Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is expected to experience a rebound in 2025, with prices showing a V-shaped recovery after hitting a low of 59,000 yuan/ton in June, eventually surpassing 130,000 yuan/ton by December, marking an increase of over 120% from the low point [1][2]. Price Trends - In early 2025, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated around 75,200 yuan/ton, dropping below 70,000 yuan/ton by the end of April and reaching a low of 59,000 yuan/ton in June [1]. - By July 2025, prices began to rebound, breaking through 65,000 yuan/ton on July 14, 70,000 yuan/ton on July 21, and closing at 76,680 yuan on July 24, eventually exceeding 120,000 yuan/ton by December 23 [2]. - The price increase is attributed to a combination of factors, including strong demand from the energy storage sector and a reduction in market inventory [2][3]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The global demand for lithium carbonate is projected to reach 2 million tons by 2026, driven by the growth in electric vehicles and energy storage applications [6]. - The domestic market in China accounted for 63.3% of global power battery installations from January to October 2025, with significant contributions from leading companies [3]. - The new energy storage capacity in China exceeded 100 million kilowatts by September 2025, representing a growth of over 30 times compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [4]. Industry Performance - Companies in the lithium sector, such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, have seen significant stock price recoveries, with increases of over 160% and 173% respectively since their lows in April [3]. - Ganfeng Lithium reported a 364.02% year-on-year increase in net profit for the third quarter [3]. Future Outlook - The lithium market is expected to face uncertainties in 2026, with potential price corrections if demand from the energy storage sector does not meet expectations [7]. - The development of alternative technologies, such as sodium batteries, may introduce new dynamics to the market, although current production costs and scale are not yet comparable to lithium batteries [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The 2026 China People's Bank Work Conference emphasized promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, and planned to use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [8][22][28][30]. - Multiple factors drive the copper price to be strong. Supply - side concerns and long - term copper consumption recovery expectations, especially from emerging industries like AI computing centers,新能源 industries, and grid transformation, may lead to a continuous firm or rising copper price [9][10]. - For the Container Freight Index (European Line), the 2602 contract may make up the water price, and the far - month contracts should focus on the water - making up and the fermentation of geopolitical events [11][12][144]. - The silicon iron market is driven by emotions and medium - term expectations, and the price may rise, but the sustainability needs further confirmation [13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals Copper - **Supply - side**: Global geopolitical turmoil raises concerns about copper mine supply. The 2026 Chinese imported copper concentrate long - term TC is $0/ton, lower than in 2025. Some copper mines face potential labor disputes and production changes [9][24][26]. - **Demand - side**: Long - term copper consumption recovery expectations are strong. AI computing centers and other emerging industries, as well as the new energy industry and grid transformation, drive copper demand [9][10]. - **Price trend**: Based on the long - term positive fundamentals, the copper price may remain firm or rise [10]. Zinc - **Market performance**: The zinc price is running strongly. The prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed [27]. - **News influence**: Policy changes and geopolitical events may affect the zinc market [28]. Lead - **Market situation**: The LME lead inventory decrease supports the lead price. The prices of domestic and foreign lead futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also shown corresponding trends [31]. - **News background**: Geopolitical events and corporate data influence the lead market [31]. Tin - **Market trend**: The tin price is in a range - bound oscillation. The prices of domestic and foreign tin futures and spot have increased, and the inventory has changed [34]. - **News impact**: Macroeconomic policies and corporate news affect the tin market [35]. Aluminum - **Market performance**: The aluminum price is oscillating strongly. The prices of domestic and foreign aluminum futures and spot, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and inventory, have all changed [37]. - **News influence**: Fed policy differences and geopolitical events affect the aluminum market [38]. Platinum and Palladium - **Market trend**: Platinum shows a recovery in sentiment and runs strongly, and palladium follows platinum. The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume, open interest, and inventory have changed [39]. - **News background**: Geopolitical events and corporate news influence the market [42]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: Nickel is in a wide - range oscillation, and stainless steel is affected by the fundamentals and Indonesian policies. The prices, trading volume, and open interest of nickel - related products have changed, and the Indonesian government has introduced relevant policies [43][44][46]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market performance**: The market sentiment of carbonate lithium is strong. The prices of carbonate lithium futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and open interest have changed [47]. - **News influence**: The price negotiation of lithium iron phosphate and the release of new battery products affect the market [48][49]. Energy and Chemicals Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market trend**: Industrial silicon is affected by news and shows a strong performance, and polysilicon needs to pay attention to market news. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon have changed [50]. - **News background**: The proposed implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi affects the industrial silicon market [51]. Iron Ore - **Market situation**: The iron ore price is fluctuating at a high level. The prices of iron ore futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume, open interest, and inventory have also shown corresponding trends [54][55]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market performance**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by market sentiment and are in a wide - range oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil have changed, and relevant policies have been introduced [58][59][60]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Market trend**: The prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon are oscillating upwards. The prices of futures and spot, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and inventory, have changed. The market is affected by potential electricity price increases and other factors [63][64][65]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market situation**: Coke and coking coal are in a wide - range oscillation with accumulating contradictions. The prices of futures and spot, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and inventory, have changed [67]. Logs - **Market performance**: The log price is oscillating at a low level. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of log futures and spot have changed [70][71][73]. p - Xylene, PTA, and MEG - **Market trend**: p - Xylene is in a short - term high - level oscillation, PTA is in a high - level oscillation, and MEG has limited upward space and medium - term pressure. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of relevant products have changed, and market news affects the market [74][75][76]. Rubber - **Market situation**: The rubber price is oscillating strongly. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of rubber futures and spot have changed, and the rubber cost support is strengthening [79][80][81]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market performance**: The short - term center of synthetic rubber moves upwards. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of synthetic rubber futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by the cost of butadiene [82][83][84]. LLDPE - **Market trend**: The LLDPE price is firm, and the standard product production decreases. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of LLDPE futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by raw material prices and supply - demand relationships [85][86]. PP - **Market situation**: The PP price is weak. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of PP futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by cost and demand [88][89]. Caustic Soda - **Market performance**: Caustic soda is strong in the short - term and oscillating in the medium - term. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of caustic soda futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as delivery and supply - demand [90][91][92]. Pulp - **Market trend**: The pulp price is oscillating strongly. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of pulp futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by raw material prices and demand [95][97][98]. Glass - **Market situation**: The glass price is stable. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of glass futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by the holiday atmosphere and demand [100][101]. Methanol - **Market performance**: Methanol is strong in the short - term. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of methanol futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations [103][104][106]. Urea - **Market situation**: The urea price center moves upwards. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of urea futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as demand expectations and inventory [108][109][110]. Styrene - **Market trend**: Styrene is in a short - term oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of styrene futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as valuation and supply - demand [113][114][115]. Soda Ash - **Market situation**: The soda ash market changes little. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of soda ash futures and spot have changed [117][119]. LPG and Propylene - **Market performance**: The LPG import cost is firm, and propylene demand is stable with a slight price increase. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of LPG and propylene futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [121]. PVC - **Market trend**: PVC is strong in the short - term but has limited upward space. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of PVC futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and inventory [129][130][131]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market situation**: Fuel oil turns strong and is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures and spot have changed [134]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Market performance**: The 2602 contract may make up the water price, and the far - month contracts should focus on the water - making up and geopolitical events. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of relevant contracts have changed, and the shipping capacity and freight rates have also been affected [136][142][143]. Agricultural Products Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Market situation**: Short - fiber and bottle chip are in a short - term oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures and spot have changed [146][147]. Offset Printing Paper - **Market performance**: It is advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of offset printing paper futures and spot have changed, and the market demand is weak [149][150][152]. Pure Benzene - **Market situation**: Pure benzene is in a short - term oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of pure benzene futures and spot have changed, and the port inventory has increased [153][154]. Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - **Market performance**: Palm oil is affected by macro - emotions, soybean oil is in a range - bound operation, and rapeseed oil shows corresponding price changes. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of relevant futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [157][158][159]. Soybean Meal and Soybeans - **Market situation**: Soybean meal may oscillate, and soybeans are in an oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of soybean meal and soybean futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as Chinese purchases and USDA reports [162][163][164]. Corn - **Market performance**: Attention should be paid to the corn spot. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of corn futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as spot prices and import information [165][166][167]. Sugar - **Market situation**: Sugar is in a low - level consolidation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of sugar futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as production and import [169][170][171]. Cotton - **Market performance**: Cotton remains strong. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of cotton futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as spot trading and textile enterprise operations [174][175]. Eggs - **Market situation**: The far - month sentiment of eggs weakens. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of egg futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [178]. Hogs - **Market performance**: There is still inventory accumulation for hogs. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of hog futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [181][183][184]. Peanuts - **Market situation**: Peanuts are in an oscillating operation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of peanut futures and spot have changed, and the spot market price is relatively stable [187][188].