桥本英二会长兼首席执行官（CEO）（左）以不退让的决心面对美国总统特朗普，致力于完成经营改革（REUTERS） 尽管美国前总统拜登下达叫停收购的命令，但日本制铁没有放弃。突破口是喜欢推翻拜登政策的特朗普 上台。在日美关税谈判的幕后，日本制铁打出了最后一张牌——投资约110亿美元…… 日本制铁和美国围绕收购美国钢铁公司（US Steel）的攻防战事实上已经结束。尽管此前僵持不下，但 日本制铁没有让步。美国是否需要日本制铁来重振制造业？日本制铁的会长兼首席执行官（CEO）桥本 英二通过软硬兼施的博弈，将与美国总统特朗普的交易引向了"逆转胜利"。 带来逆转突破口的是美国政权换届。 特朗普喜欢推翻拜登的政策，具有灵活性。日本制铁踏实地采取了游说和私底下交涉等行动。多次与美 国商务部长卢特尼克会面，也接触了对收购计划表示理解的议员。 特朗普喜欢以关税为契机、重振美国制造业的故事。4月9日，随着金融市场出现美国股票、债券、货币 同时下跌的"三杀"，特朗普把刚刚启动的对等关税的大部分暂停90天。为了摆脱困境，美国与日本等国 正式展开关税谈判，随后围绕收购美国钢铁公司的博弈也明显取得进展。 在举行第3轮日美关税谈判的5月23 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as international political situations, central bank policies, and seasonal demand changes. Different sectors show different trends and risks. For example, the stock index is under回调 pressure due to international uncertainties, while the bond market may be affected by central bank operations and cross - quarter factors. Precious metals face "滞涨" due to the difficult loosening of the Fed's monetary policy, and various commodity futures have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [2][8][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market declined across the board on Thursday, with all major indexes down. The four major stock index futures contracts also fell. The market is affected by international news such as the situation in the Middle East and the Fed's interest rate decision. It is recommended to wait and see and observe the basis state of the futures contracts [2][3][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. The money market showed a slight convergence, and the Fed's interest rate decision had an impact on the market. It is recommended to allocate long positions on dips, pay attention to the TS2509 contract positive arbitrage strategy, and consider the curve steepening strategy when the conditions are right [7][8]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market showed "滞涨" due to the Fed's difficult - to - loosen monetary policy. Gold may have a callback risk in the short term, while silver may have an upward space if inflation expectations rise. It is recommended to hold short - call options on gold and pay attention to the impact of the Middle East situation on silver [12][13]. Container Shipping Index - The container shipping index (European line) EC main contract continued to fluctuate. The weak price increase of some airlines in July affected the bullish sentiment on the disk. It is expected that the 08 contract will remain in a volatile market in the short term, with the main operation range of 1900 - 2200 [15][16]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market had weak driving forces and narrow - range fluctuations. The macro - economic outlook was weak, but the supply - side raw materials were tight, and the inventory was low. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term, with the main reference range of 77000 - 80000 [16][17][20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price was in a weak and volatile state. The inventory increased, and the downstream consumption entered the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 21000 - 21500, and the short - term view is weak and volatile [20][22][23]. - **Tin**: The tin price was in a high - level shock under strong reality. The supply of tin ore was tight, but the demand was expected to be weak. It is recommended to short at high levels around 260000 - 265000 based on inventory and import data inflection points [24][26]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market had a slight rebound, but the fundamentals changed little. The industry was over - supplied, and consumption was sluggish. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 118000 - 124000 [27][29]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel market had a small increase at a low level, but the fundamentals remained weak. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. It is expected to operate weakly, with the main reference range of 12400 - 13000 [30][32][33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market continued to fluctuate narrowly, and the fundamentals still had pressure. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was difficult to boost in the off - season. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 56000 - 62000 [33][36]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price was in a weak and volatile state. The basis was weak, and the demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to short on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options, with hot - rolled coils and rebar respectively paying attention to the pressure at 3150 and 3050 yuan [38][39]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market had a narrow - range shock. The supply pressure was expected to increase in the off - season, and the iron water output was expected to decline. The 09 contract is considered bearish in the medium - long term, with the price range of 720 - 670 [40][42]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market had a weak and stable operation. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand had some resilience. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract on rebounds around 800 - 850 and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [42][45]. - **Coke**: The coke market had a third - round price cut, and there was an expectation of a fourth - round cut. The supply decreased marginally, and the demand was slightly recovered. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract on rebounds around 1380 - 1430 and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [47][48]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron market had a slight rebound, but the supply - demand pattern was loose. The cost was expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [49][51]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon market had a bottom - range shock. The supply pressure remained, and the cost was difficult to stabilize. It is recommended to short on rebounds [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The soybean meal market was oscillating strongly. The US soybean was supported by the rise of US soybean oil, and the domestic soybean meal was supported by the cost of US soybean. It is expected to continue to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about chasing high [56][58]. - **Live Pigs**: The live pig price was slightly oscillating. The demand was weak due to hot weather, and the supply - demand improvement was not good. The market had no basis for a sharp decline, but the upward drive was also weak [59][60]. - **Corn**: The corn price was in a high - level shock. The supply was tight in the short term, and the price was strong, but the upward momentum weakened after the price increase. In the long term, the supply - demand gap supported the price increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the wheat market and policy releases [61][62].

