证券研究报告 · 宏观报告 · 宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20250711 房地产对中国经济的影响已明显减弱 ■ 理性看待经济动能转换过程中地产的负增长 ■ 宏观视角:地产投资对经济增长的影响已明显减弱 > 其一,从经济增长的角度,尽管过去几年地产投资维持着 10%的负增 长,但我国经济总量维持着平稳增长,且地产投资对经济增长的影响在 逐步减弱。从直接影响来看,今年一季度我国房地产开发投资累计同比 ） 乐吴让莽 2025年07月11日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书:S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书:S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 刘子博 执业证书:S0600524120014 liuzb(@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《6 月超预期非农令市场降息预期延 后至9月》 2025-07-06 《政府债融资多增或推升 6月社融增 增速录得-9.9%,较去年全年的-10.6%小幅收窄,对经济增长的影响也由 去年全年的-0.9%降至了-0.7%;从间接影响来看,一方面,地产及其拉 动相关行业的增加值占 GDP ...

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Kexin Electromechanical Co., Ltd. expects a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, with estimates between 50 million to 55 million yuan, representing a decrease of 43.29% to 48.44% compared to the same period last year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a decrease in operating revenue of approximately 12.3 million yuan, or about 17%, compared to the previous year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to drop significantly, with a forecasted range of 46.26 million to 51.26 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 44.93% to 50.30% year-on-year [1][2]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed total revenue of 328 million yuan, an increase of 18.96% year-on-year, but the net profit for the second quarter is expected to fall sharply to between 1.72 million and 6.72 million yuan, indicating a quarter-on-quarter decline of 86% to 96% [3]. Operational Challenges - The decline in revenue is attributed to reduced output due to external technical input delays affecting production schedules, despite having good order volumes [2]. - Changes in product structure, with more complex and larger equipment being delivered, have increased manufacturing time and costs, contributing to the overall decline in gross profit by approximately 4 million yuan [2]. - The company faces increased risks related to accounts receivable, particularly in the photovoltaic and BDO project equipment sectors, due to slower project construction and operation by clients [2]. Business Segments - Kexin Electromechanical is a key player in the high-end process equipment manufacturing sector, with a revenue share of 99.03% from this segment as of the 2024 annual report [2]. - The issues with accounts receivable in the renewable energy business segment highlight the volatility risks emerging in this area [2].

提问 如何理解配置先行？ 唐军 配置先行是相对过去大家比较熟知的、从选人角度出发来做FOF投资的一种理念。配置先行的意思 是，我们先要有自己的配置框架、配置观点，然后去选择符合我们配置观点的基金经理或基金产品。 提问 做"配置先行"需要什么能力？ 截至2025年6月30日，由唐军管理的中泰天择稳健6个月持有A近2年、近1年的排名分别为3/135、2/179 （数据来源：国泰海通证券，产品分类为普通FOF低仓位）， 但我们今天更希望向您呈现的，是这位基 金经理的投资框架。 提问 用一句话来介绍，你会怎么说？ 唐军 我是一个配置先行的FOF基金经理，就是通过自上而下的配置，以FOF这种形式，希望能给投资者带 来更稳健、更高的收益风险比的投资回报。 唐军 一是要有一个相对独立或者客观的配置的 分析框架 ，这样才能有比较独立的配置观点。 二要有选择最优的配置工具来实现配置观点的能力，这就是通常所说的 优选基金的能力 。 三是要有严格的、科学的 风险预算框架 。很多人理解做配置就是对资产进行择时，这个通俗的理解其实 也没错，但择时的胜率不会很高，所以它需要有严格的风险控制，或者说在风险预算的框架体系下，我们 才能够使资 ...

