交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-18甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，上周华东、华南港口甲醇价格维持坚挺但涨幅有限，受船龄限制政策持续影响，港口市场尚存 支撑，同时中美贸易谈判进展及全球贸易预期改善，叠加地缘政治因素推高油价，共同推动期现货价格上行，且基差较 上周走强，不过价格上涨后，现货商谈趋于谨慎。内地方面，周初西北CTO工厂甲醇外采，以及当前甲醇价格已处于底 部空间部分投机需求增加，产区主要工厂竞拍溢价成交，上游工厂去库存节奏加快。另外港口走强也在一定程度上提振 业者心态，贸易商谨慎做空，场内低价货源难寻，销区下游接货也适度走高。但同时因传统下游需求多步入高温淡季， 以及当前国内甲醇开工仍在高位，供需基本面支撑利好仍显不足，买方对 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】IEA报告显示，石油需求将于2029年达到 1.056亿桶/日的峰值，2030年小幅回落。与此同时，全球产能 预计到2030年将增加超500万桶/日，达1.147亿桶/日。预计 2025年全球石油供应将增加180万桶/日，将2025年平均石油需 求增长预期下调至72万桶/日，将2026年平均石油需求增长预期 下调至74万桶/日；API数据：当周API原油库存大幅下降1013.3 万桶；据央视报道，当地时间6月17日，乌克兰基辅军政管理局 负责人特卡琴科表示，当日凌晨俄罗斯对基辅及周边地区发动 了大规模袭击，此次袭击击中了居民楼，造成严重损失；据新 华社报道，欧盟委员会6月17日提出一项立法提案，欧盟将在 2027年年底前逐步停止进口俄罗斯的天然气和石油；据伊朗国 家通讯社报道，革命卫队周二宣布向以色列发射"更强大"的 新一轮导弹，一名高级军官称无人机群即将来袭。评：IEA月报 预测年度供应宽松。市场注意力集中在了中东地缘层面，目前 紧张局势仍未得到缓和。短期短多思路。 【短评-PTA】PXCFR当前报866美元/吨，PX-N242美元/吨； 华东PTA报4980元/吨 ...

| | | 甲醇日评20250618: 地缘不确定性高，建议暂时观望 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 | 单位 | 2025/6/17 | 2025/6/16 | | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2455.00 | 2464.00 | -9.00 | -0.37% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2387.00 | 2395.00 | -8.00 | -0.33% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2455.00 | 2464.00 | -9.00 | -0.37% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2610.00 | 2587.50 | 22.50 | 0.87% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2275.00 | 2302.50 | -27.50 | -1.19% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2500.00 | 2490.00 | 10 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Methanol - The short - term inventory accumulation trend continues. Import and domestic logistics jointly drive a significant increase in port inventory. Although downstream operations are at a high level, profit contraction intensifies the pressure of hidden inventory. If Iranian supply is interrupted due to geopolitical conflicts, it may relieve the supply - demand contradiction at ports. Short - term strategy is to wait and see, while long - term Iranian shutdown may boost sentiment [2]. Crude Oil - Overnight crude oil prices rose, mainly driven by geopolitical uncertainties. The potential supply interruption risk has pushed up the risk premium, supporting high oil prices. The US industry data shows a sharp drop in crude oil inventory last week. Geopolitical tensions extend the market uncertainty period, supporting oil prices above the pre - conflict level. Short - term, a bullish approach is recommended [20]. Urea - The domestic urea market remains in a loose supply pattern. The key marginal change is the relaxation of export policies, which opens an international channel for excess production capacity. Short - term trading logic should focus on multiple factors such as the operation status of Iranian urea export ports and international buyer inquiries [28]. Styrene - The pure benzene market price continues to decline from a high level. On the styrene side, supply increases as some petrochemical plants restart. Downstream 3S profits improve and replenishment is fair, leading to a slight decline in port inventory. In the short - term, it fluctuates sharply, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the marginal pressure on supply - demand after the restart of styrene plants [34]. Caustic Soda - Recently, the operation of caustic soda has declined, but cost reduction leads to partial resumption of production, which has limited impact. Demand from the alumina end is weakening, and non - aluminum demand is sluggish. There is short - term supply - demand pressure in inventory, and further capacity pressure risk may occur after the return of maintenance devices [38]. PVC - In the short - term, PVC shows a volatile operation. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent due to the decline in the domestic real estate sector. The supply side is expected to face greater pressure in the future. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling approach [38]. Polyester Industry Chain - Oil prices are under pressure to rise further due to weak supply - demand expectations. PX is expected to be strong in the short - term. PTA is also expected to be supported in the short - term. Ethylene glycol is expected to be strong in the short - term. Short - fiber has weak supply - demand but strong price support. Bottle - chip supply - demand is expected to improve, and processing fees may rebound [42]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices decreased by 0.37%. The Taicang basis increased by 25.51%. Regional spreads such as Taicang - Inner Mongolia and Taicang - Luoyang also changed [2]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 2.33%, port inventory by 12.22%, and social inventory by 8.37% [2]. - **Operation Rate**: Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operation rates increased, and some downstream operation rates such as acetic acid and MTBE also increased [2]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI decreased, while EFS increased [20]. - **Market Logic**: Geopolitical uncertainties, especially the conflict between Iran and Israel, drive up oil prices. US industry data shows a sharp drop in crude oil inventory [20]. Urea - **Futures and Spot**: Futures contract prices and spreads changed. Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase [23][24][27]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days data changed. The export policy was relaxed [27][28]. Styrene - **Upstream**: The prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and other upstream products changed. The pure benzene market price continued to decline [31][34]. - **Spot and Futures**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased. The supply side increased, and downstream inventory decreased slightly [32][34]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Caustic Soda**: Prices, overseas quotes, and export profits changed. Operation rates decreased, and inventory showed different trends in different regions [38]. - **PVC**: Spot and futures prices, overseas quotes, and export profits changed. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak [38]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Prices of upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX, and downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed [42]. - **Operation Rates and Cash Flows**: Operation rates of various polyester products and cash flows also changed. Different products in the industry chain have different supply - demand and price trends [42].

一样的行情，不一样的指导，不一样的人生。新手的特点就是不懂技术，盲目进场。他们每次交易只考虑一个问题：认为只要预判了市场涨跌就可以去做这 笔交易。这种重方向、轻位置的做法使得交易者一败涂地。其实，顺势而为的"势"跟"方向"是有很大差别的，因为市场的运动方向呈现震荡的形态运行，而 市场的趋势往往是全局性的。在我这里，我能做的是帮你合理的把控仓位，利用支撑和阻力位下单，让每一单有理可依，有迹可循。买卖点位不应该是随意 进场，请对自己的资金负责。如果你对行情真的无法把握，可以前来找到我，多一个分析师对你来说没有任何损失，永远记住一句话，专业的人做专业的 事，一切实战只为盈利，合作只为双赢。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 原油消息面解析：周二早盘，布伦特原油期货上涨0.73美元，涨幅1%，报每桶73.66美元；美国WTI原油上涨0.55美元，涨幅0.78%，至每桶70.38美元。两者 在稍早时段均一度上涨超过2%，主要由于地缘局势骤然恶化。此前周一，两大基准油价曾因有关伊朗可能寻求缓和局势的媒体报道而下跌超过1%。但事实 证明，市场的短期乐观情绪未能持久。当前油价走势主要受地缘政治而非基本面推动。市场对中东局势的敏感性提升 ...

