Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has reached its 35th day, tying the record for the longest government shutdown in U.S. history [1] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that if the shutdown lasts for 4 weeks, the annual GDP growth rate could decline by approximately 1 to 2 percentage points, resulting in an economic loss of about $7 billion [1] - If the shutdown extends to 6 weeks, the economic loss is projected to increase to $11 billion, and if it reaches 8 weeks, the loss could be as high as $14 billion [1] Group 2 - Despite the economic pressures from the government shutdown, the U.S. dollar index surpassed the 100 mark during Asian trading hours, marking the first time since August 1 [1] - The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, reaching a high of 154.48, the highest level since mid-February [1] - Following comments from Japan's Finance Minister regarding market volatility, the yen temporarily rebounded to 153.49 [1] Group 3 - The euro fell by 0.15% against the dollar, touching the 1.15 level, while the Singapore dollar dropped to 1.3070, the lowest since May 12 [2] - The Indonesian rupiah also declined by 0.5% to 16,733, marking a new low since September 26 [2] - The Indian rupee experienced a rebound after suspected intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, rising by 0.4% to 88.3925, the largest single-day gain since October 15 [2]

Group 1 - The price of copper has declined from its record high due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December, with LME three-month copper contracts falling by 1.62% to $10,669.00 per ton [1] - Copper is considered a "barometer" of the global economy, widely used in construction, electricity, and manufacturing. It reached a record high of $11,200 per ton last week, driven by optimistic expectations from US-China trade talks [3] - Supply uncertainties have been a significant driver for recent copper price increases, with major mining companies like Glencore and Anglo American warning of production shortfalls, and Freeport-McMoRan reducing its 2026 production guidance by 35%, equating to a loss of approximately 270,000 tons of copper [3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in copper prices is largely priced in, as market sentiment shifts back to the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, with a stronger dollar making dollar-denominated commodities less attractive [4] - The Federal Reserve's recent statements indicate a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with several officials expressing skepticism about the need for further reductions, which has contributed to the uncertainty in the market [6][7] - Current market expectations place the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December at approximately 67%, but economic data gaps and inflation trends are creating a more uncertain policy outlook [8]

Core Viewpoint - The strengthening of the US dollar is pressuring copper prices, leading to a high-level correction in domestic copper futures, with the main contract reported at 85,760 yuan/ton, down 1.52% [1] Market Overview - LME copper futures have declined due to the strong US dollar, which has dampened market sentiment. However, concerns over supply shortages are helping to limit the decline in copper prices [2] - Chile's copper production in September was 456,663 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 7.79% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% [2] - As of November 3, domestic electrolytic copper inventories were at 206,000 tons, an increase of 17,400 tons from October 27. Shanghai's inventory rose by 12,800 tons, Guangdong's by 200 tons, and Jiangsu's by 6,000 tons [2] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI for October fell to 48.7%, indicating continued contraction for eight months, with weak demand and employment, while inflation is cooling. The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for October was finalized at 50, with Germany and France continuing to contract, and weak new orders hampering recovery [2] Institutional Insights - According to a report from Industrial Futures, the strong dollar is pressuring copper prices, but the trend of liquidity easing remains unchanged. The easing of US-China trade tensions is seen as a positive macro environment, and ongoing supply concerns from major mining companies reducing annual production guidance are supporting copper prices. The strategy suggests that the recent correction in copper prices is limited, and previous long positions can be maintained [3] - Everbright Futures noted that the recent high-to-low fluctuations in copper prices indicate weak short-term bullish sentiment. November marks a transition between peak and off-peak seasons, and the continuous inventory accumulation in the domestic market raises concerns about demand at high copper prices. However, there is no panic sentiment in the market, suggesting that the correction in copper prices may be limited, presenting a buying opportunity on dips, with a focus on long positions in the first half of next year [3]

