Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, the macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, so a cautious approach is recommended [6][7]. - Regarding stock indices, although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the low - level valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience make the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets promising. Consider going long on stock index futures [10][11]. - In the case of precious metals, the complex global trade and financial environment, along with the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, support the long - term bullish trend of precious metals. Consider going long on gold futures [12][13]. - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore, the policy currently dominates the market, and the prices follow the trend of coking coal. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks and hold existing long positions while managing their positions [14][16]. - For coking coal and coke, after the price fluctuations, the market is returning to the industrial supply - demand logic. Affected by policies, the prices may continue to be strong. Investors can look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [17]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term supply may exceed demand, but there may be opportunities to go long at low levels when the cost provides support [20]. - Regarding crude oil, the market is complex with high uncertainty due to OPEC+ production increases, poor US non - farm data, and geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [21][23]. - For fuel oil, the Asian market is well - supplied, and the new US tariff rate is unfavorable to the shipping market. The strategy is to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [24][25]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26][27]. - For natural rubber, although the macro - market sentiment has cooled, there are still opportunities to go long on pullbacks due to supply disruptions and cost support [28][29]. - For PVC, the supply exceeds demand, but the price may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [30][31]. - For urea, the short - term market may fluctuate, but a bullish view is held for the medium - term [32]. - For PX, the short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening. Consider range - bound trading [33]. - For PTA, the short - term supply changes little, demand may weaken, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening. There may be a callback risk, and range - bound trading is recommended [34][35]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply pressure increases, but the low - level inventory provides support. Consider range - bound trading and pay attention to port inventory and imports [36]. - For short - fiber, the short - term supply is high, demand is weak, and the price may fluctuate with the cost [37][38]. - For bottle - grade chips, the price may fluctuate with the cost due to raw material price fluctuations and device maintenance [39]. - For soda ash, the supply is at a high level, and the demand is average. The market is expected to adjust steadily in the short - term [40][41]. - For glass, the production is stable, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is weak. The price may be supported by cost in the short - term [42][43]. - For caustic soda, the supply is increasing after the resumption of production, and the price is expected to be stable [44][45]. - For pulp, the supply tends to expand, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [46][47]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply is high, the demand is improving but the trading is inactive. It is recommended to be cautious due to the uncertainty in the supply [49]. - For copper, the copper concentrate is in short supply, and the support factors for copper prices are weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [51][52]. - For tin, the supply is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [53]. - For nickel, the supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [54]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, the supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and there are opportunities to go long on soybean meal at the support level and exit long positions on soybean oil at high levels [55][57]. - For palm oil, the inventory is increasing, but there may be opportunities to go long [58][59]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the supply is expected to increase, and there are opportunities to go long [59][60]. - For cotton, the global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [61][63]. - For sugar, the production in Brazil is increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. - For apples, the production is expected to increase slightly, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [67][68]. - For live pigs, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [68][69]. - For eggs, the supply is increasing, and it is recommended to hold a 9 - 10 reverse spread [70][71]. - For corn and corn starch, the short - term supply - demand is balanced, and there are opportunities for virtual call options on old - crop contracts. Corn starch follows the corn market [73][74]. - For logs, the supply is tight, the demand is increasing, and the short - term bullish sentiment is strong [76][77]. Grouped by Product Categories Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts rising, and the 2 - year contract falling. The central bank conducted 160.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 288.5 billion yuan [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the Treasury bond yield is at a low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market [6]. Stock Indices - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The seven - department joint guidance on financial support for new industrialization was issued [8][9]. - The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the low - level valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience make the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets promising. Consider going long on stock index futures [10]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed higher. The US trade deficit in June was 60.2 billion US dollars [12]. - The complex global trade and financial environment, along with the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, support the long - term bullish trend of precious metals. Consider going long on gold futures [12]. Steel Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The policy currently dominates the market, and the prices follow the trend of coking coal. