早上好，来看一些重要资讯。 特朗普称希望与伊朗"能够达成协议" 伊朗外长：对与美国就核问题达成协议"仍然有信心" 据央视报道，伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐当地时间2月1日在接受媒体采访时表示，伊朗对与美国就 核问题达成协议"仍然有信心"。 阿拉格齐说，伊朗"对美国作为谈判伙伴已经失去信任"。不过，他表示，通过地区友好国家进行的信息 沟通正在推动双方接触，并称相关谈判"是富有成效的"，"对方在与我们对话，也在认真对待我们"。 在是否开展直接谈判的问题上，阿拉格齐拒绝作出承诺，强调应将重点放在"谈判的实质内容"而非形式 上，并表示"不必讨论不可能的事情"。他还重申，伊朗希望美方解除长期制裁，同时尊重伊朗在和平利 用核能框架下继续进行铀浓缩的权利。 阿拉格齐还表示，如果双方能够达成某种共识，消除误解和误判，不仅将为伊朗与美国之间的经济合作 创造重要机遇，也将有利于整个地区国家的发展。他强调，伊朗始终对与美国企业合作持开放态度。 据央视报道，当地时间2月1日，美国总统特朗普在海湖庄园回答记者有关伊朗问题时表示，希望"能够 达成协议"。 特朗普就伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊有关"美方若发动打击将引发地区战争"的警告作出回应，称 ...

【环球时报报道 记者 白云怡】地处北极圈内的格陵兰岛素来以寒冷、广袤、荒凉著称，这里超过80% 的土地被厚厚的冰层覆盖，长年被视为世界尽头的一片静默之地。然而，自2026年1月以来，随着美国 总统特朗普多次公开发出"接管格陵兰岛"的威胁，这座冰雪之岛被骤然推至全球政治风暴的中心。 《环球时报》记者近日独家连线包括政界人士、原住民等在内的多名当地居民，通过他们的讲述，能明 显感受到不同职业、不同背景的格陵兰人都对美国的行为抱有强烈反感，这或许将更长久地影响到这片 土地和欧美关系的未来。 欧洲有战争就回格陵兰岛？ " 我想把这句话吃掉 " 原住民代表：纳雅华克 · 黑格伦德 上午9点，格陵兰岛首府努克的天还没有亮，城市隐没在深蓝色的夜色中，冷风裹着细雪掠过街道。37 岁的因纽特人纳雅华克·黑格伦德坐在窗边，她语气平静，却几次重复着一个此前从未认真想过的问 题："如果美国真的来了，我们能做什么？" 一年前，这个问题在格陵兰岛还几乎是一个没人会当真的笑话。然而，过去几周以来，美国总统特朗普 反复公开表示要"得到格陵兰岛"，让一切都不再一样了。 黑格伦德此前曾长期生活在丹麦。每当在电视里看到战争或冲突爆发的国际新闻时， ...

多古1月31日抵达加拉加斯。1月22日，美国政府任命资深外交官多古为设在哥伦比亚首都波哥大的委内 瑞拉事务代表处临时代办。2019年1月，委内瑞拉与美国断交，美驻委使馆外交人员于当年3月全部撤 离。2019年8月，美国国务院在波哥大开设委内瑞拉事务代表处。 西班牙埃菲社2月1日报道说，美军强行控制委总统马杜罗及其妻子将满一个月。随着多古的到来，美国 与委内瑞拉的关系进入新阶段。美国总统特朗普此前称，美国将"管理"委内瑞拉直至实施"安全"过渡。 美国国务卿鲁比奥为委内瑞拉局势设定了路线图：第一阶段实现局势稳定，第二阶段推动国家复苏，第 三阶段是实现民主过渡。 【环球时报特约记者 王逸】据委内瑞拉《环球报》1月31日报道，委内瑞拉外交部长希尔当天表示，他 在首都加拉加斯接待美国外交使团团长劳拉·多古。他在社交媒体上透露，委美双方工作议程"旨在制定 共同关心事项的工作路线图"，并通过外交对话方式，在相互尊重和国际法的基础上，解决现有分歧。 特朗普1月31日告诉媒体，美国与委内瑞拉两国领导层的关系非常好，双方将"分享"石油收益。据英国 《卫报》报道，特朗普在1月29日的内阁会议上表示，他已"告知"委内瑞拉代总统罗德里 ...

