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前5个月全国期市成交量和成交额同比双增
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-06-11 18:17
Group 1 - In May, the national futures market saw a decline in both trading volume and trading value, with a total trading volume of 679 million contracts and a trading value of 54.73 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year decreases of 4.51% and 1.55% respectively [1] - From January to May, the cumulative trading volume reached 3.337 billion contracts and the cumulative trading value was 286.93 trillion yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 15.61% and 21.33% [1] - The trading performance varied across exchanges, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange reporting a trading volume of 197 million contracts and a trading value of 21.13 trillion yuan in May, reflecting a volume decrease of 1.59% but a value increase of 2.18% year-on-year [1][2] Group 2 - The top three futures by trading value included gold, silver, and alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, while the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange featured caustic soda, rapeseed oil, and PTA futures [2] - The trading volume leaders were rebar, alumina, and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange leading in glass, PTA, and soda ash futures [2] - The decline in trading activity in May was attributed to reduced volatility in major commodities and weaker demand, particularly in energy, chemicals, and construction materials [2][3] Group 3 - May is traditionally a low season for industrial and some agricultural products, leading to a decrease in hedging activities as enterprises adopted low inventory strategies [3] - Despite the drop in trading scale, the total open interest in the futures market increased by 16.62% at the end of May, with all exchanges except the China Financial Futures Exchange reporting growth [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's total open interest reached 11.26 million contracts, up 14.99% from the previous month [3] Group 4 - Major commodity prices are currently at relatively low levels, encouraging enterprises to engage more in futures hedging and related activities, which has led to an increase in open interest [4] - Improved market sentiment due to the release of macroeconomic policies and easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. has attracted more capital into the futures market [4] - The expectation of a rebound in commodity prices and a stable domestic stock market is likely to drive an increase in trading volume in June [4][5]
股指期货日报:股指反弹,静待中美谈判结果-20250611
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 12:36
股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年6月11日 王梦颖(Z0015429)、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 股指反弹,静待中美谈判结果 市场回顾 1. 美商务部长称谈判"进展顺利",标普纳指刷新日高,中概指数涨幅扩大。 2. 美国据称接近达成协议,部分豁免对墨钢铁关税,美国钢铁股盘后跳水,墨西哥比索一度转涨。 核心观点 美商务部长称谈判"进展顺利",今天股指有所反弹,回补昨天部分跌幅。目前海外不确定性风险较大,同 时最新经济数据显示内需偏弱问题仍存,分别从风险偏好以及盈利预期两方面对股指上行有所抑制,短期 内指数持续上行有较大阻力。不过基本面偏弱且关税影响仍将继续的情况下,市场利好政策托底预期有所 上升,市场底部支撑力量仍较为充足,重点关注6月18日至19日召开的陆家嘴论坛,将发布若干金融政 策。短期内建议观望为主,等待中美贸易谈判的结果。 策略推荐 持仓观望 股指日报期指市场观察 今日股指集体收涨,以沪深300指数为例,收盘上涨0.75%。从资金面来看,两市成交额回落1599亿元。 期指方面,IF放量上涨,其余品种均缩量上涨。 重要资讯 IH升贴水率 sour ...
瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20250611
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 08:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3400 points. The three major indices rose and then fell. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets significantly declined. Most industry sectors rose, with non-ferrous metals and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors strengthening significantly, while the medicine, biology, communication, and beauty care sectors declined against the market. - Domestically, in terms of the economic fundamentals, on the price front, in May, the domestic CPI changed from an increase to a decrease month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline remained the same as last month. The year-on-year decline of PPI further widened, and the CPI - PPI gap widened compared to last month, indicating that future prices still face certain pressure. On the trade front, affected by tariff policies, the scale of China's import and export trade further shrank in May. On the policy front, on June 10th (UK local time), the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism entered its second day, starting in the morning and continuing after lunch. The market expects further relaxation of trade relations. - Overall, although the signs of further relaxation of China-US trade relations are beneficial to the market in the short term, domestic deflation pressure still exists, and imports and exports are weak under the impact of tariffs. The economic fundamentals are relatively pressured, limiting the upward space of the market. The market is currently in a policy vacuum period, with limited incremental funds, making it difficult to support the significant strengthening of large-cap blue-chip stocks with large market values. Technology stocks mainly composed of small and medium-cap stocks are currently undervalued and are expected to make up for the increase in the short term. - In terms of strategy, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for unilateral trading, and for arbitrage, one can try to go long on IC/IM and short on IF/IH [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Contract Prices**: The prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM main and sub-main contracts generally rose. For example, the IF main contract (2506) was at 3878.8, up 34.4; the IH main contract (2506) was at 2682.4, up 21.0; the IC main contract (2506) was at 5761.2, up 42.8; and the IM main contract (2506) was at 6144.0, up 38.4 [2]. - **Futures Price Spreads**: The spreads between different futures contracts showed various changes. For example, the IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1196.4, up 15.4; the IC - IF current - month contract spread was 1882.4, up 5.2; the IM - IC current - month contract spread was 382.8, down 12.8 [2]. - **Futures Time - Spread**: The time - spreads between different quarters and the current month of futures contracts also changed. For example, IF current - quarter minus current - month was - 66.6, up 0.6; IH current - quarter minus current - month was - 38.4, down 1.6; IC current - quarter minus current - month was - 182.8, unchanged; IM current - quarter minus current - month was - 256.6, up 1.6 [2]. - **Futures Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 27,522.00, up 968.0; the IH top 20 net position was - 12,941.00, up 1318.0; the IC top 20 net position was - 6,184.00, up 973.0; the IM top 20 net position was - 35,743.00, up 2167.0 [2]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose, and the basis of the corresponding futures main contracts also changed. For example, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was at 3894.63, up 29.2, and the IF main contract basis was - 15.8, up 8.6 [2]. 3.2 Market Sentiment Data - **Market Trading Volume and Balance**: The A - share trading volume decreased, with the daily trading volume at 12,866.77 billion yuan, down 1647.60 billion yuan. The margin trading balance increased, with the previous - trading - day balance at 18,169.95 billion yuan, up 8.68 billion yuan. The north - bound trading volume increased, with the previous - trading - day total at 1579.54 billion yuan, up 166.58 billion yuan [2]. - **Fund Flows and Other Indicators**: The main - force funds showed a net outflow, with a net outflow of 565.78 billion yuan yesterday and a decrease of 21.92 billion yuan today. The proportion of rising stocks increased, with the daily proportion at 63.03%, up 39.75 percentage points. The Shibor decreased slightly, with the daily rate at 1.361%, down 0.001 percentage point [2]. - **Option - Related Data**: The closing price of the IO at - the - money call option (2506) increased, with a closing price of 23.80, up 9.80. The implied volatility of the IO at - the - money call option decreased, at 12.25%, down 0.12 percentage points. The closing price of the IO at - the - money put option (2506) decreased, at 42.40, down 24.40. The implied volatility of the IO at - the - money put option increased, at 12.25%, up 0.66 percentage points [2]. 3.3 Industry News - **Economic Data**: In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, the same as the previous month, and decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, changing from an increase to a decrease. PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year, with the decline further widening compared to the previous month. In the first five months of 2025, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In May, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 3.81 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%, but the scale further shrank under the impact of tariff policies [2]. - **Policy News**: On June 10th (UK local time), the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism entered its second day, starting in the morning and continuing after lunch [2].
股指期货策略早餐-20250611
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 07:58
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures**: Intraday view is slightly weak with mid - term view of range - bound movement. The CSI 300 index is expected to operate within [3820, 3960]. Suggest to exit long positions in IF2506 and hold short positions in MO2506 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Intraday view is narrow - range fluctuation for TS2509 within [102.30, 102.50], with mid - term view being bullish [2]. Commodity Futures and Options - **Black and Building Materials Sector**: Steel prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and under pressure overall in the mid - term. Suggest to continue selling call options on rebar RB2510 with strike prices between 3300 - 3450 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Core Logic**: Sino - US dialogue progresses, which injects stability into bilateral relations but also realizes bullish expectations. Domestic policies to stabilize and activate the capital market are introduced, which is beneficial for the A - share market. Market style switches frequently, lacking a continuous upward mainline. In the short - term, the market may remain volatile, and attention should be paid to structural allocation opportunities [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Core Logic**: The Sino - US leaders' call eases market concerns, and the ongoing Sino - US economic and trade consultations reduce bond market pressure. The central bank conducts large - scale net withdrawals, but the inter - bank market remains loose. The May price level is still poor, strengthening the expectation of monetary easing [4]. Commodity Futures and Options Black and Building Materials Sector - **Core Logic**: The overall inventory pressure of steel raw materials is large, and the prices of furnace materials and steel production costs are expected to be under pressure in the mid - term. The downstream consumption of steel is still poor, with plate exports not fully recovered and construction demand weakening. Under the current supply - demand pressure, there is insufficient upward drive for steel prices [5][6][8].
瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20250610
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 08:55
股指期货全景日报 2025/6/10 | 待定 中国5月金融数据 | 6/11 20:30 美国5月CPI、核心CPI | | --- | --- | | 6/12 20:30 美国5月PPI、核心PPI;美国截至6月7日当周初请失业金人数 | | | 重点关注 | | | 数据来源第三方,观点仅供参考。市场有风险,投资需谨慎! | 备注:IF:沪深300 IH:上证50 IC:中证500 IM:中证1000 IO:沪深300期权 | 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号:yanjiufuwu 电话:0595-86778969 免责声明:本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院, 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类 ...
