Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a rebound on Friday (August 22) after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated an openness to interest rate cuts, leading to increased expectations for a September rate cut [1] - For the week, the Dow Jones increased by 1.53%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.26%, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.58% [1] Oil Market - International oil prices saw a significant increase due to the lack of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which suggests that US sanctions on the Russian oil industry will continue [4] - US crude oil inventories showed a substantial decrease, contributing to oil prices rising for the first time in three weeks, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil up by 1.37% and Brent crude up by 2.85% [4] Gold Market - International gold prices rose by over 1% as some investors bought on dips following a period of decline, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut and a weaker dollar [5] Economic Indicators - The market is closely watching the US July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve [6] - Economists expect the core PCE index to remain unchanged at a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, with a slight year-on-year rebound to 2.9% [8] - Analysts believe that the upcoming inflation data may not hinder the Fed's rate cut in September, but higher-than-expected inflation could dampen rate cut expectations beyond September [9] Earnings Reports - Several technology companies are set to release their latest earnings reports this week, which will be closely monitored by the market [10]

【资讯导读】 ·特朗普提议与俄罗斯合作开发稀土矿产 ·加拿大央行会议纪要显示，鉴于贸易不确定性及经济韧性，决定维持现有货币政策不变。一些官员认 为目前降息幅度已足够应对关税对消费者价格带来的温和影响。 ·美国财长贝森特建议美联储立即启动降息 ·加拿大央行维持政策不变 ·日本央行部分理事提议放弃使用"潜在通胀"指标 【市场资讯】 ·消息人士透露，特朗普计划在俄美峰会期间向普京提出共同开发阿拉斯加稀土资源，并解除对俄飞机 零部件出口禁令。英国政府认为此激励措施"可被欧洲接受"。若会晤不顺，美国财长贝森特称可能加大 制裁或征收次级关税。 ·美国能源部宣布采取行动保障关键矿产和材料供应链的安全，并拨款10亿美元用于矿产安全项目。 ·美国财长贝森特强烈建议美联储立即启动新一轮降息周期，主张利率应比当前低150至175个基点。他 预计9月可能降息50个基点，并指出有10到11位候选人供考虑作为美联储主席人选。 ·美国联邦道德办公室警告，财长贝森特未遵守剥离金融资产的协议。8月11日，该办公室致信参议院财 政委员会主席Michael D. Crapo，指出贝森特在执行或修改协议上有违规行为。 ·根据MBA数据，截至8月8日 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a partial bullish or bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ななな - Alumina: なな女 - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 文文文 - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: な☆☆ Core Views - The market is affected by factors such as Sino - US tariff policies, US inflation indicators, and Fed interest - rate expectations. Different metals show various price trends and investment opportunities due to their unique supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiments [2][3][4] - Each metal has its own price characteristics, resistance levels, and trading strategies, which are determined by factors like inventory, production capacity, and downstream demand [3][7][8] Summary by Metal Copper - Tuesday, Shanghai copper fluctuated and closed positive. Spot copper was reported at 79,150 yuan, and the premium of Shanghai flat - water copper widened to 170 yuan. Hold previous high - level short positions [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The spot discount in East China narrowed by 20 yuan to 30 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 23,000 tons compared to Thursday. Consumption remained weak. The peak of aluminum ingot social inventory may occur in August. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [3] - Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai spot price remained unchanged at 19,800 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply was tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry was poor, showing some resilience relative to aluminum prices [3] - The operating capacity of alumina was at a historical high, the total industry inventory increased, and the market was in an oversupply state. Spot transaction prices showed signs of loosening, and spot indices in many places were slightly adjusted downward [3] Zinc - Sino - US tariff extension led to a warm macro - sentiment, and short - sellers reduced their positions, weakening the resistance to the rebound of Shanghai zinc. Downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient, and some traders lowered premiums to sell. There is a phased rebound space for Shanghai zinc, and wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded with active market trading. As the domestic anti - involution theme ended, nickel with a relatively poor fundamental situation will return to its fundamentals. Enter short positions actively as Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound [7] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated during the session and closed down at the end, with increased positions in the market. Spot tin was reported at 270,600 yuan, with a real - time premium of 700 yuan to the delivery - month contract. Wait and see or choose to go short - term long at low prices [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened high and went low with active market trading. The total market inventory slightly decreased to 142,000 tons. Pay attention to risk management due to abnormal price fluctuations [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon increased positions and closed down at 8,890 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate with support at the previous low of 8,300 yuan/ton. Pay attention to whether large factories in Xinjiang will resume production on a large scale [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon fluctuated and slightly closed up. The production schedule in August was significantly increased, and inventory would still restrict the increase of its spot price. It is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and do not chase high at the upper limit [11]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US has increased, causing the US dollar to weaken in the short term. The probability of a rate cut in September has risen to about 80% [3]. - The US second - quarter economic growth rate was higher than expected, but business investment growth slowed. The inflation indicator PCE showed a slight rebound [1]. - The US Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time due to high economic uncertainty, a stable labor market, and high inflation [2]. - The US non - farm payrolls data was far lower than expected, and the previous two months' data were significantly revised down, leading to Trump's decision to replace the BLS局长 [2]. Key Data - The US second - quarter GDP grew 3% quarter - on - quarter, better than the expected 2.4% [1]. - In June, the US PCE annual increase rose from 2.3% to 2.6%, and the core PCE index rose 2.8% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.7% [1]. - In July, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The June figure was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, and the May figure was revised down by 125,000 [2]. - After the data release, the Dow Jones Industrial Average once fell more than 400 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell more than 2% [3]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has risen to about 80% [3]. Policy and Events - Trump signed an executive order to keep the minimum reciprocal tariff rate at 10% and increased the tariff on Canadian goods from 25% to 35%, while extending the current tariff rate on Mexican goods for 90 days [1]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.5% unchanged [2]. - Trump ordered the replacement of the BLS局长 due to poor non - farm payrolls data [2]. US Dollar Index - The US dollar index rebounded in July and reached a two - month high of 100.257 last Friday but weakened short - term after the non - farm data, falling to 99 for consolidation. The resistance level is at 101 [3].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP grew by 3% in Q2, surpassing the market expectation of 2.4%[1] - The PCE price index rose from 2.3% to 2.6% year-on-year in June, with core PCE increasing to 2.8%[1] - Non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 110,000[2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive hold[2] - Following the employment report, the probability of a rate cut in September surged to approximately 80%[3] - The Fed's hawkish stance previously led to a six-day rise in the U.S. dollar index, which reached a high of 100.257[3] Group 3: Market Reactions - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 400 points after the employment data release, while the Nasdaq dropped over 2%[3] - The U.S. dollar index experienced short-term weakness, retreating to around 99 after the non-farm payroll data[3]

