在一周前，中国对黄金的需求似乎无穷无尽。由于诸如华安易富、博时以及国泰等中国黄金交易型开放式指数基金（ETF）出现惊人的资金流入等因素，现 货黄金价格上周短暂触及了3500美元的历史纪录。 然而，这场基于市场动能的淘金热潮来也匆匆，去也匆匆。高盛大宗商品交易员亚当・吉拉德（Adam Gillard）写道，中国投资者在劳动节假期前清算了上 周增加的黄金持仓，导致目前中国境内总持仓量较历史峰值回落5%。尽管中国在全球未平仓合约中的占比仍维持在40%的高位，但上行势头可能已暂时见 顶。 以下图表呈现了中国投资者"先抢购后抛售"黄金的情况。 上周二（4月22日），黄金创下历史最高纪录，中国投资者在上海黄金交易所（SGE）和上海期货交易所（SHFE）共增加了120万盎司的持仓量，交易量也 创下纪录。 而时间快进到今天，中国投资者在这两大交易所近乎创纪录地抛售100万盎司的黄金头寸，完全逆转了4月22日的买入热潮。不过，相关的黄金ETF的持仓量 基本没有变化。 目前中国的总持仓量较峰值下降约5%，纸黄金套利空间较高点缩水20美元/盎司。 吉拉德的观点证实了市场人士的一些观察，即近期黄金的价格波动都集中在中国市场开盘时段。 ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. government has shifted its stance on the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with a call for a "comprehensive and permanent ceasefire" instead of accepting Russia's proposal for a three-day ceasefire [1] - The Trump administration has presented a "take it or leave it" framework to Ukraine, demanding recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and Ukraine's abandonment of NATO membership [3] - Ukraine's President Zelensky has firmly rejected these demands, stating that Ukraine will never legally recognize territorial losses [3] Group 2: Energy Security and Sovereignty Crisis - The potential long-term conflict could lead to renewed European dependence on Russian gas, impacting energy security and economic growth in Europe [4] - Zelensky's refusal to compromise may result in reduced U.S. military aid, weakening Ukraine's defense capabilities against Russian forces [4] - Diverging positions between European nations and the U.S. on Crimea could threaten NATO unity and lead to differing approaches on sanctions and trade negotiations with Russia [4] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Increased geopolitical uncertainty is driving short-term demand for gold, with prices rebounding to $3,313 per ounce as of April 30, 2023, amid concerns over the stalled negotiations [5] - The U.S. dollar's credibility is under pressure due to Trump's tariff policies and rising fiscal deficits, leading to a significant increase in global central bank gold purchases [6] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts are rising, which could influence gold prices depending on the Federal Reserve's actions [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Key upcoming events include the U.S. ADP employment data on April 30, which could reinforce rate cut expectations if underwhelming, and Russia's Victory Day parade on May 9, which may escalate the conflict [8] - Trump's potential cessation of support for Ukraine could lead to a reevaluation of European security dynamics, increasing volatility in gold prices [8]

周三（北京时间4月30日），现货黄金交投于3312美元附近，近期持稳于3310美元附近。投资者在等待 本周的关键经济数据，以判断美联储的政策前景。黄金周二下跌近1%，主要原因是贸易紧张局势缓和 的信号减少了一些避险需求。现货金报每盎司3315.84美元，下跌0.8%；美国期金收低0.4%，报3333.6 美元。 投资者目前密切关注本周一系列重要的美国经济数据，包括周三的个人消费支出物价指数和周五的月度 非农就业报告。这些数据将为投资者提供关于美国经济状况的重要信息，进而影响美联储的政策决策。 美联储的政策前景对黄金市场具有重要影响。如果经济数据表现强劲，可能促使美联储维持当前的利率 水平或采取紧缩性政策，这将对黄金价格产生下行压力。相反，如果经济数据表现疲弱，可能促使美联 储采取宽松政策，从而为黄金价格提供支撑。 汽车关税政策的潜在影响 官员们表示，特朗普总统的政府计划通过降低对美国制造的汽车所使用的外国零部件的税收，并确保进 口汽车不会被征收多重关税，来减轻汽车关税的影响。这一政策调整可能对美国汽车制造业产生积极影 响，同时也可能缓解市场对贸易摩擦的担忧。然而，这一政策的具体实施细节和市场反应仍需进一步观 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant drop of nearly 1% on April 29, with spot gold falling to $3,317.25 per ounce, a decline of 0.81% after briefly dropping below the $3,300 mark [1] - The easing of trade tensions, particularly the U.S. government's softened stance on auto tariffs, has reduced the demand for safe-haven assets like gold, leading to a rebound in the U.S. dollar [1][2] - Despite short-term pressures on gold prices, long-term demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains strong due to ongoing uncertainties in trade policies and economic indicators [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Key economic indicators show concerning trends, with the consumer confidence index falling to a five-year low and job vacancies decreasing by 288,000 in March [2] - Goldman Sachs has revised its GDP forecast, predicting a contraction of 0.8% for the first quarter, indicating potential economic slowdown [2] - The Federal Reserve officials are open to interest rate cuts if economic risks become apparent, but they prefer to assess the impact of trade policies on inflation and employment first [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices fell sharply, with WTI crude dropping 2.84% to $59.93 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.48% to $63 per barrel, influenced by concerns over global demand due to trade tensions [5] - OPEC+ is considering increasing production, which could exacerbate supply-demand imbalances in the oil market amid declining demand forecasts [7] - U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels, significantly higher than the expected increase of 400,000 barrels, raising concerns about supply excess [7]

