1. General Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, meals, corn, and hogs, dated July 1, 2025 [1][4][6][7][11][13][16] 2. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports 3. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil futures may face downward pressure to seek support around 3,800 ringgit; Dalian palm oil futures may seek support at the annual line of 8,200 yuan [2] - Soybean oil: Weak crude oil and US soybean's good growing conditions affect CBOT soybean and soybean oil; domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to increase, and the spot basis is under pressure [2] Sugar - Global sugar supply is becoming looser, capping the upside of raw sugar prices; domestic sugar market may maintain a bullish sentiment in the short - term but turn bearish after the rebound due to expected import increase [5] Cotton - The tight supply of old - crop cotton persists in the short - term, but the long - term supply is sufficient; downstream demand is weak, so cotton prices are likely to range - bound [6] Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, demand is average, and prices may remain stable first, decline slightly in the short - term, and then stabilize [8] Meals - US soybean planting area was slightly lowered, with a neutral impact; Brazilian soybean market is boosted; domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is stable. Pay attention to demand sustainability and look for long opportunities on dips [11] Corn - Corn supply is tight, and prices are rising steadily in the spot market. Although there are some factors limiting the increase, the long - term supply - demand gap supports price increases. Pay attention to the corn auction and wheat market [13][15] Hogs - The spot price of hogs is still in a range - bound pattern. The market sentiment may be bullish in the short - term, but there is a risk of price decline for the 09 contract if the inventory moves backward [16][17] 4. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8,240 yuan, down 0.60% from the previous value; the futures price of Y2509 is 7,984 yuan, down 0.22%; the basis is 256 yuan, down 11.11%; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 9.00% [2] - **Palm oil**: The current price in Guangdong is 8,400 yuan, down 1.18%; the futures price of P2509 is 8,330 yuan, down 0.55%; the basis is 70 yuan, down 43.55%; the import profit in Guangzhou Port in September decreased by 4.79% [2] - **Rapeseed oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8,080 yuan, down 0.73%; the futures price of 01509 is 9,415 yuan, down 0.54%; the basis is 165 yuan, down 10.33% [2] Sugar - **Futures market**: The price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.50%, and sugar 2509 increased by 0.26%; ICE raw sugar decreased by 3.00%; the 1 - 9 spread increased by 6.77% [5] - **Spot market**: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.16%, and in Kunming increased by 0.08%; the basis in Nanning decreased by 8.39%, and in Kunming decreased by 10.20% [5] - **Industry situation**: National sugar production increased by 12.03%, sales increased by 23.07%, and the inventory decreased by 9.56% [5] Cotton - **Futures market**: The price of cotton 2509 decreased by 0.15%, and cotton 2601 decreased by 0.04%; ICE US cotton decreased by 1.85%; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 300.00% [6] - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.43%, and CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.30% [6] - **Industry situation**: Industrial inventory decreased by 1.2%, imports decreased by 33.3%, and textile exports showed mixed performance [6] Eggs - **Futures market**: The price of the egg 09 contract increased by 0.44%, and the 07 contract increased by 0.64%; the basis decreased by 20.78%, and the 9 - 7 spread decreased by 0.23% [7] - **Spot market**: The egg price in the production area decreased by 4.90% [7] - **Related indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicks remained unchanged, the price of culled hens increased by 4.05%, and the egg - feed ratio decreased by 3.86% [7] Meals - **Soybean meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2,840 yuan, up 0.71%; the futures price of M2509 is 2,961 yuan, up 0.51%; the basis is - 121 yuan, up 3.97%; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 13.3% [11] - **Rapeseed meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2,470 yuan, up 1.65%; the futures price of RM2509 is 2,572 yuan, up 0.51%; the basis is - 102 yuan, up 20.93%; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 3.17% [11] - **Soybean**: The current price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the main contract increased by 0.02%; the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the futures price of the main contract increased by 0.22% [11] Corn - **Corn**: The price of the 2509 contract is 2,378 yuan, down 0.25%; the basis is 2 yuan, up 150.00%; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 