Core Viewpoint - The non-farm payroll report indicates a significant downward revision of previous data, suggesting a stagnation in the labor market, which may lead to a reconsideration of the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates [1] Group 1 - Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management, suggests that if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had anticipated the current non-farm data, he might have opposed the decision to keep rates unchanged [1] - The non-farm employment report shows a stark reality with no embellishments, highlighting the challenges in the labor market [1] - Historical patterns indicate that the Federal Reserve made a mistake last year by not lowering rates in July, which led to an urgent rate cut in the following month [1] Group 2 - There is a concern that the Federal Reserve may repeat past mistakes by failing to adjust rates in response to the current labor market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is on track for its strongest weekly performance in nearly three years, driven by President Trump's new tariffs on numerous trade partners, which have not significantly harmed the economy or raised inflation [1] Economic Impact - Investors believe that the tariffs imposed by Trump have only caused minor damage to the economy, and the overall economic fundamentals remain acceptable, albeit not at their best [1] - The market may face short-term selling pressure, but this is viewed as a temporary retreat as investors wait for more data [1] Federal Reserve Stance - Despite Trump's pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, the Fed has indicated that it is not in a hurry to take action [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is not expected to have a significant impact on the dollar, even if the employment data is weak [1] Future Outlook - Unless extremely poor data emerges before September, it is unlikely that expectations for a rate cut will be reignited [1]

周五晚20:30，美国将公布7月非农就业报告。此前，就在周四凌晨，美联储主席鲍威尔在维持利率不变后表示，就业市场明显存在下行风险，需要密切关 注。 经济学家预测，此次数据将显示劳动力市场进一步降温，因为美国政府在关税与移民政策上的不确定性，企业招聘持续受到影响。 市场预计，美国7月非农新增人口将录得11万人，失业率将稍微上升至4.2%，平均时薪年率和月率料将录得3.8%和0.3%。 市场预期：非农11万+失业率4.2% 市场预期共识显示，7月新增非农就业人口预计为11万人，较6月的14.7万人略有放缓，但仍远高于大约8万人的"供需平衡"水平。市场预测区间依然很宽， 从零增长到17万人不等。此外，前两次非农数据的修正情况将受到密切关注，因为最近几个月修正值多为下调。 预计7月失业率将回升至4.2%，此前在6月降至4.1%，主要是因为6月劳动力参与率意外下滑。7月参与率可能略有回升，按四舍五入仍为62.3%，但这种回升 足以让失业率上升0.1个百分点。 4.2%的失业率并非令人担忧的水平，且距离美联储年底4.5%的预测仍有差距。随着不确定性持续存在，未来企业是削减工时还是裁员，将成为值得关注的 问题。 7月平均时 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market closed lower, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq retreating from historical highs as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy statement and reacted to disappointing corporate earnings [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 204.57 points to 44,632.99, a decrease of 0.46%; the S&P 500 dropped 18.91 points to 6,370.86, down 0.30%; and the Nasdaq Composite declined by 80.29 points to 21,098.29, a drop of 0.38% [1] US-China Economic Relations - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held constructive talks in Stockholm, focusing on US-China economic relations and macroeconomic policies [2] - Both sides emphasized the importance of a stable and healthy economic relationship, which is beneficial for their development goals and global economic stability [2] Corporate Earnings Performance - UnitedHealth reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.08, below the expected $4.59, and lowered its full-year EPS forecast to at least $16, causing its stock to drop by 7.5% [2] - Boeing's Q2 revenue was $22.75 billion, exceeding expectations, but reported a core EPS loss of $1.24, leading to a 4.4% decline in its stock [3] - Merck's Q2 sales were $15.81 billion, slightly above expectations, but its adjusted EPS of $2.13 was down year-over-year, resulting in a 1.7% stock decline [3] - UPS's stock plummeted by 10.6% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.55, slightly below expectations, and failing to provide full-year guidance [3] - Procter & Gamble's Q4 sales were $20.89 billion, with core EPS of $1.48, both slightly above expectations, but its growth forecast for FY2026 was below market expectations [3] - Novo Nordisk's stock fell approximately 22% after lowering its sales and profit outlook for FY2025 due to poor performance of its weight-loss drug Wegovy [4] Economic Data - The US trade deficit narrowed to $86 billion in June, a decrease of 10.8%, with imports down by 4.2% [4] - Job openings in the US fell to 7.44 million, below the expected 7.5 million, indicating stable labor demand [5] - Consumer confidence in the US rose in July, with the index increasing to 97.2, slightly above expectations [6] Upcoming Events - Investors are focused on the upcoming non-farm payroll report, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates [7] - Major tech companies, including Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, are set to release earnings this week, which are anticipated to significantly impact overall market trends [4]

