Core Viewpoint - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 36.2%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 63.8% [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Federal Reserve Rate Expectations** - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in December stands at 36.2% [1] - The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is at 63.8% [1] - **Employment Data Update** - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has canceled the release of the October non-farm payroll report, indicating that it will be combined with November data [1]

Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - The iShares Silver Trust report indicates that as of October 9, the gold ETF holdings amounted to 1013.44 tons, a decrease of 1.14 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On October 9, the spot gold price closed at $3975.89 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 1.58%, with an intraday high of $4057.76 and a low of $3944.29 [1] Group 2: U.S. Labor Statistics - Despite the federal government shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is preparing to release the September CPI data, although the specific release date is uncertain and will not be on the originally scheduled October 15 [3] - The Bureau has halted all operations during the funding interruption, which delayed the release of the non-farm payroll report [3] - Some employees have been recalled to complete the report preparation, and the decision to release the data is linked to the annual Social Security cost adjustment process [3][4] - The delay in the September price data may postpone the announcement of the cost-of-living adjustments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the non-farm payroll report due to the government shutdown, but private sector indicators suggest a weak hiring environment, limited layoffs, moderate wage growth, and a cooling labor demand in September [1] Group 1 - Recent private sector indicators show weak hiring and limited layoffs in September, aligning with the low hiring and layoff trends observed before the government data suspension [1] - Wage growth remains moderate, indicating a stable but cautious labor market [1] - Michael Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist at JPMorgan, suggests that the Federal Reserve can confidently consider interest rate cuts later this month based on the current labor market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar remained stable due to the ongoing government shutdown, which is expected to delay the release of the important nonfarm payrolls report originally scheduled for Friday [1] Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown is impacting the release of key economic data [1] - The nonfarm payrolls report is a significant indicator for the labor market and economic health [1] - The stability of the dollar amidst uncertainty reflects market reactions to government actions [1]

Group 1 - China's September manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.7%, slightly up from the previous value of 49.4%, while the non-manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.5%, up from 50.3% [1] - A slight increase in both PMIs may support a rise in commodity futures and stock index futures prices, but could mildly suppress government bond futures prices [1] Group 2 - The USDA is set to release the quarterly grain inventory report, which will impact futures prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans [2] Group 3 - The US ISM manufacturing PMI for September is anticipated to be 49.2%, an increase from the previous 48.7% [3] - A slight rise in the ISM manufacturing PMI may support increases in prices for non-ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures, while potentially suppressing gold and silver futures prices [3] Group 4 - The EIA will announce the weekly crude oil inventory change, with the previous value showing a decrease of 607,000 barrels [4] - A continued decrease in crude oil inventory could support rising prices for crude oil and related commodity futures [4] Group 5 - The US Labor Department will report initial jobless claims, with expectations set at 215,000, down from the previous 218,000 [5] - A slight decrease in jobless claims may support increases in industrial commodity futures prices, except for gold and silver [5] Group 6 - The US non-farm payroll report for September is expected to show an increase of 39,000 jobs, up from 22,000 previously, with an unemployment rate forecasted to remain at 4.3% [6] - If the non-farm payrolls exceed expectations while the unemployment rate and average hourly wage growth remain stable, it may support increases in industrial commodity futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [6] Group 7 - OPEC+ will hold a meeting regarding oil production policies, with expectations of an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day and a potential lifting of a second batch of production cuts totaling 1.65 million barrels per day [7] - The outcomes of this meeting are anticipated to impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [7]