8.11%; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.17% [13] - **Corn starch**: The price of the 2509 contract is 2,733 yuan, down 0.36%; the basis is - 13 yuan, up 43.48%; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 11.76%; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 4.14% [13] Hogs - **Futures market**: The price of the 2507 contract increased by 1.65%, and the 2509 contract decreased by 0.96%; the 7 - 9 spread decreased by 94.74%; the main - contract position increased by 1.78% [16] - **Spot market**: The prices in various regions generally increased, with the largest increase of 600 yuan in Guangdong [16] - **Related indicators**: The daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.27%; the self - breeding profit increased by 159.02%, and the purchased - piglet profit increased by 29.49%; the fertile sow inventory increased by 0.10% [16]

农产品日报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周一，玉米 9 月期价震荡收十字星，价格延续盘整表现。当日，玉米 7 月持仓下 | 震荡 | | | 降，资金向 9 月合约移仓较为有限，期价连续三日呈现震荡表现。现货市场方面， | | | | 周末玉米报价稳中偏强运行。目前进口玉米拍卖消息已出，从周末市场表现来看 | | | | 并未受到明显影响，东北部分深加工玉米收购价格继续上调，产区玉米报价仍维 | | | | 持在相对高位。周末华北地区玉米到货量维持低位，加上近期阴雨天气较多，部 | | | | 分深加工企业玉米价格继续上行，普遍上调 10-20 元/吨。基层余粮不断减少， | | | | 贸易商挺价意愿较强。周末销区市场玉米价格坚挺运行。港口贸易商报价坚挺， | | | | 下游提货速度一般，港口库存仍有压力。饲料企业对玉米高价接受度有限，小部 | | | | 分企业刚需采购玉米，多数使用小麦替代一部分玉米。技术上，玉米 9 月合约关 | | | | 注 2420 前高压力的价格表现，进口拍卖预期兑现，期 ...

Group 1: Oil and Fat Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Palm oil: With concerns about month - end inventory growth, the Malaysian crude palm oil futures may face downward pressure to seek support around 3,800 ringgit. In China, Dalian palm oil futures may seek support at the annual line of 8,200 yuan [2]. - Soybean oil: Weak crude oil reduces the attractiveness of soybean oil as a biodiesel raw material. Abundant rainfall in US soybean - growing areas and high - yield expectations put pressure on CBOT soybeans and soy oil. In China, downstream demand is weak, and soybean oil inventory is expected to increase [2]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: From June 27 to June 30, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil decreased by 50 yuan to 8,240 yuan, a decline of 0.60%; the futures price of Y2509 decreased by 18 yuan to 7,984 yuan, a decline of 0.22%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 100 yuan to 8,400 yuan, a decline of 1.18%; the futures price of P2509 decreased by 46 yuan to 8,330 yuan, a decline of 0.55%. The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil decreased by 70 yuan, a decline of 0.73%; the futures price of 01509 decreased by 51 yuan to 9,415 yuan, a decline of 0.54% [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Y2509 decreased by 32 yuan to 256 yuan, a decline of 11.11%; the basis of P2509 decreased by 54 yuan to 70 yuan, a decline of 43.55%; the basis of 01509 decreased by 19 yuan, a decline of 10.33%. The soybean - palm oil spot spread increased by 50 yuan to - 160 yuan, an increase of 23.81%; the 2509 spread increased by 28 yuan to - 346 yuan, an increase of 7.49% [2]. Group 2: Sugar Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The increase in the ethanol blending ratio in Brazilian gasoline supports a slight rebound in raw sugar prices, but the global supply surplus limits the rebound height, and raw sugar is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern. In China, the market sentiment has improved, and the bullish sentiment may last for some time. Considering the expected increase in imports, the domestic supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and a bearish view is maintained after the rebound [5]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: From the previous value, the futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 28 yuan to 5,628 yuan, an increase of 0.50%; the futures price of sugar 2509 increased by 15 yuan to 5,807 yuan, an increase of 0.26%. The price of ICE raw sugar decreased by 0.50 cents to 16.19 cents per pound, a decline of 3.00% [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production reached 1,116.21 tons, an increase of 119.89 tons or 12.03% year - on - year; the cumulative national sugar sales reached 811.38 tons, an increase of 152.10 tons or 23.07% year - on - year. The national industrial sugar inventory decreased by 32.21 tons to 304.83 tons, a decline of 9.56% [5]. Group 3: Cotton Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The contradiction of tight old - crop cotton inventory in the upstream supply cannot be resolved in the short term, but the long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. The downstream industry continues to weaken, with increasing finished - product inventory. The driving force for cotton price increases is insufficient, and the cotton price is expected to remain in a range - bound pattern [6]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: From the previous value, the futures price of cotton 2509 decreased by 20 yuan to 13,740 yuan, a decline of 0.15%; the futures price