Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a correction, with Bitcoin dropping below $112,000, leading to over 110,000 liquidations in the past 24 hours [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July significantly underperformed expectations, indicating a rapid deterioration in the labor market, which has increased traders' bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - There is a rising concern about a U.S. economic recession, contributing to heightened risk aversion in the market [1] Market Analysis - Analysts from BiyaPay indicate that Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase since late June, with $115,000 identified as a critical support level [1] - If Bitcoin falls below $114,000, it may test the support range of $111,000 to $112,500 [1] - Long-term holders currently control 53% of the supply, suggesting that any significant selling pressure would require new capital inflows to stabilize the market [1]

Group 1 - The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is a key economic indicator released monthly by the U.S. Department of Labor, reflecting employment growth outside the agricultural sector [3][4] - NFP data significantly influences traditional financial markets, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, and is increasingly impacting the cryptocurrency market [4][22] - The relationship between NFP data and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) is becoming more pronounced, as these assets are now viewed similarly to risk assets and gold [4][22] Group 2 - Strong NFP data typically leads to expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which can pressure risk assets like BTC, while weak data may enhance expectations for rate cuts, benefiting these assets [7][8] - The correlation between NFP data and cryptocurrency prices is evident, with altcoins often experiencing more volatility than BTC due to lower liquidity [8][5] - The increasing participation of institutional investors in the cryptocurrency market is tying BTC and ETH prices more closely to macroeconomic indicators [4][22] Group 3 - In August, BTC experienced a pullback, testing a critical support level of $112,000, with expectations of a subsequent upward trend aligned with potential rate cuts in September [17][19] - ETH also faced a decline but is expected to test higher resistance levels, with significant trading volume indicating strong market interest from institutional investors [19][22] - The upcoming NFP data release is anticipated to influence both traditional and cryptocurrency markets, highlighting the interconnectedness of these financial ecosystems [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts remains uncertain, with Chairman Powell considering the legacy of his policies and the balance between tight and loose monetary policy [1][17]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain its policy rate, citing that inflation is slightly above target and the job market remains strong, with an unemployment rate of 4.1% [4][6]. - There were two dissenting votes in the recent meeting, marking the first occurrence since 1993, indicating differing views on the necessity of rate cuts [1][4]. - Powell emphasized that the current monetary policy is slightly restrictive, and future decisions will depend on upcoming inflation and employment data [4][7]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - Recent government tariffs have generated significant revenue, with monthly collections reaching $30 billion, but the impact on consumer prices is still being assessed [5][11]. - The Fed is adopting a "wait and see" approach regarding the impact of tariffs on core consumer prices, aiming to prevent temporary price increases from becoming persistent inflation [5][8]. - Powell noted that the effects of tariffs on prices may take time to materialize, and the Fed is focused on ensuring that any price impacts do not lead to sustained inflation [5][11]. Group 3: Employment and Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy showed a GDP growth of 1.2% in the first half of the year, a decline from the previous year's 2.5%, while the job market remains stable with low unemployment [9][10]. - There is a concern that the balance between job demand and supply is weakening, which could indicate underlying risks in the employment market [10][11]. - The Fed's dual mandate focuses on achieving full employment and price stability, rather than solely on economic growth [9][10]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Independence - Powell reiterated the importance of the Fed's independence from political pressures, especially in light of recent calls from President Trump for rate cuts [15][16]. - The Fed aims to focus on economic data and risk assessments rather than political influences, which is crucial for maintaining credibility in monetary policy [15][16]. - The independence of the Fed is seen as vital for effective economic governance, ensuring that monetary decisions are made based on economic conditions rather than political motivations [15][16].

Group 1 - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler was announced, with her expressing honor in serving during a critical time for the dual mission of lowering inflation and maintaining a strong labor market [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged Kugler's contributions and wished her well in her future endeavors, highlighting her impressive experience and academic insights [1] - Kugler's departure opens the opportunity for President Trump to nominate a candidate more aligned with his monetary policy stance, potentially shifting the balance in future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [2] Group 2 - Recent employment data released by the U.S. Labor Department showed a significant miss, with only 73,000 non-farm jobs added in July, far below the expected 110,000, and a substantial downward revision of June's data from over 200,000 to just 14,000 [2] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expressed concerns about the economic outlook due to the disappointing employment report, while Cleveland Fed President Mester noted that despite the weak report, the labor market remains healthy [2] - Following the employment data release, President Trump called for the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director, accusing the reported figures of being manipulated for political purposes [3]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler announced her resignation, expressing honor in serving during a critical time for the dual mission of lowering inflation and maintaining a strong labor market [1] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell thanked Kugler for her service and noted her impressive experience and academic insights [1] - Kugler's resignation opens the opportunity for President Trump to nominate a candidate more aligned with his monetary policy stance, potentially shifting the balance in future Fed interest rate decisions [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department released disappointing employment data, with only 73,000 non-farm jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, and a major downward revision of June's data from over 200,000 to just 14,000 [2] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expressed concerns about the economic outlook due to the latest employment data, while Cleveland Fed President Mester maintained that the labor market remains healthy despite the disappointing report [2] - Following the employment data release, President Trump called for the firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director, accusing the reported figures of being manipulated for political purposes [3]