1月31日，黄金市场像被人推下了悬崖，伦敦金一天之内蒸发了7.58%，国内黄金T D也跟着跌了 3.92%，连商场里的金饰都跟着打了个寒噤，这一幕，谁看了不心慌，不要说散户，连机构的交易员也 都做起了短暂的失忆症，没人敢第一时间宣称"老子看准了"，市场的气氛瞬间从自信变成惊恐，人人心 里都有条弦，被放开了——紧张到了极点。 这次下跌是技术性的割裂，还是情绪性的恐慌，是短线资金的集体出逃，还是宏观基本面的转折，大家 各执一词，媒体也不干脆，报道一会儿说是获利盘集中止盈，一会儿又把锅甩到美联储可能延缓降息 上，事实很简单，市场在高潮之后选择了群体退场，钱多了要找门，门一关，挤出来的就是溢价变现的 价格下跌。 市场有自己的逻辑，也有集体的情绪，先有一波疯涨，吸引了太多不该来的资金，积累了太多利润，接 着就是情绪性的出逃，放大器一样放大波动，外加美联储的后续言辞带来不确定性，信息落地的那一 刻，很多所谓的利好被"兑现"了，市场短线资金就说够了，走人吧，结果就是这次黑色星期五。 再说央行和大行的声音，高盛这些外资机构喊着金价会在3000美元一盎司，表面是预测，实际上也是一 种话语权的延展，高盛可以喊高价来吸引注意力，也 ...

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical factors have driven up oil prices, leading to a strong rise in oil funds and related stocks [1] Group 1: Oil Funds and Market Reactions - Four oil funds have collectively warned about premium risks, indicating that investors may face significant losses if they buy at high premiums [1] - The E Fund's crude oil LOF fund (code: 161129) showed a significant premium, with a net asset value of 1.1514 yuan on January 28, 2026, while the market closing price was 1.340 yuan [4] - Other funds, including those managed by GF Fund, Huaan Fund, and Harvest Fund, also reported substantial premiums and announced temporary suspensions of trading to alert investors [4] Group 2: Stock Performance - Tongyuan Petroleum (300164.SZ) emerged as the top-performing stock, achieving a weekly increase of over 63% and doubling its price since the beginning of the year, with a cumulative rise of over 133% [3] - The stock experienced abnormal trading fluctuations, with a cumulative price deviation exceeding 30% over three consecutive trading days [6] - The oil and gas extraction industry is closely linked to international crude oil prices and capital expenditures, with geopolitical tensions in regions like Venezuela and Iran contributing to supply risk concerns [6] Group 3: Industry Trends - The oil and petrochemical sector saw a nearly 8% increase in a week, with oil service engineering rising nearly 15% [6] - Recent reports indicate a significant increase in market sentiment towards oil, driven by geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, although no substantial fundamental improvements have been observed [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction affecting the LPG price trend lies in the cost - end crude oil market's volatile nature, the firmness of the external propane market, and the weakening of the domestic fundamentals. Although the fundamentals are marginally weakening, the market is pricing in the supply disruption risk due to the escalating US - Iran situation. In the short term, the US - Iran situation may fluctuate, leading to increased market volatility. The direction is still considered for long - positions, while also being aware of the upside risks [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end crude oil: In the medium to long term, crude oil is affected by both the oversupply fundamentals and geopolitical factors. In the short term, with relatively stable fundamentals, geopolitics dominates. This week, the crude oil price generally increased. Continuous attention should be paid to OPEC policies and the development of the US - Iran situation [1]. - External propane: The external propane market is oscillating strongly, with FEI stronger than CP. The shipping volume in the Middle East remains low. The February CP monthly price for propane is $545/ton (+20), and for butane is $540/ton (+20). In the US, supply declined this week due to the cold wave, and inventory continued to decrease, but the absolute inventory level is still high. With the strengthening of the swap price, the premium has weakened [1]. - Domestic fundamentals: The supply this week continued to be low, with low arrival volumes and continuous decline in port inventory and refinery product volumes. The demand side weakened significantly, and the PDH operating rate dropped to 60% due to the maintenance of several plants [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Market positioning**: The market is expected to be in a range - bound state, with the PG03 price range from 3,800 to 4,500 yuan/ton. - **Basis strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach as the market fluctuates greatly due to geopolitical uncertainties. This week, the spot price was weak due to refinery sales, while the futures price oscillated upwards driven by overseas factors, causing the basis to shrink. Currently, the PG03 contract has priced in a large amount of geopolitical premium [15]. - **Calendar spread strategy**: Consider reverse arbitrage at high prices. The PG03 contract is the forced cancellation month, and with a relatively small short - term warehouse receipt volume, reverse arbitrage can be carried out at high prices [16]. - **Hedging and arbitrage strategy**: Narrow the internal - external price spread [16]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **LPG price range prediction**: The predicted monthly price range for LPG is from 3,800 to 4,500 yuan/ton, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 21.97% and the 3 - year historical percentage of the current volatility at 36.22% [17]. - **Hedging strategy**: - **Inventory management**: For enterprises with excessive inventory worried about price drops, they can short PG futures according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and offset production costs. For example, short PG2603 