Group 1: Japan and US Trade Negotiations - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and US President Trump failed to reach a consensus on tariff negotiations during their meeting at the G7 summit, raising concerns about Japan's economic stability and potential recession due to US tariffs [1][4][6] - Japan is seeking the complete removal of tariffs imposed by the US, particularly the 25% tariff on Japanese automobile exports, which is critical for Japan's economy [5][7] - The failure to reach an agreement may lead to questions regarding Ishiba's leadership ahead of Japan's upcoming Senate elections, as the tariffs directly impact Japan's most important exports [6][8] Group 2: EU and US Tariff Discussions - The EU has stated it is not prepared to accept the US's proposed 10% global tariff, with ongoing negotiations but no agreement reached yet [3][9] - EU officials emphasize the preference for a balanced and mutually beneficial outcome, while also preparing for all options if negotiations fail [10] - The EU is under pressure from the US's threat of increased tariffs if no agreement is reached by July 9, which could significantly impact their trade relationship valued at nearly $2 trillion [10] Group 3: India and US Trade Talks - The Indian government is seeking assurances from the US that no additional tariffs will be imposed once a bilateral trade agreement is finalized, with ongoing negotiations showing a hardening of positions from both sides [2][11] - India aims to include a clause in the agreement that allows for renegotiation or compensation if the US raises tariffs in the future, ensuring stability in trade relations [11][12] - Key issues in the negotiations include US demands for India to open its market for genetically modified crops and to eliminate tariffs on medical devices, which have led to intense discussions [11][12]

日本央行行长植田和男：如果关税谈判被推迟，我们对不确定性的看法也将继续存在。 ...

Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - The U.S. is negotiating with Mexico to allow tax-free imports of steel as long as the total shipment volume is controlled below historical trade levels, with the new cap being higher than a previous agreement during Trump's first term [2] - The EU is conditionally accepting a 10% uniform tariff proposed by the U.S., aiming to avoid higher tariffs on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and microelectronics, although the EU spokesperson denied the claims as speculation [4] - Thailand's Commerce Minister expressed optimism about reaching a trade agreement with the U.S. that could lower tariffs to 10%, with discussions expected to take place via video conference [6] Group 2: Export Controls and Technology Restrictions - Taiwan has placed Huawei and SMIC on an export blacklist, affecting their subsidiaries globally, which requires licenses for Taiwanese firms to export to these companies [8] - New restrictions from Taiwan may limit Huawei and SMIC's access to essential technologies, materials, and equipment for semiconductor manufacturing [10] - The Taiwanese government's actions mark a significant shift, as it has previously prohibited the export of critical chip manufacturing equipment to mainland China, now directly blacklisting major tech firms [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1][2] - Iron Ore: Sideways to Bearish [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [5][6][7] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy Provided [8][9] Core Views - Steel market sentiment is cautious, and steel prices are oscillating. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant currently, and future focus is on Sino - US tariff negotiations and domestic demand stimulus policies [1] - Iron ore is in the shipping peak season, with an overall supply recovery trend. In the long - term, the supply - demand is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the molten iron output in the off - season and inventory changes [3] - Coking coal and coke futures prices are oscillating. Although the supply - demand relationship has improved to some extent, the long - term supply is still loose, and the price rebound is restricted [5][6] - Thermal coal prices lack demand support in the short - term, and the supply is loose in the long - term. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the rebar futures main contract closed at 2,990 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3,104 yuan/ton. The national steel city inventory was 3.6911 million tons, a 3.59% week - on - week decrease; the hot - rolled coil inventory was 1.696 million tons, a 3.09% week - on - week decrease. The national building materials transaction volume was 110,200 tons. Rebar is in the consumption off - season, and weak demand will suppress prices. Hot - rolled coil has better profits and stronger production and sales resilience, but there are concerns about future consumption after the export rush fades [1] - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price oscillated narrowly. The main 2509 contract closed at 704.5 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were basically stable. The total national main port iron ore trading volume was 973,000 tons, a 21.47% week - on - week increase; the forward spot trading volume was 870,000 tons, a 7.45% week - on - week decrease. The global iron ore shipping volume decreased slightly to 33.53 million tons, and the 45 - port arrival volume was 23.845 million tons, an 8.6% week - on - week decrease [3] - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1,371 yuan, up 1.90%; the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 795.5 yuan, up 2.84%. The imported Mongolian coal spot price was weaker than the futures price. Coke supply is decreasing due to narrowing profits and environmental policies, and there is a price cut expectation. Coking