Group 1 - The most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 closed at $3342.3 per ounce, up $14.4, with a gain of 0.43% [2] - The increase in gold prices was supported by safe-haven demand, despite a slight decline during trading hours due to profit-taking and a significant drop in silver prices [2] - Market analysts attribute the weakness in gold prices and strong selling pressure on silver to the recent sharp decline in copper prices, which fell over 18% due to new tariffs announced by President Trump [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.6% year-on-year in June, slightly above expectations, while the month-on-month increase was 0.3%, meeting expectations [3] - Despite the record high gold prices, retail investors have returned to the market, boosting global gold demand, with total demand rising to 1249 tons in Q2 2024, a 3% increase from the same period in 2023 [3][4] - The World Gold Council attributed the demand growth to strong investment interest in gold ETFs, coins, and bars, although purchases by central banks and jewelers slowed in Q2 due to high gold prices [4]

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the core PCE price index, which is expected to provide direct guidance for the dollar and gold prices [1][5] - The latest ADP report indicates that private sector employment grew by 104,000 in July, exceeding market expectations of 75,000 [2] - The U.S. GDP annualized growth rate for Q2 is reported at 3.0%, reversing the previous quarter's decline of 0.5%, indicating a solid economic foundation [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates and emphasized that it is not in a hurry to cut rates, which has led to a rise in the dollar and a decline in gold prices [2] - The core PCE price index for June is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, consistent with the previous month [4] - If the PCE data, particularly the core indicator, exceeds expectations, the dollar may strengthen further, negatively impacting other major currencies and gold [5] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with key resistance at 3345 and support levels at 3270-3210 [6] - The monthly closing performance of gold is being closely monitored, with a significant focus on whether it can hold above the 3320 level [6] - Short-term outlook for gold remains bearish unless it breaks above the 3312 resistance level [6]

来源：中国金融信息网 新华财经北京7月30日电 距美联储议息会议公布仅有一天，但投资者似乎已经对决议没有意外之念，市场买盘纷纷涌入，4个月期以上美 债收益率周二（29日）悉数下跌，中长期美债收益率跌幅较大。当前市场普遍预期，美联储周三公布利率决定时，几乎可以肯定的是， 情况与6月份非常相似，声明内容几乎没有变化，官员们将再次推迟降息。 美联储前货币事务主管、现任耶鲁大学管理学院教授比尔·英格利希表示："如果放松货币政策，他们不会得到任何好处，只会让人觉得 他们是在向总统屈服。所以我认为他们最好的政策当然就是看看数据，做出最好的判断，做出政策决定，并尽可能地解释清楚。" 美国媒体称，两位美联储理事——克里斯托弗·沃勒和米歇尔·鲍曼，可能会对维持联邦基金利率在4.25%-4.5%的水平投反对票。如果是 这样的话，这将是自1993年末以来首次出现多名理事反对的情况。两人都主张降息。沃勒有望在明年接替鲍威尔，这使得他的投票更加 重要。 瑞士宝盛银行的首席经济学家大卫•科尔预计，美联储只有在9月份的联邦公开市场委员会会议上才会恢复降息。FOMC是决定利率的机 构。 科尔说："如果更确定的是，关税推动的通胀飙升只是暂时的 ...

