1. Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the polyolefin industry dated March 4, 2026 [1][2] 2. Team Introduction - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers for polyolefins, crude oil and fuel oil, PTA and MEG, pulp, and glass and soda ash [4] 3. Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2701 | 7100 | 7175 | 7178 | 7019 | 269 | 3.90 | 2208 | 250 | | Plastic 2605 | 7047 | 7200 | 7200 | 6976 | 407 | 5.99 | 436928 | -68551 | | Plastic 2609 | 7096 | 7183 | 7186 | 6995 | 307 | 4.46 | 102815 | 12703 | | PP2701 | 6974 | 7070 | 7107 | 6930 | 248 | 3.64 | 4260 | 318 | | PP2605 | 7037 | 7223 | 7223 | 7021 | 408 | 5.99 | 502966 | 4353 | | PP2609 | 7067 | 7169 | 7197 | 6972 | 322 | 4.70 | 134631 | 683 | [5] 4. Market Review and Outlook - L2605 opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and hit the daily limit at the end, closing at 7,200 yuan/ton, up 407 yuan/ton (5.99%), with a trading volume of 1.035 million lots and an open interest decrease of 68,468 lots to 437,011 lots. PP2605 closed at 7,223 yuan/ton, up 408 yuan, a 5.99% increase, with an open interest increase of 7,385 lots to 479,800 lots [6] - The current market trading core has shifted from its own fundamentals to the cost and sentiment logic driven by geopolitics, and the weight of fundamental factors has decreased temporarily [6] - The escalating situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the high crude oil prices will support the polyolefin market from the cost side. Coupled with the expected reduction in imports of raw materials such as methanol and propane and the unexpected device maintenance, polyolefin prices are expected to gain short - term upward momentum [6] - However, the reality of high inventory and weak demand has not changed. If the geopolitical premium drives prices higher, the upside space will be significantly restricted by the industrial reality. If the geopolitical conflict eases later, the market will focus on domestic supply - demand verification, and the downstream resumption progress, peak - season performance, and inventory reduction rhythm will become the dominant factors [6] - In the short term, geopolitical and emotional support is strong, and market fluctuations are amplified. It is recommended to wait and see or adopt a range - bound trading strategy, and be vigilant against the risk of price decline after a pulse - type market [6] 5. Industry News - On March 3, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 890,000 tons, a 10,000 - ton increase (1.14%) from the previous working day, compared with 845,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - PE market prices mostly rose. The LLDPE price in North China was 6,920 - 7,550 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,900 - 7,550 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,400 - 7,650 yuan/ton [7] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 6,620 - 6,660 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Affected by geopolitical factors, the cost of propylene was strongly supported. Coupled with the continuous rise of the futures market, market sentiment was boosted. Downstream factories were waiting to enter the market for procurement, and the demand support was relatively average. Producers' offers were stable with some increases, and some actual transactions had a small premium [7] 6. Data Overview - The report includes figures on L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][16][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may lead to oil production cuts by oil - producing countries, and aromatics have the potential for a catch - up rally [2]. - Crude oil is leading the chemical industry to maintain a strong and volatile pattern [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situation dominates oil prices, with a widening gap between domestic and foreign markets. In the short - term, the reduction of effective crude oil supply due to geopolitical tensions drives up oil prices. The outlook is oscillating and bullish [3][8]. - **Asphalt**: The geopolitical premium is being released. The absolute price of asphalt is in an over - valued range, and its medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline. The outlook is oscillating [3][9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The geopolitical premium of fuel oil has risen significantly due to the US - Iran conflict. In the long - term, the substitution of fuel oil power generation demand in the Middle East is a negative factor. The outlook is oscillating [3][9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has risen sharply following crude oil. Although it faces some negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, it has a low valuation and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil. The outlook is oscillating [3][11]. - **Methanol**: Driven by the geopolitical situation, it is oscillating and bullish. The market is trading the geopolitical premium, and there is still upward potential in the short - term [3][24]. - **Urea**: Supported by demand and guided by policies, it is oscillating and consolidating. Supply is stable at a high level, while demand from the agricultural sector is strong and industrial demand is recovering. The outlook is oscillating [3][25]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The futures price hit the daily limit, with cost and supply - demand factors resonating. In the short - term, it may maintain a strong performance. The outlook is oscillating and bullish in the short - term [3][19]. - **PX**: Some PX plants have reduced their loads preventively, with cost and supply - demand factors in resonance. In the short - term, the fundamentals are slightly bullish. The outlook is oscillating and bullish in the short - term [3][13]. - **PTA**: Supported by the strong upstream cost, the center of gravity has shifted upward. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and bullish trend in the short - term [3][14]. - **Short - Fiber**: Significantly supported by cost, but the market shows a fear - of - high - prices mentality. It is expected to follow the upstream trend and maintain an oscillating and bullish trend in the short - term [3][20]. - **Bottle Chips**: The sharp rise in crude oil and upstream raw materials has driven the recovery of downstream trading sentiment. The absolute price follows the raw materials, and the support for processing margins has increased [3][22]. - **Propylene (PL)**: Significantly boosted by the raw material end, it is oscillating and bullish in the short - term [3][31]. - **PP**: Boosted by crude oil, methanol, and propane at the raw material end, it is oscillating and bullish in the short - term [3][30]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, it continues to strengthen. The outlook is oscillating and bullish in the short - term [3][29]. - **Styrene**: Affected by device maintenance and crude oil fluctuations, it is oscillating and bullish [3][17]. - **PVC**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances, it is cautiously optimistic. The outlook is oscillating and bullish, but it should be vigilant against the weakening of the market when the geopolitical conflict eases [3][34]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by supply expectations, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. The outlook is oscillating [3][36]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring 2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data on inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest values and changes [39]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Data on inter - variety spreads of different varieties and different contract months are provided, including the latest values and changes [40]. 2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific summarized data is provided in the given text, but the monitoring of multiple varieties such as methanol, urea, etc. is mentioned. 3. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, special index, and sector index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index on March 3, 2026, are presented, along with their corresponding changes [280][282].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2024 202-6/03/0 10-094 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 Read more English reports on CITIC Futures Insights: https://www.citicfutures.com/Insights 摘要 Abstract News: Wang Yi speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi by phone. (Xinhua). ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is mentioned in the report. 2. Report's Core View Geopolitical disturbances continue to affect the agricultural market, leading to significant fluctuations in the prices of various agricultural products. The market is characterized by a mix of long and short factors, with notable impacts from geopolitical events, policies, and supply - demand dynamics. Different agricultural products show diverse trends, including upward, downward, and sideways movements [5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Oils and Fats - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to show a sideways - to - upward trend. Although the supply of oilseeds is relatively sufficient, short - term positive sentiment from the US biodiesel policy is countered by factors such as weakening palm oil exports and a slowdown in the biodiesel policy. A strategy of buying at stage - low prices is recommended [5][6]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to high - level volatility in crude oil prices. US soybean oil is supported by rising crude oil prices and positive biodiesel policy expectations but faces potential high - level adjustments. Malaysian palm oil production decreased in February due to rain and floods, and exports weakened. However, production is expected to recover in March, limiting the rebound space. China has reduced the anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to become more abundant, with prices following the overall oil trend [5]. 3.2. Protein Meal - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to move sideways. After the Spring Festival, it is the off - season for consumption, with both supply and demand weak. The domestic market follows external market fluctuations and faces short - term adjustment pressure [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, geopolitical conflicts and biofuel policies have pushed up US soybean prices, and the net long position of US soybean funds has reached the highest level in the same period since 2019. Domestically, the spot market is weak, and the supply of imported soybeans is abundant, suppressing the rebound of the futures market. The inventory of oil mills is at a high level, and the downstream demand lacks growth momentum [7]. 3.3. Corn - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to move sideways - to - upward. In the short term, after the Lantern Festival and with the expected warming of the weather, wet corn is expected to be gradually sold, and the increase in spot prices may narrow. In the medium term, based on the tight annual balance sheet, corn is generally bullish [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic corn market is strong, supported by limited remaining grain at the grassroots level, farmers' reluctance to sell, and downstream replenishment demand. After the Spring Festival, snow in some areas has reduced the pressure on grain storage, and wet corn is expected to be sold gradually. Downstream enterprises have a demand for replenishment, and the price has increased slightly. However, imported grains may suppress the price in the southern sales area [10]. 