Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On July 1, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to regulate low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises, which led to a rebound in the domestic commodity market. Currently, the supply - demand fundamentals of steel, coke, and coking coal markets have few contradictions, and low inventories are used as a narrative. However, if no specific measures are implemented in the short term, the market may return to the old logic of dealing with the uncertainty of production cuts. After the short - term market sentiment reaction, investors should rationally view the price - increase logic, avoid chasing high prices, and can wait for callback opportunities after the policy - driven price reaches the target level [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures Market**: On July 2, the main contracts 2509 of coke and coking coal futures rose again. The coke 2509 contract reached a new high since May 20. The closing price of coke 2509 was 1442 yuan/ton, up 3.15%, with a trading volume of 30,166 lots and a position of 49,728 lots. The closing price of coking coal 2509 was 843.5 yuan/ton, up 3.18%, with a trading volume of 1,189,983 lots and a position of 529,227 lots, a decrease of 35,195 lots. The capital inflow of coke 2509 was 0.58 billion yuan, and the capital outflow of coking coal 2509 was 1.60 billion yuan [5]. - **Spot Market**: On July 2, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1220 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1195 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, while the prices in other regions remained unchanged [8]. 3.2 Technical Indicators On July 2, the daily KDJ indicator of the coke 2509 contract changed from a dead - cross to a golden - cross. The daily KDJ indicator of the coking coal 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J and K values rising significantly, and the D value continuing to decline slightly, showing a trend of forming a golden - cross. The daily MACD red bars of both the coke and coking coal 2509 contracts became larger [8]. 3.3 Industry News - **Policy News**: On July 1, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized promoting the construction of a unified national market, regulating enterprise competition, and promoting the exit of backward production capacity. The China Cement Association issued a document to promote the high - quality development of the cement industry [10][11]. - **Industry Operation**: From January to May 2025, the operation of major steel - using industries was polarized. The construction industry continued to decline, while the manufacturing industry showed differentiation. The production and export of some industries such as new energy vehicles and washing machines increased, while the production of some industries such as real estate and refrigerators decreased [11]. - **Enterprise Dynamics**: Shaanxi Coal Industry completed 121% of the investment plan from January to May. The Naoliu Highway in Xinjiang is undergoing expansion and reconstruction, and its freight capacity will reach over 40 million tons after completion. Jinmei Group successfully issued a 2 - billion - yuan science and technology innovation bond. This year, the number of LNG ship deliveries is expected to reach a record high. In the first half of 2025, the container throughput of Shanghai Yangshan Deep - Water Port increased by 7.3% year - on - year. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 7% in June. The main line of the Trans - Guinea Railway was fully paved, and the Simandou project is expected to be put into production at the end of 2025. Russia plans to maintain its coal exports to China at about 100 million tons in 2025. Turkey's coal imports in May increased by 2.66% year - on - year [12][13]. 3.4 Data Overview The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the spot price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average pig iron output, the inventory of coke and coking coal in ports, steel mills, and coking plants, the profit per ton of independent coking plants, the production and start - up rate of coal washing plants, the inventory of raw coal and clean coal in coal washing plants, and the basis of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal with the September contracts [15][19][23][26][27][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market rebounded yesterday, with the prices of finished products showing a volatile upward trend. Rumors of strict production - restriction measures in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region led to a significant increase in futures prices, especially in the steel market. The static fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, but attention should be paid to policy trends, actual demand recovery, and cost support [3]. - The prices of iron ore, manganese - silicon, silicon - iron, industrial silicon, glass, and soda ash were all affected by the policy statement of "promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity". The market sentiment was optimistic, but there are still uncertainties regarding whether over - capacity means backward capacity and how to solve the problem of insufficient downstream demand [6][10][13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Price and Position**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3065 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton (2.064%) from the previous trading day. The hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton (1.753%). The positions of both increased [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar's apparent demand was basically the same as last week, and the inventory reduction slowed due to increased production. Hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly, and inventory accumulated slightly [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 722.50 yuan/ton, up 1.98% (14.00). The position decreased by 6979 hands to 64.79 million hands [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The latest iron ore shipments decreased, and the near - end arrivals also declined. The daily average pig iron output was 242.29 million tons. The terminal demand of five major steel products decreased slightly. Port inventory and port clearance increased, while steel mill inventory decreased slightly. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [6]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Price**: The manganese - silicon main contract (SM509) rose 1.99% to 5726 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract (SF509) rose 3.15% to 5436 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is optimistic due to policy expectations. However, caution is needed for long - position follow - up, and short - position speculation should be on the sidelines. Enterprises with hedging profit margins can consider appropriate hedging [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2509) rose 5.73% to 8210 yuan/ton. The spot price also increased [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The price is still in a downward trend since November 2024. Although it showed strength, it is necessary to observe whether it can break through the downward trend line. Similar to other commodities, there are uncertainties in the market, and hedging can be considered for enterprises with profit margins [12][13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased. The short - position should avoid and wait and see due to policy - driven price rebounds [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the inventory increased slightly. The demand continued to decline, but the supply - demand margin improved slightly. It is expected to rebound following the glass [16].

Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon market shows signs of recovery with slight price increases, driven by stable production levels and government measures to control competition and support the industry [2][3]. Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 34,000 to 38,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 34,700 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight week-on-week increase of 0.87% [1]. - The average transaction price for n-type granular silicon remains stable at 33,500 yuan per ton [1]. Market Dynamics - The polysilicon market has seen a slight recovery, with some previously delayed orders being renegotiated at higher prices, despite most companies not securing significant new orders [2]. - The average price of polysilicon has been below the industry average cost for over a year, leading to the shutdown of four companies in the first half of this year and a total of nine since the beginning of 2024 [2]. Production and Supply - As of this week, the number of operating polysilicon companies in China has decreased to nine, with two additional companies recently ceasing operations without clear plans for resumption [3]. - Domestic polysilicon production in June was approximately 102,000 tons, remaining stable and matching demand, with a total production of about 596,000 tons in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 44.1% [3]. Future Outlook - The forecast for global polysilicon demand in 2025 is around 1.4 million tons, with domestic demand expected to be approximately 1.3 million tons [3]. - Without production increases from domestic polysilicon companies, the total output for the year is expected to be around 1.2 million tons, with inventory consumption of about 100,000 tons in the second half of the year [3]. - The industry must control capacity increases and push for the exit of outdated production capacities to fundamentally resolve supply-demand conflicts and stabilize prices across the photovoltaic industry chain [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On July 1, 2025, CGB futures rose; commodities were differentiated, with silicon metal and poly-silicon falling, and the SCFIS(Europe) rising by nearly 8%. The top three gainers were the SCFIS(Europe), gold, and TSR 20, while the top three decliners were silicon metal, glass, and coking coal [4][11][13]. - The Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized governing the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June rose to 50.4, returning to the expansion range [37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 1, 2025, CGB futures increased. Among commodities, silicon metal and poly - silicon declined, and the SCFIS(Europe) rose by nearly 8%. The SCFIS(Europe) rose 7.8% with a 3.2% month - on - month increase in position; gold rose 1.5% with a 7.5% month - on - month increase in position; TSR 20 rose 1.2% with a 4.5% month - on - month decrease in position. Silicon metal fell 4.3% with a 1.5% month - on - month increase in position; glass fell 3.7% with a 10.4% month - on - month increase in position; coking coal fell 3.3% with a 0.3% month - on - month decrease in position [11][12][13]. 1.2 Daily Rise - **SCFIS(Europe)**: On July 1, it increased by 7.8% to 1904.9 points. EC2508 may trade between 1600 - 1900 points. Trump believes no need to extend the July 9 tariff deadline, and the US Treasury Secretary said it may be difficult to complete all negotiations. China's manufacturing PMI has rebounded slightly. Trump's tariff policies and the decline in river water levels have led to supply chain congestion at European ports. Some shipping companies reported a decrease in stockpiling, and there is a possibility of price hikes in the second half of July [17][18][19]. - **Gold**: On July 1, it rose 1.5% to 776.1 yuan/gram. Recent upward movement in risk appetite has pressured gold prices. Although the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have rebounded slightly, it's hard to drive the gold market significantly. Focus on labor market data and the progress after the end of the first tariff easement period this week [25][26][27]. - **Copper**: On July 1, it increased by 1.1% to 80640 yuan/ton. Supply constraints and low inventories support copper prices, which may fluctuate at a high level in the short term. DXY has been declining, boosting copper prices. Copper concentrate processing fees have dropped below - $40, and raw material supply is tight. Some smelters at home and abroad have cut production. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, downstream restocking willingness has weakened, but inventories are still low [29][30][33]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized governing the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises, guiding enterprises to improve product quality, and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity. It also addressed standardizing government procurement and bidding, local investment promotion, and promoting the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [37]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, returning to the expansion range [37].