Group 1 - The offshore RMB against the USD broke the 7.1 mark for the first time since November 7, 2024, with a peak of 7.0965 on September 17, indicating a 0.34% increase since the beginning of September [1] - The onshore RMB is also approaching the 7.1 threshold, closing at 7.1056 on September 17, reflecting a 0.46% increase in September [1] - The appreciation of the RMB is attributed to market expectations of the Federal Reserve initiating a rate cut cycle, leading to a weaker USD and increased demand for RMB assets from foreign investors [1][2] Group 2 - Despite external pressures and weak domestic demand, China's economy has maintained a stable and progressive development trend due to effective macro policies and the acceleration of the national unified market [2] - Key economic indicators have remained stable in the first eight months of the year, supporting the long-term positive outlook for the economy [2] - The recent rise in the RMB against the USD is driven by expectations of significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and strong inflows of foreign capital into the domestic stock market [2][3] Group 3 - The USD index is expected to face downward pressure, while major non-USD currencies, including the RMB, are likely to appreciate [3] - The significant decline of the USD in the first half of the year has been largely priced in, and the current economic conditions in Europe and Japan may provide the USD with stronger resistance against further declines [3] - Domestic counter-cyclical adjustment policies are expected to ensure basic stability in economic operations, providing intrinsic support for the RMB exchange rate [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The price of spot gold has recently experienced significant fluctuations, reaching a historical peak of $3702.93 per ounce before settling at $3689.60, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and geopolitical risks [1][2] - The weakening of the US dollar, which fell by 0.74% to a low of 96.54, has provided additional support for gold prices, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies [2][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is approaching the $3700 mark, with support levels identified at $3660-3653 and potential upward targets around $3710 and $3750 [4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures have seen a slight decline to $68.46 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures also dropped to $64.51 per barrel, amid concerns over potential supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions [5][6] - The market is anticipating a Federal Reserve interest rate cut of 25 basis points, which is expected to stimulate economic activity and fuel demand [5] - Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are currently in a weak consolidation phase, with short-term upward trends expected, particularly if prices break above resistance levels of $66.0-67.0 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range from 4.25%-4.5%, amidst differing opinions on future policy directions [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - There is a division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the extent of the rate cut, with some advocating for a larger reduction due to concerns over economic growth, while others worry about inflation remaining above the 2% target [1]. - The overall trend indicates the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle, which is seen as favorable for precious metals [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The gold price in Shanghai fell by 0.36%, closing at 835.08 yuan per gram [3]. - The current risks in the U.S. job market and the political instability in Europe are contributing to a decline in the dollar index, increasing institutional investors' demand for precious metals as a safe haven [5]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve decision is likely to release dovish signals, which may lead to increased market volatility and differing interpretations of the decision [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is influenced by expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and strong inflows of foreign capital into the domestic stock market [1][3]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Movements - In August, the onshore and offshore RMB appreciated by 0.83% and 1.21% against the US dollar, respectively [1]. - As of September 17, the onshore RMB reached a high of 7.1080 and the offshore RMB peaked at 7.1003 [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision is contributing to a decline in the US dollar index, which is providing upward momentum for non-USD currencies, including the RMB [3]. - The strong performance of the domestic stock market is attracting foreign investment, increasing demand for currency exchange and improving market sentiment [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts and the impact of US government tariffs on the economy becomes more pronounced, the US dollar index may face further downward pressure, making it easier for non-USD currencies to appreciate [3]. - The domestic economic policies aimed at stabilizing economic performance will provide essential support for the RMB exchange rate, which is expected to maintain a stable trajectory with limited risk of rapid appreciation or depreciation [3].

欧洲三大股指16日全线下跌。英国伦敦股市《金融时报》100种股票平均价格指数报收于9195.66点，较前一交易日下跌81.37点，跌幅为0.88%；法国巴黎股 市CAC40指数报收于7818.22点，较前一交易日下跌78.71点，跌幅为1.00%；德国法兰克福股市DAX指数报收于23329.24点，较前一交易日下跌419.62点，跌 美东时间周二（16日）美股三大指数高开低走，集体收跌。截至收盘，道指跌0.27%，纳指跌0.07%，标普500指数跌0.13%。美国消费者与商业频道(CNBC) 称，由于投资者在备受期待的美联储利率决定公布前获利了结，股市小幅下跌。 幅为1.77%。路透社分析称，投资者在美联储披露货币政策前变得谨慎，对利率敏感的金融板块走弱拖累欧股下跌。 国际油价16日上涨。截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所10月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.22美元，收于每桶64.52美元，涨幅为1.93%；11月交货的伦敦布伦 特原油期货价格上涨1.03美元，收于每桶68.47美元，涨幅为1.53%。 来源：Wind 美国大型科技股涨跌不一，特斯拉涨近3%，脸书涨近2%，亚马逊涨超1%，苹果涨0.61%，谷歌跌0 ...

周二（9月16日，美联储货币政策会议开幕当天）纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数跌0.69%，报96.630点，日内 交投区间为97.388-96.556点，逼近7月1日底部76.377点和2022年2月21日底部95.686点，全天持续、平滑 地震荡下挫，仅仅亚太盘初微幅上涨。彭博美元指数跌0.55%，报1188.36点，日内交投区间为1195.49- 1187.71点。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Currency Market - The US dollar index fell by 0.56%, reaching 96.81 points, while the euro rose to 1.1836, the highest level since September 2021 [1] - The USD/JPY decreased by 0.5% to 146.66, and the GBP/USD increased by 0.4559% to 1.3662 [1] Commodity Market - Spot gold surged past $3700 per ounce, marking a 0.56% increase and setting a new historical high, with a total annual increase of $1076 per ounce [2] Stock Market - US stock indices opened slightly higher, with the Nasdaq up 0.22%, S&P 500 up 0.13%, and Dow Jones up 0.08% [3] - WEBTOON's stock rose by 32% following Disney's acquisition of a 2% stake in the company [4] - Wolf Speed, a global silicon carbide manufacturer, saw its stock increase by over 6%, doubling its market value in the last three trading days [5] - The New York Times stock fell approximately 2% due to a $15 billion defamation lawsuit filed by former President Trump [6] - Several cryptocurrency-related stocks saw early gains, with Figure up over 8% and Circle nearly 5% [7] Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - President Trump signed documents for Stephen Milan's appointment to the Federal Reserve, emphasizing the need for the Fed's independence [8] - Milan is expected to participate in the Federal Reserve meeting starting on September 16 [9] - Analysts suggest that at least three Fed governors, including those appointed by Trump, may support a rate cut in the upcoming meeting [11] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 95.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 17 meeting, with a 4.2% chance of a 50 basis point cut [13]

Core Points - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to its lowest level since July 4, with a daily decline of nearly 0.5%, currently reported at 96.89 [1] Group 1 - The decline in the DXY indicates a weakening of the US dollar against other currencies [1] - The drop in the index may have implications for international trade and investment flows [1] - Market participants may interpret this movement as a signal of changing economic conditions or monetary policy expectations [1]

每经AI快讯，9月16日，美元指数跌至7月4日以来的最低水平，最新下跌0.47%，报96.89。 ...

截至今日发稿，美元指数跌0.38%，报96.99点，创7月7日以来新低。 ...