每经AI快讯，10月21日，沪深300指数期货上涨2%，至4595点。 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 == 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/10/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.47 | 0.00 | DR007 | 1.59 | 2.25 | | स्ट | GC001 | 1.16 | -6.00 | GC007 | 1.45 | -1.00 | | TD | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | 0.20 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | 1.47 | 0.00 | 5年期国债 | 1.59 | 2.25 | | 场 | 10年期国债 | 1.77 | 2.10 | 10年期美债 | 4.02 | 1.80 | | 与 | | | 回顾:央行昨日开展了1890亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1. ...

每经AI快讯，10月9日，沪深300指数期货上涨2.0%至4713.80点。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oscillation - Medium - short - term: Bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the overall situation of domestic news was stable, and the issue of the U.S. government shutdown continued to ferment overseas, but the actual impact on peripheral stock indices was limited. The contribution of foreign capital to the A - share index rally was not high, so the subsequent international influence was limited. With the expectation of narrowing Sino - U.S. interest rate differentials, macro - level risks were basically cleared, and the stock index entered a stage where it was more likely to rise than fall. In the short term, the pre - holiday market was in a high - level consolidation state, and the main contradiction between bulls and bears was the improvement of long - term fundamentals versus high short - term valuations. The time point for breaking the deadlock in October might be around the Fourth Plenary Session on the 20th. The small - cap cyclical style (including the previously undervalued optional consumer industry) was expected to be the direction of post - holiday capital speculation, but the rotation speed within the sector was expected to be relatively fast. Technology stocks remained the medium - term main line, but the short - term cost - performance was not high. Attention should be paid to the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - From October 1st to 8th, the cumulative cross - regional personnel flow in the whole society was expected to exceed 2.432 billion person - times, a record high, with an average daily flow of 304 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The Fed's September meeting minutes showed that Fed officials were willing to cut interest rates further this year, but many officials were cautious due to inflation concerns. Most participants believed that further easing of policies might be appropriate for the rest of the year [5]. 3.2 Stock Index Disk Review - **Market Tracking**: On the last trading day before the holiday, the A - share market oscillated at a high level. Among the four major indices, the SSE 50 rose 0.53%, the CSI 300 rose 0.45%, the CSI 500 rose 0.84%, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.03%. In terms of sectors, aerospace and military industry (+3.45%) and basic metals (+3.04%) led the gains, while communication equipment (-1.71%) and insurance (-1.38%) lagged behind. More than 2,600 stocks rose, and 63 stocks hit the daily limit, with a relatively poor profit - making effect [5]. - **Technical Tracking**: There were high - level divergences on the daily line. The CSI 300 and CSI 500 were stronger than the SSE 50 and CSI 1000. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support and pressure between the "20 - day moving average + September 4th low - previous high". The weekly and monthly lines maintained an upward trend, and the medium - term bullish signal continued [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The pre - holiday trading volume of A - shares narrowed to about 2.1 trillion yuan. The willingness of funds to enter the market before the long holiday decreased, but it was still at a relatively high level in history [5]. 3.3 Core Logic Summary - After the holiday, the stock index was expected to continue the oscillation pattern with enlarged overall fluctuations. Trend traders were not recommended to chase high on the first trading day after the holiday. They could consider gradually increasing positions when the index pulled back to the 20 - day moving average or the low point in early September. If the long positions had achieved profits before the October meeting, they could take profits and exit in a timely manner [3]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - **Futures Operation**: Considering that the stock index failed to break through effectively before the holiday, trend traders were not recommended to chase high on the first trading day after the holiday. They could consider gradually increasing positions when the index pulled back to the 20 - day moving average or the low point in early September [4]. - **Options Operation**: The implied volatility declined before the holiday. The average IV of the CSI 300 for the current month fluctuated around 18%, which was at a medium - high level in history. Considering the limited news fluctuations during the holiday, the volatility was expected to decline slightly after the holiday, and the overall operation cost - performance was limited. It was recommended to wait for the volatility to rise before intervening in double - selling [4].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On September 15th, the three major A-share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26% to close at 3860.50 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.63% to 13005.77 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.52% to 3066.18 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 2277.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 243.