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler may lead to a shift in the balance of monetary policy decisions, especially in the context of ongoing pressure from Trump and his allies for interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Resignation of Adriana Kugler - Adriana Kugler announced her resignation from the Federal Reserve Board, expressing her honor in serving during a critical time for the dual mission of lowering inflation and maintaining a strong labor market [1]. - Kugler's term was set to expire in 2026, and she is expected to return to Georgetown University as a professor [1]. - Her absence from the recent Federal Reserve policy meeting, where rates were held steady for the fifth consecutive time, raised questions about her departure [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Context and Employment Data - The resignation coincided with significant pressure from Trump for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, despite a slight easing of inflation [2]. - Shocking employment data revealed that only 73,000 non-farm jobs were added in July, far below the expected 110,000, with June's figures revised down from over 200,000 to just 14,000 [2][3]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expressed concerns that the disappointing employment report could indicate a broader economic weakness, while Cleveland Fed President Mester noted that the labor market remains healthy overall [3]. Group 3: Political Reactions - Following the employment data release, Trump called for the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director, claiming the data was manipulated for political purposes [3]. - Trump emphasized the need for accurate and fair reporting of important economic data, criticizing the significant downward revisions in employment figures [3].

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler on August 8 allows President Trump to appoint a successor sooner than anticipated, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's operations more deeply [1][3]. Group 1: Resignation and Implications - Kugler's term was originally set to end on January 31, and her resignation was announced without a specified reason, although she expressed honor in serving during a critical time for inflation and labor market resilience [1][3]. - Trump's comments suggest that Kugler's resignation may be linked to disagreements with Fed Chair Powell on interest rates, although this claim lacks strong logical support given Kugler's historically hawkish stance [1][3]. Group 2: Future Appointments and Strategy - The vacancy left by Kugler presents an opportunity for Trump to reshape the Federal Reserve, as he is currently seeking candidates to succeed Powell when his term ends in May [3][4]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has outlined a strategy where a new appointee fills Kugler's position and could later compete for the chairmanship, with expectations that Powell may leave the board entirely after his term [3][4]. Group 3: Internal Dynamics and Market Reactions - The current Fed board includes two dovish members, and if Trump appoints another dovish candidate to replace Kugler, the balance of the board could shift to a more evenly divided hawkish-dovish stance [5]. - Recent labor market data showing weaker-than-expected job growth has increased the likelihood of a rate cut in September, with market expectations rising from under 40% to 80% [4][6].

Core Insights - The ADP report indicates that the U.S. private sector added 104,000 jobs in July, significantly exceeding market expectations of 76,000, marking the largest month-over-month increase since April [1][3] - Despite the positive July data, overall hiring remains below last year's average, highlighting an uneven recovery in the U.S. labor market [3][5] - The report reflects cautious attitudes among businesses amid economic uncertainty, with mixed signals regarding the strength of the labor market [5][6] Employment Data - The leisure and hospitality sector saw the most significant job growth, adding 46,000 positions, followed by the financial sector with an increase of 28,000 jobs [3] - Conversely, the education and healthcare services sector experienced job losses for the fourth consecutive month, shedding 38,000 positions [3][5] - The manufacturing sector added only 7,000 jobs, while construction grew by 15,000, indicating varied recovery rates across different industries [5] Wage Growth - Wage growth remained stable in July, with salaries for job switchers increasing by 7% year-over-year, while those remaining in their positions saw a 4.4% increase [3] - This trend suggests that despite a slowdown in hiring, competition in the labor market is still supporting wage levels [3] Economic Outlook - Economists express that the labor market's performance reflects businesses' cautiousness in the face of economic uncertainty, with July's rebound not fully alleviating concerns about potential economic slowdown [5][6] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to show an increase of about 100,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to 4.2% [5] - The strong ADP report may reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the near term, as sustained wage growth above inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious stance [6]

