金融期货早评 宏观：美日联手干预汇率 【市场资讯】1）美国总统特朗普威胁将韩国商品的关税提高至 25%，理由是他所称的该国 立法机构未能将两国去年达成的贸易协议编纂成法。2）中国人民银行召开 2026 年宏观审 慎工作会议。3）日本首相高市早苗：如果执政联盟在众议院选举中无法获得多数席位，我 将立即辞职。4）欧盟将于 2027 年 1 月全面禁止进口俄液化天然气，同年 9 月底全面禁止 进口俄管道天然气。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】人民币方面，央行邹澜明确以香港为离岸核心枢纽，通过扩容离 岸资产供给、翻倍香港人民币流动性安排完善金融生态，这一布局适配人民币从贸易结算 向投资储备的国际化升级，既解决外资人民币资产配置需求，也能为 A 股引入长期资金， 对接国内科技产业的估值与发展需求。日元的困境远超汇率层面，纽约联储的询价动作与 日本官员的干预表态虽短期拉动日元反弹，但美日利差、结构性资本外流仍在，叠加首相 高市早苗将汇率与大选绑定的政治风险，反弹缺乏基本面支撑。更关键的是，其削减消费 税的言论引发市场对财政纪律松弛的担忧，直接导致日债长端利率攀升、收益率曲线熊市 走陡，彻底颠覆全球固收市场逻辑，债券从避险工具变为 ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 日本首相高市早苗称，市场波动背后有多种因素。将监测投机性走势，并在必要时采取行动。日本基本 预算余额28年来首次达到盈余。关注财政可持续性。美元兑日元跌超1%，目前报154.01。 ...

达沃斯论坛瞬间变成了全球金融威慑的现场，特朗普那句任何抛售美股与美债的国家都将面临对等反制，将美国金融话语权的双重标准推向了前所未有的极 致。话音未落，中美双边债券的持仓图表却悄无声息地甩出一记重拳：中国官方持有的美债余额已经降至6830亿美元，比历史最高峰值已累计削减超过6000 亿美元。这场由华盛顿主导、延续了数十年的主权信用借贷闭环，中方早已悄然调整了其背后的底层逻辑。那么，为什么美方反应如此激烈呢？答案不在于 那些公开声明，而是在美国资产负债表的深处。 事态的导火索源自北欧两个低调却意义深远的力量：丹麦某顶尖高校背景的养老基金在七日内完成了1亿美元的美债清仓；紧随其后，瑞典领先的养老金机 构Alecta在单日内减持了77亿到88亿美元的美债。需要特别注意的是，这一数字在全球债务体系中的位置：在美国总债务达到38万亿美元的庞大体系中，几 百亿美元的波动几乎不可能激起涟漪，充其量也只是深海中的一粒微尘。若是在2019年前，这种操作甚至都不会触发交易系统的警报；但如今，形势已经不 同，白宫方面却迅速作出了超常规的反应。原因很简单：这不是一次普通的交易，而是一组全球市场解读为信任撤退的加密电文。 这一金额刷新 ...

