拉长时间线看，兴业证券进一步指出，经历9月以来一段时间的震荡、消化后，新一轮上行动能正在蓄 势，接下来10月市场中枢有望再上台阶。申万宏源证券也表示，A股中期没有下行风险，短期调整也不 是大级别，调整兑现后，"红十月"是大概率。 配置方面，科技板块仍然是多家券商看好的方向。国泰海通证券表示，配置方面风格不切换，新兴科技 依然是主线。 "科创成长行情或未显示明显结束迹象，叠加'反内卷'政策升温，新科技与顺周期可均衡配置。"浙商证 券称。 中信证券：关注资源安全、企业出海和科技竞争 智通财经搜集了10家券商的观点，大部分券商认为，结合日历效应来看，节前投资者情绪或以避险为 主，节后伴随着政策面、基本面逐步明朗，资金大概率会持续回流。 银河证券表示，本轮行情主要推动力来自流动性宽松和政策预期向好，目前指数仍处上行第二阶段，长 假前缩量属正常避险，节后伴随着政策面、基本面逐步明朗，资金大概率会持续回流，不宜因短期波动 加剧而大幅调降总仓位。 "结合日历效应来看，节前投资者情绪或以避险为主。但考虑到资金的正反馈仍在持续、基本面改善仍 在蓄势，市场或偏向缩量震荡。"华泰证券指出。 资源安全、企业出海和科技竞争依然是最重要 ...

Group 1: Resource Security and Corporate Globalization - Resource security, corporate globalization, and technological competition are the most important structural market clues, corresponding to the industry allocation framework of resources, globalization, and new productive forces [2] - The essence of the resource sector's market drive is the insufficient investment in traditional resource industries under a high global interest rate environment, leading to supply constraints [2] - The stability of the trade environment and China's anti-involution are crucial conditions for maintaining the market, with the APEC meeting in October and the 20th National Congress being significant verification points [2] Group 2: Technology Competition - Chinese companies are shifting from strategic restraint to strategic advancement in the context of intensified Sino-U.S. technological competition [2] - The future AI competition is expected to spread from the cloud to edge devices, potentially reconstructing the established mobile internet application ecosystem and creating significant business opportunities [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Performance - The market is expected to experience a key window period with the upcoming 20th National Congress focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan," which may enhance market risk appetite [5] - The liquidity is anticipated to continue improving, with the margin financing balance in an upward channel, supporting the overall market [5] - The market is currently in a phase of cautious sentiment, with a slight decline in trading activity, but the overall upward trend remains intact [4] Group 4: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Key sectors expected to see improved or sustained high growth in Q3 include mid-to-high-end manufacturing, AI industry chain, and certain resource products [3] - The focus for investment opportunities is on themes such as new productive forces, anti-involution, and large consumption sectors [5] - The semiconductor, new energy, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals are highlighted as sectors with structural prosperity [6][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes resource security, corporate globalization, and technological competition as the main structural market clues, with a focus on resource allocation in the context of new productive forces [2] - The resource sector is driven by insufficient investment in traditional resource industries under a high global interest rate environment, leading to supply constraints [2] - The corporate globalization of Chinese companies is seen as a crucial but subtle fundamental aspect of the current market, with the stability of trade environments and the reduction of internal competition being key conditions [2] Group 2 - The third quarter is expected to show improved or sustained high growth in specific sectors, particularly in mid-to-high-end manufacturing and the AI industry chain [3] - Key sectors include battery manufacturing, military electronics, and AI-related components, which are anticipated to benefit from a recovering PPI and resilient export growth [3] - Resource products such as fluorochemicals, copper, and gold are also expected to see price increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics [3] Group 3 - The market is currently experiencing short-term volatility, but the overall trend remains positive, with structural opportunities still prominent [5] - The upcoming important meetings, such as the 20th National Congress, are expected to serve as critical points for market validation and potential recovery in risk appetite [5] - The focus for investment