Core Viewpoint - The performance of the capital market in 2026 will largely depend on investors' expectations regarding medium- to long-term fundamentals, with a focus on China's role in providing global public goods and building a modern industrial system domestically [3]. Group 1: Characteristics of a Financial Power - A strong and confident approach to opening up is essential for China's capital market to evolve into a financial power, supported by the country's rising global position and initiatives like the Belt and Road [5]. - The stock market's equity risk premium in China is significantly higher than in the U.S., indicating a need for improved market confidence and a potential for valuation adjustments [5][6]. - The historical valuation comparisons may become less relevant as the market evolves, suggesting that simplistic analyses may not capture the future dynamics [6]. Group 2: Market Resilience and Shareholder Returns - The capital market must maintain resilience and reduce volatility to attract global investors, with mechanisms in place to stabilize market sentiment during uncertainties [7][8]. - High dividend payouts from state-owned enterprises are seen as a positive shift in corporate governance, enhancing shareholder returns and attracting long-term capital [8]. - The current dividend yield of the CSI 300 index remains attractive compared to the ten-year government bond yield, indicating a solid foundation for patient capital [8]. Group 3: Future Pricing and Market Dynamics - The decline in equity risk premium will depend on China's ability to convert its national and cultural influence into sustainable pricing power within global supply chains [9]. - The manufacturing sector's contribution to global value added is projected to be significant, with a potential increase in competitive advantages in key areas [9]. - The focus should be on creating a sustainable profit ecosystem rather than relying on excessive competition, which could enhance overall market dynamics [10]. Group 4: Capital Market Pricing and Future Industries - The capital market needs to develop a pricing mechanism for future industries, moving beyond traditional valuation methods that do not align with the potential of innovative companies [11]. - The ability to price future industries effectively will contribute to a reduction in equity risk premiums, reflecting a more mature market [11]. Group 5: Economic Indicators and Market Outlook - The core driver of asset prices in 2026 is expected to be the Producer Price Index (PPI), which, along with housing prices, will influence market dynamics [13]. - A potential rebound in profits for A-share companies is anticipated, with projections indicating a significant increase in net profits for non-financial sectors [14]. - The convergence of improving corporate fundamentals, emerging industry trends, and increased global influence is expected to support a bullish market outlook for A-shares [14].

近期，随着AI板块进入阶段性调整，市场上关于"AI是否存在泡沫"的讨论再度升温。12月5日，国联民 生证券研究所副总经理兼海外研究首席分析师孔蓉在与新浪证券直播对话中指出，市场的每一次调整与 质疑，都伴随着产业自身的前进节奏。从ChatGPT开启的生成式AI浪潮以来，这种"在质疑中创新高"的 循环已反复上演。 孔蓉认为，当前关于"泡沫"的讨论，其核心导火索并非技术失效或前景黯淡，而在于产业发展的客观规 律与资本市场主观预期之间出现了"节奏性错配"。人工智能作为一场深刻的变革，其对各行业的渗透与 改造是渐进式的。然而，投资者往往期望在短时间内兑现未来数年甚至十年的增长红利，这种心态导致 市场情绪在极度乐观与过度悲观之间剧烈摆动。当技术进展或商业兑现的速度暂时跟不上被过度透支的 预期时，"泡沫论"便随之兴起。这种由预期差驱动的波动，在过去两三年里已成为市场常态，而非产业 趋势逆转的信号。 关于本轮"AI泡沫"的讨论与历史上的科技泡沫，特别是互联网泡沫有何根本区别？孔蓉表示，互联网的 核心价值在于"信息的连接"，它重塑了信息流通的方式，催生了平台经济。而人工智能的本质是"生产 力的提升"，它直接介入生产与创造过程， ...

来源：聪明投资者 "像2025年这样比较容易赚钱的年份不会太多，所以明年我觉得要降低预期。" "我的大概率判断是，中国会保持非常宽松的货币环境和流动性水平，这让股票市场中的优质公司的估 值是比较稳定的。" "在做投资时，要把核心要素的权重放的足够大，就是买对好公司。剩下的都是次要条件、次要因素， 权重很低。" "（产业板块的机会）未来半年到一年，在新能源（尤其是储能）和人工智能的应用（不管是软件还是 与硬件结合）可能会出现一些机会。" 景林资产管理合伙人、总经理高云程，近日在客户交流中回答了12个关注度很高的问题。 4、中国最强AI模型和公有云业务。在AI时代，想用AI，大部分企业必须用公有云； 5、运动，户外生活方式的品牌矩阵经营集团。公司的供应链和品牌运营能力在持续提升，肉眼可见的 和对手拉开了差距。 从行业角度来看，信息技术占到组合大半壁江山。 而从景林的投资风格来看，一向不拘泥于单一市场，A股港股美股都会涉及。用高云程的话说，"我们 更多的是自下而上选择公司，如果这个公司正好在港股就在港股买，在中概就在中概买，在A股就在A 股买。如果它在多个市场上市，我们就选择价格更便宜的市场。" 从三季末美股持仓数 ...

