随着李在明的上台以及新一轮预算案出台的前景，海外投行已纷纷上调韩国今年的经济增长预期。 据新华社援引韩国总统府消息，韩国总统李在明6月6日与美国总统特朗普通话，谈及韩美关系、经贸磋 商等话题。这是李在明就任韩国总统后首次与特朗普通话。在约20分钟的通话中，特朗普祝贺李在明当 选韩国总统，同时邀请他访美。 4日正式宣誓就职后，李在明已下达"一号行政令"，要求组建"紧急经济检查工作组"，着手提振韩国经 济。李在明强调，韩国目前正面临民生、经济等多重困境，韩国新一届政府将大力发展人工智能、半导 体等高科技产业、持续加大投入，提升韩国企业竞争力，积极创造就业机会并将努力消除地域发展不均 衡等问题。 惠誉评级亚太区主权评级董事杰瑞米·祖克（Jeremy Zook）告诉第一财经，李在明成为韩国新一届总 统，会减少韩国国内的政治波动并提高政府在短期内政策实施的能力。"此次总统选举的结果意味着， 结束了此前总统和立法机构隶属于不同政党的局面。至少在2028年国民议会选举之前，韩国政坛将维持 现状。" 李在明的上任也让韩国资本市场吃了定心丸。自4日以来，韩国基准股指KOSPI上涨超4%，较4月低点 反弹超20%逼近牛市，一度触 ...

日本媒体突然披露：和特朗普政府谈判关税不是一般的难，关键问题不是他们"狮子大开口"，提出的条 件太离谱，而是他们内部意见经常不一致，当着日方谈判代表的面，经常会自己吵起来，最终什么也谈 不成！ 据了解，前几次谈判几乎都出现了这样的场景，日本也很无奈，如果再按照这样的情况往下谈，日本自 己也不清楚，在"90天缓冲期"到来前，能和美国谈出一个结果吗？ 在谈判中，美国人竟然能自己吵起来 目前日本首席谈判代表赤泽亮正在华盛顿与美方进行第5轮关税谈判。6月6日清晨，他已与美国商务部 长卢特尼克举行了约两小时的部长级会谈，6月6日晚间将与财长贝森特会谈。随着特朗普先前给予 的"缓冲期"已过去大半，对日本而言，时间确实有点紧张，而之前美日已经进行了4轮谈判，算时间的 话，这次的谈判应该可以有一个结果，退一万步讲，至少也应该完成了一大部分谈判。 但这种想法是错误的，日媒直接对此摇了摇头。根据"日经亚洲"的说法，和特朗普政府谈判实在太难 了，负责关税谈判的三大核心人物的立场差异大，有时候他们自己甚至都会在现场当着赤泽亮正的面吵 起来，而后者只能在现场尴尬地看着他们争辩。最后一看他们三人的意见无法达成一致，赤泽亮正明 白，可能自 ...

泰国财长：美国同意与泰国进行关税谈判。关税谈判日期待确定。 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market saw a significant rise, with all three major indices increasing by over 1% due to a positive employment report indicating resilience in the labor market despite tariff pressures from President Trump [2][3] - The employment report revealed that 139,000 jobs were added in May, surpassing the market expectation of 125,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [3] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.5% for the week, the Dow Jones increased by 1.2%, and the Nasdaq gained 2.2% during the same period [2] Interest Rates and Treasury Yields - Mid to long-term U.S. Treasury yields surged, with the 2-year Treasury yield rising by 11.5 basis points to 4.03% and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield also increasing by 11.5 basis points to 4.50% [3] Individual Stock Performance - Notable individual stock movements included Apple rising by 1.6% following a positive report from Wedbush regarding its developer conference, which is crucial for its AI monetization phase [4] - Tesla rebounded by 3.8%, with market attention on the evolving relationship between Trump and Musk [4] - Other tech stocks performed well, with Google up 3.2%, Amazon up 2.7%, Meta up 1.9%, Nvidia