逆全球化

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降息救不了美国!居民不买房,企业不生产,美联储陷入死循环
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-27 16:11
最近不少人都在聊美国的利率政策,觉得只要美联储一降息,美国经济就能重回正轨。 可事实真没这么简单,现在的美国经济就像一团乱麻,光靠降息这一把剪刀,根本剪不开眼前的困境。 就业数据被动手脚、降息传导链条断裂、通胀成了"顽固派",这三大矛盾凑到一起,让美国的经济迷局越来越难破。 想搞懂美国的利率政策,得先看美联储最在意的两个指标,通胀和就业。 以前美联储把重心放在压通胀上,现在明显开始往就业上靠,按道理说,只要就业数据不好看,降息就有了理由,可偏偏在这个节骨眼上,美国的就业数据 出了"幺蛾子"。 现在要是就业数据再被动手脚,美联储的独立性就更没谱了,以前大家还觉得美联储能根据经济实际情况做决策。 现在看来,政治因素已经开始绑架经济数据,这样一来,利率政策怎么可能贴合真实的经济需求? 很多人觉得降息是"万能药",只要利率一降,企业愿意投资、居民愿意花钱,经济自然就活了。 可现在的美国,偏偏卡在了最关键的一步,没人愿意加杠杆。 先捋捋降息的正常传导逻辑,降息后,居民、企业或者政府得有人敢借钱花钱(也就是加杠杆),这样才能拉动新增需求。 需求上来了,企业才会扩大生产、招人;就业好了,居民收入增加,又能反过来刺激消费,形 ...
广东外资三重跃迁背后的开放进阶
21世纪经济报道· 2025-09-27 09:21
在全球外资布局趋于谨慎的当下,广东依然以其强大的"磁场效应",逆势书写着高水平对外开 放的新故事。 广东省商务厅公布的最新数据显示,今年1-8月全省新设外资企业2.1万个、同比增长 34%,实际使用外资金额(FDI)708.7亿元、同比增长9.4%, 这2项关键外资指标增速都 显著高于全国平均水平 (14.8%、-12.7%),增速领跑东部主要经济大省。这份"成绩 单"的背后,是全球FDI连续三年下滑,今年前7个月我国FDI同比下降了13.4%的"寒冷气 候"。 作为全球知名的能源石化公司,埃克森美孚惠州乙烯项目在惠州正式投产。受访单位供图 究竟是什么,让广东在全球产业链重构与"逆全球化"杂音中,依然成为外资青睐的投资热土与 信任的港湾? 作者丨 南方财经首席评论员张立伟 编辑丨杜弘禹 蒋韵 与我国改革开放的历史进程同步,外资企业在珠三角地区的投资与发展经历了三个显著的跃迁 阶段,每一阶段都对应着国家发展的演进与全球产业格局的变化。 在当前的第三个阶段,广东以在全国新发展格局中的重要角色与战略地位,正在形成吸引外资 的强磁场。 广东利用外资的三个阶段 改革开放初期至上世纪九十年代中期,是广东初始融入国际市场的 ...
特朗普下令“全球无差别攻击”,他果然忘了,中方还有另一底牌
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-27 03:42
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that President Trump has announced high tariffs on various imported goods, including pharmaceuticals, heavy trucks, and home building materials, which could disrupt the global trade environment [1][2][4]. Group 2 - The pharmaceutical industry is significantly impacted, with a 100% tariff on imported brand or patented drugs starting October 1. This could lead to a potential increase in drug costs by $51 billion and a 12.9% rise in drug prices [4][6]. - The U.S. imported pharmaceuticals worth $203 billion in 2023, with 73% coming from Europe, particularly Ireland, Germany, and Switzerland, making European pharmaceutical companies the primary targets of these tariffs [4][6]. - Other affected industries include heavy trucks with a 25% tariff, kitchen cabinets and bathroom sinks with a 50% tariff, and upholstered furniture with a 30% tariff [8][9]. Group 3 - China plays a crucial role in the global pharmaceutical supply chain, supplying key raw materials for drugs, including antibiotics. China and India account for 82% of global active pharmaceutical ingredient production, with China's share increasing [10]. - Trump's tariff strategy may backfire, potentially driving pharmaceutical companies away from the U.S. market while also jeopardizing the supply chain due to China's significant role [10][12]. - The article suggests that the current tariff strategy reflects a misunderstanding of the complexities of global supply chains and may not yield the intended protective effects for U.S. manufacturing [10][12].
