另据央视新闻，当地时间7月31日，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，确定了对多个国家和地区征收的"对等 关税"税率，具体税率从10%到41%不等。"对等关税"的生效日期也被推迟至8月7日，而非此前确定的8 月1日。 上周五收盘时，美国三大指数皆墨，以绩优股为主的道琼斯30种工业股平均指数跌554点，即1.26%， 具有代表性的标准普尔500指数下泻101.38点，即1.60%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数跌472.32点，即 2.24%；美元指数以98.47点报收，即跌1.28%；美国十年期国债收益率以4.219报收，即跌3.23%；12月 份黄金期货上涨51美元，即涨1.52%。 过去一周，尽管有META、微软和苹果等企业的骄人业绩加持（亚马逊上一季度业绩超过预期，但本季 度业绩预测值低于市场预期），市场沉浸在英伟达市值过4万亿美元的喜悦之中，美国三大指数却出现 大幅下跌，其中道琼斯30种工业股平均指数跌2.92%，标准普尔500指数下跌2.36%，纳斯达克指数跌 2.17%。这充分说明，美国股票价格已相当昂贵，投资者开始担心市场随时会逆转。有关数据显示，最 近一波接一波的上涨行情是由零售投资者推动的，机构投资者倒是 ...

赞迪警告，美国不仅劳动力市场正在走弱，而且消费者支出持平，建筑业和制造业萎缩。他还认为，在 通胀率仍高于2%目标的情况下，美联储将很难重振经济的增长。 当地时间8月3日，评级机构穆迪的首席经济学家马克·赞迪连发4条推文警告，过去一周的各项指标均显 示美国经济正处于衰退边缘。 就业数据经修正 增量被"抹了整" 美国劳工部8月1日发布经济数据显示，7月美国非农业部门新增就业岗位7.3万，低于市场预期。同时， 美国5月和6月非农业部门新增就业岗位数量从此前公布的14.4万和14.7万分别大幅下调至1.9万和1.4万， 共计减少25.8万个就业岗位。此外，企业招聘率降至七个月以来的最低点，反映出就业市场活力持续减 弱，企业需求的实质性疲软。 同一天，马克·赞迪发文称："任何认为经济数据歪曲了经济实际表现的观点都是大错特错。当经济处于 拐点，例如衰退时期，数据总是会经历大幅修正。" 赞迪还"阴阳"了一把美国政府的大裁员，称尤其考虑到"政府效率部（DOGE）"的一通折腾，各个政府 部门向劳工统计局报告的数据都是延迟的。随着就业情况变得不稳定，数据自然会经历大幅修正。今年 年初，马斯克在特朗普支持下创立"政府效率部"，但随 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. government's trade policies, particularly high tariffs, are undermining the economy's competitiveness and could lead to a significant economic downturn [2][5][12]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has surged from 2% to approximately 16%, the highest level since the 1930s, which is expected to increase production costs and reduce global competitiveness [5]. - High tariffs have resulted in increased customs revenue for the U.S., but they also threaten to decrease exports and squeeze the incomes of American workers [5][8]. - The potential positive impact of tariffs on GDP is minimal, estimated at only 0.7%, especially when considering retaliatory measures from trade partners [8]. Group 2: Confidence in the Dollar - There is a growing risk of diminishing confidence in the U.S. dollar, which has been the cornerstone of the U.S. economic dominance, as major credit rating agencies have downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating since 2011 [5][6]. - The unpredictability of the White House's policies is causing increasing tension in financial markets, which could lead to a historic decline in investor confidence in U.S. assets [6]. Group 3: Labor Market and Economic Growth - Recent employment data indicates a significant downturn, with the unemployment rate at 4.2% and non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs in July, below market expectations [12]. - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a stagnation in labor force growth and a decrease in labor participation rates, contributing to economic slowdown [13]. - Tariffs are eroding corporate profits and household purchasing power, while a reduction in immigration limits overall economic growth potential [13].

Core Insights - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data for July, initially perceived as negative, reveals a more complex economic landscape upon deeper analysis [1] - The report has prompted a reassessment of whether the U.S. economy is undergoing a healthy adjustment post-pandemic or signaling a potential recession [1] Employment Trends - A significant factor in the slowdown of employment data is the reduction of jobs in federal, state, and local government sectors, accounting for 40% of the decline in job creation over the past six months [2] - The private sector also shows a notable slowdown in job creation, particularly in June, but the discussion around the employment report would be less tense if government hiring had not decreased [2] - Employment growth in cyclical industries, which are sensitive to economic cycles, has nearly come to a halt, indicating a concerning trend that has persisted since early this year [2] Economic Outlook - Investors are faced with the question of whether the U.S. economy is experiencing a cyclical slowdown or a normalization after an irrational post-pandemic boom [3] - The absolute unemployment rate remains low, comparable to periods of economic prosperity in the late 1990s and mid-2000s, suggesting a potential healthy adjustment [3] - However, the direction of the unemployment rate raises concerns, as historical patterns indicate that a rapid increase in unemployment often leads to prolonged downturns [3] Corporate Profitability - Corporate profitability is a key reference point for assessing economic health, with current S&P 500 earnings growth at 10%, supporting the notion of a "normalization" scenario [3] - There is significant industry divergence in profitability, with technology and financial sectors experiencing rapid growth, while consumer goods and materials sectors show a marked slowdown [4] - This divergence aligns with the weak employment data in cyclical industries, indicating that the U.S. economy is not experiencing broad-based prosperity but rather a structural imbalance [4]