opportunities is on themes like new productive forces, consumer sectors, and areas benefiting from the reduction of internal competition [5] Group 4 - The market is expected to maintain a strong upward trend post-National Day, with historical patterns suggesting a favorable environment for stocks after holidays [6] - The focus is shifting towards sectors with structural growth, particularly in technology, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - The market's liquidity is anticipated to remain favorable, supported by ongoing improvements in macroeconomic conditions [6] Group 5 - The market is likely to experience a "red October," with continued support from long-term policy layouts and technological catalysts [8] - The technology sector is expected to maintain a dominant trend, with significant opportunities arising from new catalysts and structural changes [8] - The focus on anti-involution is seen as a key factor in transitioning from a structural bull market to a more comprehensive bull market [8] Group 6 - The current bull market is characterized by a lack of clear bubble signals, with strong structural features and a focus on key indicators [9] - The market is expected to remain in a strong oscillating state around the National Day, with no significant downturn risks anticipated [9] - The transition from a technology-driven growth model to one that includes export and globalization is being highlighted as a future trend [13]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities emphasizes that resource security, Chinese enterprises going global, and technological competition will be key drivers of market structural trends in the foreseeable future. These themes correspond to an industry allocation framework of resources, globalization, and new productive forces [1]. Group 1: Resource Security - Traditional resource industries are facing frequent supply shocks due to insufficient investment in a high-interest-rate environment, particularly in developed countries where private sector investment remains weak [1]. - The capital expenditure of traditional industrial enterprises in Europe and the U.S. has been low, with Japan's machine tool orders to Europe and the U.S. showing 28 consecutive months of negative growth [1]. - Predictions for major copper mining companies indicate a downward adjustment in production forecasts from 14.89 million tons to 14.21 million tons for 2025, with growth rates dropping from 6.4% to 0.6% [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions and national security policies are leading to more frequent supply shocks, as seen in the Democratic Republic of Congo's new cobalt export policies and Indonesia's tightening of nickel exports [2]. - Countries rich in strategic resources are increasingly recognizing the unsustainability of long-term low pricing and are controlling supply to maintain favorable price levels [2]. Group 3: Enterprises Going Global - The globalization of Chinese enterprises is a core fundamental driver of the current market, with companies generating over 20% of their revenue from overseas contributing 40% of profits and 37% of market capitalization [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) for non-financial A-share companies with significant overseas revenue has increased from around 7% in early 2022 to about 10%, while other companies' ROE has declined from 9% to around 6% [3]. - A stable trade environment is crucial for the sustainability of Chinese enterprises' globalization efforts, with the recent A-share market rally linked to improved trade relations following negotiations [4]. Group 4: Technological Competition - Chinese tech giants are increasingly clarifying their AI strategies, with significant investments announced by companies like Alibaba and Tencent, indicating a shift towards aggressive AI infrastructure development [6]. - The global AI investment market is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.9% from 2025 to 2029, highlighting the competitive landscape [6]. - The potential shift of AI focus from cloud to edge computing presents significant opportunities for domestic applications, allowing for a resurgence in the Chinese mobile internet sector [7].