of cotton 2601 decreased by 5 yuan to 13,760 yuan, a decline of 0.04%. The price of ICE US cotton decreased by 1.28 cents to 68.04 cents per pound, a decline of 1.85% [6]. - **Industry Situation**: The industrial cotton inventory decreased by 1.10 tons to 93.01 tons, a decline of 1.2%; the cotton import volume decreased by 2.00 tons to 4.00 tons, a decline of 33.3%. The yarn inventory days increased by 1.52 days to 23.86 days, an increase of 6.8%; the grey - fabric inventory days increased by 2.57 days to 35.46 days, an increase of 7.8% [6]. Group 4: Egg Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The national egg supply is sufficient, the demand is average, and downstream purchasers are cautious. Egg prices are expected to remain stable first, decline slightly in the short term, and then stabilize [8]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: The futures price of the egg 09 contract increased by 16 yuan to 3,689 yuan per 500 kg, an increase of 0.44%; the futures price of the egg 07 contract increased by 18 yuan to 2,821 yuan per 500 kg, an increase of 0.64%. The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.14 yuan to 2.78 yuan per catty, a decline of 4.90% [7]. - **Related Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks remained at 4.00 yuan per chick; the price of culled chickens increased by 0.18 yuan to 4.62 yuan per catty, an increase of 4.05%. The egg - feed ratio decreased by 0.09 to 2.24, a decline of 3.86% [7]. Group 5: Meal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The US soybean planting area report had a neutral impact. The technical support for US soybeans has strengthened, and the Brazilian soybean market is boosted by the rising basis of August and September shipments. In China, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is rising, the basis is stable, and the supply is expected to be high. The soybean meal trend is not yet clear, and there may be opportunities to go long at low prices [11]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased by 20 yuan to 2,840 yuan, an increase of 0.71%; the futures price of M2509 increased by 15 yuan to 2,961 yuan, an increase of 0.51%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 40 yuan to 2,470 yuan, an increase of 1.65%; the futures price of RM2509 increased by 13 yuan to 2,572 yuan, an increase of 0.51% [11]. - **Spread and Ratio**: The soybean meal 09 - 01 spread increased by 3 yuan to - 38 yuan, an increase of 7.32%; the rapeseed meal 09 - 01 spread increased by 2 yuan to 271 yuan, an increase of 0.74%. The oil - meal ratio of the spot decreased by 0.038 to 2.90, a decline of 1.30%; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract decreased by 0.020 to 2.70, a decline of 0.73% [11]. Group 6: Corn and Corn Starch Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The corn supply is tight, and the spot price is rising steadily. In the Northeast, the remaining grain is scarce, and traders are reluctant to sell. In North China, the corn arrival volume is low, and deep - processing enterprises are raising prices to purchase. Downstream demand is weak, but the wheat - corn price difference is shrinking, which limits the increase in corn prices. In the long term, the tight supply and increasing consumption support the upward movement of corn prices. A large - scale increase in imports is expected. The corn auction starts on July 1, and the overall trend is bullish [13][15]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: The futures price of corn 2509 decreased by 6 yuan to 2,378 yuan, a decline of 0.25%; the futures price of corn starch 2509 decreased by 10 yuan to 2,733 yuan, a decline of 0.36% [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The number of vehicles remaining in the morning at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased by 65 to 216, an increase of 43.05%. The corn starch inventory increased by 948 to 23,822, an increase of 4.14% [13]. Group 7: Pig Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of pigs is still in a volatile structure. The enthusiasm of secondary fattening has declined, and the slaughter procurement difficulty has slightly increased. The current breeding profit is declining, and the market capacity expansion is cautious. The market expects a potential upward trend in July and August, but there may be a risk of price decline for the 09 contract near the delivery date if the inventory is postponed [16][17]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: The futures price of live pigs 2507 increased by 225 yuan to 13,850 yuan, an increase of 1.65%; the futures price of live pigs 2509 decreased by 135 yuan to 13,870 yuan, a decline of 0.96% [16]. - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 376 to 140,739, a decline of 0.27%. The self - breeding profit per head increased by 30.9 yuan to 50 yuan, an increase of 159.02%; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding increased by 55.1 yuan to - 132 yuan, an increase of 29.49% [16].