up 1.2%, and Microsoft up 0.6%, all reaching new closing highs [4] Energy Market - International oil prices rebounded, supported by wildfires in Alberta, Canada, which led to temporary shutdowns of production facilities [4] - WTI crude oil near-month contract rose by 1.91% to $64.58 per barrel, while Brent crude oil near-month contract increased by 1.13% to $66.47 per barrel [4] Gold Market - International gold prices faced downward pressure, with three-month gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange dropping by 1.3% to $3,330.70 per ounce [5]

【环球时报综合报道】6月5日，日本首席贸易谈判代表、经济再生大臣赤泽亮正前往美国参加第五轮日 美关税谈判。《日经亚洲》当天报道称，日方将在与美关税谈判中提出针对中国的一揽子合作方案，重 点聚焦因中美紧张局势而中断的中国稀土和美国液化天然气供应链，日方希望以此为重点与美国展开合 作。报道认为，在美国政府将中国视为关税战"最大目标"的背景下，日方推出这种具有"针对性的方 案"试图争取美方在关税问题上的让步。 报道称，日本在稀土加工、回收利用及减少用量方面具有优势。日本此次的一项提议是向美国提供这些 技术，并帮助美国利用在全球开采的稀土。日本政府还探索在石墨和镓领域开展类似合作。此外，扩大 进口美国液化天然气也在考虑范围内，目前已提出支持阿拉斯加新项目开发以及路易斯安那州和得州增 产的提议。日本还计划从包括英伟达在内的美国公司购买数十亿美元的半导体产品。鉴于美国正加强本 土芯片制造能力，日本将考虑协助生产芯片制造所需的晶圆等材料。在造船领域，日本计划考虑"以中 国为考量因素"，与美国联合建造破冰船。 日本《产经新闻》6日报道称，正在华盛顿访问的赤泽亮正于当地时间5日与美国商务部长卢特尼克举行 会谈。双方一致表示将" ...

特朗普关税谈判团队发生"内斗"了？ 美国财长贝森特、商务部长卢特尼克和贸易代表格里尔之间的分歧和竞争，正让美日贸易谈判陷入"三 头马车"困局。 据媒体6月6日援引接近谈判的消息人士透露，美方三位高官之间的公开分歧已经严重影响了谈判进程： "有一次，三位内阁官员在日方面前暂停了与日方的谈判，开始当面争论。" 更令日方困惑的是，三人有时会分别向日本施压要求让步，缺乏统一的策略和立场。 这种内部分歧并非偶然。另一位接近日本政府的消息人士推测，他们可能在试图讨好特朗普总统。值得 注意的是，Bessent和Lutnick曾是财政部长职位的竞争对手，这种历史恩怨可能延续到了贸易谈判中。 立场迥异的"三重奏" 三位官员的贸易理念存在根本性差异。特朗普指定贝森特领导关税谈判，这位前对冲基金高管被视为具 有市场意识的温和派。 相比之下，卢特尼克在贸易问题上以强硬派著称。在接受媒体采访时，他曾表示即使关税导致经济衰退 也是"值得的"。 格里尔名义上是美国贸易政策的负责官员。他是第一届特朗普政府贸易代表Robert Lighthizer的得力助 手。然而这一次，格里尔的角色有所削弱，特朗普此前曾表示卢特尼克直接负责贸易代表办公室。 ...

【文/观察者网 王一】《日经亚洲评论》6月6日报道称，接近日美关税谈判的消息人士抱怨，美国财政 部长斯科特·贝森特、商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克和贸易代表贾米森·格里尔在贸易问题上持有不同立场， 他们之间的公开分歧、竞争和混乱，让日方很难判断美方的真实意图。 一位消息人士称，"3位内阁官员在与日方的会谈一度暂停，开始当面辩论"。 一位参与谈判的人士透露，"峰会没有做出决定之前，什么都不会决定"。 上月底石破茂与特朗普通话时，确认拟在6月15日至17日加拿大七国集团领导人峰会期间，在场边举行 面对面会谈，以期尽早达成协议。 从左至右依次为：美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔、商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克、财政部长斯科特·贝森特以 及日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正共同社 贝森特和卢特尼克都曾是财政部长一职的候选人，现在两人虽然职位不同，但都参与了关税谈判。贝森 特被认为是一位注重市场的温和派，美国《纽约时报》称他在说服特朗普暂停90天征收关税中发挥了作 用。而卢特尼克以强硬的贸易立场著称，他在采访中曾表示，即使提高关税会导致经济衰退，也是"值 得的"。格里尔在特朗普第一届政府中曾担任时任美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽的助手，深度参与 ...

