Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the core PCE price index, which is expected to provide direct guidance for the dollar and gold prices [1][5] - The latest ADP report indicates that private sector employment grew by 104,000 in July, exceeding market expectations of 75,000 [2] - The U.S. GDP annualized growth rate for Q2 is reported at 3.0%, reversing the previous quarter's decline of 0.5%, indicating a solid economic foundation [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates and emphasized that it is not in a hurry to cut rates, which has led to a rise in the dollar and a decline in gold prices [2] - The core PCE price index for June is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, consistent with the previous month [4] - If the PCE data, particularly the core indicator, exceeds expectations, the dollar may strengthen further, negatively impacting other major currencies and gold [5] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with key resistance at 3345 and support levels at 3270-3210 [6] - The monthly closing performance of gold is being closely monitored, with a significant focus on whether it can hold above the 3320 level [6] - Short-term outlook for gold remains bearish unless it breaks above the 3312 resistance level [6]

来源：中国金融信息网 新华财经北京7月30日电 距美联储议息会议公布仅有一天，但投资者似乎已经对决议没有意外之念，市场买盘纷纷涌入，4个月期以上美 债收益率周二（29日）悉数下跌，中长期美债收益率跌幅较大。当前市场普遍预期，美联储周三公布利率决定时，几乎可以肯定的是， 情况与6月份非常相似，声明内容几乎没有变化，官员们将再次推迟降息。 美联储前货币事务主管、现任耶鲁大学管理学院教授比尔·英格利希表示："如果放松货币政策，他们不会得到任何好处，只会让人觉得 他们是在向总统屈服。所以我认为他们最好的政策当然就是看看数据，做出最好的判断，做出政策决定，并尽可能地解释清楚。" 美国媒体称，两位美联储理事——克里斯托弗·沃勒和米歇尔·鲍曼，可能会对维持联邦基金利率在4.25%-4.5%的水平投反对票。如果是 这样的话，这将是自1993年末以来首次出现多名理事反对的情况。两人都主张降息。沃勒有望在明年接替鲍威尔，这使得他的投票更加 重要。 瑞士宝盛银行的首席经济学家大卫•科尔预计，美联储只有在9月份的联邦公开市场委员会会议上才会恢复降息。FOMC是决定利率的机 构。 科尔说："如果更确定的是，关税推动的通胀飙升只是暂时的 ...

Group 1: Market Adjustments - The bond market experienced significant adjustments from July 21 to 25, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.73% (+6.9bp) and the 30-year yield reaching 1.95% (+7.5bp) due to concentrated negative factors[11] - The average duration of interest rate bond funds, credit bond funds, and financial bond funds has decreased to 3.47 years, 1.24 years, and 1.49 years respectively, indicating a return to relatively safe positions after previously high durations[22] - The net outflow of funds from the banking system dropped significantly from over 4 trillion yuan in early July to less than 3 trillion yuan by July 25, raising concerns in the bond market[24] Group 2: Redemption Pressures - From July 21 to 25, the net subscription index for pure bond funds showed negative values, with significant redemption pressures peaking at -29.2 on July 24[27] - The total scale of wealth management products decreased by 125.2 billion yuan to 30.95 trillion yuan, reflecting redemption pressures amid a strong performance in equity and commodity markets[43] - Despite the redemption pressures, wealth management products continued to show net buying behavior, with a total net purchase of 107.6 billion yuan during the same period, indicating that liquidity management pressures remain manageable[51] Group 3: Risk Preferences and Market Outlook - The recent surge in commodity prices, with increases of 73.4% for coking coal and 43.3% for polysilicon, has raised concerns about inflation and its potential impact on the bond market[33] - The bond market may have already passed its most challenging period, with expectations of a stable funding environment supported by the central bank's actions[41] - The upcoming clarity from U.S.-China negotiations and the July Politburo meeting may influence risk preferences, with potential short-term cooling in the stock market expected[41]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report analyzes various commodities and financial markets, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and potential investment opportunities and risks for each sector [1][2][3] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Brent 09 contract fell 2.11%. The upside potential of oil prices above $70/barrel is limited, but the bottom is expected to rise in Q3 [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weak, and its cracking spread is declining. Low - sulfur fuel oil has no obvious demand driver, and its cracking spread is also decreasing [21] - **Asphalt**: Supply increase flexibility is to be observed. Demand is weak but has repair expectations. Prices follow crude oil, with limited upside before demand improvement [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Middle - East production pressure persists. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation in summer, with prices oscillating weakly [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are volatile due to high uncertainties in US tariff policies and EU counter - measures. Tonight's US CPI data is to be watched [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Prices are likely to fall in the short - term. Short positions can be held or option strategies can be used [3] - **Aluminum**: There is short - term callback pressure as the price breaks the upward trend line and inventories increase [4] - **Zinc**: Short - term price decline is difficult, but mid - term short - selling is still recommended due to increasing supply [7] - **Lead**: Prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Long positions can be held with support at 17,000 [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel has room for rebound, but short - selling opportunities should be awaited [9] - **Tin**: Short - selling is recommended as the price shows weakening resilience [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Short - selling positions can be gradually established as the price has limited upside due to sufficient supply [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices are expected to be strong, driven by improving fundamentals and polysilicon sentiment [12] - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [13] - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: Prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, following the trend of finished steel products [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Prices are likely to rise in the short - term, following the steel market [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Prices are expected to oscillate, with limited ability to follow the rise of steel prices [18][19] Chemicals - **Benzene & Its Derivatives**: Pure benzene has cost drag from falling oil prices. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in Q3, but it will face pressure in Q4. Styrene is in a range - bound pattern, with cost support [26][27] - **Polyolefins**: Polyethylene and polypropylene prices are in a range - bound pattern. Supply is expected to increase, while demand is weak [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices may follow market sentiment. Caustic soda prices are expected to be strong [29] - **PX & PTA**: They are in a narrow - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the repair of PTA processing margins [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. There are both positive and negative factors in the market [31] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber can be considered long. Bottle - chip's processing margin repair is limited [32] Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean report is neutral - bearish. Domestic soybean meal is expected to oscillate [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Long - term, vegetable oils can be considered long at low prices. Short - term, policy and weather should be monitored [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term trend is not obvious. It is recommended to wait and see [38][39] - **Corn**: Domestic corn futures are expected to oscillate at the bottom [41] - **Livestock & Poultry** - **Hogs**: The price has downward pressure in the medium - term. Hedging can be considered [42] - **Eggs**: The short - term downside is limited. The long - term cycle has not bottomed out [43] - **Cotton & Sugar** - **Cotton**: US cotton is rising, but the USDA report is bearish. Domestic cotton long positions can be closed temporarily [44] - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure. Domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [45] - **Fruits** - **Apples**: The new - season production estimate is bearish. A short - selling strategy can be maintained [46] Others - **Shipping**: The SCFIS European route index rose 7.3%. Short - selling of off - season contracts can be considered at high prices [20] - **Glass**: The short - term price may follow market sentiment. Long - term, supply contraction is needed for a significant rise [33] - **Rubber**: The natural rubber supply is increasing, while the synthetic rubber supply is decreasing. RU&NR can be observed, and BR can be considered for a rebound [34] - **Paper Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [48] - **Stock Index**: The short - term market risk preference is slightly strong. Technology growth stocks can be increased in the portfolio [49] - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - term long - position strategy should be cautious. A curve - steepening strategy can be considered [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - Fundamentally, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade mines remains stable; the supply of nickel mines from the Philippines has rebounded, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and the raw materials are in a tight situation. On the smelting side, currently, the raw material prices are high, while the nickel price is in a downward trend, which affects the profitability of other smelters and causes losses. Some non - integrated smelters choose to cut production. On the demand side, the profit of stainless steel plants is compressed, and the 300 - series is being converted to other products; the demand for new energy vehicles continues to rise, but its proportion is relatively small and has limited impact. Recently, both supply and demand are weak, downstream purchases on demand, domestic inventory has decreased, but overseas inventory remains stable. Technically, the short - selling force has weakened with the reduction of positions, breaking through the MA10 pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 120,830 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 350; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai Nickel is - 80 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 1,5190 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 40. The position of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel is 76,791 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,947. The net long position of the top 20 futures positions of Shanghai Nickel is - 6,072 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 250. The LME nickel inventory is 204,006 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 288. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 24,718 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 586. