格隆汇12月10日｜私人投资管理公司Neuberger Berman财富管理部门首席投资官Shannon Saccoci在最新 备忘录中表示：无论本周美联储是否降息，利率终将下行，并推动美国经济重新加速，为风险资产打开 上涨空间。她指出，尽管市场对12月10日美联储是否降息25个基点的预期在过去几周剧烈摇摆，但真正 关键的是美联储整体宽松的政策倾向——这对美国经济和风险市场具有建设性意义。Saccocia强调，尽 管降息时机和幅度的风险依然存在，但这并不会改变最终目的地：明年下半年联邦基金利率将更低、更 宽松。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

通胀数据显示，九月PCE物价指数同比上升2.8%，环比上升0.3%。核心PCE物价指数同比上升2.8%，略 低于预期。尽管通胀仍高于美联储2%的目标，但数据基本符合市场预期。 劳动力市场方面，消费支出的停滞表明美国经济在政府停摆前已经放缓。九月美国消费者实际可支配收 入连续两个月几乎没有增长，商品支出出现五月以来最大降幅。 美国国债收益率近期攀升至数月高位，投资者对美联储明年的降息空间产生质疑。十年期美债收益率升 至两个月多来最高水平，全球多数政府债券市场同步下跌。 市场交易员正为本周三场美国债券招标做准备。财政部将发行580亿美元的3年期国债，随后分别发行 390亿美元的10年期国债和220亿美元的30年期国债。财政部调整了招标时间安排，以配合美联储为期两 天的政策会议。 与此同时，投资者已将美联储本周降息25个基点的概率定价至90%左右。然而令人困惑的现象出现了， 尽管市场预期美联储继续宽松，长期债券收益率却持续上扬。自去年9月美联储启动降息周期以来，十 年期国债收益率不降反升，累计攀升近50个基点。 这种反常现象被称为反向"格林斯潘利率之谜"。历史上，央行调整短期政策利率时，长期债券收益率通 常会同向变 ...

黄金方面： 恰逢美国重要假期，近期黄金市场基本面较为清淡。此前公布美国经济数据显示，截至11月22日当周，美国初请失业金人数录 得21.6万人，低于市场预期的22.5万人，创下了今年4月份以来的最低水平。 美联储经济褐皮书提到，美国政府停摆对消费者决策产生了负面的影响，低收入者受到了直接冲击，在美国经济面临压力的背 景下，美联储延续宽松的货币政策将是大概率事件。 地缘政治方面，俄罗斯总统普京表示，和平协议目前尚无最终版本，暗示俄乌冲突想要结束停火仍然存在不确定性。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，市场对美联储宽松的预期押注以及地缘仍然存在不确定性，短期将为金价提供支 撑。 技术面：日线上，近期黄金价格震荡上行为主，表现较为强势。指标上看，20日均线拐头向上，暗示金价有机会再度上行。日 内关注上方4231美元一线压力，下方关注4155美元一线支撑。 本周在美国经济数据并不亮眼的背景下，美联储官员们公开讲话中再度倾向降息，美元指数从高位回落。 短期来看，美国经济数据好坏参半，美联储内部对于降息仍然存在分歧，美元指数维持高位震荡调整的概率比较大。 从中长期来看，美国的债务水平巨大，需要美联储降息以缓解压力；特 ...

几位美联储官员最近表示愿意采取短期宽松政策，这加强了市场对美联储可能在12月会议上再次降息25个基点的预期。 这一前景继续对美元构成结构性压力，有助于限制白银的大幅回调。 与此同时，在对美联储宽松政策信心增强的推动下，全球股市人气改善，在一定程度上减少了对避险资产的需求。然 而，这种影响被持续存在的地缘政治风险部分抵消。这令投资者保持适度谨慎，间接支撑了白银。 美元指数近期下跌后趋于稳定，略高于本周低点。最近美国公布的经济数据，包括喜忧参半的制造业数据、劳动力市场 走软的迹象和消费势头减弱，强化了对美国经济放缓的预期。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为86.9%，维持利率不变的概率为13.1%。美联储到明年1月累计 降息25个基点的概率为67.3%，维持利率不变的概率为9.6%，累计降息50个基点的概率为23.1%。 今日周五(11月28日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于53.81一线上方，今日开盘于53.35美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银 暂报54.01美元/盎司，上涨1.07%，最高触及54.22美元/盎司，最低下探53.30美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线 偏向震荡走势。 ...