21评论|广东外资三重跃迁背后的开放进阶
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-09-26 11:51
(原标题:21评论|广东外资三重跃迁背后的开放进阶) 作为全球知名的能源石化公司,埃克森美孚惠州乙烯项目在惠州正式投产。受访单位供图 南方财经首席评论员张立伟 在全球外资布局趋于谨慎的当下,广东依然以其强大的"磁场效应",逆势书写着高水平对外开放的新故事。 广东省商务厅公布的最新数据显示,今年1-8月全省新设外资企业2.1万个、同比增长34%,实际使用外资金额(FDI)708.7亿元、同比增长9.4%, 这2项关键外资指标增速都显著高于全国平均水平(14.8%、-12.7%),增速领跑东部主要经济大省。这份"成绩单"的背后,是全球FDI连续三年下 滑,今年前7个月我国FDI同比下降了13.4%的"寒冷气候"。 究竟是什么,让广东在全球产业链重构与"逆全球化"杂音中,依然成为外资青睐的投资热土与信任的港湾? 与我国改革开放的历史进程同步,外资企业在珠三角地区的投资与发展经历了三个显著的跃迁阶段,每一阶段都对应着国家发展的演进与全球产 业格局的变化。 在当前的第三个阶段,广东以在全国新发展格局中的重要角色与战略地位,正在形成吸引外资的强磁场。 改革开放初期至上世纪九十年代中期,是广东初始融入国际市场的阶段。在这一 ...
美国中产正在消失?车价暴涨房价下跌,降息成了最后的止痛药
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 09:27
前言 聊起美国经济,最近最绕不开的就是"利率怎么走"和"矛盾怎么解"这两件事,这是资本的本质,也是美 国社会的根基之一。 很多人盯着美联储的降息信号,但很少有人把背后白宫、央行、市场的拧巴劲儿说透。 其实现在美国经济的核心问题,早就不是"降多少息",而是"政策方向能不能对齐"。 尤其是在就业数据这个敏感点上,美联储和白宫的角力,已经成了解开所有问题的第一道锁。 就业数据博弈 美联储主席鲍威尔最近的表态很明确:短期内美联储的重心从通胀转向了就业,言下之意就是"只要就 业数据冷下来,降息就有理由"。 这个逻辑本身没问题,毕竟美联储的双重使命就是控通胀、稳就业,但坏就坏在,美国的就业数据早已 不是单纯的经济指标,而是成了特朗普的"政治成绩单"。 此前美国大幅下修就业数据,特朗普对此震怒,随即解雇劳工统计局局长,任命自己的亲信EGAnthony 接任。 这位新局长上任后便公开表态,认为"月度就业报告可改为季度发布"。 尽管目前月度报告尚未正式调整,但政策风向已明确:特朗普绝不容忍"疲软就业数据"影响竞选支持 率,其任期内的就业数据必须"呈现向好态势"。 这一局面暗藏关键矛盾:若就业数据被"修饰",原本低迷的数据被调整 ...
