10 月我国制造业 PMI 为 49.0%；资金面持续宽松，债市延续暖势 【内容摘要】10 月 31 日，资金面持续宽松；债市延续暖势；转债市场主要指数集体收涨，转 债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【习近平出席亚太经合组织第三十二次领导人非正式会议并发表重要讲话】当地时间 10 月 31 日上午，亚太经合组织第三十二次领导人非正式会议第一阶段会议在韩国庆州和白会议中心 举行。国家主席习近平出席会议并发表题为《共建普惠包容的开放型亚太经济》的重要讲话。 习近平在讲话中指出，亚太经合组织成立 30 多年来，引领亚太地区走在全球开放发展前列， 助力亚太成为全球经济最具活力的地区。当前，世界百年变局加速演进，亚太地区发展面临的 不稳定不确定因素增多。越是风高浪急，越要同舟共济。各方要坚守亚太经合组织促进经济增 长、增进人民福祉的初衷，坚持在开放发展中分享机遇、实现共赢，推进普惠包容的经济全球 化，构建亚太共同体。 【李强主持召开国常会，研究深化重点领域改革扩大制度型开放工作】国务院总理李强 10 月 31 日主持召开国务院常务会议 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "Debt Management Division" by the Ministry of Finance aims to enhance the management and monitoring of government debt, prevent hidden debt risks, and ensure sustainable fiscal development over the next five years [1][4]. Group 1: Establishment of Debt Management Division - The Ministry of Finance has officially set up the "Debt Management Division" to oversee domestic debt management policies and strengthen monitoring [1][2]. - The division's responsibilities include formulating and executing government debt management policies, managing the issuance and repayment of government bonds, and monitoring hidden debt risks [2][4]. Group 2: Leadership and Structure - The division is led by Director Li Dawei, who previously served as the Director of the Government Debt Research and Evaluation Center [3][4]. - The division comprises six departments focusing on various aspects of debt management, including central and local government debt [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy for the Next Five Years - The Minister of Finance, Lan Fo'an, emphasized the importance of preventing and resolving local government debt risks while promoting sustainable fiscal development [4][5]. - A strict policy against the creation of new hidden debts will be enforced, and a unified long-term regulatory system for local government debt will be established [4][5]. Group 4: Focus Areas for Fiscal Spending - Future fiscal spending will prioritize areas such as boosting domestic demand, supporting technological self-reliance, and enhancing public welfare [6]. - The government aims to optimize fiscal expenditure structures and focus resources on high-impact areas while minimizing direct intervention in microeconomic activities [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Debt Management Department within the Ministry of Finance aims to enhance government debt management mechanisms, ensuring alignment with high-quality development and risk mitigation in local government debt [4][5]. Group 1: Organizational Structure - The Debt Management Department is now listed as a department of the Ministry of Finance, with Li Dawei as the director and Qu Fuguo and Zhao Zeyong as deputy directors [1][6]. - The department consists of six divisions: Comprehensive Division, Central Debt Division, Local Debt Division I, Local Debt Division II, Issuance and Payment Division, and Monitoring Management Division [1]. Group 2: Responsibilities and Goals - The main responsibilities of the Debt Management Department include formulating and implementing domestic debt management policies, managing both central and local government debts, and enhancing monitoring to prevent hidden debt risks [4][5]. - The goal is to establish a long-term debt management mechanism that aligns with high-quality development, which is essential for mitigating local government debt risks and achieving the objectives of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5]. Group 3: Current Debt Situation - As of the end of 2024, China's total government debt is projected to reach 92.6 trillion yuan, comprising 34.6 trillion yuan in national debt, 47.5 trillion yuan in local government legal debt, and 10.5 trillion yuan in local government hidden debt, resulting in a government debt ratio of 68.7% [5]. - The overall debt ratio is considered reasonable, with manageable risks, as it corresponds to a significant amount of quality assets [5]. Group 4: Policy Implementation - Li Dawei announced that the Ministry of Finance will continue to allocate new local government debt limits for 2026 in advance to support key projects and ensure economic recovery [7]. - A total of 500 billion yuan will be allocated from the existing local government debt limits to enhance local financial capacity and support project construction in economically significant provinces [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in driving economic growth and structural optimization during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, highlighting the need for effective responses to complex changes in the development environment [2]. Group 1: Domestic Demand Expansion - The government aims to fully expand domestic demand and support the construction of a strong domestic market by increasing tax, social security, and transfer payments to boost residents' income and optimize income distribution [3]. - Policies such as fiscal subsidies and loan interest discounts will be utilized to cultivate new consumption growth points and create new consumption scenarios [3]. - The use of special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds will be optimized to encourage private capital participation in major project construction, thereby expanding effective investment [3]. Group 2: Technological Independence - The focus will be on supporting high-level technological self-reliance and accelerating the development of new productive forces by increasing investment in technology, particularly in basic and applied research [4]. - The government will enhance the efficiency of technology innovation investments and promote the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [4]. Group 3: Improving Livelihoods - The government will prioritize employment, support enterprises in maintaining and expanding jobs, and address employment issues for key groups [4]. - There will be efforts to improve education quality, strengthen social security networks, and enhance public health services [4]. Group 4: Urban-Rural Integration - The strategy includes promoting urban-rural integration and expanding modernization development space through diverse investment mechanisms and comprehensive rural revitalization [5]. - Support will be provided for high-standard farmland construction and the implementation of compensation mechanisms for grain production and sales [5]. Group 5: Fiscal Management and Reform - The government will deepen reforms and strengthen supervision to enhance fiscal governance effectiveness, including optimizing tax structures and improving the fiscal