（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周二（9月23日）纽约尾盘，标普500股指期货最终跌0.51%，道指期货跌0.14%，纳斯达 克100股指期货跌0.69%。罗素2000股指期货跌0.23%。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating [1][5] - The core logic is the game between the short - term profit - taking willingness of funds and the long - and medium - term policy positive expectation fermentation [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is weakly oscillating, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term profit - taking willingness of funds and long - and medium - term policy positive expectation fermentation [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation [5] - Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and sorted in a narrow range. The full - day trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 214.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.69 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - The LPR interest rate in September remained unchanged, and the central bank made a net investment in the open market, indicating that the central bank kept the market liquidity stable before the long holiday [5] - There are certain differences in market sentiment. On one hand, there is still a demand for profit - taking of profitable funds; on the other hand, policy positive expectations and the inflow trend of funds constitute the long - and medium - term driving force for the upward movement of the stock index [5] - In terms of policy, the credit and inflation data in August were weak, and the consumption growth rate slowed down, indicating weak demand from the real sector. There is a strong expectation of introducing policies to stabilize demand in October, and policy positive expectations are gradually fermenting [5] - In terms of funds, there is a sign that residents' deposits are changing to non - bank deposits, indicating a change in investors' wealth allocation direction. Coupled with the high - level operation of the margin trading balance, it shows that the stock market continues to attract incremental funds [5] - In the future, focus on the game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations [5]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周一（9月22日）纽约尾盘，标普500股指期货最终涨0.42%，道指期货涨0.12%，纳斯达 克100股指期货涨0.51%。罗素2000股指期货涨0.63%。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is wide - range fluctuation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is weak fluctuation. The core logic lies in the game between short - term capital profit - taking intention and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy favorable expectations [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is weakly oscillating, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term capital profit - taking intention and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy favorable expectations [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. Last Friday, each stock index oscillated and consolidated in a narrow range. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 234.94 billion yuan, a decrease of 81.72 billion yuan from the previous day. There are differences in the market. On one hand, there is still a demand for profit - taking of profitable funds; on the other hand, policy favorable expectations and the inflow trend of funds constitute the medium - and long - term driving force for the upward movement of the stock index. The confidence of investors to continue to chase the rise is insufficient, and the profit - taking intention rises. The credit and inflation data in August were weak, and the consumption growth slowed down, indicating weak demand in the real sector, so the expectation of introducing policies to stabilize demand is strong. In terms of funds, the non - bank deposits increased significantly in July and August, and the balance of margin trading remained at a high level, indicating that the stock market continued to attract incremental funds. In the short term, the stock index is expected to mainly show wide - range fluctuations [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term repair trend of the stock market has not reversed, and the short - term adjustment is mainly due to the steep upward slope and external regulation. The stock market does not have much room for a significant decline. After the shock last week, the weighted indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index have started to show a high - level shock pattern, and the slow - bull feature of A - shares is clear [1][2] - In the short term, the news of the Sino - US presidential call after the market on Friday and the new positive real - estate policy in Shanghai may still boost market sentiment. During the upcoming National Day holiday, trading is expected to turn light. Without black swan events, the index is expected to continue the range - bound pattern. In October, new variables such as policies and Sino - US geopolitics should be monitored [2] - Factors to watch include domestic policy trends and Sino - US geopolitical news [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Spot Market Review - Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. Among them, the Brazilian BOVESPA index rose 2.53%, the Nasdaq rose 2.21%, while the CSI 300 Financial index fell 4.06%, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.30% [8][10] - Since 2025, major domestic indices have generally risen. The ChiNext Index has risen 44.3%, the SME Board Index has risen 25.9%, and the Shenzhen Component Index has risen 25.5% [8] 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, among the stock index futures main contracts, the IM2509 contract had the largest increase and the largest amplitude. The trading volume of stock index futures first rose and then fell, and the open interest declined [12][15][18] - The cross - variety ratio and basis of stock index futures main contracts also showed certain trends [20] 3.3 Index Valuation Tracking - As of September 19, the TTM price - to - earnings ratios of major domestic indices were as follows: the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.35 times, the CSI 300 Index was 13.95 times, the SSE 50 Index was 11.53 times, the CSI 500 Index was 34.29 times, and the CSI 1000 Index was 47.38 times [21][22] 3.4 Market Fund Flow Review - The share of newly established equity - biased funds and the margin trading balance in the two markets showed certain trends. The capital interest rate price rebounded last week, and the central bank had a net investment [24] 4. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels of IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set with reference to 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4] - Trend strategy: Buy on dips. It is expected that the core operating range of the IF2510 main contract of IF is between 4352 and 4577 points; the IH2510 main contract of IH is between 2840 and 2971 points; the IC2510 main contract of IC is between 6892 and 7354 points; the IM2510 main contract of IM is between 7087 and 7564 points [4] - Cross - variety strategy: Participate in the short - term strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index is "Volatility" [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the A-share market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with obvious divergence in market confidence. The A-share market pricing is confusing and shows obvious characteristics of building a top at a high level. It is recommended to take appropriate profit-taking [2][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. One-week Views and Overview of Key Macroeconomic Events - **Next Week's Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the change in risk appetite after the Sino-US talks. It is recommended to take appropriate profit-taking due to the confusing pricing clues and obvious high-level topping characteristics in the current A-share market [2][10] - **This Week's Key Events**: - On September 15, an important article by the national leader will be published in Qiushi Magazine, aiming to rectify chaos in enterprise competition and government procurement [11] - On September 15, the economic data for August showed a weakening trend, with declines in consumption, industrial added value, investment, etc [12] - On September 16, 9 departments jointly issued policies to expand service consumption [13] - On September 16, the Premier of the State Council investigated new quality productivity-related fields [14] - On September 17, the Ministry of Commerce will select 50 new consumption pilot cities [15] - On September 18, it was reported that China's R & D investment intensity in 2024 exceeded the EU average [16] - On September 19, the President of China had a phone call with the President of the United States [17] - On September 19, the State Council executive meeting studied policies on implementing domestic product standards in government procurement [18] 2. One-week Market Quotes Overview - **Global Stock Market Weekly Overview**: From September 15 - 19, global stock markets denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index increased by 0.99%, with emerging markets (+1.55%) > developed markets (+0.97%) > frontier markets (-0.01%). The Dutch stock market led the world with a 6.23% increase, while the Australian stock market performed the worst with a 2.17% decline [20] - **Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview**: During the same period, Chinese equity assets were differentiated, with Hong Kong stocks > Chinese concept stocks > A-shares. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2518.1 billion yuan, a 191.4 billion yuan increase from last week. The ChiNext Index rose 2.34%, performing the best, while the Shanghai 50 Index fell 1.98%, performing poorly [23] - **Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets**: Most global GICS primary industries rose this week, with the information technology industry leading (+2.47%) and the real estate industry performing poorly (-1.32%). In the Chinese market, the real estate industry led the rise (+1.94%), while the financial industry lagged (-3.90%) [27] - **Weekly Overview of China's A-share CITIC Primary Industries**: This week, 16 out of the A-share CITIC primary industries rose (26 last week), and 14 fell (4 last week). The coal industry led the rise (+3.59%), while the banking industry lagged the most (-4.09%) [30] - **Weekly Overview of China's A-share Style**: The large-cap growth style was dominant this week [34] - **Overview of Futures Basis**: Information on the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months is provided [37][41] 3. Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - **Broad-based Index Valuation**: Valuation data such as PE and PB of various broad-based indexes this week, their eight-year percentile, and changes from the beginning of the year are presented [42] - **Primary Industry Valuation**: Valuation data such as PE and PB of various primary industries this week, their eight-year percentile, and changes from the beginning of the year are presented [43] - **Broad-based Index Equity Risk Premium**: The ERP of the CSI 300 rose rapidly this week, while that of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 declined slightly [44][49] - **Consensus Earnings Growth Forecast for Broad-based Indexes**: The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was raised to 7.40%, and in 2026 was lowered to 8.53%. For the CSI 500, the 2025 rate was lowered to 32.14%, and