宝城期货股指期货早报-20250610
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 01:21
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报(2025 年 6 月 10 日) ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种:IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点:震荡偏强 中期观点:上涨 参考观点:区间震荡 核心逻辑:昨日各股指均震荡小幅反弹。昨日统计局公布的最新通胀数据继续走弱,说明国内需求方 面表现不足,稳增长政策预期持续升温。目前政策利好预期升温,市场情绪偏 ...
中美将举行经贸磋商机制首次会议,股指期货偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 07:32
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The upcoming first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism will boost market risk appetite and help the stock index futures oscillate upward in the short term. However, the decline in import and export growth rates in May, the year-on-year and month-on-month decline in CPI, and the larger decline in PPI compared to the previous period will, to some extent, suppress the short-term upward movement of stock index futures [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Outlook Points - On June 9, the main contracts of stock index futures IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 opened slightly higher. IF2506 encountered resistance after rising and oscillated slightly stronger; IH2506 rebounded and then fell back, slightly declining; IC2506 and IM2506 also encountered resistance after rising and slightly increased [2]. - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year; the PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same as last month, and 3.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to last month. In May, exports (in US dollars) increased by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% previously; imports decreased by 3.4%, compared to a 0.2% decline previously [2]. Macro and Stock Market News - Politburo member and Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US [4]. - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month. The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same as last month, and 3.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to last month [4]. - In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Exports were 10.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%; imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%. In May, exports (in RMB) increased by 6.3% year-on-year, down from 9.3% previously; imports decreased by 2.1%, compared to a 0.8% increase previously; the trade surplus was 743.56 billion yuan. Exports (in US dollars) increased by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% previously; imports decreased by 3.4%, compared to a 0.2% decline previously; the trade surplus was 103.22 billion US dollars [6]. - China approves a certain number of compliant applications for rare earth exports and will continue to strengthen the review of compliant applications, and is willing to strengthen communication and dialogue on export control with relevant countries [6]. - At the end of May, China's foreign exchange reserve scale was 3285.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.6 billion US dollars from the end of April. The gold reserve was 73.83 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from the previous month, marking the seventh consecutive month of increase [7]. - Minister Wang Wentao and EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis held talks in Paris, discussing issues such as the EU's anti - subsidy case on Chinese electric vehicles, China's anti - dumping case on EU brandy, and export control. The price commitment negotiation for the China - EU electric vehicle case is in the final stage [7]. - US President Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by one percentage point. Recently, global central banks have started a wave of interest rate cuts. The European Central Bank cut interest rates on June 5, the Indian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.5% on June 6, and the Russian central bank cut the key interest rate by 100 basis points to 20% on the same day [8]. - In May, the number of non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 139,000 (the previous value was revised down to 147,000), higher than the market expectation of 130,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month [8]. - The US resumed visa processing for international students at Harvard University. Four major overseas giants, including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and HSBC, are bullish on China [8][9]. - On June 9, the A - share market oscillated and climbed. The ChiNext Index was strong, and innovative drug concept stocks led the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.23% at the mid - day session to 3393.26 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.62%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.22%, the North Star 50 rose 1.08%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 0.55%, the Wind All - A rose 0.63%, the Wind A500 rose 0.31%, the CSI A500 rose 0.32%, and the half - day trading volume of A - shares was 838.618 billion yuan [9]. Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - It is expected that IF2506 will likely oscillate stronger during the day, attacking resistance levels at 3879 and 3890 points, with 3890 points being a strong resistance. The support levels are at 3855 and 3848 points, with 3848 points being a strong short - term support [3][10]. - It is expected that IH2506 will likely oscillate and consolidate during the day, with resistance levels at 2689 and 2699 points, and 2699 points being a relatively strong resistance. The support levels are at 2664 and 2653 points, with 2653 points being a relatively strong support [3][12]. - It is expected that IC2506 will likely oscillate stronger during the day, attacking resistance levels at 5817 and 5850 points, with 5850 points being a strong short - term resistance. The support levels are at 5725 and 5708 points, with 5708 points being a strong support [3][12]. - It is expected that IM2506 will likely oscillate stronger during the day, attacking resistance levels at 6200 and 6250 points, with 6250 points being a relatively strong short - term resistance. The support levels are at 6100 and 6077 points, with 6077 points being a strong support [3][13]. - It is expected that the main contract of stock index futures IF in June 2025 will likely oscillate stronger, with resistance levels at 3933 and 3983 points, and support levels at 3750 and 3675 points. - It is expected that the main contract of stock index futures IH in June 2025 will likely oscillate stronger, with resistance levels at 2750 and 2766 points, and support levels at 2600 and 2572 points. - It is expected that the main contract of stock index futures IC in June 2025 will likely oscillate strongly and widely, with resistance levels at 5853 and 5962 points, and support levels at 5508 and 5434 points. - It is expected that the main contract of stock index futures IM in June 2025 will likely oscillate strongly and widely, with resistance levels at 6332 and 6505 points, and support levels at 5844 and 5757 points [13][14].