Core Viewpoint - The A-share insurance stocks have shown significant gains since April, with New China Life Insurance nearing historical highs and China People's Insurance Group reaching a six-year high, indicating a bullish market trend for insurance stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - A-share insurance sector rose by 0.74% recently, with intraday gains exceeding 1%, attracting market attention [1] - In the H-share market, both New China Life and China People's Insurance have seen approximately 200% growth over the past year, reaching historical highs [1] Group 2: Funding and Investment Logic - Analysts attribute the rise in insurance stocks to both funding and fundamental logic, with a focus on market fund allocation behavior [2] - Insurance stocks are favored by active equity funds due to their potential to outperform indices and higher elasticity in a low-interest, low-credit spread environment [2] - Institutional investors previously had lower allocations to the insurance sector compared to index weights, indicating room for increased equity allocation [2] Group 3: Fundamental Factors - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery and improved capital market conditions, with a positive outlook for company performance [3] - The insurance industry's operating characteristics are significantly pro-cyclical, suggesting that both liability and investment sides will improve with economic recovery [3] - Recent data indicates a marginal improvement in the interest spread that previously suppressed insurance stock valuations, with expected decreases in life insurance liability costs [3] Group 4: Long-term Growth Drivers - The emphasis on commercial health insurance is creating new growth opportunities, supported by national policies promoting a multi-tiered medical security system [3] - Companies like China People's Insurance have highlighted the potential for closer integration between basic medical insurance and commercial health insurance, indicating substantial growth potential in this area [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts emphasize the importance of asset-liability matching for insurance stocks' true value, particularly in a low-interest environment [4] - The improvement in liability costs and the stable returns from asset allocation are expected to enhance profitability stability for insurance companies [4] - Predictions suggest that the effective business value yield may reach a turning point by 2025, with a potential upward trend in interest spreads starting in 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Life Insurance, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance in the near term [5][10]. Core Insights - China Life Insurance's Q1 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 39.5% year-on-year to 28.8 billion RMB, with net assets rising by 4.5% to 532.5 billion RMB, showcasing stable performance [5][6]. - The company's strong asset-liability matching and leading position in the transformation to dividend insurance are highlighted as key competitive advantages [7]. - The report anticipates a recovery in new business value and new single premiums in 2025, driven by strategic adjustments in product offerings and sales approaches [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, the operating revenue is projected at 405 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 51.2 billion RMB, reflecting a decline of 13.8% [9]. - The forecast for 2025E includes operating revenue of 553.8 billion RMB and net profit of 109 billion RMB, with respective growth rates of 4.8% and 1.9% [10][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is estimated at 3.85 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.4 [9][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that the intrinsic value per share for 2025E is projected at 55.1 RMB, with a corresponding price-to-intrinsic value (P/EV) ratio of 0.73 [10]. - The valuation metrics suggest that the stock is currently undervalued, providing a favorable investment opportunity [10].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is rated as "outperforming the market" by Guolian Minsheng Securities, with expectations for positive trends in both the liability and asset sides, leading to improved investment returns and valuation recovery for insurance companies [1] Group 1: Stock and Performance Analysis - From January 2, 2025, to May 30, 2025, the insurance index increased by 0.1%, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 2.4%, indicating that the insurance index slightly outperformed the broader market [1] - Individual stock performance varied significantly, with China Pacific Insurance, China Life Insurance, New China Life Insurance, China Ping An, China Taiping, and China People’s Insurance showing price changes of +21.9%, +9.5%, +1.2%, +1.2%, +1.0%, and -8.7% respectively [1] - In Q1 2025, listed insurance companies showed strong performance on the liability side, with positive growth in life insurance NBV and improved COR for property insurance, although net profit and net asset performance on the asset side varied due to differences in investment strategies and asset classifications [1] Group 2: Life Insurance Sector Insights - The focus on the life insurance sector is primarily on NBV performance and interest spread risk, with short-term demand for insurance products slowing, leading to growth pressure on new single premiums [2] - However, measures such as the implementation of "reporting and pricing integration" in individual channels, potential further reductions in product preset interest rates, and active adjustments in product structures are expected to support a positive growth trend in NBV [2] - The liability cost is anticipated to improve significantly as the industry shifts towards dividend insurance products and adjusts preset interest rates in line with market rates [2] Group 