3.4. Pigs - **Outlook**: Pigs are expected to move sideways - to - downward. After the Spring Festival, it is the off - season for consumption, and the supply of pigs remains excessive. In the long term, if the production capacity reduction in the second half of 2025 is realized, the pig cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The government plans to purchase 10,000 tons of pork on March 4. In the short term, some second - fattening has entered the market. In the medium term, the supply of pigs is still abundant. In the long term, the reduction in sow inventory in the second half of 2025 may lead to a reduction in the supply pressure in the second half of 2026 [12]. 3.5. Natural Rubber - **Outlook**: The market is expected to move sideways. The fundamental variables are limited, and the market sentiment is weak in the short term, but the downward adjustment range is expected to be limited [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The price of natural rubber rose rapidly and then fell sharply. Geopolitical events in the Middle East have little impact on supply but negatively affect downstream tire orders. The market sentiment is weak, and there are few positive fundamental factors. However, due to the approaching low - production season and stable downstream demand, the price is likely to be more likely to rise than fall [14]. 3.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Outlook**: The market is expected to remain strong in the short term, mainly following the sector sentiment [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical events in the Middle East have led to a continuous increase in crude oil prices, boosting the synthetic rubber market. The spot price of butadiene has also risen, providing upward momentum. The mid - term core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026 [15]. 3.7. Cotton - **Outlook**: Cotton is expected to move sideways - to - upward. In the long - term, the price is expected to rise, and the strategy of buying on dips is recommended [16]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, after the Spring Festival, the positive factors have been digested, and there is a lack of new driving forces, so the price is in a sideways adjustment. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance, and the expected reduction in the planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 will drive up the price. However, the increase in imported yarn may affect the final inventory. The international market is currently loose but is expected to tighten in the next season [16]. 3.8. Sugar - **Outlook**: Sugar is expected to move sideways - to - downward. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under downward pressure. In the short term, affected by the Middle East conflict, the price may have a small - scale rebound [18]. - **Market Analysis**: In the 25/26 sugar - making season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. Although there are some positive factors, it is difficult to reverse the supply - surplus pattern. The Middle East conflict has pushed up the crude oil price, which may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil and then affect the sugar supply [18]. 3.9. Pulp - **Outlook**: Pulp is expected to move sideways. The expectation of improved demand in the future is positive, but the flat supply quotation is negative, and the price will remain in a wide - range sideways movement [20]. - **Market Analysis**: The pulp futures market is weak due to the weak performance of the financial market. The demand in the industrial chain is still in the recovery stage, and the post - festival replenishment momentum is average. However, the demand is expected to improve seasonally in the future. The supply quotation has both positive and negative factors, and the exchange - rate appreciation is negative for the domestic price [20]. 3.10. Double - Glued Paper - **Outlook**: Double - glued paper is expected to move sideways. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the price is expected to rise first and then fall from March to May [22]. - **Market Analysis**: The spot market of double - glued paper is in a wait - and - see state, and some paper mills are calling for price increases, but the demand is weak. In March and April, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the price is expected to rise. In May, due to the influence of publishing tenders and weak social orders, the price may fall [22]. 3.11. Logs - **Outlook**: Logs are expected to move sideways. In the short term, the spot price increase provides strong support, but there is a lack of upward driving force. In the medium term, the market may face inventory pressure after the peak season [23]. - **Market Analysis**: The spot price of logs has increased due to low inventory in Shandong and the release of post - festival demand. The overseas market price has bottomed out and stabilized, and the valuation has increased. However, after the peak season in the first - quarter mid - term, the inventory may increase again, and the price will face pressure [23]. 3.12. Commodity Index - On March 3, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed an upward trend. The special index, including the commodity 20 index and the industrial products index, also increased. The agricultural product index increased by 0.32% on the day, 0.42% in the past 5 days, 0.17% in the past month, and 1.57% since the beginning of the year [184][186].

