Core Points - The ICE Dollar Index fell over 0.05% to a daily low of 99.319 points after President Trump referred to Hassett as a "potential" Federal Reserve Chairman [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index also dropped over 0.05%, reaching a daily low of 1217.02 points following Trump's comments about Hassett [1] - Earlier in the day, the ICE Dollar Index peaked at 99.567 points, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index reached a high of 1219.47 points [1]

欧元兑美元在周一于1.1650区域受阻后，仍维持在1.1600上方 全球债券抛售推升美国国债收益率，为美元提供一定支撑 衡量美元兑六种主要货币汇率的美元指数（DXY）周一获得支撑，尽管美国ISM制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）疲软——该数据表明制造业活动连续第九个 月萎缩，新订单和就业岗位减少，通胀压力上升。 日本央行行长植田和男周一引发市场震荡，暗示可能在12月加息。此番言论触发全球债券市场抛售潮，推升美国国债收益率，为疲软美元提供支撑。 周二早间日本国债拍卖反响良好，在一定程度上缓解了市场担忧，但风险偏好仍显疲软。今日美国经济数据清淡，市场焦点仍将集中于周三公布的ISM服务 业PMI及ADP就业变化报告。 周一公布的美国ISM制造业PMI显示，11月制造业活动进一步收缩，指数从10月的48.7降至48.2，远低于预期值48.6。新订单指数从49.4跌至47.4，就业指数 从10月的46降至11月的44。支付价格指数从58.0升至58.5，凸显贸易关税引发的通胀压力。 欧元区制造业数据同样令人失望。最终版HCOB制造业PMI从10月持平于50.0的水平，经下修后降至11月五个月低点49.6（初值为49.7）。 ...

Group 1 - The ICE Dollar Index decreased by 0.05%, closing at 99.402 points [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index remained relatively stable, reported at 1217.91 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing a range-bound consolidation, reflecting intense market speculation regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, particularly the uncertainty surrounding the December interest rate decision [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar index showed a slight recovery compared to the end of November, indicating a month-on-month decline that highlights the market's fierce debate over Federal Reserve policy expectations [1] - In November, market expectations shifted significantly, with a notable drop in the anticipation of a rate cut in December due to delays in the release of the October non-farm payroll report and divergent views among Federal Reserve policymakers [1] - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" revealed a decline in consumer spending and a weak job market, leading to a resurgence in the probability of a rate cut in December, which subsequently pressured the dollar index [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The dollar index is currently in a narrow range, with the upper boundary corresponding to the retracement neckline formed by the high on November 19, and the lower boundary representing recent low points, indicating a typical "box consolidation" pattern [2] - Short-term moving averages have formed a golden cross but are flattening, while medium to long-term moving averages are diverging downward, suggesting weak short-term support but an unresolved medium-term downtrend [2] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near neutral, indicating insufficient market momentum, while the MACD shows a narrowing green histogram followed by a slight increase in the red histogram, suggesting potential direction selection after short-term fluctuations [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - In the medium to long term, the Federal Reserve may have more room to cut rates in 2026 compared to other non-US central banks, potentially leading to a further downward shift in the dollar's volatility center [3] - Despite significant declines in 2025, the US economy still holds advantages over Europe and Japan, suggesting that any further declines in the dollar may be limited next year [3] - Various risk factors, including the US midterm elections and the execution of tariff agreements, are expected to intermittently disrupt market sentiment and increase exchange rate volatility [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Last week, Shanghai copper increased in volume and price, mainly due to the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the weakening of the US dollar index. On Friday night, copper prices continued to rise, with LME copper breaking through the $11,000 mark and hitting a new high, while Shanghai copper approached the 89,000 mark. Technically, the open interest of Shanghai copper increased from 510,000 contracts to 560,000 contracts last week, showing strong short - term upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the end - October high. If it breaks through, it may maintain a strong trend in the short term [6][63]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices rebounded with a decrease in positions, and there was a trend of increasing positions and rising prices on Friday night. This rebound was mainly driven by macro factors, such as the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The decline in the Shanghai - LME ratio indicated that the rise was mainly led by the external market. Globally, the low inventory of electrolytic aluminum supported the price. However, as aluminum prices rebounded, domestic downstream demand decreased, and the spot discount widened. Technically, attention can be paid to the pressure at the 22,000 mark [7][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - Last week, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continued to rise, with the probability of a December rate cut increasing from 70% to nearly 90%. Correspondingly, the US dollar index weakened from the 100 mark, which was beneficial to non - ferrous metals and precious metals [11]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity - Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper increased in volume and price. On Friday night, copper prices continued to rise, with LME copper breaking through the $11,000 mark and Shanghai copper approaching the 89,000 mark. The open interest of Shanghai copper increased from 510,000 contracts to 560,000 contracts, indicating increased capital attention and strong short - term upward momentum [6][63]. 