,914 yuan per kilogram, up 0.53% [5] - The highest price reached was 8,950 yuan per kilogram, while the lowest was 8,877 yuan per kilogram [5] - Resistance levels are identified between 8,976 and 8,986 yuan, with support levels between 8,644 and 8,654 yuan [5]

摘要周五（7月4日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，最新黄金交投于3330美元关口附近，非农数据的意 外向好，美联储7月降息9月降息概率也下降，美元和美债收益率齐涨，美元走强对黄金市场形成了显著 压力，周四黄金日线探高回落，日线收盘小阴K线。 强劲的就业数据直接推高了美元和美债收益率。美元指数周四上涨0.34%，报97.12，而两年期美债收益 率攀升9.7个基点至3.789%，十年期美债收益率也上升至4.346%。美元走强使得黄金对海外买家的吸引 力下降，因为以美元计价的黄金变得更加昂贵。 市场对美联储7月降息的预期几乎归零，9月降息25个基点的概率也从92.5%降至67%。这一转变直接导 致了黄金价格的回落，投资者对黄金的避险需求暂时被压制。 【技术面分析】 黄金日线探高回落，日线收盘小阴K线，本周的节奏整体保持在高位拉锯震荡，并没有持续性的单边， 美元短期强弱不定，也限制了黄金的波动空间，反复探高回落，破高无力，回调又缺少下破力度，关键 的区间未打破，今日周线收官，从周线来看，黄金行情还是震荡收尾的节奏，月线仍在试探摸高上影 线。 日线图上，黄金从一个月低点触底反弹，刷新一周新高后涨势遇阻，保持震荡走势运行。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have dropped to a new low since June, primarily influenced by a combination of factors including easing geopolitical tensions and a decline in risk aversion [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has led to a rapid decrease in tensions in the Middle East, resulting in a withdrawal of funds from safe-haven assets like gold to riskier assets such as U.S. stocks and oil stocks [1] - The global stock markets have collectively risen, with major U.S. indices increasing by over 1%, while oil prices have plummeted by more than 7%, further diminishing gold's appeal as a safe haven [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Dollar Impact - The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has been postponed, as Chairman Powell indicated the need to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation, leading to a shift in market focus from a July rate cut to a September cut with a probability exceeding 70% [3] - The U.S. dollar has shown a phase of strength, supported by resilient economic data, which has increased the holding costs of gold priced in dollars, thereby exerting downward pressure on international gold prices [4] Group 3: Technical Selling and Market Sentiment - A technical breakdown occurred when gold prices fell below critical support levels (e.g., $3,300 per ounce), triggering algorithmic trading sell-offs and exacerbating downward pressure [5] - Speculative funds have taken profits after gold prices surged due to Middle Eastern conflict expectations, with prices reaching $3,476 per ounce on June 16 before the ceasefire [6] Group 4: Domestic Gold Price Trends - Domestic gold jewelry prices have dropped below 1,000 yuan per gram, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang quoting prices between 998-1,006 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily decline of up to 14 yuan per gram [7] - The wholesale price in the Shenzhen market has also decreased to around 768 yuan per gram, following international trends [7] Group 5: Future Key Variables - The stability of the Middle East ceasefire is crucial; any resurgence of conflict could lead to a renewed increase in safe-haven demand [8] - Future signals from the Federal Reserve, particularly from Powell's subsequent speeches and July's non-farm payroll data, will be pivotal in shaping rate cut expectations [9] - Long-term support remains from global central bank gold purchases, which surged by 170% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings for 18 consecutive months [10] Group 6: Investment Recommendations - A short-term wait-and-see approach is advised, focusing on whether the support levels of $3,250-$3,300 can hold [11] - For long-term positioning, gold remains a tool for hedging against inflation and geopolitical risks, suggesting a strategy of gradual accumulation on dips [12]