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the need for a strategic asset allocation framework in response to the accelerating global order reconstruction and deteriorating geopolitical situation, highlighting safety as a scarce resource and gold as a tangible means to combat uncertainty. It recommends overweighting AH stocks, gold, crude oil, and industrial commodities in March [1]. Group 1: Equity Allocation - The recommended equity allocation weight for March 2026 is 45.00%, with an overweight in A-shares (10.00%) and H-shares (10.00%), while maintaining standard weights for US stocks (15.00%), European stocks (5.00%), and Japanese stocks (5.00%). Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, including expected expansion of the broad deficit and more proactive economic policies [2]. Group 2: Bond Allocation - The suggested bond allocation weight for March 2026 is 35.00%, including long-term government bonds (7.50%), short-term government bonds (7.50%), long-term US Treasuries (10.00%), and short-term US Treasuries (10.00%). Structural monetary policy is expected to strengthen the allocation to government bonds, with a trend of rising risk appetite and potential for enhanced debt purchasing willingness [3]. Group 3: Commodity Allocation - The recommended commodity allocation weight for March 2026 is 20.00%, with an overweight in gold (10.00%), crude oil (5.00%), and industrial commodities (5.00%). The report suggests that the accelerating global order reconstruction warrants an overweight in gold as a safeguard against uncertainty, while the deteriorating geopolitical situation in the Middle East supports an overweight in crude oil [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market's trading logic is diverging, with resource endowment and strategic attributes being re - priced, and China's market purchasing power and seasonal restocking rhythm being key factors. The copper price is supported by tight supply at the mine end but is pressured by high inventory [2]. - The aluminum market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger due to concerns about supply contraction from the US - Iran war. The supply and demand situation is complex, with increasing domestic production capacity and high inventory [2]. - The zinc market is under pressure from inventory accumulation, and the export expectation restricts the rebound space. The supply - demand imbalance is expected to continue, and short - term consolidation is likely [2]. - The lead market is in a low - level oscillation pattern. Although there is an expectation of inventory reduction after the Lantern Festival, the rebound space is limited due to external excess pressure [2]. - The nickel market lacks independent drivers and rebounds following the external situation. The market is waiting and seeing [2]. - The tin market has a strong performance in the equity market, but the physical supply - demand situation is weak. The price may face resistance at the previous high, and tin stocks may be positively affected [2]. - The lithium carbonate market has a volatile futures price, and the short - term uncertainty is high. The overall inventory is decreasing, but the inventory structure has changed [2]. - The industrial silicon market is under pressure due to weak demand, high inventory, and expected production resumption. It may maintain a low - level oscillation [2]. - The polysilicon market has weak spot trading, and the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market**: Before and after the Spring Festival, the copper market was relatively quiet and oscillating. After the festival, the trading center of Shanghai copper rose. The market is affected by factors such as Trump's tariff ruling and the US - Iran military conflict [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The copper concentrate processing fee is in the negative range, and the supply at the mine end is tight. However, the global visible inventory is at a high level, which may suppress the copper price [2]. - **Trend**: The copper price may test the long - term moving average support due to high inventory, despite the support from the moving average dense area [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity has decreased, and the oversupply situation has improved slightly, but the fundamental driving force is limited [2]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has increased, and some overseas plants have production changes such as shutdown and restart [2]. - **Demand**: Processing enterprises are gradually resuming work, and the domestic apparent consumption has a negative year - on - year growth at the beginning of the year [2]. - **Inventory and Spot**: The inventory has increased significantly after the Spring Festival, and the spot is at a discount. The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger this week [2]. Zinc - **Trend**: The