Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced widespread declines on September 23, with major contracts for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and caustic soda dropping over 3% [1][4] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1446.23 points, down 11.21 points or 0.77% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1996.42 points, down 15.47 points or 0.77% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, continue to reach historical highs, driven by strong investment demand and safe-haven buying amid global uncertainties [2] - As of September 23, both Shanghai gold and silver contracts rose nearly 2%, with prices hitting record highs since their listing [2] - The largest global gold ETF's holdings have surpassed 1000 tons, marking the highest level since August 2022 [2] Group 3: Agricultural Products - The market for red dates and apples showed mild increases, with red dates rising by 0.65% and apples by 0.39% on September 23 [3] - The rebound in red dates and apples is limited compared to previous years, with weak market sentiment and high old stock inventories affecting price movements [3] - The apple market is supported by early-ripening varieties, but uncertainties regarding late-ripening apple quality and pricing are constraining market fluctuations [3] Group 4: Caustic Soda and Related Products - Caustic soda contracts fell over 3% due to weak demand and lower spot prices, with the average market price in Shandong dropping to 817.5 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from early September [5] - The market is characterized by a weak reality versus strong expectations dynamic, with supply pressures continuing [5] - There is a potential for future demand from downstream aluminum production, which may influence market conditions [5]

Group 1 - Economists had predicted a recession in the past few years, but it has not materialized despite multiple interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [3][4][7] - The yield curve inversion has historically been a reliable recession indicator, with the longest inversion occurring from summer 2022 to summer 2023, yet no recession followed [5][6] - The ISM manufacturing activity index has been in contraction for 26 months, indicating potential economic weakness, but a recession has not yet occurred [5][6] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's strong monetary tools and near-zero interest rates have distorted the bond market, complicating recession predictions [7] - The U.S. federal budget deficit has reached levels typically seen only during severe recessions, raising questions about future government spending capacity in a real downturn [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Malaysian Ringgit is expected to remain stable against the US Dollar due to the Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, which is putting pressure on the Dollar [1] Exchange Rate Outlook - The current exchange rate of the Malaysian Ringgit against the US Dollar is reported at 4.2040, with a rise of 0.24% [1] - Economists predict that the exchange rate will trade within the range of 4.15 to 4.20 Ringgit per Dollar in the near term [1] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, further weakening the Dollar [1] Market Focus - The market is closely watching weak labor data to support expectations for further easing by the Federal Reserve [1] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is a key focus; a strong reading could diminish hopes for imminent rate cuts [1] - Housing data will also be monitored for signs that may influence the pace of the Federal Reserve's easing measures [1] Long-term Projections - By the end of 2025, the exchange rate is expected to settle at 4.08 Ringgit per Dollar [1] - Short-term resistance for the Dollar/Ringgit pair is seen at 4.21 Ringgit, while support is at 4.19 Ringgit [1] - The Dollar/Ringgit pair has recently increased by 0.3%, reaching 4.2080 Ringgit [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, adjusting the policy rate to 4.0–4.25%, with indications of potential further easing in the future [1] - Market strategist Zhao Yaoting noted that Powell's comments were somewhat "hawkish," as he did not explicitly commit to reaching a neutral rate, describing the current policy stance as "closer to neutral" [1] - Zhao expects the Federal Reserve to implement two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year, followed by another cut early next year [1] Group 2 - U.S. stock index futures rose in early Asian trading, reflecting a positive market reaction to the rate cut, while U.S. Treasury bonds fell, indicating some disappointment among market participants regarding the Fed's stance [1] - Historically, U.S. stocks tend to perform strongly in the 12-18 months following the start of a Fed easing cycle, provided the economy does not enter a recession [1] - Emerging market stocks are currently valued one-third lower than developed markets, presenting good investment opportunities according to Invesco [1] Group 3 - In the new round of Fed easing, investors are advised to maintain a diversified portfolio and selectively increase allocations to emerging market stocks and local currency bonds [2] - In a declining interest rate environment, real estate is expected to outperform the broader market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market may benefit if the Federal Reserve adopts a "neither too much nor too little" easing policy [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The ability of the stock market to continue strengthening and expand market participation depends on the Federal Reserve's ability to achieve a delicate balance amid tariff policy uncertainties [1] - The Federal Reserve needs to provide sufficient easing to avoid economic recession while keeping inflation under control [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - A decline in fixed income rates may enhance the attractiveness of high-yield stocks as an alternative investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The majority of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members are expected to lower interest rates two more times this year, indicating a