美联储戴利：鉴于不确定性，市场对政策的任何指引都将是猜测且可能错误的。 ...

不确定通胀压力是否只是暂时的。 我们的任务面临的双方面的风险都在增加。 美联储副主席Jefferson： 美联储政策具备及时应对的能力。 近期的通胀数据与通胀迈向2%的目标水平一致。 政府政策效果可能在"一段时间内"不确定。 关税更高可能导致今年通胀更高。 下调了2025年的增长预期，但仍预计经济将增长。 从硬数据中寻找经济疲软的迹象。 ...

美联储副主席杰斐逊：美联储政策具备及时应对的能力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including investor behavior, inflation data, geopolitical tensions, and the performance of the US dollar [1][10]. Group 1: Investor Behavior - The phenomenon of buying on dips acts as an invisible "safety net" in the gold market, with significant buying interest emerging when prices drop, reflecting investors' strong belief in gold as a "ultimate safe-haven asset" [3]. - After gold prices fell to a low of $3207.30 per ounce, a surge of buying interest quickly entered the market, indicating a robust demand for gold amidst economic uncertainties [3]. Group 2: Inflation Data - The US Labor Department reported a 0.2% month-on-month increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, which was below the expected 0.3%, providing a boost to gold prices [4]. - The mild inflation report is expected to support the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, enhancing the attractiveness of gold as a hedge against inflation [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the potential talks between Ukraine and Russia, continue to provide strong support for gold prices [5][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding geopolitical events reinforces the historical wisdom of buying gold during tumultuous times, as investors seek to protect their assets from potential losses [5]. Group 4: US Dollar Performance - The US dollar index fell by 0.8% to 100.98, contrasting with the rise in gold prices, highlighting the negative correlation between the two [7]. - Despite easing trade tensions between the US and China, the dollar remains lower than its level when tariffs were announced, influencing market expectations for Federal Reserve policy and subsequently gold prices [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Gold faces three key variables: the progress of US-China trade negotiations, the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the evolution of global geopolitical risks [8]. - The market is advised to monitor these factors closely, as they will significantly impact risk appetite and demand for gold [8].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has shown a significant decline after a brief rebound, primarily driven by weaker-than-expected inflation data and underlying concerns about the US macroeconomic framework [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - The US core CPI increased by only 0.2% month-on-month, providing an opportunity for dollar bears to re-enter the market [3]. - There are growing doubts among traders regarding the resilience of the US economy, with expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year remaining unchanged despite the inflation data [3]. - The 10-year swap spread for the dollar remains elevated, exceeding 50 basis points, indicating market concerns about US Treasury market pressures and fiscal sustainability [3]. Technical Analysis - The dollar index is in a clear downtrend, currently trading around 100.90, with a significant drop from the 110 level [5]. - The MACD indicator has been below the zero line for an extended period, suggesting a weak overall trend despite recent bullish signals [5]. - The Bollinger Bands indicate a wide trading range, with the upper band at 101.92 and the lower band at 98.02, while the price is constrained by the 99.97 midline [5]. Market Sentiment Observation - Market sentiment is characterized by skepticism, with traders increasingly losing confidence in the dollar [7]. - The short-lived rebound in the dollar reflects a cautious attitude among traders, who are quick to capitalize on any upward movement to short the currency [7]. - Overall sentiment remains pessimistic but has not reached extreme panic levels, with short positions on the dollar being the predominant strategy [7]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the dollar index is expected to oscillate within the 100.14 - 101.80 range, with potential support if US economic data exceeds expectations [8]. - A successful breakout above the 101.17 resistance level could lead to a rally towards 102.22 [8]. - Long-term structural pressures on the dollar are significant, with the trend of de-dollarization potentially impacting reserve composition and cross-border settlements [8].