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4533.06, up 11.06 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 15th, the coke weighted index trended stronger in a fluctuating manner, closing at 1700.9, up 75.5. The coking coal weighted index was strong, closing at 1196.6 yuan, up 53.1. Coke is facing a second - round price cut. The current iron - water output is 2405500 tons, an increase of 117100 tons. The coke inventory is moderately high, and the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 35 yuan/ton. For coking coal, the price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal is 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the futures market. The market has fully priced in three Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Fed will announce interest rate decisions on September 17th, October 29th, and December 10th. The supply at the mine end has recovered, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has declined for 4 consecutive weeks, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for 3 consecutive months. The supply has decreased, the inventory has decreased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory is at a moderate level [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Supported by factors such as the rebound of US sugar on Friday and the stable spot price, the short - covering of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract led to an upward trend on Monday. The USDA's September supply - demand report shows that the estimated total sugar production in the US for the 2025/26 crushing season is 9.47 million short tons, and the sugar inventory/consumption ratio is estimated to be 16.2% [2]. Rubber - Boosted by factors such as the increase in Southeast Asian spot prices and the stabilization of crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber trended higher on Monday. The night - session fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. In July 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production was 35884 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5% and a month - on - month increase of 36.7%. As of the end of July 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber inventory increased by 15.5% to 171061 tons [3]. Palm Oil - On September 15th, the palm oil futures fluctuated upward within the range. The main contract P2601 closed with a doji - like candlestick. The highest price was 9442, the lowest was 9318, and the closing price was 9422, up 1.36% from the previous day. From September 1 - 15th, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 742648 tons, a 2.6% increase from the same period last month. As of September 12th, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 641500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22200 tons, or 3.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 128000 tons, or 24.92% [3]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 15th, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The seasonal harvest pressure is emerging. As of the week ending September 14th, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 63%, and the harvest rate is 5%, in line with market expectations. As of September 11th, the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season has reached 0.12% of the expected total area, and drought in the central - western region may disrupt the sowing work. Domestically, on September 15th, the main contract of soybean meal M2601 closed at 3042 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2%. Currently, the import volume of soybeans is large, the supply is sufficient, the factory's operating rate is high, the crushing volume remains at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory continues to rise. However, due to the lack of a trade agreement between China and the US, there is still an expectation of tightened long - term soybean imports. Overall, the market is mixed with long and short factors, and the soybean meal price will maintain a volatile trend [4]. Live Pigs - On September 15th, the main contract LH2511 closed at 13745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4%. In September, the production capacity is in the concentrated realization stage, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has increased, the group pig enterprises have a high slaughter plan, and the daily average slaughter has increased month - on - month. Although it is approaching the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption peak season, the recovery of terminal consumption is slow, and it is difficult to form strong support in the short term. The live - pig futures price may maintain a low - level volatile trend [5]. Shanghai Copper - The market believes that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 100%, and the market bets on three rate cuts this year, which keeps the US Treasury yield at a low level and supports the Shanghai copper price. Fundamentally, the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has stopped production due to wet - material blockage, and the resumption time is uncertain, which intensifies the global shortage of copper concentrates and is beneficial to copper prices. However, in the week ending September 12th, the social inventory of Shanghai copper increased by 14.91% to 94054 tons, reaching a two - and - a - half - month high, weakening the support of low inventory on prices. Currently, at a high copper price, downstream buyers are mainly on the sidelines, the rigid demand procurement is limited, the release of peak - season demand is weak, and the willingness to chase the price is limited. The upward pressure on copper prices persists. Technically, Shanghai copper is expected to run strongly in the short term but may face certain pressure at high levels [5]. Iron Ore - On