Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the inflation trends in China, specifically focusing on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for July 2023, highlighting the challenges faced by the economy and their implications for stock trading strategies [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - In July, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while PPI fell by 4.4%, both figures being below market expectations, indicating challenges in economic recovery [1]. - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 9.5% year-on-year drop in pork prices, which offset the impact of rising fuel prices due to international crude oil increases. However, service consumption in areas such as education, tourism, and healthcare remained active, with service CPI rising by 0.5% [1][3]. - PPI was affected by weak demand and uncertainties surrounding tariffs, leading to declines across upstream, raw materials, and downstream industries. However, the "anti-involution" policy has improved competition in industries like coal and steel, resulting in a narrowing of the month-on-month decline [1][3]. - Future inflation dynamics in China are expected to shift from goods to services, with new pricing laws expanding low-price clearance to the service sector, which is anticipated to provide momentum for overall price recovery [4][5]. Additional Important Content - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to support a mild recovery in PPI, but the impact may be limited due to weak demand-side stimulus. Additionally, uncertainties from new tariffs and trade restrictions from the U.S. may constrain inflation recovery [5]. - Short-term projections indicate that PPI is unlikely to return to positive territory, while CPI may turn positive sooner [5].

新华财经北京8月11日电（王菁）债市周一（8月11日）全线回调，税收调整扰动逐渐降温过后，市场开 始收益率成本适度回升预期，国债期货集体收跌，超长端走弱态势更显著，银行间现券收益率普遍回升 2BPs左右；公开市场单日净回笼4328亿元，资金利率走势小幅分化。 机构认为，8月为政府债净供给大月，流动性对冲正当其时，而税收调整之后明显利空新券定价，保障 发行成本的重要性更加凸显，因此后续或有货币配合的支持。关注8月央行是否恢复买债，或已具备一 定条件。 【行情跟踪】 银行间主要利率债收益率午后升幅扩大，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率上行3.1BPs报 1.9520%，10年期国开债"25国开10"收益率上行3.2BPs报1.8220%，10年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率上 行2.65BPs报1.7175%。 中证转债指数收盘上涨0.67%，报470.91点，成交金额818.93亿元。海泰转债、欧通转债、荣泰转债、 塞力转债、大元转债涨幅居前，分别涨20.00%、15.21%、15.04%、12.46%、12.35%。信测转债、中装 转2、高测转债、松霖转债、利扬转债跌幅居前，分别跌9.27%、4. ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating a shift from decline to growth, while the year-on-year change remained flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with the growth rate expanding for three consecutive months [2][4] - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by rising prices in services and industrial consumer goods, with service prices up 0.6% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI increase [2][3] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a potential improvement in supply-demand relationships in certain industries [3][4] - The year-on-year PPI fell by 3.6%, but macroeconomic policies and industry upgrades are contributing to positive price changes in some sectors [4][5] - The ongoing expansion of domestic demand and the implementation of consumption-boosting policies are expected to support price stability and gradual recovery in the second half of the year [5][6]

Group 1: Inflation Trends - July CPI year-on-year growth was 0%, while core CPI growth was 0.8%, compared to previous values of 0.1% and 0.7% respectively[5] - Food prices are expected to exert downward pressure on CPI, with July food CPI at -1.6%[5] - The core CPI is anticipated to continue rising due to policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and improving living standards[5] Group 2: Policy Impact - Policies promoting consumption are expected to support high-end consumer goods and high-tech industries, maintaining elevated price indices[5] - The construction of a unified market and enhanced competition review is projected to help traditional and emerging industries recover prices[5] - The "anti-involution" policies are broadening their impact across various sectors, leading to positive changes in PPI, especially in technology and domestic demand-driven sectors[5] Group 3: PPI Performance - July PPI for certain sectors like arts and crafts, sports equipment, and nutritional food manufacturing showed year-on-year growth of at least 1.3%[5] - However, PPI in the mining sector remains under pressure, with July mining PPI at -14%[5] - External trade environment deterioration is causing PPI declines in key export sectors, with July PPI for general equipment manufacturing at -1.6%[5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In July, the year-on-year CPI remained flat, and the month-on-month decline of PPI narrowed. The CPI showed characteristics such as service consumption offsetting the decline in food prices, lagging energy transmission, and weak recovery of industrial products. The PPI presented different trends in traditional and new industries, with policy support having varying effects. Attention should be paid to risks such as the impact of weak real - estate investment on building materials demand and global trade frictions on high - tech product prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 6 months CPI and PPI Situation - **PPI**: In July 2025, the year - on - year PPI decreased by 3.6% (the same as in June), and the month - on - month decline narrowed to - 0.2% (from - 0.4% in June). The cumulative PPI from January to July decreased by 2.9%. Energy and raw material supply - demand pressure eased marginally, export - dependent industries were under pressure, international input pressure was differentiated, the resilience of high - tech manufacturing weakened, consumer and equipment manufacturing demand was released, and the pressure on consumer goods prices increased [7]. - **CPI**: In July 2025, the year - on - year CPI was flat (compared to + 0.1% in June), and the month - on - month increase was 0.4% (compared to - 0.1% in June), ending the consecutive decline. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. Food prices dragged down the CPI, energy and industrial product prices were differentiated, and service consumption strongly supported the CPI [21]. Appendix: July 2025 CPI and PPI Data - **CPI**: In July 2025, the year - on - year CPI was flat, with urban areas remaining the same and rural areas decreasing by 0.3%. Food prices decreased by 1.6%, non - food prices increased by 0.3%, consumer goods prices decreased by 0.4%, and service prices increased by 0.5%. The month - on - month CPI increased by 0.4% [35]. - **PPI**: In July 2025, the month - on - month decline of the industrial producer price index narrowed. The month - on - month industrial producer output price decreased by 0.2%, and the month - on - month industrial producer purchase price decreased by 0.3%. The year - on - year industrial producer output price decreased by 3.6%, and the year - on - year industrial producer purchase price decreased by 4.5%. From January to July, the average industrial producer output price decreased by 2.9% compared to the previous year, and the industrial producer purchase price decreased by 3.2% [37]. National Bureau of Statistics' Chief Statistician's Interpretation - **CPI**: The month - on - month increase in CPI was slightly higher than the seasonal level, and the year - on - year core CPI continued to rise. The year - on - year CPI was flat mainly due to low food prices [42]. - **PPI**: The month - on - month decline of PPI narrowed, and the year - on - year decline was the same as last month. Seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties affected some industries' prices, while the optimization of the domestic market competition order drove the narrowing of price declines in related industries. Some industries' prices showed positive changes due to industrial transformation and upgrading and the release of domestic demand potential [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, China's exports exceeded expectations, but container throughput dropped sharply at the beginning of August, and if the trend continues, August may be a turning point [1][11]. - Although the month - on - month PPI growth rate rebounded in July, the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. If commodity prices can hold up in August, the year - on - year PPI growth rate may rebound, but the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited [2][17]. - The real estate market continues to be sluggish, with new home sales area at a historical low and the second - hand housing market deteriorating [2][21]. - The bond market is in a volatile state this week. Looking forward, the bond market has investment value, and bond yields may break previous lows [3][35]. Summary by Directory 1. Domestic Economic Data Tracking (1) Export Exceeded Expectations - In July, China's export value was $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, far exceeding the Wind consensus forecast of 5.8% [11]. - Due to the "rush to export", the cumulative growth rate of export value has deviated from the annual average of the new export order index. Exports to the EU and ASEAN remained resilient, while those to the US continued to decline [11]. - Container throughput continued to rise in July but dropped sharply at the beginning of August. If the trend continues, August may be a turning point [1][11]. (2) Supply - side Reform Has Not Been Transmitted to PPI - In July, the year - on - year PPI remained at - 3.6%, the same as in June, due to the base effect. However, the month - on - month PPI growth rate rebounded by 0.2 percentage points compared to June [15][17]. - If commodity prices can hold up in August, the year - on - year PPI growth rate may rebound. However, the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited because the price increase in the upstream is difficult to be transmitted downstream, and overall demand needs to recover. Currently, only the mining and raw material sectors are showing price increases, accounting for about 25% [2][19]. 2. Real Estate Policy Effect Tracking - The Real Estate Market Continued to Perform Sluggishly - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline seasonally, remaining lower than the same period in 2024. The sales area of new homes in first - and third - tier cities was lower than in 2024, while that in second - tier cities was basically the same as last year. All are hovering at historical lows [2][21]. - As of July 28, the listing price index of second - hand housing continued to decline overall. The listing price index in first - tier cities rebounded slightly, while those in second - and third - tier cities continued to fall [2][21]. 