3.2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, the port inventory of copper ore continued to rise from a low level and was close to the same - period level in previous years. On November 28, Mysteel's port inventory of copper ore was 674,000 tons, an increase of 78,000 tons from the previous week. In November, with the rise in sulfuric acid prices, the upstream smelting profit also rebounded [25]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Copper Stockpiling - On November 27, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 171,600 tons, a weekly decrease of 20,500 tons, while the inventory in COMEX + LME was 574,800 tons, a weekly increase of 18,400 tons [27]. 3.2.4 Downstream Primary Sector - As copper prices rose, the downstream market showed a situation of "not prosperous in the peak season", and the copper product start - up rate declined month - on - month in October. In November, the overall downstream entered the off - season, and copper prices remained high. It is expected that the downstream capacity utilization rate will remain at a low level in November [29]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity - Price Trend - Last week, aluminum prices rebounded with a decrease in positions, and there was a trend of increasing positions and rising prices on Friday night. The decline in the Shanghai - LME ratio indicated that the rise was mainly led by the external market. Technically, attention can be paid to the pressure at the 22,000 mark [7][63]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - On November 21, the port inventory of bauxite was 28.0705 million tons, an increase of 46,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 9.7005 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina was weak, with the main contract price falling below the 2700 mark, while aluminum prices rose with the non - ferrous metal sector, and the profit of upstream electrolytic aluminum widened [45][47]. 3.3.3 Slowing Depletion of Electrolytic Aluminum - In November, as aluminum prices continued to rise, overseas electrolytic aluminum showed a stockpiling trend, and the depletion of domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory slowed down. On November 27, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 590,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous week, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 544,700 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous week [50]. 3.3.4 Downstream Primary Sector - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods generally declined from a high level, mainly due to the rebound of aluminum prices, which led to a decrease in downstream demand. The inventory of aluminum rods remained at a low level, with the in - factory inventory at 91,400 tons, a slight increase of 2,900 tons from the previous week [56][59].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the US dollar is supporting silver prices, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve influencing market sentiment [3]. Group 1: Silver Price Movement - As of December 1, 2025, the spot silver price is at $57.24 per ounce, with a daily range between $56.15 and $57.86 [1][2]. - The silver price opened at $56.32 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Expectations - The upcoming ISM manufacturing PMI report is anticipated to impact market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3]. - There is an increased betting on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with a probability of 87.4% for this outcome [3]. - The market is also pricing in a 67.5% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by January 2026 [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Silver - The silver price remains significantly above the 100-day EMA of $45.60, indicating a strong bullish trend [4]. - The RSI is at 73.47, suggesting an overbought condition, which may lead to a potential consolidation phase [4]. - Initial support for a price pullback is identified at the Bollinger Band midline near $51.29, with further support at $51.04 if the first level fails [4].

反之，如数据符合或者是低于预期，则可能点燃市场对明年降息的强烈预期，给美元带来下行压力。并 提振金价大幅走强。 日图；金价自筑底布林带中轨支撑盘整后，多头反弹拉升走强，目前30日等众多均线已转为支撑，布林 带也开口向上延伸，多头前景加大，附图指标也维持看涨信号发展，短期方向将仍以看涨反弹为主，下 方关注5日均线支撑附近仍以看涨为主，继续等待上探4260美元或4380美元目标。 本周全球主要经济体将密集发布一系列关键经济指标，重点关注周三的美国11月ADP就业人数(万人)以 及美国9月核心PCE物价指数年率，目前市场预期ADP减少，PCE通胀减弱，将会进一步增强降息预 期，而会支持金价。故此，即便是最终公布好于预期，预计也是震荡波动为主。 本周周一，黄金开盘先行快速的震荡走盘，并之后维持，虽有一定的短线回落预期，但整体前景仍偏向 看涨上行，另外，美元指数开盘仍偏弱运行，则对其金价产生一定支撑。因而，日内操作仍以低多看涨 为主。 ...