September 15th, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and closed lower, with a decline of 0.31%, closing at 796 yuan. Last week, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased week - on - week, and the arrival volume also decreased slightly. The supply has tightened, the iron - water output has returned to a high level, and steel mills still have the demand for replenishing stocks. The supply has decreased while the demand has increased, and the short - term iron ore price is in a volatile trend [6]. Asphalt - On September 15th, the main contract of asphalt 2511 fluctuated and closed lower, with a decline of 0.29%, closing at 3393 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased week - on - week, the asphalt manufacturers' shipment volume decreased, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The inventory level remained flat week - on - week. Due to weather factors, the current demand shows the characteristic of a peak season without a peak, and the fundamental driving force is still limited. The short - term asphalt price will mainly operate in a volatile manner [6]. Cotton - On Monday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13910 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 118 lots compared with the previous trading day. The purchase price of hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang is firm, which boosts market sentiment to a certain extent [6]. Logs - On September 15th, the log futures opened at 798.5, with a minimum of 794.5, a maximum of 806.5, and closed at 804.5, with an increase of 709 lots in positions. The futures price rebounded and touched the 60 - day moving average of 334. Pay attention to the support at the 800 mark and the pressure at 810. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu is 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spot trading is weak. Pay attention to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on prices [6][7]. Steel - On September 15th, rb2601 closed at 3136 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3370 yuan/ton. From January to August, the industrial added value continued to grow rapidly, and the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries showed good momentum. However, the investment growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing have slowed down, and the real estate market is still in a downward cycle, resulting in a slow improvement in steel demand during the "Golden September". The National Bureau of Statistics said that in the next stage, it will strengthen the governance of over - capacity in key industries, advocate against disorderly competition among enterprises, and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. On Monday, the "double - coke" futures rose sharply, pushing up the cost and driving up the steel price. Considering the general balance of supply and demand in the steel market, the continuous rise of steel prices is questionable, and it may run slightly stronger in a volatile manner in the short term [8]. Alumina - On September 15th, ao2601 closed at 2935 yuan/ton. Although there is no new production capacity coming on - stream in September, due to the stable output of new production capacity added in the first half of the year and the continuous resumption of production of some enterprises' overhauled production lines, the spot supply will be further relaxed, increasing the downward pressure on market prices. In terms of demand, the operation of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants is relatively stable, the long - term order demand for alumina is relatively stable, but the spot bulk order transactions may weaken. With the increase in the delivery - warehouse capacity and the market - circulating spot, the downstream aluminum plants' willingness to bargain for lower prices when purchasing has increased [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 15th, al2510 closed at 21020 yuan/ton. The improvement of the global economic outlook and the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts are important macro - factors supporting the rise of aluminum prices. The US dollar index has weakened periodically, which is beneficial to commodities priced in US dollars. The macro - environment continues to send positive signals, enhancing the market's optimistic sentiment towards the aluminum demand outlook. Domestic and foreign investors and traders have increased their purchases, driving up the aluminum price. As the National Day holiday approaches, the recovery of demand and the increase in the proportion of direct delivery of ingots to terminals will trigger a turning point in inventory. The domestic aluminum market is expected to start a destocking cycle, but whether this turning point is stable still needs further verification from subsequent data [9].

Group 1 - The CSI 300 index futures rose by 2% to reach 4420.80 points on September 5 [1]

