欧盟在最后一刻敲定了一项对乌援助折中方案，但这一结果也引发外界对欧盟决策力的质疑。 2025 年 5 月，在库皮扬 斯克附近，一名乌克兰士兵操作迫击炮，隐蔽在无人机的侦察视野之外。欧盟计划向乌克兰提供总计 900 亿欧元的贷款援助。 本文作者 | 詹娜・斯米亚莱克 周五凌晨将近 3 点，一则消息开始在布鲁塞尔市中心宏伟的欧盟总部内悄然传开。经过超过 16 个小时 的谈判，欧盟 27 国领导人终于达成一项协议，计划在 2027 年前为处境危急的乌克兰提供资金支持。 但这并非官员们数周来一直热议的方案。最初的方案原本打算动用欧盟冻结的俄罗斯资产，为对乌贷款 提供担保。各国领导人此前也多次表态，称这是最佳选择 —— 既是一项果断的举措，也能彰显欧盟的 实力。 最终出台的却是一项棘手的折中方案。 在密集的谈判和频繁的私下磋商中，这项 "冻结资产担保" 方案在最后时刻宣告流产。据欧盟外交官及 官员透露，方案搁浅的原因一方面是比利时长期以来的反对，另一方面则是卢森堡、意大利和法国的疑 虑。 比利时境内存放着欧盟冻结的大部分俄罗斯资产，卢森堡也持有一小部分。两国均担心，一旦俄罗斯采 取报复措施并胜诉，本国可能会面临巨额赔偿 ...

| 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货黄金 | 4326.22 | 美元/盎司 | | 黄金t+d | 975.90 | 元/克 | | 纸黄金 | 979.30 | 元/克 | | 沪金主力 | 979.90 | 元/克 | 【基本面解析】 根据美国劳工统计局(BLS)周四数据，美国11月CPI通胀降至2.7%，低于市场预期的3.1%。 美国总统唐纳德.特朗普周三表示，下任美联储主席将是一位相信大幅降低利率的人。他进一步表示， 将很快宣布现任美联储主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔的继任者。 根据CME FedWatch工具，在美联储最近三次会议上每次降息25个基点后，金融市场目前仅定价26.6% 的概率，认为美联储将在1月下次会议上降息。 在本周末美国与俄罗斯官员会晤之前，美国总统特朗普表示，他相信结束俄乌冲突的谈判"正在接近某 种结果"。一位白宫官员说，特朗普特使威特科夫和库什纳计划于本周末在迈阿密会见一个俄罗斯代表 团，他们将继续努力促使俄乌双方达成协议，以结束冲突。分析师指出，如果周末谈判取得进展，下周 金价将面临大幅低开的可能性。 摘要北京时间周五(12月19日)欧洲 ...

原油年报 2025 年 12 月 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 研究员： 研究员：黄思源 从业资格证：F03124114 投资分析证：Z0023501 原油年报 2025-12 回顾 2025 年，年初，在关税政策和 OPEC+增产计划的共同作用下，油价走 出一个流畅的下行趋势，年中受到中东局势升级带来的地缘风险，油价出现了 一波急涨，但这场由风险溢价驱动的上涨缺乏基本面支撑。随着局势迅速缓和、 停火协议生效，风险溢价被快速挤出，油价随之大幅回落。进入第三季度，受 到需求旺季的托底，油价并未继续深跌，而是进入横盘整理阶段，然而随着旺 季的结束，市场供应压力持续显现，使得油价中枢持续下行。 展望后市，供需方面，2026 年全球石油供给将维持增长，但增幅或低于 2025 年。虽然 OPEC+在一季度暂停增产，但后续仍有望继续释放产能，巴西、 加拿大等非减产联盟国家产量预计进一步提升，而美国页岩油受投资不足和油 价低迷制约，难有明显增量，此外，地缘局势演变，尤其是俄乌冲突与伊核问 题的走向，将继续扰动原油供给侧。而需求侧受经济增长乏力制约，整体前景 难言乐观，预计 2026 年全球石油需求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend. Different sectors, such as financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals, have their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in financial derivatives, stock index futures are expected to test 3900 again, while treasury bond futures have opportunities despite fluctuations; in agricultural products, the supply - demand situation of various varieties varies, affecting their price trends [5][20][26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to test 3900 again. On Thursday, the market showed a sideways shock. The main stock index futures contracts mostly declined, and the trading volume and positions decreased. The market rebound was affected by factors such as the overnight decline of the US stock market, and it is expected to maintain a sideways consolidation trend [18][20] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There were fluctuations, but opportunities remained. On Thursday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, and the market funds were balanced and slightly loose. The central bank's open - market operations and market rumors affected the bond market sentiment. In the short term, the central bank's loose tone remained unchanged, but the long - end repair rhythm might be repeated [22][23][24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The production outlook was good, and US soybeans continued to be under pressure. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. The US soybean export sales decreased, and the Brazilian soybean production was expected to increase. The domestic soybean meal crushing profit was still in deficit, and the overall price was expected to be supported but with limited sustainability [26][27][28] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices dropped sharply. The ICE and London sugar futures prices declined. The Brazilian sugar production increase was basically realized, and the market focus shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. The domestic sugar market had increasing supply pressure, but the price had certain support near the cost line [29][30][33] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Palm oil had a technical rebound, and the overall oils were at the bottom - level shock. The overseas palm oil and soybean oil prices had small fluctuations. The Indonesian palm oil inventory decreased, and the domestic soybean oil inventory was gradually decreasing, while the rapeseed oil inventory was expected to continue to decline [35][36] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price declined, and the futures price was at the bottom - level shock. The CBOT corn futures rebounded. The domestic corn processing enterprise inventory increased, and the starch inventory also increased. The Northeast corn price was strong, while the North China corn price was weak [37][38][39] - **Hogs**: The slaughter recovered, and the spot price fluctuated slightly. The hog price was stable in most regions. The short - term slaughter pressure decreased, but the overall supply pressure still existed [39][40][41] - **Peanuts**: The spot price declined, and the futures price had a narrow - range shock. The peanut price was stable in some regions and declined in others. The oil factory's purchase price was adjusted, and the 03 peanut futures price still had a downward space [42][43][44] - **Eggs**: The demand was average, and the egg price was stable with a slight decline. The main - producing and main - selling area prices were relatively stable. The number of laying hens decreased slightly, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved [45][46][47] - **Apples**: The demand was average, and the apple price was mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory decreased, and the import and export volume changed. The apple price was high before, which led to weak demand, and the market was concerned about the January delivery and pre - Spring Festival stocking [49][50][51] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales were good, and the cotton price was shock - upward. The ICE cotton futures price increased. The domestic cotton import and export volume changed, and the new cotton sales progress was fast. The market was affected by factors such as the expected reduction of cotton planting area and the expansion of textile factory capacity [52][53][54] Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw material prices stopped falling and stabilized, and the steel price rebounded from the bottom. The steel product supply decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the consumption decreased slightly. The steel price was affected by factors such as the raw material supply, demand, and export policy, and it was expected to show a shock - upward trend [57][58][59] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices rebounded from the bottom, and the trading logic change needed attention. The Mongolian coking coal market was strong, and the prices of some domestic coking coal increased. The market "anti - involution" sentiment led to the price rebound, and the future supply - demand situation might improve slightly [59][60][61] - **Iron Ore**: The market expectations were repeated, and the ore price was in shock. The domestic crude steel and rebar production decreased, and the iron ore production increased slightly. The global iron ore supply was loose, and the domestic demand was weak. The ore price was expected to have limited upward space [62][63][64] - **Ferroalloys**: Supported by cost and the "anti - involution" expectation, the prices rebounded in the short term. The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon prices were stable with a slight increase. The supply was expected to decline slightly, and the demand was under pressure. The cost support and "anti - involution" expectation led to the price rebound [64][65][66] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US November CPI was better than expected, but the data was questionable, leading to market fluctuations. The international gold and silver prices fluctuated widely, and the US dollar index and US bond yields changed. The market was in a long - short tug - of - war, and the gold and silver prices were expected to maintain a high - level range [67][68][69] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The trading enthusiasm was over - high, and the risk factors were gradually accumulating. The platinum and palladium futures prices increased significantly, and the trading volume expanded. The macro - environment was favorable, and the news boosted the demand outlook. The platinum was short - term bullish, and the palladium might be affected by the macro - environment [69][70][71] - **Copper**: Buy after a full correction. The copper futures prices increased, and the inventory increased. The US inflation data affected the market, and the copper supply was expected to be tight in 2026. The long - term price trend was upward, but the short - term might be in shock [74][75][76] - **Alumina**: The price was in a weak shock. The alumina futures price declined, and the spot price decreased slightly. The overseas supply negotiation and domestic inventory situation affected the price. The price was expected to be under pressure after the "anti - involution" expectation subsided [78][79][80] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas economic data was released this week, and the aluminum price rebounded. The electrolytic aluminum futures price increased, and the inventory decreased. The overseas economic data was better than expected, and the domestic demand was resilient. The price was supported [83][84][85] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The scrap aluminum supply was still tight, and the alloy price rebounded with the sector. The cast aluminum alloy futures price increased, and the spot price increased. The scrap aluminum supply was tight, and the cost supported the price. The price was expected to maintain a high - level shock [86][87] - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the domestic social inventory today. The zinc futures price increased, and the spot price had a small change. The overseas zinc inventory increased, and the domestic smelting profit was compressed. The price was under pressure from the external market [88][89][90] - **Lead**: Pay