Group 1: Nuclear Power Industry - The State Council approved the construction of 10 nuclear power units, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook for the nuclear power sector in China [2][4][6] - From 2022 to 2025, China has consistently approved at least 10 nuclear power units annually, with a total of 44 units under construction as of April 2025, representing a significant increase in installed capacity [3][4] - Nuclear power is recognized as a clean and stable baseload energy source, with high utilization hours and relatively stable electricity prices, which are expected to drive revenue and profit growth for related companies [4][5][6] Group 2: ASEAN Economic Cooperation - The visit of President Xi Jinping to ASEAN countries marks a significant moment for deepening cooperation in trade, investment, and industry, contributing positively to regional and global economic development [8][9] - China and ASEAN are focusing on high-end manufacturing, mineral resource development, infrastructure cooperation, and agricultural consumption, aiming for mutual benefits and deeper integration of industrial chains [10][9] - The cooperation framework includes enhancing policy coordination, leveraging complementary advantages in technology and market, and improving trade and investment facilitation to stimulate regional growth [10][9] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Recent signals from the U.S. government regarding easing trade tensions with China have led to a temporary decline in gold prices, but medium-term prospects for gold prices remain bullish due to ongoing geopolitical risks and potential economic downturns in the U.S. [13][15] - Global gold ETF holdings and central bank purchases, particularly from emerging markets, indicate significant room for further accumulation of gold, supporting price increases [15][13] - The copper and aluminum sectors are expected to rebound due to favorable macroeconomic policies and a shift in market sentiment following the easing of trade tensions [15][16] Group 4: Agricultural Sector - He Feng Co. - He Feng Co. reported a significant turnaround in profitability for 2024, with a net profit of 3.42 billion yuan, compared to a loss in the previous year, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements [18][19] - The company’s feed business faced challenges with a decline in sales volume and price, but the meat and poultry segments showed resilience and growth potential [19][20] - The company plans to achieve over 10% growth in feed sales in 2025, focusing on strategic transformations across product, channel, and management aspects [19][22] Group 5: Medical Devices - Yuyue Medical - Yuyue Medical's revenue for 2024 decreased by 5.09%, but the company is focusing on strategic investments to accelerate international expansion, particularly in the blood glucose management sector [24][25] - The Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) technology is identified as a key growth driver, with new products expected to significantly increase market penetration [27][29] - The company has made a strategic investment in Inogen to enhance its presence in the U.S. and European markets, indicating a commitment to long-term growth and shareholder returns [28][29]

Group 1 - China has suspended the purchase of U.S. soybeans and corn since mid-January, opting instead to sign contracts for at least 2.4 million tons of Brazilian soybeans in early April, significantly impacting the U.S.-China trade dynamics [1] - The cost competitiveness of U.S. soybeans has diminished due to an 84% tariff imposed by China, making U.S. soybeans twice as expensive as Brazilian soybeans, which are priced at 2.5 yuan per pound [1][3] - Brazil has become China's largest soybean supplier, with projected imports of 75 million tons from Brazil and only 23 million tons from the U.S. in 2024, reflecting a shift in China's agricultural import strategy [3][5] Group 2 - U.S. farmers are feeling the pressure from this shift, with the American Soybean Association expressing concerns over potential significant losses, as the U.S. soybean exports accounted for a substantial portion of the $197.4 billion in agricultural exports in 2022 [5] - The U.S. government's tariff policies are negatively affecting agricultural exports, creating uncertainty that deters international business relationships [5][7] - China's proactive measures in response to U.S. tariffs have positioned it favorably in the global market, with a reported GDP growth of 5.4% in the first quarter and increased international interest in trade with China [5][7]

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美国财政部长贝森特参加ABC节目ABC 此前，特朗普执意挑起对华关税战，在中方接连反制后，他近期又不断"眨眼"，单方面炒作所谓"谈判"的 话题，为中美贸易谈判虚空造势。究其根本，不过是企图借此掩盖自身愈发被动的不利局面。 上周，接连两天，中方已辟谣指出，所谓"磋商谈判"是假消息。 中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆4月24日曾表示，这些都是假消息。据我了解，中美双方并没有就关税问题进行 磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。4月25日，郭嘉昆再度回应称："昨天我和商务部的同事已经明确回答了 这个问题。中美双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，美方不要混淆视听。" 而当被ABC问及中方否认美方所谓的"谈判"时，贝森特则这样找补声称："我认为，他们（的表态）是面 向不同受众所采取的策略。" 就在贝森特给特朗普"拆台"的同一天，美国农业部部长布鲁克·罗林斯（Brooke Rollins）却又在美国有线电 视新闻网（CNN）的《国情咨文》（State of the Union）节目中受访宣称："我们每天都在与中国，以及其 他99个甚至100个参与谈判的国家进行对话。"不过，她并没有详细说明情况。 