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses rebar prices. Investors can look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The policy dominates the market, and the price follows coking coal. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but it may weaken in the medium - term. Investors can look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. After the price fluctuations, the market is returning to the industrial supply - demand logic. Affected by policies, the prices may continue to be strong. Investors can look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The short - term supply may exceed demand, but there may be opportunities to go long at low levels when the cost provides support [19][20]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil opened low and closed high. OPEC+ increased production, and the US non - farm data was poor. The market is complex with high uncertainty. It is recommended to wait and see [21][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil opened low and closed high. The Asian market is well - supplied, and the new US tariff rate is unfavorable to the shipping market. The strategy is to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [24][25]. Rubber Products - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The raw material price rebounded, and the supply and demand are improving. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The macro - market sentiment has cooled, but there are still opportunities to go long on pullbacks due to supply disruptions and cost support [28]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: The previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The supply exceeds demand, but the price may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [30]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, urea futures rose. The short - term market may fluctuate, but a bullish view is held for the medium - term [32]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, PX futures fell. The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening. Consider range - bound trading [33]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The short - term supply changes little, demand may weaken, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening. There may be a callback risk, and range - bound trading is recommended [34][35]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply pressure increases, but the low - level inventory provides support. Consider range - bound trading and pay attention to port inventory and imports [36]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The short - term supply is high, demand is weak, and the price may fluctuate with the cost [37][38]. - **Bottle - Grade Chips**: The previous trading day, bottle - grade chips futures fell. The price may fluctuate with the cost due to raw material price fluctuations and device maintenance [39]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is average. The market is expected to adjust steadily in the short - term [40][41]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production is stable, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is weak. The price may be supported by cost in the short - term [42][43]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The supply is increasing after the resumption of production, and the price is expected to be stable [44][45]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The supply tends to expand, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [46][47]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is high, the demand is improving but the trading is inactive. It is recommended to be cautious due to the uncertainty in the supply [49]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures rose. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the support factors for copper prices are weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [51][52]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, Shanghai tin futures rose. The supply is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [53]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel futures fell. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [54]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and there are opportunities to go long on soybean meal at the support level and exit long positions on soybean oil at high levels [55][57]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, palm oil futures rose. The inventory is increasing, but there may be opportunities to go long [58][59]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures rose. The supply is expected to increase, and there are opportunities to go long [59][60]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded slightly. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [61][63]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fell. The production in Brazil is increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The production is expected to increase slightly, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [67][68]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous trading day, live pig futures rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [68][69]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, egg futures fell. The supply is increasing, and it is recommended to hold a 9 - 10 reverse spread [70][71]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures fell. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and there are opportunities for virtual call options on old - crop contracts. Corn starch follows the corn market [73][74]. Logs - The previous trading day, log futures fell. The supply is tight, the demand is increasing, and the short - term bullish sentiment is strong [76][77].

在"20CM涨停"的加持下，上纬新材成为A股历史上最快成为"10倍股"的大牛股（不含上市首日新股） ——用时仅16个自然日。到8月5日，上纬新材股价突破110元，总市值也来到了446亿元，而在行情启动 前，其股价为7.78元，总市值不过31亿元。 公开资料显示，上纬新材是全球环保耐蚀树脂的主要供应商，主营业务涵盖环保高性能耐腐蚀材料、风 电叶片用材料、新型复合材料以及循环经济材料等领域。自2020年上市以来，公司经营业绩并不稳定， 股价表现也较为平淡，堪称化工行业的冷门股。 7月8日晚间，上纬新材发布公告称，智元机器人通过公司及核心团队共同出资设立的持股平台，以协议 转让和要约收购的方式取得公司控制权，至少收购其63.62%股份。 业内将之视为新质生产力企业在A股的标志性收购案例，也是具身智能企业在科创板的首单收购案例。 8月6日开盘，上纬新材股价开盘即大跌16.73%，成交金额1.01亿元。截至发稿，跌幅缩小至12.22%，最 新股价为96.98元，市值391亿元。 8月5日晚，上交所发布通报称：上纬新材近期多次出现严重异常波动情形，公司已多次发布风险提示公 告，提请广大投资者审慎投资，注意投资风险。近日， ...