021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 19 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货6月18日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 120.790 | 120.750 | 120.900 | 120.870 | 0.110 | 0.09 | ...

隔夜，现货黄金在触及3366美元的低点后强势反弹，收盘于3388.40美元附近，K线形态接近十字星，显示市场多空博弈激烈。今日欧市盘中，黄 金小幅下跌，目前在3384美元附近徘徊。 降息恐巨变！ 隔夜，美股三大股指全线收跌，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数、纳斯达克指数、标普500指数分别跌0.7%、0.91%、0.84%。 美国5月零售销售环比降0.9%，预期降0.7%，前值从升0.1%修正为降0.1%。核心零售销售环比降0.3%，预期升0.1%，前值从升0.1%修正为持平。 FWDBONDS首席经济学家克里斯·鲁普基表示："经济正在放缓，消费者对前景充满疑虑，总体上更倾向于储蓄而非在商场消费。" 此外，关税谈判，传出新变数。 据日本经济新闻报道，日本首相石破茂和美国总统特朗普在加拿大的会谈，未能就关税谈判达成共识。有分析指出，这一结果使日本经济正逐渐 接近可能出现的衰退，因为美国关税给日本经济带来了冲击。 印度与美国的关税谈判进展方面，有报道称，印度政府希望得到美国政府保证，一旦双边贸易协定敲定，不会再征收任何额外关税。此前有消息 称，印度和美国在贸易谈判中的立场变得更加强硬。 值得关注的是，欧盟发言人日前表示， ...

Group 1 - The central bank governor of Indonesia highlighted that the future will remain uncertain due to tariff negotiations and tensions in the Middle East, necessitating vigilance [1]

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 18 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 银行间各主要期限利率现券收益率均有所下行，短端下行幅度更大在 3bp 左 右，至下午 16：30，10 年国债活跃券 250011 收益率报 1.6425%上行 0.05bp。 资金市场： 央行公开市场净回笼，资金面平稳宽松。今日有 3806 亿元逆回购到期，央行 开展了 1973 亿元逆回购操作，实现净回笼 1833 亿元。银行间短端资金利率多数 回落，其中银存间隔夜加权回落约 2bp 至 1.37%附近，7 天在 1.52%附近窄幅变动， 中长期资金持稳，1 年国股大行存单利率多数稳定在 1.67%左右。 ...

