我国通常会在重大自然资源的发现和勘探进展中与国际市场价格紧密联系。最近，我国在山东莱州北部的渤海海域宣布发现了亚洲最大的海底金矿，这一消 息引起了广泛关注，尤其是因为全球金融市场的不确定性不断增加，黄金作为避险资产的需求急剧上升，价格也随之大幅飙升。这一发现的时机无疑让人关 注。 目前，我国对这个金矿的公开信息，可能与2026年全球金融体系的不确定性增加有关系。当前，美国国债已经突破了38万亿美元，而美国每年支付的国债利 息已超过1万亿美元，长期下去这种情况很难持续；与此同时，美国股市中的AI泡沫已接近顶点，AI相关股票吸引了超过20万亿美元的资金，而2026年这一 泡沫是否会破裂，谁也无法预测。日本央行决定加息，而日本经济面临高通胀、低增长的困境，2025年可能会出现负增长，且其政府负债率已经超过 230%。这些因素都可能引发国际金融市场的动荡。作为美国的铁杆盟友，欧盟同样面临经济停滞、能源价格上涨和工业企业外迁等问题。全球不确定性的 增加，导致黄金价格在过去一年半时间里已经翻了一番。 此外，这个金矿位于中国胶东半岛近海，距离美日韩军机和军舰频繁巡航的敏感海域并不远。历史上，日本对东海及黄海大陆架的资源高度 ...

随着美元融资利率（4.75%）持续高于人民币融资利率（约 2%），企业基于降低融资成本的自然选择，正加速使人民币 从国际贸易结算货币与储备货币，向全球信贷融资货币进阶。 但与此同时，这条进阶之路上，充满挑战。 作者：陈植 封图：图虫创意 刚从江苏分行回到上海，胡国强又马不停蹄地赶赴浙江分行。 作为一家股份制银行跨境金融部的负责人，10月份他接到一项新工作——从多个分行里尽快挑选 一批具有潜力的员工担任环球客户经理，围绕出海企业的跨境贸易融资、海外建厂信贷等需求，提 供一站式专人负责的本外币一体化、境内外一体化和商投行一体化综合金融服务。 精通跨境人民币业务的员工，成为他的首选。 在一家城商行上海分行担任跨境业务部主管的沈涛向记者透露，其所在的银行也在扩充贸易融资团 队，以响应境外人民币信贷需求。 他们忙碌的背后，是一个正在发生的变化：央行发布的一项金融数据显示，截至2025年10月底， 金融机构境外人民币贷款约为2.5万亿元，同比增长37.5%，较境内人民币贷款增速高出约31个百 分点。 在胡国强看来，境外人民币贷款迎来新的增长点，由三重力量推动：人民币跨境贸易融资业务火热 与企业海外投资建厂使得人民币贷款需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 22nd China International Financial Forum highlighted the development of offshore finance in China, emphasizing the impact of geopolitical factors, interest rate differentials, and the internationalization of the RMB on the future of offshore finance [1][5]. Group 1: Geopolitical Influence - Geopolitical factors are influencing the demand for China's offshore finance, with China's global economic and political status being a key driver [3][7]. - The current geopolitical climate may reduce the willingness of the US and its allies to invest in China, which is a negative aspect, while it could also encourage the use of RMB over USD by countries closely engaged with China, presenting a historical opportunity for offshore RMB [3][7]. Group 2: Interest Rate Differentials - The current interest rate differential between China and the US stands at 2.2%, which is expected to persist for 2-3 years even if the Federal Reserve lowers rates [4][8]. - The ongoing interest rate differential is likely to accelerate China's outbound investment as capital shifts from the USD system to the RMB system [4][8]. Group 3: RMB Internationalization - The internationalization of the RMB is transitioning from a trade settlement currency to an investment currency, with offshore markets playing a significant role in areas like the Belt and Road Initiative and commodity trade [4][8]. - There is an expectation that the proportion of cross-border RMB transactions will increase, providing new development opportunities for Shanghai's free trade offshore bonds [4][8]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - The Chinese government is focused on enhancing the Shanghai International Financial Center and reinforcing Hong Kong's status as a global financial hub, which will provide a foundational framework for offshore finance development [9]. - Key policy suggestions include promoting institutional innovation, deepening RMB internationalization, enhancing international cooperation, leveraging technology for efficiency and security, establishing a multi-layered risk prevention system, and fostering collaboration between offshore and onshore markets for optimal resource allocation [9].

