Core Viewpoint - The RMB exchange rate is expected to show a trend of gradual stabilization amidst fluctuations by 2025, influenced by both external and internal factors [1] External Factors - Increased uncertainty in the global economic environment, particularly due to the U.S. government's intensified measures against China, is likely to lead to greater volatility in the RMB exchange rate [1] - Recent market concerns regarding Trump's tariff threats have diminished, contributing to a weaker U.S. dollar index and declining U.S. Treasury yields, which may help stabilize the RMB [1] Internal Factors - Domestic issues such as insufficient demand and economic structural adjustments are also impacting the stability of the RMB exchange rate [1] - Continuous policy efforts are expected to improve the economic fundamentals in China, providing strong support for the RMB exchange rate [1] - Specific measures include the implementation of moderately loose monetary policy, potential reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, and a fiscal deficit target of around 4% to boost consumption and investment efficiency [1] Central Bank Actions - In extraordinary circumstances, the central bank may take various measures, such as moderate intervention in the foreign exchange market and adjustments to foreign exchange reserves, to ensure the exchange rate remains stable at a reasonable equilibrium level [1]

中信建投固收海外 中债徘徊，美债下探？ 美债收益率快速下行背后的直接催化剂是经济数据走弱，包括 12 月份 CPI 持 续高企、新增非农就业人数低于预期、零售额环比大幅萎缩以及消费者信心指 数创一年多新低等。此外，美联储 GDP Now 模型在出口和 PCE 数据公布后， 大幅下调了一季度 GDP 增速预期。这些因素共同导致市场对美国经济衰退或滞 胀的担忧加剧。然而，更深层次的原因是通胀趋势受到打压，再通胀叙事不稳 固，市场重新审视未来通胀压力。 摘要 • 美债收益率受经济数据走弱影响快速下行，市场对美国经济衰退或滞胀的 预期增强，但深层原因是再通胀叙事不稳固，市场重新审视未来通胀压力， 需关注后续通胀数据。 • 二月份核心 CPI 数据超预期，市场对年内降息预期升温，但当前更像是经 济走弱而非滞胀，美债牛市需经济下行和通胀预期下降，降息预期受通胀 数据直接影响。 • 短期内再通胀逻辑松动有技术性原因，如一月份数据存在季节性因素，以 及美联储更关注的 PCE 数据与 CPI 存在权重差异，导致 PCE 数据表现符 合预期。 • 美债收益率短期波动受交易性因素放大，中枢判断应考虑 50-100 个基点 的波动区 ...