2025 年 7 月 11 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银、工业硅、多晶硅期货将震荡偏 强 螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、玻璃期货将偏强震荡 原油期货 将震荡偏弱 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 4000 和 4028 点，支撑位 3972 和 3952 点；IH2509 阻力位 2765 和 2780 点，支撑位 2740 和 2724 点；IC2509 阻力位 5900 和 5960 点，支撑位 5850 和 5823 点；IM250 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing savings behavior of young people in China, particularly in the context of low interest rates and the search for better investment alternatives. It highlights a shift towards increased savings and a preference for low to medium-risk investments among younger generations [4][5][35]. Group 1: Savings Trends - In a recent survey, approximately 30% of respondents reported savings exceeding 500,000 yuan, with 12.3% of the post-2000 generation having savings over 300,000 yuan [6][8]. - The median savings amount reported in the survey is between 200,000 to 300,000 yuan, with the post-1985 generation showing the highest proportion of savings over 300,000 yuan [12][10]. - The survey indicates that 38.8% of respondents save more than half of their monthly salary, with a significant portion of the younger generation planning to increase their savings rate in the future [19][21]. Group 2: Investment Preferences - Respondents showed a preference for bank deposits, money market funds, and bonds, with younger individuals favoring more liquid options like money market funds due to their accessibility and slightly higher returns [14][27]. - Higher income individuals tend to diversify their investments more, with those earning over 500,000 yuan selecting an average of 3.6 investment options compared to 2.6 for those earning under 100,000 yuan [17][25]. - The article notes a trend where younger generations are more inclined to increase low to medium-risk investments, while older generations are more likely to reduce consumption, particularly in discretionary spending [25][35]. Group 3: Economic Context - The article references macroeconomic data showing that household savings in China increased by 8.3 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, with a record high of 74.29% of household deposits being time deposits [22][27]. - The current interest rates for one-year fixed deposits have dropped to 0.95%, prompting individuals to seek higher returns through alternative savings and investment methods [30][27]. - The article suggests that the cautious approach to savings and investments among young people is influenced by their experiences and expectations shaped by economic conditions [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The event on July 8, 2023, marked the 13th National Insurance Publicity Day, focusing on the theme "Love and Responsibility, Insurance Makes Life Better" to enhance public awareness of insurance and financial literacy [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The event was organized by the China Insurance Industry Association and aimed to promote insurance services and financial knowledge in rural areas, specifically in Jiuji Village, Zibo City [1][3] - Activities included setting up service consultation booths, hanging promotional banners, and distributing informative materials to educate villagers about insurance [3] Group 2: Financial Knowledge Promotion - The event emphasized the core values of insurance, including risk protection, economic compensation, and life stability, particularly focusing on health and pension insurance products relevant to villagers [3][5] - Financial literacy was promoted using simple language and relatable examples, covering basic financial concepts, savings, and rational investment ideas to help villagers manage their finances effectively [5] Group 3: Risk Prevention and Awareness - A special segment on fraud prevention was included, addressing common scams in rural areas, especially targeting the elderly, and providing tips on recognizing and avoiding such scams [5] - The event highlighted the dangers of the "agent refund" black market, warning villagers about potential loss of coverage and financial harm, and encouraged them to consult official channels for insurance matters [5][7] Group 4: Community Impact and Future Plans - The initiative fostered a better understanding of insurance functions and financial risk awareness among villagers, contributing to a supportive environment for financial literacy [7] - The company plans to continue its efforts in grassroots engagement, aiming to enhance public financial literacy and support local economic development and rural revitalization [7]