coal supply has decreased due to some mines' production restrictions, and downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing [5][6] - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In May, the industrial raw coal output was 4 billion tons, a 4.2% year - on - year increase. In Shanxi, environmental inspections have been upgraded, and the estimated production suspension capacity is about 10.5 million tons. The market demand is average, and the price is in a stalemate. The port market trading is sluggish, and the downstream demand is poor. The high - calorie imported coal price is firm, while the low - calorie price is falling [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The index has stable support below but faces pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is still ongoing, and the index is affected by news in the short - term [2]. - The May economic data is mixed and difficult to provide clear direction. Future focus should be on tax periods and cross - half - year capital conditions [2]. - Geopolitical situations and Fed decisions impact gold, oil, and other commodity prices. The market has digested the Middle - East geopolitical risk, causing prices to decline [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Stock Index Futures - A - shares opened lower and closed higher, with TMT sectors rising. It is recommended to wait and consider selling put options with an exercise price of 5800 in July to earn premium [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - It is advisable to allocate long positions on dips as the 1.6% is the downward resistance level for the 10 - year bond yield [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, if the Israel - Iran conflict escalates and the price approaches the previous high of $3450 (800 yuan), or if the risk - aversion sentiment weakens and the price fails to break through the previous high, sell out - of - the - money call options [2]. Shipping Index Futures - Be cautious and wait, or consider the 12 - 10 reverse spread opportunity for the container shipping index (European line) [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - For steel, wait and consider the long - steel short - raw material spread operation. For iron ore, try shorting on rebounds with a resistance level around 720 [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - Consider the long - coking coal short - coke strategy. Coking coal's market is improving, while coke has a continued downward adjustment expectation and is close to the bottom [2]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are in bottom - range oscillations. Try shorting on rebounds to 5300 - 5400 for ferrosilicon and 5700 - 5800 for manganese silicon [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper's domestic spot trading is weak, and the US is replenishing stocks. Zinc's price center is moving down, and inventory reduction supports the price. Nickel and stainless steel are in narrow - range oscillations. Tin is in a high - level oscillation, and it is advisable to short on highs based on supply and inventory data [2]. Crude Oil - Wait and see. The resistance levels are [73, 74] for WTI, [74, 75] for Brent, and [530, 540] for SC [2]. Chemicals - For urea, take a bullish view in the short - term and consider positive spreads. PX is expected to oscillate between 6500 - 6900. PTA is in a stalemate oscillation, and it is advisable to operate in the 4500 - 4800 range [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and related products, the market is oscillating. For palm oil, it may optimistically reach 8600 in the short - term. For sugar, cotton, and eggs, short on rebounds [2]. Special Commodities - For soda ash, maintain the short - on - rebounds strategy. For glass, short in the short - term. For rubber, hold short positions [2]. Industrial Silicon and New Energy - related Commodities - Industrial silicon is in a low - level oscillation. For polysilicon, hold short positions cautiously. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to operate between 56,000 - 62,000 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The discussions between Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and U.S. President Trump regarding tariff issues remain unresolved, particularly concerning automobile tariffs, indicating ongoing negotiations are necessary [1][2]. Group 1: Meeting Details - The meeting lasted for 30 minutes and took place during the G7 summit in Canada, marking Ishiba's second face-to-face attempt to reach an agreement on tariffs since his visit to Washington in February [3]. - Ishiba expressed the importance of maintaining Japan's national interests while striving for a mutually beneficial relationship with the U.S. [2]. Group 2: Tariff Negotiations - Japan initiated ministerial-level tariff negotiations with the U.S. in April, viewing the G7 summit as a critical point for discussions [4]. - The U.S. currently imposes a 25% tariff on Japanese automobiles and parts, along with a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, and additional tariffs totaling 24% on various imports [4]. Group 3: Investment and Economic Contributions - Ishiba highlighted Japan's status as the largest investor in the U.S. and emphasized the job creation contributions of Japanese companies in the U.S. [2]. - The discussions included Japan's intention to enhance investments in the U.S. as part of a strategy to foster a win-win relationship [2]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - Japan is also looking to collaborate with the U.S. on issues related to supply chains in rare earths and semiconductors, which the U.S. considers significant [6]. - The Japanese government is re-evaluating its domestic automotive safety review methods, which the U.S. views as non-tariff barriers [6].

