Group 1 - Oracle's stock surged over 13%, reaching a record closing high, driven by strong performance outlook and robust demand for AI-related cloud services [1] - Boeing's stock fell nearly 5% following the crash of an Indian Airlines Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner shortly after takeoff, with 242 people on board [2] - The S&P 500 index reached a new closing high since late February, with eight out of eleven sectors rising, led by utilities and information technology [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for May rose by 0.1%, below the expected 0.2%, indicating a modest increase in wholesale profit margins [2] - Market expectations for continued inflation decline are rising, contributing to gains in interest rate-sensitive sectors and increasing the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut [3] - Gold prices increased by over 1.7%, reaching a one-week high, while oil prices experienced a slight decline [3]

6月中旬，美国通胀数据意外走低，引发市场对美联储年内提前降息的强烈预期，美元汇率随即承压下 行。周三，美元兑主要货币普遍下跌，反映出投资者对美联储政策路径重新评估后的集体反应。 策略师EliasHaddad指出，"美国通胀动能减弱，这迫使市场重新考虑利率走向。"他还提到，在当前平均 关税由2%升至15%以上的背景下，物价压力仍未明显加剧，这反而凸显了需求侧的疲软，使降息的可 能性进一步增强。 贸易谈判的积极信号一度支撑美元，但未能扭转整体弱势趋势。若相关谈判能带来对外贸易壁垒的实质 性放松，或将增强美元中期韧性，但当前市场仍以短期货币政策逻辑主导汇率波动。 从技术角度看，欧元和英镑兑美元双双突破近期整理区间，显示市场情绪偏向继续做空美元。若美联储 在未来两次会议中释放鸽派信号，美元可能面临进一步调整空间。 纽约午后，美元兑日元下跌0.2%，至144.58；欧元兑美元上涨0.5%，至1.1484，盘中一度因贸易谈判消 息涨幅收窄；英镑兑美元上涨0.3%，报1.3542；瑞郎兑美元亦上扬0.3%，至0.8205。 数据驱动的预期重定价是此次美元走弱的核心因素。美国5月CPI环比仅上升0.1%，远低于经济学家普 遍 ...

面对特朗普关税政策引发的贸易不确定性和国内经济增长放缓压力，印度央行（RBI）意外宣布大幅降 息50个基点，远超市场预期。 6月6日周五，印度央行货币政策委员会决定将基准回购利率下调50个基点至5.5%，这是该行自2025年2 月以来连续第三次降息，年内累计降息幅度已达100个基点。与此同时，印度央行将存款准备金率下调 100BP至3%，预期4%。 据彭博社报道，在接受调查的34位经济学家中，仅有1人预测到如此激进的降息幅度。 印度央行行长Sanjay Malhotra在孟买发表电视讲话时表示，通胀已"显著回落"至远低于目标水平，近期 经济前景让央行有信心通胀将在可持续基础上与目标保持一致。数据显示，印度零售通胀率已降至4月 份的3.16%，创近6年新低，远低于央行4%的中期目标。 降息降准后，印度债券上涨、股市涨幅收窄。印度10年期国债收益率下跌6个基点至6.19%。印度5年期 国债收益率下跌14个基点，目前为5.68%。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that supply chain data provides a clearer indication of the trend of inflation decline compared to the more volatile wage data [1]

英国央行货币政策委员丁格拉：所有货币政策委员会成员都肯定了通胀回落，我看到国内风险的下行压 力更大。 ...

欧洲央行管委帕内塔：通胀回落对欧元区经济的冲击尚不算过大，目前已接近结束。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia indicates that the tightening monetary policy has led to a slowdown in credit growth to a balanced level, along with signs of inflation easing [1] Group 1 - The tightening of monetary policy has resulted in a deceleration of credit growth [1] - There are emerging signs of inflation retreating in the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Turkey's Finance Minister indicates that the financial situation is tense, oil prices are declining, and the process of inflation reduction is proceeding as expected [1] Group 1 - The financial situation in Turkey is described as tense, suggesting potential challenges for the economy [1] - Oil prices are experiencing a downward trend, which may impact various sectors including energy and transportation [1] - The inflation reduction process is ongoing and aligns with expectations, indicating a potential stabilization in the economy [1]

欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔：通胀回落正在步入正轨，但新的冲击带来了新的挑战。 ...

Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - The World Bank's report indicates a general decline in commodity prices, predicting a 12% drop by 2025 and an additional 5% drop in 2026 [1] - Energy prices, particularly oil, are the main drivers of this decline, with Brent crude oil expected to average $64 per barrel in 2025, a 21% decrease from 2024 [1] - Coal prices are projected to fall by 27% in 2025 due to weakened demand and high inventory levels [1] Group 2: Metal and Mineral Prices - Metal and mineral prices are also on a downward trend, with copper prices expected to drop by 10% to approximately $8,200 per ton by 2025 [2] - Basic metals like aluminum, zinc, and nickel are forecasted to decline by 10% to 13% [2] - The decrease in metal prices may lower manufacturing costs but is unlikely to stimulate consumer demand [2] Group 3: Agricultural Commodity Prices - Agricultural commodity prices are generally declining, with wheat, corn, and rice expected to drop by 10.5% in 2025 due to ample supply and slowing demand [2] - Oilseed and edible oil prices are projected to decrease by 3% to 6% due to increased production and improved global inventories [2] - Prices for agricultural raw materials like cotton, rubber, and tobacco are anticipated to fall by 2% to 10% due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels [2] Group 4: Economic Impacts of Commodity Price Declines - The decline in commodity prices will have varying impacts on different countries, helping to curb inflation and stabilize consumption in importing countries [3] - Energy and food price reductions are expected to lower the consumer price index (CPI) globally, particularly benefiting developed economies [3] - Resource-dependent economies, particularly those reliant on oil, gas, metals, and agricultural exports, will face challenges such as declining fiscal revenues and economic growth [3]