Group 1 - The new Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, emphasizes the independence of monetary policy and bases decisions on objective economic data, advocating for a 50 basis point rate cut, which he was the only member to support [1][3] - Milan predicts that interest rates need to be lowered by more than 100 basis points by the end of the year, arguing that current rates are significantly above the neutral rate and that strict immigration policies will reduce housing demand and inflationary pressures [2][3] - Milan's stance on aggressive rate cuts may lead to market volatility, as he warns that prolonged deviation from the neutral rate could threaten employment targets [2][3] Group 2 - Milan's communication with Trump was limited to congratulations, with no discussion of voting intentions, reinforcing his commitment to independent economic data interpretation and alleviating concerns about political interference [4] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari supports the current rate cut decisions, citing low risks of inflation from tariffs and viewing Milan's appointment as a routine personnel change, indicating continued public trust in the Fed's independence [5] - Milan's aggressive rate cut proposals could exert 5%-8% downward pressure on the dollar index in the short term, contradicting traditional views that high rates support the dollar, and potentially accelerating capital outflows to emerging markets [6]

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3,760, with the latest price at $3,754.89 per ounce, reflecting a 0.23% increase, and a high of $3,758.97 and a low of $3,737.71 during the session, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1][3] - The recent strong rebound in gold prices is supported by the weakness in the US dollar index, which faced resistance and declined, maintaining a downward trend that is expected to support gold prices [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve's new governor, Stephen Milan, has called for significant and rapid interest rate cuts in the coming months to prevent unnecessary layoffs in the labor market, indicating that current rates are too high [2] - Milan expressed that the neutral interest rate has significantly declined and may have been systematically overestimated, suggesting a need for rate reductions to avoid economic damage [2] - He anticipates a total of 125 basis points in rate cuts over the remaining meetings this year, which is much higher than the median forecast of 50 basis points among officials [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in the financial markets, particularly focusing on the U.S. dollar index, silver prices, and the implications of Federal Reserve officials' comments on interest rates and inflation [1][3][4]. Market Overview - The U.S. dollar index is trading around 97.29, while spot silver opened at $44.00 per ounce and is currently around $43.97 per ounce [1]. - On September 22, the dollar index fell by 0.35% to close at 97.32, while spot silver rose by 2.29% to $44.05 per ounce, marking a new high since May 2011 [1]. - Spot gold surged over $60, reaching a new historical high above $3740, closing at $3746.36 per ounce [1]. Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman is expected to speak on economic prospects, and the U.S. will release preliminary PMI data for September [1]. - Fed official Milan suggests that the neutral interest rate has been overestimated and advocates for a 1.25% rate cut this year, estimating the neutral rate at around 2.5% [3]. - Fed's Bostic expresses reluctance to support another rate cut in October due to inflation concerns, indicating only one expected cut in 2025 [3]. - Cleveland Fed President Mester emphasizes caution in monetary policy adjustments due to persistent inflation above the 2% target [4]. Silver Market Analysis - The SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 163.76 tons to 15,368.9 tons [2]. - Silver market opened at 43.113, experienced a slight pullback, and then surged to a high of 44.11 before closing at 44.053, indicating a bullish trend [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding monetary policy, particularly following its first interest rate cut since December of the previous year, which has sparked significant debate among its members [1][3]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - The Federal Reserve is split into two camps: one led by the White House economic advisor, advocating for substantial rate cuts to protect the labor market, and the other, led by several regional Fed presidents, cautious about further cuts due to inflation concerns [3]. - The economic landscape has fundamentally changed under the Trump administration, with the neutral interest rate potentially lowered to around 2.5%, nearly 2 percentage points below the current rate [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate remains relatively low at 4.3%, but the growth rate of new job creation has noticeably slowed [4]. - Tariff policies from the Trump administration are complicating the economic situation by affecting both inflation and employment [4]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Fed officials predict that by the end of 2025, inflation will still be 1 percentage point above the target level, which typically would trigger warnings for rate hikes, but the current context is different [4]. - The impact of tariffs on core PCE inflation is estimated to be around 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points, with the possibility that this effect may be a one-time price level change [4]. Group 4: Future Implications - The outcome of the Fed's internal debate will significantly influence not only the U.S. economy but also global market trends, as the Fed must balance employment protection with inflation control amid rising uncertainties [5].

