每经AI快讯，9月5日，沪深300指数期货上涨2%至4420.80点。 ...

Variety Views - On August 27, A-share's three major indexes rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.76% to 3,800.35, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.43% to 12,295.07, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.69% to 2,723.20. The trading volume of the two markets exceeded 3 trillion for the third time, reaching 3.1656 trillion, a significant increase of 486.5 billion from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index adjusted on August 27, closing at 4,386.13, a decrease of 66.46 [1]. - On August 27, the weighted coke index remained weak, closing at 1,669.4, a decline of 45.9 [1]. - On August 27, the weighted coking coal index fluctuated weakly, closing at 1,149.0 yuan, a decrease of 45.8 [2]. - Affected by Conab's reduction of Brazil's sugar production forecast, ICE sugar futures rose slightly on Tuesday. However, due to weak consumption and lower spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract fell slightly on Wednesday and continued to decline slightly at night [3]. - Affected by falling crude oil prices and a sharp stock market decline, Shanghai rubber futures fell on Wednesday. However, heavy rain in rubber - producing areas due to a typhoon limited the decline. At night, it fluctuated and closed slightly lower [4]. - On August 27, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. With favorable growing conditions in the US, the probability of weather speculation this year has decreased significantly, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. In the domestic market, the M2601 contract closed at 3,045 yuan/ton on August 27, down 1.17%. High soybean crushing volume, increased inventory, and weakening cost support led to a weakening trend in soybean meal prices [5][6]. - On August 27, the LH2511 live - hog contract closed at 13,745 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. At the supply end, some pig farms have completed their monthly sales plans, but the supply of suitable - weight pigs is still sufficient. At the demand end, with the approaching of the school season and the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, consumption is expected to improve, but the actual recovery is restricted by factors such as consumer willingness and the economic environment [6]. - On August 27, palm oil futures maintained a high - level and narrow - range oscillation. The P2601 contract closed at 9,500. According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 were 933,437 tons, a 36.41% increase from the same period last month [7]. - Trump's dismissal of Fed governor Cook raised concerns about the Fed's independence, strengthening the US dollar and suppressing copper demand. However, the tight supply of copper concentrates and strong demand in the new energy sector supported Shanghai copper prices [7]. - On Wednesday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14,095 yuan/ton. On August 28, the basis price at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was at least 900 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 118 lots [7]. - On August 27, the log 2511 contract opened at 821.5, with a low of 813.5, a high of 825.5, and closed at 814.5, with an increase of 1,473 lots in positions. The 60 - day moving average provided support at 813 and resistance at 827. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. Higher overseas prices drove up domestic futures prices. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and spot trading is weak [8]. - On August 27, the rb2510 steel rebar contract closed at 3,111 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3,349 yuan/ton. There is still pressure in the spot market, and strong raw material prices provide cost support. The steel market lacks upward momentum in the short term and is likely to continue narrow - range oscillation [8]. - On August 27, the ao2601 alumina contract closed at 3,046 yuan/ton. High inventories of upstream manufacturers led to an influx of supply, highlighting a loose supply - demand situation. Weak downstream demand forced prices to return to a lower level [9][10]. - On August 27, the al2510 Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 20,810 yuan/ton. Some enterprises are stocking up for the peak season, but with the rebound of aluminum prices, terminal shipments and spot purchases have decreased. In the traditional off - season, demand is weak, and aluminum ingots are accumulating, suppressing spot premiums [10]. Impact Factors Coke and Coking Coal - In the coke market, port spot prices rose, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at 1,490 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. Many coke enterprises proposed an eighth price increase, but steel mills have not responded. Although profits have improved and production enthusiasm is high, environmental protection restrictions due to the parade have led to a decline in production. At the demand end, steel mills' production restrictions are concentrated at the end of the month, and the demand for coke is stable, but raw material arrivals are insufficient in some areas [3]. - In the coking coal market, the price of main coking coal in Luliang decreased by 25 yuan to 335 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market is strong, with some prices rising. Supply is unstable, auctions show mixed results, and mines are reluctant to lower prices due to low inventories and expected coke price increases [3]. Sugar - Conab reduced Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production forecast by 3.1% to 44.5 million tons compared with the April forecast. However, production is still expected to increase by 0.8% compared with the previous year [4]. Rubber - Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 7 months were 2.572 million tons, a 9.3% year - on - year increase [4]. Soybean Meal - The US soybean growing conditions are good, and the probability of weather - related speculation has decreased, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. In the domestic market, high soybean crushing volume has led to an increase in soybean meal inventory, and weakening cost support has reduced mills' motivation to support prices [6]. Aluminum - Some domestic aluminum enterprises are stocking up for the peak season, and the downstream operating rate has increased slightly. However, with the rebound of aluminum prices, terminal shipments and spot purchases have decreased. In the traditional off - season, demand is weak, and aluminum ingots are accumulating, suppressing spot premiums [10].