观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆旧作库存偏高，新作面积略减 | 2 | | 豆粕：报告落地、美豆微涨，连粕或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：内强外弱 | 7 | | 棉花：缺乏有效驱动期价冲高回落 | 8 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025年07月01日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.55% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.17% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,330 7,984 | -0.22% | 8,316 7,974 | -0.13% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,415 | -0.54% | 9,446 | 0.33% | | 期 货 | ...

期货盯盘神器专属文章 CBOT农产品晚间分析：大豆在周五的修正性反弹中得到了一定支撑，但仍然偏空；CBOT玉米仍然看 跌，USDA种植面积报告的任何利好消息都可能……点击了解详情。 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure to weaken in the short - term due to concerns about production recovery and a rapid slowdown in export growth. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures are expected to fall further to the 8150 - 8250 yuan range. - For soybeans, the easing of the Middle East situation reduces investors' risk appetite, but the decline in crude oil and refined oil inventories and the increase in refinery operating rates support CBOT soybeans. However, CBOT soybeans are under pressure, dragging down CBOT soybean oil. In the domestic market, demand is weak, and factory soybean oil inventories are accumulating. [1] Meal - Affected by the decline in crude oil, CBOT soybeans have fallen recently. But there are signs of stabilization at around 1020 cents. The increase in the premium of Brazilian beans for August and September shipments boosts the Brazilian bean market. - Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is stable. The future supply is expected to be high, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. The soybean meal market is in a short - term bottom - grinding adjustment, and support is expected to gradually strengthen. [2] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs is still in a volatile structure. The enthusiasm of second - fattening has declined, and the slaughter procurement is slightly more difficult. - Although the current breeding profit is declining, self - breeding still has profit, and market capacity expansion is cautious. The market expects a possible market in July and August, but there is a risk of a decline in the 09 contract if the live inventory continues to shift backward. [3] Corn - The current supply is affected by traders' behavior. As the remaining grain decreases, traders are reluctant to sell, and the futures decline has little impact on the spot price, which is stable with a slight increase. - Downstream deep - processing enterprises have regional maintenance, and the stocking demand is average. The narrowing price difference between wheat and corn limits the increase in corn prices. In the long - term, the supply is tight, and consumption is increasing, supporting the upward movement of corn prices. [6] Sugar - Brazil's increase in the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline supports the slight rebound of raw sugar prices, but the global supply surplus limits the rebound height, and raw sugar is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern. - The domestic market sentiment has improved, and prices are rebounding. With imports not yet increasing and the overall macro - environment being optimistic, the bullish sentiment is expected to continue. However, considering the future increase in imports, the domestic supply - demand will gradually ease, and a bearish view is maintained after the rebound. [8] Cotton - The short - term contradiction of tight old - crop inventory in the upstream supply cannot be resolved, but the long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. The downstream industry is weakening, with开机 rates decreasing and finished product inventories accumulating. - The driving force for the continuous increase in cotton prices is insufficient, but the downward driving force is also weak. In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate slightly stronger, and there is a risk of short - term decline at high levels. [10] Eggs - The national egg supply is still sufficient, demand is generally average, and downstream procurement is cautious. It is expected that the national egg price will be stable first, decline slightly in the short - term, and then remain stable. [13] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On June 27, the price in Jiangsu was 8290 yuan, up 0.61% from the previous day. The basis for Y2509 was 288 yuan, up 20.00%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 18882. - **Palm Oil**: The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on June 27 was 8500 yuan, up 0.12%. The basis for P2509 was 124 yuan, down 4.62%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 470 to 470. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Jiangsu Grade 4 rapeseed oil on June 27 was 9650 yuan, up 0.21%. The basis for 01509 was 148 yuan, up 24.32%. [1] Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The price in Jiangsu was 2860 yuan, down 1.40%. The price of M2509 was 2936 yuan, up 0.34%. The basis was - 76 yuan, down 65.79%. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price in Jiangsu was 2430 yuan, unchanged. The price of RM2509 was 2550 yuan, up 0.35%. The basis was - 120 yuan, down 7.50%. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans was 3960 yuan, unchanged. The price of the main soybean - one contract was 4140 yuan, down 0.24%. The basis was - 180 yuan, up 5.26%. [2] Live Pigs - **Futures**: The price of the main contract was 795, up 20.45%. The price of Live Pig 2507 was 13625 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The price of Live Pig 2509 was 14005 yuan/ton, down 0.25%. - **Spot**: The prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, Guangdong, Hunan, and Hebei all showed varying degrees of increase. The daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.75% to 142127 heads. The self - breeding profit increased by 159.02% to 50 yuan/head, while the profit from purchasing piglets was - 132 yuan/head, up 29.49%. [3] Corn - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2509 was 2384 yuan, up 0.25%. The basis was - 4 yuan, down 300.00%. The 9 - 1 spread was 111 yuan/ton, up 3.74%. - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2509 was 2743 yuan, up 0.55%. The basis was - 23 yuan, down 187.50%. The 9 - 1 spread was 68 yuan, up 15.25%. [6] Sugar - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 was 5600 yuan/ton, down 0.02%. The price of Sugar 2509 was 5792 yuan, up 0.03%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 3.59% to 315131 lots. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 6090 yuan, up 0.16%. The basis in Nanning was 298 yuan, up 2.76%. The national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%, and the cumulative sales volume was 811.38 million tons, up 23.07%. [8] Cotton - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2509 was 13760 yuan/ton, up 0.29%. The price of Cotton 2601 was 13765 yuan, up 0.73%. The 9 - 1 spread was - 5 yuan, down 109.09%. - **Spot**: The price of Xinjiang 3128B cotton was 15053 yuan, up 0.64%. The CC Index 3128B was 15109 yuan, up 0.59%. The industrial inventory was 93.01 million tons, down 1.2%. [10] Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the Egg 09 contract was 3673 yuan/500KG, up 0.36%. The price of the Egg 07 contract was 2803 yuan, down 0.74%. - **Spot**: The egg production area price was 2.78 yuan/jin, unchanged. The basis was - 765 yuan/500KG, up 0.91%. The 9 - 7 spread was 870 yuan, up 4.07%. The breeding profit was - 33.26 yuan/feather, down 19.30%. [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The bullish expectation of corn has basically been fulfilled, and it is waiting for policy guidance. The current futures market has basically reached the expected price range, and the future market will be affected by factors such as policies, supply and demand, and consumption [6][7][20]. - Pig: The supply of pigs is expected to increase, and the market is trading the logic of basis repair. The supply of pigs will increase in the second half of the year, and the price will be affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies [9][10][55]. - Eggs: There is still an expectation of a seasonal increase in egg prices, but the overall trend may be up first and then down. The supply pressure of eggs is obvious, and the price will be affected by factors such as supply, demand, and consumption seasons [15][16][86]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn 3.1.1 Market Review in the First Half of the Year - Spot market: The supply - demand pattern of the corn spot market tightened in the first half of the year, and the price fluctuated upward with the center of gravity shifting up. As of June 27, the FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port was 2380 yuan/ton, a 16% increase from the beginning of the year [6]. - Futures market: The bullish sentiment in the corn futures market was gradually fulfilled in the first half of the year, and the futures price oscillated upward. As of June 27, the closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2384 yuan/ton, a 4.6% increase from the beginning of the year [6]. 3.1.2 Strategy Review The trading strategy proposed in the 2025 breeding industry annual report has been verified by the market, and the current futures price has basically fulfilled the bullish expectation [7]. 