2025年，在科技创新与宽松货币政策的托举下，全球资产价格普涨，美国三大股指屡创新高，英国富时 100指数、日经225指数、中国主要指数创下近年高点，黄金、白银等大宗商品价格也一路攀升。在这一 年里，风险似乎被推迟讨论，增长与上涨成为主流叙事。 当几乎所有资产的价格都在上涨，风险是否正在被低估？知名投资人、量子基金联合创始人吉姆·罗杰 斯对此保持高度警惕。他在接受南方财经记者独家专访时表示，宽松政策长期延续、债务规模持续扩 张，正在推高资产价格，也在无形中放大未来调整的冲击。"当所有资产都在上涨时，正是该开始担心 的时候。" 尽管对全球资产泡沫深感不安，但吉姆·罗杰斯依旧持有中国股票，并将其视为跨越代际的资产配置。 展望"十五五"，罗杰斯认为中国庞大且受过良好教育的人口、相对较低的债务水平和持续开放的市场将 让中国充满竞争力。"中国是21世纪最具潜力的国家之一。我不会放弃投资中国。" 展望2026年，罗杰斯建议投资者谨慎行事，既要保持警惕，也要充满希望。 全球市场需警惕泡沫破裂 南方财经：2025年已近尾声，你能否回顾一下2025年的全球市场表现？ 吉姆·罗杰斯：2025年全球市场整体表现不错。部分原因在于全 ...

尽管对全球资产泡沫深感不安，但吉姆·罗杰斯依旧持有中国股票，并将其视为跨越代际的资产配置。展望"十五五"，罗杰斯认为中 国庞大且受过良好教育的人口、相对较低的债务水平和持续开放的市场将让中国充满竞争力。 "中国是21世纪最具潜力的国家之 一。我不会放弃投资中国。" 展望2026年，罗杰斯建议投资者谨慎行事，既要保持警惕，也要充满希望。 记者丨 施诗 编辑丨和佳 2025年，在科技创新与宽松货币政策的托举下，全球资产价格普涨，美国三大股指屡创新高，英国富时100指数、日经225指数、中 国主要指数创下近年高点，黄金、白银等大宗商品价格也一路攀升。在这一年里，风险似乎被推迟讨论，增长与上涨成为主流叙 事。 当几乎所有资产的价格都在上涨，风险是否正在被低估？ 知名投资人、量子基金联合创始人吉姆·罗杰斯对此保持高度警惕。他在接 受南方财经记者独家专访时表示，宽松政策长期延续、债务规模持续扩张，正在推高资产价格，也在无形中放大未来调整的冲 击。"当所有资产都在上涨时，正是该开始担心的时候。" 吉姆·罗杰斯。资料图 全球市场需警惕泡沫破裂 南方财经： 2025年已近尾声，你能否回顾一下2025年的全球市场表现？ 吉姆·罗 ...

2025年，在科技创新与宽松货币政策的托举下，全球资产价格普涨，美国三大股指屡创新高，英国富时 100指数、日经225指数、中国主要指数创下近年高点，黄金、白银等大宗商品价格也一路攀升。在这一 年里，风险似乎被推迟讨论，增长与上涨成为主流叙事。 当几乎所有资产的价格都在上涨，风险是否正在被低估？知名投资人、量子基金联合创始人吉姆.罗杰 斯对此保持高度警惕。他在接受南方财经记者独家专访时表示，宽松政策长期延续、债务规模持续扩 张，正在推高资产价格，也在无形中放大未来调整的冲击。"当所有资产都在上涨时，正是该开始担心 的时候。" 尽管对全球资产泡沫深感不安，但吉姆.罗杰斯依旧持有中国股票，并将其视为跨越代际的资产配置。 展望"十五五"，罗杰斯认为中国庞大且受过良好教育的人口、相对较低的债务水平和持续开放的市场将 让中国充满竞争力。"中国是21世纪最具潜力的国家之一。我不会放弃投资中国。" 展望2026年，罗杰斯建议投资者谨慎行事，既要保持警惕，也要充满希望。 全球市场需警惕泡沫破裂 南方财经：2025年已近尾声，你能否回顾一下2025年的全球市场表现？ 吉姆.罗杰斯：2025年全球市场整体表现不错。部分原因在于全 ...

