1月20日，国新办举行新闻发布会。国家发展改革委有关负责人在会上表示，我国将研究制定并出台 2026—2030年扩大内需战略实施方案，以新供给创造新需求，提供强有力的创新举措和要素保障。 当前，我国经济面临"供强需弱"的问题，亟需通过扩大内需、优化供给，推动供需在更高水平上实现动 态平衡与良性循环，加快形成更多依靠内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式。 二是着力提高居民收入。居民收入增长是全面扩大内需的基础前提。2026年我国将制定实施城乡居民增 收计划，在财政支出中统筹"投资于物"与"投资于人"，优化政府投资结构，提高民生类项目的投资与支 出比重，从而有效带动需求提升。 当前我国经济发展中周期性、结构性问题相互交织，全面扩大内需既要做好短期逆周期调节、稳定需 求，更要依靠改革构建经济循环畅通的新模式。在生产、分配、交换、消费四个环节中，分配与交换更 依赖于体制机制支撑。为此，应加快推进全国统一大市场建设，持续优化社会分配格局，为内需增长提 供坚实制度保障。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 从年度短期政策来看，2026年我国将在优化"两新"（设备更新和消费品以旧换新）政策基础上实施新机 制。根据已发布文 ...

Core Insights - The overall funding environment remains stable, with a recovery in the bond market driven by a cooling stock market, while convertible bonds experience a collective decline [1] Group 1: Domestic News - The Ministry of Finance has issued five notifications to promote domestic demand, including a 500 billion yuan special guarantee plan for private investment aimed at increasing loans to small and micro enterprises [2] - In 2026, the Ministry of Finance plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, ensuring that total expenditure increases and key areas are adequately supported [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand, with plans to optimize support policies and develop a national-level merger fund [4] Group 2: International News - Global bond markets faced a significant sell-off due to fiscal pressures and geopolitical tensions, with U.S. Treasury yields rising by at least 4 basis points [6] - The sell-off was exacerbated by concerns over the unpredictability of U.S. government policies, particularly regarding tariffs on European countries [6] Group 3: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices increased, with WTI crude rising by 1.51% to $60.34 per barrel, and natural gas prices also saw a significant rise of 9.08% [7] Group 4: Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 3,240 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 346 billion yuan for the day [8] - The funding rates showed slight increases, with DR001 rising by 5.30 basis points to 1.371% [9] Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed signs of recovery, with the yield on the 10-year government bond decreasing by 0.65 basis points to 1.834% [12] - The credit bond market experienced significant price movements, with one industrial bond seeing a price increase of over 138% [14] Group 6: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market followed the equity market downwards, with major indices declining by approximately 0.64% to 0.72% [15] - The trading volume in the convertible bond market increased to 883.43 billion yuan, with 256 bonds declining in value [15]

王昌林表示，要坚持把宏观政策的发力点放在做强国内大循环上，全方位扩大国内需求。重点是要适应 需求升级的趋势，结合新一轮科技革命和产业变革的需要，将研究制定出台2026—2030年扩大内需战略 实施方案，为以新需求引领新供给、以新供给创造新需求提供强有力的创新举措和要素保障，努力实现 供需互促、循环升级。 本报讯 记者马玲报道 "当前，我国经济发展中需求不足的问题较为突出，同时也存在供给不充分的问 题。"1月20日，国家发展改革委副主任王昌林在国新办新闻发布会上表示，当前，供给到了从"有没 有"到"好不好"的阶段，有的需求很大，但供给不能满足。针对这些问题，必须坚决贯彻落实中央经济 工作会议精神，扩大内需、优化供给，推动供需在更高水平上实现动态平衡和良性循环，促进形成更多 由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式。 实体经济是我国经济发展的根基，王昌林表示，要发挥好国家创业投资基金行业标杆作用，研究设立国 家级并购基金，加强政府投资基金布局规划和投向指导，促进创新创业创造，加快培育和发展新质生产 力。 "坚持把市场运行的调控点放在纵深推进全国统一大市场建设上，充分激发市场活力。"王昌林表示，重 点是要综合整 ...