2022年9月底至2025年6月底，美元指数已经由114.1下降至96.9，降幅为15.1%。考虑到上一轮美联储加息周期已经结束，且美联储从2024年9月起已经步 入降息周期，笔者认为，我们基本上可以确定，从2022年9月底起至今，美元指数大概率已经步入新的一轮长周期，且美元指数的下行期可能持续较长时 间，后续跌幅也会相当显著。 注：本文第一部分发表于《财经》杂志，2025年7月8日。第二部分发表于《中国外汇》，2025年第24期。转载请注明出处。 一、美元指数大概率步入较长下行期 1971年至今，美元指数大致走出了三个先下降、后上升的长周期（图1）。 第一个周期的下降期为1971年年初至1978年10月底，美元指数由120.5下降至82.1，降幅为31.9%；上升期为1978年10月底至1985年2月底，美元指数由82.1 上升至164.7，升幅为100.6%。第二个周期的下降期为1985年2月底至1992年9月初，美元指数由164.7下降至78.3，降幅为52.5%；上升期为1992年9月初至 2001年7月初，美元指数由78.3上升至120.9，升幅为54.4%。第三个周期的下降期为2001年7月初至2 ...

好好读书，用书本的厚度，去丰富自己的生活、垫高自己的人生。中国商报特别栏目"阅"见商道来了，每期挑选一部书籍伴您航行商海。 据中国人民银行官网消息，中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功胜近日主持召开党委会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，落实全国金融系统工作会议要 求，研究部署贯彻落实举措。 会议强调，稳步推进金融高水平开放，维护国家金融安全。践行全球治理倡议，积极参与和推进全球金融治理改革完善。务实开展金融外交和多双边货币 金融合作。 推进人民币国际化。持续建设和发展多渠道、广覆盖的人民币跨境支付体系。稳步发展数字人民币。 "看懂货币的历史，才真正懂得经济和金融的历史。" 自古以来，货币在贸易、社会和国家命运中发挥着核心作用。从贝壳到硬币，从以物易物到现代数字货币交易，货币史是一个复杂的传奇，随着人类发展 而演变。研究货币史，是深入了解金融、经济发展一个非常好的方式。 这本书以时间为序，用漫画的形式虚拟了比特币创始人的形象，让这个金融领域的神秘人带领我们回到3万年前，从我们的智人祖先开始讲述这段不可思 议的历史。书中生动讲述了货币的起源及其演变，展示了各种货币是如何出现的，又是如何推动贸易、经济、政治发展的。 书 ...

te Be the 8 记者 陈植 刚从江苏分行回到上海，胡国强又马不停蹄地赶赴浙江分行。 作为一家股份制银行跨境金融部的负责人，10月份他接到一项新工作——从多个分行里尽快挑选一批具有潜力的员工担任环球客户经理，围绕出海企业的跨 境贸易融资、海外建厂信贷等需求，提供一站式专人负责的本外币一体化、境内外一体化和商投行一体化综合金融服务。 精通跨境人民币业务的员工，成为他的首选。 在一家城商行上海分行担任跨境业务部主管的沈涛向记者透露，其所在的银行也在扩充贸易融资团队，以响应境外人民币信贷需求。 他们忙碌的背后，是一个正在发生的变化：央行发布的一项金融数据显示，截至2025年10月底，金融机构境外人民币贷款约为2.5万亿元，同比增长37.5%， 较境内人民币贷款增速高出约31个百分点。 在胡国强看来，境外人民币贷款迎来新的增长点，由三重力量推动：人民币跨境贸易融资业务火热与企业海外投资建厂使得人民币贷款需求旺盛，以及不少 东盟、非洲地区的当地企业开始引入中长期人民币贷款作为流动性管理工具。 沈涛发现，人民币跨境贸易融资对境外人民币贷款高增长的贡献度尤其巨大。今年以来，他所在分行的人民币跨境贸易融资规模同比增速超 ...