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper lacks obvious driving forces, with prices oscillating at high levels, and the idea of buying on dips remains unchanged. The strength analysis is neutral, with a price range of 96,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton, and the COMEX - LME price spread has fallen back to around $100/ton [3]. - Macro - and fundamental factors lack obvious driving forces for price movement. Geopolitical turmoil globally may intensify risk - aversion sentiment. In the short - term, the domestic spot driving logic is weak, while the overseas spot logic remains strong. Long - term fundamentals still support copper prices, with a significant drop in China's imported copper concentrate long - term TC in 2026 and a strong long - term consumption recovery expectation [7]. - In terms of trading strategies, the short - term upward driving force for prices is not strong, but the idea of buying copper on dips remains unchanged due to the long - term positive fundamentals. For spread trading, the COMEX - LME spread has weakened, and it is advisable to reduce positions in the LME - SHFE positive spread trading when opportunities arise. Also, be cautious with the internal - external reverse spread as the current spot export profit margin has narrowed [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - Volatility: The volatilities of LME, SHFE, INE, and COMEX copper have expanded. The LME copper price volatility is around 16%, up from the previous week, and the SHFE copper volatility is around 19%, slightly up from the previous week [12]. - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper has strengthened marginally, and the LME copper spot premium has expanded. The SHFE 01 - 02 spread was 560 yuan/ton on December 31, higher than - 120 yuan/ton on December 26. The LME 0 - 3 premium was $38.60/ton on January 2, 2026, higher than $19.69/ton on December 24, 2025. The COMEX copper near - end C - structure has expanded [17][19]. - Position: SHFE and LME copper positions have decreased, while INE copper positions have increased. SHFE copper positions have decreased by 37,000 lots to 617,700 lots [20]. - Capital and Industry Positions: LME commercial short net positions have increased. LME commercial short net positions increased from 76,400 lots on December 19 to 77,500 lots on December 24; CFTC non - commercial long net positions increased from 64,800 lots on December 16 to 67,100 lots on December 23 [26]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot discount has narrowed, and the Yangshan Port copper premium has declined. The domestic copper spot premium narrowed from a discount of 340 yuan/ton on December 26 to a discount of 190 yuan/ton on December 31. The Yangshan Port copper premium fell from $55/ton on December 26 to $51/ton on December 31 [31]. - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased, with a significant increase in domestic social inventory. The global total copper inventory increased from 853,000 tons on December 25 to 905,500 tons on January 1, 2026. Domestic social inventory increased from 193,600 tons on December 25 to 238,900 tons on January 1, 2026 [37]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has oscillated, and the SHFE copper position - to - inventory ratio is at a historically low level for the same period [38]. 3.2 Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Imports have increased year - on - year, and processing fees have remained weak. In November 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.5262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 12.55%. Port inventory decreased from 680,000 tons on December 19 to 670,000 tons on December 26 [43]. - Recycled Copper: Imports have increased year - on - year, and domestic production has increased significantly year - on - year. In November, recycled copper imports were 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.94%. In September, domestic recycled copper production was 97,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.85% [44]. - Crude Copper: Imports have increased month - on - month, and processing fees have rebounded. In November, crude copper imports were 58,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.60%. In December, the southern processing fee was 1,500 yuan/ton, and the import processing fee was $95/ton [52]. - Refined Copper: Production has increased year - on - year, imports have decreased, and the loss in copper spot imports has narrowed. In November, refined copper production was 1.1031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The loss in copper spot imports narrowed from 1,900.19 yuan/ton on December 24 to 1,083.72 yuan/ton on December 31 [55]. 3.3 Demand End - Capacity Utilization Rate: In November, the capacity utilization rate of copper product enterprises increased month - on - month. The capacity utilization rates of copper tubes and copper plates, strips, and foils rebounded in November but remained at historically low levels. In the week of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of wire and cable production decreased marginally [59]. - Profit: The copper rod processing fee is at a historically low level for the same period, and the copper tube processing fee has rebounded. As of December 31, the processing fee for copper rods used in the power industry in East China was 240 yuan/ton, higher than 110 yuan/ton on December 26. The 10 - day moving average of the processing fee for R410A - specific copper tubes was 5,343 yuan/ton on December 31, higher than 5,274 yuan/ton on December 26 [64]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has remained at a low level. In November, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a slightly lower - than - neutral position for the same period in history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a historically low level. The weekly raw material inventory of wire and cable has continued to decline [65]. - Finished - Product Inventory: The finished - product inventory of copper rods is at a high level, and the finished - product inventory of wire and cable has increased. In November, the finished - product inventory of copper rods was at a historically high level for the same period, and the finished - product inventory of copper tubes was at a relatively low level for the same period. The weekly finished - product inventory of wire and cable has increased [68]. 3.4 Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: Apparent consumption is good, and power grid investment remains an important support. From January to October, the cumulative actual copper consumption was 13.2983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.36%, and the apparent consumption was 13.4169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.00%. Power grid investment increased by 5.90% year - on - year from January to November [76]. - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production: In November, the domestic air - conditioner production was 10.577 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 35.70%, and the domestic new - energy vehicle production was 1.88 million units, a year - on - year increase of 20.05% [77].