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market showed a weak consolidation with a slight recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4113.65 points, down 0.01%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14155.63 points, down 0.97% [1][4] - Among 30 sectors, 17 saw gains, with the oil and petrochemical, construction materials, and real estate sectors leading the increases, while defense, telecommunications, and computer sectors experienced significant declines [1][4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market was approximately 280.42 billion yuan, showing a slight increase compared to the previous day [1][4] Overseas Market Overview - All three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.76%, the S&P 500 down 2.06%, and the Nasdaq down 2.39% [2][4] - Notable declines included 3M Company, which fell nearly 7%, and IBM, which dropped over 4%, leading the Dow's decline [2][4] - Chinese concept stocks mostly fell, with JinkoSolar down over 12% and CenturyLink down more than 10% [2][4] News Highlights - The Chinese government has released five significant fiscal and financial policies aimed at boosting consumption, investment, and industrial upgrades [3][14] - The National Development and Reform Commission is working on plans to stabilize employment and increase urban and rural residents' income [3][19] - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have announced measures to further support urban renewal actions [3][17] Driving Factors - The macro policy for 2026 will focus on strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand, with plans to optimize support policies and establish a national-level merger fund [10] - On January 20, 2026, a total of 2233 stocks rose while 3102 fell, indicating a mixed market sentiment [10] - International market fluctuations may impact short-term market sentiment [10]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policies aimed at strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand, while also focusing on the development of the real economy and the construction of a unified national market [1][2][5]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies - The NDRC plans to formulate a strategic implementation plan for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, aligning with the trends of demand upgrades and technological revolutions [1]. - The focus will be on enhancing the quality of key industries and fostering emerging and future industries, particularly through initiatives like "Artificial Intelligence+" [1]. - The NDRC aims to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, with a key goal of promoting reasonable price recovery [2]. Group 2: Market Regulation and Competition - The NDRC intends to address "involution" competition by shifting from price competition to value competition, improving market access, and enhancing fair competition mechanisms [2]. - There will be a focus on regulating key industry prices and ensuring a healthy market order through the implementation of quality brand strategies [2]. - The NDRC plans to establish a national unified market construction regulation to standardize behaviors of local governments and enterprises [3]. Group 3: Energy Transition and Carbon Neutrality - The NDRC emphasizes the acceleration of energy transition by increasing the development of non-fossil energy and enhancing the capacity of the power grid [4]. - There will be a strong push for industrial upgrades towards green and low-carbon industries, including the promotion of zero-carbon parks and factories [4]. - The NDRC will implement comprehensive resource management and promote a circular economy to support carbon peak and neutrality goals [4]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The NDRC forecasts a continuous improvement in economic structure and development momentum, with significant potential in consumption, investment, technology, and regional development [5]. - The focus will be on combining policy support with reform and innovation to transform development potential into new economic growth [5].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the bond market and local government economic policies in China. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Current Bond Market Outlook**: The bond market should not be overly pessimistic, suggesting a neutral duration strategy and focusing on opportunities from increased allocation and interest rate cut expectations. The spread between 30-year and 10-year bonds is approaching 50 basis points, indicating potential for recovery [1][2][3]. 2. **Investment Recommendations**: - Focus on 5-year positive capital bonds, 5-10 year perpetual bonds, and high-rate long-term bonds. - The 30-year old bonds are more cost-effective compared to new bonds, and the 50-year government bonds present better opportunities [1][4]. 3. **Government Support for Local Projects**: Local governments are advancing project construction tailored to regional needs, with the Ministry of Finance emphasizing increased fiscal spending and financial collaboration to support local projects [1][7][8]. 4. **Debt Management and Wage Issues**: The government is addressing wage arrears for private enterprises and migrant workers to ensure smooth consumption during the Spring Festival. Measures include monitoring, data reporting, and credit penalties [2][9]. 5. **Banking Sector's Role**: Banks are actively providing liquidity loans to city investment companies to help repay project debts, indicating progress in debt clearance efforts [2][10]. 6. **Service Sector Development**: The business department is focusing on specific industries such as telecommunications, healthcare, and tourism in selected pilot cities to promote economic growth [2][11]. 7. **Fiscal Policy for 2026**: The fiscal policy will remain proactive, with a projected deficit rate around 10% of GDP, emphasizing job creation and timely repayment of debts to support various projects [2][17]. 8. **Investment in Major Projects**: The government plans to increase central budget investments significantly, targeting major engineering projects with high leverage effects [2][13]. 9. **Monitoring and Auditing**: The audit office will focus on the management of fiscal funds, especially in key sectors like energy and local government debt, to prevent systemic risks [2][14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Economic Growth Indicators**: The construction business activity index rose from 49.0 to 52.8, driven by early project approvals and new financial tools [2][12]. 2. **Measures to Increase Resident Income**: Specific initiatives in Anhui province aim to enhance income through job creation, support for entrepreneurs, and improved social security policies [2][20]. 3. **Support for Private Enterprises**: The government is implementing various financial measures to support private enterprises, including low-interest loans and quick debt issuance channels for small and medium enterprises [2][21].