Market Commentary - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with officials subsequently commenting on the decision [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan emphasized the necessity of significant rate cuts in the coming months to protect the labor market, citing that current rates are too high [2] - Milan's speech marked his first policy address since being appointed by Trump, where he discussed the decline of the neutral interest rate due to factors like tariffs, immigration restrictions, and tax policies [2] - Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Harmack expressed ongoing concerns about inflation, warning that officials should remain vigilant during rate cuts to prevent economic overheating [2] - Harmack noted that inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for over four years, and it may take several more years to return to the target level [2] Stock Market Activity - The Hong Kong Stock Connect recorded a net inflow of HKD 12.7 billion on Monday, with the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800.HK) seeing the highest net inflow of HKD 2.86 billion [2] - Alibaba (09988.HK) followed closely with significant net inflows, while Meituan (03690.HK) experienced the largest net outflow, amounting to HKD 385 million [2]

美联储官员们似乎有意给降息预期降温。 面对市场愈发激进的降息预期，多位美联储官员突然释放"鹰派"信号。其中，美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，目前没有太多理由进一步降息，预计2025年仅 会降息一次。美国圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆也对进一步降息表示怀疑。 有华尔街机构指出，目前美联储内部正沿着"2025年是否降息75个基点"这条线，分裂为两大观点鲜明的阵营。美联储主席鲍威尔此前也公开承认，联邦公开市场委 员会内部对后续的降息路径存在较大分歧。 美东时间9月22日，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）在纽约经济俱乐部活动上的书面发言中表示，当前利率过高，美联储需要在未来数月大幅降息以保护 美国劳动力市场。米兰对中性利率的预估值约为2.5%，明显低于美联储官员3%的中位预测。他还补充说，可能会在未来的美联储会议上继续投下反对票。 "不支持进一步降息" 美东时间9月22日，美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克在采访中表示，目前没有太多理由进一步降息，预计2025年仅会降息一次。 这意味着，博斯蒂克认为，美联储在今年剩余的两次议息会议上（10月、12月）均无需再降息。这大幅低于市场预期的降息幅度，交易员的押注显 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 23 日 铝：小幅调整 氧化铝：承压下行 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 期货研究 【综合快讯】 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20745 | -50 | -275 | 30 | 720 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20715 | l | ー | l | l | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2655 | -21 | -50 | 31 | 172 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 118717 | 11654 | -14512 | -24832 | 20728 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 236067 | -9800 | 53626 ...

行情回顾： 国际黄金周一（9月22日）大幅走高强势收涨，开盘价3687.48美元/盎司，最高价3736.27美元/盎司，最低价 3683.74美元/盎司，收盘价3736.03美元/盎司。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为10.2%，降息25个基点的概率为89.8%。美联储12月 维持利率不变概率为1.7%，累计降息25个基点的概率为23.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为75.3%。 技术面： 消息面： 美联储博斯蒂克表示，对通胀的担忧将使他暂时不愿宣布支持10月再次降息，尽管近几个月来经济风险已转向 对就业的更大担忧。博斯蒂克在接受采访时表示，在上周的美联储会议上，他预计2025年全年只会降息一次。 由于美联储上周降息，这表明其目前预计今年剩下的两次会议都不需要再次降息。博斯蒂克说："我对长期以 来过高的通胀感到担忧。"所以我今天不会采取行动或支持它，但我们会看到会发生什么。"博斯蒂克在6月的 会议上也预计2025年降息一次。他表示，他对上周降息的决定感到满意，因为与3个月前相比，经济面临的风 险在就业疲软和通胀上升之间更为均衡，当时通胀是首要任务。 克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克周一表示，在 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices reached historical highs for three consecutive trading days, with the Dow Jones up 66 points (0.14%) closing at just over 46,381, the Nasdaq rising 157 points (0.7%) to 22,788, and the S&P 500 increasing by approximately 29 points (0.44%) to 6,693 [3][4] - The intraday highs were also notable, with the Dow reaching 46,447, the Nasdaq hitting 22,801, and the S&P 500 touching 6,698 [3][4] Federal Reserve Actions - The core reason for the market surge is attributed to the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points, the first since December of the previous year, which was interpreted as a dovish signal amid signs of a slowing labor market [4][5] - Market optimism has increased, with expectations that the Fed may implement two more rate cuts of 25 basis points by the end of the year [4] Economic Indicators - Key upcoming economic indicators include the PCE price index, which is closely monitored by the Fed. The market anticipates a slight increase in inflation pressure, but a moderate rise would likely allow the Fed to maintain its current policy stance [5] - The risk of a government shutdown is