圣诞节后第一个交易日，全球贵金属市场上演了一场令人瞠目结舌的"开门红"。 伦敦交易所的白银现货价格在圣诞节后开盘直接跳空高开，连续突破每盎司73美元、74美元和75美元关 口，创下历史新高，金银市场的疯狂已经不再是一个简单的资产价格上涨故事。 12月26日清晨，当亚洲的交易员们打开屏幕，伦敦现货白银价格已经突破每盎司75美元大关，日涨幅超 过5%。与此同时，现货黄金也不甘示弱，历史首次站上每盎司4530美元上方。 截至当日，黄金年内累计涨幅已约70%，白银涨幅更是惊人地超过150%，两者均有望创下自1979年以 来最佳的年度表现。 然而在这轮涨势背后，一场悄无声息的"挤兑"正在伦敦白银市场悄然上演，一次对传统金融体系的"逃 亡"正在全球上演。 市场共振 白银无疑是本轮的领涨者，伦敦现货白银价格连续突破三道整数关口，最高触及每盎司75.515美元。白 银期货也同步跟进，COMEX白银期货盘中最高触及75.495美元。 黄金的涨势虽相对"平和"，但也足以创造历史。伦敦金现日内最高触及4531.284美元/盎司，COMEX黄 金期货更是刷新历史纪录至4561.6美元/盎司。期现市场形成鲜明共振，背后资本力量的集中释 ...

南方财经21世纪经济报道记者 施诗 上海报道 2025年，在科技创新与宽松货币政策的托举下，全球资产价格普涨，美国三大股指屡创新高，英国富时100指数、日经225指数、中国主要 指数创下近年高点，黄金、白银等大宗商品价格也一路攀升。在这一年里，风险似乎被推迟讨论，增长与上涨成为主流叙事。 当几乎所有资产的价格都在上涨，风险是否正在被低估？吉姆·罗杰斯对此保持高度警惕。他在接受南方财经记者独家专访时表示，宽松 政策长期延续、债务规模持续扩张，正在推高资产价格，也在无形中放大未来调整的冲击。"当所有资产都在上涨时，正是该开始担心的 时候。" 尽管对全球资产泡沫深感不安，但吉姆·罗杰斯依旧持有中国股票，并将其视为跨越代际的资产配置。展望"十五五"，罗杰斯认为中国庞大 且受过良好教育的人口、相对较低的债务水平和持续开放的市场将让中国充满竞争力。"中国是21世纪最具潜力的国家之一。不要放弃投 资中国。我不会放弃投资中国。" 在罗杰斯看来，广东作为中国的经济大省，尽管面临困难与调整，但依然有光明的未来，将继续成为世界的重要经济中心。 展望2026年，罗杰斯建议投资者谨慎行事，既要保持警惕，也要充满希望。 全球市场需警惕泡 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Wall Street is preparing for continued volatility in the U.S. stock market in 2026, with investors oscillating between fear of missing out (FOMO) on AI rebounds and anxiety over potential asset bubbles bursting [1] - The past 18 months have shown a pattern of large sell-offs and rapid reversals, which is expected to continue into 2026, particularly influenced by tech giants at the center of the AI revolution [1] - Despite strong performance in tech stocks in 2025, the divergence between sectors has suppressed actual market volatility, but risks from falling chip stocks could trigger broader market impacts [1] Group 2: Volatility Strategies - UBS strategists highlight that the AI boom's sustainability is crucial for volatility strategies, with high volatility contracts on the Nasdaq 100 index being a key focus [2] - The strategy of buying Nasdaq 100 volatility while selling S&P 500 volatility is viewed as a high-confidence trade for the upcoming year [2] - JPMorgan strategists anticipate that volatility will fluctuate between technical, fundamental, and macroeconomic factors, with the VIX expected to average between 16 and 17 in 2026 [2] Group 3: Options Market Dynamics - Structural imbalances in the options market are reshaping pricing, with a steepening volatility curve expected in 2026 due to an imbalance in investment flows [3] - Quantitative investment strategies and volatility selling strategies are increasing supply on the short end of the curve, while hedging funds are expected to keep long-end volatility elevated [3] - The fear of missing out and conflicting narratives around AI are creating favorable conditions for trading volatility [3] Group 4: Divergence in Trading Strategies - The "diversified trading" strategy, betting on individual stock volatility while keeping index volatility low, may become popular but raises concerns about overcrowding [4] - Some hedge funds are taking contrary positions, suggesting that the strategy may be overly crowded [4] - Despite concerns, capital is expected to continue flowing into diversified strategies, maintaining single-stock volatility premiums over indices [5] Group 5: Re-leveraging Cycle and Tail Risks - A volatility mechanism model based on the yield curve indicates that a flattening curve signals buying volatility, while a steepening curve triggers selling [6] - The model has historically avoided significant drawdowns during market downturns, suggesting that volatility is likely to rise in 2026 [6] - The U.S. is on the brink of a new re-leveraging cycle driven by AI, which could lead to increased credit spreads and equity volatility [6]

