英国央行副行长隆巴尔代利：英国潜在的通胀压力持续下降。 ...

Group 1 - The survey indicates that UK employers are cautious about hiring intentions for the next three months due to recent tax increases and global economic uncertainty [1] - The CIPD reported a decline in the employment market expectation index from +13 to +8, reaching a historical low outside of the pandemic period [1] - Large private enterprises showed particularly poor performance this quarter, contributing to the overall decline in the index [1] Group 2 - KPMG's CEO noted that despite a slight recovery in recruitment activities, it does not indicate a market turnaround due to ongoing pressures such as rising costs and global economic uncertainty [2] - The Bank of England expressed concerns about the cooling labor market and the potential for strong wage growth to lead to sustained inflationary pressures [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Cook anticipates that the trade policies and related uncertainties of the Trump administration will dampen productivity growth in the short term, potentially leading the Fed to maintain policy interest rates unchanged for a longer period [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - A decline in productivity and a slowdown in potential economic growth will likely increase inflationary pressures [1] - Lower productivity, under unchanged conditions, may lead to support for keeping interest rates elevated for an extended duration [1] Group 2: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Uncertainty regarding the final levels and duration of tariffs may reduce business investment, thereby impacting productivity [1] - If protectionist trade policies favor less efficient companies or disrupt supply chains, productivity could also be adversely affected [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Artificial intelligence has the potential to enhance U.S. productivity in the coming years, potentially offsetting the negative impacts of trade policies [1]

智通财经5月10日电，美联储COOK表示，关税政策可能会降低生产率，限制潜在产出，增加通胀压 力。生产率较低的经济可能需要更高的利率来遏制通货膨胀。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the May 2025 meeting, the Fed unanimously agreed to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5%. The meeting statement emphasized an increase in stagflation risks, and Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance, believing the current economic activity is robust and the cost of waiting is low [3]. - The changes in the meeting statement are mainly in two aspects: an increase in the uncertainty of the economic outlook and a rise in the risks of both high unemployment and high inflation [3]. - Powell's wait - and - see stance is due to the Fed having cut interest rates by 100BP, with the current interest rate being only moderately restrictive, and the economy remaining in good condition [3]. - Future prospects are highly uncertain. Inflation pressure may appear earlier than the upward pressure on unemployment. In the short term, inflation pressure may appear in June or July, constraining the Fed's probability of easing, and the probability of a rate cut in June is low [3]. - In terms of strategies, for US Treasuries, the better - than - expected April non - farm payroll data led to a callback in market rate - cut expectations, and the US Treasury yield curve flattened bearishly. There is a good opportunity to enter the short - end US Treasuries, and a bullish view is maintained on the long - end in the short term. For the US dollar index, it is expected to oscillate overall this year, and short - term negotiation progress and medium - term tax - cut bill implementation in the US may support its performance [3]. Summary by Related Content Fed Meeting - The Fed kept the policy rate at 4.25 - 4.5% in the May 2025 meeting, and the meeting statement emphasized stagflation risks [3]. - The statement changes included increased economic outlook uncertainty and rising risks of high unemployment and high inflation [3]. Powell's Stance - Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance, believing there's no need to act in a hurry as the current monetary policy is only moderately restrictive and the economy is in good shape [3][4]. - He thought the cost of waiting is low, with the labor market stable, unemployment low, and no large - scale layoffs [3][4]. - He also mentioned that the relationship between expected survey data and consumer spending is weak [3][4]. Future Outlook - Inflation pressure may appear earlier than unemployment pressure. Considering corporate inventories, inflation pressure may appear in June or July, and the probability of a June rate cut is low [3]. Investment Strategies - For US Treasuries, there's a good entry opportunity for short - end bonds, and a bullish view is held on long - end bonds in the short term. If policy uncertainty decreases, it may improve long - end liquidity and term premium [3]. - The US dollar index is expected to oscillate this year, and short - term negotiation progress and medium - term tax - cut bill implementation may support it [3].

英国央行：货币政策委员会考虑了国内通胀压力可能演变的多种情景，以及可能需要调整政策方向的各 种情况。 ...