3.1.3 Variety Views - Macro logic: Internationally, the macro - driving force is gradually weakening; domestically, it is mainly reflected in industrial policies, especially import policy orientation [20]. - Industry logic: It has entered the passive inventory - building cycle, and attention should be paid to policies such as directional rice/imported corn auctions and grain import policies [20]. - Supply - demand logic: Supply: Globally, the corn supply situation is tightening, and there is still supply pressure in the US. Domestically, there is still a gap between production and demand in the long - term, and the pricing logic of substitutes remains unchanged. Consumption: Feed consumption is rigid, and industrial consumption is relatively stable [20]. - Variety view: In the short - term, the spot market is stable and slightly strong; in the medium - term, it may maintain a stable and slightly strong pattern, but the upside space may be limited; in the long - term, it maintains the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost [20]. - Trading strategy: Long - term wide - range operation; medium - term low - buying thinking; short - term test the upper pressure of the range [20]. 3.2 Pig 3.2.1 Market Review in the First Half of the Year - Spot market: The supply of the pig spot market increased in the first half of the year, and the price fluctuated downward. As of June 27, the ex - factory price of pigs in Henan was 14.9 yuan/kg, a 9% decrease from the beginning of the year [9]. - Futures market: The futures market fulfilled the downward expectation in advance and then traded the logic of basis repair. As of June 27, the closing price of the main 2509 contract was 14005 yuan/ton, a 1.8% decrease from the beginning of the year [9]. 3.2.2 Strategy Review The main trading logic proposed in the 2025 breeding industry annual report has been verified by the market, and the strategy review effect is good [10]. 3.2.3 Market Views - Macro logic: Domestically, pay attention to the interaction between CPI and pig prices and industrial policy orientation [53]. - Industry logic: After African swine fever, the normalization of diseases has led to significant fluctuations in pig prices. The process of large - scale concentration in the breeding end is not over [54]. - Supply - demand logic: Supply: In 2025, the supply of pigs will enter an upward cycle, and the supply in the second half of the year will still increase. Demand: The consumption of pork will gradually increase in the second half of the year, and the relative increment of supply and demand in the fourth - quarter seasonal consumption peak is the key driving force for the long - short game [55]. - Market view: In the short - term, there are both supports and pressures for pig prices; in the medium - term, the price in the third quarter depends on the release of weight pressure; in the long - term, the supply of pigs will continue to increase, and the profit of the breeding end in the fourth quarter depends on the contribution of weight to supply [56][57]. - Operation suggestion: Long - term short - selling thinking; medium - term wide - range operation around the expected support and pressure of spot prices; short - term trading the logic of basis repair driven by weight reduction [58]. 3.3 Eggs 3.3.1 Market Review in the First Half of the Year - Spot market: The supply pressure of the egg spot market was obvious in the first half of the year, and the price dropped significantly. As of June 27, the spot price of eggs in Handan, Hebei was 2.56 yuan/jin, a 38% decrease from the beginning of the year [15]. - Futures market: The bearish expectation of the egg futures market was gradually fulfilled, and the futures price broke through and fell. As of June 27, the closing price of the main 2508 contract was 3543 yuan/500KG, an 8% decrease from the beginning of the year [15]. 3.3.2 Strategy Review The trading strategy proposed in the 2025 breeding industry annual report has been verified by the market, and the current futures price has basically fulfilled the bearish expectation [16]. 3.3.3 Variety Views - Macro logic: Domestically, pay attention to raw material prices and CPI changes, and pay attention to the impact of meat and vegetable prices in the second half of the year [84]. - Industry logic: The egg - chicken breeding industry has been profitable for four consecutive years, and the large - scale rate continues to increase [85]. - Supply - demand logic: Egg prices are mainly driven by the supply side, and consumption is mainly seasonally driven. The current egg - chicken inventory is at a high level, and the supply pressure will continue to be released. The key to the price in the third quarter is the rhythm and amplitude of capacity elimination [86]. - Variety view: In the short - term, egg prices are weakly stable; in the medium - term, the supply pressure is high before mid - July, and if there is large - scale elimination in June - July, there may be a phased rebound in August - September [87]. - Trading strategy: The short - selling strategy in the first half of the year has been verified. For 08/09 contracts, there are differences in the expected high - point of spot prices in the second half of the year. It is recommended to enter the market after the market gives a safe space [88].

