降 稳预期之外，更需锚定行业可持续发展的长效支点 ◎ 文 / 马千里 2025年12月10日至11日在北京举行的中央经济工作会议，既是对2025年经济工作的全面复盘，更是"十四五"收官与"十五五"开局衔接期的战略定调。会议紧扣"推 动高质量发展"核心，将稳预期、防风险、促转型贯穿始终，其在房地产领域的部署既呼应"十五五"规划建议，又细化政治局会议要求，更通过城市更新与要素市 场化改革的协同设计，为房地产发展新模式搭建框架，精准契合市场期待，为2026年经济"质的有效提升和量的合理增长"注入信心。 防风险领域， 会议将"积极稳妥化解重点领域风险"列为八大任务之一，明确提出稳定房地产市场的具体路径：因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，收购存量商品 房作保障房，深化公积金改革等，与"十五五"统筹发展安全的要求形成闭环。 与"十五五"规划精准衔接： 从战略到实践的落地 01 "十五五"规划建议明确基本实现社会主义现代化的关键时期需统筹发展安全、坚持高质量发展、扩大内需及防范重点领域风险，此次会议部署正是对这一框架的 具象化落地。 扩大内需方面， 会议将高质量城市更新纳入内需框架，既呼应新型城镇化目标，又通过改造投资与品质 ...

Core Points - The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 10 to 11, focusing on key tasks for economic work in the coming year [1][2] - The conference emphasized the need to enhance the momentum for high-quality development through reform [1][2] Group 1 - The establishment of a national unified market construction regulation was highlighted as a priority [1][2] - There will be efforts to address "involution" competition through deeper regulatory measures [1][2] - A plan for further deepening state-owned enterprise reform will be developed and implemented [1][2] Group 2 - Policies to support the private economy will be improved through complementary regulations [1][2] - There is a commitment to expedite the clearance of overdue payments owed to enterprises [1][2] - The conference aims to promote win-win development for platform enterprises, operators, and workers [1][2] Group 3 - The expansion of market-oriented reform pilot programs for factors of production is planned [1][2] - A comprehensive local tax system will be established [1][2] - The conference will advance the reduction and quality improvement of small and medium-sized financial institutions while continuing to deepen comprehensive reforms in capital market investment and financing [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing outlined key priorities for economic work in the coming year, focusing on high-quality development and reform initiatives [1] Group 1: Economic Reforms - Emphasis on reform to enhance the vitality and momentum of high-quality development [1] - Development of a national unified market construction regulation to address "involution" competition [1] - Implementation of further deepening reforms for state-owned enterprises and improvement of supporting regulations for the promotion of the private economy [1] Group 2: Financial and Market Initiatives - Acceleration of clearing overdue payments owed to enterprises [1] - Promotion of win-win development for platform enterprises, operators, and workers [1] - Expansion of pilot programs for market-oriented reforms of factors [1] - Improvement of the local tax system [1] - Continued advancement of quality improvement and reduction in small financial institutions, along with ongoing comprehensive reforms in capital market investment and financing [1]

Core Points - The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing on December 10-11, focusing on key tasks for economic work in the coming year [1] - Emphasis on reform to enhance high-quality development and vitality [1] Group 1: Key Tasks - Formulate a national unified market construction regulation to address "involution" competition [1] - Develop and implement further reforms for state-owned enterprises and improve supporting regulations for the promotion of the private economy [1] - Accelerate the clearance of overdue corporate payments [1] Group 2: Market and Financial Reforms - Promote win-win development for platform enterprises, operators, and workers [1] - Expand pilot programs for market-oriented reforms of factors [1] - Improve the local tax system [1] - Deepen the reduction and quality enhancement of small and medium-sized financial institutions, and continue to advance comprehensive reforms in capital market investment and financing [1]

