Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey has decided to lower the benchmark interest rate from 43% to 40.5%, a reduction of 250 basis points, despite a stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter, indicating ongoing concerns about domestic demand and inflationary pressures [1] Economic Indicators - The current demand environment is aiding in the reduction of inflation, but rising food prices and price inertia in certain services continue to exert upward pressure on prices [1] - The Central Bank aims to maintain a tight monetary policy stance until the price stability target is achieved, with a medium-term goal of reducing the inflation rate to 5% [1] Historical Context - Turkey's inflation rate peaked at 85.5% in October 2022, prompting the Central Bank to restart the interest rate hike cycle in mid-2023 to combat high inflation [1] - As of August 2025, Turkey's inflation rate has shown signs of decline, falling to 32.95% according to the Turkish Statistical Institute [1]

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Egypt has significantly cut interest rates by 200 basis points, marking the third rate cut this year, following reductions of 225 and 100 basis points in April and May respectively [1][3] - The overnight deposit rate is now 22.00%, down from 24.00%, and the overnight lending rate is reduced to 23.00% from 25.00% [3] - The Central Bank attributes the rate cut to falling inflation and improving employment conditions, creating space for a gradual easing of monetary policy [1][3] Group 2 - The Egyptian economy is showing signs of recovery, with a real GDP growth rate of 5.4% in Q2 2025, compared to just 2.4% in the previous fiscal year [4] - Inflation has also decreased, with the Q2 inflation rate dropping to 15.2% from 16.5% in the previous quarter, and negative monthly growth rates in July for both overall and core inflation [4] - The Central Bank forecasts an average inflation rate of 14% to 15% for the entire year of 2025, indicating a positive outlook for inflation trends [3][4] Group 3 - The non-oil manufacturing sector grew by 16.03% in Q2, contributing 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth, while the tourism sector saw a 23% increase [7] - Exports have performed exceptionally well, with a 54.4% year-on-year increase in goods and services exports in Q2, significantly outpacing the 18.7% growth in imports [7] - The garment export sector demonstrated strong resilience with a year-on-year growth of 23.7%, highlighting the sector's responsiveness to global demand [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Egypt has significantly cut interest rates by 200 basis points, marking the third rate cut of the year, driven by declining inflation and improving employment conditions [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The overnight deposit rate has been reduced from 24.00% to 22.00%, and the overnight lending rate from 25.00% to 23.00% [2]. - The Central Bank aims to anchor inflation expectations and maintain a downward trajectory of inflation through this rate cut [2]. - The unemployment rate decreased from 6.3% in Q1 2025 to 6.1% in Q2 2025, indicating a positive trend in the job market [2]. - The Central Bank forecasts an average inflation rate of 14% to 15% for the entire year of 2025, with a target of 7% by Q4 2026 and 5% by Q4 2028 [2][4]. Economic Performance - Egypt's economy is showing signs of recovery, with a real GDP growth rate of 5.4% in Q2 2025, compared to just 2.4% in the previous fiscal year [3]. - Inflation has decreased from 16.5% in the previous quarter to 15.2% in Q2 2025, with negative monthly growth rates in July 2025 for both overall and core inflation [3]. - The non-oil manufacturing sector grew by 16.03% in Q2, contributing 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth, while the tourism sector saw a 23% increase [5]. - Exports of goods and services surged by 54.4% in Q2, significantly outpacing the 18.7% increase in imports, contributing approximately 2.7 percentage points to real GDP growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - The decision regarding the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will take several months, as stated by the Director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - President Trump requires several months to decide on Powell's successor, whose term ends in May next year [1] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is conducting a comprehensive selection process and interviewing several outstanding candidates [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Hassett commented that Powell's speech at Jackson Hole was reliable [1] - Powell indicated that changes in the baseline outlook and risk landscape may necessitate adjustments to policy stance [1] - Hassett noted that the annualized inflation rate over the past six months was 1.9%, indicating a significant decline in inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lowered the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%, aligning with market expectations, indicating a cautious optimism regarding the economic outlook while balancing inflation control and economic growth [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The RBA's decision to cut interest rates is influenced by a decrease in the core inflation rate to 2.7%, suggesting a reduction in inflationary pressures and providing room for further easing measures [1][3]. - The RBA aims to guide the inflation rate towards the target midpoint of 2% to 3%, reflecting a pragmatic approach to current economic conditions [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The RBA remains cautious about the domestic economy and inflation outlook, citing significant uncertainties in total demand and potential supply, as well as external risks in a complex global economic environment [3][4]. - The interest rate cut is expected to lower financing costs, stimulate business investment and consumer spending, thereby supporting economic recovery [3][4]. Group 3: Future Monitoring - Investors and market participants are advised to monitor upcoming inflation data and economic indicators to assess the actual impact of the rate cut and the RBA's future actions [3][4]. - The trajectory of future monetary policy will depend on whether core inflation continues to decline and if economic growth remains stable [3].

