1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the yields of Treasury bonds strengthened, with yields from 1 - 7Y down by 0.5 - 2bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields down by about 2bp to 1.66% and 1.89% respectively. Treasury bond futures closed up collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising 0.01%, 0.04%, 0.13%, and 0.37% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.66%. [2] - Domestically, policy pre - force boosts domestic demand, resulting in strong economic data. Retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and industrial added value slightly exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate improved month - on - month. In April's financial data, credit was weak, possibly due to the overdraft of reserves from Q1 credit issuance. Core inflation improved, but industrial price data was still weak due to international commodities. The expected escalation of tariff friction led to an export rebound, and fiscal and monetary policies are expected to be continuously strengthened for stable growth. [2] - Overseas, the US April PMI declined slightly, non - farm payrolls growth, PPI, and retail sales data were all below expectations, and CPI cooled unexpectedly. However, the market has not significantly adjusted the expectation of a June interest rate cut. [2] - Strategically, recent Sino - US tariff negotiations achieved phased results, and the release of interest rate and reserve requirement cuts' positive news led to a significant decline in market risk - aversion sentiment, causing the bond market to weaken. Considering the significant short - end underperformance compared to the long - end recently, there may be no good short - term trading opportunities, and there is a risk of long - end catch - up decline due to short - term spread correction. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T main contract closed at 108.605, up 0.13%, with a trading volume of 57,954, an increase of 8,147. [2] - TF main contract closed at 105.735, up 0.04%, with a trading volume of 42,586, an increase of 10,666. [2] - TS main contract closed at 102.258, unchanged, with a trading volume of 15,952, an increase of 169. [2] - TL main contract closed at 119.320, up 0.37%, with a trading volume of 43,076, a decrease of 8,519. [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2509 - 2506 spread was 0.40, up 0.02; T06 - TL06 spread was - 10.72, down 0.28. [2] - T2509 - 2506 spread was 0.22, up 0.05; TF2509 - 2506 spread was 0.27, up 0.08. [2] - TF06 - T06 spread was - 2.87, down 0.11; TS06 - T06 spread was - 6.35, down 0.14. [2] - TS2509 - 2506 spread was 0.13, up 0.01; TS06 - TF06 spread was - 3.48, down 0.03. [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T main contract open interest was 82,926, a decrease of 16,686. The top 20 long positions were 180,613, a decrease of 1,278; the top 20 short positions were 180,122, a decrease of 642; the net short position was 0, unchanged. [2] - TF main contract open interest was 66,890, a decrease of 12,462. The top 20 long positions were 133,033, a decrease of 1,890; the top 20 short positions were 146,502, a decrease of 2,268; the net short position was 13,469, a decrease of 378. [2] - TS main contract open interest was 37,646, a decrease of 6,630. The top 20 long positions were 89,490, a decrease of 1,659; the top 20 short positions were 108,959, a decrease of 2,221; the net short position was 19,469, a decrease of 562. [2] - TL main contract open interest was 47,914, a decrease of 2,273. The top 20 long positions were 95,272, an increase of 2,512; the top 20 short positions were 95,170, an increase of 2,183; the net short position was 0, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 220003.IB (6y) was 107.0295, up 0.0553; 240025.IB (6y) was 99.0955, up 0.0942. [2] - 240014.IB (4y) was 101.4363, up 0.0166; 220021.IB (4y) was 104.4235, up 0.0108. [2] - 250006.IB (1.7y) was 100.2214, up 0.0134; 220007.IB (1.9y) was 101.903, up 0.0236. [2] - 200012.IB (18y) was 136.4822, up 0.3013; 210005.IB (18y) was 135.4265, up 0.2939. [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y yield was 1.4450%, up 1.00bp; 3y yield was 1.5050%, up 1.50bp. [2] - 5y yield was 1.5450%, up 0.75bp; 7y yield was 1.6300%, up 0.75bp. [2] - 10y yield was 1.6790%, up 0.90bp. [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Overnight silver - pledged repo rate was 1.5256%, up 4.56bp; Shibor overnight was 1.5370%, down 11.70bp. [2] - 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.6100%, up 1.00bp; Shibor 7 - day was 1.5620%, up 1.70bp. [2] - 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.6700%, up 3.37bp; Shibor 14 - day was 1.6540%, up 5.30bp. [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y LPR was 3.10%, unchanged; 5y LPR was 3.6%, unchanged. [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - Reverse repurchase issuance scale was 135 billion yuan, with a maturity scale of 43 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.5% for 7 days. Another issuance scale was 92 billion yuan. [2] 3.9 Industry News - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng, Financial Regulatory Administration Director Li Yunze, and CSRC Chairman Wu Qing attended the Capital Financial Work Symposium. Pan Gongsheng said the central bank will support Beijing in building a high - ground for science and technology finance development and promoting Beijing's RMB internationalization to remain at the forefront nationwide. [2] - US President Trump said he will set new tariff rates for US trading partners in the "next two to three weeks", stating that the US government is unable to negotiate with all trading partners simultaneously. Treasury Secretary Bezant and Commerce Secretary Ratnik will send letters to inform countries of the costs for accessing the US market. [2] - Moody's downgraded the US rating from AAA to AA1 and adjusted the outlook from negative to stable, citing increased government debt. By 2035, the US federal debt burden will rise to 134% of GDP, and the federal government deficit is expected to reach 9% of GDP. GDP growth may slow as the economy adjusts to tariffs. [2]