今日周一(12月1日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于13031一线上方，今日开盘于12720元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报13280元/千克，上涨5.88%，最高触及13520元/千克，最低下探12675元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 中国太阳能装置的大幅增加也提振了银价。国家能源局数据显示，10月份新增太阳能装机容量为12.6吉 瓦，比上个月高出30%。按照这一速度，2025年的太阳能装置预计将与2024年创纪录的277千兆瓦的年 增长相匹配。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银在上涨趋势下刷新高点至13400，这也是历史性的时刻，上个周期的看涨目标在12450，现在有超过 了1000个点，这波白银刷新高点，不猜顶，按照市场目前的走法，还有很大的上涨空间，下方支撑在 13150，13000，看在本周调整是否有做多的机会。沪银主力合约参考运行区间12650-13400。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 上周美元指数下跌0.69%，创下7月21日以来最大单周跌幅。这种势头直接源于市场对美联储降息的押 注，因为降息通常会削弱美元的吸引力。由于白银以美元计价，美元走弱支撑了银价。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is currently dragged down by the "weak volume and price" situation, with significant marginal decline. In the short - term, it will face pressure and maintain a weak oscillation. In the long - term, it is expected to enter a repair channel in 2025 [2]. - The upward space of the US dollar index is limited, and it will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short - term. The release of November non - farm payroll data and the determination of the Fed chair candidate will test its resilience [2]. - The RMB exchange rate will likely show a complex pattern of depreciation trend (appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar) and volatility risks coexisting within the year. In the short - term, it will be robust and strong, but the appreciation speed may slow down, and the two - way fluctuation will be more obvious [4][5]. - The stock index trading atmosphere is sluggish and is expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the logic of valuation repair driven by liquidity easing remains unchanged [6][7]. - The mid - term outlook for treasury bonds is not pessimistic. Although the market is weak due to rumors, the economic fundamentals suggest that interest rates will remain low for some time, waiting for monetary policy signals [8]. - The container shipping European line futures are expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with geopolitical trends as the key variable [11][12]. - Precious metals prices are expected to continue rising in the long - term, driven by central bank gold purchases and investment demand. In the short - term, low inventory and potential demand release will increase the upward elasticity of prices [14][16]. - Copper prices are expected to continue to break through at the end of the year. The impact of PMI data and US ADP employment changes on market sentiment should be noted [17][20]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. Alumina will run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly [20][21]. - Zinc prices are expected to continue to build a bottom, with short - term strong oscillation due to supply contraction and demand decline [23]. - Nickel and stainless steel will maintain a wide - range oscillation, with a downward trend due to weak fundamentals. Tin prices will maintain a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [23][25]. - Carbonate lithium prices will be in a game range, waiting for a driving force. It is recommended to avoid chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton and seize opportunities to build positions on dips [26][27]. - Industrial silicon will be in a weak supply - demand situation, with short - term oscillation and long - term value for position building on dips. Polysilicon trading is shifting to the game between warehouse receipts and positions, and position risks should be noted [28][31]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 16,900 - 17,300 yuan, with strong support at 16,700 yuan [32]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3,000 - 3,300 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3,200 - 3,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption [33][35]. - Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with short - term valuation repair. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [36][37]. - Coking coal and coke prices are under pressure. For coking coal, short - term short positions can be held, and long positions can be considered for the far - month contract after a stable signal. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward market [38][39]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [40][41]. - Crude oil prices will continue to oscillate, with a long - term downward trend due to supply - surplus pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policy implementation and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [43][45]. - LPG prices are supported by supply - demand conditions and the external market, although the domestic LPG valuation is relatively high [47][48]. - PX - PTA prices may fall back after the departure of speculation funds. It is recommended to consider building long positions on dips, with attention to maintenance plans and blending oil dynamics [49][53]. - MEG prices have a weakened downward drive, and it is recommended to sell call options. The long - term supply - surplus situation remains unchanged [55][57]. - Urea prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the downside space supported and the upside pressured [58][59]. - PP prices are supported by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the PDH device operation status and basis changes [60][63]. - PE prices are expected to continue to oscillate after a rebound. Attention should be paid to the spot situation and basis changes [64][65]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are affected by device maintenance. Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [66][68]. - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking may rebound after the stabilization of Dar Blend discount [69][70]. - Asphalt prices will maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with attention to winter storage policies [71][72]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly [73]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's November official manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.2, and the high - tech manufacturing PMI remained above 50 for 10 consecutive months. The US "Black Friday" sales increased by 4.1% year - on - year, and the AI traffic soared by 600%. The US - Ukraine negotiation was considered "productive" [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0794 on the previous trading day, up 12 points. The RMB against the US dollar central parity rate was 7.0789, down 10 points. The RMB exchange rate is expected to show a complex pattern of appreciation and volatility risks [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The trading atmosphere is sluggish, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the logic of valuation repair driven by liquidity easing remains unchanged [6][7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The mid - term outlook is not pessimistic. Although the market is weak due to rumors, the economic fundamentals suggest that interest rates will remain low for some time, waiting for monetary policy signals [7][8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The futures are expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with geopolitical trends as the key variable [11][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Precious metals prices are expected to continue rising in the long - term, driven by central bank gold purchases and investment demand. In the short - term, low inventory and potential demand release will increase the upward elasticity of prices [14][16]. - **Copper**: Copper prices are expected to continue to break through at the end of the year. The impact of PMI data and US ADP employment changes on market sentiment should be noted [17][20]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. Alumina will run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly [20][21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are expected to continue to build a bottom, with short - term strong oscillation due to supply contraction and demand decline [23]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel will maintain a wide - range oscillation, with a downward trend due to weak fundamentals [23][24]. - **Tin**: Tin prices will maintain a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium prices will be in a game range, waiting for a driving force. It is recommended to avoid chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton and seize opportunities to build positions on dips [26][27]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will be in a weak supply - demand situation, with short - term oscillation and long - term value for position building on dips. Polysilicon trading is shifting to the game between warehouse receipts and positions, and position risks should be noted [28][31]. - **Lead**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 16,900 - 17,300 yuan, with strong support at 16,700 yuan [32]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3,000 - 3,300 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3,200 - 3,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption [33][35]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with short - term valuation repair. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [36][37]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Coking coal and coke prices are under pressure. For coking coal, short - term short positions can be held, and long positions can be considered for the far - month contract after a stable signal. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward market [38][39]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [40][41]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices will continue to oscillate, with a long - term downward trend due to supply - surplus pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policy implementation and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [43][45]. - **LPG**: LPG prices are supported by supply - demand conditions and the external market, although the domestic LPG valuation is relatively high [47][48]. - **PTA - PX**: PX - PTA prices may fall back after the departure of speculation funds. It is recommended to consider building long positions on dips, with attention to maintenance plans and blending oil dynamics [49][53]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: MEG prices have a weakened downward drive, and it is recommended to sell call options. The long - term supply - surplus situation remains unchanged [55][57]. - **Urea**: Urea prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the downside space supported and the upside pressured [58][59]. - **PP**: PP prices are supported by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the PDH device operation status and basis changes [60][63]. - **PE**: PE prices are expected to continue to oscillate after a rebound. Attention should be paid to the spot situation and basis changes [64][65]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene prices are affected by device maintenance. Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [66][68]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking may rebound after the stabilization of Dar Blend discount [69][70]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices will maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with attention to winter storage policies [71][72]. - **Rubber & 20 - number Rubber**: Rubber and 20 - number rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly [73].

图片来源：中国外汇交易中心 上周（11月24日至28日）美元指数高位震荡后下挫，美国零售数据疲软强化市场对美联储降息预期，美元指数周内跌破100关口，全周累计下跌0.71%，11 月以来跌幅为0.29%。非美货币方面，因美元走势疲弱，欧元、英镑、日元、澳元兑美元均有所走高。其中，欧元兑美元连续五个交易日上涨，全周涨幅为 0.76。 新华财经上海12月1日电（葛佳明） 中国外汇交易中心公布数据显示，11月28日当周三大人民币汇率指数均下挫，CFETS人民币汇率指数报97.92，按周跌 0.3；BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数报104.47，按周跌0.19；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报92.46，按周跌0.14。 | 指数名称 | 当日指数 | | --- | --- | | CFETS人民币汇率指数 | 97.92 | | BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 104.47 | | SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 92.46 | 在中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛看来，今年，在国际经济形势不确定性增加的背景下，人民币不跌反涨，反映了中国经济回升向好、美元指数走弱等多重 因素的综合影响，预计上述因素仍将对未来人民币汇率走 ...