跨境运营:2025年中国企业出海风险观察报告
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 14:18
Group 1 - The report titled "Cross-Border Operations: 2025 Risk Observation Report for Chinese Enterprises Going Abroad" focuses on the global risk environment, overseas market risks, and domestic industry operations for Chinese enterprises venturing abroad [1][4][6] - From 2021 to the first half of 2025, Chinese mainland enterprises established 35,893 subsidiaries overseas, with 2,292 new establishments in the first half of 2025, primarily in Hong Kong (47.8%) and the United States (10.7%) [1][26][30] - The export value reached 13 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, with electrical and mechanical equipment accounting for 42.2% of the total exports [1][42][45] Group 2 - The report highlights significant bankruptcy risks for enterprises, with a notable increase in bankruptcies in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in Australia and Singapore, which saw increases of 37% and 40% respectively in 2024 [1][53][54] - Payment risks vary significantly by region, with timely payment rates improving in most Asia-Pacific markets, while declining in several European and American countries [1][61][62] - In the domestic context, industries such as electronic information manufacturing and electrical machinery showed leading revenue growth, while sectors like metal products and textiles experienced sluggish growth [1][15][42] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the need for enterprises to enhance risk assessment of overseas partners using data and to manage domestic payment risks effectively to navigate the complex environment of going abroad [1][10][14] - The majority of new Chinese enterprises established abroad are concentrated in wholesale and retail (34.1%) and commercial services (21.6%) [1][36][40] - The report indicates that despite challenges such as trade wars and economic slowdowns, the number of Chinese enterprises going abroad remains significant, with a focus on understanding the risks associated with different markets [1][13][25]
【广发资产研究】流动性宽松延续,A股关注弹性——全球大类资产追踪双周报(9月第二期)
戴康的策略世界· 2025-09-25 13:09
Global Macro Trends - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18, leading to structural differentiation in global asset prices, with risk assets performing strongly overall but with notable differences among categories. Gold and U.S. stocks reached new highs, while Bitcoin experienced a significant decline [3][9]. - Economic data released on September 15 indicated a marginal slowdown in China's macroeconomic growth, with industrial output, retail sales, and fixed asset investment all showing slight declines compared to previous values, suggesting ongoing pressure on the economic fundamentals and increasing the likelihood of future easing policies [3][9]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is recommended as the optimal response to the evolving investment paradigm characterized by three underlying logics: intensified de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in AI industries. This strategy includes allocations to Chinese government bonds, U.S. short-term treasuries, Chinese convertible bonds, Southeast Asian equities, high-dividend and high-growth Chinese stocks, and gold [4][12]. - A tactical approach suggests that the A-share market is driven by domestic funds, similar to the microcosm of the 2014-2015 market, characterized by weak economic conditions, low interest rates, and supportive policies. The strategy involves reducing high-dividend allocations and increasing exposure to more elastic assets [5][12]. Key Economic Indicators - The report highlights several key economic indicators and events, including the upcoming release of China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs, U.S. ADP employment changes, and Eurozone CPI data, all of which are deemed important for market participants [15][16]. - The Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index has been positive but shows a declining trend, indicating that recent economic reports have been weaker than market expectations [21][23]. Financial Conditions - The U.S. financial conditions index has improved, reflecting a more relaxed overall financial environment, while the SOFR-OIS spread has widened, indicating some tightening in dollar liquidity [4][26]. - The report notes an increase in expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December, driven by ongoing economic uncertainties and policy adjustments [24][25]. Market Sentiment - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring potential risks from overseas markets as the domestic holiday approaches, advising on risk control measures [3][9]. - The ongoing trend of household savings moving into the stock market is expected to favor thematic investments aligned with high-quality growth directions, with a focus on maintaining high liquidity and growth potential in the A-share market [5][12].