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 11,010 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,224. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 21,221 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 36 [3]. 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,250 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 122,450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 350. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,420 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 400. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 185.29 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2.65 [3]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 3.9272 million tons, with an increase of 1.0131 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 7.5923 million tons, with an increase of 0.1999 million tons. The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 73.42 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 5.44 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 23,900 metal tons, with an increase of 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, with a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 848,200 tons, with an increase of 31,300 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 396,000 tons (decrease not specified); the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 619,400 tons, with a decrease of 5,900 tons [3]. Industry News - The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% in May, the same as in April. In the 12 months through May, the PCE inflation rate climbed from 2.2% in April to 2.3%. Excluding volatile components such as food and energy, the core PCE price index rose 0.2% last month, while the core PCE inflation rate in April rose only 0.1%. Macroeconomically, the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Fed has risen moderately, with the core PCE price rising 0.2% month - on - month in May, and consumer spending has seen the largest decline since the beginning of the year. China's industrial enterprises above designated size saw their profits decline 1.1% year - on - year from January to May, and 9.1% year - on - year in May. The People's Bank of China's Q2 monetary policy meeting stated that it will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment, and flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation in the face of increasing trade barriers. Trump said he will choose someone who wants to cut interest rates as the Fed chairman, called Powell "stupid" for artificially keeping interest rates high, and believes the US interest rate should be between 1% and 2% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach with a reference price range of 265,000 - 272,000 yuan/ton. The fundamental situation shows high uncertainty in the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and restricted imports due to Thailand's ban on transit transportation. The Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in phases. Tin ore processing fees are at a historical low. On the smelting side, there are raw material shortages and cost pressures, and the开工率 is low. In terms of demand, the photovoltaic and electronics industries are in a downturn, and domestic inventories have risen slightly. However, overseas inventories are decreasing, and the LME tin price is strong, which drives up the domestic price. Technically, long - positions are weakening, but the price has reached the MA60 mark [3]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai Tin was 268,110 yuan/ton, down 760 yuan; the 3 - month LME tin price was 33,565 US dollars/ton, down 245 US dollars. - The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai Tin was - 20 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the position of the main contract was 31,484 lots, down 1,518 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in futures was 819 lots, down 696 lots. The total LME tin inventory was 2,175 tons, up 60 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory was 6,955 tons, down 10 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants were 665 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants were 6,750 tons, up 199 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price was 267,200 yuan/ton, down 1,800 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 267,760 yuan/ton, down 2,450 yuan. - The basis of the main Shanghai Tin contract was - 1,470 yuan/ton, down 570 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 120.01 US dollars/ton, up 24.01 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 257,000 yuan/ton, up 5,700 yuan; the processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 261,000 yuan/ton, up 5,700 yuan; the processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 173,630 yuan/ton, down 1,270 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 0.1445 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 0.1407 million tons, down 0.0339 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In the US, the PCE price index rose 0.1% in May, and the PCE inflation rate climbed from 2.2% in April to 2.3%. The core PCE price index rose 0.2% in May. - From January to May in China, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and in May, it decreased by 9.1% year - on - year. - The People's Bank of China's Q2 monetary policy meeting proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment. Trump criticized the Fed and advocated for lower interest rates [3].