Group 1: Market Data and Central Bank Operations - DROO1 closed at 1.47 with a 2.26 bp increase, DR007 at 1.55 with a 3.08 bp increase, GC001 at 1.70 with a 46.50 bp increase, and GC007 at 1.60 with a 10.50 bp increase. SHBOR 3M was at 1.55 with a 0.10 bp increase, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change. 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds were at 1.39 (0.44 bp increase), 1.63 (-0.56 bp decrease), and 1.77 (-1.82 bp decrease) respectively, while 10 - year US treasury bonds were at 4.34 with a 1.00 bp increase [4] - The central bank conducted 580.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 114.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan [4] - The central bank released its Q2 2025 monetary policy report. Overseas, US tariff policies increase global economic recovery uncertainty and some economies have sticky inflation. Domestically, with measures to regulate low - price competition and boost consumption, the central bank believes there are more positive factors for a moderate recovery in price levels and expects an improvement. Monetary policy continues the tone of the Politburo meeting at the end of July, emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [4] Group 2: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed at 4223 (-0.38%), 2812 (-0.93%), 6655.3 (-0.19%), and 7242.8 (0.07%) respectively. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.5884 trillion yuan, a decrease of 175.8 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors showed more gains than losses, with sectors like automobile services, brewing, real - estate services leading the gains, and insurance, electronic chemicals, shipbuilding, and securities leading the losses [5] - Yesterday, stock indices rose first and then fell. Currently, the valuation still provides support. Taking the CSI 300 as an example, although the current P/E ratio has risen to 15.9 (at the 83% historical percentile), the equity risk premium (ERP) remains at a relatively high historical level (about the 68% percentile). This means that from the perspective of the relative cost - effectiveness of stock - bond investment, stocks can still provide higher potential return compensation compared to risk - free assets. With the liquidity support from Huijin, valuation factors are expected to continue to play a supporting role. At the macro level, attention should be paid to the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation and its potential impact on domestic interest - rate cut space [6] Group 3: Futures Contract Data - For IF, the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts had an annualized premium rate of 2.00%, 1.75%, 1.75%, and 1.84% respectively; for IH, -1.25%, -0.70%, -0.66%, and -0.52% respectively; for IC, 9.79%, 9.18%, 8.65%, and 8.12% respectively; for IM, 10.64%, 9.93%, 9.39%, and 9.26% respectively [7] - The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all decreased. IF trading volume decreased by 27.3 to 109,269, and open interest decreased by 5.6 to 258,257; IH trading volume decreased by 15.8 to 62,436, and open interest decreased by 3.3 to 103,724; IC trading volume decreased by 22.3 to 102,352, and open interest decreased by 2.3 to 220,750; IM trading volume decreased by 19.4 to 236,188, and open interest decreased by 4.0 to 376,950 [5]

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On July 29, A-share market's three major indices rose collectively, with Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index hitting new highs for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% to 3609.71 points, Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64% to 11289.41 points, and ChiNext Index rose 1.86% to 2406.59 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1803.2 billion yuan, an increase of 60.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index showed a strengthening trend on July 29, closing at 4152.02, up 16.2 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 29, the weighted coke index showed a weak oscillation, closing at 1656.9, down 35.4; the weighted coking coal index maintained a consolidation trend, closing at 1170.5 yuan, down 43.7 [2][3]. - For coke, the spot price at ports decreased, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at 1400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in Tangshan and Tianjin raised the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton from July 29, 2025. After the fourth price increase, coking enterprises transferred costs to steel mills, and the overall start - up of coking enterprises was stable. After the previous price increase, steel enterprises' profit per ton of steel was generally over 200 yuan/ton, but after the rapid price increase, the exchange took cooling measures, and some participants began to sell actively [4]. - For coking coal, the price of main coking coal in Lvliang area decreased by 118 yuan to 1331 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was weak. Some traders lowered prices due to the fear of high prices after the futures limit - down. Some steel mills in Tangshan and Tianjin accepted the fourth price increase of coke. Currently, coking enterprises' production profit is in a loss of about 50 yuan/ton [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Boosted by the rising crude oil price, US sugar rebounded on Monday. Affected by the rise of US sugar, short - sellers closed positions, driving the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract to rise on Tuesday. At night, the contract fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. Analysts expect Brazil's central - southern region to have a sugarcane crushing volume of 48.3 million tons in the first half of July, a sugar output of 3.3 million tons, and an ethanol output of 2.19 billion liters in July, with year - on - year increases of 11.3%, 12.5%, and 2.3% respectively [5]. Rubber - Due to the large short - term decline, Shanghai rubber oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on Tuesday. At night, it continued to consolidate and closed slightly higher. In June 2025, China's car tire dealer price composite index was 94.06, down 0.51% month - on - month; the truck and bus tire dealer price composite index was 99.08, down 0.29% month - on - month [6][7]. Soybean Meal - In the international market on July 29, CBOT soybean futures fell. The weather forecast showed lower temperatures and periodic rainfall in the US Midwest this week, enhancing the expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest. As of the week ending July 27, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, higher than expected. Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 12.05 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures price oscillated. Sufficient imported soybeans and high crushing volume in oil mills led to high soybean meal production and increased inventory, and the weakening of the US soybean market weakened cost support, so the soybean meal price may continue to be weak [7]. Live Pigs - On July 29, the live pig futures price was weak. Recently, the slaughtering sentiment of farmers was strong, and the supply of live pigs was abundant. High - temperature weather led to weak terminal consumption, and the consumption of pork was insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig market is in a stage of increasing supply. As of the end of June, the number of fertile sows was 40.43 million, 103.7% of the normal level, laying a foundation for abundant pig supply in the second half of the year [8]. Palm Oil - On July 28, palm oil fluctuated widely and then tested the support level again. The main contract P2509 closed with a small positive line with a long lower shadow, closing at 8970, up 0.27%. According to CIMB Securities, if Indonesia implements the B50 biofuel regulation, its domestic palm oil consumption demand may increase by 3 million tons, equivalent to 6.2% of its crude palm oil output in 2024. However, since August 1, 2025, the US has imposed additional import tariffs of 19% and 25% on Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil respectively [9]. Shanghai Copper - The approaching deadline of US tariff policies and the expected unchanged Fed interest rate are negative for copper prices. Fundamentally, supply is loose, and demand is weak. Inventory is at a low level. Technically, there is a possibility of a short - term trend reversal. Overall, copper prices will oscillate weakly, but the downward space may be limited due to low inventory [10]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,870 yuan/ton. On July 30, the lowest basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 70 lots compared with the previous day [11]. Iron Ore - On July 29, the main contract of iron ore 2509 oscillated and closed up 0.63% at 798 yuan. The global iron ore shipment increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. Iron ore demand remained resilient, and the short - term price may oscillate at a high level [11]. Asphalt - On July 29, the main contract of asphalt 2509 oscillated and closed up 0.78% at 3619 yuan. The asphalt production plan of local refineries in August decreased compared with July, and the demand recovery was slower than expected due to rainfall. The short - term price will fluctuate [11]. Logs - On July 29, the log futures contract 2509 opened at 828, with the lowest at 823.5, the highest at 838.5, and closed at 830, with a decrease of 1049 lots in positions. The spot market price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction, and the spot trading is weak [11][12]. Steel - On July 29, the rb2510 contract closed at 3347 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3503 yuan/ton. The steel market strengthened, possibly related to rumors of anti - involution and real estate meetings. The spot market quotation and trading strengthened, and the market's resistance to price drops increased, but market participation is difficult due to macro news [12]. Alumina - On July 29, the ao2509 contract closed at 3307 yuan/ton. The market sentiment driven by policies conflicts with the fundamentals. The demand for alumina from the electrolytic aluminum industry is weak. In the short - term, the market sentiment may reverse, and the operation risk increases. In the medium - term, the supply - demand structure is loose, and the price cannot deviate from the fundamentals for a long time [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 29, the al2509 contract closed at 20605 yuan/ton. With the approaching of the tariff suspension expiration date on August 1, the Fed's end - of - month interest - rate meeting, and important domestic economic meetings, the impact of macro events on the market should be noted. Fundamentally, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the spot trading is average. The accumulation of social inventory is within the seasonal range, and the low inventory level supports the price [13].