观察者网消息，美方先是挑起关税战砸中自己的 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the potential reduction of tariffs on China by the Trump administration, which may exceed 50%, contingent on China's response to U.S. tariffs [1] - The trade war initiated by the U.S. is emphasized, with a call for dialogue based on equality and mutual respect [1] - Analysts suggest that any tariff reduction would be largely symbolic and unlikely to change the fundamental trade dynamics between the U.S. and China [3] Group 2 - Trump's consideration to lower tariffs is seen as a strategy to boost the U.S. stock market and appease key supporters in agriculture and automotive sectors [3] - The U.S. government faces significant pressure, with rising consumer prices and potential supply chain issues highlighted by retail giants like Walmart [3] - Trump's need to maintain a favorable public image and demonstrate success in negotiations is noted as a driving factor behind the tariff discussions [5] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has acknowledged the unsustainability of the trade war, indicating a need for both nations to find ways to ease tensions [5] - A comprehensive restructuring plan for the U.S. State Department is underway, aiming to implement Trump's "America First" policy, which includes a 15% reduction in staff and the elimination of 132 offices [5][7] - The restructuring has received mixed reactions domestically, with Republican support and Democratic criticism regarding its potential impact on U.S. global influence [7]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 28 日 热点品种 沥青： 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升 2.0 个百分点至 30.7%，较去年同期高了 7.1 个百分点，沥青开工率继续回升，升至近年同期中性偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据， 5 月份预计排产 231.8 万吨，环比增加 2.9 万吨，增幅为 1.3%，同比增加 3 万 吨，增幅为 1.3%。上周沥青下游开工率环比提升，其中道路沥青开工环比增加 4.5 个百分点至 24.5%，开工率提升较快，但仍处于偏低水平。上周炼厂复产叠 加节前备货，沥青出货量增加明显，全国出货量环比增加 42.42%至 29.11 万吨， 升至中性偏低位。沥青炼厂库存存货比上周环比略有下降，仍处于近年来同期的 最低位，南方有降雨间歇影响，沥青实际需求仍有待恢复。4 月 16 日，美国财政 部制裁购买伊朗原油的山东胜星化工，表示要将伊朗的非法石油出口降至零。近 期美国加大对伊朗的制裁，美伊第三轮间接会谈结束，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示， 双方仍存在分歧。但双方承诺会 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent developments in the non-ferrous metals industry, including advancements in AI tools by ByteDance and Meituan, indicating a growing demand for AI-driven solutions in various sectors [1] - The market performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows a positive trend, with the SW non-ferrous metals industry index increasing by 1.50% [2] - Key metal prices have shown varied movements, with copper, aluminum, and zinc prices rising, while some rare earth elements have decreased [3] Market Performance - As of April 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56% to 3295.06 points, and the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.38% to 3786.99 points [2] - The SW non-ferrous metals industry index reached 4641 points, reflecting a 1.50% increase [2] - Among the five sub-industries in non-ferrous metals, industrial metals and energy metals saw increases of 2.35% and 2.93%, respectively, while precious metals decreased by 2.52% [2] Key Metal Prices - The prices for key metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are as follows: copper at 77,440 CNY/ton (+1.91%), aluminum at 20,030 CNY/ton (+1.68%), zinc at 22,750 CNY/ton (+3.34%), lead at 16,945 CNY/ton (+0.68%), nickel at 125,800 CNY/ton (+0.15%), and tin at 262,840 CNY/ton (+2.39%) [3] - On the London Metal Exchange, copper, aluminum, and zinc prices also increased, with copper at 9,360 USD/ton (+1.87%) and aluminum at 2,438 USD/ton (+3.04%) [3] - Gold and silver prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 787.20 CNY/gram (+0.22%) and 8,280 CNY/kilogram (+1.79%), respectively [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China may enhance market risk appetite, leading to potential rebounds in industrial metal stocks [4][5] - Specific recommendations include investing in gold-related A-shares such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold Mining, and Hunan Gold, as well as industrial metal leaders like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the approaching May Day holiday, market risk - aversion sentiment is rising. Trump's tariff policy is at a dead - end, and the expectations of domestic and overseas interest rate cuts have been dashed. It is recommended to take profits on short - term copper long positions [6]. - In the short term, gradually take profits on previous copper long positions, and hold light positions or be out of the market during the holiday. In the long run, as Sino - US competition enters a new stage and the global copper mine shortage is difficult to ease, there is confidence in the long - term upward trend of copper prices [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro Economy - **US Economic Data and Policy Expectations**: In April, the US PMI reached a 16 - month low (composite PMI 51.2), and the consumer confidence index plunged to 50.8. Due to Trump's compromise and the dovish stance of Fed officials, the probability of a June interest rate cut increased from 60% to 65% [11]. - **Trump's Tariff Policy Changes**: Trump first publicly stated his friendliness towards China, admitted that the 145% tariff was too high, and announced a tax cut decision. The Trump administration plans to significantly reduce the current 145% tariff on Chinese goods to the 50% - 65% range, with direct tax cuts and tiered tariff options. The tiered tariff plan has a 5 - year transition period [12]. - **China's Response to US Tariffs**: China denied negotiations on tariffs, imposed a 125% retaliatory tariff on the US, covered multiple fields, initiated an industrial competitiveness investigation, and sued the US at the WTO. China has also adjusted imports in various industries in response to tariff impacts [13][14]. - **Domestic Economic Policy**: The Politburo meeting emphasized stability. The LPR rate has remained unchanged for six consecutive months, and the central bank may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates after the Fed's possible June rate cut [6][22]. 