Market Performance - European stock indices experienced a broad increase, with the UK FTSE 100 rising by 0.72%, France's CAC40 up by 1.78%, and Germany's DAX increasing by 1.62% [4] - The US stock market also saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 1%, and both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reaching all-time highs [3][2] Technology Sector - Major US tech stocks showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq-100 index rising by 1%. Notable performers included Amazon (+2.85%), Alphabet (+2.20%), and Nvidia (+1.76%), while Microsoft and Tesla saw declines of 0.30% and 0.61%, respectively [6][9] - Nvidia's stock reached a new all-time high, with a market capitalization exceeding $3.8 trillion, maintaining its position as the world's most valuable company [7] Chinese Stocks - Popular Chinese stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 0.22%. Century Internet surged over 18%, while other companies like JinkoSolar and Bilibili also saw significant gains [10] Commodity Market - Gold prices fell by over 1%, with London gold down 1.63% to $3,273.335 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures down 1.85% to $3,286.1 per ounce [17][19] - International oil prices also saw slight declines, with ICE Brent crude down 0.52% and NYMEX WTI crude down 0.26% [18] Nike's Financial Performance - Nike's stock rose by 15.25%, marking its largest single-day gain in nearly four years, with a total market value surpassing $106.4 billion [13] - The company's latest quarterly report showed revenues of $11.1 billion, slightly below the previous quarter's $12.606 billion but above expectations of $10.72 billion [15]

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market indices opened higher, with the Nasdaq Composite Index reaching a new historical high, surpassing the previous peak from December 2024 [1] - The S&P 500 Index also set a new historical high, breaking through the February 2025 high [1] - Chinese concept stocks continued to adjust, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index declining, and specific stocks like Zai Ding Pharmaceutical and Li Auto experiencing drops of nearly 4% and over 3%, respectively [1] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with spot gold falling over 2% at one point, primarily due to a decrease in geopolitical risks following Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's acceptance of a ceasefire with Iran [2][3] - The current high prices of gold are facing downward pressure, and investors are advised to be cautious, while silver is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern, potentially outperforming gold in the context of high gold-silver ratios and the release of overseas risks [3] Group 3: Inflation Indicators - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation measure in the U.S., showed a month-over-month increase of 0.1% in May, with the core PCE price index rising by 0.2% when excluding food and energy prices [4] - The PCE price index is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve for monetary policy decisions, making it a significant data point for market participants [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Expectations - Following the release of inflation data, traders are anticipating that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates starting in September, with increased bets on three rate cuts in 2025 [5]

Group 1 - US stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.25%, S&P 500 up 0.16%, and Nasdaq up 0.24% [3][5] - Cyngn saw a significant increase, rising over 70% [3][5] - Nike's stock rose nearly 12% after the company reported better-than-expected revenue for Q4 2025 [3][12] Group 2 - The Nasdaq index broke its previous high from December 2024, reaching a new historical peak [1] - The US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 0.1% month-on-month in May, while the core PCE index rose by 0.2% [9] - The year-on-year increase in the core PCE price index for May was 2.7%, up from the previous value of 2.5% [11] Group 3 - European stock indices also experienced gains, with Germany's DAX up 0.76%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.52%, and France's CAC40 up 1.31% [7][8]

柯林斯表示，她的基本预期是在今年晚些时候开始降息。"这可能意味着一次降息，也可能不止一次， 但我认为我们需要依据数据来判断。我没有看到降息的紧迫性。" 周四，多位美联储官员讲话，他们明确表示，需要再观察几个月，才能确认由关税引发的物价上涨不会 以持续性方式推高通胀，他们尚未准备在下次会议上支持降息。 近日，特朗普在其美国总统第一任期内任命的两位美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼的讲话引起关注。他们均表 示，如果通胀保持受控，他们愿意在美联储7月29-30日会议上就开始降息。 然而，自那以后，包括美联储主席鲍威尔、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯和旧金山联储主席戴利在内的约十位 美联储政策制定者纷纷对这一观点泼了冷水。 多位官员表示可以再等等 戴利在周四接受媒体采访时承认，越来越多的证据显示关税可能不会引发大规模或持续性的通胀上升。 但这只是让她对秋季降息持开放态度。戴利表示：" 我一直的主要预期是，我们将在秋季开始调整利 率，这一观点并未改变。" 今年以来，价格增长速度低于预期，美联储偏好的通胀指标在4月同比上涨2.1%，略高于2%的目标。 周四早些时候公布的数据还显示，持续申请失业救济人数升至2021年11月以来最高，过去六周明显上 ...