internal and external trends were different last week, and the short - term is in an interval oscillation. The export expectation restricts the rebound space, and the supply - demand imbalance is expected to continue [2]. - **Spot and Supply**: The LME zinc inventory has decreased, and the domestic factory output has decreased. The domestic mine is resuming production, and the TC of domestic and imported mines has changed [2]. - **Consumption**: The downstream resumption of work is slow, and it is expected to fully resume work after the Lantern Festival. The inventory reduction rhythm needs to be tracked [2]. Lead - **Market**: Both the internal and external markets are in a low - level oscillation under the dominance of oversupply. The domestic market is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, and the direction is not clear [2]. - **Spot and Supply**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the import window is open. The domestic mine is resuming production, and the TC is expected to be stable at a low level. The supply pressure is not large [2]. - **Consumption**: The battery enterprises' resumption of work is slow, and it is expected to increase procurement after the Lantern Festival. The inventory reduction needs to be tracked [2]. - **Trend**: The lead price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the price range is 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [2]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Futures**: Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures rebounded last week, with reduced trading volume and increased positions [2]. - **Macro and Demand**: The Iran issue boosts market sentiment, and there is an optimistic expectation for demand recovery. Downstream stainless steel plants are resuming work and digesting inventory [2]. - **Spot and Supply**: The spot price has different premiums and discounts, and the inventory of nickel and stainless steel has increased [2]. - **Trend**: The nickel market lacks independent drivers and rebounds following the external situation [2]. Tin - **Market**: The tin price has a large two - way fluctuation, and the technical form has become stronger again. The rise is mainly driven by the excellent performance of the domestic equity market [2]. - **Supply**: Myanmar's tin production is resuming, and Indonesia's export policy is expected to be stable [2]. - **Consumption**: The domestic downstream resumption of work is accelerating, but it is difficult to digest the high tin price. The inventory has increased [2]. - **Trend**: The tin price may face resistance at the previous high, and tin stocks may be positively affected [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures**: The lithium carbonate futures rebounded last week, with active trading and a fragile position structure [2]. - **Spot**: The spot price has increased, but the overall trading is light due to the wait - and - see attitude of the upstream and downstream [2]. - **Macro and Demand**: The Iran issue boosts market sentiment, but the annual sales performance is poor, and the power battery orders may decline [2]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory has decreased, but the inventory structure has changed, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down [2]. - **Trend**: The short - term uncertainty of the lithium carbonate futures price is high [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The silicon price is weakly sorted, and enterprises are mainly waiting and seeing [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The raw materials are stable, the production in Xinjiang is expected to increase, but the downstream demand is weak [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has increased, and the factory inventory in Yunnan and Xinjiang has also increased [2]. - **Trend**: The market may maintain a low - level oscillation due to weak demand, production resumption expectation, and high inventory pressure [2]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The polysilicon futures are weakly declining, and the spot trading is light [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production in February decreased, and the production in March is expected to increase slightly. The downstream demand support is limited [2]. - **Trend**: The price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [2].

证券研究报告｜资产配置跟踪周报 2026 年 3 月 3 日 在不确定性中追求确定性 【20260223-20260301】 核心观点 大类资产总览：权益市场持续升温，债市短期遇冷。 节后，进入 2 月最后一周交易日，权益市场仍旧显示出过年 应有的一派"其乐融融"之感，量价齐升下，投资体感较之 前有了明显提升。在全球地缘冲突不断、经济预期未知下， 外部市场不确定性持续提升，变数丛生。而与之相对，中国 市场环境的确定性使得中国资产成为全球更为稀缺的投资 资源，人民币的持续升值与美元的不断走弱，使得中国权益 市场得以吸纳更多外围国际资金，且中国宏观政策的一致性 取向也为投资者带来了更稳定的宏观预期，进而使得市场在 节后，外部环境纷乱的情况下，反而整体呈现出韧性较强， 持续回升的情况。而债市则在遭受权益市场和商品市场持续 吸金的压力后，短期回落。一方面，节后在获取到相对满意 的"过节资金"后，面对外部的火热，留存在债市的风险资 金蠢蠢欲动，持续外流；另一方面，宏观经济尤其是地产层 面出现的企稳迹象，促使更多防御资金转向，主动离开债市 以求博取更大收益。双重作用下，债市短期出现回落情况。 商品市场本周再度震荡向上。快 ...