鲍威尔表示，美联储认为等待并进一步观察的成本相当低，因此他们选择这样做。他指出，在其他经济体 还未对进口商品大规模加征关税的情况下，这些经济体更多面临的是需求疲软和劳动力市场降温的影响， 而无需像美联储那样担忧今年晚些时候可能出现的物价攀升压力。 此外，由于美国经济刚刚经历了一段艰难的高通胀时期，不少美联储官员也认为他们不应冒着先发制人的 降息风险来提振放缓的就业，以免在短期内加剧物价上涨的压力。这种立场已使得美联储与欧洲、加拿大 和英国央行处于了截然不同的政策轨道上。 在最近的美联储议息会议后，美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上多次使用"等待"一词的不同表述，强调美 联储不会急于行动来缓冲特朗普总统关税政策对经济可能造成的冲击。这一表态引发了外界的高度关注。 特朗普曾公开批评鲍威尔行动迟缓，并建议美联储效仿欧洲央行。但一些美联储官员近期已特别强调，他 们担心在经济疲软之前降息可能会在短期内放大物价压力。这种担心在很大程度上正是由特朗普的关税政 策所触发的。 摩根大通的经济学家已将美联储首次降息的时间点调整到了9月份，而高盛则预计美联储将从7月份才会开 始降息。这很可能令美欧间的利差至少在未来几个月进一步放大。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current decline in gold prices is influenced by upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, with market participants expecting rates to remain unchanged at a high probability of 98.1% [3] Market Analysis - As of May 7, gold prices have dropped to $3383.57 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 1.37% from earlier highs [1] - The highest price reached was $3437.49 per ounce, while the lowest was $3359.78 per ounce during the trading session [1] - The recent economic data, including a slowdown in core PCE inflation to 2.6% and strong employment figures, has alleviated some market concerns regarding inflationary pressures [3] Trading Strategy - The market anticipates a potential upward movement in gold prices if the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish stance, suggesting possible rate cuts [3] - Conversely, if the Fed maintains its current rate, it could strengthen the dollar and exert downward pressure on gold prices [3] - Current trading strategies suggest monitoring the price range between $3350 and $3404 for potential high-low trading opportunities, with a focus on support levels at $3350 and $3290 [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the fluctuations in gold prices influenced by geopolitical tensions and trade negotiations between the US and China, with a notable drop in gold prices due to reduced demand for safe-haven assets as trade talks progress [1][3][4] - Gold prices experienced a significant drop of nearly 2% in early Asian trading on May 7, following a two-week high, attributed to optimism surrounding US-China trade discussions [1][3] - Despite the recent decline, gold prices have increased by over 4% for the week, indicating underlying support from geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [1][4] Group 2 - The US Treasury Secretary's comments on the potential for progress in US-China trade negotiations have contributed to a more optimistic market sentiment, impacting gold's safe-haven demand [3][4] - The ongoing geopolitical risks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, continue to drive safe-haven investments into gold [4][5] - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is anticipated to influence gold prices, with expectations that the Fed will maintain interest rates, which could further support gold if a dovish stance is indicated [5][6] Group 3 - Oil prices have surged due to increased demand from Asia and a decrease in US production, with WTI crude oil rising by 3.18% to $58.97 per barrel [7][8] - The OPEC+ decision to increase production significantly in June may create downward pressure on oil prices in the medium term, despite current upward momentum driven by easing trade tensions [8][10] - The market is closely monitoring US inventory data and trade negotiations, as these factors are crucial for understanding future oil price movements [8][10]

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced fluctuations, with a rebound following gold prices, amid concerns over new U.S. policies on drug imports and tariffs, which have heightened demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, which poses long-term pressure on non-yielding assets like silver [2] - The current silver price is testing a key resistance level of $33.500, with potential upward movement if this level is breached [2] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with geopolitical tensions potentially driving silver prices above $33.500 towards the psychological level of $35.000 [3] - Institutional positioning shows a slight increase in long and short ratios, indicating a balanced market without extreme sentiment [3] Technical Analysis - The Bollinger Bands indicate that silver is currently in an upward channel, with the upper band at $34.715 and the lower band at $29.966 [2] - Key support levels for silver are identified at $32.800 and $32.400, with a potential drop to $31.182 if these levels are breached [3] Trading Strategy - A trading strategy suggests entering long positions around $31.88 with a stop loss at $31.50 and a take profit target between $33.68 and $33.90 [7]