Group 1: Market Adjustments - The bond market experienced significant adjustments from July 21 to 25, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.73% (+6.9bp) and the 30-year yield reaching 1.95% (+7.5bp) due to concentrated negative factors[11] - The average duration of interest rate bond funds, credit bond funds, and financial bond funds has decreased to 3.47 years, 1.24 years, and 1.49 years respectively, indicating a return to relatively safe positions after previously high durations[22] - The net outflow of funds from the banking system dropped significantly from over 4 trillion yuan in early July to less than 3 trillion yuan by July 25, raising concerns in the bond market[24] Group 2: Redemption Pressures - From July 21 to 25, the net subscription index for pure bond funds showed negative values, with significant redemption pressures peaking at -29.2 on July 24[27] - The total scale of wealth management products decreased by 125.2 billion yuan to 30.95 trillion yuan, reflecting redemption pressures amid a strong performance in equity and commodity markets[43] - Despite the redemption pressures, wealth management products continued to show net buying behavior, with a total net purchase of 107.6 billion yuan during the same period, indicating that liquidity management pressures remain manageable[51] Group 3: Risk Preferences and Market Outlook - The recent surge in commodity prices, with increases of 73.4% for coking coal and 43.3% for polysilicon, has raised concerns about inflation and its potential impact on the bond market[33] - The bond market may have already passed its most challenging period, with expectations of a stable funding environment supported by the central bank's actions[41] - The upcoming clarity from U.S.-China negotiations and the July Politburo meeting may influence risk preferences, with potential short-term cooling in the stock market expected[41]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report analyzes various commodities and financial markets, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and potential investment opportunities and risks for each sector [1][2][3] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Brent 09 contract fell 2.11%. The upside potential of oil prices above $70/barrel is limited, but the bottom is expected to rise in Q3 [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weak, and its cracking spread is declining. Low - sulfur fuel oil has no obvious demand driver, and its cracking spread is also decreasing [21] - **Asphalt**: Supply increase flexibility is to be observed. Demand is weak but has repair expectations. Prices follow crude oil, with limited upside before demand improvement [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Middle - East production pressure persists. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation in summer, with prices oscillating weakly [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are volatile due to high uncertainties in US tariff policies and EU counter - measures. Tonight's US CPI data is to be watched [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Prices are likely to fall in the short - term. Short positions can be held or option strategies can be used [3] - **Aluminum**: There is short - term callback pressure as the price breaks the upward trend line and inventories increase [4] - **Zinc**: Short - term price decline is difficult, but mid - term short - selling is still recommended due to increasing supply [7] - **Lead**: Prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Long positions can be held with support at 17,000 [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel has room for rebound, but short - selling opportunities should be awaited [9] - **Tin**: Short - selling is recommended as the price shows weakening resilience [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Short - selling positions can be gradually established as the price has limited upside due to sufficient supply [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices are expected to be strong, driven by improving fundamentals and polysilicon sentiment [12] - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [13] - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: Prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, following the trend of finished steel products [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Prices are likely to rise in the short - term, following the steel market [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Prices are expected to oscillate, with limited ability to follow the rise of steel prices [18][19] Chemicals - **Benzene & Its Derivatives**: Pure benzene has cost drag from falling oil prices. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in Q3, but it will face pressure in Q4. Styrene is in a range - bound pattern, with cost support [26][27] - **Polyolefins**: Polyethylene and polypropylene prices are in a range - bound pattern. Supply is expected to increase, while demand is weak [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices may follow market sentiment. Caustic soda prices are expected to be strong [29] - **PX & PTA**: They are in a narrow - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the repair of PTA processing margins [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. There are both positive and negative factors in the market [31] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber can be considered long. Bottle - chip's processing margin repair is limited [32] Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean report is neutral - bearish. Domestic soybean meal is expected to oscillate [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Long - term, vegetable oils can be considered long at low prices. Short - term, policy and weather should be monitored [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term trend is not obvious. It is recommended to wait and see [38][39] - **Corn**: Domestic corn futures are expected to oscillate at the bottom [41] - **Livestock & Poultry** - **Hogs**: The price has downward pressure in the medium - term. Hedging can be considered [42] - **Eggs**: The short - term downside is limited. The long - term cycle has not bottomed out [43] - **Cotton & Sugar** - **Cotton**: US cotton is rising, but the USDA report is bearish. Domestic cotton long positions can be closed temporarily [44] - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure. Domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [45] - **Fruits** - **Apples**: The new - season production estimate is bearish. A short - selling strategy can be maintained [46] Others - **Shipping**: The SCFIS European route index rose 7.3%. Short - selling of off - season contracts can be considered at high prices [20] - **Glass**: The short - term price may follow market sentiment. Long - term, supply contraction is needed for a significant rise [33] - **Rubber**: The natural rubber supply is increasing, while the synthetic rubber supply is decreasing. RU&NR can be observed, and BR can be considered for a rebound [34] - **Paper Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [48] - **Stock Index**: The short - term market risk preference is slightly strong. Technology growth stocks can be increased in the portfolio [49] - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - term long - position strategy should be cautious. A curve - steepening strategy can be considered [50]