Core Insights - The average return of "Hong Kong" equity funds for the year 2025 reached 21.79%, with 106 funds exceeding a 50% return [1] - Four funds achieved over 100% returns, with the top performer being Qianhai Kaiyuan Hong Kong-Shenzhen Enjoy Life Fund at 122.08% [3] Fund Performance - The top-performing funds in 2025 included: - Qianhai Kaiyuan Hong Kong-Shenzhen Enjoy Life: 122.08% - Huatai-PB Hong Kong Advantage Selection A: 114.19% - Huatai-PB Hong Kong Advantage Selection C: 113.83% - Baoyin Internet Hong Kong-Shenzhen: 100.50% [2][3] - Several funds focused on sectors such as internet, CPO, and biomedicine, contributing to their strong performance [3] Three-Year Performance - Over the past three years, the average return for "Hong Kong" equity funds was only 13.13%, with only 53 funds exceeding a 50% return [4] - The best-performing fund over three years was Qianhai Kaiyuan Hong Kong-Shenzhen Enjoy Life with a return of 156.25% [6] Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market in 2025 benefited from ample liquidity and continuous capital inflow, supported by favorable policies and innovation [7] - Analysts suggest a "barbell strategy" for 2026, focusing on high-dividend sectors for stability and growth sectors like technology and new energy for excess returns [7]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are rising significantly due to the resonance of macro and fundamental expectations. The macro - environment shows strong economic data in the US and continuous release of favorable policies in China. Fundamentally, short - term domestic spot drivers are weakening, but overseas drivers remain strong. Long - term fundamentals still support copper prices [3][7]. - It is recommended to use a long - position trading model as multiple logics drive the price to remain firm. There are also opportunities in spread trading such as term positive spreads and internal - external reverse spreads [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: The volatility of LME, SHFE, and INE copper has expanded. The LME copper price volatility is around 14%, and the SHFE copper volatility is about 18%, showing a significant rebound compared to the previous week [12][13]. - **Term Spread**: The term structure of SHFE copper has strengthened marginally, and the LME copper spot premium has expanded. The COMEX copper near - end C - structure has also widened [14][16]. - **Position**: The LME copper position has decreased, while the positions of SHFE and INE copper have increased. The SHFE copper position has increased by 22,800 lots to 654,700 lots [17]. - **Fund and Industry Position**: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has decreased, and the net long position of CFTC non - commercial has increased [23]. - **Spot Premium**: The domestic copper spot premium has weakened, while the Yangshan Port copper premium has rebounded. The US copper premium remains at a high level, and the Rotterdam and Southeast Asian copper premiums are stable or rising [27][29]. - **Inventory**: The global total copper inventory has increased, with a significant increase in domestic social inventory. The bonded area inventory has decreased, the COMEX inventory has increased, and the LME copper inventory has decreased [30][34]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio fluctuates, and the SHFE copper position - to - inventory ratio is at a historically low level [35]. 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrate**: Imports have increased year - on - year, and the processing fee remains weak. The port inventory has decreased, and the smelting loss has narrowed [38][40]. - **Recycled Copper**: Imports and domestic production have increased year - on - year. The scrap - refined copper price difference has widened, and the import loss has turned into profit [41][46]. - **Blister Copper**: Imports have increased month - on - month, and the processing fee has rebounded [49]. - **Refined Copper**: Production has increased year - on - year, imports have decreased, and the loss of copper spot imports has expanded [52]. 3.3 Demand End - **开工率**: The operating rate of copper product enterprises rebounded in November, but the operating rates of copper tubes and copper strips and foils are at historically low levels. The operating rate of wire and cable decreased marginally in the week of December 25 [57]. - **Profit**: The copper rod processing fee is at a historically low level, while the copper tube processing fee has rebounded. The copper strip and lithium - ion copper foil processing fees are stable at a low level [60][62]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. The raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises is at a neutral - to - low level, and that of copper tube enterprises is at a historically low level [63]. - **Finished Product Inventory**: The finished product inventory of copper rod enterprises has rebounded, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable has increased. The finished product inventory of copper tube enterprises is at a relatively low level [66]. 