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 17 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货6月12日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 120.460 | 120.650 | 120.520 | 120.530 | 0.060 | 0.05 | ...

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 06 16 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 5 月社融有喜有忧，怎么看、怎么办？ 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】高频半月观—地产、价格等内需指标进一步走弱——20250615 【宏观】5 月社融有喜有忧，怎么看、怎么办？——20250613 【金融工程】中证 500、中证 1000 确认日线级别上涨——20250615 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：信用方向转为上行趋势——20250614 【固定收益】新的做多力量会来自何方？——20250615 【固定收益】资金宽松，曲线下移——流动性和机构行为跟踪—— 20250614 【固定收益】融资弱资金宽，债市继续走强——20250614 【家用电器】从绿联科技、安克创新看"浅海品类"明星公司的成长之路 ——20250615 【银行】本周聚焦—5 月社融数据：政府债支撑社融，新发放贷款利率保 持不变——20250615 【电子】胜宏科技（300476.SZ）-全球 AI PCB 龙头，深度受益 GPU+ASIC 需求提升——20250615 ◼ 研究视点 【能源】跨省跨区电力应急调度新规出台，"疆电入渝"首批电源 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides operation suggestions for various futures contracts across different sectors, including stock index, treasury bond, precious metal, shipping, steel, energy, chemical, agricultural products, and new energy, based on their respective market conditions and trends [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - A-share market opened lower, oscillated, and showed differentiation, with finance and consumption sectors performing better. Index futures have stable lower support but face upward breakthrough pressure, and are affected by tariff negotiations and news in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bond futures showed differentiated trends, with ultra-long bonds performing strongly. Attention should be paid to tax periods and cross - half - year liquidity. For the 10 - year bond, 1.6% is the downward resistance level. In the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to appropriately allocate long positions on dips, and in the cash - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of TS2509 [2]. Precious Metal - Gold is in a short - term range - bound oscillation, with a possibility of hitting the $3400 mark. A double - selling strategy for gold options can be used to earn time value. Attention should be paid to the flow of speculative funds in silver, and long positions should temporarily exit [2]. Shipping - The main contract of the container shipping index (European line) is oscillating. It is considered to buy on dips or focus on the 12 - 10 reverse arbitrage opportunity [2]. Steel - Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. For steel, unilateral operation should wait and see, and pay attention to the long - steel short - raw material arbitrage operation. Iron ore is in a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the marginal change in terminal demand [2]. Energy and Chemical - For crude oil, consider buying on dips for the main contract or focus on the 12 - 10 reverse arbitrage opportunity. For various chemical products, different operation suggestions are given according to their supply - demand and price trends, such as short - selling on rallies for some products and range - bound operation for others [2][3]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural product futures have different trends. For example, sugar is recommended to be short - sold on rallies, and palm oil may test the 7800 support level [3]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures increased in positions and declined, and short positions should be held. Lithium carbonate futures are under pressure and are expected to run in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [4].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term uncertainties for gold are numerous, and it is in a high - level oscillation. The strategic allocation value of gold is high in the long - term. Silver is also in a high - level oscillation, and its market sentiment changes rapidly. Copper is in a high - level consolidation in the short - term, and it is still favored in the long - term. Zinc's rebound is under pressure, with supply increasing and demand weakening. Lead shows a short - term rebound. Tin's rebound is under pressure due to slow复产 and weak smelting. Aluminum has a short - term rebound. Nickel is under pressure to decline. Industrial silicon's short - term disk rebounds from oversold, and it is advisable to short at high prices in the long - term. Carbonate lithium is bearish [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - **Market Conditions**: SHFE gold was at 785.16, up 0.98% from the previous value, and COMEX gold was at 3406, up 0.90%. SHFE silver was at 8819, down 0.93%, and COMEX silver was at 36, up 0.14%. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio was 89.03, up 1.93%. The London gold spot price was $3295, down 1.04%, and the London silver spot price was $33.124, down 8.50% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US employment and inflation data are weak. Tariff uncertainties are large, and the UK economy has shrunk. In the short - term, geopolitical variables are significant, and in the long - term, the trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - easing of fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged [3]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For gold, pay attention to the support at 770 and control positions for long - term investment. For silver, its speculative sentiment has temporarily returned. If the price - ratio returns to normal, it will follow the characteristics of gold and base metals. Control positions due to its high elasticity [4]. Copper - **Market Conditions**: The closing price of the SHFE copper main contract was 78580 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. The LME copper price was $9702/ton, up 0.56%, and the COMEX copper price was $484.3/pound, up 0.76%. The spot price of electrolytic copper was 79200 yuan/ton, down 0.28% [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper ore supply is tight. The domestic electrolytic copper output in May increased, but it is expected to decline in June. COMEX copper is draining global copper inventories, and there is a risk of a soft squeeze on LME copper. High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand [6]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Wait for copper to fully retrace and stabilize. Observe the support at the 78,000 - yuan level. For industrial hedging, sell at high prices. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper [7]. The short - term range for SHFE copper is [78000, 79500], and for LME copper is [9600, 9800] dollars/ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22030 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. The LME zinc price was $2644/ton, down 0.26%. The spot price of No. 0 zinc was 22310 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. The domestic refined zinc output is expected to increase in June. Downstream demand is weakening, and the开工 rate of zinc - related enterprises is lower than in previous years [10]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Temporarily wait and see in the short - term. In the long - term, short at high prices as supply increases and demand weakens. The range for SHFE zinc is [21800, 22400], and for LME zinc is [2600, 2700] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: The closing price of the LME aluminum was $2522.5/ton, up 0.24%. The SHFE aluminum main contract was 20395 yuan/ton, up 0.72%. The alumina main contract was 2895 yuan/ton, unchanged. The SMM A00 aluminum spot average price was 20650 yuan/ton, up 1.23% [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - trade environment eases, production costs decline, and inventories decrease. For alumina, the overseas bauxite supply is stable, and the domestic production capacity is recovering. There is a short - term supply surplus [13]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Short on rebounds for SHFE aluminum and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [19900, 20500]. Alumina operates in a low - level range [13]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel prices continued to decline, and stainless steel was under pressure [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: The overseas macro - environment eases. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines increases, and the cost support weakens. Domestic refined nickel inventory is high, and stainless steel inventory is rising due to the off - season [14]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [118000, 123000] [14]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Conditions**: The main contract LC2507 decreased in position and dropped more than 1% throughout the day [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamentals change little. The supply pressure is large, and the terminal demand is in the off - season. The inventory is expected to accumulate, and the rebound's sustainability is questionable [16]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Hold short positions in the range of [60000, 61500] [16].