Group 1: Overview of the US Stock Market - The US stock market includes major trading venues such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Nasdaq Stock Market, with NYSE being known for its strict listing standards and traditional large enterprises, while Nasdaq is oriented towards technology and innovation companies [1] - Trading hours for these markets are generally from 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM Eastern Time, which corresponds to nighttime in Beijing, requiring investors to monitor market dynamics during the night [1] - Different exchanges have varying rules and requirements regarding the qualifications of listed companies and information disclosure [1] Group 2: Choosing a Suitable US Brokerage - Investors need to select a brokerage that offers US stock trading services, considering factors such as trading fees and commission policies, which can vary significantly among brokerages [2] - The commission structure may include charges based on the number of trades or a percentage of the transaction amount, and understanding the trading platform's functionality is essential for ease of use [2] - The security of the brokerage is crucial, necessitating verification of regulatory oversight by legitimate financial authorities to ensure the safety of investors' funds [2] Group 3: Basic Investment Knowledge and Analysis Methods - Investors should understand fundamental concepts of stocks, such as ownership certificates issued by corporations, which grant shareholders certain rights [3] - Key financial metrics like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and price-to-book (P/B) ratio are important for assessing stock price rationality and company valuation [3] - Fundamental analysis focuses on detailed examination of financial statements, including revenue, profit growth, and balance sheet health, while technical analysis involves studying historical price and volume data to predict future price movements [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy and Risk Control - Developing an investment strategy is critical, tailored to individual financial situations, investment goals, and risk tolerance, with strategies varying significantly based on risk preferences [4] - For those with lower risk tolerance, a conservative investment strategy focusing on stability and cash flow returns is advisable, while higher risk tolerance may lead to pursuing higher return strategies [4] - Setting stop-loss and take-profit points is an effective method for controlling risk, regardless of the chosen investment strategy [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-07-11 品种晨会纪要 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 产油国大幅增产，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 核心逻辑：由于中东地缘风险仍旧存在，原油溢价有所提升。在经历前期大幅回落以后，油市多头 信心再度增强，地缘溢价有所反弹。随着北半球夏季用油旺季到来，原油需求因子发力。不过近期 OPEC 和非 OPEC 产油国中的 8 个主要产油国决定 8 月增产 54.8 万桶/日 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangyunda (光韵达) is seeking cross-border mergers and acquisitions to enter the communication equipment manufacturing sector after reporting its first loss in 14 years. The company plans to acquire 56.03% of Yilian Infinite Technology (亿联无限) for 352 million yuan, down from an initial intention to acquire 100% [2][9]. Financial Performance - Guangyunda reported a decline in net profit from 91.54 million yuan in 2021 to a loss of 27.37 million yuan in 2024, marking a continuous decline in profitability [9]. - Yilian Infinite's net profit dropped from 84.17 million yuan in 2022 to 28.67 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a significant decrease in performance [4][6]. Acquisition Details - The acquisition price for Yilian Infinite was set at 352 million yuan, with an overall valuation of 628 million yuan, which is significantly lower than its previous IPO valuation of 1.47 billion yuan [3][4]. - The decision to reduce the acquisition stake from 100% to 56.03% was made to lower financial costs and mitigate operational uncertainties associated with Yilian Infinite's declining performance [2][8]. Risks and Challenges - Yilian Infinite faces multiple risks, including a significant drop in performance post-IPO withdrawal and issues related to a second shareholder's legal troubles [7][8]. - The company also has to deal with potential financial penalties related to a land purchase that was intended for IPO fundraising but is now under negotiation for termination [7][8]. Strategic Intent - Guangyunda aims to leverage the acquisition to expand its presence in the electronic manufacturing supply chain and explore new profit growth opportunities in overseas markets [9]. - The company has previously engaged in two cross-border acquisitions, but the performance of those subsidiaries has not met expectations, indicating challenges in integrating new businesses [10].

Core Viewpoint - The investigation into Zhao Peng, a senior executive at Dajia Insurance Group, highlights significant governance challenges within financial risk management institutions, following the earlier case of Fu Fei, another executive involved in similar misconduct [1][4]. Group 1: Zhao Peng Incident - Zhao Peng, previously a prominent figure in the financial sector, is under investigation for alleged misconduct in deposit operations, including manipulating fund flows and accepting kickbacks [6][4]. - His background includes a law doctorate and roles in regulatory bodies, raising concerns about the integrity of regulatory oversight [4][5]. - As of July 2025, there have been no official updates regarding the investigation's progress, and Zhao remains unaccounted for [1]. Group 2: Fu Fei Case - Fu Fei, former deputy head of the Anbang takeover team, was convicted for corruption, including transferring assets below market value and accepting bribes [2][3]. - The court found that he misused his position to facilitate transactions that benefited specific companies, leading to significant financial losses [2]. Group 3: Governance and Oversight Issues - The dual compensation structure for Zhao Peng, who held positions in both banking and insurance, raises concerns about conflicts of interest and inadequate oversight mechanisms [8][9]. - The transition of regulatory figures into operational roles has exposed weaknesses in self-regulation and market accountability [10][11][12]. Group 4: Regulatory Responses - In April 2025, the Insurance Guarantee Fund implemented measures to enhance oversight, including appointing a special supervisory group to review major financial decisions [13]. - New regulations introduced by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission aim to address systemic risks and improve governance structures [20][21]. Group 5: Financial Performance and Challenges - Dajia Insurance has faced significant operational challenges, including a six-year gap in annual report disclosures and a high vacancy rate in its healthcare services [16][14]. - Despite some positive indicators in premium income and profitability, the company struggles with investment performance, showing negative returns on certain funds [18]. Group 6: Market Position and Future Outlook - Dajia Insurance's privatization efforts have stalled, with previous attempts to transfer ownership failing and ongoing discussions yielding no substantial results [22][23]. - The company must address historical liabilities and governance issues to attract potential investors and ensure a successful transition to a more robust governance framework [23].