景建国表示，《中国离岸金融指数报告（2024—2025）》不仅是一份量化成果的发布，更是一幅中国离 岸金融高质量发展画卷的徐徐展开。 他提到，中国离岸金融指数，绝非简单的数字的堆砌，而是衡量我国金融开放深度与全球竞争力的"晴 雨表"，是服务国家战略、衔接海南封关部署的"指南针"，更是引领中国金融迈向世界舞台中央的"金钥 匙"，其时代价值可从四重维度深刻解读。 （一）金融强国的"压舱石"与"风向标"：以指数韧性筑牢强国根基。离岸金融是金融强国"五篇大文 章"中极具活力的篇章。2024年指数攀升至106.50点，实现0.31%的稳健增长，这印证了我国离岸金融市 场的强韧性，为金融强国建设筑牢了坚实的市场根基。更重要的是，指数清晰揭示出传统业务萎缩、离 在岸融合不足等结构性短板，为靶向破解金融体系痛点提供了量化依据，让政策施策告别"大水漫灌"， 实现"精准滴灌"。 专题：第二十二届中国国际金融论坛 12月19日-20日，"第二十二届中国国际金融论坛"在上海举行，主题为：数字经济时代的智能金融生态 构建。上海首席经济学家金融发展中心离岸金融研究所所长景建国出席并演讲。 12月19日-20日，"第二十二届中国国际金融论 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent developments in the global iron ore market indicate a significant shift in power dynamics, with China moving from a position of dependency to one of influence and negotiation strength in both supply and currency settlement [1][4][16]. Group 1: Market Developments - The first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou mine in Guinea, heavily invested in by Chinese companies, has set sail, with expectations to reach Chinese ports by mid-January [1]. - The Simandou mine is projected to reach an annual production capacity of 120 million tons, with 60 million tons expected by 2026, challenging the dominance of Brazilian and Australian suppliers [1][13]. Group 2: Currency Settlement Changes - BHP, an Australian mining giant, announced that starting from Q4 2025, 30% of its iron ore trade with China will be settled in Renminbi, marking a significant shift in currency dynamics [4][15]. - This change in currency settlement is expected to save Chinese steel mills approximately $8 per ton in exchange costs, leading to an annual savings of around $9 billion [15]. Group 3: Historical Context and Strategic Shifts - Historically, China has been the largest importer of iron ore since 2003, with imports expected to reach 1.237 billion tons in 2024, spending $130 billion, while being heavily reliant on Australian suppliers [7][9]. - The establishment of the China Mineral Resources Group in 2022 has allowed for the consolidation of procurement, enhancing China's negotiating power as the largest buyer [11][18]. Group 4: Future Implications - The launch of the Simandou mine and the adoption of Renminbi for settlements signify a potential reshaping of the global iron ore market, with China gaining alternative supply sources and some control over pricing mechanisms [13][16]. - As the Simandou mine's capacity is fully realized, it is expected to significantly reduce Australia's leverage over China, altering the competitive landscape of iron ore trade [13][18].

