Core Viewpoint - Gold prices recorded their largest decline in over two weeks due to uncertainty surrounding the nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair, as expressed by President Donald Trump [1][3][4] Group 1: Gold Market - Following Trump's comments, gold prices fell by 1.7%, with the current price at $4,588.03 per ounce, reflecting a 0.6% decrease [4][6] - The uncertainty regarding the new monetary policy leader may continue to support precious metals, but concerns about the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts being less than market expectations exert pressure on gold prices [4] - Year-to-date, gold prices have continued their upward trend from 2025, partly due to renewed criticism of the Federal Reserve from the White House and market expectations for a loosening of monetary policy [4] Group 2: Silver Market - Silver prices experienced a significant drop of 5.1%, although it still maintains a 12% increase for the week [5][6] - The recent narrowing of silver's gains is attributed to the lack of new tariffs on key minerals, which had previously contributed to its rapid price increase [6] - The unpredictability of Trump's decisions may lead to continued strategies to support futures short positions by keeping metals within the U.S. [6]

| > | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月16日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ 白银 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数录得19.8万人低于预期为12月以来新低，美国经济保持韧性，美联储多位 官员讲话对短期内降息持否定态度。美媒称特朗普哲缓决定是否对伊朗发动军事打击,短期避险情绪有所降 温,黄金表现抗跌,美国对于全球秩序的挑战令贵金属中期维持强势,多头思路不变。 ★南美局势 --- 19知情人士称，美军已扣押第六艘与委内瑞拉有关的油轮。②美国正向墨西哥施压,要求允 许美军跨境打击贩毒。③特朗普称会前往委内瑞 ...

转自：新华财经 在供需缺口持续增加以及国内出口配额限制等基本环境下，白银价格整体维持强势。从整体波动幅度来 看，目前银价，守稳85美元／盎司一线，如期进入85-103美元／盎司的运行区间，依据技术形态分析， 银价中期95-103美元／盎司技术目标区正在逐渐实现，100美元／盎司的整数关口需要高度警惕，谨防 再次剧烈波动。 【黄金时间】是由新华财经与中国黄金报社共同打造的一档聚焦黄金珠宝市场的专题栏目，内容全面覆 盖黄金珠宝行业的政策动态、投资资讯、风险分析等，提供权威、专业、全面的黄金珠宝领域金融信息 服务。新华财经是新华社承建的国家金融信息平台。 编辑：郭洲洋 地缘局势方面，伊朗局势暂受控制，哈马斯指责以色列违反停火协议，种种因素表明冲突格局暂缓但仍 然没有停止的迹象。 综合金融市场表现来看，地缘风险仍存，美联储货币政策依然存在宽松预期，在此市场环境下，黄金价 格在今后的较长时期内将有望保持强势，短期的调整，或将都是潜在的市场机会。 从技术面来看，黄金价格的中期涨势没有改变，连续三个交易日，金价保持在4566美元上方运行，显示 金价前高的阻力转化为重要支撑后，力度依然强劲。中期上涨技术目标指向4825美元／ ...

Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices reached a historical high of $90 per ounce on January 14, with a peak of $92.2, marking a nearly 30% increase within the first half of January [2] - Citibank raised its three-month silver price target from $62 to $100, an increase of over 60%, driven by geopolitical tensions, supply shortages, and strategic material policies in China [2] - On January 15, silver prices experienced a significant drop of 7.3% due to market reactions to comments from Trump regarding tariffs and price controls, leading to panic selling among speculators [6] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The global supply of silver is constrained, with mining output not increasing and most silver being a byproduct of lead and zinc mining, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [8] - The tin market is facing supply issues due to slow recovery in Myanmar, strict regulations in Indonesia, and potential reductions in the Democratic Republic of Congo, contributing to market speculation [10] - Copper prices have surged due to expectations of global monetary easing and increased demand from AI and data center investments, although supply tightness is also a factor [13] Group 3: Federal Reserve Influence - The recent surge in metal prices is closely tied to expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with many investors anticipating interest rate cuts [15] - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials suggest that interest rates will remain unchanged, as the U.S. economy shows resilience with a low unemployment rate and inflation above target [15] - The actual yield on U.S. Treasury bonds significantly impacts precious metal prices, as lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding metals like silver and gold [17]