机构看金市:9月25日
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 03:59
转自:新华财经 西南期货:"逆全球化"和"去美元化"大趋势利好黄金的配置价值和避险价值 混沌天成期货:美元指数和美债利率同步回升抑制贵金属 申银万国期货:黄金方面长期驱动仍然明确 道明证券(TD Securities):4000美元的金价是一个真是的可能性 法国外贸银行:珠宝需求走弱将令金价的涨势放缓 西南期货表示,当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂,"逆全球化"和"去美元化"大趋势,利好黄金的配置价 值和避险价值。各国央行的购金行为对黄金走势也形成了支撑。美国劳动力市场进一步放缓,美联储有 望持续降息,为黄金提供新的上涨驱动力。因此,贵金属的长期牛市趋势有望延续,前期多单可继续持 有。 混沌天成期货表示,贵金属较高位短线级别大幅回落,主要受到美元指数反弹以及上方获利盘共同影 响。更重要的是,美股的走势出现趋弱现象,主要源于科技AI行业的短线调整,这一定程度形成负反 馈从而加深市场压力。这是对流动性的考验,贵金属上涨趋势短线整理。不过,地缘形势波动有抬升的 迹象,重大政治事件使得全球政治敏感性显著上升,这对黄金而言存在潜在利好,并加强长期逻辑。 申银万国期货表示,金银涨势暂缓,出现一定调整。本周接连有几位联储官员讲 ...
凤凰湾区财经论坛2025在穗开幕——全球各界精英共谋 “新格局・新路径”下的新发展
凤凰网财经· 2025-09-24 14:08
由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"9月24日在广州举行开幕仪式。本届论坛由中国上市公司协会提供指导支持,广州医药集团有限 公司为战略合作伙伴,华润雪花啤酒超高端品牌"醴"为尊享合作伙伴。 "凤凰湾区财经论坛"此前已先后落地香港、深圳、横琴粤澳合作区等地,积累了深厚的影响力。今年,论坛首次落地广州,以"新格局•新路径"为主 题,汇聚政府官员、各国驻广州总领事、商界领袖和财经领域专家学者等,共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机遇。 嘉宾大合照 凤凰卫视董事局主席兼行政总裁徐威代表主办方发表开幕致辞。他表示,广州素有"千年商都"的美誉,始终是中国连接世界的重要枢纽。"在当前危 机并存、变局交织的时代背景下,在此举办论坛,正是为了开拓新格局、探索新路径,在多种可能中锚定方向,于多元声音中凝聚共识。"他强调, 凤凰卫视以传播中华文化、促进国际交流为使命,"我们不仅是现场的记录者、故事的讲述者,更是文化的桥梁、合作的信使、前行的同路人。我们 愿意与各位合作,以论坛为起点,让沟通持续发生、让共识照亮前路。" 凤凰卫视董事局主席兼行政总裁徐威致辞 本次论坛围绕全球经贸、企业全球化、数字经济、人工智能等主题,共设六 ...
加仓中国:外资会买什么?
2025-09-23 02:34
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the Chinese manufacturing industry, particularly high-end manufacturing sectors such as renewable energy, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals [1][2][4] Core Insights and Arguments - Some segments of the Chinese manufacturing industry are facing financial challenges during their expansion phase, with deteriorating free cash flow and reduced ROIC, while WACC has turned negative [1][2] - Fiscal subsidies and a contraction in capital expenditure in 2024 are expected to improve free cash flow for certain export-advantaged manufacturing sectors [1][2] - Strengthening of anti-involution policies is anticipated to further repair the financial conditions of related industries, leading to a revaluation of their stock prices [1][2] - The Hang Seng Technology sector is expected to experience a major upward trend, transitioning from being driven solely by southbound capital to a dual-driven model involving both southbound and foreign capital [1][3] - The expectation of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts is likely to accelerate the return of global capital to China, providing stronger upward momentum for the Hang Seng Technology sector [1][3] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Investors are advised to focus on Chinese high-end manufacturing sectors with export competitive advantages, including renewable energy, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals [2][4] - Long-term investment strategies should consider three main lines: hard currency under de-globalization (such as gold and resources), hard technology (like AI computing and innovative pharmaceuticals), and Chinese advantageous manufacturing sectors under anti-involution policies, specifically in sub-sectors like photovoltaics, wind power equipment, lithium batteries, and fiberglass [1][4][5]