黄金迎来5100美元里程碑。 随着地缘政治紧张局势高烧不退、全球财政风险忧虑卷土重来，投资者当地时间26日开盘再次涌向贵金 属寻求避险。 瑞士联合私人银行认为，机构与零售投资者的持续买盘推动了金银价格上涨。该行表示："预计黄金将 迎来又一个强势年份，这反映出各国央行和零售端的投资需求仍在持续，我们将黄金年末目标价定为每 盎司5200美元。" 高盛集团认为，黄金的需求基础已突破传统渠道。2025年初以来，西方黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）的 持仓量增加了约500吨；同时，高净值家族实物购金等对冲宏观政策风险的新型投资方式，正成为黄金 需求日益重要的来源。高盛近期将2026年12月黄金价格预期从先前的每盎司4900美元上调至5400美元， 理由是，市场对全球宏观与政策风险的对冲需求已具备"粘性"，这一趋势实质性抬高了今年黄金价格的 起点。 各国央行的黄金购买量依旧保持高位。高盛估算，当前全球央行月均购金量约为60吨，远高于2022年之 前月均17吨的水平，尤其是新兴市场央行仍在持续将外汇储备转向黄金资产。值得一提的是，高盛认 为，市场对财政可持续性等全球宏观政策风险的对冲需求将持续至2026年，这与2024年末美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Founder Securities indicates that while the intensity of external economic shocks may decrease in 2026 compared to 2025, five major risks still require close attention. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks have evolved from tail risks to core macro variables since 2025, and are expected to remain high in 2026. The U.S. under Trump's second term is a significant risk point, with potential aggressive policies and a likely Democratic majority in the House of Representatives [2][22]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict may lead to "aid fatigue" in Europe, complicating policy coordination amid internal political shifts [2][26]. Group 2: Tariff Disturbances - Although there is potential for tariff risks to ease in 2026, the disturbances to international trade remain significant. Current tariffs may suppress trade growth, with WTO predicting a mere 0.5% growth rate for global merchandise trade in 2026 [3][39]. - If the Supreme Court rules the IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional, U.S. tariff rates could drop from 16.8% to 9.3%, potentially alleviating inflationary pressures [3][36]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's ongoing pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates raises concerns about the central bank's independence. The upcoming change in Fed leadership is a focal point, with candidates like Kevin Hassett potentially undermining this independence [4][58]. - A decline in Fed independence could increase stagflation risks and negatively impact U.S. dollar assets, while benefiting short-term U.S. Treasuries and gold [4][62]. Group 4: Technology Stock Bubble - The AI-driven surge in U.S. tech stocks has led to high valuations, with the S&P 500 PE ratio at 25.6X and the Nasdaq at 34.4X as of early January 2026. The top ten stocks account for 32.8% of the market [5][65]. - Despite concerns over financial sustainability and profitability in the AI sector, the risk of a bubble bursting is considered low, given the current economic conditions and Fed's likely continuation of a rate-cutting cycle [5][63]. Group 5: Fiscal Sustainability Concerns - High long-term interest rates in developed economies are expected to persist, putting pressure on stock markets. The global fiscal deficit rates are likely to remain elevated, with the U.S. "Great Beautiful Act" exacerbating debt pressures [6][28]. - The K-shaped recovery in the stock market may continue, with interest-sensitive sectors like real estate and consumer goods facing challenges, while the AI industry remains relatively insulated [6][28].

日本首相高市早苗提出的财政政策引发的担忧加剧（1月19日，Reuters） 海外投资者对日本市场的看法出现分歧。围绕2月的众议院选举，日本朝野各党均提出消费税 减税的方案，导致财政担忧加剧，日本国债被持续卖出。另一方面，由于对经济增长的期 待，对股市的乐观情绪并未改变。我们探寻了推动"高市行情"的海外投资者的真实想法。 日本国债交易员因财政担忧而被"卖出" 关于日本国债，从海外投资者那里听到的大多是"卖出"。围绕2月的众议院选举，日本朝野各 党均提出消费税减税的方案，导致财政担忧加剧，日本国债被持续卖出。另一方面，对日本 股市的乐观情绪并未改变…… 关于日本国债，从海外投资者那里听到的大多是"卖出"。 美国波士顿的投资咨询公司Alpha Management创始人表示："自去年4月以来，我们把日本 国债（JGB）期货维持在100%空头（卖出）仓位"。他还表示也在向客户推荐卖出日本国 债。 伦敦一位交易员表示："卖出日本国债的交易异常火热，甚至出现一些具有亚洲债券交易经验 的人才被某主权财富基金（SWF）以优厚条件挖走的情况"。 日本长期利率此前随着持续通胀和日本央行加息而逐步上升，在高市政权成立、对财政扩张 ...