the 2026 rate was raised to 18.08%. For the CSI 1000, the 2025 rate was raised to 38.54%, and the 2026 rate was lowered to 20.77% [50] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: This week, the 10-year bond yield declined, the 1-year yield rose, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 97.7, and the offshore RMB was 7.11 [56] - **Trading Capital Tracking**: This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds increased by 12 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 50.8 billion yuan [59] - **Capital Inflow Tracking through ETFs**: There are 29 ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 39 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 600 million shares, the CSI 500 by 200 million shares, the CSI 1000 by 300 million shares, and the CSI A500 by 500 million shares [62][66] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macroeconomic High-frequency Data - **Supply Side**: The tire production rate rebounded slightly [69] - **Consumption Side**: Real estate transactions remained sluggish, but the year-on-year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales rebounded, and the crude oil price dropped to around $67 per barrel [77][87] - **Inflation Observation**: The prices of production materials weakened, while agricultural product prices rebounded [89]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 futures rose by 0.42% at the end of trading on Friday, September 19 [1] - The Dow futures increased by 0.29% [1] - The Nasdaq 100 futures saw a rise of 0.64% [1] - The Russell 2000 futures declined by 0.73% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices generally rose this week, except for the Shanghai Composite Index. The four stock index futures showed mixed performance, with small and medium-cap stocks performing better, ranked as IM > IC > IF > IH in terms of strength. The market trading activity increased slightly. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the RMB first rose and then fell. Domestically, economic data in August was under pressure, but financial data indicated improved consumer willingness. The stock index still has long-term upward potential, and it is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [5][98]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures: IF2512 had a weekly decline of 0.72%, IH2512 fell 1.89%, IC2512 dropped 0.07%, and IM2512 rose 0.24%. - Spot: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell 0.44%, the Shanghai 50 Index dropped 1.98%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.32%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.21% [8]. 3.2 News Overview - Economic data in August was weak: industrial added value, social retail sales, fixed - asset investment, real estate development investment all declined, and the unemployment rate rose. - The Ministry of Commerce and other nine departments issued policies to expand service consumption. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time this year [11][12]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - Domestic major indices: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.14%, the STAR 50 Index rose 1.84%, the SME 100 Index rose 1.99%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.34%. - Overseas major indices: The S&P 500 rose 0.72%, the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.59%, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.59%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 0.62%. - Industry sectors: Bank and non - ferrous metal sectors weakened significantly, while coal and power equipment sectors led the gains. - Industry main funds: Most industries had net outflows, with the electronics sector having a large net outflow. - SHIBOR short - term interest rates increased, but the capital price was still at a low level. - This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 14.536 billion yuan in the secondary market, the restricted - share lifting market value was 181.127 billion yuan, and northbound funds traded a total of 1.234444 trillion yuan. - The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM fluctuated [16][17][21][25][29][32]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The stock index has long - term upward potential. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [98].

Report Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, for different financial derivatives, the outlooks are as follows: - **Stock Index Futures**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [7] - **Stock Index Options**: Oscillating [8] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Oscillating [8] Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: The technology sector has a short - term advantage. Short - term adjustments are mainly due to capital reallocation, while the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the possibility of configuring IM long positions, as technology stocks have a comparative advantage [1][7] - **Stock Index Options**: Trading is driven by intraday reversals. It is recommended to use covered strategies and closely monitor volatility changes. When volatility rises abnormally, the selling side of options can temporarily exit the market [2][8] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The impact of the stock - bond seesaw effect is weakening. In the short term, the central bank's attitude towards the capital market is supportive for the short - end, while the long - end yield of bonds is still affected by risk appetite and policy expectations. Short - term attention can be paid to long - end arbitrage opportunities and the opportunity for the yield curve to steepen [3][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The market first rose and then