3. Treasury Bonds: Policy Disturbance Cooled Down, and the Bond Market Remained Volatile - The bond market was relatively stable this week. The central bank conducted a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, sending a signal of explicit support [35]. - The upward trend brought by supply - side reform cooled down this week, and the impact on the bond market was not significant. Due to the unfalsifiable expectation of economic recovery brought by policy expectations, the bond market remained volatile [35]. - Looking forward, the overall view is bullish, with short - term volatility expected. The probability of interest rates continuing to decline is relatively high, and it will take time to test the policy effects [35].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1% in June, indicating a stable overall price level in the domestic market [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, driven by rising prices in gold and platinum jewelry, as well as seasonal service price increases [3][5] - Service prices increased by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the CPI increase, with significant rises in travel-related costs due to the summer vacation season [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month by 0.2 percentage points, marking the first narrowing of the month-on-month decline since March [4][5] - The PPI year-on-year fell by 3.6%, consistent with the previous month, reflecting ongoing adjustments in traditional industries and the growth of emerging sectors [5][6] - Improvements in market competition and the implementation of policies to curb disorderly price competition have contributed to a narrowing of price declines in industries such as coal, steel, and solar energy [4][5] Group 3: Consumer Demand and Market Trends - The expansion of domestic demand policies has led to positive changes in consumer prices, with an increase in demand for upgraded consumer goods driving price rises in specific sectors [6] - The prices of certain consumer goods, such as art and ceremonial products, sports balls, and nutritional foods, have seen year-on-year increases of 13.1%, 5.3%, and 1.3%, respectively, indicating a shift towards higher-value consumption [6] - The ongoing construction of large infrastructure projects is expected to support a gradual stabilization of industrial product prices, with the PPI potentially entering a mild recovery phase [6]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating a shift from decline to growth, while the year-on-year change remained flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [2][4] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service prices, which rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI increase [2][3] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization in certain industries [3][4] - The year-on-year PPI decline was 3.6%, consistent with the previous month, suggesting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [4][5] - Improvements in supply-demand relationships in some industries were noted, with price declines narrowing in sectors like coal, steel, and solar energy [3][4] Group 3 - Economic stability and demand expansion are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices in the second half of the year [5][6] - Policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are anticipated to positively influence consumer prices [5][6] - The impact of international commodity price fluctuations on the domestic market is expected to diminish, contributing to a more stable price environment [6]

每经AI快讯，中金指出，7月在"反内卷"政策发力下，重点行业控量提价推动PPI环比跌幅收窄 至-0.2%，加之换新资金下达、网促扰动消退、金价上涨，CPI工业消费品价格改善，并推动核心CPI同 比连续第三个月回升。但本轮供给侧产能治理相较于2016年更加市场化、法治化，对物价的提振效果更 柔和。PPI同比跌幅仍在两年低位的-3.6%，CPI同比由涨转平。向前看，翘尾因素的拖累消退或带动8月 后PPI同比、四季度CPI同比改善，但若想持续有效推动通胀回归历史中枢，仍需政策加力，且扩内需更 为关键。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that the Producer Price Index (PPI) continues to remain at a low level year-on-year, with limited potential for improvement in the future, making it unlikely for PPI to turn positive within the year [1] Group 1: Real Estate Market - The real estate market has been weakening since the second quarter, with the total sales area and sales revenue of commercial housing in the first six months declining by 3.5% and 5.5% year-on-year, respectively [1] - In July, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities showed a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%, compared to a decrease of 8.4% in June [1] Group 2: Economic Dynamics - There is insufficient momentum among microeconomic entities, leading to weak investment from enterprises and low consumer spending willingness [1] - The industrial capacity utilization rate in the second quarter was 74%, showing a downward trend both year-on-year and month-on-month, indicating continued weak demand [1] Group 3: Market Competition - The ongoing optimization of market competition is leading to a narrowing of price declines in related industries, but the sustained improvement effect remains to be observed [1]