特朗普设定的7月9日关税大限临近，特朗普向日本施压，试图在截止日期前快速达成协议，日本谨慎的 贸易谈判策略正面临严峻考验。依赖美国提供贸易和安全保障的日本选择温和路线，但这一策略迄今未 能取得突破性进展。 据媒体周二报道，日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正最新一轮访美未能与财政部长贝森特会面，仅与商务 部长卢特尼克进行了有限接触。新华社此前报道称，特朗普6月29日在接受美国福克斯新闻频道采访时 指出，美日贸易"不公平"，可能会向日本发函，"日本将不得不支付25%的汽车关税"。 据新华社，美国政府目前对进口汽车加征25%关税，日本在日美关税谈判中呼吁取消，但美方并不情 愿，谈判举步维艰。分析人士指出，随着7月20日日本参议院选举临近，日本方面在农产品关税等敏感 议题上让步空间有限。日本政府陷入美国期待与国内选举压力的两难境地。 谈判陷入僵局 日方频繁访美收效甚微 赤泽亮正近几个月已七次访问华盛顿，但最新一轮谈判成果有限。据媒体报道，他在6月27日与卢特尼 克磋商约一小时，次日再次电话交流，但未能与关键谈判负责人贝森特及美国贸易代表格里尔会面，便 于29日返回日本。 "大多数时候我从羽田机场起飞时都没有确定的会议安排， ...

若就业数据呈现超预期韧性，金价或维持震荡偏弱走势。中长期而言，美国大型减税法案导致的财政赤字 抬高以及美元信用受损仍利多金价，联储官员发言基调转鸽，提振白银工业属性，银价或具备更强的韧性 免责声明 。短期注意回调风险，沪金2508合约关注区间：760-790元/克；沪银2508合约关注区间：8700-9000元/千 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 贵金属产业日报 2025-07-01 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 776.1 | 8.52 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8810 | 48 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 167465 | 11644 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 264724 | -12978 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 140014 | 4967 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | ...

马来西亚财政部长：在关税谈判中，美方的反馈一直很正面。 ...

国投期货研究院 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属小幅反弹。近期随着伊以停火市场风险偏好向好，金价回吐战争溢价，市场关注点将转 向关税谈判和美联储。特朗普对关税延期不置可否,鲍威尔认为利率的变化仍取决于经济走向,关 注本周一系列重要数据验证，今晚将公布美国ISM制造业PMI和JOLTs职位空缺数。 【铜】 隔夜铜价收复盘中跌幅，美元指数因财政法案与7月降息概率延续弱势，同时，加拿大取消数字关 税,美股再创历史新高。沪铜夜盘阳线,昨日现铜79990元,上海铜升水130元,精废价差扩至2100 元以上，SMM社库12.61万吨。技术上，短线沪铜涨势可能打开到8.1万。中长期趋势交易仍建议关 注高位空配。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝震荡。周初铝锭铝棒社库较上周四小幅增加,华东现货升水继续下降30元至70元,华南铝 棒加工费跌至负值,终端消费前置和淡季负反馈初步显现。近期宏观风险偏好向好推动有色强势, 沪铝指数持仓处于近年高位显示市场分歧大, 警惕阶段性回调风险。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月01日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价延续震荡偏弱走势，布伦特09合约涨0.44%。伊以冲突降温后原 ...

美国特朗普政府定为关税谈判最后期限的7月9日日趋临近。截至目前，称得上谈判实质性成果 的只有2项，即与英国和中国达成的协议。此外，与印度的谈判目前似乎进展最快…… 美国特朗普政府定为关税谈判最后期限的7月9日日趋临近。特朗普正在加大对贸易伙伴国的施压力度， 迫使日本和欧盟等国在限期之前达成"协议"。各国都存在无法轻易让步的主题，不得不做出艰难的判 断。 印度领先？贸易的协定进入"最终阶段" 截至目前，称得上特朗普政府关税谈判实质性成果的只有2项，即与英国签署的扩大贸易协议以及与中 国为缓和紧张关系而达成的协议。 除此之外，与印度的谈判目前似乎进展最快。特朗普6月27日表示"基本达成协议"，白宫贸易顾问莱维 特也在30日的记者会上表示，与印度签署新贸易协定的工作已进入最终阶段。 加拿大作出让步，同意取消数字税 加拿大不在美国的对等关税范围内，但因非法移民和毒品问题而被加征25%的关税。加拿大要求美国修 改包括钢铁和铝关税在内的关税措施。 欧盟存在"50%关税"危机，有意在期限前达成协议 欧盟也表现出在期限之内达成妥协的意愿。欧盟委员会贸易专员谢夫乔维奇计划7月1日访美，举行部长 级磋商。特朗普政府对欧盟表示，如 ...