作者：MD 出品：明亮公司 近日， 挪 威主权财 富基 金 CEO Nicolai Tangen与著名经济学家、Breakout Capital 首席投资官 及 《资本主义出了什么问题》 （ What Went Wrong With Capitalism ） 一书的作者 Ruchir Sharma 进行了一场深度对话，剖析了重塑全球市场的宏观力量。 在这次访谈中，两人深入探讨了人工智能（ AI）如何成为美国经济增长的单一驱动力 。 Sharma指 出， 今年美国约 40%的经济增长来自AI相关的资本支出， 若算上股市带来的财富效应，这一比例 甚至高达 60%。尽管AI带来了生产力的希望，但Sharma也警告了潜在的泡沫风险，并将其与2000年 互联网泡沫进行了对比， 指出当前美国市场存在过度投资（ Over-investment）、过高估值（Over- valuation）和过度持有（Over-ownership）、过度杠杆（ Over-leverage） 的典型迹象。 对话还触及了令人意外的全球市场动态：尽管美国备受瞩目，但在 2025年，欧洲和 中国等国际市场 的表现实际上优于美国。 Sharma分析了中 ...

Michael Burry预警，美股将因被动投资主导而面临类似 2000 年的长期熊市。他押注Palantir在两年内会大幅下跌，因为这家高估值公司"几乎没赚 钱，却造就一堆亿万富翁"。他认为 AI 高成本将威胁谷歌搜索业务，且大模型服务将高度商品化。他称"我们并不需要美联储"，并透露自己持有黄金。 在对话中，Michael Burry对当前美股市场的展望持极度悲观态度，认为未来几年可能会迎来一场类似2000年的长期熊市。他判断，由于被动投资（指 数基金）占据市场主导地位（超过50%），未来市场下跌时将是"一体下跌"，在美国很难靠多头仓位保护自己。 Palantir 和英伟达是这个星球上最幸运的两家公司，它们一开始都没真正生产专门为 AI 设计的产品。 这轮泡沫会是什么样子？它和当年的"互联网泡沫"非常相似，但其实那轮并不完全是"互联网泡沫"，而更像是一场"数据传输泡沫"。 Burry将当前的AI投资热潮类比为2000年的"数据传输泡沫"，指出两者都存在资本开支与股市见顶的时滞。他押注Palantir在两年内会大幅下跌，看空的 核心理由是其不合理的估值和不健康的财务结构，特别是公司在收入不高的情况下，通过大量 ...

继续关注12月密集宏观事件及其可 能引发的市场情绪拐点 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 锰硅月报 2025/12/05 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 06 图形走势 产业链示意图 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结 ◆ 天津6517锰硅现货市场报价5720元/吨，环比+90元/吨，较上月初+20元/吨；期货主力（SM603）收盘报5796元/吨，环比+180元/吨，较上月 初-22元/吨；基差114元/吨，环比-90元/吨，基差率1.94%，处于历史统计值的相对中性水平。 ◆ 利润：锰硅测算即期利润（不含折旧等费用）维持低位，内蒙-565元/吨，环比+20元/吨，较上月初-147元/吨；宁夏-651元/吨，环比+30元 /吨，较上月初-147元/吨；广西-748元/吨，环比+127元/吨，较上月初-9元/吨。（利润为测算值，仅供参考） ◆ 成本：测算内蒙锰硅即期成本（不含折旧等费用)在6095元/吨，环比+10元/ ...

