银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 5 月 22 日星期四 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，伦敦金继续上行，最终收涨 0.76%，报 3314.36 美元/盎司，创 | | 研究员：王伟 | 近一周新高。伦敦银最终收涨 0.95%，报 33.38 美元/盎司。受外盘驱动，沪金主力合约 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 收涨 0.92%，报 777.84 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.86%，报 8285 元/千克。 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 2.美元指数：美元指数持续下行，最终收跌 0.56%，报 99.60。 | | | 3.美债收益率：受累于 20 年期美债标售需求疲软，10 年期美债收益率收报盘中一度触 | | 及 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 2 月以来新高 4.609%，最终收于 4.587%。 | | 期 ...

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 5 月 22 日星期四 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2506 合约收于 77920 元，跌幅 0.22%，沪铜指数减仓 6043 手至 52.50 万 手。 2.现货：现货商甩货，现货升水大幅下降。上海报升水 135 元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 140 元/吨。天津报贴水 70 元/吨，下降 70 元/吨，由于持货商对后市悲观低价出货。广东库存 和铜价均走低，持货商挺价出货，报升水 205 元/吨，上涨 20 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1. 5 月 22 日，铜矿商自由港印尼公司称，其位于东爪哇岛、耗资 37 亿美元 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The international gold market experienced significant volatility, with spot gold and New York futures prices dropping sharply, leading domestic gold jewelry prices to fall below 1000 yuan per gram [1] - The recent decline in gold prices reflects a shift in market sentiment from optimism to caution, with five out of the last eight trading days showing price decreases [3][5] Group 2: Price Dynamics - As of May 16, spot gold fell by $20 to below $3160 per ounce, marking a daily decline of 2.56%, while New York futures dropped by 2% to $3162.00 per ounce [3] - The price of gold has decreased significantly from historical highs, with a more than 100% increase since November 2021, indicating a natural correction after prolonged high prices [3][5] Group 3: Factors Influencing Price Decline - Divergence in trading perspectives has increased as prices reached historical highs, with some investors cashing out while others remain bullish on gold's long-term prospects [5] - The narrative of "dollar credit collapse" that previously supported gold prices has been interrupted, as the dollar maintains its status as a major reserve currency despite global economic changes [7] - Central bank gold purchases, while historically a support factor for gold prices, are now viewed with caution due to potential impacts on foreign exchange reserves and macroeconomic stability [8] Group 4: External Catalysts - Breakthroughs in global tariff negotiations have been identified as a key reason for the recent decline in gold prices, as improved trade conditions reduce the demand for gold as a safe haven [10][11] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, there are differing views on the long-term trend of gold prices, with potential support from ongoing global economic uncertainties and the need for asset diversification [13] - Key factors to monitor include the pace of global economic recovery, the strength of the dollar, and geopolitical developments, all of which can significantly influence gold prices [14] Group 6: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a rational and cautious approach in the current volatile gold market, focusing on technical indicators and market sentiment for short-term trading opportunities [16] - For long-term investors, utilizing current price adjustments to gradually build positions in gold may yield benefits, given its low correlation with other assets [16] Group 7: Market Balance - The recent sharp decline in gold prices represents a self-adjustment of the market, highlighting the complexity and dynamism of gold price drivers [18] - The gold market is expected to seek a new balance amid profound changes in the global economic landscape, emphasizing the importance of rationality and research in investment decisions [18]

2025-05-05 2025 年五一假期专题报告：多空交织，市场涨跌不一 金元期货投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】37 号 联系电话：0898-66552081 投资咨询部：汤祚楚（F3083973 Z0016291） 陈慧文（F03092243 Z0019922） 王妤（F03126705 Z0020083） 吴加总（F03096409 Z0020259）张桥（F03130419 Z0020424） 一、2025 年五一假期外盘涨跌幅 | 板块 | 外盘品种 | 收盘价 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (4月30日 15:00) | (5月5日15:00) | | | 外汇及 | 美元指数 | 99. 22 | 99. 8 | 0. 58% | | 贵金属 | 美白银连 | 33.04 | 32. 62 | -1.27% | | | 美黄金连 | 3315. 2 | 3271 | -1.33% | | 股指 | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 | 6894. 72 | 7172. 4 | 4. 03% | | | 德DAX | 22425 ...

Group 1 - The overall sentiment in the market is positive as billion-level private equity firms increase their positions, indicating confidence in the current market environment [1] - As of May 16, the overall stock private equity position index remains stable at 75.16%, maintaining above 75% for six consecutive weeks [1] - 56.18% of stock private equity firms are fully invested, while 24.10% are at moderate levels, 12.64% at low levels, and 7.08% are in cash [1] Group 2 - Dongxing Securities notes that after fluctuations due to the tariff war and earnings disclosures in April, market concerns about index levels have decreased, shifting focus to market rhythm and opportunities [2] - The market is expected to remain in a range-bound phase, with the second quarter's fundamentals still unclear, and concerns about the fundamentals have not changed [2] - Eastern Securities highlights that substantial progress in China-US tariff negotiations has reduced economic downward pressure, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite [2]