Core Points - The impending tariff deadline set by Trump on July 9 is causing significant congestion in major European ports, with delays expected to last for several months [1][3] - The congestion is exacerbated by labor shortages, strikes, low water levels in the Rhine River, and increased risks in the Red Sea shipping routes [1][4] - The European ports are facing a dual challenge of increased cargo from Asia and the urgency to ship goods to the U.S. before the tariff deadline [4] Tariff Impact - Trump's tariffs include a 10% baseline tariff and 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, affecting approximately 70% of EU exports to the U.S., valued at around €380 billion (approximately $430 billion) [3] - The EU has prepared retaliatory measures targeting U.S. products worth about €210 billion, with additional products under negotiation valued at €950 billion [3][4] - If the tariffs are implemented, EU exports to the U.S. could decrease by more than half [4] EU Internal Dynamics - There is a division within the EU regarding the approach to U.S. tariffs, with some countries advocating for a quick agreement to avoid escalation, while others, like France, prefer a tougher stance [6] - The proposed "Swiss cheese agreement" suggests a compromise involving lower tariffs on certain goods while imposing higher tariffs on others [6] Broader Economic Implications - The congestion in European ports reflects Trump's strong position in tariff negotiations, but it may also signal potential economic repercussions for the U.S. if agreements are not reached [8] - The ongoing trade tensions and port congestion are not limited to Europe, as similar issues have been reported in U.S. ports like Seattle-Tacoma and Oakland [8]

Group 1: U.S. Sanctions on Syria - The U.S. President Trump signed an executive order to terminate sanctions against Syria, allowing for the easing of export controls on certain goods and lifting restrictions on foreign aid to Syria [2][3] - This decision ends Syria's isolation from the international financial system, which has been in place since 1979 when the U.S. designated Syria as a "state sponsor of terrorism" [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates, claiming that the U.S. could save trillions in interest costs if rates were reduced to 1% [4][5] - There is a division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some officials advocating for rate cuts while others are cautious due to potential inflationary pressures [12] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new historical highs, closing up 0.47% and 0.52% respectively [13] - For the first half of the year, the Nasdaq gained 5.48%, the Dow Jones increased by 3.64%, and the S&P 500 rose by 5.5% [14] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices have significantly declined, with Brent crude futures dropping over 15% from $78.85 to around $66 per barrel since June 23 [15][17] - The decline is attributed to a decrease in geopolitical risk premiums, a return to fundamental pricing, and increased production from OPEC+ [17][19] - Current WTI crude futures are performing better than Brent due to reduced U.S. imports and increased net exports, with commercial crude oil inventories continuing to decline [18]

Market Performance - US stock indices rose collectively due to progress in trade negotiations, easing Middle East tensions, and increased expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the Dow Jones up 0.63%, Nasdaq up 0.47%, and S&P 500 up 0.52% at market close [1] - Technology stocks saw collective gains, with Microsoft, Meta, and Netflix slightly rising and reaching intraday historical highs, while Apple rose by 2%. Robinhood closed up 13%, marking its best single-day performance since April 9 [1] Trade Negotiations - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.49%, with stocks like Xpeng and JD.com dropping over 1%, while Tiger Brokers and NetEase rose over 2% and 1% respectively [2] - As the July 9 "tariff deadline" approaches, the Trump administration appears increasingly anxious due to unresolved agreements with most countries. However, concessions from Canada have boosted Trump's confidence, as Canada announced the cancellation of its digital services tax to advance trade talks [2] - Trump has also targeted Japan, threatening new tariffs due to Japan's refusal to accept US rice exports, despite Japan facing a rice shortage [2] Economic Policy - Kevin Hassett, head of the White House National Economic Council, indicated that agreements with several governments are expected to be announced after Independence Day, with a focus on pushing Trump's tax and spending bill through Congress before the holiday [3] - Despite Trump's threats, negotiations with Japan are expected to continue, as Japan is viewed as a priority for reaching an agreement rather than being a direct target for tariffs [4] - Ongoing negotiations between the US and Japan have yet to resolve key issues such as tariff levels and trade barriers, with Japan seeking exemptions from the 25% auto tariff imposed by Trump, which has significantly impacted its key industries [5]

美国财长贝森特：任何关税谈判的延期都将由美国总统特朗普决定。 ...

Group 1 - The core issue in the current market is whether the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, as the end of U.S. exceptionalism and tariff negotiations have been fully priced in [5][8][14] - The economic growth in the U.S. is facing serious challenges, as government leverage has ended, leaving private sectors to determine their own leverage based on market interest rates and long-term asset return expectations [8][12] - Recent consumer spending data showed a significant decline, with May's consumer spending down 0.28% month-on-month, marking the worst performance in over a year [17][18][19] Group 2 - The upcoming tariff negotiations are critical, with deadlines approaching for agreements with various countries, including the U.S.-Europe talks by July 9 and U.S.-China discussions by August 11 [28][29] - The market has already priced in expectations for a rate cut in September, which may limit the potential for further market gains unless additional positive factors emerge [28][30] - The Federal Reserve is in a difficult position, as not lowering rates may hinder corporate and consumer leverage, while lowering rates could exacerbate inflation if not managed properly [26]