with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 4,400 - 4,500 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options to collect premiums to reduce costs and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [17][19]. - **Procurement management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy PG futures at low prices on the futures market to lock in procurement costs. For instance, buy PG2603 with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 3,800 - 3,900 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options to collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price falls [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The US - Iran situation has continued to escalate. The US is considering military strikes against Iran, and Iran has announced plans to hold live - fire naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday and Monday [19]. - **Negative information**: PDH maintenance increased this week. Several plants such as Jinneng (900,000 tons), Wanhua (900,000 tons), Juzhengyuan (600,000 tons), and Zhongjing (1,000,000 tons) were under maintenance, causing a significant decline in the operating rate [20]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - On February 6, the US January employment data will be released. - Pay attention to the risk of the US government shutting down again. - Monitor the development of the US - Iran situation [25]. 3.3 Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: - **Unilateral trend and capital flow**: This week, the PG03 contract generally oscillated upwards. The net positions of the main profitable seats decreased; the top five long positions in the dragon - tiger list increased significantly, while the top five short positions showed no significant change; the net short positions of the dominant seats decreased slightly; the net long positions of foreign capital and retail investors decreased slightly. - **Technical analysis**: The PG03 contract found support at the daily - line middle - rail last week and continued to rise this week. It is currently near the previous high. Technically, it is still advisable to go long on dips [22]. - **Basis and calendar spread structure**: The LPG inter - month structure remained in a BACK structure this week, with the 3 - 4 calendar spread at - 294 yuan/ton [27]. - **External market**: - **Unilateral trend**: FEI M1 closed at $573/ton (+21.75), with a premium of $19.25/ton; CP M1 closed at $546/ton (+7.38), with a CP premium of - $15/ton; MB M1 closed at $336/ton (- 6.5). The FEI quotation remained active, and freight rates also increased, with prices rising this week. - **Calendar spread structure**: This week, the FEI M1 - M2 spread was $31.69/ton; the CP M1 - M2 spread was $9.37/ton; the MB M1 - M2 spread was - $11.50/ton. The near - month MB was weak due to the impact of the cold wave on exports and market wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage spreads, causing the calendar spread to weaken [41]. - **Regional spread tracking**: This week, the FEI - MB spread strengthened significantly. The FEI buying quotes remained active, and freight rates increased, while the MB was generally weak due to the wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage [43]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - **Upstream profit**: The gross profit of major refineries this week was 660 yuan/ton (- 102), and the gross profit of Shandong local refineries was 166 yuan/ton (- 88). Refinery profits continued to shrink this week [46]. - **Downstream profit**: The PDH profit with FEI as the cost was - 228 yuan/ton, and the PDH profit with CP as the cost was - 353 yuan/ton, remaining in a loss state. The MTBE gas - separation profit was - 39.25 yuan/ton, the isomerization profit was - 3.67 yuan/ton, and the alkylated oil profit was - 206 yuan/ton. Profits fluctuated slightly [48]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking This week, the import profit weakened, especially the FEI import profit in South China, mainly affected by the strengthening of the FEI price [52]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Overseas Supply and Demand - **US supply and demand**: - **EIA weekly supply and demand**: According to last week's data, production decreased slightly, demand changed little, exports increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline, but the overall inventory level remained high [56]. - **KPLER export situation**: In 2025, the US exported a total of 68,283 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.52%. Among them, exports to China were 10,187 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 43%. In January 2026, the US exported a total of 6,158 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 5.24%. Weekly shipments were not significantly affected by the cold wave [62]. - **Middle East supply**: In 2025, the Middle East exported a total of 48,463 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.43%. Among them, exports to India were 21,171 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 1.29%; exports to China were 17,905 kt, a year - on - year increase of 25.21%. In January 2026, the Middle East exported 4,043 kt of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 0.41%. Weekly shipping volume in the Middle East has remained low in recent weeks [66]. - **India supply and demand**: From