4月初，受美国推出所谓"对等关税"与OPEC+意外增产的双重影响，国际油价自75美元／桶一路跌破多 个重要支撑位，且两度下探至4年低点58美元／桶附近，跌幅超过20%，在众多风险资产中表现最为突 出。此后，随着贸易摩擦阶段性缓和，OPEC+延续加速投产，地缘局势动荡无序反复，原油消费开始 触底回升，油价在宏观、产业多空因素交织的复杂背景下进入区间窄幅震荡阶段，波动幅度缩小但节奏 凌乱。 供应端：在主动增产与被动减产中寻求平衡 5月31日，OPEC+的8个产油国宣布7月将继续增产，日产量增加41.1万桶。这是OPEC+连续第三个月加 快扩产步伐，4—7月累计恢复生产配额137万桶／日，此规模较最初计划提前半年达成，且在过去一段 时间内持续对油价走势形成抑制。 整体来看，OPEC+持续增产，一方面是为兑现复产承诺，另一方面也是因哈萨克斯坦等国超产而采取 的无奈惩罚措施。随着增产及油价下跌，这两个诉求均已达成。在本次会议上，俄罗斯、阿尔及利亚和 阿曼首次提出暂停增产，这一反对声音为未来OPEC+产量政策的调整预留了想象空间。 此外，基于各国生产情况、过往生产纪律以及后续补偿减产计划进行测算，到7月，这8个产油国的实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Johnson, emphasized the complexity of tariff negotiations and the necessity for free and fair trade, stating that now is an opportune time to invest in the United States [1] Group 1 - The complexity of tariff negotiations indicates potential challenges in international trade relations [1] - The call for free and fair trade suggests a focus on equitable market practices, which could impact various industries [1] - The assertion that it is a good time to invest in the U.S. highlights potential growth opportunities in the domestic market [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The index has stable support below and high pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is still ongoing, and the index fluctuates in the short - term due to news, but the export chain is heating up and the stock index continues to rebound. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond rates are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges, and the treasury bond market may show a narrow - range oscillation. Gold forms a "double - top" pattern with resistance at the previous high of $3430, and silver may冲击 the high - level resistance of $34.8. The CMA of the container shipping index (European line) continues to raise prices in July, and the steel industry's demand and inventory are deteriorating. The iron ore is in a range - bound state, and the prices of coke and coking coal may continue to decline. The supply of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon has different situations, and the prices of copper and tin are affected by different factors. The oil price is dragged down by supply concerns, and the prices of various chemical and agricultural products are also affected by different supply - demand and market factors [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The index has stable support below and high pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is ongoing, and the index is affected by news in the short - term. The export chain is heating up, and the stock index continues to rebound. After the volatility subsides, it will continue to oscillate neutrally. It is recommended to wait and see, and try to go long on the CSI 1000 index in the range of 5800 - 5900 [2]. Treasury Bond - The 10 - year treasury bond rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.75%, and the 30 - year treasury bond rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.8% - 1.95%. In the short - term, the market lacks driving forces, and the treasury bond market may show a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to conduct interval - band operations, and currently, the odds are limited, so it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Precious Metals - Gold forms a "double - top" pattern with resistance at the previous high of $3430. It may have a pulse - type rise affected by news in the short - term. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold options on both sides can be adopted to earn time value. Silver may冲击 the high - level resistance of $34.8 after breaking through the previous high resistance of $33.5, and beware of long - position profit - taking at high levels [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The CMA continues to raise prices in July, and the market oscillates upwards. It is considered to go long on the 08 contract at low prices [2]. Steel - The demand and inventory of industrial materials are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on the arbitrage operation of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. Iron Ore - It is in a range - bound state, with a reference range of 700 - 745. Pay attention to the marginal change in terminal demand [2]. Coke - The third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills started on June 4th. The coking coal is weakly conceding profits, and the coke price may continue to decline. It is recommended to short after the price rebounds [2]. Coking Coal - The market auction continues to be cold, the coal mine production is at a high level, and the inventory is at a high level. The spot price may still decline, but the expectation has improved. It is recommended to short after the price rebounds [2]. Silicon - Iron - The large - scale factories in Ningxia have resumed production, and the cost side has rebounded and repaired. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Manganese - Silicon - The shipment from Groote Eylandt has resumed, but the supply of manganese - silicon still has weak driving forces. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Copper - The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [2]. Tin - The resumption of production in Myanmar is slow, and the short - term shortage of tin ore boosts the tin price. It can be considered to try to go long [2]. Crude Oil - Saudi Arabia's willingness to increase production remains strong, and the increase in EIA refined oil inventory has aggravated the long - term supply concerns, dragging down the oil price. In the long - term, a band - trading strategy is still recommended. In the short - term, it is necessary to observe whether the macro - environment eases before making long or short positions. The fluctuation range of WTI is given as [59, 69], Brent as [61, 71], and SC as [440, 500]. Options can buy a straddle structure to capture the opportunity of increased volatility after the holiday [2]. Urea - In the short - term, the upstream continues to tighten inventory, and the export scale is difficult to increase for the time being, providing limited support to the market. In the long - term, a band - trading strategy is adopted. In the short - term, the market oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and wait for the rebound opportunity. The main contract should pay attention to the support around [1730, 1750] [2]. PX - The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, and the price is under pressure, but the tight spot market still provides support. In the short - term, pay attention to the support around 6500; focus on the reverse - arbitrage opportunity for PX9 - 1; shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2]. PTA - The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, but the raw material support is strong. In the short - term, it still has support. In the short - term, pay attention to the support around 4600; mainly conduct reverse - arbitrage for TA9 - 1 [2]. Short - Fiber - Some factories have reduced contracts, and the short - term processing fee has been repaired. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA; mainly expand the processing fee on the PF futures market when it is low [2]. Bottle - Chip - During the peak demand season, there is an expectation of production reduction for bottle - chips, and the processing fee is supported. PR follows the cost fluctuation. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA; the main contract's processing fee on the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand it at the lower limit of the range [2]. Ethanol - The port inventory continues to decline. Pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunity. EG09 pays attention to the opportunity to go long at around 4200; conduct positive - arbitrage for EG9 - 1 at low prices [2]. Styrene - With the expectation of gradually weakening supply - demand, the price is under pressure. Adopt a high - short strategy [2]. Caustic Soda - The alumina procurement supports the spot market. Pay attention to the marginal pressure of supply - demand and the warehouse receipts. Before the fundamental situation weakens significantly or the warehouse receipts flow out, still pay attention to the opportunity to expand the spread between the near - month and the 09 contract [2]. PVC - The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to effectively relieve. Pay attention to the change in India's BIS policy in June. Adopt a high - short strategy, and the operating range is 4500 - 5000 [2]. Synthetic Rubber - BR follows the commodity rebound. Hold the short position of BR2507 [2]. LLDPE - The spot price rises with the futures market, and the trading volume is moderate. It is in an oscillating state [2]. PP - The supply and demand are both weak, and it oscillates weakly. Adopt a high - short strategy [2]. Methanol - The inventory inflection point has appeared, and it is in an oscillating state [2]. Grains - The CBOT has stabilized and rebounded, and the two grains oscillate. M2509 oscillates in the range of 2900 - 3000 [2]. Live Pig - The demand is weak after the holiday, and the spot price is under pressure again. Pay attention to the support at 13500 [2]. Corn - The spot price is relatively stable, and the corn oscillates in a narrow range. It oscillates around 2330 in the short - term [2]. Palm Oil - The palm oil inventory may increase significantly, suppressing the increase in the market. Test the support at 8000 in the short - term [2]. White Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2]. Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. Egg - The spot price may weaken again. Short - sell on rebounds for the 07 contract and hold the short position [2]. Apple - It is in the off - season of demand, and the trading follows the market. The main contract operates around 7700 [2]. Orange Juice - The market price is weakly stable. It is in the process of bottom - building [2]. Peanut - The market price oscillates. The main contract operates around 8400 [2]. Special Commodities - For soda ash, the oversupply logic continues. Adopt a high - short strategy on rebounds and hold the short position. Conduct positive - arbitrage for the 7 - 9 spread. For glass, the market sentiment has reversed, and the futures price rebounds. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds. For rubber, the market sentiment has improved, and the rubber price rebounds slightly. Hold the short position and pay attention to the support at the 13000 level. For industrial silicon, the short - position closing on the industrial silicon futures market leads to a rebound. If there is a short position, it is recommended to close it. For polysilicon, although the warehouse receipts increase, the polysilicon futures price rebounds. If there is a long position, it is recommended to hold it carefully. For lithium carbonate, the sentiment improves, and the intraday futures price rebounds significantly, but the fundamental logic has not reversed. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - For zinc, the supply increase is less than expected, which supports the price. Pay attention to the inventory change. The main contract refers to the range of 21500 - 23500. For nickel, the sentiment improves, and the futures price oscillates and recovers, with little change in the fundamentals. The main contract refers to the range of 118000 - 126000. For stainless steel, the futures price mainly oscillates, with cost support and supply - demand contradictions still existing. The main contract refers to the range of 12600 - 13200 [3].