■中国经济时报记者 孙兆 岁末谋篇，纲举目张。中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议指出，明年 经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效。这一部署为"十五五"规划开局之年的经济工作锚定了航向，也给 即将召开的中央经济工作会议定下了基调。 接受中国经济时报记者采访的业内人士表示，当前，以科技创新引领产业升级、推动消费从"恢复性增 长"向"可持续扩大"转型、深化改革扩大开放等议题，已成为市场关注的核心焦点。从高技术制造业的 加速成长到服务消费的稳步扩容，再到重点领域的改革推进，一系列政策信号与经济数据正交织成未来 发展的清晰脉络，不断彰显中国经济的韧性与活力。 01 产业双轮驱动 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》明确提出要因地制宜发展新质生产 力。此次中央政治局会议指出，我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，新质生产力稳步发展。在经济结构 转型的关键期，如何平衡传统产业升级与新兴产业、未来产业培育，实现"稳存量"与"扩增量"的有机统 一，成为政策制定的重要考量。 中国社会科学院财经战略研究院财政研究室主任何代欣对中国经济时报记者表示，传统产业不仅贡献着 GDP，更支撑着就 ...

Group 1: Economic Overview - "反内卷" is a key focus for the "十五五" period, expected to drive China's economic narrative in the coming year[1] - China's PPI has experienced negative growth for 36 consecutive months since October 2022, with the GDP deflator remaining below zero for nine consecutive quarters starting mid-2023[14] - The low inflation environment mirrors the supply-demand mismatch seen during the late 1990s, indicating structural economic challenges[2] Group 2: Short-term Policy Measures - Short-term "反内卷" efforts will rely on policy interventions across industrial and macroeconomic dimensions, with a focus on administrative measures to address severe mismatches in certain sectors[3] - The fiscal deficit is projected to remain high at 3.8%-4.0% to support economic stability, with a total deficit expected to exceed 12 trillion yuan[52] - PPI is anticipated to recover from negative growth, with a target of achieving positive growth by mid-2026, supported by favorable base effects[67] Group 3: Long-term Reform Strategies - Long-term "反内卷" success hinges on structural reforms, including market-oriented reforms to eliminate local protectionism and enhance resource allocation efficiency[72] - The urbanization of approximately 250 million agricultural migrants is seen as a potential driver for increased domestic demand and income growth[74] - The government aims to transition from infrastructure-focused fiscal policies to those prioritizing social welfare and human capital investment[53]

Core Objectives - The primary goal is to achieve "significant results in high-quality development," with quantifiable indicators for economic growth, total factor productivity, and resident consumption rate[4] - The proposal emphasizes the importance of a unified national market and significant progress in new industrialization, information technology, urbanization, and agricultural modernization as evaluation criteria[5] Key Strategies - Domestic strategies focus on "boosting consumption" and "expanding effective investment" to strengthen the domestic economic cycle[4] - Internationally, the strategy involves "institutional opening-up" to align with international high standards and expand development space[4] Industrial Layout - The proposal outlines directions for traditional industries, emerging and future industries, services, and infrastructure, aiming to optimize and enhance the traditional industrial base[6] - Specific traditional industries mentioned include mining, metallurgy, chemicals, light industry, textiles, machinery, shipbuilding, and construction[6] Innovation and Technology - The focus is on "accelerating high-level technological self-reliance" and leading the development of new productive forces, with an emphasis on original innovation and key core technology breakthroughs[8] - The proposal highlights the importance of artificial intelligence and digital technology in driving innovation[8] Market Reforms - The proposal stresses the need to eliminate barriers to a unified national market and promote market-oriented reforms, including the efficient allocation of various resources[9] - It aims to address local protectionism and market segmentation, with a focus on enhancing the socialist market economy system[9] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy shifts towards enhancing sustainability and efficiency, with an emphasis on active fiscal measures and improving the tax system[10] - The goal is to maintain a reasonable macro tax burden while increasing central government financial support for key areas[10] Consumption and Investment - A systematic framework for "boosting consumption" is established, focusing on enhancing residents' consumption capacity and upgrading consumption supply[11] - The proposal emphasizes increasing government investment in livelihood projects and safety capabilities, adapting to demographic changes[12] International Trade - The proposal elevates "institutional opening-up" as a core strategy, focusing on aligning with international trade rules and promoting digital and service trade[14] - It aims to facilitate foreign investment by reducing negative lists and enhancing the internationalization of the RMB[14]