January to December, India's total LPG demand was 331,774 kt, a year - on - year increase of 6.67%. In 2025, LPG imports were 23,229 kt, a year - on - year increase of 8.12%. In January 2026, India imported 2,204 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 23.68% [69]. - **South Korea supply and demand**: South Korea's LPG demand shows little seasonality as most is used for the chemical industry. In 2025, South Korea imported a total of 8,434 kt of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 2.56%. In January 2026, South Korea imported 762 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 13.32%. Since the fourth quarter, the cracking economy of LPG relative to naphtha has been poor [77]. - **Japan supply and demand**: Japan is highly dependent on LPG imports, and its demand and imports are highly seasonal due to a large proportion of combustion demand. In January 2026, Japan imported 1,004 kt of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%, and its LPG inventory reached a new low compared to the same period [80]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Domestic supply - demand balance**: - **Supply**: With relatively high refinery profits, the domestic LPG production is expected to remain at a high level, but the overall external release volume is not high. Import volume is also expected to be low based on shipping data [83]. - **Demand**: Based on profit and seasonal factors, chemical demand is decreasing, while combustion demand is increasing. In the first quarter, chemical demand is expected to weaken marginally due to PDH maintenance [83]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is decreasing, mainly at the port [83]. - **Domestic supply**: The operating rate of major refineries is 80.02% (+1.24%); the operating rate of independent refineries is 53.60% (0%), and the utilization rate excluding large - scale refineries is 49.42% (0%). The domestic LPG external sales volume is 54.31 tons (+1.02), and the arrival volume is 49.5 tons (+0.9). In terms of inventory, the refinery storage capacity utilization rate is 24.60% (+0.24%), and the port inventory is 187.6 tons (- 12.08) [87]. - **Domestic demand**: - **PDH demand**: Several plants such as Jinneng, Wanhua, Zhongjing, and Juzhengyuan are under maintenance [97]. - **MTBE demand**: There were no plant changes this week, and the internal - external price spread was oscillating [100]. - **Alkylated oil demand**: This week, Jingmen Yuchu was under maintenance until the end of January, and Puyang Zhongwei started new maintenance [107]. - **Combustion demand**: No specific data or trends were mentioned other than relevant seasonal charts [109].

Core Insights - The market experienced extreme volatility this week, with Microsoft facing its second-largest single-day market value loss and SAP dropping 16% [1][2] - Silver saw a dramatic 30% drop in a single day, reflecting extreme volatility in the precious metals market [4][5] - Despite these fluctuations, key market drivers such as the dollar's performance, AI investment enthusiasm, strong U.S. economic growth, and geopolitical shifts remain unchanged [1][7][9] Market Performance - Microsoft’s stock fell by 10%, resulting in a record nominal trading volume, while SAP's stock plummeted by 16% with similarly high trading activity [2] - In contrast, Meta and Verizon saw significant gains, with increases of 10% and 11% respectively [2] Precious Metals Volatility - Silver's volatility surged to levels not seen since the darkest days of the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 lockdowns, driven by leverage, retail enthusiasm, and momentum chasing [4][5] - The SLV ETF trading volume exceeded $32 billion, and the GLD ETF recorded over $30 billion in trading volume for two consecutive days [4] Investor Positioning - Investor positioning has reached extreme levels, with total exposure at the 99th percentile, indicating overcrowding in holdings [1][10] - The semiconductor sector now represents 12% of hedge fund net risk exposure, up from just 1% two years ago, while the software sector has decreased from 18% to 3% [10] Economic and Geopolitical Context - The ongoing trends in the market reflect a strong U.S. economic growth momentum and a reordering of geopolitical priorities, particularly in defense and supply chains [9] - The dollar's performance continues to be a critical variable, with implications for monetary policy under the new Federal Reserve chair [7][11] Key Themes and Predictions - The narrative around AI may be shifting, with a more stringent identification of beneficiaries expected as the initial excitement wanes [11] - Hard assets, particularly copper, are gaining importance in investment portfolios due to infrastructure demand trends [12] - European equities face challenges, with current pricing reflecting a bleak outlook for the macroeconomic environment [13] - The potential for a stock market bubble remains a critical question for investors [14]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 03 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 CONTENTS 01 观点小结 上游观点汇总 瓶片：震荡偏弱 2 02 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：高位震荡，控制仓位 供应 短纤工厂开始集中检修，平均负荷降低至85.3%，低熔点及中空短纤方面减停力度较大，棉型相对较小。 需求 终端开工率加速下行，以农历时间对比略早于往年。在原料快速上涨过程中，纱线、坯布价格跟涨不及，下游一方面担心年后价格上涨，另一 方面受制于利润，小幅补年前的库存为主。纱线、坯布环节的成品库存下降。出口订单环比好转，主要由于当前至美国的关税较东南亚无显著 劣势。短纤库存低位， ...