Core Viewpoint - The US stock market is expected to remain volatile in 2024, driven by investor FOMO regarding AI and concerns about a potential bubble [1][3] Group 1: Market Trends - The past 18 months have been characterized by significant sell-offs and rapid rebounds in the US stock market, a trend that may continue until 2026 [1] - The core of the AI investment boom is technology companies, which have a substantial impact on market dynamics [1] - Despite the divergence in performance between tech stocks and other sectors of the S&P 500, the rise in tech stocks has mitigated overall market volatility [1] Group 2: Volatility Indicators - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) is expected to rise sharply if declines in chip stocks spread [1] - UBS strategist Kieran Diamond notes that 2025 will be dominated by market rotation and a few leading stocks, rather than a broad risk-on or risk-off sentiment [1] - The anticipated volatility in 2026 is attributed to the instability that often accompanies asset bubbles [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Holding Nasdaq 100 volatility contracts is seen as a key strategy for managing dual risks in the current market environment [3] - UBS's Maxwell Grinacoff emphasizes that betting on volatility in the Nasdaq 100 index will outperform in any scenario [3] - The popularity of dispersion trading strategies, which bet on rising individual stock volatility and shrinking index volatility, is expected to increase [9] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The influx of capital into dispersion strategies is likely to keep demand for individual stock volatility relatively high [11] - Investors are exploring various strategies to gain a competitive edge, as traditional dispersion strategies have become widely known [9][11] - A basic volatility mechanism model has been introduced to dynamically switch between long and short volatility trades [11][12] Group 5: Economic Factors - The overall low leverage of US corporations and the onset of a new re-leveraging cycle driven by AI are expected to increase credit spreads and stock volatility [12] - The importance of hedging tail risks is emphasized for investors in 2026, given the conflicting narratives surrounding AI and the role of the US government in market volatility [12]