宏观金银月报 国内政策定调，海外关税落地，8月份回归基本面 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 2025年8月1日 王维芒 资格编号：Z0000148 摘要 【市场和海外宏观】本月资本市场受中国反内卷定调及抑制投机需求等情绪影响，工业 品大幅冲高后回落。美国通胀预期较高，其他国家通胀表现分化，就业市场温和，但消费 者信心走高。关税基本落地，整体好于4月份结果 【国内经济表现】7月国内经济数据比较分化，工业数据尚可但是投资增速放缓，房地产 没有止跌制造业PMI回落。信贷需求宽松，社融托底力量来自政府专项债。政策短反内卷和 消费刺激齐头并进，不过月底大会为反内卷降温，后续关注政策连续性。 【金银策略】黄金短期受避险退潮冲击，白银受黄金、基本金属影响较大。长期来看， 央行购金、美元信用弱化及通胀风险仍构成战略配置价值。黄金价格调整，短期关注760附 近支撑，短期白银跌回前期震荡调整区间8700-9000，长线多头趋势上没有破坏，关注止跌 企稳之后再多单介入。 【风险提示】关税进程波折，美联储不降息（投资有风险 入市需谨慎） 2 1 国内资产价格演绎"反内卷" 2 各国通胀分化，指标喜忧参 ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - Trump's copper import tariff policy changed unexpectedly, causing COMEX copper to plummet by over 20%. The Fed's hawkish stance weakened the expectation of a September interest rate cut, and the US dollar index rebounded. The Politburo meeting did not meet the market's expectations of strong stimulus policies. Affected by high - temperature and flood disasters, China's July manufacturing PMI declined, and market sentiment turned cautious. Fundamentally, there is a co - existence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. During the off - season of demand, inventories at home and abroad have increased, dragging down copper prices. In the short term, Shanghai copper is under pressure and falling to test the support of the lower moving average. It is recommended that new speculators wait for the callback and go long at a low price (77,500 - 78,000). Upstream industrial enterprises should wait for the rebound and sell hedging at a high price to lock in reasonable profits. In the long term, copper is still optimistic as an important strategic metal in the Sino - US game. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77,000, 80,000], and for LME copper is [9,500, 9,900] US dollars/ton [6][58]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Situation US Policy and Dollar Index - Trump announced a 50% import tariff on semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1, but excluded core upstream products such as electrolytic copper and copper concentrate. COMEX copper plummeted by 20%. The Fed's hawkish stance after the July interest rate meeting completely dispelled the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut. The probability of a September interest rate cut dropped from 65% to 45%. The US dollar index rebounded to 100, with a monthly increase of 3.5%, putting pressure on copper prices [8][11]. China's Economic Data - The Politburo meeting on July 30 did not introduce strong stimulus policies, and the market's expectations were dashed. Affected by high - temperature and flood disasters, China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4. The LPR for 1 - year and 5 - year loans remained unchanged, and the Fed's non - interest - rate - cut policy restricted China's monetary policy space. Market risk appetite declined [14]. Group 3: Shanghai Copper Supply and Demand Analysis Supply Side - In 2025, global copper mines faced continuous disruptions, and copper smelting capacity expanded, leading to a shortage of copper raw materials and record - low copper processing fees. In June, China imported 2349700 tons of copper concentrate, a year - on - year increase of 1.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. From January to June, the cumulative import of copper concentrate was 14.777 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.23%. The sample smelting start - up rate of the electrolytic copper industry in July was 88.19%, a month - on - month increase of 2.43%. In June, the domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. It is estimated that the domestic electrolytic copper production in July will increase by 15500 tons month - on - month and 122200 tons year - on - year [31][35]. Demand Side - From January to June, power grid engineering investment was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. New energy vehicle production was 6.872 million, a year - on - year increase of 36.2%. However, from July to August, affected by high - temperature and flood disasters, it was the traditional off - season for terminal consumption, and the start - up rate of downstream copper products declined. In June, the start - up rate of copper product enterprises was 63.08%, and the copper product output was 2.2145 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [38]. Inventory - During the off - season of demand, overseas inventories increased. COMEX copper inventory increased by 45776 tons to 257900 tons, and LME copper inventory increased by 46950 tons to 138200 tons. As of July 31, China's electrolytic copper social inventory was 119300 tons, a decrease of 12500 tons from the beginning of the month, and the SHFE copper inventory was 73423 tons, a decrease of 11166 tons from the beginning of the month [45]. Group 4: Monthly Summary and Outlook Market Situation - Macroscopically, the Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, the US dollar index rebounded, and the US copper import tariff policy deviated from market expectations. Domestically, the Politburo meeting did not introduce strong stimulus policies, and market risk appetite declined. Fundamentally, in the short term, the contradiction in copper supply and demand lies in inventory accumulation during the off - season and inventory return pressure. In the medium term, it is the co - existence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. In the long term, it is the uncertainty of demand caused by global trade wars and Sino - US confrontation versus the explosive demand for copper in green power and new energy vehicles [57]. Strategy - In the short term, Shanghai copper is under pressure and falling. It is recommended that new speculators wait for the callback and go long at a low price (77,500 - 78,000). Upstream industrial enterprises should wait for the rebound and sell hedging at a high price. In the long term, copper is still optimistic. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77,000, 80,000], and for LME copper is [9,500, 9,900] US dollars/ton [58].