declined. The STAR Market once soared, and the technology sector continued to attract capital. However, the loss - making effect in the afternoon increased, and value stocks led the decline [1][7] - **Key Phenomena**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, commodities were generally weak, and the slightly hawkish stance boosted the US dollar, putting pressure on commodities and value stocks. Brokerages and stock - trading software were sluggish, and funds avoided areas with concentrated chips. The proportion of stocks outperforming the Wind All - A Index decreased, indicating that funds were flowing into relatively crowded areas, causing downward pressure on weak stocks [1][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold IM [7] Stock Index Options - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume in the options market was 21.04 billion yuan, a 62.60% increase from the previous trading day, driven by intraday reversals [2][7] - **Market Characteristics**: The positive delta exposure of sellers decreased, and there were signs of a slight rebound in the skewness index and a significant increase in the ratio PCR. The implied volatility of some products decreased significantly at the end of the session, presumably due to the impact of intraday put - buying profit - taking [2][8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Use covered strategies [8] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose, with a larger increase at the long - end [3][8] - **Capital Situation**: The central bank's net injection of 195 billion yuan did not ease the tight capital situation in the inter - bank market. The DR001 weighted average interest rate rose above 1.5%, which was negative for the short - end of the bond market. The decline in the equity market had limited impact on boosting the bond market sentiment, and the long - end yield rose more [3][9] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a cautiously oscillating trend strategy. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, focus on long - end arbitrage opportunities. For curve strategies, pay attention to the opportunity for the yield curve to steepen [9] 2. Economic Calendar - The report provides the economic data of different regions from September 15 to September 19, 2025, including China's social consumer goods retail sales, industrial added value, the eurozone's economic sentiment index, the US retail sales, import price index, federal funds rate, and Japan's CPI [10] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September, and the dot - plot median shows that there is still room for a 50bp interest - rate cut within the year. The Bank of England maintained its policy interest rate unchanged in September and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening, warning of the risk of a wage - price spiral [11] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report includes data monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the given text [12][16][28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint The report presents a daily data tracking of stock index futures on September 18, 2025, including the performance of major stock indices, the impact of sector movements on these indices, the basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and the points difference and annualized costs during futures contract roll - overs. 3. Summary by Directory Index Trends - On September 18, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.15% to close at 3831.66 points, with a trading volume of 1365.962 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.06% to 13075.66 points, with a trading volume of 1769.195 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index declined 1.04%, with a trading volume of 654.023 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index fell 0.83%, with a trading volume of 604.239 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index dropped 1.35%, with a trading volume of 225.774 billion yuan; the SSE 300 Index decreased 1.16%, with a trading volume of 839.987 billion yuan [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 78.41 points from the previous close, with the computer and non - ferrous metals sectors having a significant downward pull [2]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 60.16 points, with the communication sector having an upward pull and the computer, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals sectors having a downward pull [2]. - The SSE 300 Index declined 52.91 points, with the electronics sector having an upward pull and the power equipment, bank, and non - bank finance sectors having a downward pull [2]. - The SSE 50 Index dropped 39.95 points, with the electronics sector having an upward pull and the food and beverage, non - bank finance, and bank sectors having a downward pull [2]. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 10.97, IM01 of - 77.58, IM02 of - 228.34, and IM03 of - 431.8 [12]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 12.09, IC01 of - 71.04, IC02 of - 190.65, and IC03 of - 354.99 [12]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 4.86, IF01 of - 15.27, IF02 of - 41.07, and IF03 of - 67.9 [12]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.7, IH01 of - 1.84, IH02 of - 2.08, and IH03 of 0.78 [12]. Stock Index Futures Contract Roll - over Points Difference and Annualized Costs - Detailed data on the points difference and annualized costs during the roll - over of IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different time intervals (15 - minute averages) are provided, including values such as IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02, etc., and their corresponding annualized costs [19][20][23][24].