Core Points - The Australian gold stock index (AXGD) fell by 1.3% to 15,816 points on November 3, marking the largest single-day decline since October 28 [1] - The drop in gold and silver prices is attributed to a stronger US dollar and reduced expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Easing trade tensions have also put pressure on gold prices [1] - Major industry players Northern Star Resources (NST.AX) and Evolution Mining saw their stock prices decline by 1.5% and 2.3%, respectively [1] - Year-to-date, the index has increased by 87.8% [1]

Group 1 - The Australian gold stock index (AXGD) fell by 1.3% to 15,816 points, marking the largest single-day decline since October 28 [1] - The decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to a stronger US dollar and reduced expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Major companies in the industry, Northern Star Resources (NST.AX) and Evolution Mining, saw their stock prices drop by 1.5% and 2.3% respectively [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent decline, the AXGD index has increased by 87.8% year-to-date [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline on October 31, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping over 1.5% in the afternoon session, driven by widespread losses in tech stocks and weakness in the semiconductor sector [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) followed the index's downward trend, with leading stocks such as Kingdee International, Kingsoft, and Haier Smart Home performing well, while stocks like Hua Hong Semiconductor, SMIC, BYD, Alibaba, Kuaishou, and Tencent Holdings faced significant declines, with Hua Hong Semiconductor dropping over 7% in the afternoon [1] - According to Huaxi Securities, the global market is currently in a "vacuum period" following the US-China leaders' meeting, and the market is under pressure due to the lack of decisions from the Federal Reserve regarding the December meeting, alongside a strengthening US dollar [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Technology Index has seen a moderate increase of 37.49% since April 8, which is comparable to the 37.85% increase of the Wind All A Index, despite a significant pullback in October [1] - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) is at 23.50 times P/E ratio, which is at a valuation percentile of approximately 32.84%, indicating that it is lower than 70% of its historical valuation period, suggesting a certain margin of safety for investors [2] - Investors without a Hong Kong Stock Connect account may consider using the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) to gain exposure to core AI assets in China [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to a combination of profit-taking by investors and a strengthening US dollar, which diminishes the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have dropped to $4028 per ounce, nearly 5% lower than previous highs, with domestic gold prices also retreating to around 920 yuan per gram [1]. - The decline is driven by short-term profit-taking as many institutions sell off to lock in gains after gold prices exceeded $4200 [3]. - The US economy's better-than-expected data has led to a rebound in the dollar index, further reducing gold's attractiveness [3]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term fluctuations, the long-term support for gold prices remains intact, with 95% of surveyed central banks planning to increase their gold holdings [3]. - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for five consecutive months, indicating ongoing institutional demand [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors should differentiate between "hedging" and "speculation" to avoid losses; long-term holders may consider accumulating gold during price dips, while short-term traders should be cautious [5]. - A suggested strategy includes monitoring the $4000 key level and gradually building positions, ensuring that total exposure does not exceed 30% of the investment capital [8]. - Setting stop-loss limits is crucial to manage risk, especially for leveraged products, to prevent significant losses during market volatility [8].

