12月15日，经济学家预测，欧洲央行的下一步利率行动将是加息，这与投资者和具有影响力的执行委员 会成员伊莎贝尔·施纳贝尔的观点一致，因为通胀率正稳定在2%左右。一项调查中，超过60%的受访者 表示，官员们更有可能上调而非降低借贷成本——这是一个显著的变化，因为在10月份，只有三分之一 的受访者持这种看法。然而，他们并不认为这种情况会很快发生：预计存款利率将在12月18日及未来两 年内维持在2%不变。在通胀趋稳且欧元区经济经受住全球贸易紧张局势和地缘政治动荡的考验（表现 好于预期）之后，分析师们正在修正他们的预测。施纳贝尔在一次采访中列举了这种韧性——以及政府 大量支出所助力的更光明前景——作为她对市场押注下次利率行动是加息感到"相当安心"的理由之一。 一项指标指向首次加息可能发生在2027年下半年。 另外，英国10月GDP意外收缩0.1%，加之通胀预期从两年高位回落，为英国央行下周重启降息周期提 供有力支撑。疲弱的增长数据及缓和的价格压力正推动市场将降息概率推升至90%。 英国国家统计局 周五公布的数据显示，10月GDP环比下滑0.1%，低于路透调查经济学家预期的0.1%增长。这是英国经 济过去七个月中实现增 ...

与瑞士央行的维稳立场形成鲜明对比的是，美联储此前如期实施25个基点降息，并释放出更为鸽派的政 策信号。美联储主席鲍威尔淡化通胀担忧，明确排除加息可能性，市场普遍预期2026年美联储将继续推 进货币宽松进程，直接导致美元指数承受下行压力，进一步放大了美元兑瑞郎的跌幅。这种政策周期的 错位成为当前汇价走势的核心结构性驱动因素——美联储已进入明确的降息通道，而瑞士央行因利率已 处于0%水平，政策宽松空间受到显著约束，这种不对称格局持续影响着两种货币的相对强弱关系。 通胀层面，瑞士物价形势持续低迷，11月消费者物价指数(CPI)同比涨幅降至0%，较8月的0.2%进一步 回落，主要受酒店住宿、房租及服装等领域价格下行拖累。基于此，瑞士央行下调了中期通胀预期，将 2026年通胀预期从0.5%下调至0.3%，2027年预期从0.7%下调至0.6%，反映出该行对未来物价压力的判 断更趋谨慎。尽管通胀低迷引发市场对瑞士央行进一步宽松的猜测，但结合其对负利率的谨慎态度，短 期政策调整概率较低。 经济增长方面，瑞士第三季度GDP因制药行业出口回调出现收缩，但其他制造业和服务业的温和增长部 分抵消了这一拖累；瑞士央行预计2025年G ...

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon supports Kevin Warsh for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman, suggesting he would be a great leader, while expressing concerns over Kevin Hassett's potential candidacy due to his perceived alignment with the White House's interest in rate cuts [1] Group 1 - Dimon warns that if Hassett is elected, he may quickly lower short-term interest rates to align with President Trump's economic demands [1] - Concerns are raised that Hassett's lack of independence could lead to aggressive rate cuts, potentially igniting inflation expectations and causing long-term interest rates to rise due to bond sell-offs [1] - Since reports emerged in late November about Hassett being a frontrunner, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has increased from 4% to 4.2% [1]