期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：国债期货小幅下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.1%。银行间主要利率债收益率小幅上行，幅度多在1bp左右，三年以内中短券收益率升幅仍较明显。 存款类机构隔夜和七天质押式回购利率双双大幅飙升，前者上行约22个bp，后者上行超11个bp。近期基本面压力有望缓和，宽松政策节奏放缓的可能上升。 2、资金面：5月16日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1065亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量1065亿元，中标量1065亿元。 Wind数据显示，当日770亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放295亿元。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年5月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230469 投资咨询证号：Z0000690 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3、基差：TS主力基差为-0.0333，现券贴水期货，偏空。TF主力基差为0. ...

Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - The 10 - year Treasury yields of various major economies on May 16, 2025, and their latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes are presented. For example, the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.480 on May 16, 2025, with a latest change of 0.047, a weekly change of 0.100, a monthly change of 0.144, and a yearly change of - 0.015 [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - The 2 - year Treasury yields of some major economies on May 16, 2025, and their corresponding changes are shown. For instance, the US 2 - year Treasury yield was 4.050 on that date, with a latest change of 0.030, a weekly change of 0.270, a monthly change of 0.310, and a yearly change of - 0.770 [3]. Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - The exchange rates of the dollar against major emerging - market currencies on May 16, 2025, and their changes are provided. For example, the dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.665 on that day, with a latest change of - 0.31%, a weekly change of 0.19%, a monthly change of - 3.76%, and a yearly change of 11.28% [3]. Stock Indices of Major Economies - The stock indices of major economies on May 16, 2025, and their latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes are given. For example, the S&P 500 index was 5958.380 on that date, with a latest change of 0.70%, a weekly change of 5.27%, a monthly change of 10.41%, and a yearly change of 14.86% [3]. Credit Bond Indices - The credit bond indices of different regions and levels on May 16, 2025, and their changes are presented. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index was 3344.160 on that day, with a latest change of 0.13%, a weekly change of 0.19%, a monthly change of 0.90%, and a yearly change of 5.44% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are provided. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3367.46 with a change of - 0.40% [5]. Valuation - The PE (TTM) and their环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are given. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 12.56 with a环比 change of - 0.08 [5]. Risk Premium - The risk premiums and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and German DAX are presented. For example, the risk premium of S&P 500 was - 0.56 with a环比 change of - 0.08 [5]. Fund Flows - The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are provided. For example, the latest fund flow in A - shares was - 263.31 [5]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, and ChiNext are given. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 10895.29 with a环比 change of - 628.66 [5]. Main Contract Basis and Spread - The basis and spread of IF, IH, and IC are presented. For example, the basis of IF was - 43.09 with a spread of - 1.11% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 are provided. For example, the closing price of T00 was 108.480 with a change of 0.02% [6]. - The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M and their daily changes are given. For example, the funding rate of R001 was 1.6513% with a daily change of 10.00 BP [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 降息预期兑现，短期震荡整理为 主 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周五国债期货均小幅震荡回调。由于外部风险因素有所缓和，内部经济指标尚待验证政 策效果，4 月信贷数据线上企业与居民部门的信贷需求偏弱，短期内继 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 30-year Treasury futures declined by 21 points, while the 10-year Treasury futures fell by 7 points [1] Group 1 - The decline in 30-year Treasury futures indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term bonds [1] - The drop in 10-year Treasury futures suggests a similar trend in the mid-term bond market [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of treasury bond futures is to fluctuate within a range. After the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, it is necessary to wait for data to verify the effect, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is low. The upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient, but due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of treasury bond yields is limited, so is the downward space of treasury bond futures. Overall, the upward and downward spaces of treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, mainly in a consolidation phase. [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "range - bound fluctuation". The core logic is that after the interest rate cut expectation is fulfilled, it is mainly in a short - term consolidation phase. [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "range - bound fluctuation". The core logic is that after the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, it is necessary to wait for data to verify the