Group 1 - OPEC is set to release its monthly oil market report, which is crucial for understanding global oil supply and demand dynamics [1] - The API crude oil inventory data for the week ending May 9 will be released, providing insights into U.S. oil stock levels [1] - The final CPI month-on-month figure for Germany in April will be published, which is important for assessing inflation trends in the Eurozone [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller is scheduled to speak, which may influence market expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy [1] - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson will also deliver remarks, potentially impacting investor sentiment [1] - EIA will release several key inventory reports, including crude oil, Cushing crude oil, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories for the week ending May 9, which are vital for gauging U.S. oil market conditions [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of technical analysis in navigating the fluctuations of the dollar index, likening it to a dynamic ECG that reveals hidden signals in the market [1] - It highlights the effectiveness of trend lines and moving averages in predicting currency movements, particularly during significant market events like the European energy crisis [3] - The article discusses the value of combining technical indicators to enhance predictive capabilities, especially when aligned with fundamental factors such as Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical events [5] Group 1: Technical Analysis - The dollar index's K-line chart serves as a crucial tool for traders to identify key resistance levels and predict strong market trends [1] - The formation of higher peaks and troughs in the dollar index indicates the establishment of an upward channel, particularly noted during the 2022 European energy crisis [3] - The combination of technical indicators, such as MACD and RSI, provides insights into market momentum and trend strength, with specific examples from the dollar/yen exchange rate [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Historical price levels often self-validate, as seen when the dollar/euro exchange rate rebounded after hitting a support level [3] - The emergence of specific price patterns, like the head and shoulders bottom, signals potential trend reversals, while prolonged consolidation phases can lead to significant price movements [3] - Market sentiment, indicated by the VIX index, can create trading opportunities when it inversely correlates with the dollar index [3] Group 3: Investment Tools - Doo Financial offers a multi-dimensional analysis framework and real-time monitoring systems to help investors navigate the complexities of the market [5] - The integration of technical signals with fundamental developments is crucial for making informed investment decisions in a rapidly changing environment [5]

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 美国政府滥施关税一度引发全球风险资产暴跌，避险资产光芒四射。但短短一个月后，市场风险偏好回 升，全球资产表现"大逆转"。 当地时间5月12日，风险资产再获青睐，避险资产大幅回调。美股高开高走，三大指数大幅收涨，均收 于3月以来的最高水平。美债下挫，10年期美债收益率逼近4.5%关口。2年期美债收益率一度突破4%。 现货金下跌2.7%，收报每盎司3233.72美元。 据新华社报道，中美经贸高层会谈5月10日至11日在瑞士举行，受到国际社会高度关注。经过双方共同 努力，中美在多个领域进行了坦诚、深入、具有建设性的沟通，达成一系列重要共识，取得实质性进 展，迈出了通过平等对话协商解决分歧的重要一步，为进一步弥合分歧和深化合作打下了基础、创造了 条件。 5月12日，中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。商务部新闻发言人就此发表谈话。美方承 诺取消根据2025年4月8日第14259号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对中国商品加征的共计91% 的关税，修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令对中国商品加征的34%的对等关税，其中24%的关税暂停 加征90天，保留剩 ...

黄金实时分析 关注美国通胀数据，美联储进退两难，黄金关键位在哪？点击观看金十研究员文成直播分析 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, highlighting the potential market reactions and the implications of recent U.S.-China trade negotiations on inflation trends [3][4]. CPI Predictions - Wall Street expects the overall CPI month-on-month to record 0.3%, up from -0.1% last month, and the year-on-year CPI to remain steady at 2.4% [4]. - Core CPI month-on-month is predicted to be 0.3%, an increase from 0.1% in March, with a wide forecast range from 0.0% to 0.6% [4]. Trade Impact on Inflation - Economists believe the upcoming CPI report will reflect the impact of recent tariff measures, although the actual effect may be limited due to prior imports [4][5]. - The temporary tariff reduction agreement between the U.S. and China may lead to inventory replenishment by retailers, potentially causing short-term price increases [5]. Sector-Specific Insights - Economists are closely monitoring service categories that reflect discretionary spending, with travel-related prices like airfare and car rentals showing a downward trend [6]. - The housing category, which has the largest weight in CPI, is expected to slow down after a strong increase in March [6]. Price Trends - Goldman Sachs predicts a 0.31% month-on-month increase in overall CPI, driven by rising food and energy prices [6]. - The report anticipates a 0.5% decrease in used car prices, while new car prices are expected to rise by 0.1% due to reduced promotional activities [7]. Insurance Costs - Auto insurance prices are projected to rise by 0.7% month-on-month, reflecting increased costs for insurers due to higher vehicle prices and repair costs [7]. Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs suggests that unless retailers begin to liquidate previously accumulated inventories, tariffs will continue to hinder inflation from falling to the 2% target [8]. - The bank forecasts core CPI month-on-month to be around 0.35% in the coming months, with a potential decline in trend inflation due to reduced contributions from sectors like automotive and housing [8].