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: The apparent copper consumption is good, and power grid investment remains an important support. The actual copper consumption from January to October increased by 8.36% year - on - year, and the apparent consumption increased by 7.00% year - on - year. The power grid investment growth rate has slowed down [71][73]. - **Sector - Specific Consumption**: Air - conditioner production decreased in November, with a year - on - year decline of 35.70%. New - energy vehicle production is at a historically high level, with a year - on - year increase of 20.05% in November [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength in copper prices is gradually emerging. The lack of resonance logic may limit the upside space for prices. However, the long - term supply shortage logic still holds, and the long - term consumption recovery expectation is strong. Short - term adjustments in copper prices will provide good entry points for long - term buying. [7] - It is recommended to adopt the main trading mode of buying on dips. In terms of spread trading, the spread between COMEX and LME is weakening, the positive arbitrage opportunity between LME and SHFE is weakening, but the domestic Contango structure is obvious, and risk - free arbitrage opportunities can be concerned. At the same time, there is a profit margin for current spot exports, and internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities can be concerned. [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: SHFE and INE copper volatility expanded, while LME and COMEX copper volatility declined. LME copper price volatility was around 13%, down from the previous week; SHFE copper volatility was around 16%, with a relatively large increase from the previous week. [11] - **Term Spread**: The term structure of SHFE copper weakened, and the LME copper spot premium declined. The SHFE 01 - 02 spread on December 19 was - 180 yuan/ton, weaker than - 90 yuan/ton on December 12; the LME 0 - 3 premium on December 19 was 4.73 US dollars/ton, lower than the premium of 20.69 US dollars/ton on December 12; the COMEX near - end C structure narrowed. [17] - **Position**: LME, SHFE, and INE copper positions decreased. Among them, SHFE copper positions decreased by 15,000 lots to 631,900 lots. [19] - **Fund and Industry Position**: LME commercial short net positions decreased from 83,100 lots on December 5 to 78,600 lots on December 12; CFTC non - commercial long net positions increased from 53,400 lots on December 2 to 62,500 lots on December 9. [25] - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper spot premium and discount weakened, and the Yangshan Port copper premium rebounded. The domestic copper spot discount dropped from a discount of 20 yuan/ton on December 12 to a discount of 160 yuan/ton on December 19; the Yangshan Port copper premium rose from 41 US dollars/ton on December 12 to 43 US dollars/ton on December 19. [30] - **Inventory**: The global total copper inventory increased from 803,400 tons on December 11 to 816,600 tons on December 18. The domestic social inventory increased from 163,000 tons on December 11 to 165,800 tons on December 18; the bonded area inventory increased from 75,500 tons on December 11 to 76,600 tons on December 18; the COMEX inventory increased from 450,600 short tons on December 12 to 466,200 short tons on December 19; the LME copper inventory decreased from 165,900 tons on December 12 to 160,400 tons on December 19. [31][36] - **Position - Inventory Ratio**: The LME copper position - inventory ratio fluctuated, and the SHFE copper position - inventory ratio was at a low level in the same period of history, indicating a lack of driving logic in overseas spot markets. [37] 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrate**: Copper concentrate imports increased year - on - year, and processing fees remained weak. In November 2025, China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates were 2.5262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 12.55%. The port inventory of copper concentrates increased from 664,000 tons on December 12 to 680,000 tons on December 19. The processing fees of copper concentrates remained weak, and the smelting loss expanded from 2,084 yuan/ton on December 12 to 2,110 yuan/ton on December 19. [42] - **Recycled Copper**: Recycled copper imports increased year - on - year, and domestic production increased significantly year - on - year. In November, recycled copper imports were 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.94%; in September, domestic recycled copper production was 97,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.85%. The refined - scrap spread of recycled copper expanded and was higher than the break - even point; the import loss of recycled copper narrowed. [43][48] - **Blister Copper**: Blister copper imports increased month - on - month, and processing fees rebounded. In October, blister copper imports were 55,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.18%. In November, blister copper processing fees rebounded, with the southern processing fee at 1,250 yuan/ton and the import processing fee at 95 US dollars/ton. [52] - **Refined Copper**: Refined copper production increased year - on - year, imports decreased, and the import loss of copper spot expanded. In November, the production of refined copper was 1.1031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.75%, and the cumulative production from January to November was 12.2545 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.76%. It is expected that the production in December will be 1.0955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.69%. In November, refined copper imports were 271,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.67%. In November, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 