全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓报告显示，11月26日黄金etf持有量为1045.43吨，较上一交易日 增加4.57吨。周三(11月26日)截止收盘，现货黄金报4162.35美元/盎司，涨幅0.79%，日内最高上探至 4173.20美元/盎司，最低触4129.07美元/盎司。 美国国债收益率周三涨跌不一，10年期收益率尾盘持平于3.999%，近一个月来首次跌破4%关口；两年 期收益率小幅上涨至3.483%，而30年期收益率则略降至4.645%。收益率曲线的牛市平坦化现象显现， 两年期与10年期收益率差距从54.3个基点缩窄至51.5个基点。这部分得益于英国债市的强势反弹，英国 财政大臣里夫斯的预算案缓解了长期财政担忧，推动投资者涌入英国长期债券。 美国至11月22日当周初请失业金人数录得21.6万人，低于预期的22.5万人和上修后的前值22.2万人，为 2025年4月12日当周以来新低。 【市场要闻速递】 周三，美元指数下跌0.24%，刷新一周低点至99.55，尽管经济数据强劲，但投资者对美联储宽松政策的 预期未变。这与全球债市的联动效应密切相关。 大多数银行研究机构认为，到2026年 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities maintained a volatile trend, with industrial products fluctuating and agricultural products rebounding from lows. The cooling of the US labor market and the resurgence of interest - rate cut expectations led to a decline in the US dollar index, stimulating market risk appetite. Meanwhile, the continued slowdown of the domestic economy and the weakening of both domestic and external demand restricted the rebound space of industrial products [3]. - Multiple private - sector data in the US, such as ADP and Revelio Labs, show that US employment growth has slowed down, which may support the Fed's further easing policies. The end of the US government shutdown shifted market focus to economic data performance [3]. - In October, the domestic macro - economy continued the trend of weakening from the third - quarter. To ensure stable economic operation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and to start the "15th Five - Year Plan" smoothly, it is necessary to strengthen policies by the end of the year, focusing on expanding domestic demand, stimulating consumption potential, and expanding effective investment [3]. - Due to the mixed macro - factors, commodities are likely to maintain a volatile trend. Geopolitical factors, such as the unresolved Russia - Ukraine conflict, potential conflicts in Venezuela, and the uncertainty of OPEC+ production policies, will continue to disrupt the commodity, especially the crude - oil market [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Situation Analysis - **Employment Data**: ADP and Revelio Labs data indicate that US employment growth has slowed down. In November, ADP employment increased by 10,400, with a significant slowdown compared to previous months. Revelio Labs data also shows a similar trend, with 9,100 new jobs in October and 50,300 in November [3][7]. - **Government Shutdown and Policy**: The US government ended a 43 - day shutdown. The US Treasury Secretary hinted at plans to exempt tariffs on coffee, bananas and other foods and a possible $2,000 tax - refund plan for families with an annual income of less than $100,000 [3]. - **Inflation and Trade Data**: From the inflation and trade data trends, the US CPI and core CPI trends, as well as fiscal revenue from tariffs and trade balance data, reflect the complex situation of the US economy [9][13]. - **OPEC+ Outlook**: OPEC predicts a slight oversupply of global oil in 2026. OPEC+ production policies and the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast also have an impact on the oil market. The current price of WTI crude oil is $62.57, a 4% decline from $58.49 [3][18]. Domestic Situation Analysis - **Investment and Consumption**: From January to October, real - estate development investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, while manufacturing investment increased by 6.1% and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 6.2%. In October, the year - on - year growth rates of total retail sales of consumer goods, retail sales of goods, and catering revenue were 2.9%, 2.7%, and 3.0% respectively [21][22]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy report in 2025 sent a clear signal of "seeking progress while maintaining stability". The policy aims to maintain a moderately loose monetary environment, accurately guide credit resource allocation, and balance economic growth, internal - external equilibrium, and risk prevention [3]. - **Other Economic Indicators**: In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.5%, slightly higher than the previous value of 8.2%. In October, the PMI was 50.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points [25][27]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: As of November 14, the operating rates of PTA, POY, and polyester in the polyester industry chain were 74.5%, 89.0%, and 75.0% respectively. The national blast - furnace operating rate (247 enterprises) and the blast - furnace operating rate in Tangshan also showed different trends [29][30]. - **Automobile Sales Data**: In November, the year - on - year growth rates of automobile manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales were 19% and 4% respectively. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume was 41.5 million, and in November, the sales volume was 1,967,100, a 7% increase [39]. - **Agricultural Product Price Data**: As of November 7, the average wholesale prices of 28 key - monitored vegetables, pork, and 6 key - monitored fruits, as well as the agricultural product wholesale price 200 - index, showed different price trends [40][41].