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至7月14日收盘主力合约沪深300指数期货2509,涨跌-0.33%,成交量3.76万手，持仓数据显示前20席位 呈现净空，差额头寸为17993手。 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前一名分别是：华泰期货、持仓7138、增仓92；空头减仓前三名分别是：中信期货、持仓29046、 减仓-1908，国泰君安、持仓17333、减仓-1069，海通期货、持仓4243、减仓-698。 文章来源:新浪期货 来源：新浪期货 沪深300指数期货期货全合约总计成交8.00万手，比上一日减少8.35万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓19.13万手，比上一日减少1.45 万手。全合约前20席位空头持仓21.94万手，比上一日减少1.54万手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为国泰君安，总持仓46145、中信期货，总持仓28694、海通期货，总持仓16051；空头前三席位 为中信期货，总持仓51051、国泰君安，总持仓32045、海通期货，总持仓16908； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前二名分别是：国投期货、持仓6210、增仓720，南华期货、持仓2412、增仓419；多头减仓前三 名分别是：中信期货、持仓 ...

Core Insights - The main contract of the CSI 300 Index futures closed at 2509 with a change of +0.67% as of July 3, with a trading volume of 38,100 contracts and a net short position of 15,826 contracts among the top 20 positions [1][3]. Trading Volume and Positions - Total trading volume for all CSI 300 Index futures contracts reached 73,600 contracts, an increase of 2,786 contracts from the previous day [1][4]. - Among the top 20 positions, long positions totaled 169,200 contracts, a decrease of 1,429 contracts, while short positions totaled 194,900 contracts, a decrease of 932 contracts [1][4]. Major Players - The top three long positions were held by Guotai Junan with a total holding of 42,227 contracts, CITIC Futures with 25,235 contracts, and Haitong Futures with 15,072 contracts [1][4]. - The top three short positions were held by CITIC Futures with 44,160 contracts, Guotai Junan with 27,777 contracts, and Haitong Futures with 15,787 contracts [1][4]. Changes in Positions - The top three increases in long positions were from CITIC Futures (+385 contracts), Zhongtai Futures (+312 contracts), and Haitong Futures (+250 contracts) [1][4]. - The top three decreases in long positions were from Guotai Junan (-1,119 contracts), Shenyin Wanguo (-241 contracts), and Zheshang Futures (-181 contracts) [1][4]. - The top three increases in short positions were from CITIC Futures (+372 contracts), Zhongtai Futures (+333 contracts), and GF Futures (+119 contracts) [1][4]. - The top three decreases in short positions were from Guotai Junan (-1,281 contracts), Guoxin Futures (-318 contracts), and Zhongjin Wealth (-103 contracts) [1][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that it's not the right time to over - allocate commodities, and patience is needed. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond interest rate is expected to be in the range of 1.6 - 1.8%, and Treasury bond futures should be bought on dips. The stock index has a ceiling and a floor [2][3]. - In 2025, the US economy faces "stagflation" or "recession" risks, while China is on a long "re - inflation" path. Based on these economic judgments, there are corresponding trading opportunities and asset - allocation suggestions in the second half of 2025 [8][25][37]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Review of the First Half of 2025 - **Differentiation of Sino - US Commodities**: In the first half of 2025, US commodities first rose and then fell, while Chinese commodities were weak. Overseas, Trump's tariff policy and the trend of rising initial jobless claims and slowing new employment in the US affected commodity prices. The US had obvious inventory - replenishing imports, with imports from January to March reaching $1.2 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 23%, and retail and food service sales from January to March at $2.1 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Domestically, from March to April, the sales of commercial housing weakened, and the domestic demand was still weak. In May, China's PPI was - 3.3% and continued to decline. Exports were supported by the rush - to - export factor, but overall, under the high - interest - rate environment of the Fed, prices were under pressure [5][6]. 2. Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 2.1 The US: Risk of Economic "Soft Landing" to "Recession" - **Risk of "Stagflation" or "Recession"**: The US government's debt support for residents' income and consumption is difficult to sustain. The US government faces the pressure of reducing fiscal deficits (the fiscal deficit/GDP in 2024 - 25 was still as high as 6.8%). In April 2025, the US fiscal expenditure was $591.8 billion, and the 12 - month Rollsum was $7.09 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 11.8%; the fiscal revenue was $850.2 billion, and the 12 - month Rollsum was $5.06 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The annual deficit in April 2025 was $2.03 trillion, accounting for 6.8% of the US GDP in Q1 2025 [8][9]. - **Economic Slowdown**: The real GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2025 was - 0.2% on a quarter - on - quarter annualized basis, indicating an obvious economic slowdown. It is expected that the real GDP growth rate in 2025 will be between 1.6% - 2.3%, depending on the Fed's interest - rate cut speed and the realization of stable tax - cut policy expectations. Trump's policies have both positive and negative impacts on the US economy [19]. - **High Inflation and Interest - Rate Expectations**: Inflation may remain above the 2% target, forcing the Fed to maintain the policy interest rate above 3.5%. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the US federal funds rate will drop to 3.75%, and the first interest - rate cut in the second half of 2025 is expected to be in October [23]. 2.2 China: A Long "Re - inflation" Road - **Difficulty in PPI Recovery**: In May 2025, China's PPI was - 3.3% year - on - year, and CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year. Under the background of de - globalization and the reconstruction of the Chinese real - estate model, the path for China's PPI to turn positive is long and difficult. The slow recovery of commercial housing sales and M1, as well as the decline in US imports, will lead to a slow recovery of China's PPI [25]. - **Challenges in Inflation Upturn**: China's inflation upturn faces challenges, including the Fed's high - interest - rate policy, the difficulty of the real - estate price recovery, and over - capacity in some industries. To get out of deflation, China can observe three groups of variables: the continuous expansion of base money and stock money, the continuous resilience of external demand exports, and the maintenance of an "active fiscal policy" [25][31][33]. - **Monetary Policy Stance**: Monetary policy will maintain a supportive stance and strengthen the amplitude of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts. It is expected that in 2025, China's policy interest rate will be cut by 30 - 40BP in two installments, and the deposit - reserve ratio will be cut by 50 - 100BP in two installments [36]. 3. Allocation Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - **US Economic Situation and Asset Allocation**: It is expected that in the second half of 2025, the resilience of the US economy will decline, consumption and imports will fall, and private investment will be under pressure. The yield of US Treasury bonds will oscillate at a high level with a risk of decline; the US dollar will oscillate with a risk of further weakening; gold can still be bought on dips, but trading opportunities are not obvious. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield will oscillate between 3.8% - 4.5% and is expected to decline; the US dollar is expected to oscillate between 95 - 100 and tend to decline [37][38]. - **China's Economic Situation and Asset Allocation**: The active fiscal policy will support the Chinese economy, and the currency will be further loosened. It is expected that inflation will still be under pressure in the second half of 2025. There is still an expectation of a 30 - 40BP interest - rate cut in the monetary - policy end. With the support of liquidity, the A - share market will maintain active trading, and the yield of Treasury bonds will further decline. Before the policy supports the improvement of the fundamentals, commodity prices will still be suppressed by insufficient demand. The CSI 300 index is expected to be between 3400 - 4400 points; the yield of 10 - year Chinese Treasury bonds is expected to be between 1.6 - 1.8%; commodities are expected to oscillate weakly in the second half of 2025, and attention should be paid to the market opportunities in the third quarter of 2025 [37][38][39].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The trading data for the CSI 300 index futures as of June 18 shows a slight increase in the main contract price, with a net short position among the top 20 holders, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1]. Trading Volume and Positions - The main contract for the CSI 300 index futures closed at 2509, with a change of +0.20% and a trading volume of 30,000 contracts. The total trading volume for all contracts reached 105,700 contracts, an increase of 10,000 contracts from the previous day [1]. - The top 20 positions show a total long position of 175,800 contracts, an increase of 1,234 contracts, while the total short position is 198,000 contracts, an increase of 357 contracts [1]. Major Players - The top three long positions are held by Guotai Junan with a total holding of 40,023 contracts, CITIC Futures with 27,029 contracts, and Haitong Futures with 16,075 contracts. The top three short positions are held by CITIC Futures with 43,359 contracts, Guotai Junan with 26,465 contracts, and Haitong Futures with 16,304 contracts [1][4]. - Among the top 20 positions, the largest increase in long positions was seen in CITIC Futures (+851 contracts), Guotai Junan (+622 contracts), and Haitong Futures (+594 contracts). The largest decrease in long positions was in CITIC Jiantou (-213 contracts), Nanhua Futures (-106 contracts), and Donghai Futures (-39 contracts) [1][4]. Changes in Positions - The largest increase in short positions was recorded by Guotai Futures (+1,824 contracts), Yong'an Futures (+608 contracts), and Huatai Futures (+520 contracts). The only decrease in short positions was by Guoxin Futures (-199 contracts) [1][4].