Core Viewpoint - China's holdings of US Treasury bonds have dropped to $688.7 billion as of October, marking a significant decline and the lowest level since October 2008, reflecting a broader trend of global divergence among major bondholders [1][3][5] Group 1: China's Treasury Bond Holdings - In October 2025, China reduced its US Treasury bond holdings by $11.8 billion, falling below the psychological threshold of $700 billion [3] - Since April 2022, China's Treasury bond holdings have been on a downward trajectory, with a cumulative reduction of over $280 billion from 2022 to 2024 [3][5] - The reduction in holdings is contrasted by Japan's increase to $1.2 trillion, indicating a divergence in strategies among major bondholders [3][5] Group 2: Global Bondholder Trends - Overall foreign holdings of US Treasury bonds have decreased to $9.243 trillion, marking a second consecutive month of decline, influenced by the US government shutdown [5] - Japan has been the largest buyer of US Treasury bonds, increasing its holdings for ten consecutive months, while Canada has significantly reduced its holdings [3][5] - The collective reduction among various countries highlights a growing trust crisis in the US dollar's dominance [1][5] Group 3: China's Gold Reserves and Strategy - China's gold reserves reached 74.12 million ounces by the end of October 2025, reflecting a continuous increase over 13 months, indicating a strategic shift towards diversifying foreign exchange reserves [5][7] - The increase in gold holdings is seen as a hedge against the risks associated with US dollar assets, especially following the freezing of Russian foreign reserves [5][7] - The current gold holdings represent only 7.3% of China's official reserves, suggesting room for further increases in gold investments [7] Group 4: US Debt and Economic Context - The total US federal debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 123%, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [9][15] - The US government is projected to face a budget deficit exceeding $2 trillion in 2025, necessitating reliance on foreign buyers for debt issuance [11][15] - The inefficiency of the US debt-driven economic model is highlighted, with each additional dollar of debt only generating $0.70 in economic growth [15] Group 5: Implications for Currency and International Relations - The decline in confidence in the US dollar is prompting a shift towards the internationalization of the renminbi, with increased cross-border transactions and currency swap agreements [11][13] - The global central banks' increasing gold purchases signal a potential shift away from dollar reliance, with 95% of surveyed central banks indicating plans to continue increasing gold reserves [13] - The ongoing trends suggest a potential weakening of the dollar's dominance in global finance, creating opportunities for alternative currencies [13]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full closure operation on December 18, which symbolizes a significant step in China's reform and opening-up policy initiated 47 years ago [2] - The term "closure" actually refers to further opening, as Hainan will be treated as a "special area" under the customs supervision framework, allowing for a unique operational model for trade and logistics [2][4] - The operational strategy is summarized in 12 words: "open at the first line, control at the second line, and freedom within the island" [4] Group 2 - The first line refers to the customs ports connecting Hainan with foreign countries, aiming to create a highly open trade channel for efficient entry of foreign goods and capital [4] - The second line indicates customs control between Hainan and other domestic regions, ensuring that goods entering other parts of China from Hainan are subject to national laws and tariffs to prevent illegal activities [4] - "Freedom within the island" means that production factors such as goods, capital, personnel, and information can flow freely and be optimized within the Hainan Free Trade Port [4] Group 3 - This initiative aims to promote the integration of domestic and international trade in China, with Hainan positioned as a model for seamless trade operations [6] - The goal is to achieve a strategic integration of domestic and international trade by 2030, with Hainan serving as a key player in this transformation [6] - Hainan's unique advantages in trade are expected to attract numerous domestic trading companies, enhancing its role in the global trade system [6] Group 4 - The initiative is also focused on increasing the share of service trade in China and establishing Hainan as a bridge for economic exchanges with Southeast Asia and the mainland [8] - A critical aspect is the promotion of RMB internationalization, with Hainan exploring mechanisms for efficient cross-border RMB flow to support the Belt and Road Initiative [8] - Establishing a robust financial return system in Hainan could provide significant economic benefits and strategic value for China [8] Group 5 - For ordinary citizens, the initiative introduces significant tax benefits, including a zero tariff on 74% of goods, increasing the number of duty-free items from 1,900 to over 6,600 [10] - Individuals can enjoy an annual duty-free allowance of 100,000 yuan, making it easier to purchase imported goods [10] - For investors and entrepreneurs, Hainan offers a capped personal income tax rate of 15%, significantly lower than the mainland's maximum of 45%, and attractive corporate tax rates [10]