Group 1: Personal Consumption and Living Costs - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts lead to a weaker dollar, making studying abroad, shopping, and travel cheaper for Chinese families, potentially saving over 10,000 yuan annually for those studying in the U.S. [2] - The appreciation of the yuan results in lower prices for imported consumer goods, such as electronics and luxury items, but may weaken the competitiveness of export goods, particularly in labor-intensive sectors like textiles and home appliances [2] - The decline in returns on dollar-denominated assets, including U.S. Treasury bonds and dollar-linked investment products, necessitates adjustments in investment strategies for holders [2] Group 2: Corporate and Macroeconomic Impact - Companies reliant on dollar financing, such as those in technology and real estate, benefit from reduced borrowing costs and alleviated pressure from existing dollar-denominated debt [3] - Export-oriented companies facing rising prices for dollar-denominated goods may experience diminished competitiveness, while firms importing raw materials could face increased cost pressures [4] Group 3: Capital Market Fluctuations - Foreign capital may flow back into emerging markets, with sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy in A-shares benefiting from increased liquidity and valuation improvements [5] - Precious metals like gold and silver are driven up by the weaker dollar, although caution is advised as gold prices are at historical highs [6] Group 4: Policy and Long-term Implications - The narrowing of interest rate differentials between China and the U.S. reduces depreciation pressure on the yuan, creating favorable conditions for potential interest rate cuts and reductions in reserve requirements in China, which may lead to lower mortgage rates [7] - Short-term stimulus measures could exacerbate asset bubbles in markets like U.S. stocks and real estate, with risks of market reversals if inflation rebounds or economic conditions weaken [8] - Debt pressures in emerging markets remain unresolved, and rapid capital movements could heighten financial volatility [9] Group 5: Strategies for Individuals - Individuals are advised to reduce holdings in dollar-denominated assets and shift towards high-dividend A-share leaders, gold ETFs, and QDII overseas bond funds [10] - Caution is recommended regarding high-valuation assets, with a preference for industries with stable cash flows, such as utilities and consumer staples [11] - Those needing to exchange for dollars should consider doing so during the depreciation period, but long-term holdings should be approached with caution [12] Group 6: Controversies and Uncertainties - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with a 9:3 vote on December rate cuts, and the pace of rate cuts in 2026 remains uncertain, potentially accelerated by political interventions [13] - The interplay between AI expansion by tech giants, which relies on low interest rates, and the potential for increased unemployment and inflation creates policy dilemmas [13] - The current rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are characterized as "preventive" adjustments, with the core issue being the balance between weak employment and persistent inflation, necessitating attention to potential pauses in rate cuts in January 2026, which will directly influence capital flows and policy space [14]

两者同步上涨的现象，至少半个世纪以来都未曾出现过。 导语 国际清算银行（BIS）在最新发布的报告中表示，今年以来黄金与股市价格同步飙升的现象，至少半个 世纪以来都未曾出现过，这可能是两类资产同时存在泡沫的风险。 黄金呈现投机特征 距离2025年收官还有三周时间，在人工智能（AI）及科技板块的收益驱动下，欧美主要股指年内涨幅 均达到两位数。与此同时，黄金年内近60%的涨幅或将创下1979年以来的最大年度涨幅，这已经产生了 关于其传统避险资产角色是否已发生转变的热议。 国际清算银行经济顾问兼货币与经济部门主管申铉松（Hyun Song Shin）在该行周一发布年度收官报告 时称："今年黄金的表现与以往常态截然不同。此次一个有趣的现象是，黄金已变得越发像是一种投机 性资产。" 素有 "央行的央行"之称的国际清算银行近年来频繁就股市潜在泡沫发出预警，而此次对于黄金与股市 同涨的担忧则体现在两个层面： 一是若股市与黄金同时崩盘，投资者将何处避险；二是考虑到部分央行一直是黄金的大举买家，这种联 动走势对各国央行及其他储备资产管理者又将意味着什么。 国际清算银行的分析结论显示，今年是过去50年间，黄金与标普500指数首次共 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong gold stocks collectively declined at the beginning of trading, with notable drops including China Silver Group down 4.29%, Zhaojin Mining down 4.14%, and Zijin Mining down 3.89% [1][2] - The International Bank for Settlements (BIS) reported that the simultaneous surge in gold and stock prices this year is unprecedented in at least half a century, indicating potential bubble risks in both asset classes [2] - Retail investors have driven the recent surge in gold prices, shifting gold from a traditional safe-haven asset to a more speculative one, with evidence suggesting that retail participation has amplified this trend [2] Group 2 - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced that Russia will restrict gold exports starting in 2026, which may impact global gold supply dynamics [2]