1月23日，国际现货黄金价格强势突破每盎司4900美元大关，盘中最高触及4967.48美元，再次刷新历史纪录，距离5000美元这一关键心理关口仅一步之遥。 自年初以来，金价连续跨越4500至4900美元五大整数关口，展现出强劲且持续的上涨趋势。在国内市场，主流品牌足金饰品价格已超过每克1540元人民币。 此次金价的历史性突破并非偶然，而是多种复杂因素共同作用的结果。地缘政治风险不断加剧、美国财政可持续性问题引发担忧、全球央行出于战略安全考 虑持续增持黄金，以及市场对主要央行政策转向的预期，共同推动了金价的大幅上涨。这不仅是短期避险情绪的体现，更是全球资本对长期金融秩序不确定 性的重新评估。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监瞿瑞指出，近期金价加速上涨的直接原因是地缘政治局势的反复升温。尽管美欧就格陵兰岛问题达成框架协议，暂时避免了 军事冲突，但特朗普在空军一号上宣布将对与伊朗有贸易往来的国家加征25%关税，并警告可能采取"重大报复行动"，再度引发市场对中东局势和全球供应 链稳定的担忧。 更深层次的原因在于美国财政基本面的恶化。高级副总监白雪分析称，特朗普政府推行的大规模减税政策、军费扩张及联邦政府停摆事件，使美国联 ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks are expected to remain high, with the U.S. continuing to be a major risk point due to the unpredictable nature of its policies under the Trump administration [7][19] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and internal political pressures in Europe may lead to increased difficulties in achieving policy coordination [19] - The expansion of geopolitical risks into technology, economy, and trade sectors is noted, indicating a broader impact on global economic and trade networks [16][19] Group 2: Tariff Policies - Tariff policies are anticipated to have a continued impact on international trade, with potential for easing but still significant disruptions expected [21][30] - The U.S. tariff rate is projected to decrease from a theoretical value of 16.8% to 9.3% if the IEEPA tariffs are deemed unconstitutional, which could improve inflation and GDP outlooks [23][28] - Global trade growth is forecasted to slow down, with the WTO predicting a decline in trade growth rate to 0.5% in 2026 [30][32] Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, particularly with potential candidates for the next chair being more aligned with Trump’s policies, which could undermine its autonomy [8][38] - Historical trends suggest that a loss of independence could lead to increased inflation risks and market volatility [34][45] - The market is closely monitoring the nomination of the next Federal Reserve chair, with candidates like Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh having significant implications for monetary policy [38][41] Group 4: Technology Sector Bubble Risks - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI, has seen significant stock price increases, leading to concerns about potential bubbles due to high valuations [2][48] - As of January, the S&P 500 PE ratio is at 25.6, indicating elevated valuation levels compared to historical averages [48][50] - The concentration of market capitalization among the top tech companies remains high, with the top ten companies accounting for 32.8% of the market, raising concerns about market fragility [49][51] Group 5: Fiscal Sustainability Concerns - Concerns regarding fiscal sustainability have intensified, with long-term debt rates remaining high and fiscal deficits expected to persist [9][46] - The trend of expansive fiscal policies is likely to continue, driven by economic pressures from trade wars and increased defense spending [9][46] - The K-shaped recovery in the stock market is anticipated to persist, with interest rate-sensitive sectors facing ongoing pressure [9][46]

转自：经济日报 1月20日，海外市场迎来2026年第一场"巨震"——"抛售美国"交易卷土重来、日债收益率历史性迈入"4 时代"、全球债市遭遇"抛售潮"、权益等风险资产普跌…… 分析人士普遍认为，地缘紧张局势、关税忧虑及日债"抛售潮"的连锁反应共同构成了本次海外市场震荡 的核心逻辑，也暴露出发达经济体普遍的财政可持续性隐忧。展望后市，仍需关注政策演变等关键信 号。 美国市场"股债汇三杀" （来源：经济日报） 渣打中国财富方案部首席投资策略师王昕杰对上证报记者表示，本轮海外市场波动的"震源"来自日本。 日本国债遭遇历史性抛售，收益率提高导致全球套息交易的平仓，作为资产端的美债被抛售，实际上是 套息交易当中的逻辑联动。 "日美投资者之间存在较强的跨境联动效应。因此，当美债与日债同时出现抛售压力时，极易形成跨市 场的负面反馈循环，加剧波动。"林成炜称。 "美国信用"下滑加速了这一趋势。王昕杰表示，2026年的宏观核心议题在于，主要经济体在货币政策空 间受限的背景下，财政政策捉襟见肘，日本面临的是投资者对于日本财政的信任度下降，美国则需应对 在套息交易大规模平仓过程中的"美国信用"下滑问题。 这反映出美国、欧洲、日本等 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target for December 2026 to $5,400 per ounce from a previous forecast of $4,900, driven by strong central bank demand, favorable conditions for ETFs due to potential Fed rate cuts, and increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and policy uncertainties [1][2][4]. Group 1: Demand Drivers - The report identifies a shift from central bank-driven demand to a combination of central bank and private sector demand for gold, with private sector hedging becoming more pronounced and sticky [1][4]. - The forecast for gold price increases is divided into two phases: 2023-2024 driven by central bank purchases, and a significant acceleration in 2025 due to competition for limited bullion between central banks and private investors [2][6]. - Central banks are expected to purchase approximately 60 tons of gold monthly in 2026, contributing about 14 percentage points to the price increase, with a long-term trend of emerging market central banks diversifying their reserves [7]. Group 2: Private Sector Influence - The private sector's role is highlighted as crucial, with high-net-worth families increasing their physical gold purchases and investors using options as hedging tools, which are harder to quantify [2][4]. - The report emphasizes that the "sticky hedges" from private sector demand will likely remain in place through 2026, supporting a higher baseline for gold prices rather than a temporary spike [9][10]. Group 3: Price Dynamics and Risks - The report outlines that 17% of the expected price increase is attributed to central bank and ETF demand, while the sticky hedges from the private sector help maintain a higher price level [7][9]. - Key signals to monitor for potential price peaks include the sustainability of central bank gold purchases, the Fed's monetary policy direction, and the resolution of macroeconomic uncertainties [11][12][13].