其他报告也暗藏警告信号。二季度GDP反弹幅度超预期，但剔除对外贸易影响、聚焦国内最终需求的指 标显示增长放缓。 摘要在周一（8月4日）的亚洲市场尾盘时段，现货黄金表现亮眼。回溯至上周五收盘时，其价格大幅攀 升了74.34美元，涨幅高达2.26%，最终定格于3363.04美元/盎司。经历前一交易日的暴涨行情后，现货 黄金于当前基本维持稳定态势，金价徘徊在3362美元/盎司左右。 在周一（8月4日）的亚洲市场尾盘时段，现货黄金表现亮眼。回溯至上周五收盘时，其价格大幅攀升了 74.34美元，涨幅高达2.26%，最终定格于3363.04美元/盎司。经历前一交易日的暴涨行情后，现货黄金 于当前基本维持稳定态势，金价徘徊在3362美元/盎司左右。就本交易日而言，市场参与者需重点关注 美国6月工厂订单月率数据，同时持续密切留意国际贸易局势以及地缘政治局势的相关动态消息。 【要闻速递】 美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔上周日在美国哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）《面向全国》节目中表示，上周 对众多国家加征的关税可能会维持现状，而不会作为持续谈判的一部分被削减。 上周美元走弱，因数据显示7月非农就业人数仅增加7.3万人，6月数据下修为增加 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant downturn in the U.S. labor market, with July's non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, the lowest in nine months, and substantially below the market expectation of 104,000 [1][3] - The revisions for May and June show a combined loss of 258,000 jobs, indicating a more severe decline than initially reported [1][3] - The unemployment rate increased slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%, but this is misleading as it reflects a decrease in labor force participation rather than an increase in joblessness [3][6] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings rose from 3.7% to 3.9% year-over-year, suggesting that those still employed are earning more, which complicates inflation control for the Federal Reserve [5][8] - The government sector has been a significant contributor to job losses, with a reduction of 12,000 federal jobs in July and a total of 84,000 since January [5][6] - Most industries, except for healthcare, are stagnant, indicating a lack of expansion and a cautious approach from employers [6][8] Group 3 - There is a notable increase in the number of individuals who want to work but are not actively seeking employment, totaling 6.2 million in July, which reflects a growing sense of disengagement from the labor market [6][8] - The current labor market data is crucial as it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, with potential implications for interest rate adjustments [8] - The article suggests that the non-farm payroll report could serve as a pivotal point for the Federal Reserve's policy direction, raising questions about whether to cut rates or maintain the current stance [8]

Group 1 - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US is likely to persist due to a weak labor market, with disappointing non-farm employment data reinforcing market predictions for a rate cut in September [1] - Continuous low non-farm employment numbers below 50,000 for six months could signal an economic recession, leading to increased market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - Barclays predicts the European Central Bank will cut rates in December instead of September, influenced by anticipated weak economic activity in the second half of the year [2] Group 2 - Concerns over the independence and reliability of official economic data have intensified following President Trump's claims of data manipulation and the dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau director [3][4] - The Korea Export-Import Bank forecasts a decline in South Korea's export value in Q3 2025 due to the impact of tariffs, projecting exports to reach approximately $167 billion, a year-on-year decrease of about 3% [3] - Analysts from Danske Bank expect the Bank of England to announce a rate cut in the upcoming decision, which may exert downward pressure on the British pound [4]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reaffirms its oil price forecast, predicting an average price of $64 per barrel for Brent crude in Q4 2025 and $56 per barrel in 2026, but notes increased risks to its baseline forecast due to recent developments [1] - The report highlights that sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil supply are intensifying, posing upward risks to price forecasts, especially as idle capacity is recovering faster than expected [1] - There are downward risks to the average annual demand growth forecast of 800,000 barrels per day for 2025-2026 due to increased U.S. tariffs and weak economic activity data [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, aiming to regain market share, but Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to maintain production quotas unchanged after September due to anticipated faster increases in OECD commercial inventories [1] - Analysts believe the risk of large-scale disruptions in Russian supply is limited, given the significant trading volume and price discounts to maintain demand, with major buyers like China and India showing continued interest [1] - Reports indicate that Indian state-owned refineries have stopped purchasing oil from Russia recently due to reduced discounts on Russian oil and warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump against buying Russian oil [1]

瑞讯 银行高级分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya说，如果美国非农就业人数连续六个月低于5万人，就会被视为 经济衰退的信号。因此，美国可能已经做到了一半。好消息是，对经济衰退的担忧加强了美联储降息的 预期；坏消息是，疲软的经济并不是特朗普承诺的一部分。降息不会神奇地拯救市场，把政府混乱的政 策的后果归咎于劳工统计局可能会损害美国经济数据的可信度。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The credibility of U.S. economic data may be undermined by blaming the Bureau of Labor Statistics for government policy failures, particularly as concerns about a recession grow due to low non-farm payroll numbers [1] Economic Indicators - If U.S. non-farm payroll numbers remain below 50,000 for six consecutive months, it will signal a recession [1] - Currently, the U.S. economy may be halfway to this threshold, raising concerns about economic performance [1] Federal Reserve Actions - Increased worries about a recession have heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - However, it is noted that rate cuts alone will not magically resolve market issues [1] Political Context - The weak economic performance contradicts promises made by the Trump administration regarding economic growth [1] - The ongoing government policy chaos is being attributed to external factors rather than internal mismanagement [1]