随着2025年接近尾声，华尔街又到了展望新一年的时刻，阿波罗全球管理公司（Apollo Global Management）的首席经济学家正密切关注市场和经济前景面临的几大关键风险。 在12月4日的报告中，阿波罗全球资本首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克（Torsten Sløk）带领的团队提出了 2026年投资者应重点关注的五大核心市场风险（包括上行和下行风险）。以下是他重点关注的内容： 1. 美国经济重拾增长动能 斯洛克近期表示，他认为2026年美国经济增长可能会再次加速，因为贸易战风险正在消退，而《大而美 法案》（One Big Beautiful Bill Act，简称OBBBA）有望提振需求。 这一情景下的风险在于，强劲的经济增长将催生新的通胀压力。物价若重新攀升，对市场而言将是不小 的麻烦——因为投资者的看涨逻辑核心是美联储持续降息，而如果通胀再度飙升，美联储降息的意愿将 会大幅下降。 斯洛克认为，市场对AI的乐观情绪可能被高估，2026年AI泡沫或将破裂。他表示，若出现这种情 况，"七巨头"（Magnificent 7）股票可能引发大幅市场回调，同时大型科技巨头的资本支出也会随之减 少。 5. 债券供 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS Securities analyst Xiong Wei believes that by 2026, the application cases of AI in China will become more abundant and the monetization pace will accelerate, indicating a low likelihood of an "AI bubble" in the current stage [1]. Group 1: AI Development in China - By 2025, investor interest and recognition of AI development in China are expected to increase due to advancements in large model technology, computing infrastructure, and the widespread adoption by enterprises and consumers [1]. - In 2026, domestic large model capabilities are anticipated to rapidly iterate, catching up with their American counterparts, while both China and the U.S. will follow similar monetization paths in AI applications, particularly in cloud services and advertising [1]. - The localization of computing power is expected to continue, with breakthroughs in chip performance, leading to supernodes taking a larger share of inference and training workloads [1]. Group 2: Factors Mitigating AI Bubble Risks - The limited cycle of financing is a key reason for the low likelihood of an "AI bubble," as leading AI model developers are funded by internal cash flows from parent companies rather than third-party financing [1]. - Major Chinese internet companies are adopting a pragmatic approach to AI investments, focusing on return on investment and operational efficiency rather than excessive initial spending [1]. - The stability of the Internet Data Center (IDC) deployment rate and regulatory control over new supply, including strict management of electricity quotas by the National Development and Reform Commission, help prevent overbuilding [1]. Group 3: AI Disruption in Vertical Industries - The discussion around AI's potential to disrupt vertical industries is increasing among investors, but the pace of disruption in China may remain slow due to a more fragmented landscape of AI chatbots compared to the dominance of ChatGPT and Gemini in the U.S. [2]. - Vertical industry companies are actively integrating AI and intelligent agents into their applications, but the high entry barriers in sectors like online travel agencies (OTA) and online music content and user operations make it difficult for AI to easily replace existing capabilities [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles suggests that concerns about an "AI bubble" in China are less pronounced compared to the U.S., primarily due to limited domestic financing and cautious capital expenditure [1] - UBS's report indicates that major Chinese cloud service providers' capital expenditures are significantly lower than their U.S. counterparts, with an estimated capital expenditure of approximately 400 billion yuan for 2025, about one-tenth of that of U.S. peers [2] - The IDC shelf rate in China remains stable, with regulatory controls on new supply contributing to this stability, indicating a steady migration of clients driven by genuine AI workloads [2] Group 2 - Citic Securities predicts a 60% probability of OpenAI facing operational challenges and a slowdown in AI investment, while breakthroughs in AI algorithms and unexpected inflation are considered low-probability events [2] - Alibaba's CEO discussed the AI bubble, asserting that there is a high demand for AI resources, and the planned investment of 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure may be insufficient [3] - UBS forecasts that by 2026, domestic large model capabilities will rapidly iterate to catch up with U.S. counterparts, with AI use cases becoming more diverse and monetization accelerating [3] Group 3 - The integration of apps into ChatGPT by OpenAI has sparked discussions about AI's potential to disrupt vertical industries, but UBS believes that the pace of disruption in China may be slower due to a more fragmented landscape [4] - Vertical companies are actively adding AI and intelligent agent features to their apps, but the entry barriers in these sectors remain high [4]

原本有望由汽车和奢侈品牌复苏主导的法国和德国企业利润全面回升，如今看起来正面临愈发严峻的风险。Bloomberg Intelligence汇编的统计数据显示，近期市场对今年以来屡创历史新高的法国CAC40指数和德国DAX指数明年的盈利预 期持续下调，而对欧洲其他区域性基准股票指数的盈利预期则在上调，这也解释了为何上半年屡创新高的法德基准股 指自10月以来持续回调，但是其他欧洲基准股指仍处于上行轨迹。 据了解，与医疗保健权重较高的瑞士SMI指数以及金融板块主导的西班牙IBEX指数相比，法国和德国的基准指数在成 分结构上，对非必需消费与工业板块的权重更高——这两个行业在明年恐怕难以完全兑现市场给出的高预期，而医疗 与金融这两大长期以来的股票市场价值板块近期表现非常强劲，且分析师对于瑞士和西班牙市场的预期持续上修，带 动瑞士与西班牙股市在11月大幅跑赢法德以及欧洲股市基准股指——斯托克600指数。 来自德意志银行的分析师Adam Cochrane表示："股价修复的速度以及投资者对新任CEO将带来的业绩大幅改善前景都 令人印象深刻，但也存在一种风险，即市场一致预期可能跑得过快。"他补充表示，预计在该公司明年公布中长期 ...