dominant dovish stance within the committee [1] Group 1 - Simon Dangoor, the head of fixed income macro strategy at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, highlights the current expectation of further rate cuts by the FOMC [1] - The current monetary policy trajectory suggests that significant increases in inflation or the job market are necessary for the Federal Reserve to shift away from its accommodative stance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Global stock market momentum is expected to continue in the short term, driven by a significant rebound in global economic growth expectations and bets on substantial interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Group 1: Investor Sentiment and Market Trends - Investor sentiment has reached its most optimistic level since February 2025, with cash positions among fund managers remaining low at 3.9% for the third consecutive month [1]. - The net increase in stock allocations has reached a seven-month high, indicating a shift in market risk appetite [4][8]. - Concerns over a "trade war-induced global recession" have significantly diminished, dropping from 29% in August to 12% [4]. Group 2: Economic Growth Expectations - There has been a notable improvement in global economic growth expectations, with only a net 16% of fund managers anticipating economic weakness, down from a net 41% in August [5]. - 67% of respondents expect a "soft landing," while only 10% foresee a "hard landing," a significant increase from 5% in August [5]. - 77% of fund managers anticipate a "stagflation" environment, characterized by below-trend growth and above-trend inflation [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Nearly half (47%) of fund managers expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates four times or more within the next 12 months, indicating strong expectations for monetary easing [10]. - The anticipation of a new round of easing by the Federal Reserve is a key pillar supporting current market optimism [10]. Group 4: Inflation Concerns and Risks - Despite the optimistic market sentiment, concerns about a second wave of inflation have emerged as the largest tail risk, identified by 26% of respondents [14]. - Worries about the declining independence of the Federal Reserve and potential dollar depreciation are also significant, with 24% of respondents expressing these concerns [17]. Group 5: Survey Dynamics - The survey conducted from September 5 to 11 included 165 fund managers managing a total of $426 billion in assets [18]. - 39% of respondents prefer companies to increase capital expenditures, the highest since December of the previous year, while only 27% want companies to focus on improving balance sheets, the lowest since February 2022 [22].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold, predicting a target price of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by structural increases in central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Gold prices have risen 6% since August 26, breaking out of a trading range of $3,200 to $3,450, currently trading around $3,650 [1]. - The recent price increase is attributed to increased ETF holdings, enhanced speculative positions, and expectations of a resurgence in central bank demand after the summer lull [1][3]. Group 2: Central Bank Demand - Goldman Sachs expects central bank gold purchases to continue for three years, driven by emerging market central banks' gold allocation being significantly lower than that of developed markets [5]. - In July, global central bank and institutional demand for gold in the London over-the-counter market was 48 tons, below Goldman Sachs' forecast of an average of 80 tons per month for 2025, aligning with seasonal trends [4]. Group 3: ETF and Speculative Positions - The increase in ETF holdings contributed approximately 1.5 percentage points to the recent 6% price rise, while speculative positions added about 1.2 percentage points [3]. - The report highlights that the anticipated easing of U.S. monetary policy and a 30% risk of recession in the next 12 months will support ETF inflows [4]. Group 4: Emerging Market Central Banks - The structural shift in global central bank gold purchases has increased nearly fivefold since 2022, with emerging market central banks actively diversifying their reserve assets [5]. - For instance, China's official gold reserves account for about 8% of its total reserves, significantly lower than the approximately 70% held by the U.S. and Germany, indicating room for growth [5].

Group 1 - The cost of hedging in the foreign exchange market has risen again after a summer lull, as traders prepare for potential volatility from the upcoming U.S. employment report [1] - The implied volatility of the euro against the dollar reached its highest level since June, indicating increased market sensitivity to employment data and its implications for Federal Reserve policy [1] - A significant drop in U.S. job vacancies to a 10-month low has heightened the focus on the employment report, with expectations that weak data could lead to greater market bets on a more aggressive easing policy from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The one-week volatility of the euro has surged to a two-month high, coinciding with the upcoming European Central Bank meeting and U.S. inflation data release [2] - An options indicator tracking the difference between implied and realized volatility has shown that contract premiums have reached their highest level since January [2]

Core Insights - Wall Street strategists indicate that certain economic indicators, such as the August CPI and employment reports, may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on monetary easing [1] - The strategist maintains a target for the S&P 500 index, projecting it to reach 6,600 points by the end of 2025 and 7,700 points by the end of next year, with a subjective probability of 55% for this baseline scenario [1] - If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates as expected in September, a "bull market" is more likely to occur, potentially pushing the index to 7,000 points by the end of 2025, with the 2026 bull market expected to be driven by earnings [1]