Core Insights - The overall non-farm payroll report is considered good data, indicating a positive employment trend [1] Employment Trends - Employment trends are reported to be strong, reflecting a healthy labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Miran, argues that the non-farm payroll report counters the pessimism and hopelessness promoted by critics, emphasizing the job growth among native-born Americans since Trump's presidency rather than foreign-born workers [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Employment Growth** - The non-farm payroll report indicates significant job growth among native-born Americans since the beginning of Trump's administration [1] - **Criticism Response** - Miran calls for a focus on the positive employment trends rather than the negative narratives pushed by critics regarding the labor market [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming release of key economic indicators, including the US non-farm payroll report for June, the US trade balance for May, and the initial jobless claims for the week ending June 28 [1] - Additionally, it mentions the Canadian trade balance for May, indicating a focus on both US and Canadian economic data [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a weekly preview of key economic data releases and events, and analyzes their potential impacts on the futures market. Different economic indicators and events may have various effects on different types of futures, such as industrial product futures, stock index futures, bond futures, and precious metal futures. For example, if certain manufacturing PMI data is higher than the previous value, it may slightly boost the prices of industrial product futures and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [3][11][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Key Focus - On June 30 at 09:30, China's June official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI will be released [2][3]. - On July 1 at 09:45, Markit will announce China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI [2][11]. - On July 1 at 22:00, the US ISM will release the US June ISM manufacturing PMI [2][17]. - On July 2 at 20:15, the US ADP will announce the June ADP employment change [2][19]. - On July 3 at 20:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the June non - farm payroll report [2][22]. - Also, pay attention to domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Fed officials [2]. This Week's Hotspot Preview June 30 - China's June official manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.7 (previous 49.5), and non - manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.3 (previous 50.3). A slight increase in manufacturing PMI may slightly boost industrial product and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [3]. - Germany's June CPI annual rate initial value is expected to be 2.2% (previous 2.1%) [5]. - The US June Chicago PMI is expected to be 43 (previous 40.5) [8]. - The European Central Bank will hold a central bank forum in Sintra from June 30 to July 2 [9]. July 1 - The USDA will release the quarterly inventory report and planting intention report at 00:00, which may affect agricultural product futures [10]. - China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49 (previous 48.3). A slight increase may slightly boost industrial product and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [11]. - Germany's May real retail sales monthly rate is expected to be 0% (previous - 1.2%) [12]. - Germany's June seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate is expected to be 6.4% (previous 6.3%), and the number of unemployed is expected to increase by 15,000 (previous 34,000) [13]. - The eurozone's June harmonized CPI annual rate un - seasonally - adjusted initial value is expected to be 2.0% (previous 1.9%), and the core harmonized CPI annual rate un - seasonally - adjusted initial value is expected to be 2.3% (previous 2.4%) [14]. - Germany's June CPI annual rate initial value is expected to be 2.3% (previous 2.4%) [15]. - Global Western central bank governors will have a panel discussion at 21:30 [16]. - The US June ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to be 48.8 (previous 48.5). A slight increase may slightly boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related futures but suppress gold and silver futures [17]. July 2 - The eurozone's May unemployment rate is expected to be 6.2% (previous 6.2%) [18]. - The US June ADP new employment is expected to be 85,000 (previous 37,000). An increase may boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [19]. - The US EIA will announce the change in crude oil inventory for the week ending June 27. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [20]. July 3 - China's June Caixin services PMI is expected to be 51.5 (previous 51.1) [21]. - The US June seasonally - adjusted new non - farm employment is expected to be 110,000 (previous 139,000), the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.3% (previous 4.2%), and the average hourly wage annual rate is expected to be 3.9% (previous 3.9%). A significant decrease in new non - farm employment and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate may boost gold and silver futures but suppress other industrial product futures [22]. - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 29 are expected to be 240,000 (previous 236,000) [23]. - The US May factory orders monthly rate is expected to be 8% (previous - 0.37%). A significant increase may boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [25]. - The US June ISM non - manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.5 (previous 49.9). A slight increase may slightly suppress gold and silver futures [26]. July 4 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in circulation in late June, covering 9 categories and 50 products [27]. July 6 - OPEC + eight member countries will hold a meeting to decide the production policy for August, which may affect related commodity futures [28].

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Important economic data and events are scheduled for the upcoming week, including China's manufacturing PMI and the US non-farm payroll report [1][2] - Key Point 2: The "big and beautiful" bill proposed by Trump is expected to undergo a final vote, with less than a week remaining before the July 4 deadline [1] - Key Point 3: The European Central Bank will hold a forum in Sintra, where major central bank leaders will engage in discussions [1][2] Group 2 - Key Point 1: Various economic indicators will be released, including the US API and EIA crude oil inventory reports, as well as employment data from ADP [2] - Key Point 2: The week will also see the release of service sector PMIs for multiple regions, including the US and Eurozone [2] - Key Point 3: OPEC+ members will convene to decide on production policies for August [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, which is higher than the market expectation of 130,000, but reflects a slowdown in job growth amid trade policy uncertainties [17] - The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, indicating a potential delay in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [17] - The U.S. economy needs to create approximately 100,000 jobs per month to keep pace with the growth of the working-age population, which may decline due to immigration policy changes [17] Group 2 - Financial markets expect the Federal Reserve to maintain the benchmark overnight interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% this month, with a possibility of resuming easing policies in September [17] - The job growth in May reflects businesses hoarding workers amid uncertainty over tariffs, which is hindering their ability to plan ahead [17] - The opposition from conservative Republicans and figures like Elon Musk to President Trump's tax and spending proposals adds another layer of uncertainty for businesses [17]