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report emphasizes the revaluation of private refining companies in the petrochemical industry, highlighting that the petrochemical cycle is under pressure but shows signs of improvement ahead [6][7] - Key drivers for the petrochemical cycle include rising oil prices, supply-side capacity clearance, and demand-side stimulus from a loose monetary environment [6][7] - The report predicts that Brent oil prices will fluctuate between $55 and $75 per barrel in 2026, which could benefit refining profitability [7][8] Group 2: Economic Observations - The nominal GDP growth rate stabilized, with Q4 2025 GDP growth at 4.5%, slightly down from 4.8% in Q3 [11][12] - The contribution rates to GDP from final consumption, capital formation, and net exports were 52.9%, 16.0%, and 31.1% respectively in Q4 2025, indicating strong export support and stable consumption [13] - Investment showed a downward trend, with fixed asset investment growth at -3.8% for the year, highlighting the need for policy support to stabilize investment [15][16] Group 3: Industry Insights - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, significantly exceeding market expectations, driven by demand for AI and advanced process technologies [18][20] - The global smartphone market showed resilience in 2025, with a total shipment of 1.26 billion units, a 1.9% increase year-on-year, driven by high-end models and foldable screens [21][22] - The report suggests that the semiconductor industry is experiencing upward price trends, particularly in storage chips, indicating structural investment opportunities [19][23]

Group 1: International Market Overview - The global stock markets experienced declines, with the German DAX index down 1.08% at 24689.67 points, the French CAC40 index down 0.61% at 8062.58 points, and the UK FTSE 100 index down 0.67% at 10126.78 points [11] - In the US market, the Dow Jones fell 1.76% to 48488.59 points, the S&P 500 dropped 2.06% to 6796.86 points, and the Nasdaq decreased by 2.39% to 22954.32 points [11] - The Asia-Pacific market saw the Hong Kong Hang Seng index down 0.29% at 26487.51 points, the Hang Seng Tech index down 1.16% at 5683.44 points, and the Nikkei 225 index down 1.11% at 52991.1 points [11] Group 2: Domestic News - The State Council Vice Premier He Lifeng attended the World Economic Forum 2026 annual meeting and delivered a speech, engaging in discussions with US and UK financial leaders on economic and trade issues [12] - A comprehensive policy package was introduced to promote domestic demand, including a 500 billion yuan special guarantee plan for private investment and interest subsidies for small and micro enterprises in key industries [13] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized that macroeconomic policies in 2026 will focus on strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand [14] Group 3: Company News - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.44%, and the Wind China Concept Technology Leaders Index dropped 2.61%, with notable declines in companies such as JinkoSolar down over 12% and CenturyLink down over 10% [15] - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella stated that energy costs will be a key factor in determining which countries succeed in the AI race, highlighting the importance of energy in driving GDP growth [15] - Samsung is accelerating the production process at its first wafer fab in the US, aiming to prepare for mass production of Tesla's AI chips in the second half of 2026 [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The continuous improvement of the stock market since 2026 is the result of the joint action of four factors: the resonance of the technology cycle, the release of policy dividends, the improvement of economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. The market has gradually shifted from being dominated by valuation expansion to a new stage driven by earnings. It is expected that the supply - side reform in 2026 will continue, pushing up the prices of bulk commodities and driving up the prices of resource - based stocks. With the continuous release of policy effects, the further enhancement of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds allocating Chinese assets, the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4710.60, 4708.60, 4674.00, and 4615.00 respectively, with price drops of - 21.00, - 18.40, - 11.80, and - 15.40. The trading volumes were 25937.00, 79866.00, 19613.00, and 4293.00, and the open interest increased by 1118.00, 398.00, 487.00, and 591.