Core Viewpoint - The trading data for the CSI 300 index futures shows a slight decline in the main contract, with a net short position among the top 20 positions, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Data Summary - As of June 17, the main contract for the CSI 300 index futures closed at 2509, with a change of -0.01% and a trading volume of 25,500 contracts, which is a decrease of 6,555 contracts from the previous day [1]. - The total trading volume for all contracts was 95,600 contracts, reflecting a decrease compared to the previous day [1]. - Among the top 20 positions, long positions totaled 176,100 contracts, an increase of 2,223 contracts, while short positions totaled 198,300 contracts, an increase of 2,162 contracts [1]. Group 2: Position Changes - The top three long positions were held by Guotai Junan with a total of 39,873 contracts, CITIC Futures with 26,454 contracts, and Haitong Futures with 15,519 contracts [1]. - The top three short positions were held by CITIC Futures with 43,821 contracts, Guotai Junan with 26,779 contracts, and Haitong Futures with 16,320 contracts [1]. - The largest increase in long positions among the top 20 was seen in CITIC Futures, which added 1,118 contracts, followed by Guotai Junan with an increase of 954 contracts [1][3].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: "大类资产早报" - Release Date: June 17, 2025 - Author: Research Center Macro Team [2] 2. Global Asset Market Performance 2.1 Major Economies' 10 - Year Treasury Yields - On June 16, 2025, yields varied across countries, e.g., the US was 4.448%, the UK was 4.532%, and China was 1.644%. - Changes in yields differed in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods. For example, the US had a latest change of 0.047%, a one - week change of - 0.028%, a one - month change of - 0.032%, and a one - year change of 0.172%. [3] 2.2 Major Economies' 2 - Year Treasury Yields - As of June 16, 2025, the US was 3.900%, the UK was 3.901%, and Germany was 1.838%. - Yield changes also varied over different time frames. For instance, the US had a latest change of - 0.040%, a one - week change of - 0.020%, a one - month change of - 0.060%, and a one - year change of - 0.920%. [3] 2.3 Dollar Exchange Rates against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On June 16, 2025, exchange rates and their changes were presented. For example, the dollar - to - Brazilian real rate was 5.493 with a latest change of - 0.92%. - Changes over one - week, one - month, and one - year periods were also provided. The dollar - to - Brazilian real had a one - week change of - 1.19%, a one - month change of - 3.05%, and a one - year change of 3.66%. [3] 2.4 Stock Indexes and Credit Bond Indexes - Stock indexes of major economies and emerging economies showed different performances. For example, the S&P 500 had a one - week change of 0.04%, a one - month change of - 3.29%, and a one - year change not given. - Credit bond indexes also had their respective changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of - 0.15%, a one - week change of 0.31%, a one - month change of 0.86%, and a one - year change of 4.61%. [3] 3. Stock Index Futures Trading Data 3.1 Index Performance - A - shares closed at 3388.73 with a 0.35% increase, the CSI 300 closed at 3873.80 with a 0.25% increase, etc. [4] 3.2 Valuation - PE (TTM) values were provided for different indexes, such as 12.78 for the CSI 300, 10.91 for the SSE 50, etc., along with their环比 changes. [4] 3.3 Risk Premium - Risk premium data and their环比 changes were presented for some indexes, e.g., the S&P 500 had a risk premium of - 0.55 with a环比 change of - 0.09. [4] 3.4 Fund Flows - Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows were given for different markets, such as 122.23 for A - shares and - 595.70 for the 5 - day average. [4] 3.5 Trading Volume - Latest trading volumes and their环比 changes were provided for different markets, e.g., 12150.76 for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets with a环比 change of - 2521.21. [4] 3.6 Basis and Spread - Basis and spread data were given for stock index futures, such as - 4.00 for the IF basis with a - 0.10% spread. [4] 4. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices and price changes of treasury bond futures (T00, TF00, T01, TF01) were presented, all with 0.00% changes on the given day. - Money market fund rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes were also provided, e.g., R001 was 1.4450% with a - 13.00 BP change. [5]