Variety Views - On August 27, A-share's three major indexes rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.76% to 3,800.35, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.43% to 12,295.07, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.69% to 2,723.20. The trading volume of the two markets exceeded 3 trillion for the third time, reaching 3.1656 trillion, a significant increase of 486.5 billion from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index adjusted on August 27, closing at 4,386.13, a decrease of 66.46 [1]. - On August 27, the weighted coke index remained weak, closing at 1,669.4, a decline of 45.9 [1]. - On August 27, the weighted coking coal index fluctuated weakly, closing at 1,149.0 yuan, a decrease of 45.8 [2]. - Affected by Conab's reduction of Brazil's sugar production forecast, ICE sugar futures rose slightly on Tuesday. However, due to weak consumption and lower spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract fell slightly on Wednesday and continued to decline slightly at night [3]. - Affected by falling crude oil prices and a sharp stock market decline, Shanghai rubber futures fell on Wednesday. However, heavy rain in rubber - producing areas due to a typhoon limited the decline. At night, it fluctuated and closed slightly lower [4]. - On August 27, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. With favorable growing conditions in the US, the probability of weather speculation this year has decreased significantly, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. In the domestic market, the M2601 contract closed at 3,045 yuan/ton on August 27, down 1.17%. High soybean crushing volume, increased inventory, and weakening cost support led to a weakening trend in soybean meal prices [5][6]. - On August 27, the LH2511 live - hog contract closed at 13,745 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. At the supply end, some pig farms have completed their monthly sales plans, but the supply of suitable - weight pigs is still sufficient. At the demand end, with the approaching of the school season and the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, consumption is expected to improve, but the actual recovery is restricted by factors such as consumer willingness and the economic environment [6]. - On August 27, palm oil futures maintained a high - level and narrow - range oscillation. The P2601 contract closed at 9,500. According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 were 933,437 tons, a 36.41% increase from the same period last month [7]. - Trump's dismissal of Fed governor Cook raised concerns about the Fed's independence, strengthening the US dollar and suppressing copper demand. However, the tight supply of copper concentrates and strong demand in the new energy sector supported Shanghai copper prices [7]. - On Wednesday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14,095 yuan/ton. On August 28, the basis price at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was at least 900 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 118 lots [7]. - On August 27, the log 2511 contract opened at 821.5, with a low of 813.5, a high of 825.5, and closed at 814.5, with an increase of 1,473 lots in positions. The 60 - day moving average provided support at 813 and resistance at 827. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. Higher overseas prices drove up domestic futures prices. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and spot trading is weak [8]. - On August 27, the rb2510 steel rebar contract closed at 3,111 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3,349 yuan/ton. There is still pressure in the spot market, and strong raw material prices provide cost support. The steel market lacks upward momentum in the short term and is likely to continue narrow - range oscillation [8]. - On August 27, the ao2601 alumina contract closed at 3,046 yuan/ton. High inventories of upstream manufacturers led to an influx of supply, highlighting a loose supply - demand situation. Weak downstream demand forced prices to return to a lower level [9][10]. - On August 27, the al2510 Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 20,810 yuan/ton. Some enterprises are stocking up for the peak season, but with the rebound of aluminum prices, terminal shipments and spot purchases have decreased. In the traditional off - season, demand is weak, and aluminum ingots are accumulating, suppressing spot premiums [10]. Impact Factors Coke and Coking Coal - In the coke market, port spot prices rose, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at 1,490 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. Many coke enterprises proposed an eighth price increase, but steel mills have not responded. Although profits have improved and production enthusiasm is high, environmental protection restrictions due to the parade have led to a decline in production. At the demand end, steel mills' production restrictions are concentrated at the end of the month, and the demand for coke is stable, but raw material arrivals are insufficient in some areas [3]. - In the coking coal market, the price of main coking coal in Luliang decreased by 25 yuan to 335 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market is strong, with some prices rising. Supply is unstable, auctions show mixed results, and mines are reluctant to lower prices due to low inventories and expected coke price increases [3]. Sugar - Conab reduced Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production forecast by 3.1% to 44.5 million tons compared with the April forecast. However, production is still expected to increase by 0.8% compared with the previous year [4]. Rubber - Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 7 months were 2.572 million tons, a 9.3% year - on - year increase [4]. Soybean Meal - The US soybean growing conditions are good, and the probability of weather - related speculation has decreased, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. In the domestic market, high soybean crushing volume has led to an increase in soybean meal inventory, and weakening cost support has reduced mills' motivation to support prices [6]. Aluminum - Some domestic aluminum enterprises are stocking up for the peak season, and the downstream operating rate has increased slightly. However, with the rebound of aluminum prices, terminal shipments and spot purchases have decreased. In the traditional off - season, demand is weak, and aluminum ingots are accumulating, suppressing spot premiums [10].