【文/观察者网 王一】当地时间6月16日，日本首相石破茂和美国总统特朗普在七国集团（G7）峰会上 举行了30分钟的会晤，主要讨论关税问题，但双方未能达成一致。 《日经亚洲》18日分析指出，日本自恃是美国的盟友和最大的投资者，一上来就想争取特殊关税豁免的 态度，反而导致美国更加不愿松口。而日本原想在此次谈判中打"中国牌"，提议与美国在稀土、半导体 等领域加强合作，却没想到美国率先与中国达成了协议，导致日本失去了这一谈判筹码。 在会晤后的记者会上，石破茂表示，"现在仍然存在双方认识不一致的点，因此未能达成整体协议"。 日美首脑会谈未能就取消关税达成一致。视觉中国 "美国急于与中国谈判是日本的另一项误判，"日媒指出，作为谈判筹码之一，日本原本计划向美国提 议，双方在美国与中国存在紧张关系的领域进行合作，例如加强稀土和半导体供应链的建设。但美国先 与中国达成了协议，导致日本的提议不再那么有吸引力。 当被问及达成协议的时间框架时，石破茂表示："很难说何时能解决此事。" 汽车产业对日本经济至关重要。根据日本汽车工业协会的数据，8.3%的日本劳动力都从事汽车相关工 作，汽车业为日本贡献了约10%的GDP（国内生产总值）。联 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, policy expectations, and supply - demand relationships across different sectors. Short - term market movements are often influenced by news and events, while long - term trends depend on fundamental factors [2][4]. Summary by Related Categories Stock Index - The index has stable lower support but faces pressure to break through the upper level. Tariff negotiations are ongoing, causing short - term fluctuations due to news. High dividends support the market, resulting in narrow - range oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see for now and try to sell out - of - the - money put options with a strike price of 5800 in July to earn premiums [2]. Treasury Bonds - With loose capital and strong market expectations for the central bank to restart bond purchases, the overall Treasury bond futures are rising, with the short - end being stronger. Attention should be paid to the content of the Lujiazui Forum. If expected policies are implemented, it may drive the curve to steepen bullishly. In the unilateral strategy, Treasury bond futures can be appropriately allocated with long positions on dips [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices may approach the previous high of around $3450 (¥800) if the Israel - Iran conflict escalates again. If the safe - haven sentiment weakens and the price fails to break through the previous high, out - of - the - money call options on gold can be sold at high prices. Silver still has upward potential under inflation expectations influenced by the Middle East situation on energy prices [2]. Shipping Index - The EC2508 main contract of the container shipping index (European line) is oscillating narrowly in the range of 1900 - 2200. Unilateral operations should be on hold for now [2]. Steel - For industrial steel, demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, the decline in hot metal production has narrowed, and the arrival volume has reached a high level. It can be shorted on rebounds, with the upper pressure level around 720. For coking coal, the market auction failure rate has decreased, coal mine production has declined from a high level, and the spot market is weakly stable with improved trading and better expectations. For coke, the third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 6 has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further cuts, with the price approaching the bottom. Arbitrage strategies such as going long on coking coal and short on coke can be considered [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper shows weak momentum and narrow - range oscillations. Zinc's price center has moved down, and inventory depletion provides support. Nickel's sentiment is low, and the price continues to test lower levels, with little change in fundamentals. Stainless steel's price is in a downward trend, and its fundamentals are weak. For tin, attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery rhythm, and a short - selling strategy from high levels can be adopted based on inventory and import data inflection points [2]. Energy and Chemicals - For oil, due to high geopolitical uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and see. WTI's upper resistance has expanded to [73, 74], and Brent's upper - end pressure is in [74, 75], while SC's pressure is in [540, 550]. For urea, there is short - term technical correction pressure, and the upside space needs to be verified by news. For PX, short - term support is strong, and short - long positions can be taken, while considering narrowing the PX - SC spread. For PTA, it is slightly bullish in a narrow - range oscillation, and short - long positions are recommended, along with arbitrage strategies. For PF, short - term processing fees have slightly recovered but with limited momentum. For bottle chips, processing fees may bottom - out and rebound during the peak demand season. For ethylene glycol, the shutdown of Iranian plants has boosted the price, and short - term attention should be paid to the 4450 pressure. For styrene, short - term energy disturbances cause oscillating and repeating movements, and mid - term short - selling opportunities based on raw material resonance should be sought. For caustic soda, the alumina purchase price has continuously declined, and the market is looking for a bottom. For PVC, short - term contradictions are not intensified, and it is in a low - level consolidation phase. For synthetic rubber, it has stopped falling and rebounded due to international geopolitical conflicts. For LLDPE, the spot price has risen slightly with neutral trading. For PP, it is in a weak supply - demand situation and oscillates weakly. For methanol, inventory continues to accumulate, and the basis is stable [2][4]. Agricultural Products - For grains and oilseeds, the new US soybean crop is in good condition, and the market oscillates. For hogs, due to weakening demand in hot weather, the price oscillates slightly. For corn, it lacks the power to continue rising and oscillates at a high level. For palm oil, it is expected to optimistically hit 8500 points in the short term. For sugar, overseas supply is expected to be loose, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended. For cotton, the downstream market is weak, and short - selling on rebounds is advisable. For eggs, the spot market is weak, with a bottom - rebound and then short - selling trend. For apples, trading is weak. For dates, the market price is weakly stable. For peanuts, the market price is high. For soda ash, the oversupply logic persists, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - For glass, the spot market sales have improved, and the short - term market has support. For rubber, the continuous rebound of crude oil has driven up the rubber price. For industrial silicon, the futures are oscillating in a low - level range [2][3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, futures have declined with reduced positions. For lithium, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [3].

日本首相石破茂：尚未与美国就关税问题达成整体协议，双方在关税谈判方面仍存在一些分歧。 ...

Group 1: Japan and US Trade Negotiations - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and US President Trump failed to reach a consensus on tariff negotiations during their meeting at the G7 summit, raising concerns about Japan's economic stability and potential recession due to US tariffs [1][4][6] - Japan is seeking the complete removal of tariffs imposed by the US, particularly the 25% tariff on Japanese automobile exports, which is critical for Japan's economy [5][7] - The failure to reach an agreement may lead to questions regarding Ishiba's leadership ahead of Japan's upcoming Senate elections, as the tariffs directly impact Japan's most important exports [6][8] Group 2: EU and US Tariff Discussions - The EU has stated it is not prepared to accept the US's proposed 10% global tariff, with ongoing negotiations but no agreement reached yet [3][9] - EU officials emphasize the preference for a balanced and mutually beneficial outcome, while also preparing for all options if negotiations fail [10] - The EU is under pressure from the US's threat of increased tariffs if no agreement is reached by July 9, which could significantly impact their trade relationship valued at nearly $2 trillion [10] Group 3: India and US Trade Talks - The Indian government is seeking assurances from the US that no additional tariffs will be imposed once a bilateral trade agreement is finalized, with ongoing negotiations showing a hardening of positions from both sides [2][11] - India aims to include a clause in the agreement that allows for renegotiation or compensation if the US raises tariffs in the future, ensuring stability in trade relations [11][12] - Key issues in the negotiations include US demands for India to open its market for genetically modified crops and to eliminate tariffs on medical devices, which have led to intense discussions [11][12]