3: Property Insurance Sector Insights - The low interest rate environment has prompted regulators to guide property insurance companies to enhance underwriting profitability, leading to noticeable improvements in COR [3] - The implementation of "reporting and pricing integration" in auto insurance is expected to extend to non-auto insurance, further improving COR in the property insurance sector [3] - The increasing share of new energy vehicle insurance is seen as a key area for future reforms, with expectations for reduced claims ratios and improved COR as policies are implemented [3] Group 4: Asset and Liability Management - The importance of matching assets and liabilities has increased due to the downward trend in long-term interest rates and the implementation of new standards, leading to greater volatility in insurance company profit statements [4] - To stabilize net profit and net assets, insurance companies are expected to increase allocations to bonds and high-dividend stocks [4] - Increasing the proportion of bonds will help extend asset duration and reduce the duration gap between assets and liabilities, while high-dividend stocks will enhance investment returns and mitigate the impact of declining investment yields [4]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Hang Seng Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Index (931024.CSI) **Model Construction Idea**: The index aims to reflect the overall performance of non-bank financial companies listed in Hong Kong that are part of the Stock Connect program[31][32]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the median daily turnover rate for each Stock Connect security over the past month as the monthly turnover rate. Exclude securities with an average monthly turnover rate below 0.1% over the past 12 months or 3 months, unless their average daily trading volume exceeds HKD 50 million[32]. 2. Select securities from industries such as insurance, capital markets, mortgage credit institutions, other comprehensive financial services, special financial services, and consumer credit as candidate samples[32]. 3. Rank the candidate samples by average daily market capitalization over the past year and select the top 50 securities. If fewer than 50 securities meet the criteria, include all eligible securities[32]. 4. Apply weighting factors between 0 and 1 to ensure no single stock exceeds 15% weight and the top five stocks collectively do not exceed 60% weight[33]. **Model Evaluation**: The index demonstrates strong representation of large-cap financial stocks, particularly in the insurance sector, and provides a focused investment tool for non-bank financial themes in Hong Kong[34][35][36]. Model Backtesting Results - **Hang Seng Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Index**: - **Total Return**: 53.30%[48] - **Annualized Volatility**: 33.26%[48] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 20.29%[48] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.56[48] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Market Capitalization Weighting **Factor Construction Idea**: Emphasize large-cap stocks to ensure stability and representativeness of the index[36]. **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Divide constituent stocks into market capitalization tiers: above HKD 500 billion, between HKD 200 billion and HKD 500 billion, and below HKD 500 billion[36]. 2. Assign weights based on market capitalization, with stocks above HKD 500 billion collectively accounting for 46.63% of the index weight, stocks between HKD 200 billion and HKD 500 billion accounting for 28.49%, and stocks below HKD 500 billion accounting for 8.31%[36]. **Factor Evaluation**: The factor ensures the index is dominated by stable, large-cap stocks, reducing volatility and enhancing reliability[36][40]. - **Factor Name**: Sector Allocation **Factor Construction Idea**: Focus on insurance and capital market sectors to capture the core of non-bank financial themes[34][35]. **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Allocate weights to sectors based on their representation in the index: insurance accounts for 65.11%, securities companies for 11.08%, and other capital market entities for 20.95%[35]. **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides a balanced yet focused exposure to key non-bank financial sectors, aligning with the index's thematic goals[34][35]. Factor Backtesting Results - **Market Capitalization Weighting Factor**: - **Weight Distribution**: - Above HKD 500 billion: 46.63%[36] - HKD 200 billion–500 billion: 28.49%[36] - Below HKD 500 billion: 8.31%[36] - **Sector Allocation Factor**: - **Weight Distribution**: - Insurance: 65.11%[35] - Securities Companies: 11.08%[35] - Other Capital Market Entities: 20.95%[35] Additional Observations - **Index Fundamental Characteristics**: - **ROE (2024)**: 11.69%[43] - **ROE (2025 Q1)**: 2.94%[43] - **Dividend Yield (Last 12 Months)**: 4.01%[43] - **Valuation Metrics**: - **PE_TTM**: 8.52 (22.76% below historical average)[44] - **Index Concentration**: - **Top 10 Constituents Weight**: 82.79%[41] - **Largest Constituent (Hong Kong Exchange)**: 17.69% weight[41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [82]. Core Insights - The adjustment of predetermined interest rates is expected to enhance the value of new business, with a projected decrease in the rate to 2% in the third quarter, which will lower the rigid cost of liabilities and improve product profitability [8][12]. - The expansion of long-term stock investment trials is anticipated to increase the flexibility of the asset side, with insurance companies actively seeking higher-yield risk assets to mitigate the pressure from interest rate spreads [20][27]. - There is a need for further optimization in asset-liability matching, as mismatches in duration can lead to fluctuations in net assets, particularly under the IFRS 17 standards [42][50]. - The valuation of insurance companies is primarily driven by improvements in the asset side, with the current PEV valuation level at 0.70, indicating that market valuations are below the intrinsic value of the companies [59][67]. Summary by Sections 1. Adjustment of Predetermined Interest Rates - The upper limit for the predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance is currently set at 2.5%, with a projected decrease to 2% in the upcoming quarter, which is expected to enhance the new business value [8][12]. - The insurance premium income for life insurance is showing signs of recovery, with a cumulative growth of 1.3% as of April 2025, marking a positive shift in the market [12][14]. 