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities economist Hannah Liu anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will unanimously agree to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, but is unlikely to provide dovish guidance [1] Economic Indicators - The second quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) data suggests that the RBA's previous concerns about inflation may have been somewhat overstated [1] - The average unemployment rate for the second quarter was 4.2%, but it slightly increased to 4.3% in June [1] Economic Activity - Recent economic activity data has shown improvement, indicating that the current rationale for the RBA's interest rate cut is more about the policy space provided by falling inflation rather than a need for continuous rate cuts due to economic weakness [1]

Group 1 - Turkey's central bank unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate by 300 basis points to 43%, marking the first rate cut since the monetary easing cycle was interrupted in March due to financial and political turmoil [2][3] - The annual inflation rate in Turkey decreased to 35% in June, significantly lower than the peak of approximately 75% in May of the previous year, indicating initial success of tightening policies [3][4] - Moody's upgraded Turkey's sovereign credit rating from "B1" to "Ba3" with a stable outlook, citing improved policy continuity, credibility, and alleviation of external imbalances as key reasons for the upgrade [3] Group 2 - Despite the decline in inflation, analysts suggest that this is largely due to base effects rather than structural improvements, with expectations that inflation will remain high at the end of the year [4] - The market remains cautious regarding the consistency of policies and actual improvements in economic fundamentals, with the central bank emphasizing that future rate cuts will be carefully evaluated based on inflation outlook [5] - A recent survey of 34 economists predicts that the central bank's policy rate will further decrease to 41% by the end of September and to 36% by the end of the year, while the annual inflation rate is expected to be around 30% by year-end, exceeding the central bank's target [5]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained interest rates unchanged for the first time in over a year, with the deposit facility rate at 2%, marginal lending rate at 2.4%, and main refinancing rate at 2.15%, aligning with market expectations and previous values [1] - The ECB has highlighted "trade disputes" as a major source of policy uncertainty, indicating an "exceptionally uncertain" environment due to the unclear outcome of tariffs in US-EU trade negotiations [2][3] - Current inflation has reached the ECB's mid-term target of 2%, marking a key milestone in the current policy cycle, while domestic price pressures are easing despite high wage growth [3] Group 2 - Market focus is shifting towards whether the ECB will continue to lower interest rates, with expectations of a further 22 basis points cut by the end of the year, following eight consecutive rate cuts since June 2024 [4] - ECB President Christine Lagarde has indicated readiness to address challenges beyond trade issues, including the strengthening euro and upcoming EU fiscal expansions in infrastructure and defense [4]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs suggests that the Federal Reserve may consider an earlier interest rate cut due to the diminishing impact of tariffs and a decline in inflation [1] Group 1 - The reduction in tariffs has contributed to a more favorable economic environment, potentially influencing the Fed's decision-making process [1] - Inflation rates are showing signs of easing, which could further support the case for a rate cut [1] - The combination of these factors indicates a shift in monetary policy outlook, with implications for various sectors and investment strategies [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on the precious metals market covering the week up to June 27, 2025 [2] - It provides an analysis of the precious metals market including gold and silver, focusing on market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and macroeconomic factors [7] Group 2: Market Trends Gold - Gold prices initially rose due to increased safe - haven demand from Iran's attack on US military bases but later fell as the Iran - Israel cease - fire deal improved market risk appetite. Weak US economic data and mixed Fed officials' stances affected the market. Gold prices dropped