Economic Data Releases - The upcoming economic data releases are ranked by importance: US September Non-Farm Payroll Report, Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision, and Eurozone September CPI year-on-year [1] US Non-Farm Payroll Report - The US Non-Farm Payroll Report will be released on Friday at 20:30, with a previous value of 22,000 jobs and an expected value of 50,000 jobs, indicating optimistic expectations [3] - Historical data shows that a Non-Farm Payroll figure above 200,000 will boost the US dollar index, while figures between 100,000 and 200,000 have a weaker effect [3] - If the Non-Farm Payroll falls below 100,000, it typically results in a negative impact on the US dollar index, regardless of whether the latest figure exceeds previous expectations [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the end of October is currently at 89.3%, primarily due to a weak US labor market [3] Reserve Bank of Australia - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.6% during its decision on Tuesday at 12:30 [4] - The RBA has cut rates three times this year, totaling 75 basis points, with the last cut occurring in August [4] - Australia's second-quarter GDP growth rate was 1.8%, and the unemployment rate is currently at 4.2%, indicating a stable economic environment that supports the decision to keep rates unchanged [4] Eurozone CPI - The Eurozone's September CPI year-on-year initial value will be released on Wednesday at 17:00, with a previous value of 2.0% and an expected value of 2.3% [6] - CPI data is crucial for assessing inflation levels in the Eurozone and is a key factor for the European Central Bank's monetary policy adjustments [6] - If the CPI data shows a significant decline, the likelihood of the ECB restarting rate cuts may increase, potentially impacting the euro's value [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. labor market is facing challenges, as evidenced by the lower-than-expected private sector job growth in August, which added only 54,000 jobs compared to the anticipated 65,000 [1][5] - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted that the strong job growth seen earlier in the year has been significantly impacted by uncertainties, including rising consumer concerns, labor shortages, and disruptions related to artificial intelligence [4] - Employment in sectors related to trade, transportation, and utilities showed particular weakness, with a net loss of 17,000 jobs in August, while education and healthcare services also experienced a decline of 12,000 jobs [4] Group 2 - The report highlighted that wage growth remained stable in August, with pay for stayers increasing by 4.4% year-over-year and pay for job switchers rising by 7.1% [5] - The ADP report adds to the concerns regarding the labor market, especially following earlier data indicating that job openings and labor turnover (JOLTS) in July reached one of the lowest levels since 2020 [5] - Attention is now shifting to the upcoming non-farm payroll report, with economists predicting an addition of 75,000 non-farm jobs in August and a slight increase in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [5]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - Eurozone's August CPI preliminary value is expected to remain at 2.0%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August is anticipated to be 48.6%, slightly up from the previous 48 [2] - US factory orders for July are projected to show a month-on-month decline of 1.4%, an improvement from the previous decline of 4.8% [3] Group 2: Employment Data - The ADP employment change for August is expected to show an increase of 70,000 jobs, down from the previous 104,000 [5] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 30 are forecasted to be 226,000, slightly lower than the previous 229,000 [6] - The non-farm payroll report for August is expected to show an adjusted increase of 78,000 jobs, up from 73,000, with an unemployment rate forecasted at 4.3%, slightly higher than the previous 4.2% [7] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on economic conditions, which will be closely monitored for its impact on related futures prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 967.94 tons of gold as of August 28, 2025, reflecting an increase of 5.44 tons from the previous trading day, amid rising gold prices that surpassed $3400 per ounce [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of August 28, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings reached 967.94 tons, marking a 5.44-ton increase from the prior day [5]. - The increase in gold ETF holdings has occurred for four consecutive trading days [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Movement - On August 28, spot gold prices rose to a peak of $3423.2 per ounce, closing at $3416.78 per ounce, an increase of $19.3 or 0.57% [5]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to a weakening dollar and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 3: Economic Context - Recent economic data indicates resilience in the U.S. economy, with Q2 GDP growth revised up to an annualized rate of 3.3% [5]. - Initial jobless claims decreased to 229,000, and continuing claims fell to 1.954 million, both below expectations [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Analysts suggest that concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence have led to increased buying interest in gold [6]. - The technical outlook for gold remains optimistic, with prices trading above all moving averages and a relative strength index (RSI) above 50 [6]. - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3440 and $3500, while support levels are at $3360, $3350, and $3330 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate surged significantly, reaching a high of 7.1182, marking the first time since November 6, 2024, that it has surpassed 7.12, driven by a combination of stable exchange rate policies, strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign investment, and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][1][1] Group 1 - The offshore RMB appreciated over 340 points in a single day, indicating strong market momentum [1] - Analysts attribute the RMB's performance to a balanced approach in exchange rate policy and favorable conditions in the domestic equity market [1][1] - The Federal Reserve's dovish signals have heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, with officials indicating a potential 25 basis point cut in September [1][1][1] Group 2 - Market attention is focused on two key upcoming data releases: the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and the non-farm payroll report [1][1] - Deutsche Bank's chief economist suggests that the Fed is likely to adopt a gradual approach to rate cuts, depending on economic data performance [1][1][1]