effect, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is low, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of treasury bond yields is limited, and the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited. In the short term, the upward and downward spaces of treasury bond futures are limited, mainly in a consolidation phase. Follow - up attention should be paid to external factors such as tariffs and the Fed, as well as domestic macro - economic indicators. [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Treasury bond futures mostly rose, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.24%, and yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds rebounded. The overall capital environment remained warm, and the follow - up situation of this month's Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) roll - over should be noted. The liquidity remained stable after the reserve requirement ratio cut rather than becoming more relaxed. The futures bonds are expected to remain volatile in the future [3][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Periodic Bond Market Review - **Fundamentals**: Treasury bond futures mostly rose, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.24%, and yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds rebounded. The overall capital environment remained warm, and the follow - up situation of this month's MLF roll - over should be noted [3] - **Funding**: On May 15, the People's Bank of China conducted 645 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate. That day, 1586 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1250 billion yuan of MLF matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2191 billion yuan on a full - caliber basis [3] - **Basis**: The basis of TS main contract is - 0.0297, with the spot discounting the futures, indicating a bearish signal. The basis of TF main contract is 0.0471, with the spot premium to the futures, indicating a bullish signal. The basis of T main contract is 0.1410, with the spot premium to the futures, indicating a bullish signal. The basis of TL main contract is 0.3601, with the spot premium to the futures, indicating a bullish signal [3] - **Inventory**: The deliverable bond balances of TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1359.4 billion yuan, 1493.5 billion yuan, and 2356.6 billion yuan respectively, showing a neutral situation [4] - **Market**: The TS, TF, and T main contracts are all running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Main Positions**: The TS main contract has a net long position, and the long position is increasing. The TF main contract has a net long position, and the long position is increasing. The T main contract has a net long position, and the long position is decreasing [5] - **Expectation**: The April PMI fell into the contraction range. The LPR has remained unchanged for 6 consecutive months. The central bank adjusted the MLF operation mode, and its policy attribute has completely faded. The central bank mentioned again the possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to promote a decline in the comprehensive social financing cost. After the tariff war suspension shock was quickly released and the reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts were implemented, the capital supply remained loose, and the continuous adjustment momentum of the bond market was still limited. The futures bonds are expected to remain volatile [5] 2. Market Review - The table shows the market elements of the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts, including the current price, increase or decrease, trading volume, open interest, daily position increase, and CTD bonds [7][8] 3. Spot Bond Analysis - There are data on DR interest rates and inter - bank treasury bond yields and treasury bond term spreads, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [9][13] 4. Basis Analysis - There are data on the basis of CTD bonds of T2506, TF2506, and TS2506 contracts, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [15][17][18]

Group 1 - The article discusses the costs associated with doing business and investing, emphasizing that every transaction has an acceptable maximum loss rather than just the principal investment [1] - The central bank conducted a 645 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a total net withdrawal of 2,191 billion yuan due to maturing reverse repos and MLF [1][2] - The interbank funding rates remained stable, with DR001 around 1.41% and DR007 around 1.52% throughout the day [1] Group 2 - The overnight risk assets saw a slight increase, while the bond market remained stable with the 10-year government bond yield hovering around 1.67% [3] - The central bank has been net withdrawing funds for three consecutive days, and the recent reserve requirement ratio cut has led to a weak performance in the stock market [3] - The article notes that the recent performance of the 2-year treasury futures has been weak, attributed to market uncertainty regarding the sustainability of monetary easing [4]

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约持平，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌0.03%，10年期国债期货（T） 主力合约涨0.02%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.24%。 国债期货午盘收盘 ...

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨0.01%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约跌0.01%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.13%。 国债期货早盘开盘 ...