2. Expansion of Long-term Stock Investment Trials - The total scale of long-term stock investment trials has reached 222 billion, with several major insurance companies participating [25]. - The demand for high-yield risk assets is increasing as insurance companies seek to cover the rigid costs associated with liabilities [27][33]. 3. Need for Optimization in Asset-Liability Matching - The mismatch in asset and liability durations is causing volatility in net assets, necessitating better alignment to mitigate risks associated with interest rate changes [42][50]. - The average net investment yield for listed insurance companies remains around 4%, which poses challenges for long-term asset yield stabilization [50][56]. 4. Valuation Driven by Asset Side Improvements - The contribution of insurance contract services to profits is significant, with new business value expected to enhance overall performance [59][61]. - The current average PB valuation for five A-share insurance companies is 1.6, indicating a moderate valuation level compared to historical data [67][71].

Group 1: Company Overview - Zhongying Life Insurance was established in 2003, co-funded by COFCO Capital and Aviva, one of the oldest and most influential insurance groups globally [1] - The company is known for its strong customer service experience, having received multiple industry service awards, and maintains a high level of customer loyalty [1] - Zhongying Life emphasizes value orientation, focusing on service quality and intrinsic value growth, with robust asset-liability management capabilities [1] Group 2: Business Performance - In the first quarter, Zhongying Life outperformed the industry across all three major channels, achieving a record high in Value of New Business (VNB) [3] - The company is actively adapting to market changes and new regulatory environments, accelerating transformation to achieve counter-cyclical growth [3] - Zhongying Life is enhancing its product structure by increasing the proportion of high NBM products, such as commercial annuities and other protection products [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Zhongying Life is improving its investment research capabilities and has successfully managed long-term bond allocations, achieving significant returns [4] - The company has established a risk management system for investments, covering various risk monitoring indicators and early warning thresholds [4] - Its investment performance ranks among the best in the industry, having received multiple awards for excellence in investment management [4]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is facing significant challenges due to the decline in LPR and bank deposit rates, necessitating a shift from a "spread-dependent" model to a "three-spread balance" approach to mitigate interest spread loss risks [1][2][3] Group 1: Interest Rate Impact - The decline in interest rates is a critical factor affecting the insurance industry, particularly life insurance, as it compresses new investment income [1] - The upper limit of the preset interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has decreased from 4.025% to 2.5%, with a substantial number of high preset rate policies still in force [1] - The insurance industry must prevent interest spread loss risks to maintain operational stability and avoid systemic risks [1] Group 2: Three-Spread Balance Model - The key to risk management in the new market environment is constructing a "three-spread balance" profit model, focusing on interest spread, mortality spread, and expense spread [2] - Insurers need to transition from high-guarantee products to "low-guarantee + high-floating" products to stabilize interest spreads [2] - Dynamic pricing mechanisms linked to government bond yields or LPR should be introduced to mitigate cost-locking risks [2] Group 3: Enhancing Mortality and Expense Spreads - Increasing contributions from mortality and expense spreads is essential for insurers in a low-interest-rate environment [3] - Insurers should enhance the sales of health and term life insurance products and optimize pricing assumptions using more accurate mortality and annuity tables [3] - Cost control measures must be strictly implemented, including organizational optimization and digital transformation to reduce operational costs [3] Group 4: Opportunities in Challenges - The low-interest-rate environment presents both challenges and opportunities for insurers to reshape competitive advantages [3] - Insurers must abandon the "scale-first" development model and focus on product innovation, asset allocation optimization, and expense management to achieve sustainable development [3]

"降准降息落地！2.5%，进入倒计时！""警惕！保险市场或现重大调整"……5月12日，北京商报记者注意到，保险业预定利率或再度调降这一"情绪"正在保 险业中蔓延。根据中国人民银行日前更新的常备借贷便利利率表，将各期限常备借贷便利利率下调10个基点，自2025年5月8日起执行。此次降息与5月15日 执行的0.5个百分点全面降准形成政策组合拳。 今年4月21日，中国保险行业协会（以下简称"保险业协会"）组织召开人身保险业责任准备金评估利率专家咨询委员会2025年一季度例会。保险业专家认 为，当前普通型人身保险产品预定利率研究值为2.13%。 据了解，这是今年初监管推出"预定利率挂钩市场利率"机制后，首次公布研究值。今年初，《关于建立预定利率与市场利率挂钩及动态调整机制有关事项的 通知》重磅发布。其中提到，要建立预定利率与市场利率挂钩及动态调整机制，引导公司强化资产负债联动，科学审慎定价。 进一步来看，最新普通型人身险预定利率研究值2.13%，已较前值下降21个基点。根据触发条件，当保险公司在售普通型人身保险产品预定利率最高值连续 2个季度比预定利率研究值高25个基点及以上时，要及时下调新产品预定利率最高值，并在2 ...