给大伙提个醒，看这类机会别光盯着期货价格波动。可以往这几个方向琢磨：一是有资源储备的龙头企业，以后拿到矿权的机会更大，比如那些在国内重点 矿区有布局的公司；二是搞技术的企业，不管是低品位矿提炼还是再生资源回收，有技术就有话语权；三是沾着新能源边的品种，锂、镍、钴这些跟动力电 池紧密相关，长期需求摆在那儿，政策又给资源保障，不愁没行情。 各位投资者，刚刚八部门联手出了个大政策，专门给有色金属行业稳增长定调，又是找矿又是搞资源回收的，但你看盘面，稀土ETF跌了1个多点，铜铝镍 这些品种也都飘绿，这到底是咋回事？我是帮主郑重，干了20年财经记者，专做中长线布局，今天就用大白话给大伙唠透这里面的门道。 我是帮主郑重，跟大伙说这些不是让你急着下手，而是要看懂政策背后的长期逻辑。短期波动都是浮云，真正的机会藏在资源安全和产业升级的大方向里， 耐住性子才能抓得住。 先说说这政策的核心干货，其实就围绕"钱袋子"和"技术活"两大块。一方面是下力气找矿，专门盯着铜、铝、锂、镍这些宝贝，要知道咱们制造业、新能源 产业全靠这些资源撑着，之前不少还得依赖进口，现在西藏的铜矿已经探出亿吨级储量，四川也找到了亚洲最大的锂矿，这都是在给产业 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the strategic importance of antimony, a rare metal used in various industries, particularly in high-performance weapon manufacturing, and its classification as a critical mineral by multiple countries [1][3] - In response to the increasing demand and tightening supply of antimony, the Chinese government has implemented export controls to safeguard its strategic reserves, leading to illegal smuggling attempts by criminal groups [2][3] Group 1: Antimony's Strategic Importance - Antimony is recognized as a strategic resource essential for national defense, technological advancement, and industrial upgrading, making it a key material for China's development [3] - The international market for antimony is experiencing supply constraints, resulting in rising prices and widening price differentials between domestic and international markets [2] Group 2: Illegal Smuggling Activities - Criminal groups are attempting to smuggle antimony out of China due to high profit margins, with recent operations leading to the arrest of multiple suspects and the seizure of significant quantities of antimony [2] - One particular smuggling operation involved a family-based criminal group coordinating with an overseas financier to illegally export high-purity antimony ingots [2] Group 3: Government Response and Public Involvement - The Chinese government, through national security agencies, is actively combating illegal smuggling of antimony and has encouraged public reporting of suspicious activities to enhance resource security [3]

在中国新能源产业版图中，格林美（002340）（002340.SZ）是一个独特而关键的存在。 这家以"消除污染、再造资源"为使命的企业，从处理电子废弃物的"城市矿山"起家，如今已是全球领先 的新能源材料制造和关键金属资源回收巨头。 继2010年在深交所上市（A股）和发行GDR（全球存托凭证）之后，格林美近期再次启动资本战略升 级，筹划赴香港联合交易所发行H股，旨在构建"A+H"双资本平台。 从电子垃圾处理到全球巨头 在新能源产业链中，格林美占据了不可或缺的战略位置，其业务模式和所处赛道绑定"碳中和"与"资源 安全"两大时代主题。 其中，公司的核心竞争力在于其贯穿"城市矿山"和"新能源材料"两大领域的"资源回收-材料再造"闭环的 独特产业模式。 而从另一个角度来看，此次赴港上市，是格林美在全球化战略背景下对资本结构进行优化和风险对冲的 必然选择。 公司持续的全球化扩张，尤其是在印尼等地的镍资源和三元材料基地建设，带来了巨额的资本开支，导 致其投资活动现金流常年为负且规模不断扩大。 新的H股融资渠道，不仅能够分摊资本压力，缓解A股市场估值对企业国际化战略的支持不足，还能帮 助公司引入对绿色经济和ESG投资有偏好的 ...

在中国新能源产业版图中，格林美（002340.SZ）是一个独特而关键的存在。 这家以"消除污染、再造资源"为使命的企业，从处理电子废弃物的"城市矿山"起家，如今已是全球领先 的新能源材料制造和关键金属资源回收巨头。 继2010年在深交所上市（A股）和发行GDR（全球存托凭证）之后，格林美近期再次启动资本战略升 级，筹划赴香港联合交易所发行H股，旨在构建"A+H"双资本平台。 从电子垃圾处理到全球巨头 在新能源产业链中，格林美占据了不可或缺的战略位置，其业务模式和所处赛道绑定"碳中和"与"资源 安全"两大时代主题。 其中，据智通财经APP了解到，公司的核心竞争力在于其贯穿"城市矿山"和"新能源材料"两大领域 的"资源回收-材料再造"闭环的独特产业模式。 在资源端，格林美是中国镍、钴、鎢资源回收领域的领跑者，特别是在全球新能源汽车快速发展的大背 景下，锂离子电池及报废汽车回收业务成为其"城市矿山"皇冠上的明珠。 据资料显示，按回收量计，格林美在第三方退役锂离子电池回收领域居于国内第一梯队，回收处理量占 中国总量的10%以上。通过遍布全国的回收网络，公司将废旧电池"变废为宝"，确保了原材料的稳定来 源。 在材料制造 ...