relationship between central and local governments [5]. - A focus will be placed on preventing and resolving local government debt risks, with strict measures against the creation of new hidden debts [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in driving economic growth and structural optimization during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, highlighting the need for effective responses to complex changes in the development environment [1] Group 1: Expansion of Domestic Demand - The government aims to fully expand domestic demand and support the construction of a strong domestic market by increasing residents' income and optimizing income distribution [2] - Policies such as fiscal subsidies and loan interest discounts will be utilized to cultivate new consumption growth points and create new consumption scenarios [2] - The use of special bonds and long-term special government bonds will be optimized to encourage private capital participation in major project construction [2] Group 2: Technological Independence and Innovation - The focus is on supporting high-level technological self-reliance and accelerating the development of new productive forces by increasing investment in technology [3] - The government will enhance the allocation and management of central fiscal science and technology funds to improve the effectiveness of innovation investments [3] - Traditional industries will be optimized while new and future industries are cultivated to promote deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [3] Group 3: Improvement of People's Livelihood - The government prioritizes employment and supports enterprises in stabilizing and expanding jobs, addressing employment issues for key groups [4] - There will be an emphasis on enhancing social security networks and improving public health service systems [4] - Policies will be implemented to optimize the supply of elderly care and childcare services, contributing to overall social welfare [4] Group 4: Urban-Rural Integration and Regional Development - The government will promote urban-rural integration and expand modernization development space by supporting rural revitalization and enhancing agricultural productivity [5] - Investment in rural infrastructure and public services will be prioritized to create livable and workable rural areas [5] - The strategy includes implementing regional coordinated development to optimize economic development space [5] Group 5: Fiscal Management and Debt Risk Prevention - The government aims to enhance fiscal governance effectiveness through reforms and strengthened supervision [6] - A focus on optimizing the tax structure and improving the fiscal relationship between central and local governments will be pursued [6] - Measures will be taken to prevent and resolve local government debt risks, including strict regulations against the creation of new hidden debts [6]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the role of fiscal policy as a foundation for national governance, highlighting its importance in stabilizing growth, boosting momentum, and mitigating risks[9] - The plan explicitly states the need for a more proactive fiscal policy to address short-term risks and maintain economic stability, contrasting with previous plans that focused more on long-term reforms[10] - There is a stronger focus on social welfare and public spending, with an emphasis on increasing government investment in basic livelihoods and enhancing consumer capacity[11] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Transformations - The plan calls for a shift from focusing on deficit rates to increasing expenditure growth, breaking the 3% deficit rate constraint to enhance counter-cyclical fiscal policy[17] - It advocates for expanding spending rather than merely reducing taxes, aiming to directly stimulate total demand and increase household and enterprise income[17] - The policy structure should balance supply and demand, with a focus on both investment and consumption, particularly in social welfare and public services[18] Group 3: Tax System and Sustainability - The plan emphasizes the need to stabilize the macro tax burden and enhance fiscal sustainability, avoiding a decline in the ratio of fiscal revenue to GDP[20] - It suggests structural adjustments to existing tax policies to improve efficiency and precision, particularly in key sectors like technology and small enterprises[20] - The plan aims to increase local fiscal autonomy by adjusting revenue-sharing mechanisms and enhancing local tax sources[22] Group 4: Debt Management - The plan highlights the necessity of establishing a long-term mechanism for government debt management to mitigate local government debt risks[25] - It proposes the creation of a comprehensive monitoring system for local government debt and a dynamic early warning system for debt risks[26] - The plan encourages a shift from debt-driven growth to a model focused on technology and consumption, promoting sustainable economic development[27]

Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of the HPV vaccine in the national immunization program starting November 10, 2025, represents a significant step in public health policy, aiming to enhance preventive healthcare for young girls and reduce the burden of cervical cancer in China [2][3]. Summary by Sections National Immunization Program - The HPV vaccine will be included in the national immunization program for the first time since 2007, expanding the target demographic from children under 6 to adolescents [2]. - This decision aligns with the "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes the integration of investments in both material and human resources [2]. Cervical Cancer Burden - Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer among women in China, with increasing incidence rates and a trend towards younger patients [2]. - Vaccination against HPV is identified as the most effective and economical method for preventing cervical cancer [2]. Vaccine Coverage and Accessibility - Current HPV vaccination coverage in China is low due to factors such as lack of awareness, high vaccine prices, and limited availability [3]. - Pilot programs for free HPV vaccination have shown high acceptance rates, indicating that low coverage is more related to investment and promotion rather than public awareness [3]. Government Procurement and Cost - The government plans to procure 15.4465 million doses of the bivalent HPV vaccine at a budget of approximately 424.78 million yuan, resulting in an estimated procurement price of 27.5 yuan per dose [3]. - This reflects the government's strong bargaining power in vaccine procurement [3]. Economic and Social Impact - The HPV vaccination initiative is seen as a proactive fiscal policy that invests in public health, which can lead to significant long-term benefits for society [3][4]. - By reducing healthcare costs associated with cervical cancer, the program aims to improve the financial stability of families and the overall economic structure of society [4]. Addressing Demand Issues - The vaccination program is expected to enhance effective demand in the economy, addressing the current issue of insufficient domestic demand [4][5]. - The lack of effective demand is attributed to residents' low sense of security regarding social welfare systems, leading to higher savings rates [4]. Future Directions - To effectively alleviate domestic demand issues, there is a need for substantial investment in public welfare systems, including social security and healthcare [5][6]. - The HPV vaccination program is viewed as a practical step towards filling gaps in social welfare and enhancing public health, ultimately contributing to a more robust domestic economy [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent proposal by the Central Committee emphasizes the role of proactive fiscal policy in enhancing fiscal sustainability, indicating that fiscal measures will continue to support economic growth, employment, structural optimization, and improving people's livelihoods over the next five years [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Direction - China will maintain a proactive fiscal policy approach, which has been effective since the 2008 financial crisis, while also addressing the need for enhanced fiscal sustainability [2][3]. - The fiscal deficit rate has increased from 2.7% to 3.8% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with expectations to rise to 4% by 2025 [2]. Revenue and Expenditure Challenges - The growth of fiscal revenue faces constraints, with traditional key tax sectors slowing down, while emerging industries and the digital economy grow rapidly but contribute less to tax revenue [2]. - There is a persistent demand for fiscal expenditure in key areas such as consumption promotion, investment expansion, and employment stabilization, leading to increased pressure on fiscal balance [2]. Tax Policy Optimization - The proposal calls for the optimization of tax incentives and maintaining a reasonable macro tax burden, with tax revenue as a primary source of fiscal income [4][5]. - The tax revenue as a percentage of GDP is projected to be below 13% in 2024, a decrease of about 2 percentage points from 2021, indicating a need to reverse the low tax revenue situation [4]. Central and Local Fiscal Responsibilities - The proposal suggests enhancing central fiscal responsibilities while increasing local fiscal capabilities, addressing the imbalance in fiscal responsibilities between central and local governments [5][6]. - There is a need to optimize the sharing of tax revenues, particularly in shared taxes like corporate and personal income taxes, to alleviate local fiscal pressures [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the shift in fiscal policy focus for the next five years towards actively utilizing fiscal policies to support economic stability and growth, in light of changing domestic and international conditions [4][5]. Fiscal Policy Focus - The "15th Five-Year Plan" highlights the importance of active fiscal policies, contrasting with the previous "14th Five-Year Plan" which focused on establishing a modern fiscal and tax system [3][4]. - The new fiscal strategy aims to enhance fiscal sustainability while addressing risks and uncertainties in the economic environment [4][5]. Key Measures - The Ministry of Finance outlines six key areas for implementing active fiscal policies: expanding domestic demand, supporting technological self-reliance, improving living standards, promoting urban-rural integration, deepening fiscal and tax reforms, and mitigating local debt risks [5][6]. - Specific actions include increasing tax and social security adjustments to boost household income and consumption, and enhancing investment in key technological areas [5][6]. Economic Context - The article notes that the changing focus of fiscal policy is a response to complex domestic and international challenges, including geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [4][5]. - The Ministry of Finance stresses the need for a balanced approach to fiscal governance, ensuring effective market functioning while minimizing direct government intervention in microeconomic activities [5][6].

Core Insights - The focus of fiscal policy in the next five years will shift towards effectively leveraging proactive fiscal policies to support China's modernization and national rejuvenation efforts [1][2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policies in response to complex domestic and international challenges, highlighting the need to mitigate risks and ensure stable economic performance [2] Fiscal Policy Focus - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines a shift from establishing a modern fiscal and tax system to enhancing the role of proactive fiscal policies and ensuring fiscal sustainability [1][3] - The fiscal work will prioritize six key areas: expanding domestic demand, supporting technological self-reliance, improving livelihoods, promoting urban-rural integration, deepening fiscal and tax reforms, and addressing local debt risks [3] Economic Environment - The changing focus of fiscal policy is directly related to evolving domestic and international conditions, with increased emphasis on risk and uncertainty compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The external environment is characterized by instability, intensified great power competition, and rising protectionism, while the domestic economy remains resilient with significant potential for growth [2] Implementation Strategies - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance fiscal policy effectiveness by increasing tax, social security, and transfer payments to boost household income and consumption [3] - There will be a focus on scientific management of fiscal policies, balancing market efficiency with government intervention, and ensuring that fiscal resources are allocated to areas with high social benefits [3][4] Debt Management - The fiscal strategy will include careful management of deficits, debts, and expenditures to ensure fiscal sustainability and address local debt risks effectively [5]