430,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.87%. The import loss of copper spot expanded from a loss of 1,260.23 yuan/ton on December 12 to a loss of 1,304.76 yuan/ton on December 19. [54] 3.3 Demand End - **Operating Rate**: In November, the operating rates of copper product enterprises rebounded month - on - month, but were at a low level in the same period of history. The operating rates of copper tubes and copper plates, strips, and foils rebounded, but were at a low level in the same period of history. In the week of December 18, the operating rate of wire and cable decreased marginally. [59] - **Profit**: The processing fees of copper rods were at a low level in the same period of history, and the processing fees of copper tubes rebounded. As of December 19, the processing fees of copper rods for the power industry in East China were 275 yuan/ton, lower than 385 yuan/ton on December 12. On December 19, the 10 - day moving average of the processing fees of R410A - dedicated copper tubes was 5,205 yuan/ton, higher than 5,107 yuan/ton on December 12. The processing fees of copper plates and strips and lithium - ion copper foils remained stable at a low level. [64] - **Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remained at a low level. In November, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a slightly lower - than - neutral level in the same period of history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level in the same period of history; the weekly raw material inventory of wire and cable remained at a low level. [65] - **Finished Product Inventory**: The finished product inventory of copper rods rebounded, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable decreased slightly. In November, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a high level in the same period of history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a relatively low level in the same period of history; the weekly finished product inventory of wire and cable decreased slightly. [68] 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: The domestic actual copper consumption performed well. From January to October, the cumulative consumption was 13.2983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.36%; from January to October, the apparent consumption was 13.4169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.00%. Power grid investment, home appliances, and new energy industries were important supports for copper consumption. The growth rate of power grid investment slowed down. From January to October, the cumulative power grid investment was 482.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, but it was at a relatively high level in history. [74] - **Air - Conditioner and New Energy Vehicle Production**: In October, the domestic air - conditioner production was 10.1326 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 27.92%; in October, the domestic new energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20.05%. [76]

Core Viewpoint - Xiamen Youxun Chip Co., Ltd. has successfully listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with a significant opening day increase of 364.58% from an initial price of 51.66 yuan per share, indicating strong market interest and confidence in the company's growth potential in the optical communication chip sector [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Youxun Chip specializes in the research, design, and sales of optical communication chips, recognized as a "national champion" in China's optical communication industry [1] - The company has developed a comprehensive competitive framework in technology research and development, product layout, supply chain management, product quality control, and customer service [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Financial Performance - The demand for optical communication chips is experiencing explosive growth due to new infrastructure needs such as 5G-A, F5G, and AI computing centers [1] - Revenue is projected to grow from 339 million yuan in 2022 to 411 million yuan in 2024, with 238 million yuan already achieved in the first half of 2025, indicating steady operational expansion [1] Group 3: Technological Capabilities - Youxun Chip has mastered deep sub-micron CMOS and Ge-Si Bi-CMOS dual-process technology, enabling design capabilities for optical communication chips ranging from single-channel 155 Mbps to multi-channel 800 Gbps [2] - The company offers customized chip solutions based on a deep understanding of core products such as laser driver chips, transimpedance amplifier chips, and clock data recovery chips [2] Group 4: Market Position and Future Plans - Youxun Chip's market share in the 10 Gbps and below segment is ranked first in China and second globally, with rapid growth in sales of products above 25 Gbps [2] - The company plans to focus on three high-growth areas: telecom, data centers, and end-user devices, aiming to transition from a "follower" to a "leader" in the global optical communication chip industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - Xiamen Youxun Chip Co., Ltd. (688807.SH) has officially listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board, marking a significant step in China's optical communication core device sector [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Youxun Chip focuses on the research, design, and sales of optical communication chips and is recognized as a "national champion