农产品日报 | 2025-06-27 现货价格整体下调，豆粕维持弱势 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2936元/吨，较前日变动-57元/吨，幅度-1.90%；菜粕2509合约2550元/吨，较前 日变动-38元/吨，幅度-1.47%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2880元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，现货基差M09-56， 较前日变动+27；江苏地区豆粕现货2790元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，现货基差M09-146，较前日变动+27；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2800元/吨，较前日变动跌-50元/吨，现货基差M09-136，较前日变动+7。福建地区菜粕现货价格2540 元/吨，较前日变动-50元/吨，现货基差RM09-10，较前日变动-12。 期货方面，昨日收盘玉米2508合约2378元/吨，较前日变动+1元/吨，幅度+0.04%；玉米淀粉2508合约2728元/吨， 较前日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.15%。现货方面，辽宁地区玉米现货价格2150元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差为 C08+2，较前日变动-1；吉林地区玉米淀粉现货价格2750元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [3][8] Core Views - The apple market shows stable but light trading. The reduction expectation has weakened after the bagging stage. Attention should be paid to the game between low inventory and weak demand, as well as the actual bagging data and weather changes [2][3] - The红枣 market has a general trading atmosphere in the sales areas. The high - temperature and dusty weather in the production areas may affect fruit - setting. The new - season growth has potential risks, and the market is sensitive to weather changes [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract was 7,726 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (+0.47%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commodity late Fuji was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose. The bagging quantity is similar to last year. The downstream demand is weak, and the supply of seasonal fruits suppresses apple sales. The inventory is low, but there is a risk of price decline due to quality issues [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance, focusing on the game between low inventory and weak demand and the post - bagging production data [3] Red Dates (红枣) Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the红枣 2509 contract was 9,630 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton (-0.62%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [4] Market Analysis - The red date futures price fell. The trading atmosphere in the sales areas is general. The high - temperature and dusty weather in the production areas may affect fruit - setting. The futures price has rebounded recently, and the multi - empty game is expected to intensify [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral stance, closely monitoring the weather conditions during the critical growth period of new red dates [8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-6-27 豆粕进口预期重挫盘面，关注下方支撑 油脂：关注反弹持续性，美豆产区天气良好 蛋⽩粕：豆粕进口预期重挫盘面，关注下方支撑力度 ⽟⽶/淀粉：盘面震荡运行，现货依旧坚挺 ⽣猪：上游挺价情绪强烈，需求仍在淡季 橡㬵：宏观偏暖带动胶价上行 合成橡㬵：盘面跟涨幅度有限 纸浆：弱势不改，趋势依旧 棉花：棉价延续增仓反弹 ⽩糖：内外分化，内盘震荡反弹 原⽊：基本面无明显矛盾，短期震荡运行 【异动品种】 蛋⽩粕观点：⾖粕进⼝预期重挫盘⾯，关注下⽅⽀撑⼒度 逻辑：国际⽅⾯，6月30日USDA将公布面积终值报告，市场预计美豆面积 或上调，即面积降幅或不及预期。美豆出口检验量不及预期，但美豆优良 率低于预期。美豆产区未来十五天降水偏高温度偏低。6月旱情暂无大 碍，但季度展望仍有加重趋势。巴西全国谷物出口商协会（Anec）预估， 巴西6月大豆出口量料达到1,499万吨，高于前一周预估的1436万吨。罗萨 里奥谷物交易所提高阿根廷大豆产量预估300万吨。原油和EPA利多情绪释 放。CFTC净多持仓环比走高。预计面积终值报告前，美豆延续区间震荡 ...