Core Insights - The 2024 Chinese motor vehicle auction market has seen a transaction value nearing 50 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 55%, establishing itself as a crucial channel in the used car circulation system [1] - The auction of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is emerging as a new growth driver, with significant increases in auction commissions for pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, indicating a potential trillion-yuan market space [1][6] - The release of national standards for auction terminology and electric vehicle assessment aims to address long-standing issues in the industry, enhancing communication and operational efficiency [2][3] Market Performance - In 2024, the total number of vehicles auctioned reached 1.2352 million, with a transaction value of 49.361 billion yuan, marking a 75.83% and 55.21% increase year-on-year, respectively [6] - Digitalization has become the mainstream transaction mode, with 98% of auctions being conducted online, leading to a 30% increase in transaction efficiency [6] New Energy Vehicle Growth - The auction commission for pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles surged by 118% and 155% respectively, reflecting a clear upward trend in the market [6][7] - The increasing number of NEVs entering the used car market is expected to drive auction demand exponentially in the coming years [6] Standardization Efforts - The newly established national standard for auction terminology aims to unify the language used across different auction scenarios, reducing communication costs and disputes [3][4] - The group standard for electric vehicle auction assessment focuses on creating a professional detection system to ensure transparency in vehicle conditions, addressing information asymmetry [4] Market Dynamics - The auction mechanism is seen as a key to revitalizing idle used car resources, with the national used car transaction volume exceeding 900 billion yuan in September 2024 [2][8] - The auction process has facilitated the transfer of vehicles from oversupplied regions to demand-driven markets, promoting tiered consumption of automobiles [8] International Expansion - The establishment of a used car export auction service platform indicates the industry's move towards internationalization, aiming to expand the circulation boundaries of Chinese used cars globally [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China outlines a blueprint for future economic and social development, focusing on high-quality development as a key task during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3][4] - The report highlights that the economic growth rate during the 14th Five-Year Plan is approximately 5.4% annually, which alleviates some pressure on the growth rate for the 15th Five-Year Plan [3] - The construction of a modern industrial system is identified as a primary task, with a focus on strengthening the real economy and advancing the transformation and upgrading of industries [3][4] Group 2 - The report indicates that the 15th Five-Year Plan will prioritize domestic demand expansion and consumption promotion, aiming to strengthen the domestic circulation and enhance consumer capacity [4] - It discusses the importance of market-oriented reforms to improve resource allocation efficiency and expand high-level openness, which will facilitate the development of new productive forces [4] - The emphasis on technological innovation and self-reliance in high-level technology is noted as a critical foundation for developing new productive forces, with a focus on original innovation and core technology breakthroughs [3][4]

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period saw a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4% in China's economy, which helps alleviate growth pressure for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [5] - The focus of the "15th Five-Year Plan" will be on transforming the growth model from GDP-driven to a three-pronged approach of actual GDP, inflation, and exchange rates [5] - The three key lines of economic growth during the "15th Five-Year Plan" include promoting structural transformation through new productive forces, addressing supply-demand imbalances through "anti-involution" policies, and implementing market-oriented reforms for resource allocation [6] Group 2: Company Analysis - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) - Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 254.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 10.33%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 37.864 billion yuan, up 55.45% year-on-year [11] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 86.489 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.14%, and a net profit of 14.572 billion yuan, up 57.14% year-on-year [11] - The company’s gold production reached 64.95 tons in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 19.68%, while copper production was 829,900 tons, up 5.12% year-on-year [12][13] Group 3: Company Analysis - Fuyao Glass (600660.SH) - Fuyao Glass reported a revenue of 33.3 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and a net profit of 7.1 billion yuan, up 29% year-on-year [16] - In Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 11.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%, and a net profit of 2.3 billion yuan, up 14% year-on-year [16] - The company is focusing on technological advancements in automotive glass, with products like smart panoramic sunroofs and adjustable glass, which are expected to drive growth in the coming years [17]