significantly on Friday due to cooling risk - aversion [7] - COMEX gold was at $3304.6 per ounce on June 27, 2025, down 2.40% from the previous period; the Shanghai gold main contract 2508 was at 766.40 yuan per gram, down 1.88% [10] Silver - Silver prices showed resilience due to their industrial properties. COMEX silver was at $36.675 per ounce on June 27, 2025, up 1.83% from the previous period; the Shanghai silver main contract 2508 was at 8792 yuan per kilogram, up 0.61% [10] Group 3: Market Outlook - Weak US economic data and dovish signals from Fed officials boost the expectation of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is positive for the monetary attribute of gold. However, the upward movement of gold prices may face resistance as investors' interest in gold as a safe - haven tool weakens [7] - The cease - fire between Iran and Israel is fragile, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict affects European energy security, providing some support for gold's safe - haven demand [7] - Fed's policy stance and inflation - employment data will determine the future trend of precious metals [7] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - In the short term, be aware of the risk of price corrections. For the Shanghai gold 2508 contract, the expected trading range is 750 - 780 yuan per gram; for the Shanghai silver 2508 contract, it is 8700 - 9000 yuan per kilogram. For COMEX gold futures, the range is $3260 - $3350 per ounce, and for COMEX silver futures, it is $36 - $37 per ounce [7] Group 5: Market Indicators ETFs - As of June 26, 2025, the net holdings of SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.64% to 953.39 tons, and the net holdings of SLV Silver ETF increased by 0.70% to 14866.19 tons [15] Futures Positions - As of June 17, 2025, COMEX gold total positions increased by 5.77% to 441214 contracts, and net positions increased by 7.02% to 200648 contracts. COMEX silver total positions increased by 6.05% to 184831 contracts, and net positions increased by 0.79% to 67174 contracts [20] CFTC Positions - As of June 17, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 5.90% to 260586 contracts, and non - commercial short positions increased by 2.40% to 59938 contracts [25] Basis - As of June 26, 2025, the gold basis was - 7.28 yuan per gram, down 360.8% from the previous period; the silver basis was - 40 yuan per kilogram, down 133% [28] Inventory - As of June 26, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.9% to 37048334.61 ounces, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory decreased by 0.05% to 18168 kilograms. COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.20% to 498310493 troy ounces, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 1.70% to 1230233 kilograms [33] Group 6: Industry Supply - Demand Silver - In May 2025, China's silver imports decreased by 2.46% to 273741.39 kilograms, while silver ore imports increased by 10.54% to 136237148.00 kilograms [39] - In May 2025, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4240000.00 units, with a year - on - year growth rate of 11.5% [44] - In 2024, silver industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces (compared to - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year). Total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year [50] - By the end of 2024, total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year; total demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year; the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% from the previous period [54] Gold - As of June 26, 2025, the recycling price of China Gold decreased by 1.12% to 768.8 yuan per gram. The gold prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Liulifuzhou decreased by 1.18%, 2.16%, and 2.69% respectively [58] - In the first quarter of 2025, gold industrial (technology) demand was 7396.6 ounces, gold investment demand increased by 71.93% to 50741 ounces, gold jewelry demand decreased by 10.47% to 39899.9 ounces, and total gold demand increased by 7.12% to 120440.4 ounces [64] Group 7: Macroeconomic Factors - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year Treasury yield both declined [66] - The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility decreased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio increased [71] - The US 10 - year breakeven inflation rate decreased this week [76] - In June 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons, and the Central Bank of Turkey increased its gold reserves by 2.12 tons [80]