Core Viewpoint - Greeenme's unique position in China's new energy industry is highlighted, focusing on its mission to eliminate pollution and recycle resources, evolving from electronic waste processing to a global leader in new energy materials and key metal resource recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Business Model and Market Position - Greenme's business model integrates "urban mining" and "new energy materials," aligning with the themes of carbon neutrality and resource security [2]. - The company is a leader in the recovery of nickel, cobalt, and tungsten resources in China, with its lithium-ion battery and scrapped vehicle recovery business being particularly significant [2]. - Greenme holds a top position in the domestic third-party retired lithium-ion battery recovery sector, accounting for over 10% of China's total recovery volume [2]. - The company focuses on producing key materials for ternary lithium batteries, ranking among the global leaders in both ternary precursors and cobalt oxide production [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - Greenme's total revenue is projected to grow from CNY 29.392 billion in 2022 to CNY 33.199 billion in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.3% [4]. - The revenue structure is shifting, with the share of revenue from new energy materials decreasing from 74.2% in 2022 to 60.0% in 2024, while the share from key metal resources, particularly nickel, is increasing from 16.9% to 30.4% [4]. - Despite steady revenue growth, the company's net profit shows significant volatility, primarily due to its reliance on the prices of commodities like nickel and cobalt, which are subject to global supply and demand fluctuations [5]. - The company recorded a non-financial asset impairment loss of CNY 830 million in 2023, largely due to inventory write-downs, indicating high sensitivity of profitability to external market factors [5]. Group 3: Capital Strategy and Global Expansion - Greenme's ongoing global expansion, particularly in nickel resource and ternary material base construction in Indonesia, has led to substantial capital expenditures, resulting in negative cash flow from investment activities [3][6]. - The upcoming H-share issuance aims to alleviate capital pressure, improve the company's balance sheet, and attract international long-term capital focused on green economy and ESG investments [3]. - The anticipated "retirement wave" of power batteries is expected to peak between 2027 and 2030, providing a significant growth market for Greenme, with a projected CAGR of 52.1% for retired electric vehicle batteries from 2024 to 2030 [7]. - The demand for high-nickel ternary precursors is expected to rise, with penetration rates increasing from 35.2% in 2024 to 70.0% by 2030, positioning Greenme to capitalize on this high-value growth trend [7]. Group 4: Strategic Outlook - Greenme's unique resource recycling model and technological barriers in new materials, particularly in the context of the "power battery retirement wave" and "resource security," provide long-term strategic investment value [8]. - However, the company's high-growth, high-investment strategy is accompanied by a high debt structure and potential liquidity risks, posing significant financial challenges in the short to medium term [8]. - The A+H listing represents a strategic move to balance global expansion with financial risks, necessitating careful evaluation of the company's long-term value against short-term risks [8].

Group 1 - The discovery of 1500 tons of gold in Liaoning marks a significant breakthrough in China's gold exploration, positioning it among the world's top gold mines [1][2][13] - This discovery enhances China's economic security and its status in the global mineral resource landscape, shifting from a passive consumer to an active player with increased pricing power [2][4] Group 2 - The Chinese government has invested nearly 450 billion yuan in geological exploration during the 14th Five-Year Plan, leading to significant discoveries across various mineral sectors, including oil and gas [2][4] - The emergence of a new "Asia Lithium Belt" across multiple provinces supports the growth of China's new energy industry, while breakthroughs in helium extraction technology reduce reliance on imports [4][11] Group 3 - Advanced drilling technologies have enabled significant discoveries, with China's deep drilling record reaching 4006.17 meters, showcasing the country's technological advancements in mineral exploration [6][11] - The increase in mineral resources, including oil, natural gas, and strategic minerals, strengthens China's economic resilience against global market fluctuations [7][8] Group 4 - The discovery of high-purity quartz, essential for high-tech industries, reflects China's shift towards innovative and efficient mineral exploration strategies [11][13] - The narrative of China transitioning from a resource-poor nation to a strong exploration power highlights the importance of technological prowess and sustained efforts in resource management [13]