与此同时，当前正值特朗普对全球关税调整大规模调整，并开始影响消费者生活成本。美国经济正在经历动荡。 美国劳工部劳工统计局8月12日公布数据显示，美国7月CPI同比上升2.7%，环比上升0.2%。整体符合预期。 数据发布后，美股期货短线走高，美股三大指数集体高开。市场认为数据并没有过于火热，交易员们大幅上调对 美联储9月降息的押注，目前概率高达95%。 总统特朗普也迫不及待地呼吁美联储主席鲍威尔现在必须降息。 CPI是衡量一揽子商品和服务价格的消费者价格指数，是政府制定有关财政、货币、消费、工资、社会保障等政 策的重要依据。下个月，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）成员会评估当前的经济状况，包括通货膨胀和就业数 据，以决定是否调整利率。 特朗普一直施压美联储降息以刺激经济增长，但美联储官员以新关税对价格影响的不确定性为由，迟迟不肯调整 利率。 经济学家Brian Jacobsen表示，只要通胀指标保持可控，美联储就应该有足够的信心在下次会议上重启降息。 具体来看，剔除了波动较大的能源和食品的核心CPI在上个月上涨了3.1%。外卖和餐馆的价格比去年上涨了 3.9%，使整体食品价格上涨了2.9%。二手车、住房和医疗保 ...

此外，近期降息的效果是否会滞后，企业的定价决策和工资调整办法将如何影响总需求和潜在供给之间 的平衡，劳动力市场状况以及劳动生产率会不会持续疲软等方面还存在不确定性。 新华财经悉尼8月12日电 澳大利亚储备银行（央行）12日宣布将基准利率下调25个基点至3.6%。这是澳 央行继今年2月和5月采取降息措施后，年内第三次下调基准利率。 澳央行董事会表示，鉴于基础通胀继续向着目标区间中点位置附近回落，劳动力市场状况略有放松，董 事会认为进一步放松货币政策是合适的。但考虑到总需求和潜在供给之间的不确定性加剧，董事会对前 景仍持谨慎态度。 自2022年5月至2023年11月，澳央行共加息425个基点。此后，该行连续多次维持基准利率不变，直到今 年2月宣布降息25个基点，将基准利率下调至4.1%。今年5月，澳央行年内第二次宣布降息，将基准利 率下调至3.85%。 澳央行董事会在最新发布的货币政策声明中表示，自2022年达峰以来，澳大利亚的通胀已大幅下降。二 季度的同比截尾均值通胀率，即基础通胀率（underlyiing inflation），为2.7%，基本符合预期。同时， 该季度澳大利亚的整体通胀率因受到澳政府降低生活成 ...

【导读】澳大利亚降息25个基点 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，关注一下澳大利亚降息的消息。 澳大利亚降息25个基点 8月12日，澳大利亚央行（RBA）将基准利率下调25个基点至 3.6% ，符合市场预期，这也是今年第三次降息，利率水平创下2023年4月 以来新低。本轮宽松周期以来，RBA已累计降息75个基点。随着劳动力市场依旧紧张、生产率增长乏力，市场关注的焦点正转向后续降息 的幅度和节奏。 | RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA | | | What are you looking for? | Search | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Monetary Policy Market Operations Payments & Infrastructure | Financial Stability | Banknotes | Financial Services | About Us | | Media Releases Speeches Publications Statistics Chart Pack Research | Archives ...

高盛表示，由于承担了美加征关税的成本，不少美国企业会抬高价格，减少损失，而这部分成本无疑将 被转嫁至美国消费者的身上。高盛指出，截至6月份，美国消费者消化了大约22%的关税成本，如关税 政策延续，这一数字可能在未来上升到67%。上个月，摩根士丹利的一份研究报告也曾指出，未来10 年，美国政府可能征收高达2.7万亿美元的关税，而这笔钱将由美国消费者来埋单。 美媒：关税正在推升美国通胀水平 当地时间11日，据美国《财富》杂志网站报道，美国高盛集团的研究显示，美国企业承担的美国加征关 税的成本，正越来越多地转移到了美国消费者的身上。 高盛还指出，截至目前，关税已经使美国核心个人消费支出物价指数上涨0.2%，如果关税持续下去， 预计今年12月美国核心个人消费支出物价指数同比涨幅将达到3.2%，进一步加剧美联储降息难度。10 日，美国彭博新闻社网站发表文章称，美国加征关税的做法"正在推高美通胀水平"。6月美国核心消费 者价格指数环比上涨0.2%，7月继续环比上涨0.3%。目前，关税已经开始对多种商品价格造成影响，预 计未来美关税政策对美国物价的影响将继续逐步显现。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