attention to the inventory change. The lead futures price increased, and the spot price decreased slightly. The domestic lead supply and demand decreased, and the inventory became more visible. The price was expected to maintain a range shock [91][92][93] - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy expectation stimulated the nickel price rebound, but the surplus suppressed the upward space. The LME nickel price increased, and the inventory decreased. The global nickel was in a surplus situation, but the Indonesian policy adjustment stimulated the price rebound. The price was expected to decline after the short - term rebound [93][94][95] - **Stainless Steel**: Followed the nickel price and weakened in shock. The stainless steel inventory decreased, and the terminal demand was in the off - season. The price was affected by the nickel price and demand, and it was expected to be at a low - level shock [96][97][99] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sell on rallies. The industrial silicon was in a state of inventory accumulation. The demand in the first quarter of 2026 was pessimistic, and the price was expected to decline. It was recommended to sell on rallies [99][100] - **Polysilicon**: Realize the profits of long positions and pay attention to risk management. The polysilicon futures trading rules changed. The downstream demand was relatively pessimistic, and the short - term price was expected to be strong. It was recommended to take profits on long positions and buy after a correction [100][101][103] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The inventory reduction was slower than expected, and the lithium price was under pressure to correct. The lithium carbonate price had a short - term correction, and the inventory reduction was slow. The price was expected to be at a high - level, and it was recommended to operate cautiously [104][105] - **Tin**: Pay attention to the November export data from Myanmar. The tin futures price increased, and the inventory increased. The US inflation data was questionable, and the domestic tin supply and demand were weak. The price was expected to be affected by the Myanmar export data and market fluctuations [107][108][109] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: MSK released the price of 2500/2600 for the first week, and pay attention to the January freight rate change path. The spot freight rate increased slightly. The European port congestion was serious, and the demand was expected to improve in December - January. The short - term price was expected to be at a high - level shock, and it was recommended to take partial profits on long positions [110][111][113] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The surplus pressure was difficult to change, and the oil price rebound was limited. The crude oil futures prices increased slightly. The US inflation and employment data changed, and the geopolitical situation was uncertain. The oil price was expected to be in a weak shock in the medium - term [114][115][116] - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand was weak, and the raw material risk remained. The asphalt futures price declined, and the spot price was stable. The terminal demand decreased, and the raw material supply was uncertain. The price was expected to be in a narrow - range shock [117][118][119] - **Fuel Oil**: The short - term low - sulfur supply was continuously increasing. The fuel oil futures prices increased slightly. The low - sulfur supply was expected to increase, and the high - sulfur demand was stable and weak. The short - term price was expected to be bearish [120][121][122] - **Natural Gas**: The LNG downward trend remained unchanged. The natural gas futures prices had different changes. The weather affected the demand, and the overall supply was loose. The HH2602 contract long positions were recommended to be held [124][125][126] - **LPG**: The PDH profit continued to be in deficit. The LPG futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The international LPG market was strong, and the PDH profit was in deficit. It was recommended to short the 03 contract on rallies [127][128][129] - **PX & PTA**: The polyester sales volume increased, and the market atmosphere was boosted. The PX and PTA futures prices increased. The PTA supply was expected to increase slowly, and the downstream polyester demand was high. The price was expected to be shock - upward [131][132] - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene supply - demand was loose, and the styrene basis weakened. The pure benzene and styrene futures prices declined slightly. The pure benzene supply increased and demand decreased, and the styrene supply and demand were also weak. The price was expected to be in a weak shock [134][135][136] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure remained, and the price was in shock. The ethylene glycol futures price increased slightly. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory had a de - stocking pressure. The short - term price was expected to be in shock and weak in the medium - term [138][139] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand was weak. The short - fiber futures price increased. The short - fiber supply and demand decreased, and the processing fee was under pressure. The price was expected to be shock - upward [140][142] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand was relatively loose. The bottle - chip futures price increased. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was relatively stable. The price was expected to be shock - upward [143][144] - **Propylene**: The demand was poor, and the rebound was weak. The propylene futures price increased first and then decreased. The propylene supply was expected to be high, and the demand was weak. The short - term price was expected to be shock - upward [146][147] - **Plastic PP**: The PE production decreased month - on - month, and the PP production increased month - on - month. The L and PP futures prices declined slightly. The PE and PP supply and demand had different changes. It was recommended to wait and see for the L and PP 2605 contracts [148][150][151] - **Caustic Soda**: The price was in a shock trend. The caustic soda spot price had a small adjustment. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a weak shock [152][153][154] - **PVC**: The price continued to rebound. The PVC futures price increased, and the spot price increased slightly. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to continue to rebound [155][156][157] - **Soda Ash**: The futures price was in a strong trend. The soda ash futures price increased, and the spot price had a small change. The supply was expected to be under pressure in the future, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be shock - upward next week with a risk of decline at the end of the month [157][158][159] - **Glass**: The futures price was in a strong trend. The glass futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The supply was expected to be reduced, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be shock - upward next week with a risk of decline at the end of the month [160][161][163] - **Methanol**: The price rose strongly. The methanol production increased, and the international device operation was affected. The price was expected to be shock - upward [165][166] - **Urea**: The price continued to rise. The urea production decreased slightly, and the international market had an impact. The short - term price was expected to be strong, and the medium - long - term supply - demand was relatively loose [167][168][169] - **Pulp**: The reality was weak, but the expectation was strong. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt registration and port inventory changes. The pulp futures price declined slightly, and the spot price had a small adjustment. The cost supported the price, but the demand was weak. It was recommended to hold the previous short positions [170][171][173] - **Logs**: The fundamentals were weak, and the futures - spot price was inverted. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt registration. The log price was stable, and the inventory and arrival volume changed. The price was expected to continue to bottom - out. It was recommended to hold the 03 long positions [173][174][175] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply pressure remained, and the high pulp price transmission did not meet expectations. The offset printing paper futures price declined slightly, and the spot price was stable. The production and inventory of double - offset paper and coated paper changed. The price was expected to be bearish [179][180] - **Natural Rubber**: The tire production line decreased month - on - month. The natural rubber futures prices had different changes. The Thai government took measures to stabilize the price, and the domestic tire production decreased. It was recommended to short the RU 05 contract slightly and hold the NR 02 contract long positions [182][183] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The BD & BR production decreased marginally, and the tire production decreased month - on - month. The butadiene rubber futures price increased, and the natural rubber futures prices had different changes. The domestic butadiene and tire production decreased. It was recommended to hold the BR 02 contract long positions [186][187][188]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 能源化⼯组研究团队 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-19 地缘仍扰动原油市场，化⼯预期⼒量开 始主导 美国劳工统计局周四公布的数据显示，剔除波动性较大的食品和能源 的核心消费者价格指数(CPI)11月同比上涨2.6%，同比增速创2021年初以 来最低，持续数月顽固的物价压力有所缓和。CPI公布后，美国股指期货 扩大涨幅，美债收益率和美元走低。受元旦和新年假期的临近，原油成交 略降，这可能会放大价格波动。美国如何制裁俄罗斯，迫使后者愿意进行 和平谈判，以及委内瑞拉的原油供应受影响程度，这是近期影响油价的关 键变量。 板块逻辑： 随着大部分化工主力逐步从01合约转向05合约，预期交易将慢慢成为 主线，因当前距离05合约有近半年的时长。化工实际需求逐步进入淡季， 开工在冬季通常处于较高开工，化工05合约当前更是一种偏震荡态势。即 使春季检修规模较大，当前的高库存如何消化，春节期间下游停工又会有 新的累库，这部分压力如何缓解，这些都会加大05的波动率。苯乙烯周度 自身开工环比增2.4%，下游开工下降2-3%不等；PTA自身开工环比持平， 下游聚酯维持在9 ...