3.2盘面情况 - **Price Movements**: This week, the overall center of copper prices moved up. The main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.71% compared to last Friday. The price difference between COMEX and LME copper widened to $1303/ton [26]. - **Market Structure**: As of April 25, the spot - to - futures spread of Yangtze River non - ferrous copper was 760 yuan/ton. Shanghai copper maintained a Back structure, while overseas COMEX copper maintained a contango structure. The latest LME copper spot premium was $6.43/ton, and the far - month premium was $27/ton. Domestic electrolytic copper premiums also showed certain levels [29][33]. - **Investment and Trading Data**: The net long positions of LME copper investment funds increased by 5.21% month - on - month, while the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX copper decreased by 19.65% month - on - month. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai copper expanded to 110,000 lots, and the open interest decreased to 165,900 lots [37][41]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **Supply Side** - **Copper Concentrate**: Global copper concentrate production is expected to reach 23.35 million tons in 2025, with a growth rate of 2.08%. China's copper concentrate self - sufficiency rate is about 21.31%. Recently, copper concentrate supply disturbances have increased, and port inventories have decreased. The processing fees for copper concentrates have reached new lows [47][50][53]. - **Refined Copper**: Global refined copper production is expected to reach 27.47 million tons in 2025, with a growth rate of 3.47%. In March 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1221 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6.04% and a year - on - year increase of 12.27%. Some overseas smelters have shut down [64][67]. - **Scrap Copper**: The price difference between refined and scrap copper has widened, and the substitution effect of scrap copper is emerging. However, due to the impact of Sino - US tariffs, the supply of scrap copper from the US has decreased, and the overall market supply is tight [70]. - **Demand Side** - **Power Sector**: From January to March, grid project investment reached 95.6 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 24.8%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in the first three months reached 59.71GW, with a year - on - year increase of 30.05% [80]. - **Automobile Sector**: Driven by policies, the demand for automobiles has been further released. In the week of April 20, the retail and wholesale volume of passenger cars was 113,962, with a year - on - year increase of 25.84% [77]. - **Home Appliance Sector**: Stimulated by the "Golden March and Silver April" and the trade - in policy, the demand for home appliances has exceeded expectations. The scheduled production of air conditioners from April to June has a year - on - year growth rate of 9.1%, 13.0%, and 15.9% respectively [83]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - **Macro Environment**: Trump released signals of tariff easing, and Fed officials took a dovish stance, increasing the probability of a June interest rate cut. The LPR rate in China has remained unchanged for six consecutive months, and the market risk - aversion sentiment will rise during the upcoming May Day holiday [96]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances continue, and copper concentrate processing fees reach new lows. Demand shows resilience, but due to copper price fluctuations and US tariff policies, enterprise order expectations are cautious. Domestic electrolytic copper inventories have been decreasing for 8 consecutive weeks [96]. - **Suggestions**: In the short term, take profits on previous copper long positions, and hold light positions or be out of the market during the holiday. In the long run, be confident in the upward trend of copper prices [96].

Group 1 - The trade war initiated by Trump is causing significant economic pressure on American companies, particularly Boeing, which has already faced the return of a Boeing 737 Max aircraft by a Chinese airline, indicating potential further losses in the Chinese market [1][3] - The market price of a new Boeing 737 Max is approximately $55 million, and the more aircraft returned, the greater the economic strain on Boeing, which is already struggling due to previous safety incidents and strikes [1][3] - Boeing is not only a commercial aircraft manufacturer but also a key player in the U.S. military-industrial complex, with its involvement in the design and production of the so-called "sixth-generation fighter" announced by Trump [3] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing significant declines, attributed to Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which has raised concerns about the future direction of the Fed [3][5] - Trump's unconventional approach, including the potential replacement of the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, is seen as a drastic measure that could further destabilize the economy amid the ongoing trade conflict with China [5][7] - Powell has publicly stated his commitment to not resign and his reluctance to lower interest rates, indicating a potential clash between the Federal Reserve's independence and Trump's economic strategies [7]

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