7月CPI、PPI数据出来了。7月CPI同比0%，好于预期-0.1%，也就是说和去年差不多，没涨也没跌。环 比-0.1%，弱于季节性。 八大项中，除食品项明显弱于季节性外，其余分项表现强于季节性。食品项价格明显偏弱，对CPI的拉 动大幅下行，虽然猪肉、鲜菜价格基本持平，但在基数效应的影响下，同比拉动率明显下滑。 7月核心CPI同比增加0.8%升至1年半以来最高，主要受需求修复及商品补贴结束的影响，服务和消费品 支撑核心CPI修复。核心CPI环比为0.4%，略强于季节性。服务方面，暑期出行需求旺盛(交通通信环比 +1.5%、教育文娱环比+1.3%)。毕业季也带动房租季节性上涨0.1%，但仍持续弱于季节性。交通工具燃 料3.5%,强于季节性，主要反映前期的油价上涨，家用器具(2.2%)、通信工具(0.3%)、交通工具表现均强 于季节性，延续前月上行趋势，可能与前期降价促销后的价格修复有关，汽车补贴也有收敛迹象，快递 涨价也对终端价格有一定带动。 再来看看PPI数据，7月PPI同比-3.6%，低于预期-3.4%，持平于前值-3.60%。环比-0.2%，较上月提升 0.2pct。PPI生产资料环比-0.2%，同比-4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of long-term pure bond funds, highlighting their underperformance in 2025 due to low interest rates and the shift towards "fixed income plus" products that combine bonds with equities for better returns [10][12][35]. Summary by Sections Types of Bond Funds - Common types of bond funds include short-term pure bond funds, long-term pure bond funds, and "fixed income plus" funds [1][4][6]. - Short-term pure bond funds have minimal volatility, typically with a drawdown of less than 1% [1]. - Long-term pure bond funds, such as 7-10 year government bonds, exhibit greater volatility, potentially comparable to low-volatility stock funds [2][3]. - "Fixed income plus" funds combine bonds with a small portion of equities or convertible bonds, aiming for higher returns [4][5]. Performance Trends - In 2021, long-term pure bond funds had interest yields of over 3%-4%, but entered a declining interest rate cycle thereafter [7][8]. - A bull market for long-term pure bond funds lasted from 2021 to 2024, but by 2025, these funds faced significant declines due to low yields [9][10][12]. - As of late 2024, the yield on 10-year government bonds was around 1.6%-1.7%, making long-term pure bonds less attractive [12]. Factors Influencing Bond Fund Performance - Interest rate fluctuations are a primary factor affecting bond fund performance, with declining rates typically leading to rising bond prices [15][16]. - The long-term trajectory of interest rates is influenced by economic growth rates and inflation [20][21]. - In 2025, the performance of long-term pure bond funds was negatively impacted by rising interest rates and a strong stock market [13][20]. Shift to "Fixed Income Plus" Products - Due to low yields on traditional bond funds, investors are increasingly turning to "fixed income plus" products, which offer a mix of stable bond returns and higher-risk equities [35][36]. - "Fixed income plus" funds typically consist of a defensive bond component and a more aggressive equity component, aiming to enhance overall returns [36][37]. - The performance of "fixed income plus" products has been strong, with indices for these funds reaching new highs in 2025, contrasting with the decline in pure bond fund indices [38][39]. Characteristics of "Fixed Income Plus" Products - These products leverage the negative correlation between stocks and bonds, allowing for reduced volatility and improved long-term returns [39][40]. - The risk profile of "fixed income plus" products is significantly influenced by the proportion of equities they hold [43][44]. - They benefit from declining deposit rates, as traditional savings accounts offer lower returns, prompting investors to seek better alternatives [46][48]. Investment Considerations - Investors should assess the equity proportion in "fixed income plus" products based on their risk tolerance [51]. - The bond component should focus on mid to short-term bonds, which currently offer more stability [51]. - Selecting funds with automatic rebalancing strategies can help mitigate risks associated with market volatility [51][60]. Examples of "Fixed Income Plus" Products - The 365-day and monthly salary investment combinations are highlighted as effective "fixed income plus" options, with varying equity and bond ratios [52][55]. - These products have shown resilience and recovery in performance, with the 365-day combination achieving historical highs since its inception [55][58].