Market Dynamics - The stock market momentum has weakened, with indices like Nasdaq dropping over 2% and European markets declining approximately 1% [1] - President Trump signed a bill approved by Congress, effectively ending the government shutdown, but the market seems to have already priced in this outcome [1] - The primary concern now is whether upcoming official data will support or oppose the Federal Reserve's further easing policies, particularly the expected rate cut in December [1] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that a third risk management rate cut is not guaranteed, yet the market maintains a high certainty (about 70%) for this outcome [1] Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in December has fallen below 50% for the first time, as indicated by ICMarkets [3] - Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari expressed a wait-and-see attitude towards a December rate cut, opposing the October cut due to strong economic fundamentals and high inflation [3] - Cleveland Fed's Harmack reiterated support for pausing rate cuts next month, emphasizing that inflation concerns outweigh labor market worries [3] - The 30-year Treasury auction saw a tail of $25 billion, with long-end performance being weak, while U.S. Treasury yields generally rose by 2.2 to 5 basis points [3] Currency Movements - The euro to dollar exchange rate rebounded due to interest rate influences but faced resistance near 1.1630 due to U.S. risk aversion [4] - The dollar/yen momentum encountered resistance at the 155 mark, indicating a loss of support for the dollar index [4] - The Chinese yuan appreciated to 7.096 against the dollar, marking its strongest level since October 2024, although weaker-than-expected monthly data limited further appreciation [4] - The euro to pound exchange rate rose to approximately 0.885, the highest since April 2023, amid speculation regarding the UK budget and tax rate adjustments [4] Employment and Economic Reports - The monthly employment report from KPMG and REC indicated the first growth in temporary worker paychecks in 16 months, while permanent job recruitment trends have slowed for the fourth consecutive month [5] - Despite economic weakness and uncertainty surrounding the government budget, employers remain cautious about new hiring [5] - A joint statement from the U.S. government and four Latin American countries announced a reduction in tariffs on various domestically produced goods, including bananas, coffee, and beef, aimed at alleviating the cost of living crisis [5]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and outlook of the hand tools and electric tools industry, focusing on two companies: **Giant Star Technology** and **Ousheng Electric** [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Giant Star Technology - **Market Position**: Giant Star Technology is a leading company in hand tools and electric tools, expanding revenue through acquisitions despite fluctuations due to tariffs and the pandemic [1][3]. - **Revenue Impact**: The company has experienced significant revenue volatility, particularly since 2018 due to U.S. tariffs and the pandemic, but has maintained double-digit profit growth due to investment income and government subsidies [2][3]. - **Production Capacity**: Currently, 73% of production capacity is in Southeast Asia, with only 20% in China. Future exports from China to the U.S. are expected to decline further to avoid high tariffs [1][8]. - **Market Demand**: Recent data indicates a 10% year-over-year decline in U.S. tool sales, but a recovery is anticipated as interest rates decrease and housing demand rebounds [11]. - **Strategic Response**: The company is diversifying its product offerings and strengthening distribution channels to adapt to market changes, while also transferring production capacity to Southeast Asia to mitigate tariff impacts [6][12]. Ousheng Electric - **Market Growth**: Ousheng Electric benefits from demand in the U.S. and emerging markets, with a new factory in Malaysia enhancing production capacity despite short-term performance challenges due to relocation [1][13]. - **Product Development**: The company has gained national endorsement for its elderly care robots, which are expected to benefit from an aging population and potential government subsidies [1][17]. - **Financial Performance**: Ousheng Electric reported a nearly 30% year-over-year decline in net profit for Q3 2025, contrasting with Giant Star's performance, which saw stock price increases prior to its mid-year report [2][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Tariff and Trade Relations**: The easing of U.S.-China trade relations and potential Federal Reserve easing policies are expected to positively impact the export sector, although the effects of previous tariffs and production relocations are still being felt [1][2]. - **Industry Characteristics**: The hand tools industry has a stable long-term growth rate of 5%-10%, driven by consistent consumer demand for home repair tools, which are considered essential [7]. - **Future Outlook**: Both companies are positioned for future growth, with Ousheng Electric's reliance on the U.S. market and Giant Star's diversified production strategy providing different but promising paths forward [16][17]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future prospects of the companies and the industry as a whole.