从日线图表现来看，美元指数当前处于明显的下行通道中，MA55均线(103.6526)明显向下倾斜，表明 中期下行趋势仍占主导。短期内，MA14均线(99.8024)和MA200(104.5273)形成的价格带为价格提供了 关键的运行区间。 周三（4月30日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报99.30，涨幅0.08%，开盘价为99.22。美国消费者长期通 胀预期连续第二个月大幅上升，这一趋势不太可能是随机异常或测量误差。 密歇根大学的调查结果显示，美国消费者通胀预期显著上升，与2021/22年疫情后通胀期间的温和上升 形成鲜明对比。德意志商业银行外汇和大宗商品研究主管UlrichLeuchtmann指出，通胀预期是通胀的主 要驱动因素之一。如果通胀预期持续上升，美联储将难以忽视关税引发的通胀冲击。当长期通胀预期较 高时，如果美联储不采取行动，通胀可能会进一步上升。Leuchtmann强调，美联储越晚干预，后续采取 措施的痛苦程度可能越高。上周，美联储理事ChristopherWaller表示，如果美国关税导致失业率上升 （他认为是在7月之后），美联储应降低关键利率。然而，如果通胀预期同时上升，这一决策将变得更 加复杂 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index fell, closing down 0.69% at 98.93, while US Treasury yields continued to decline, with the 10-year yield at 4.211%, a three-week low [1] - Spot gold reversed its earlier decline, rising 0.75% to close at $3344.08 per ounce, supported by buying interest after a drop of 1.8% [1] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing central bank purchases, expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical risks [1] Group 2 - WTI crude oil futures fell 2.03% to $61.89 per barrel, marking a near two-week low, amid uncertainties regarding OPEC+ production plans and concerns over the organization's unity [3] - Oil prices are expected to remain in a narrow trading range due to the lack of significant positive or negative news, with support confirmed around the $55 level and resistance near $65 [5] - The market sentiment indicates a preference for a cautious approach in trading, focusing on trend analysis and strategic entry points rather than emotional trading [5]

黄金周三（4月30日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3315.16美元/盎司附近。周二金价下 跌0.8%，收报3317.06美元/盎司，特朗普政府突然软化汽车关税立场，导致避险资产黄金的价格承压， 而美元则趁机反弹。黄金最近处于一个区间震荡中，因为市场现在在等待首个贸易协议的细节，预计将 在本周或下周公布。上周黄金达到一个转折点，特朗普发表一些非常积极的评论，同时滞涨风险继续被 排除，黄金也持续下行。滞涨定价曾推动黄金价格上涨，而随着市场开始排除这种风险，出现修正是正 常的，尤其是考虑到"做多黄金"已经成为最拥挤的交易之一。本交易日将迎来美国一季度GDP数据和3 月份PCE数据，这场由政策转向引发的资产价格大洗牌，正将市场焦点重新拉回美联储政策走向与经济 基本面。 特朗普周二签署行政令，通过对汽车制造商提供税收抵免等方式减轻关税冲击。在这场政策、数据与市 场预期的三重博弈中，黄金正站在十字路口。短期来看，风险偏好回升压制金价；但若本周数据坐实经 济衰退风险，美联储可能被迫转向，届时黄金或将迎来新一轮爆发。聪明的投资者正在密切关注周三 PCE、一季度GDP数据与周五非农这两大关键数据，它们很可能成为决定 ...

Group 1 - The market narrative is expected to oscillate between recession and stagflation until trade issues are resolved, the Federal Reserve begins to ease policies, or inflationary pressures fail to build [1] - Investors are increasingly concerned about the economic growth outlook, leading to expectations of declining yields [1] - BMO Capital Markets analyst Ian Lyngen expresses concerns about further weakening economic data in the short term [1] Group 2 - HSBC strategists, including Nicole Inui, highlight the need for clarity on economic conditions to stabilize market expectations [1]

周二(4月29日)欧市盘中，国际黄金继续维持区间震荡，截至发稿报3324.49美元/盎司，跌幅0.58%，今 日金价开盘于3341.30美元/盎司，最高上探3348.36美元/盎司，最低触及3304.69美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 尽管市场风险偏好短暂回升，市场仍保持高度关注美联储政策路径。市场普遍预期美联储将在6月恢复 降息周期，全年或将实施三次降息。 "在当前不确定性环境下，黄金仍是应对利率和地缘双重风险的核心配置。"OANDA分析师Craig Erlam 指出。 此外，俄罗斯单方面宣布将在5月8日实施72小时停火，但乌克兰方面并未回应，地缘局势缓和，为黄金 提供潜在支撑。 巴克莱策略师在一份报告中说，该行仍然建议投资者买入五年期美国国债，为美联储降低利率做准备。 巴克莱建议投资者在4月中旬重新建立五年期美国国债的多头头寸，而在4月2日关税公告公布后，鉴于 价格重新定价和更高的不确定性，投资者已转为中性。 【黄金技术分析】 黄金周一下跌在3268.00之上受到支持，上涨在3353.00之下遇阻，意味着欧美短线下跌后有可能保持上 涨的走势。如果黄金今天下跌在3293.00之上企稳，后市上涨的目标将会指向33 ...

金十数据4月28日讯，荷兰国际银行利率策略师在一份报告中表示，美国总统特朗普最近对美联储政策 的质疑，对长期国债没有帮助。解除美联储主席鲍威尔的职务似乎不在讨论范围内，但特朗普批评美联 储降息步伐缓慢。此外，策略师们表示，当鲍威尔的任期于2026年5月结束时，特朗普将任命一位新主 席。美国国债在4月份经历了一个非常不稳定的阶段，尽管它们现在似乎正在企稳。据Tradeweb的数 据，10年期美国国债收益率下跌1个基点，至4.256%。LSEG数据显示，货币市场显示投资者完全消化 了美国7月降息的预期，6月也有可能降息。 荷兰国际银行：特朗普质疑美联储政策对美国国债无益 ...