Group 1: Market Data and Central Bank Operations - DROO1 closed at 1.47 with a 2.26 bp increase, DR007 at 1.55 with a 3.08 bp increase, GC001 at 1.70 with a 46.50 bp increase, and GC007 at 1.60 with a 10.50 bp increase. SHBOR 3M was at 1.55 with a 0.10 bp increase, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change. 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds were at 1.39 (0.44 bp increase), 1.63 (-0.56 bp decrease), and 1.77 (-1.82 bp decrease) respectively, while 10 - year US treasury bonds were at 4.34 with a 1.00 bp increase [4] - The central bank conducted 580.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 114.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan [4] - The central bank released its Q2 2025 monetary policy report. Overseas, US tariff policies increase global economic recovery uncertainty and some economies have sticky inflation. Domestically, with measures to regulate low - price competition and boost consumption, the central bank believes there are more positive factors for a moderate recovery in price levels and expects an improvement. Monetary policy continues the tone of the Politburo meeting at the end of July, emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [4] Group 2: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed at 4223 (-0.38%), 2812 (-0.93%), 6655.3 (-0.19%), and 7242.8 (0.07%) respectively. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.5884 trillion yuan, a decrease of 175.8 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors showed more gains than losses, with sectors like automobile services, brewing, real - estate services leading the gains, and insurance, electronic chemicals, shipbuilding, and securities leading the losses [5] - Yesterday, stock indices rose first and then fell. Currently, the valuation still provides support. Taking the CSI 300 as an example, although the current P/E ratio has risen to 15.9 (at the 83% historical percentile), the equity risk premium (ERP) remains at a relatively high historical level (about the 68% percentile). This means that from the perspective of the relative cost - effectiveness of stock - bond investment, stocks can still provide higher potential return compensation compared to risk - free assets. With the liquidity support from Huijin, valuation factors are expected to continue to play a supporting role. At the macro level, attention should be paid to the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation and its potential impact on domestic interest - rate cut space [6] Group 3: Futures Contract Data - For IF, the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts had an annualized premium rate of 2.00%, 1.75%, 1.75%, and 1.84% respectively; for IH, -1.25%, -0.70%, -0.66%, and -0.52% respectively; for IC, 9.79%, 9.18%, 8.65%, and 8.12% respectively; for IM, 10.64%, 9.93%, 9.39%, and 9.26% respectively [7] - The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all decreased. IF trading volume decreased by 27.3 to 109,269, and open interest decreased by 5.6 to 258,257; IH trading volume decreased by 15.8 to 62,436, and open interest decreased by 3.3 to 103,724; IC trading volume decreased by 22.3 to 102,352, and open interest decreased by 2.3 to 220,750; IM trading volume decreased by 19.4 to 236,188, and open interest decreased by 4.0 to 376,950 [5]

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On July 29, A-share market's three major indices rose collectively, with Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index hitting new highs for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% to 3609.71 points, Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64% to 11289.41 points, and ChiNext Index rose 1.86% to 2406.59 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1803.2 billion yuan, an increase of 60.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index showed a strengthening trend on July 29, closing at 4152.02, up 16.2 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 29, the weighted coke index showed a weak oscillation, closing at 1656.9, down 35.4; the weighted coking coal index maintained a consolidation trend, closing at 1170.5 yuan, down 43.7 [2][3]. - For coke, the spot price at ports decreased, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at 1400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in Tangshan and Tianjin raised the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton from July 29, 2025. After the fourth price increase, coking enterprises transferred costs to steel mills, and the overall start - up of coking enterprises was stable. After the previous price increase, steel enterprises' profit per ton of steel was generally over 200 yuan/ton, but after the rapid price increase, the exchange took cooling measures, and some participants began to sell actively [4]. - For coking coal, the price of main coking coal in Lvliang area decreased by 118 yuan to 1331 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was weak. Some traders lowered prices due to the fear of high prices after the futures limit - down. Some steel mills in Tangshan and Tianjin accepted the fourth price increase of coke. Currently, coking enterprises' production profit is in a loss of about 50 yuan/ton [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Boosted by the rising crude oil price, US sugar rebounded on Monday. Affected by the rise of US sugar, short - sellers closed positions, driving the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract to rise on Tuesday. At night, the contract fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. Analysts expect Brazil's central - southern region to have a sugarcane crushing volume of 48.3 million tons in the first half of July, a sugar output of 3.3 million tons, and an ethanol output of 2.19 billion liters in July, with year - on - year increases of 11.3%, 12.5%, and 2.3% respectively [5]. Rubber - Due to the large short - term decline, Shanghai rubber oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on Tuesday. At night, it continued to consolidate and closed slightly higher. In June 2025, China's car tire dealer price composite index was 94.06, down 0.51% month - on - month; the truck and bus tire dealer price composite index was 99.08, down 0.29% month - on - month [6][7]. Soybean Meal - In the international market on July 29, CBOT soybean futures fell. The weather forecast showed lower temperatures and periodic rainfall in the US Midwest this week, enhancing the expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest. As of the week ending July 27, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, higher than expected. Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 12.05 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures price oscillated. Sufficient imported soybeans and high crushing volume in oil mills led to high soybean meal production and increased inventory, and the weakening of the US soybean market weakened cost support, so the soybean meal price may continue to be weak [7]. Live Pigs - On July 29, the live pig futures price was weak. Recently, the slaughtering sentiment of farmers was strong, and the supply of live pigs was abundant. High - temperature weather led to weak terminal consumption, and the consumption of pork was insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig market is in a stage of increasing supply. As of the end of June, the number of fertile sows was 40.43 million, 103.7% of the normal level, laying a foundation for abundant pig supply in the second half of the year [8]. Palm Oil - On July 28, palm oil fluctuated widely and then tested the support level again. The main contract P2509 closed with a small positive line with a long lower shadow, closing at 8970, up 0.27%. According to CIMB Securities, if Indonesia implements the B50 biofuel regulation, its domestic palm oil consumption demand may increase by 3 million tons, equivalent to 6.2% of its crude palm oil output in 2024. However, since August 1, 2025, the US has imposed additional import tariffs of 19% and 25% on Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil respectively [9]. Shanghai Copper - The approaching deadline of US tariff policies and the expected unchanged Fed interest rate are negative for copper prices. Fundamentally, supply is loose, and demand is weak. Inventory is at a low level. Technically, there is a possibility of a short - term trend reversal. Overall, copper prices will oscillate weakly, but the downward space may be limited due to low inventory [10]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,870 yuan/ton. On July 30, the lowest basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 70 lots compared with the previous day [11]. Iron Ore - On July 29, the main contract of iron ore 2509 oscillated and closed up 0.63% at 798 yuan. The global iron ore shipment increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. Iron ore demand remained resilient, and the short - term price may oscillate at a high level [11]. Asphalt - On July 29, the main contract of asphalt 2509 oscillated and closed up 0.78% at 3619 yuan. The asphalt production plan of local refineries in August decreased compared with July, and the demand recovery was slower than expected due to rainfall. The short - term price will fluctuate [11]. Logs - On July 29, the log futures contract 2509 opened at 828, with the lowest at 823.5, the highest at 838.5, and closed at 830, with a decrease of 1049 lots in positions. The spot market price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction, and the spot trading is weak [11][12]. Steel - On July 29, the rb2510 contract closed at 3347 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3503 yuan/ton. The steel market strengthened, possibly related to rumors of anti - involution and real estate meetings. The spot market quotation and trading strengthened, and the market's resistance to price drops increased, but market participation is difficult due to macro news [12]. Alumina - On July 29, the ao2509 contract closed at 3307 yuan/ton. The market sentiment driven by policies conflicts with the fundamentals. The demand for alumina from the electrolytic aluminum industry is weak. In the short - term, the market sentiment may reverse, and the operation risk increases. In the medium - term, the supply - demand structure is loose, and the price cannot deviate from the fundamentals for a long time [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 29, the al2509 contract closed at 20605 yuan/ton. With the approaching of the tariff suspension expiration date on August 1, the Fed's end - of - month interest - rate meeting, and important domestic economic meetings, the impact of macro events on the market should be noted. Fundamentally, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the spot trading is average. The accumulation of social inventory is within the seasonal range, and the low inventory level supports the price [13].

Core Insights - The main contract for the CSI 300 Index futures closed at 2509, with a slight decrease of 0.33% as of July 14, 2025, and a total trading volume of 76,000 contracts, which is a decrease of 8,350 contracts from the previous day [1][2] Trading Volume and Positions - The total trading volume for all contracts was 80,000 contracts, down from the previous day [1] - The top 20 positions showed a net short position with a difference of 17,993 contracts [1] Long and Short Positions - The top three long positions were held by Guotai Junan with 46,145 contracts, CITIC Futures with 28,694 contracts, and Haitong Futures with 16,051 contracts [1] - The top three short positions were held by CITIC Futures with 51,051 contracts, Guotai Junan with 32,045 contracts, and Haitong Futures with 16,908 contracts [1] Changes in Positions - The top two long position increases were from Guotou Futures with an increase of 720 contracts and Nanhua Futures with an increase of 419 contracts [1] - The top three long position decreases were from CITIC Futures with a decrease of 2,620 contracts, Guotai Junan with a decrease of 1,448 contracts, and Haitong Futures with a decrease of 994 contracts [1] - The only increase in short positions was from Huatai Futures with an increase of 92 contracts [1] - The top three short position decreases were from CITIC Futures with a decrease of 1,908 contracts, Guotai Junan with a decrease of 1,069 contracts, and Haitong Futures with a decrease of 698 contracts [1]