许多投资者希望借助黄金抵御经济波动，却常常将现货黄金与购买实物金饰混为一谈。现货黄金是一种国际金融衍生工具，通过杠杆机制支持全天候交易， 为投资者提供基于价格变动的灵活机会。 截至2025年12月18日，现货黄金价格在4330美元/盎司附近高位震荡，受美联储政策调整及全球避险情绪影响，年内涨幅显著。 现货黄金的基本概念 现货黄金的市场特点 现货黄金市场实现24小时不间断交易，从亚洲到欧洲再到美洲时区无缝衔接，确保投资者能及时应对国际事件。 现货黄金，通常称为伦敦金，是以美元计价的国际黄金交易品种。其起源可追溯到伦敦黄金市场，早期的标准化模式奠定了今日全球贵金属交易的基础。 与实物黄金不同，现货黄金无需实际持有或交割金条，而是通过价格差额结算。这使得交易更注重市场流动性和透明度，而非存储与物流问题。 金盛贵金属作为香港黄金交易所认可的电子交易商，提供相关现货黄金服务，帮助投资者参与这一全球性市场。业内人士指出，现货黄金常被视为反映宏观 经济和地缘因素的资产。 现货黄金的核心交易规则 现货黄金采用T+0模式，意味着投资者可在同一日内多次进出仓位，操作更为灵活。 它还允许双向操作：价格上涨时可做多，下跌时可做空，从 ...

德勤中国华南区主管合伙人欧振兴表示，香港新股市场的前景仍将在一定程度上受到宏观经济及地缘政 治因素影响，包括美国货币政策走向、全球资金配置动向，以及中国企业出海与扩大内需的政策取向。 与此同时，资本市场的持续改革与制度优化，将在提升香港市场整体竞争力、流动性及估值水平方面发 挥关键作用，并逐步改善新股市场的生态与表现。 他续指，市场近日就修订同股不同权公司上市要求、调整新股买卖单位等改革展开讨论，亦期望监管机 构能进一步检视双重主要上市及第二上市制度，深化港交所与东南亚证券交易所的合作，并建立更具针 对性的机制，便利海外企业来港上市。 智通财经APP获悉，12月18日，德勤中国资本市场服务部发布《中国内地及香港IPO市场 2025年回顾与 2026年前景展望》。资本市场服务部预测，在目前超过300宗上市申请个案的名单支持下，2026年全 年，香港新股市场将有约160只新股，融资不少于3000亿港元。预计其中将有7只新股，每只最少融资 100亿港元，其中包括内地龙头企业。除了有大量A+H股上市申请人外，科技、传媒及电讯、医疗、消 费、国际公司以及在美上市的中概股的上市项目也将成为市场关注的焦点。 德勤提及，美国 ...

欧盟拟用冻结俄资产援乌，争议中寻求突破。 近日，欧盟就是否动用被冻结的俄罗斯资产援助乌克兰展开讨论，计划通过贷款方式提供资金。这一举 措引发多方关切，各方在平衡援助需求与金融稳定之间寻求共识。 这一提议面临不少争议。 俄罗斯总统普京表示，动用冻结资产相当于"侵占他人财产"，俄方已对欧洲清算银行发起法律诉讼，并 警告可能采取对等措施。 另一方面，部分欧盟成员国如比利时对此持保留态度，担心此举可能被视为变相没收资产，若俄罗斯通 过法律途径索赔，持有大量俄资产的比利时可能面临巨额赔偿风险。 比利时提出，需获得欧盟全面担保，并希望其他持有俄资产的国家共同参与。 欧盟目前已冻结俄罗斯央行约2100亿欧元的资产，主要存放在总部位于布鲁塞尔的欧洲清算银行。 随着乌克兰局势持续，欧盟考虑利用这笔资产作为担保，通过欧洲清算银行向乌克兰提供900亿欧元的 贷款，以满足其2026年至2027年约三分之二的资金需求。 根据安排，只有在未来俄罗斯同意支付相关款项后，乌克兰才会逐步偿还贷款，而俄罗斯在法律上仍是 这些资产的所有者。 此外，德国总理默茨等欧盟领导人虽支持利用资产收益援助乌克兰，但也担忧影响欧元区金融稳定及投 资者信心。 由 ...