市场在本周创下多项极端纪录，微软遭遇史上第二大单日市值损失，SAP暴跌16%，白银单日重挫30%…… 高盛交易部门负责人Mark Wilson表示，尽管市场近期出现剧烈波动，但投资者不应过度解读这场"持仓清洗"，因为 年初至今推动市场的核心驱动因素并未发 生实质性改变。 Wilson在周度报告中指出，评估此次调整的严重程度时， 应将其与1月以来的涨幅相提并论。 他强调，美元走势延续、AI投资热情不减、美国经济增长势头强 劲以及地缘政治重塑等关键变量均未改变。年初至今的市场表现依然反映这些核心趋势——稀土涨35%，核能股涨21%，欧洲防务涨20%。 这场调整的直接诱因是投资者持仓过度拥挤。 总敞口已处于99百分位数的极端水平，系统化量化策略的表现显示拥挤度成为突出问题。Wilson认为，此次快速 回调更多是技术性调整，而非基本面逻辑的转变。 市场本周的波动幅度令人瞠目。 微软单日下跌10%，遭遇史上第二大市值损失，但同时创下有史以来最高的名义成交额。SAP暴跌16%，同样伴随创纪录的交易量。涨幅方面同样惊人，Meta 上涨10%，Verizon飙升11%。 贵金属市场的波动更为极端。白银单日暴跌30%，SLV ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide the industry investment rating [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US interest rate cut cycle is not over. After the current risk factors are released, the US Treasury market may return to the downward trend of yields [2][4][15] - China's bond market also needs to pay attention to the performance of technology stocks. Whether the performance growth of technology stocks can support their valuations will have an important impact on the bond market through factors such as stock - bond linkage and the flow of household savings [4][15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - Some important risk factors in the US Treasury market in the first quarter are gradually becoming clear. The next Fed chair nominee, tariff case alternatives, the Cook case, geopolitical factors, and technology stock performance are the main observation points [4][12][13] - The performance of technology stocks in the US may continue to drive economic growth, but has limited impact on overall employment, which in turn affects inflation through the salary channel [4][15] - In the week of January 30th, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.89% week - on - week, the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables decreased by 0.74% week - on - week, and the edible agricultural products price index increased by 0.90% week - on - week in the week of January 23rd [4][19] - In the week of January 30th, the domestic cement price index decreased by 1.03% week - on - week, the Nanhua iron ore index decreased by 0.09% week - on - week on average, the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons increased by 0.26% week - on - week, the rebar inventory index increased by 7.73% week - on - week, the rebar price index decreased by 0.18% week - on - week, and the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills increased by 0.46% week - on - week. The producer price index decreased by 0.40% week - on - week in the week of January 23rd [4][19] - In the week of January 30th, the average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased by 5.84% and 5.38% week - on - week respectively. The average price of LME copper spot increased by 2.90% week - on - week, the average price of aluminum spot increased by 2.32% week - on - week, and the copper - gold ratio decreased by 4.21% week - on - week [4][19] High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The document shows multiple charts comparing high - frequency data with important macroeconomic indicators, such as the year - on - year change of the RJ/CRB price index and the year - on - year change of export volume, the year - on - year change of the producer price index and the year - on - year change of PPI for industrial products [25][27][30] Important High - frequency Indicators in the US, Europe and Japan - The document shows charts of the US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rate, the number of initial jobless claims and the unemployment rate in the US, the same - store sales growth rate and PCE year - on - year in the US, and the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts by the central banks of Japan and the Eurozone in the derivatives market [90][94][96] Seasonal Trend of High - frequency Data - The document shows the seasonal trends (in terms of month - on - month increase) of various high - frequency data, including the average daily output of crude steel (decadal), producer price index, steel price index of rebar, and the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills [102][106][110] High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen - The document shows the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen [146][148]