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price fluctuations around $3960 are reminiscent of the historical patterns observed in 2011, suggesting a potential rebound after a temporary decline [1][3][4]. Market Sentiment - Recent declines in gold prices below the $4000 mark have caused anxiety among investors, with some predicting further drops to $3800 and declaring the end of the gold bull market [3]. - Historical data indicates that similar market conditions in 2011 led to a significant rebound in gold prices after initial declines, driven by Federal Reserve policies [3][4]. Policy Environment - The current monetary policy environment is more conducive to a rebound in gold prices, with expectations of the Federal Reserve halting or even expanding its balance sheet, similar to the QE measures in 2011 [3][4]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in October and a 60% probability for a December cut indicate a strong sentiment for monetary easing, which historically supports gold prices [3][4]. Technical Analysis - The technical patterns observed in the current gold price movements closely mirror those from 2011, with significant retracement levels and indicators suggesting a potential bottom [4]. - The current price levels around $3950-3940 represent a 50% retracement of the upward trend since July 2023, similar to the historical context where prices rebounded from key support levels [4]. Catalysts for Price Movement - Two potential catalysts for gold price increases include geopolitical risks, such as tensions involving Russia and the U.S., and unresolved trade issues that could drive investors to seek safe-haven assets [5]. - Historical parallels show that even when stock markets perform well, gold can still experience significant gains during periods of monetary easing [5]. Investment Strategy - A phased investment strategy is recommended, with incremental purchases at key price levels to mitigate risks associated with volatility, reflecting lessons learned from past market behaviors [6]. - The current market conditions are viewed as a "golden opportunity," with expectations for a rebound following the anticipated easing of monetary policy [6].

Summary of Conference Call on AI Spending and GDP Growth Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) spending on the U.S. GDP growth, particularly in the context of economic policies and market conditions [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Impact of Tariffs and Monetary Policy**: Tariffs have a limited transmission effect on consumer prices, and the Federal Reserve is expected to continue its accommodative policy, with anticipated rate cuts of 25 basis points in October and December. This is expected to boost market risk sentiment, increase stock prices, lower bond yields, and weaken the dollar [1][3]. - **AI Spending Contribution to GDP**: In the first half of 2025, AI-related spending is projected to account for a significant portion of non-residential business fixed investment, contributing approximately 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth, which represents nearly two-thirds of total growth. However, when accounting for import factors, the net contribution to actual GDP growth significantly declines [1][4][5]. - **Software Spending Trends**: In 2024, software spending is expected to contribute minimally to GDP growth, estimated at only 1-2 percentage points. This contribution is projected to rise to about 0.6 percentage points in the first half of 2025, primarily due to an unexpected 10% increase in the software price index in 2024, which is expected to reverse in 2025 [1][6]. - **Economic Activity Misrepresentation**: The unusual fluctuations in the software price index have led to an underestimation of actual economic activity in 2024 and an overestimation in 2025. Future assessments should focus on the sustainability of nominal spending and its performance after adjusting for actual value [1][6]. - **Future AI Investment Outlook**: While AI-related spending is anticipated to continue positively impacting the economy in the coming quarters and years, the growth rate may slow down. Nominal spending reported by companies shows moderate growth, but as the overall level increases, the marginal effect is expected to diminish. Caution is advised in interpreting the relationship between AI investment and GDP to avoid overstating its direct impact on economic activity [1][7][2]. Other Important Considerations - The need for careful interpretation of data regarding AI investments and their relationship with GDP growth is emphasized, highlighting the importance of distinguishing between nominal spending and its actual economic value [2][7].