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3073.60, 3075.40, 3069.60, and 3040.80 respectively, with price drops of - 3.00, - 3.00, - 5.20, and - 3.80. The trading volumes were 9734.00, 31503.00, 5816.00, and 1675.00, and the open interest changes were 166.00, - 503.00, 251.00, and 221.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 8257.80, 8248.80, 8142.00, and 8024.20 respectively, with price drops of - 40.80, - 41.00, - 21.40, and - 12.20. The trading volumes were 37883.00, 123309.00, 38855.00, and 13522.00, and the open interest increased by 3365.00, 3742.00, 5200.00, and 6430.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 8162.20, 8120.80, 7946.00, and 7778.00 respectively, with price drops of - 80.60, - 84.60, - 72.60, and - 79.40. The trading volumes were 41590.00, 150527.00, 38608.00, and 15115.00, and the open interest changes were 846.00, 3572.00, - 535.00, and 4320.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 2.00, 1.80, - 9.00, and - 41.40 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 4.20, 1.20, - 15.80, and - 43.40 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4718.88, 3070.65, 8247.80, and 8182.75 respectively, with price drops of - 0.33, - 0.17, - 0.48, and - 1.00. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 282.72, 60.00, 289.86, and 336.69, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 6719.61, 1757.36, 5881.71, and 5790.37 respectively [1] - **Industry Performance**: Among different industries, the energy, raw materials, optional consumption, and real - estate finance industries had price increases of 0.97%, 1.23%, 0.62%, and 0.64% respectively, while the industrial, pharmaceutical and healthcare, information technology, and telecommunications services industries had price drops of - 0.32%, - 0.95%, - 1.96%, and - 2.88% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month - CSI 300, next month - CSI 300, next quarter - CSI 300, and far - quarter - CSI 300) were - 8.28, - 10.28, - 44.88, and - 103.88 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts (current month - SSE 50, next month - SSE 50, next quarter - SSE 50, and far - quarter - SSE 50) were 2.95, 4.75, - 1.05, and - 29.85 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts (current month - CSI 500, next month - CSI 500, next quarter - CSI 500, and far - quarter - CSI 500) were 10.00, 1.00, - 105.80, and - 223.60 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts (current month - CSI 1000, next month - CSI 1000, next quarter - CSI 1000, and far - quarter - CSI 1000) were - 20.55, - 61.95, - 236.75, and - 404.75 respectively [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4113.65, 14155.63, 8727.52, and 3277.98 respectively, with price drops of - 0.01%, - 0.97%, - 1.19%, and - 1.79% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26487.51, 52991.10, 6796.86, and 24689.67 respectively, with price drops of - 0.29%, - 1.11%, - 2.06%, and - 1.08% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - **Policy Measures**: A package of policies for promoting domestic demand through fiscal - financial coordination has been introduced, including the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan for private investment, the implementation of a loan interest - subsidy policy for small and medium - sized enterprises, and the optimization of loan interest - subsidy policies for service providers, personal consumption loans, and equipment renewal loans [2] - **Global Bond Market**: The Greenland crisis and concerns about fiscal pressure have triggered a global bond - market sell - off. Japanese long - term government bonds have been sold off on a large scale, and the yields of 30 - year and 40 - year Japanese government bonds have risen by more than 25 basis points in a single day. The yields of 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year US Treasury bonds have all risen by about 8 basis points. A Danish pension fund plans to liquidate its US Treasury bond holdings [2] - **Government Speeches and Policies**: Vice - Premier He Lifeng attended the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026 and held talks with the US Treasury Secretary and the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer. The National Development and Reform Commission stated that in 2026, macro - policies should focus on strengthening the domestic cycle and expanding domestic demand. The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will remain at necessary levels, and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will continue to be issued [2] 6. Industry Information - **Water Resources and Water - saving Industry**: During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, China will continue to improve the total water - resource management and comprehensive water - saving system, aiming to increase the effective utilization coefficient of farmland irrigation water to over 0.6 and expand the scale of the water - saving industry to over 1.2 trillion yuan by 2030 [2] - **Oil Price Adjustment**: The domestic refined - oil price has increased for the first time in 2026. Starting from 24:00 on January 20, the prices of gasoline and diesel have increased by 85 yuan per ton, and the prices of 92 - octane gasoline, 95 - octane gasoline, and 0 - grade diesel have increased by 0.07 yuan per liter on average [2] - **Medical Insurance Policy**: The National Healthcare Security Administration has officially issued a guide for the pricing of auxiliary operation items, standardizing 37 price items, 5 additional items, and 1 extended item [2] - **Land Supply Plan**: Beijing has announced its 2026 construction - land supply plan, with 200 - 240 hectares of commercial - residential land and 350 hectares of affordable - housing land to be supplied. A city - renewal plan index has been listed for the first time [2] 7. Stock Index Views - **Market Performance**: The three major US stock indexes declined, and the domestic stock index fell in the previous trading day. The petroleum and petrochemical sector led the gains, while the communication sector led the losses. The market trading volume was 2.80 trillion yuan. On January 19, the margin trading balance decreased by 8.501 billion yuan to 2.705932 trillion yuan [2] - **Market Outlook**: The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in a volatile manner, driven by the continuous release of policy effects, the further enhancement of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds allocating Chinese assets [2]

Group 1: Hot News - The People's Bank of China kept the one-year and five-year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively, remaining unchanged for eight consecutive months [3] - Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that this year, the NDRC will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, creating new demand with new supply and providing strong innovation measures and factor guarantees [3] - On January 20, Liao Min, Deputy Minister of Finance, stated at a press conference that in 2026, the fiscal department will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, summarized as "increasing in total, better in structure, more effective, and stronger in momentum." The fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure in 2026 will be maintained at necessary levels to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases" and the protection of key areas "only strengthens"[3] - US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said that the interest rates are too high. If the interest rates are lowered by 100 basis points, the US economic growth rate will reach 6% or higher [3] Group 2: Key Concerns - Key commodities to focus on include silver, coking coal, coke, glass, and soda ash [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - Non-metallic building materials had a night session increase of 2.00%, precious metals 37.37%, oilseeds and oils 7.92%, soft commodities 2.70%, non-ferrous metals 24.49%, coal, coking, and steel minerals 9.70%, energy 2.17%, chemicals 9.61%, grains 1.13%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.91% [4] Group 4: Category Asset Performance - In equities, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of -0.01%, a monthly increase of 3.65%, and a year-to-date increase of 3.65; the S&P 500 had a daily decline of -2.06%, a monthly decline of -0.71%, and a year-to-date decline of -0.71 [6] - In fixed income, the 10-year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.13%, a monthly increase of 0.30%, and a year-to-date increase of 0.30; the 5-year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.09%, a monthly increase of 0.11%, and a year-to-date increase of 0.11 [6] - In commodities, the CRB Commodity Index had a daily increase of 1.42%, a monthly increase of 2.53%, and a year-to-date increase of 2.53; WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 0.67%, a monthly increase of 3.76%, and a year-to-date increase of 3.76 [6] - In other assets, the US Dollar Index had a daily decline of -0.51%, a monthly increase of 0.28%, and a year-to-date increase of 0.28; the CBOE Volatility Index had a daily increase of 0.00%, a monthly increase of 26.02%, and a year-to-date increase of 26.02 [6]