Core Viewpoint - Anna Paulson, President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, publicly supports Jerome Powell's leadership amid ongoing political pressure and controversy surrounding the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Group 1: Support for Powell - Paulson emphasizes the importance of strong leadership at the Federal Reserve, stating that it benefits the American public [5]. - She aligns with other Federal Reserve officials who have also endorsed Powell's integrity and leadership [5]. - Powell is currently facing a criminal investigation related to a renovation project at the Federal Reserve's Washington headquarters, which Paulson supports him on [3][4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Paulson indicates a cautious but clear stance on monetary policy, supporting recent interest rate cuts while suggesting that further cuts are not urgent [6]. - She believes the current interest rate level is "sufficiently high" and slightly above the neutral rate, which does not stimulate or suppress economic growth [6]. - Paulson anticipates significant progress in reducing inflation towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target by the end of the year, but is open to supporting small rate cuts later if inflation data continues to show easing [6][7]. Group 3: Labor Market Insights - Paulson expresses concern about the risks in the labor market, noting that 95% of private sector job growth last year was concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, which is not indicative of a healthy economy [8]. - She warns that signs of a rapid deterioration in the labor market would be closely monitored, as historical trends suggest labor market signals often dominate economic indicators [8]. - Paulson observes that companies are now more cautious in their pricing strategies, focusing on maintaining market share rather than aggressively raising prices [8].

Group 1 - The Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthened against the US dollar (USD) primarily due to the rebound in oil prices, which directly impacts Canada's economy as a major oil exporter [3] - The recent strong performance of US economic data, particularly retail sales and improvements in the labor market, has provided support for the USD, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in the short term [3] - Morgan Stanley analysts have adjusted their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, delaying them from January and April to June and September, based on stable employment data, which influences the short-term outlook for the USD [3] Group 2 - The upcoming US industrial production report is crucial for assessing the health of the US industrial sector, with strong data likely to bolster USD support, while weaker data could increase downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair [4] - Future public statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding inflation, employment, and interest rate policies may significantly impact market expectations and lead to fluctuations in currency pairs [4]

2025年底，由于不满货币贬值、物价飞涨导致生活成本飙升，中东某国多地爆发抗议活动。随着范围与 规模的不断扩大，抗议活动于2026年初演变为暴力冲突和政治抗议，成为近三年来中东某国爆发最大的 骚乱事件。美国总统特朗普对地缘局势的倾向同时引发市场关注：1月2日，特朗普威胁对该国骚乱事件 进行干涉，称美国"已做好准备"；1月8日，特朗普再次就该国骚乱事件发出威胁，称如再有人员死亡， 美国将进行"严厉打击"。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯分析师 桑潇 中东地缘风险扰动 原油价格录得五日连涨 综合来看，宏观压力与产业过剩叠加施压，2026年原油价格仍面临较大的下行压力，不过考虑到地缘局 势的频繁扰动，以及美国石油需求、美联储货币政策、欧佩克+产量政策等存在阶段性支撑，原油市场 高波动性行情料将延续，价格重心缓慢下移，欧美原油年度均值或分别在60及56美元/桶附近。市场风 险性因素，一是地缘局势，二是经济及金融系统性风险。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：李铁民 美国的干预威胁加大中东地缘风险，以及由此引发的石油供应担忧，支撑原油价格连续五日上涨，累计 涨 ...