also a concern, as recent bipartisan funding proposals were rejected, and the deadline approaches [5] Federal Reserve Officials' Insights - Recent comments from Fed officials indicate a consensus that current interest rates are too high, with calls for significant rate cuts to prevent rising unemployment and support the labor market [6] - There are differing opinions among Fed officials regarding inflation and the pace of future rate cuts, with some cautioning against aggressive easing due to the risk of overheating the economy [6] Company-Specific Developments - In the tech sector, there are mixed signals, with potential regulatory changes affecting companies reliant on foreign tech workers, and specific companies like Kenvue facing stock declines due to health warnings related to their products [7] - Positive developments include significant stock price increases for companies like Metsera, which is rumored to be acquired by Pfizer, and Tesla, which has seen target price upgrades from various institutions [7] Investment Strategy - While the recent market highs are noteworthy, a focus on long-term investment strategies is emphasized, with attention to key economic indicators and potential risks that could impact market sentiment in the near term [8]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices reached record highs for the third consecutive trading day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average peaking at 46,447.13 points, the Nasdaq at 22,801.90 points, and the S&P 500 at 6,698.88 points during intraday trading [1] - At market close, the Dow rose by 66.27 points (0.14%) to 46,381.54 points, the Nasdaq increased by 157.50 points (0.70%) to 22,788.98 points, and the S&P 500 gained 29.39 points (0.44%) to 6,693.75 points [1] - Notable stock performances included Tesla (TSLA.US) rising nearly 2%, Apple (AAPL.US) increasing over 4%, and Nvidia (NVDA.US) gaining nearly 4% with a market capitalization of $4.46 trillion [1] European Market - The German DAX30 index fell by 122.49 points (0.52%) to 23,522.76 points, while the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 6.48 points (0.07%) to 9,223.15 points [2] - Other European indices showed mixed results, with the French CAC40 down 23.48 points (0.30%) and the Spanish IBEX35 down 236.93 points (1.55%) [2] Commodities - Crude oil prices saw slight declines, with light crude oil futures for October down $0.04 to $62.64 per barrel (0.06%) and Brent crude oil futures for November down $0.11 to $66.57 per barrel (0.16%) [2] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin fell over 2% to $112,933.10, while Ethereum dropped more than 5.6% to $4,195.60 [3] Precious Metals - Spot gold reached a new all-time high at $3,747.06, having increased over $1,105 this year, indicating a potential market panic despite a generally optimistic market outlook [3] Macroeconomic Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggested a need for a 1.25 percentage point rate cut within the year, citing current rates as too high and emphasizing the downward pressure on neutral interest rates due to various economic factors [4] International Student Trends - The number of international students in the U.S. has dropped to a four-year low, with a 19% year-over-year decline in August, particularly among Asian students, which could result in a $7 billion loss for U.S. universities [5] Legal Developments - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to consider expanding presidential powers regarding the dismissal of independent agency officials, which could have implications for regulatory bodies [6] Corporate Developments - Nvidia plans to invest up to $100 billion in partnership with OpenAI to develop AI data centers, with the first deployment expected in the second half of 2026 [6] - Google is launching its Gemini AI assistant on Google TV, aiming to enhance user interaction and content discovery across over 300 million active devices [7] Market Predictions - Michael Saylor predicts Bitcoin could appreciate at an average annual rate of nearly 29% over the next twenty years, driven by the emergence of new financial products and business models [8] Analyst Ratings - Wedbush raised Apple's target price to $310, while Citigroup increased General Motors' target price to $75 from $61 [8]