Group 1 - Argentina's currency denomination has increased 100 times in the past 8 years, reaching 10,000 pesos, with new bills printed by a Chinese printing factory [1][2][11] - The economic situation in Argentina has been deteriorating since the Falklands War, with severe inflation rates, reaching 211.4% in 2023 and a monthly inflation rate of 25.5% in December [5][2] - The Argentine government has resorted to issuing high-denomination bills to cope with the economic crisis, leading to the need for 10,000 peso notes [7][9] Group 2 - More than half of the countries globally cannot independently produce banknotes with advanced anti-counterfeiting technology, which is a significant reason for Argentina's reliance on China for printing [4][15] - China's printing technology has gained international recognition, with countries like Nepal and Cuba also outsourcing their currency production to China [13][17] - The efficiency and scale of China's printing capabilities are unmatched, making it a preferred partner for many countries in need of currency production [13][17]

米歇尔·鲍曼（资料图） 美联储监管副主席米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）在最新的讲话中释放两条关键信息：她支持今年进行三次降息，并将在10月9日主持一 次社区银行会议。 鲍曼当地时间周六（8月9日）发布在美联储官网上的讲稿中表示，她支持年内三次降息，并指出这一立场因美国近期疲弱的劳动力市场数 据而得到强化。 她表示，这样的举措"将有助于避免劳动力市场状况出现进一步不必要的恶化，并降低在劳动力市场进一步恶化时，委员会不得不采取更 大幅度政策纠偏的可能性"。 来源：美联储官网 鲍曼重申了她之前的观点，即关税推动的物价上涨不太可能持续推高通胀，"随着我对关税不会对通胀构成持续冲击的信心不断增强，我 认为物价稳定面临的上行风险已减弱。" "鉴于基础通胀正持续向2%目标回落，总需求疲软，以及劳动力市场出现脆弱迹象，我认为我们应将关注点放在就业目标面临的风险 上。" 分析认为，鲍曼与沃勒立场可能会得到更多委员的支持。 上周，美联储连续第五次会议将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。在决议中，鲍曼和另一位理事克里斯托弗·沃勒一 同投下了反对票，他们认为应该降息25个基点。 鲍曼和沃勒都是 ...

美媒：关税致食品成本飙升 美国多家餐厅陷经营困境 图为美国民众在马里兰州罗克韦尔一超市购物。 中新社记者 沙晗汀 摄 据报道，餐厅几乎没有回旋余地来应对食品成本上涨，稍有不慎便会侵蚀利润，而随着特朗普政府的贸 易战仍在持续发酵，可能会继续推高西红柿等其他食品的价格。 除了成本上涨之外，消费者不再经常外出就餐也增加了餐厅的经营压力。 报道称，低收入消费者继续感受到生活成本上涨的压力，因此支出速度放缓。而多年来的高通胀也让美 国消费者不堪重负，中等收入消费者也面临压力。 美国经济专家表示，由于同时感受到销售疲软和关税的双重打击，许多餐厅正陷入困境。 中新网8月10日电 据美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)报道，美国关税阴影下，牛肉、鸡蛋等食品价格上涨， 推高美国餐厅经营成本，加之消费者对经济前景感到担忧，美国多家餐厅的经营陷入困境。 报道举例称，俄克拉荷马州塔尔萨的艾克辣椒餐厅(Ike's Chili)已有117年历史，经历了大萧条、通货膨 胀等诸多挑战后，2025年，其将面临更加严峻的挑战。 餐厅相关负责人韦德称，"所有东西的成本都在上涨，我们必须想办法妥善管理。" 韦德表示，"餐厅需要再次涨价，但我担心价格会将顾客 ...

Group 1 - Developed markets' stock indices experienced a rebound, with the Nasdaq index rising by 3.9%, and the S&P 500 increasing by 2.4% [2][3] - Emerging market indices mostly saw gains, with the Ho Chi Minh index up by 6.0% and the Cairo CASE 30 up by 4.7%, while the Indian SENSEX fell by 0.9% [3][11] - The Hang Seng Index and related indices all rose, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 1.4% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 1.2% [11] Group 2 - The majority of sectors in the S&P 500 saw increases, particularly Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services, which rose by 4.3%, 3.8%, and 3.3% respectively [6] - In the Eurozone, sectors such as Financials, Materials, and Industrials also saw gains, with increases of 5.8%, 3.5%, and 2.8% respectively [6] Group 3 - The prices of major commodities showed mixed results, with WTI crude oil falling by 7.8% to $63.9 per barrel, while coking coal prices rose by 12.3% to 1,227 yuan per ton [26][30] - Precious metals prices increased, with COMEX gold rising by 1.3% to $3,403.5 per ounce and COMEX silver up by 4.4% to $38.4 per ounce [30][31] Group 4 - The U.S. announced new tariffs on semiconductor imports, imposing a 100% tariff on all imported semiconductor chips, effective August 7, while also increasing tariffs on Indian goods by 25% [32][34] - The U.S. Treasury held several bond auctions, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.26%, indicating weaker demand for long-term bonds [34] Group 5 - The U.S. ISM Services PMI for July was reported at 50.1, below the market expectation of 51.5, indicating a potential slowdown in the services sector [40] - Upcoming U.S. CPI data is anticipated, with consensus predicting a core CPI increase of 0.3% for July, which may influence future Federal Reserve rate decisions [43][44] Group 6 - Germany's industrial production for June fell by 1.9%, significantly below the expected decline of 0.5%, suggesting ongoing economic challenges [46]