enterprise" in China's optical communication field [1] - The company has achieved a stock price increase of 355% since its IPO, with an issuance price of 51.66 yuan per share and a price-to-earnings ratio of 60.27 [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Growth - The demand for optical communication chips is experiencing explosive growth due to new infrastructure needs such as 5G-A, F5G, and AI computing centers [1] - Youxun Chip's revenue has grown from 339 million yuan in 2022 to 411 million yuan in 2024, with a revenue of 238 million yuan achieved in the first half of 2025, indicating steady business expansion [1] Group 3: Technological Capabilities - The company has developed deep sub-micron CMOS and Ge-Si Bi-CMOS dual-process technology, enabling it to design ultra-high-speed optical communication chips ranging from single-channel 155 Mbps to multi-channel 800 Gbps [2] - Youxun Chip offers customized solutions based on its deep understanding of core optical communication chip products, including laser driver chips, transimpedance amplifier chips, and more [2] Group 4: Market Position and Future Prospects - Youxun Chip's customer base includes major global optical module manufacturers, with increasing penetration of domestic chips in the high-end market [3] - The company holds the leading market share in China and the second position globally for products with speeds of 10 Gbps and below, with rapid growth in sales of products with speeds of 25 Gbps and above [3] - The IPO raised 1.033 billion yuan, which will be invested in the development and industrialization of next-generation access network and high-speed data center chips, as well as projects for automotive chips and 800G optical communication chips [3]

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference indicates a moderate approach to economic stabilization rather than strong stimulus, focusing on maintaining growth levels and alleviating deflationary pressures without significant policy shifts [3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit, including both explicit and implicit components, is set to remain at levels similar to 2025, with an emphasis on front-loading expenditures, particularly in infrastructure such as urban renewal and green transformation projects [4]. - There is potential for an additional fiscal space equivalent to 0.5% of GDP if conditions in real estate, prices, and employment improve in the first half of the year [5]. Monetary Policy - The actual space for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is limited, with a focus on structural tools and quasi-fiscal measures, suggesting a possible reduction of 10-20 basis points throughout the year [5]. Real Estate Policy - Support measures for real estate, such as subsidizing mortgage rates, may not materialize until after the national two sessions, with details expected in the second quarter of 2026 [5]. - A broad and sustained subsidy for mortgage rates could stabilize market expectations and break the negative feedback loop of falling housing prices and credit contraction [6][9]. Consumption Policy - The continuation of the national subsidy for replacing old with new products is expected, with adjustments in scale and coverage, but there is uncertainty about significant support for service sector consumption [6]. - Direct subsidies for consumer spending, particularly in the service sector, may take longer to implement, potentially not appearing until the second half of the year [6]. Export Outlook - Despite concerns about export reliance, China's share of global exports is projected to increase from 15% to 16-17% over the next five years, with growth rates expected to outpace global trade growth [7]. - The shift towards "de-China-ization" is seen as a trade chain extension rather than a reduction in China's market share, with Chinese enterprises maintaining a competitive edge in high-value sectors [7][8]. Talent and Innovation - China produces approximately 11 million university graduates annually, with a significant portion in engineering and technology fields, contributing to its competitive advantage in key sectors [8]. - The global supply chain is evolving towards multi-polarity but remains reliant on Chinese enterprises, indicating a robust position for China in the global market [8]. Economic Transition - There is a call for a shift towards consumption-driven growth in 2026, emphasizing social security improvements and support for farmers and migrant workers to enhance consumer capacity [8]. - A broader focus on supporting service sector consumption through subsidies and vouchers is recommended to stimulate economic activity [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company has established a technological layout for PCB used in optical modules, which are essential components for AI computing centers and large data centers, indicating a rapidly growing market demand [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The company will continue to increase its R&D investment in the optical module sector [1] - Current R&D and business expansion efforts are focused on growth sectors such as automotive electronics, AI servers, humanoid robots, energy storage, and low-altitude flight [1] - The company is advancing the "Chip Innovation and Intelligence Integration" project, which involves the industrialization of high-end embedded technology for third-generation wide bandgap semiconductor SiC/GaN chip embedded packaging circuit boards [1]