转自：期货日报 2025年1—7月，国际铜价在美国"232"调查以及"对等关税"政策的双重影响下，走势一波三折，政策的 不确定性对铜价的扰动极为显著。展望下半年，关税政策的不确定性对铜价的扰动或不如上半年明显， 铜定价的核心因素将更多地回归宏观面与基本面。 此外，美国制造业及房地产行业也出现了不同程度的走弱迹象：美国制造业PMI自年初以来持续下滑， 3月起便一直处于收缩区间，制造业景气度低迷；美国NAHB地产指数自年初以来也一直在回落，7月 NAHB指数为33，处于较低水平。 在经济走弱的过程中，美联储通常会同步开启降息进程，然而今年特朗普上任后，大力推行进口关税政 策，关税推高了进口商品成本，加重了美国企业和消费者的负担。因此，关税政策是否会加剧通胀，成 为美联储是否重新开启降息的关键考量因素。 目前，美联储对后续降息路径仍保持观望状态，既没有明确地释放出降息信号，也没有排除降息的可能 性。在9月会议召开之前，美联储会收到两份关于就业和通胀的报告（7月和8月），这两份报告决定9月 议息会议的决策以及后续的降息路径。 从通胀的实际表现来看，美国CPI同比在1—4月期间逐渐走低，自5月开始出现回升。具体到分项来 ...

Group 1 - The new BIS president, Pablo Hernández de Cos, emphasized the importance of central bank independence for controlling inflation and enhancing public welfare [1][2] - De Cos stated that independence allows central banks to make decisions based on economic considerations without short-term political interference, thus protecting monetary policy from becoming a tool for government financing [1][2] - The recent firing of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, leading to significant volatility in the U.S. Treasury market [1] Group 2 - De Cos compared clear price stability targets, independence, and accountability to the anchor, hull, and mast of a "monetary policy ship," highlighting the need for a solid legal framework to support central bank independence [2] - He stressed the importance of sustainable fiscal paths for central banks to fulfill their mandates, noting that uncontrolled government debt undermines central bank independence [2] - De Cos identified global challenges such as geopolitical tensions, debt burdens, trade barriers, aging populations, AI impacts, and climate change, emphasizing the need for robust policy frameworks in uncertain times [2]

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a sell-off of dollar assets and a rise in safe-haven assets like gold [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Trump's announcement, the dollar index fell by 0.3% to 98.187, with the dollar against the yen down 0.4% to 147.24, and the euro rising 0.3% to 1.165 [2]. - U.S. Treasury yields saw a steepening curve, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.2887% and the 30-year yield increasing by 3.3 basis points to 4.922% [2]. - U.S. stock futures declined, impacting major Asia-Pacific indices, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index down 0.2% and the Nikkei index closing down 0.97% [3]. Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - Analysts express concerns that Trump's actions undermine the Federal Reserve's independence, which could lead to a loss of credibility for the dollar as a safe investment [3][5]. - The potential for legal battles over Cook's dismissal raises questions about the future of the Federal Reserve's independence and its ability to maintain unbiased monetary policy [5][6]. Group 3: Gold Market Response - Gold prices surged to $3,386.27 per ounce, the highest since August 11, as market participants anticipate increased support for lower interest rates and hedge against long-term inflation risks [4]. Group 4: Political and Economic Perspectives - The political implications of Trump's actions are evident, with mixed reactions from lawmakers reflecting party lines, indicating the event's political nature [6]. - Economically, pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates could lead to higher long-term interest rates due to inflation expectations, countering Trump's objectives [7].