2026年伊始，全球金融市场的目光再度聚焦于美联储的政策动向。一边是非农就业数据不及预期，一边是核心CPI数据持续降温。两 股力量相互拉扯，让市场对美联储的降息预期处于摇摆之中。与此同时，地缘政治局势暗流涌动，更为这一预期增添了诸多不确定 性。 作为全球货币政策的"风向标"，美联储的政策走向不仅关乎美国经济的复苏前景，更深刻影响全球金融市场的格局。多重变量交织 之下，美联储的货币政策路径愈发扑朔迷离。 就业放缓与失业率韧性并存 非农就业报告向来是美联储研判劳动力市场景气度的核心依据，而2025年12月的这份报告却"喜忧参半"，为政策决策增添了变数。 上周五，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国12月非农就业人口增长5万人，预期6.5万人，前值6.4万人。劳工统计局还修正了10 月和11月的非农新增就业人数。修正后，10月和11月新增就业人数合计较修正前低7.6万人。 让人意外的是，失业率有所回落。美国12月失业率降至4.4%，预期4.5%，前值4.6%。失业率低于市场预期，暂时缓解劳动力市场恶 化的担忧，一定程度上提升市场对于美联储将"按兵不动"的预期。 美国非农就业数据公布后，美元指数和美债收益率震荡回升，贵 ...

芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周四在接受采访时表示："我们面临的最重要问题是必须将通胀率 拉回至2%。"他提到，其辖区内的众多企业都对成本上升和可负担能力下降表示担忧。 智通财经1月16日讯（编辑 卞纯）周四，多位美联储官员发表讲话，暗示愿意在即将召开的货币政策会 议上暂停降息，理由是劳动力市场似乎已趋于稳定，且通胀压力仍在持续。 近期在政策辩论中立场存在分歧的五位地区联储银行行长均表示，美联储目前处于有利位置，应等待更 多数据出炉后再采取进一步行动。 市场普遍预计，美联储将在1月27日至28日的会议上维持基准利率不变，此前该央行已在过去三次会议 上连续降息。 过去一周发布的经济数据显示，美国12月失业率微降至4.4%，终结了此前数月连续上升的态势；而通 胀数据则表明，美联储偏好的通胀指标可能仍接近3%——较其2%的目标水平高出整整1个百分点。 亚特兰大联邦储备主席博斯蒂克周四在一场活动中表示："我们无需急于采取任何行动。我 们需要确保维持限制性货币政策立场，因为当前通胀率仍然过高，高物价正给美国民众带来 压力。" 许多美联储政策制定者在讲话中都表达了对美联储主席鲍威尔的支持，并强调了维护央行独立性的重要 性。 美国 ...

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Strong U.S. employment data led to a decrease in initial jobless claims by 9,000, resulting in a seasonally adjusted total of 198,000, significantly below the expected 215,000, which pushed the U.S. dollar index to a six-week high of 99.49, closing at 99.35 with a gain of 0.28% [2] - The strengthening dollar made gold more expensive for overseas buyers, suppressing demand and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in the short term, delaying the next rate cut to June, with the probability of a March cut dropping from 50% to 21.6%, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [2] - Easing geopolitical tensions, particularly Trump's softened rhetoric regarding Iran, diminished expectations of escalating Middle Eastern conflicts, thereby weakening gold's safe-haven appeal [3] - Rising bond yields, driven by strong economic data, pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.156% and the 2-year yield to 3.558%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold as inflation-protected securities (TIPS) reached new highs [4] - Trump's decision to retain Federal Reserve Chairman Powell alleviated market concerns about Fed leadership instability, boosting risk sentiment and further supporting the dollar's upward momentum [4] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold exhibited a volatile trading pattern, closing with a long lower shadow on a bearish candle, while remaining above the 5-day moving average, suggesting a continuation of a strong consolidation phase [5] - The current upward trend in gold, which began at 3886, is characterized by a five-wave structure, with the market currently in the fifth wave, necessitating caution regarding potential pullback risks [6] - Key support levels to monitor include the 4540/4535 area, corresponding to the 10-day moving average, while initial resistance is noted at the current high of 4642/4643 [7] - The four-hour chart analysis maintains focus on the five-wave structure since the 4274 point, with the market currently within a rising channel, requiring close monitoring of the channel's performance [9] - The lower support of the channel is near 4580, which aligns with previous low points, while the upper resistance is around 4650; breaking below the channel support would lead to further attention on 4560 and 4540/4535 support levels, while a breakout above resistance would shift focus to 4661 and 4690 [9]