周日，TS Lombard首席美国经济学家Stephen Blitz撰文指出，美联储即将迎来一场巨大的颠覆。随着财 政部与美联储的界限日益模糊，两大机构的资产负债表实际上正在走向"合并"，而财政部长贝森特在这 一新架构中扮演关键角色，成为实质上的"影子联储主席"。 Blitz表示，美联储最新的政策信号表明，其正在重启资产负债表购买操作，计划于1月开始购买400亿美 元的国库券并在2月进一步增加。尽管官方说法是为应对总账户（TGA）在4月的膨胀及管理货币市场 利率，但这一举措的实质是美联储承诺为财政部支出提供融资保障，确保存款机构融资不会出现利率波 动。 这一转变不仅意味着美联储将平抑市场波动，更标志着市场向政府发出的"支出超载"信号将失效。在这 种架构下，未来的政策协调将更加紧密，贝森特将拥有巨大的话语权。随着Kevin Hassett 等潜在继任者 可能进入美联储，一条通往白宫、经由贝森特运作的"直接汇报线"正在形成，这将使得财政部能够主导 融资策略，即通过向短端注入流动性来压低融资成本。 贝森特和特朗普所期望的是廉价的融资成本——即通过淹没短端市场并限制长端发行来实现。美联储宣 布购买短端资产正是为了配合 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, supports Kevin Warsh for the Federal Reserve chairmanship, warning that Kevin Hassett's potential appointment could undermine the Fed's independence and lead to rising long-term borrowing costs [1] Group 1: Dimon's Analysis - Dimon believes Warsh would be a "great chairman" while expressing concerns that Hassett may quickly lower short-term rates to align with President Trump's economic demands [1] - He emphasizes that the Fed can only control short-term rates, while long-term rates are determined by the market, which could react negatively to Hassett's perceived lack of independence [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Since late November, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has risen from 4.0% to 4.2%, indicating that the market is pricing in risks associated with Hassett's candidacy [2] - Concerns about inflation are also rising, as the 5-year forward inflation swap rate has increased by 0.06 percentage points, reaching a one-month high [2] Group 3: Investor Concerns - Senior investors managing a $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market have expressed concerns to Treasury officials regarding Hassett's political ties and their potential impact on the credibility of monetary policy [4] Group 4: Trump's Preferences - President Trump has shown dissatisfaction with current Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not significantly lowering rates and has indicated that loyalty and willingness to cut rates are key criteria for his selection [5] - Hassett, a former White House insider, is viewed as the frontrunner due to his public support for aggressive rate cuts, despite attempts to assert his commitment to Fed independence [6] Group 5: Warsh's Background - Warsh, a former Fed governor and economist at the Hoover Institution, has received backing from Wall Street figures like Dimon, despite being viewed as overly hawkish prior to the 2008 financial crisis [7] - The selection process for the new Fed chair is ongoing, with Trump expected to interview more candidates soon, highlighting the tension between Wall Street's preference for an independent candidate and the White House's inclination towards a loyalist [7]

Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, supports Kevin Warsh for the Federal Reserve chairmanship, believing he would be a "great chairman" and warning against Kevin Hassett's potential influence from the White House, which could undermine the Fed's independence [1][2]. Group 1: Dimon's Analysis - Dimon warns that if Hassett is appointed, he may quickly lower short-term interest rates to align with Trump's economic demands, but the Fed can only control short-term rates while long-term rates are determined by the market [2]. - Concerns arise that aggressive rate cuts under Hassett could ignite inflation expectations, leading to a rise in long-term rates, such as the 10-year Treasury yield, due to investor sell-offs [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Since reports of Hassett's candidacy emerged, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased from 4.0% to 4.2%, indicating market pricing for the associated risks [3]. - There is growing anxiety among bond market traders regarding inflation, as the 5-year forward inflation swap rate has recently risen by 0.06 percentage points, reaching a one-month high [3]. Group 3: Investor Concerns - Senior investors managing a $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market have expressed concerns to Treasury officials about Hassett's political ties to Trump, questioning the potential impact on the credibility of monetary policy [5]. Group 4: Selection Process - Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with current Fed Chair Jay Powell's policies and has indicated that loyalty and willingness to cut rates are key criteria for his selection of a new chair [7]. - The selection process, led by incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bansen, continues, with Trump expected to interview more candidates soon [9].

Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, supports Kevin Warsh for the position of Federal Reserve Chair, warning that Kevin Hassett may be too compliant with the White House's interest rate reduction desires, potentially harming the Fed's independence and leading to increased long-term borrowing costs [2][3]. Group 1: Dimon's Analysis - Dimon argues that if Hassett is elected, he is likely to quickly lower short-term interest rates to align with President Trump's economic demands, but the Fed can only control short-term rates while long-term rates are determined by the market [4]. - Concerns arise that aggressive rate cuts under Hassett could ignite inflation expectations, causing long-term rates, such as the 10-year Treasury yield, to rise due to investor sell-offs [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Since media reports in late November indicated Hassett as a frontrunner, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased from 4.0% to 4.2%, reflecting market pricing of the associated risks [5]. - There is growing anxiety among bond market traders regarding inflation, as indicated by a rise in the 5-year forward inflation swap rate, which recently increased by 0.06 percentage points to a one-month high [5]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - Concerns about Hassett's political ties have been voiced by senior investors managing a $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market, questioning his close alignment with Trump and its potential impact on the credibility of monetary policy [7]. - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's reluctance to implement significant rate cuts, emphasizing loyalty and willingness to lower rates as key criteria for his selection [8]. Group 4: Candidate Profiles - Kevin Hassett is viewed as a top contender, having publicly supported aggressive rate cuts and previously suggested that the reduction should be double the current level, although he claims to uphold central bank independence [10]. - Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and economist at the Hoover Institution, has received backing from Wall Street figures like Dimon, despite his past criticisms of the Fed and being perceived as overly hawkish before the 2008 financial crisis [10].

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates as expected and initiated a technical expansion of its balance sheet, with rate cuts anticipated to continue into 2026[1] - The market expects the Bank of Japan to raise rates by 25 basis points in December, but the impact on the market is expected to be limited[1] Market Performance - Emerging market stock indices rose by 1.0%, while developed market indices fell by 0.3% during the week of December 4-12, 2025[4] - Gold prices increased by 2.2%, and copper prices rose by 0.8%, while the S&P-Goldman commodity index fell by 2.1%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 4.19%[4] Inflation and Confidence Indicators - The 5-year inflation expectation rose by 2 basis points to 2.32%, while the 10-year expectation remained stable at 2.26%[9] - The U.S. Sentix investor confidence index increased to 9.7 from 4.0 in the previous month[9] European Economic Indicators - The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index improved to -6.2 from -7.4[17] - Long-term bond yields in the Eurozone have risen, with the 30-year and 10-year yields increasing by 13 basis points and 15 basis points, respectively[17] Policy Outlook - The European Central Bank is unlikely to adjust interest rates in the short term, as the economy is in a relatively good position[19] - The Bank of Japan's potential rate hike is already priced in, with the yen showing a slight appreciation recently[20]

荷兰合作银行认为由于中期选举的政治压力以及美联储人事格局的变动，美联储在2026年的降息幅度或将超出市场预 期。 12月12日，荷兰合作银行资深策略师Philip Marey指出，为了配合在美国中期选举前刺激经济，美联储预计将在2026年11 月前将利率降至中性水平甚至更低，联邦基金利率目标区间在2026年9月达到2.75%-3.00%。而当前为3.50%-3.75%。 新任主席将于2026年6月17-18日首次主持FOMC会议，荷兰合作银行预计该次会议将宣布降息，以确立新主席对美国白 宫的忠诚度。 | FOMC meeting | Target range (%) | Size of change (bps) | | --- | --- | --- | | January 27-28 | 3.50-3.75 | 0 | | March 17-18 | 3.25-3.50 | -25 | | April 28-29 | 3.25-3.50 | 0 | | June 16-17 | 3.00-3.25 | -25 | | July 28-29 | 3.00-3.25 | 0 | | September 15-1 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 0.25% and initiate a $40 billion bond purchase within 30 days marks the beginning of a significant expansion of its balance sheet, indicating that the U.S. economy is entering a "crisis moment" again [4] - The expansion of the balance sheet is driven by an imbalance in the U.S. Treasury market and unsustainable debt interest payments, with new Treasury issuance expected to reach $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion annually and interest payments around $1.5 trillion [5] - The Federal Reserve's actions are seen as a form of debt monetization, which may appear to solve fiscal crises but ultimately risks undermining the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [6] Group 2 - The current monetary policy is expected to lead to a resurgence of inflation, with the increase in money supply likely to erode the purchasing power of the dollar over time [6] - The pricing structure of gold is undergoing a fundamental change, with $4,000 per ounce potentially becoming a new support level, driven by the Fed's bond purchases and rising inflation expectations [7] - Investment strategies are shifting towards gold stocks and industrial metals, as rising gold prices are expected to significantly boost profits for mining companies, while metals like silver, copper, and tin are anticipated to benefit from both inflation and their intrinsic value [8]