保险行业 2025 年一季报综述 负债端凸显韧性，投资端加剧利润分化 2025 年 05 月 08 日 ➢ 整体业绩分化明显：债市波动加大，投资分化导致净利润波动加大。主要上 市险企中国人寿/中国平安/中国太保/中国人保/新华保险 1Q25 归母净利润分别 同比+39.5%/-26.4%/-18.1%/+43.4%/+19.0%，分化较为明显，其中国寿、人 保和新华一季度净利润同比高增，太保和平安则阶段性承压。上市险企净利润的 分化主要来自于新会计准则带来的波动以及资产匹配方面策略不同导致的阶段 性差异。IFRS9 下，TPL 债权投资在利率反弹时使公允价值变动损益同比大幅的 下降，导致当期净利润波动加大。 ➢ 寿险及健康险：NBV 延续高增，银保渠道贡献弹性，负债成本有望逐步下 降。中国人寿/中国平安/中国太保/新华保险/中国人保 1Q25NBV 分别同比： +4.8%/+34.9%/+11.3%/+67.9%/+31.5%，其中中国平安 1Q25 新业务价值 率为 32.0%，同比+10.4pct，代理人渠道 NBV 同比+11.5%。分红险等收益浮 动型产品的开发和销售，有望推动险企从过去的刚性兑付转向 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of five A-share listed insurance companies in the first quarter of 2025 shows two main keywords: differentiation and volatility [1][2]. Performance Analysis - All five listed insurance companies reported growth in insurance service revenue, with an overall increase of 3.6%. The total net profit attributable to shareholders reached 841.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [2][4]. - Profit growth rates varied significantly among companies, with one company experiencing a 40% increase, while two others reported a decline in net profit. Additionally, two companies saw a decrease in net assets [2][4]. - The volatility in profits and net assets is exacerbated by the new accounting standards implemented in 2023, which have intensified the impact of market fluctuations on insurance companies' financials [2][6]. Profitability Differentiation - On the liability side, listed insurance companies achieved stable growth. In Q1 2025, the total insurance service revenue was 4,098.71 billion yuan, a 3.6% year-on-year increase. China Pacific Insurance and New China Life reported net profit declines of 26.4% and 18.1%, respectively [4][6]. - China Life's net profit growth is attributed to significant improvements in insurance service performance, which offset the negative impact from investments [5][6]. - The fluctuation in net profit is largely influenced by the fair value changes of trading financial assets, with China Ping An reporting a loss of 21.80 billion yuan in fair value changes, compared to a gain of 34.49 billion yuan in the same period last year [6][9]. Net Asset Volatility - Some insurance companies also experienced fluctuations in net assets. For instance, China Pacific Insurance's net assets decreased by 9.5% to 263.61 billion yuan, while New China Life's net assets fell by 17% to 79.849 billion yuan [9][10]. - The new accounting standards have made net asset volatility more pronounced, with a significant correlation between net profit and capital market performance [7][10]. Measures to Mitigate Financial Report Volatility - Insurance companies are adopting various strategies to enhance the stability of their financial reports, including improving asset-liability matching and optimizing product structures [11][12]. - China Life has reported efforts to extend asset duration and manage liability duration effectively, reducing the gap from over 2 years to 1.5 years [12]. - The industry is also exploring innovative investment methods, with a notable increase in equity investments and long-term equity stakes [13].