高晓峰：8.26美元走弱助推金价，黄金迎来利好环境 受降息预期影响，美元指数显着走弱，黄金的避险与保值价值获得市场重点关注。美联储主席鲍威尔近期的表态缓解了市场对通胀的忧虑，同时为贵金属营 造了有利的宏观环境，看涨情绪持续积聚。 然而短期风险依然存在。美国即将公布的核心PCE物价指数、GDP修正值等多项经济数据可能引发波动。此外，政治层面不确定性以及可能的美联储政策压 力，或将阶段性扰动金价走势。 技术面上，金价于3350关键支撑上方维持偏多格局。3390-3385区间的站稳情况将决定多头反攻力度。操作建议以支撑区域低多为主，激进者可关注3370- 3365附近尝试多单机会，稳健者则等待3355区域布局做多。 文/高晓峰专业国际市场点评 ，本人解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资大趋势，对原油、黄金、白银等大宗商品等有深入的研究，以上内容属于个人建议， 因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担，实时思路现价给出，如果你做单不顺或投资经常资金缩水，那么你可以添加高晓峰主页进行交流。早7：00┄ 次日凌晨2：00（周末也从不停歇，可供随时咨询) ...

Group 1 - Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a sell-off of dollar assets and a rise in gold prices [1][4][6] - The dollar index fell by 0.3% to 98.187, with the dollar against the yen down 0.4% to 147.24, and the euro rising 0.3% to 1.165 [4][5] - Market analysts predict that Trump's actions could lead to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with an 84% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September according to CME FedWatch [5][6] Group 2 - Cook has stated that she will not resign and plans to take necessary actions to prevent Trump's "illegal actions," asserting that he lacks the authority to dismiss her [2][8] - The potential legal battle over Cook's dismissal could test the Supreme Court's stance on the independence of the Federal Reserve, as past rulings have protected such officials from arbitrary dismissal [7][9] - Analysts express that Trump's actions could undermine the credibility of the dollar as a safe investment, which has historically been based on the Federal Reserve's independence [5][7]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Japanese government bond market is experiencing a significant sell-off, with the 10-year bond yield reaching 1.627%, the highest since October 2008 [1][3] - The 10-year bond futures have fallen to their lowest level since 2009, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1][3] - The 30-year bond yield has also surged to 3.235%, surpassing the previous high of 3.2% set in July [4] Group 2: Factors Influencing the Market - Investors are concerned about potential new fiscal stimulus measures from the Japanese government, which could lead to a substantial increase in bond issuance [4] - Ongoing inflation in Japan is diminishing the appeal of fixed-income assets and reinforcing expectations for tighter monetary policy from the Bank of Japan [4][8] - The recent comments from the Bank of Japan Governor indicate a growing likelihood of interest rate hikes due to rising wages and tightening labor market conditions [9] Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - There has been a notable decline in demand for Japanese government bonds from foreign investors, with net purchases of long-term bonds dropping to 480 billion yen (approximately 3.3 billion USD) in July, only one-third of June's purchases [5][6] - The decrease in foreign investment is raising concerns about potential instability in the long end of the yield curve [6] Group 4: Budget Implications - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to request 32.3865 trillion yen (approximately 1.57 trillion RMB) for debt servicing in the 2026 budget, an increase of about 4 trillion yen compared to the previous year's record budget [6] - The "interest payment" portion of the debt servicing is expected to rise by 24% to 13.0435 trillion yen, while the "debt repayment" portion will increase by 9.3% to 19.3104 trillion yen [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the shifting dynamics in salary growth between different sectors, particularly emphasizing that the hospitality and healthcare industries are experiencing higher wage increases compared to traditional white-collar jobs, which are struggling to keep pace with inflation [2][3][4]. - Since 2021, the hospitality sector has seen a salary increase of nearly 30%, exceeding inflation by over 4%, while healthcare workers have experienced a salary growth of approximately 25% over the past four years [2]. - In contrast, professionals in business services, finance, and education are facing salary growth that lags behind inflation, with teachers' salaries growing nearly 5% less than inflation [2][5]. Group 2 - Despite the higher salary growth in the hospitality sector, it is unlikely that Generation Z will flock to jobs in bars or coffee shops, as entry-level tech positions still offer relatively higher pay, averaging $19.57 per hour compared to the $16 per hour for baristas [3][4]. - The white-collar job market is experiencing a slowdown in hiring, particularly in finance and professional services, with companies like Meta halting recruitment in their AI departments after a period of aggressive hiring [4]. - The education sector is noted to have the largest salary gap compared to inflation, and even those fortunate enough to secure tech jobs may face obstacles in career advancement, as promotion rates have declined from a peak of 14.6% in May 2022 to 10.3% in May 2025 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole Symposium this year highlighted the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve, with Chairman Powell indicating a potential interest rate cut in September, amidst conflicting economic signals and political pressures [5][6][7]. Group 1: Economic Signals and Fed's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is grappling with inflation above the 2% target and signs of a weakening labor market, creating a complex environment for decision-making [5][6]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noted the conflicting signals and the difficulty of timing policy changes during transitional periods [6]. - Powell's remarks suggested that tariffs are impacting prices, but the long-term effects on inflation remain uncertain [7]. Group 2: Political Pressures - Political pressure on the Fed is intensifying, particularly from President Trump, who is advocating for rate cuts and threatening to dismiss officials over controversies [6][7]. - The atmosphere at the symposium was notably tense, with increased security measures reflecting the heightened scrutiny of the Fed's actions [6]. Group 3: Fed's Policy Framework - Powell introduced a new framework aimed at guiding the Fed's approach to achieving inflation and employment targets, marking a shift from previous strategies [8]. - This new strategy emphasizes the importance of an independent Federal Reserve in addressing economic challenges effectively [9][10]. Group 4: Global Economic Implications - Following Powell's speech, the euro strengthened against the dollar, raising concerns about potential downward risks to inflation in the Eurozone [11]. - The interconnectedness of the U.S. economy with global markets means that a slowdown in U.S. growth could have significant implications for other economies [11].