客户端 原油： 周三油价重心大幅反弹，其中WTI 1月合约收盘上涨0.67美元至55.94美元/桶，涨幅1.21%。布伦特2月合 约收盘上涨0.76美元至59.68美元/桶，涨幅1.29%。随后在电子盘时间，油价再度拉涨。SC2601夜盘以 424.9元/桶收盘，上涨1.6元/桶，涨幅为0.38%。特朗普下令全面封锁所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮， 受此影响，油价低位反弹。特朗普在社交媒体上发文说，认定委内瑞拉现政府是"外国恐怖组织"。近 来，特朗普多次公开宣称，美国将开始对加勒比海地区的"毒贩"实施陆地打击，并提及委内瑞拉和哥伦 比亚。一个星期前，美国在委内瑞拉海岸扣押了一艘受制裁的油轮。EIA公布的库存报告显示，上周美 国原油库存减少，汽油和馏分油库存增加。数据显示，截至12月12日当周，美国原油库存减少127.4万 桶至4.24417亿桶。美国汽油库存增加480.8万桶至2.25627亿桶。包括柴油和取暖油在内的馏分油库存增 加171.2万桶至1.185亿桶。当周，俄克拉荷马州库欣交割中心的原油库存减少74.2万桶至2086万桶。其 中原油库存下降，成品油库存上升。从供应维度来看，巴西的增长将主要受到新的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to close short positions on a phased basis. Geopolitical factors such as the situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela are continuously disturbing the market, and the oil price will continue to oscillate. Different chemical products show different trends due to factors such as raw material supply, device status, and market demand [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela are continuously disturbing, and the oil price continues to oscillate. The EIA data shows a seasonal pattern of crude oil inventory reduction and gasoline and diesel inventory accumulation in the US last week. Geopolitical factors dominate short - term fluctuations [8]. - **Asphalt**: Anticipated disruptions in raw material supply cause a sharp rise in asphalt futures prices. If there is a substantial supply cut, the asphalt futures price will be strong; otherwise, it may rise and then fall. The asphalt market has weak supply and demand, and the demand is in the off - season [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price of high - sulfur fuel oil is driven up by the escalating situation between the US and Venezuela. However, the demand outlook is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with the crude oil price. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Currently, its valuation is low [13]. - **PX**: The cost decline slows down, and PX profitability continues to expand. The polyester load remains high, and the market expects a tight supply of raw materials in 2026, so PX is likely to rise easily and fall difficult in the short term [14]. - **PTA**: It follows the rise of upstream costs, and the spot basis remains firm. The overall supply - demand pattern of near - month PTA is relatively tight, and the profit has stronger support below [15]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is in a state of weak reality and divided expectations. The recent trading focuses on far - month device maintenance and storage pressure. The market has different expectations for the balance in Q1 2026 [17][19]. - **Styrene**: Both upward and downward movements are restricted, and it oscillates. The support from crude oil and the cost side is insufficient, but its own supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in December [21]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Factories reduce production to maintain prices, and ethylene glycol rebounds after an over - decline. In the short term, the supply - demand pressure eases slightly, but the long - term inventory accumulation pattern remains [22]. - **Short - Fiber**: The decline in upstream costs eases, and the short - fiber price fluctuates with the upstream. The factory inventory decreases slightly, and the support for processing fees below is enhanced [24][26]. - **Polyester Bottle Chip**: The price is supported by upstream raw material costs. It follows the rise of upstream polyester raw materials, but the price increase is limited due to the restart of some devices [28][29]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disturbances occur again, and methanol is expected to oscillate strongly. The port inventory decreases, and there are expectations of supply reduction in the Middle East and non - Iranian sources [30][31]. - **Urea**: A new round of Indian tenders and enterprise inventory - reduction information boost the market, and the futures price rebounds temporarily. The actual fundamental support is insufficient, and the impact of Indian tenders on the domestic market is relatively limited [32][34]. - **Plastic**: The oil price weakens, and the support from maintenance is limited. It oscillates weakly. The fundamental support is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [36]. - **PP**: The expectation of maintenance provides support, and it oscillates. The PDH profit is under short - term pressure, and the supply - demand pattern is still under pressure [37]. - **PL**: The spot is strong, and the expectation of PDH maintenance provides support. It oscillates. The PDH maintenance expectation has a boosting effect, but the short - term powder profit is under pressure [38]. - **PVC**: The exit of overseas devices boosts market sentiment. However, the over - supply expectation in the PVC market has not been reversed, and it is expected to oscillate in the medium term [39]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations and is likely to oscillate. There is short - term inventory reduction, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand is under pressure [40][41]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [43]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest values and changes [44]. - **Inter - Variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are given, along with the latest values and changes [45]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summaries are provided in the given text for this part, only the variety names are mentioned. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and PPI commodity index all show an upward trend on December 17, 2025 [285]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 17, 2025 shows a decline. The daily, 5 - day, 1 - month, and year - to - date percentage changes are - 0.69%, - 2.18%, - 7.35%, and - 12.62% respectively [286].