越南政府：美国与越南结束第二轮关税谈判，仍有一些未解决的问题需进一步磋商。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that recent economic indicators for April demonstrate the resilience of China's economy, with some data exceeding market expectations, particularly an 8.1% year-on-year increase in goods exports in USD terms [1] - Despite a decline in exports and imports with the US by 21% and 13% respectively, exports to non-US regions have significantly increased, indicating a need to reassess the impact of tariffs on the economy in May and June [1] - The expectation for further policy easing may need to be re-evaluated based on the stable growth in production and demand, contrary to previous market expectations of economic pressure [1] Group 2 - The next phase will see more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with a focus on stabilizing the domestic economic cycle, particularly through the real estate market [2] - From January to April, general public budget expenditure increased by 4.6%, while government fund budget expenditure rose by 17.7%, indicating a broad fiscal expenditure growth of over 7% [2] - The adjustment of micro-policies is crucial, as current low price phenomena are influenced not only by supply relations but also by the micro-market environment and pricing systems [2] Group 3 - The expansion of domestic demand strategy should focus on structural adjustments rather than just short-term stimulus, requiring a shift in understanding macro policies from crisis management to mid-term structural adjustments [3] - A better understanding of the relationship between policy choices, coordination of macro and micro policies, and the balance between short-term policies and mid-term reforms is essential for enhancing economic resilience [3]

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal data for January to April 2025 shows a narrowing decline in tax and land transfer revenues, alongside proactive government spending, indicating a more aggressive fiscal policy in response to economic conditions [2][3]. Revenue Summary - National general public budget revenue for the first four months reached 8.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, which is a narrowing of 0.7% compared to the previous month [2]. - Tax revenue for the same period totaled 655.56 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, but April marked the first month of positive growth at 1.9% [5]. - Major tax categories showed varied performance, with domestic VAT at 262.54 billion yuan (up 1.8%), domestic consumption tax at 65.02 billion yuan (up 1.8%), and personal income tax at 53.76 billion yuan (up 7.4%) [5]. - Non-tax revenue growth has slowed to 7.7%, significantly below the three-year average of 11.1% [5]. Expenditure Summary - General public budget expenditure for January to April was 9.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, exceeding the annual expected growth rate of 4.4% [7]. - Social welfare, education, and health expenditures rose by 6.6%, contributing 2.9% to total fiscal spending [7]. - Infrastructure-related spending decreased by 2.3%, but the decline is narrowing, indicating potential future improvements as special government bonds are issued [7][8]. - Government fund expenditure reached 2.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, driven by accelerated special bond issuance [8]. Debt and Policy Outlook - The issuance of government bonds, including special bonds, has increased significantly, with a total increase of 3.7 trillion yuan in government debt from January to May [8]. - Future fiscal policies are expected to focus on enhancing consumer spending, social welfare, and support for real estate projects [8][9].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-05-21 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-05-21 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 5 年期和 1 年期 LPR 利率均下调 10 基点 观点分享： 5 月 20 日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025 年 5 月 20 日贷款市 场报价利率（LPR）为：1 年期 LPR 为 3.0%，5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.5%。此前政策利率已于 5 月 8 日下调，此次 LPR 下调 10 基点符合市场预期。当日稍早，中国四大行以及招商银行、 交通银行纷纷官宣下调存款利率，最高 25 基点。新一轮存款利率下调意味着持有现金的机会 成本进一步降低，这可能会推动更多资金转向股市、债市和理财产品等投资渠道，为资本市 场带来新的流动性。据央行披露，4 月，企业新发放贷款加权平均利率约 3.2%，比上年同期 低约 50 个基点；个人住房新发放贷款加权平均利率约 3.1%，比上年同期低约 55 个基点。 贷款利率持续处于下行通道之中。有分析认为，本次 LPR 下行，有望进一步提振居民住房消 费的意愿和能力，促进住房消费需求释放。我们认 ...

首席点评： 这边风景独好 中国人民银行行长潘功胜：实施好适度宽松的货币政策，满足实体经济有效融资需求，保持金融总量合 理增长。国际局势：印度和巴基斯坦已同意在五月底前将军队撤至冲突前的位置。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内 伊：我认为与美国的核谈判不会成功。稳定向好的经济环境是发展的基石，对比纷乱的国际局势，坚定 看好国内大循环、大市场走好自己的路。 重点品种： 股指、 国债 、铜 股指： 美国三大指数小幅下跌，上一交易日股指上涨，美容护理板块领涨，国防军工板块领跌，全市 成交额 1.21万亿元，其中IH2506上涨0.45%，IF2506上涨0.63%，IC2506上涨0.58%，IM2506上涨 0.88%。资金方面，5月19日融资余额增加35.97亿元至17984.54亿元。5月7日国新办发布会发布了利好 政策，5月12日中美关税谈判取得阶段性成果，短期利好股市。当前我国主要指数的估值水平仍然处于 较低水平，中长期资金入市配置的性价比仍然较高。从当前走势看，短期暂无持续向上突破的迹象，建 议股指期货先观望，股指期权以卖权为主。 国债： 小幅下跌， 10年期国债活跃券收益率上行至1.665%。央行公开市场操作净投放17 ...