Sasaki表示，投资者必须考虑的一个因素是特朗普的贸易协议，这些协议要求欧洲、日本和韩国等国在 美国投资数千亿美元。"如果有大量投资进入美国，最终美元将得到支撑，美国股市也将得到支撑。因 此，做空美元或美国资产可能只会让你亏钱。" 美国总统特朗普再次重创美联储独立性，全球投资者周二遭受冲击，他们在政策被政治化的担忧与市场 可能获得的回报之间左右为难。 特朗普宣布解雇美联储理事库克的决定令市场感到意外，尽管他上周已明确表示库克是目标之一，且数 月来一直攻击主席鲍威尔，以此作为其迫使美联储降息行动的一部分。 Capital.com高级金融市场分析师Kyle Rodda表示，"这是美国这座大厦及其可投资性上出现的又一道裂 缝。" Rodda说，他担心特朗普政府的动机，认为此举并非为了维护美联储的完整性，而是为了在美联储安插 自己的人马，"这又回到了对体制的信任问题上。" 尽管库克的离任尚未确定，且她已对特朗普将其免职的权力提出异议，但特朗普声称解雇"立即生效"， 而此时距离美联储政策会议仅剩两周，这对投资者来说是另一个担忧。 尽管如此，市场反应平淡。短期美债收益率小幅下跌，而市场预期这种强制性货币宽松将导致通胀， ...

智通财经APP注意到，尽管投资者对经济放缓的迹象和过高的股市估值感到担忧，但他们正从美国企业 界获得一些安慰。这种安慰来自企业的营收预测。 尽管投资者对特朗普总统的贸易战和美联储的货币政策仍存不确定性，但企业的营收预测持续改善。 杰富瑞的分析显示，在本季度调整了营收预期的标普500指数成分股公司中，有44%上调了预期——这 是自2021年以来的最高比例。而下调预期的比例仅为14%，是该公司自2015年有数据以来的最低水平。 "管理层基本上没有理由在他们没有100%把握的事情上提高指引，因为他们知道这么做的后果，"杰富 瑞股票研究产品管理高级副总裁安德鲁·格林鲍姆表示。"我认为这很大程度上是推动股市上涨的动 力。" 美联储官员正在应对仍高于2%目标且正在上升的通胀，以及显示疲软迹象的就业数据。关税将如何影 响这些因素的不确定性也日益凸显。 然而美国企业界几乎没有表现出担忧的迹象。 摩根士丹利对财报电话会议的分析发现，随着公司在4月初爆发的全球贸易战后重新调整展望，本季 度"订单簿"和"上调指引"的提及率升至近期高点。 通信服务、金融、非必需消费品和信息技术是标普500指数中，过去几个月2025年和2026年每股 ...