Market Overview - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated, with Trump demanding Iran's unconditional surrender and threatening further military action, leading to a significant decline in U.S. stock markets, with major indices falling nearly 1% [3] - Technology stocks were also affected, with Tesla dropping nearly 4%, while Intel saw a slight increase, indicating some resilience in the semiconductor sector [3] - Airline stocks suffered greatly, with JetBlue down nearly 8% and major carriers like United and Delta dropping over 6%, primarily due to rising oil prices impacting operational costs [3] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.77%, with companies like Hesai and Li Auto experiencing declines of over 6% and 4% respectively, attributed to financial scrutiny and competitive pressures in the EV market [4] - Internet companies such as Tencent Music and Bilibili also faced declines due to SEC delisting threats and regulatory tensions between the U.S. and China [4] Bond Market - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 5.9 basis points to 4.3869%, reflecting mixed investor sentiment amid geopolitical tensions and concerns over rising oil prices potentially increasing inflation [4] - The two-year Treasury yield also fell but exhibited significant volatility, indicating uncertainty regarding short-term economic conditions [4] Commodities - Gold prices rose by 4% last week but have begun to retreat, with forecasts suggesting potential declines below $3,000 in the coming quarters, while silver prices increased by 2.2% due to its industrial demand [5] - Crude oil prices surged over 4% as Middle Eastern conflicts disrupted supply chains, with expectations of continued high prices due to potential U.S. intervention [5] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in its upcoming policy decision, with market participants closely watching for signals from Powell regarding inflation control and potential rate cuts [5] - The overall market sentiment is heavily influenced by geopolitical developments and Federal Reserve policies, with a focus on companies with stable cash flows and minimal geopolitical exposure for long-term investments [5]

6月17日国际原油价格盘中上涨。截至当日14时，WTI 7月原油期货报每桶72.18美元，上涨0.41美元。 伦敦布伦特8月原油期货报每桶73.70美元，上涨0.47美元。 受伊朗与以色列爆发冲突影响，国际油价在6月13日应声上涨，至今一直持续保持高位运行态势。 隆众资讯原油分析师李彦对《中国经营报》记者表示："当前对油价影响比较大的主要是以色列和伊朗 之间的地缘冲突。"其认为，从2025年全年油价走势来看，整体趋势是看空的。 国际油价震荡 当地时间6月13日，伊朗与以色列爆发冲突。当天，国际油价应声上涨。其中，纽约商品交易所7月交货 的轻质原油期货价格收于每桶72.98美元，上涨4.94美元，涨幅7.26%；8月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货 价格收于每桶74.23美元，上涨4.87美元，涨幅7.02%。 记者了解到，伊朗是OPEC（石油输出国组织）第三大产油国，EIA（美国能源信息署）数据显示，5月 份伊朗的原油产量为3.35百万桶/日。同时，伊朗掌控着霍尔木兹海峡，该海峡是中东最重要的石油通 道，承担着全球近40%的石油出口供应。 李彦对记者表示："当前对油价影响比较大的主要是以色列和伊朗之间的地缘冲突。当前 ...

根据央视新闻和其他媒体的报道，6月14日晚，以色列军队的无人机对伊朗最大的天然气田——南帕尔斯天然气田进行了袭击，导致该天然气田的部分区域 发生了大规模火灾。以军对伊朗能源基础设施的打击，必将引起伊朗的强烈反击，这种相互的军事报复势必会使国际能源市场面临剧烈的动荡。因此，俄罗 斯的网友对此事表现出了异常的关注，尤其希望国际油价能迅速上涨。他们在讨论中，着重关注伊朗何时会对霍尔木兹海峡实施封锁，并列出了会促使伊朗 采取这一举动的三个条件： 其次，伊朗国内民众情绪的剧烈爆发。如果以色列对伊朗的轰炸继续无差别扩大，给伊朗的平民带来严重的伤亡、导致大量难民涌现，从而激起周边国家的 围堵局面。在这样一片愤怒的复仇情绪之下，对霍尔木兹海峡实施封锁的决定可能成為德黑兰转移矛盾、形成统一意见的唯一选择。 URGHU FOTHER FULLER FULLE IIII SGCU TFF pp 最后，在伊朗遭受窒息性制裁的情况下，其局势面临无路可退。当美国及其盟友加大对伊朗的制裁力度，严厉限制其石油出口，使得其经济几近崩溃时，德 黑兰可能会判断外交斡旋和常规的对抗手段已然失效。在这种情况下，封锁海峡将成为一种极端策略，旨在突破困境 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On June 17, the closing price of the coke active contract was 1,365.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.00%. The position was 51,143 lots, a decrease of 728 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quoted price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts was about 1,401 yuan/ton. Coke is in a pattern of double - decline in supply and demand, and the impact of the off - season is gradually emerging. Recently, the marginal decline in coking coal production, combined with geopolitical events, has strengthened the cost support for coke futures, driving the price to stop falling and stabilize [5][31]. - From January to May, coking coal futures continued to decline. The recent change in market sentiment is due to supply - side disturbances and macro - positive expectations from international events. For coking coal hitting an 8 - year low, short - and medium - term adjustments are reasonable. However, it will take time to reverse the current pattern of loose supply. Without policy intervention, supply pressure may return after July. The impact of the Sino - US London economic and trade consultation on the terminal demand for ferrous metals is limited, and the key factor may be whether the Israel - Iran conflict will trigger a new round of international energy price increases. Since June 3, the price of the coking coal 2509 contract has stopped falling and gradually increased, but the sustainability of production cuts and the impact of geopolitics on coal prices need further evaluation [6][32]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Industry News - On June 16, US President Trump said that the US would postpone sanctions on Russia to reach an agreement. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said that at the US request, a new round of bilateral consultations between Russia and the US to normalize diplomatic relations had been cancelled [8]. - On June 17, in the online auction of coking coal in Lvliang Lishi market, 0.3 million tons of low - sulfur main coking coal failed to be sold, and the starting price was 1,070 yuan/ton. For high - sulfur lean coal, 1 million tons were sold at a price of 650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from June 13 [9]. Spot Market - Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke flat - warehouse price was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, with a monthly decline of 5.22%, an annual decline of 24.85%, and a year - on - year decline of 36.18%. Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke ex - warehouse price was 1,180 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, with a monthly decline of 3.28%, an annual decline of 27.16%, and a year - on - year decline of 39.80% [10]. - The price of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 865 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decline of 2.81%, a monthly decline of 5.98%, an annual decline of 26.69%, and a year - on - year decline of 45.94%. The price of Australian coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,210 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.83%, a monthly decline of 4.72%, an annual decline of 18.79%, and a year - on - year decline of 43.46%. The price of Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, with a monthly decline of 3.10%, an annual decline of 18.30%, and a year - on - year decline of 39.02% [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the coke active contract was 1,365.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.00%, a maximum price of 1,378.0 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 1,357.0 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 20,990 lots, a volume difference of - 9,838 lots, a position of 51,143 lots, and a position difference of - 728 lots [13]. - The closing price of the coking coal active contract was 789.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.70%, a maximum price of 808.0 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 785.0 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 1,019,537 lots, a volume difference of - 9,258 lots, a position of 562,767 lots, and a position difference of - 16,234 lots [13]. Related Charts - Charts show the inventory of coke and coking coal in different entities (such as 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mills' coking plants, ports, etc.) on a weekly basis from 2019 - 2025, as well as other related data such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][26][28] Market Outlook - The coke market has limited fundamental positives, but the cost - side support from coking coal has increased, driving the price to stabilize and fluctuate at a low level. Continued attention should be paid to the raw material side [5][31]. - The coking coal market has seen a short - and medium - term price rebound, but the sustainability of production cuts and the impact of geopolitics on coal prices need further evaluation. A phased rebound approach is recommended, but beware of the falsification of the upward logic [6][32]

【豆一】 国产大豆盘面震荡偏强。今日竞价采购专场全部流拍。本周黑龙江储备大豆举行竞价销售，关注实际成交情 况。国内短期东北产区天气总体对作物有利。美国EPA生物柴油政策利多，容易使得美国大豆原料更多用于国内 压榨,部分对冲出口减量的风险,也容易给CBOT大豆托底,价格坑跌。中期海外大豆方面会受天气驱动,天气 会成为影响价格的主要因素。国产大豆中期也逐步进入生长期，预计天气是驱动价格波动的主要因素。 【大豆&豆粕】 伊以战争继续，受原油以及美国生物柴油政策影响,美豆持续上涨。受此影响,大连豆粕延续强势。截至6月15 日当周,美国大豆优良率为66%,低于市场预期的68%,前一周为68%,大豆种植率为93%,大豆出苗率为84%，优 良率咯低。未来两周的美国天气,大部分美大豆产区降雨高于同期平均值,温度也高于同期平均值,持续有利 于大豆的种植生长。国内现货价格普涨，预计本周压榨开工率继续提升,豆粕库存继续增加。后续中美贸易上 的不确定性因素依旧较多,关注油脂端异动,6-8月关注未来天气变化所带来的上涨驱动。 【豆油&棕榈油】 国内油粕比冲高回落,油脂快速冲高之后接近阶段性高点,盘面在进行调整。美国EPA生物柴油政策利 ...