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Group 1 - The US dollar index continues to weaken, with a decrease of 0.47%, closing at 97.392, indicating potential further declines in August [1] - Investment demand for precious metals is rising as the SPDR Gold Trust has increased its gold holdings by over 10 tons in two consecutive days, while the iShares Silver Trust has added 500 tons in the first two days of the week [1] - Market attention is focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, with expectations of unchanged interest rates but speculation about potential rate cuts in October, which supports gold prices as a hedge during uncertain times [1] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, reaching a high of 3439.0 before retreating to a low of 3418.0, maintaining an upward trend within the hour timeframe [2] - The moving average system indicates a bullish trend for gold, with the 60-period moving average above the 100-period moving average, both showing upward momentum [2] - Oil prices are under pressure, with a potential for a slight breakdown and continued downward movement, suggesting a cautious trading approach [2]

Group 1 - The core focus of investors is on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with cautious market behavior observed as yields on U.S. Treasury bonds decline [1][4] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 2 basis points to 3.833%, the 10-year yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.342%, and the 30-year yield dropped by 4 basis points to 4.911% [1] - The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields narrowed to 52 basis points, indicating changing investor sentiment [1] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that Fed Chairman Powell does not need to resign, emphasizing the need for a review of the Federal Reserve's performance [3] - Following Mnuchin's comments, bond prices rebounded, reflecting investor relief that Powell will remain in his position [3] - Economic data releases, including June existing home sales and initial jobless claims, are anticipated to influence market sentiment [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current target interest rate range of 4.25%-4.5% with over 95% probability according to futures traders [4] - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue $78 billion in bonds, including $65 billion in 17-week short-term debt and $13 billion in 20-year bonds [5] - The European Union is preparing to implement measures against U.S. tariffs, which may affect U.S. suppliers' access to the EU market [5] Group 4 - In the Asia-Pacific region, investors are focused on the upcoming Australian CPI data, which could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decisions [6] - Australian bond yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 2.2 basis points to 3.319% and the 10-year yield down 3.8 basis points to 4.304% [6] - Japan's bond yields fluctuated following expectations of increased fiscal spending and tax cuts, with the 2-year yield closing at 0.756% [6] Group 5 - A significant trade agreement framework was announced between the U.S. and Indonesia, which will eliminate most tariffs on U.S. imports [5] - President Trump announced a "massive" trade agreement with Japan, involving a 15% tariff and a $550 billion investment from Japan [8]

Group 1 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased by 3.37 basis points, closing at 4.3440%, with intraday trading between 4.3957% and 4.3262% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield fell by 2.74 basis points, ending at 3.8334%, with a trading range of 3.8693% to 3.8207% [1] - The yields on other maturities also declined, with the 20-year yield down by 3.33 basis points and the 30-year yield down by 2.67 basis points [2] Group 2 - The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield decreased by 0.99 basis points, settling at 1.9320% [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that there is no reason for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to step down, as his term runs until May 2026 [3]

美债收益率持续走低，两年期收益率跌至3.84%，创7月3日以来新低。 ...

美债收益率继续走低，2年期收益率降至3.84%，为7月3日以来的最低水平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC suggests that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds may rise to 4.8%-5.0% in the second half of 2025 due to increased net supply and other economic factors [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - Recent data indicates that while the U.S. dollar has rebounded, short-term depreciation pressure has not been fully released [1] - The CBO estimates that the "Great Beautiful Act" will increase the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion from 2025 to 2034 [1] - Following the resolution of U.S. debt issues, net issuance of debt may reach around $1.25 trillion between July and September, contributing to upward pressure on Treasury yields [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The U.S. dollar experienced a 13% depreciation during its lowest point this year, which is not particularly significant compared to historical depreciation cycles since 2000 [1] - The report anticipates that the increase in net supply of U.S. Treasuries will lead to a rise in the term premium by 50-60 basis points [1] - It is projected that the U.S. dollar index may decline by 2-3 points as a result of these economic dynamics [1]

Group 1 - US Treasury yields mostly declined on July 21, with the 2-year yield down 3 basis points to 3.85%, the 10-year yield down 6 basis points to 4.38%, and the 30-year yield down over 6 basis points to 4.94% [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes narrowed to 53 basis points [1] Group 2 - The Conference Board reported a 0.3% decline in the Leading Economic Index for June, falling to 98.8, which exceeded the Dow Jones forecast of a 0.2% decrease [3] - The Conference Board does not predict a recession but expects significant economic growth slowdown in 2025 compared to 2024, with a projected 1.6% growth in real GDP for this year [3] - Investors are closely monitoring Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech scheduled for Tuesday, as other Fed officials remain silent ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting [3] Group 3 - The US Treasury issued $155 billion in two bond offerings on July 21, including $82 billion in 13-week bills and $73 billion in 26-week bills, with an additional $80 billion in 6-week bills scheduled for issuance on Tuesday [5]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank stated that if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell were to be removed, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds could jump by 50 basis points [1] Group 1 - The potential removal of Jerome Powell could lead to significant market reactions, particularly in the bond market [1]

Market Overview - The US dollar index declined by 0.155%, closing at 98.46, influenced by dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Waller and a decrease in consumer inflation expectations [1][2] - Spot gold prices rose, reaching a high of $3361.2 per ounce, and ultimately closing up 0.34% at $3350.4 per ounce, benefiting from the weakening dollar and US Treasury yields [1][2] - Spot silver also experienced a three-day increase, closing up 0.14% at $38.2 per ounce [1][2] Key Developments - EU representatives are expected to hold a meeting this week to formulate responses to a potential no-deal scenario with US President Donald Trump, as the August 1 deadline approaches [3] - Trump's stance in tariff negotiations is perceived to be increasingly hardline, with no significant progress reported since last week's talks in Washington [3] - Negotiations are set to continue over the next two weeks [3] Trading Insights - For international gold, support levels are noted at $3341 or $3334, while resistance levels are at $3365 or $3385 [4] - For spot silver, support is identified at $38.00 or $37.80, with resistance at $38.40 or $38.65 [4]