Group 1 - The article does not provide any relevant information regarding the company or industry [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Carbonate Lithium, Fuel Oil, LPG, PTA, 2-Butene [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum, Palladium, Industrial Silicon, Threaded Steel, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Vegetable Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, White Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Coniferous Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Bitumen, BR Rubber, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, PVC, Caustic Soda, Container Shipping on the European Line [1] - **Wait-and-See**: Polysilicon, Threaded Steel, Hot Rolled Coil [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East conflict. If the conflict ends quickly, the market sentiment will recover rapidly after the shock adjustment of the stock index, and an upward trend will be opened. The approaching of China's "Two Sessions" provides support for the stock index. If the Middle East situation does not deteriorate further, the short - term adjustment of the stock index will bring a good long - position layout opportunity [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest - rate risks in the short term, and attention should be paid to the interest - rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. - Overseas macro factors are favorable for copper prices, but the continuous accumulation of global copper inventories suppresses prices. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is disturbed, and the domestic alumina production capacity is decreasing, but the inventory is increasing. The supply of zinc ore from Iran is a concern, and the supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is tight. The prices of these metals are expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - Geopolitical conflicts support the prices of precious metals, but rising oil prices increase inflation risks and weaken the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Once the geopolitical situation eases, precious metal prices may decline. Platinum and palladium are expected to enter a range - bound oscillation after rising [1]. - For industrial silicon, the production in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December is decreasing. The demand for carbonate lithium is strong, but the spot market has not fully recovered [1]. - The black - metal market is in a slack season before the "Two Sessions", and the market is looking forward to the peak season after the "Two Sessions". In the long term, the market is pessimistic about coking coal 05 [1]. - The rise in crude oil prices is expected to drive up vegetable oil prices in the short term, but the supply of raw materials may increase in the medium term [1]. - The cotton market is currently supported but lacks driving forces. The global white - sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The corn market is supported by replenishment demand but needs to be cautious about high - price feedback. The soybean - meal market is expected to oscillate within a range [1]. - The prices of fuel oil and LPG are affected by the Middle East situation. The prices of various energy - chemical products are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [1]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term oscillation adjustment space is limited. If the Middle East situation does not worsen, the short - term adjustment brings a long - position layout opportunity [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but there are short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Overseas macro factors are favorable, but inventory accumulation suppresses prices, and short - term oscillation is expected [1]. - **Aluminum**: Supply is disturbed, and the price oscillates [1]. - **Alumina**: Domestic production capacity is decreasing, but inventory is increasing, and short - term oscillation is expected [1]. - **Zinc**: The supply of Iranian zinc ore is a concern, which may boost the price in the short term. Attention should be paid to downstream resumption of work after the festival [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply in Indonesia is tight, and the price may oscillate at a high level in the short term. In the long term, high global inventory may have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to go long at low prices [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Raw material prices have risen after the festival, and the supply side in Indonesia is frequently disturbed. The futures price oscillates strongly. Attention should be paid to post - festival demand recovery, and it is recommended to go long in the short term [1]. - **Tin**: The Middle East situation is favorable, and the price is expected to continue to strengthen. Attention should be paid to risk management in the short - term high - volatility situation [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical conflicts support prices, but rising oil prices increase inflation risks. Once the situation eases, prices may decline. Short - term oscillation is expected [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical factors are favorable, but the strong US dollar and mixed fundamentals lead to a range - bound oscillation after the price increase [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production in the northwest is increasing, while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December is decreasing [1]. - **Polysilicon**: It is recommended to wait and see due to liquidity risks [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Demand is strong, but the spot market has not fully recovered. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Threaded Steel and Hot Rolled Coil**: The spot market has not fully recovered. It is recommended to wait and see, and look for profit - taking opportunities for the basis positions [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is obvious upward pressure, and it is not recommended to chase the rise [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Short - term supply and demand are weak, but policy support and cost factors are favorable [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Short - term supply and demand are weak, and the supply is expected to decrease. Soda ash follows glass, and the medium - term supply is more abundant, putting pressure on prices [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is in a slack season before the "Two Sessions", and the market is looking forward to the peak season after the "Two Sessions". In the long term, the market is pessimistic about coking coal 05. It is recommended to establish long - short arbitrage positions [1]. Agricultural Products - **Vegetable Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The rise in crude oil prices is expected to drive up prices in the short term, but the supply of raw materials may increase in the medium term. It is recommended to be bullish in the short term and wait and see in the medium term [1]. - **Cotton**: The market is supported but lacks driving forces. Attention should be paid to relevant policies, planting intentions, and seasonal demand [1]. - **White Sugar**: The global market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to the capital situation [1]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure is limited, and the demand for replenishment supports the price, but attention should be paid to the negative feedback of high prices [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The market has rebounded, but the rebound is limited under the pressure of large global supply. It is expected to oscillate within a range [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: It is expected to oscillate between 5200 - 5400 in the short term, and attention should be paid to post - festival port inventory [1]. - **Logs**: The spot price has risen, and the arrival volume in February has decreased. The price has an upward driving force [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price is stable, and the production capacity needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the market sentiment is bullish [1]. - **Bitumen**: The cost is supported, the market sentiment is positive, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering [1]. - **BR Rubber**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the short - term price is expected to oscillate widely, and there is an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PTA**: The supply is expected to tighten in the future, and the price is expected to rise [1]. - **2 - Butene**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price is expected to rise [1]. - **Styrene**: The production economy is stable, and the demand is expected to recover gradually [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased, and the upward space is limited, but there is support at the bottom [1]. - **Methanol**: The import is expected to decrease, but the downstream feedback is obvious, and the situation is mixed [1]. - **PVC**: The future is expected to be optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are weak, but the price has a small increase [1]. - **LPG**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price is strong, but the demand is short - term bearish, and the internal and external markets show different trends [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The price increase is generally stable, and shipping companies are cautious about resuming flights. They have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rise in crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions has pushed up the PTA market, and downstream polyester factories have actively raised prices. The average sales volume of polyester filament factories as of 3:00 pm is around 112.22%. [3] - The Asian PX market's speculative sentiment has rebounded, but the physical supply is stable. Although some PTA device loads are expected to be shut down for maintenance in March to May, the physical supply of PX is sufficient. [3] - The demand side remains calm, downstream replenishment is not active, and the polyester's operating load is lower than expected. [3] - The Middle East geopolitical tensions may bring short - term energy price volatility risks. [3] - The ethylene - naphtha spread has shrunk, and the ethylene production situation in some regions is changing. The price of ethylene glycol is waiting at a low level, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Iranian situation on prices. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 488.4 yuan/barrel on February 27, 2026, to 527.8 yuan/barrel on March 2, 2026, an increase of 39.4 yuan/barrel. [3] - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased from 1700.7 yuan/ton to 1716.4 yuan/ton; PTA/SC decreased from 1.4792 to 1.4475; PTA's main futures price rose from 5250 yuan/ton to 5552 yuan/ton; the spot price rose from 5155 yuan/ton to 5375 yuan/ton; the spot processing fee decreased from 289.0 yuan/ton to 153.2 yuan/ton; the disk processing fee decreased from 379.0 yuan/ton to 330.2 yuan/ton; the main basis increased from - 60 to - 55; the number of PTA warehouse receipts decreased from 126604 to 125134. [3] - **PX**: CFR China PX rose from 932 to 999; the PX - naphtha spread increased from 295 to 362. [3] - **MEG**: MEG's main futures price rose from 3703 yuan/ton to 3925 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from - 218.67 yuan/ton to - 188.67 yuan/ton; MEG's domestic price rose from 3621 to 3753; the main basis increased from - 95 to - 92. [3] - **Polyester Products**: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, DTY150D/48F, 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber, and semi - bright chips all increased, while the cash flows of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, and chips all decreased. The sales volume of long - filament decreased from 120% to 112%, and the sales volume of short - fiber increased from 85% to 89%. The sales volume of chips decreased from 274% to 105%. [3] Industry Operating Rates - PX operating rate remained at 89.21%; PTA operating rate increased from 76.40% to 81.27%; MEG operating rate remained at 60.82%; polyester load increased from 77.21% to 78.23%. [3] Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China that was shut down for maintenance around February 10 has returned to normal operation. A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China that was operating at 50% capacity has returned to normal. A 1.25 - million - ton PTA device in South China that was shut down for maintenance in mid - January has returned to normal. [5]