Group 1 - International precious metal futures experienced a general decline, with COMEX gold futures dropping by 1.04% to $3941.7 per ounce and COMEX silver futures falling by 0.1% to $47.275 per ounce [1] - Analysts suggest that after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the market's positive sentiment has peaked, and Fed Chair Powell's indication that a December rate cut is not guaranteed has led to a downward adjustment in future rate cut expectations, resulting in a stronger dollar that pressures gold prices [1] - In South Korea, domestic gold prices have fallen below $4000 due to easing trade disputes, profit-taking, and slowing CPI, with local prices experiencing a greater decline compared to international prices [1] Group 2 - Some analysts believe the recent sharp decline in gold prices is merely a short-term adjustment, and if demand from individual investors and central banks continues, international gold prices are expected to rebound to an average of $5055 per ounce in Q4 2021 [3] - NH Investment & Securities maintains an increased weighting in gold, asserting that in a monetary easing environment, gold will continue to benefit as a hedge against inflation [3] - A report from Al Banyan Tree indicates that over the past four years, gold has become a primary savings method for the Russian public, with retail gold purchases in Russia expected to reach 62.2 tons this year [3] - The Reserve Bank of India is accelerating the repatriation of overseas gold reserves, having brought back nearly 64 tons of gold in the first six months of the fiscal year, with domestic gold reserves now exceeding 65%, nearly doubling from four years ago [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the historical volatility of gold prices, highlighting significant drops and the underlying factors that contribute to these declines, emphasizing that gold, often seen as a safe haven, can experience sharp downturns during crises [1][4][28]. Historical Context and Analysis - Gold has experienced dramatic price fluctuations throughout its history, with notable declines during economic crises, reflecting changes in the global financial system and providing valuable lessons for investors [4][5]. - The analysis will utilize historical event analysis to construct a comprehensive timeline of significant gold price drops, examining the market environment, triggering factors, and impacts on various economic sectors [5]. Early 20th Century Price Drops - During the gold standard period (1920-1932), gold prices remained stable, but the 1929 stock market crash led to a severe economic downturn, challenging the gold standard [9][10]. - The Great Depression (1929-1933) saw a re-evaluation of gold prices, with significant increases due to bank failures and gold hoarding, culminating in the U.S. abandoning the gold standard [10]. Post-Bretton Woods Price Fluctuations - The collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 marked the beginning of gold's free-floating era, leading to significant price volatility [12]. - The first major drop post-Bretton Woods occurred between 1975-1976, where gold prices fell by 47% due to government intervention and profit-taking [13][14]. 1980s Price Collapse - The peak of gold prices in January 1980 at $850 per ounce was followed by a dramatic decline of 65% by mid-1982, driven by aggressive monetary policy changes and a strong dollar [16][17][18]. - The long-term bear market from 1980 to 2000 saw gold prices fluctuate between $250 and $500 per ounce, influenced by high interest rates and a strong dollar [20][23]. 21st Century Price Drops - The 2008 financial crisis led to an unexpected drop in gold prices, despite its traditional role as a safe haven, with prices falling over 30% during the crisis [28][32]. - The COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 triggered a brief but severe drop in gold prices, similar to 2008, due to liquidity crises and forced selling [40][43]. Recent Adjustments - In October 2025, gold prices reached a record high of $4059 per ounce before experiencing a significant drop, highlighting the volatility and rapid changes in market sentiment [50][51]. - The recent adjustment was characterized by rapid declines, high trading volumes, and significant losses for leveraged investors, indicating a shift in market dynamics [52][53]. Common Characteristics of Price Drops - Key triggers for gold price declines include shifts in monetary policy, strong dollar performance, liquidity crises, and speculative bubbles [61][62]. - Historical data shows that significant price drops can occur rapidly, with single-day declines exceeding 12%, and longer-term bear markets lasting several years [64][65].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices has caused significant distress among investors, highlighting the volatility of the gold market despite its long-term upward trend over the past 23 years [1][10]. Market Analysis - The recent drop in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking, a decrease in risk aversion, a strengthening dollar, and easing geopolitical and trade tensions, as indicated by comments from political figures [3]. - The ongoing legislative efforts, such as the "Price Law Amendment Draft," aim to regulate price fluctuations, but the market remains largely free, leading to chaotic price movements [3]. Investor Sentiment - Investors are expressing frustration and confusion over the sudden price drop, with many feeling misled by previous bullish sentiments surrounding gold [5][8]. - The decline has also impacted the broader precious metals market, with platinum and silver experiencing significant price drops [6]. Historical Context - Historical data shows that gold prices have not consistently risen, with periods of stagnation and decline, reminding investors of the inherent risks in the gold market [12]. Investment Strategy - Experts advise against blindly following market trends and suggest diversifying investments to mitigate risks associated with gold price fluctuations [13].