——用时仅16个自然日。到8月5日，上纬新材股价突破110元，总市值也来到了446亿元，而在行情启动 前，其股价为7.78元，总市值不过31亿元。 公开资料显示，上纬新材是全球环保耐蚀树脂的主要供应商，主营业务涵盖环保高性能耐腐蚀材料、风 电叶片用材料、新型复合材料以及循环经济材料等领域。自2020年上市以来，公司经营业绩并不稳定， 股价表现也较为平淡，堪称化工行业的冷门股。 7月8日晚间，上纬新材发布公告称，智元机器人通过公司及核心团队共同出资设立的持股平台，以协议 转让和要约收购的方式取得公司控制权，至少收购其63.62%股份。 业内将之视为新质生产力企业在A股的标志性收购案例，也是具身智能企业在科创板的首单收购案例。 8月6日开盘，上纬新材股价开盘即大跌16.73%，成交金额1.01亿元。截至发稿，跌幅缩小至12.22%，最 新股价为96.98元，市值391亿元。 8月5日晚，上交所发布通报称：上纬新材近期多次出现严重异常波动情形，公司已多次发布风险提示公 告，提请广大投资者审慎投资，注意投资风险。近日，该股股价继续大幅波动，部分投资者在交易该股 过程中存在影响市场正常交易秩序、误导投资者正常交易决策的 ...

Core Views - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market remains attractive due to low valuations and increasing trading activity driven by the "profit-making effect" [4] - The report suggests a medium to long-term optimistic outlook for the market, with significant inflows of capital from mainland China [4] Market Review - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,831 points, down 145 points or 0.61%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closed at 9,656 points, down 47 points or 0.49% [2] - The market turnover decreased to 82.799 billion HKD, with net inflows of 484 million HKD recorded in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [2] - The report notes that local real estate, software, and 5G sectors experienced the largest declines, while gold stocks performed well [2] Economic Data - China's July services PMI rose to 52.6, marking a 14-month high, which contributed to a brief recovery in the Hang Seng Index [2] - The report indicates that the A-share and Hong Kong stock indices recorded gains of 2% to 5% in July, with the healthcare sector performing the best, as evidenced by a 23% increase in the Wind Hang Seng Medical Health Index [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as artificial intelligence, robotics, semiconductors, and industrial software, which are seen as new productivity drivers [4] - It also suggests monitoring new consumption sectors supported by policy, including infant consumption, sports apparel, and IP film and animation [4] - The report highlights the value of investing in state-owned enterprises with low valuations and high dividends, as well as technology companies benefiting from AI integration [4] Company Spotlight - ZTE Corporation (0763HK) is highlighted as a leading global communication manufacturing company, with a projected revenue of 121.299 billion RMB for 2024, a slight decrease of 2.38% year-on-year [9] - Despite a small decline in revenue and net profit, ZTE maintains a high gross margin of 37.91% and has shown significant growth in its enterprise and consumer business segments [9] - The report emphasizes ZTE's competitive advantage in computing power, particularly with its newly launched intelligent computing server capable of supporting 64 GPUs [9]

重点行业景气拐点显现 王正 华宝基金量化投资部总经理助理、基金经理 在A股市场，创业板一直是"科技"与"成长"的代名词，自2009年开板以来始终肩负着 激励创业、引领创新的重要使命，站在新经济浪潮的前沿，不断为中国经济转型发展 注入新动能。而 创业板综指（399102） 作为几乎覆盖创业板全部上市股票的宽基 指数，为投资者提供了一键布局创业板整体机会的高效工具。 创业板投资价值分析 1 国家政策支持 作为中国资本市场服务创新型、成长型企业的核心阵地，创业板自2009年设立以来，始终肩 负着支持科技创新、培育新质生产力的重要使命。在A股多层次资本市场体系中，创业板与主 板、科创板形成差异化定位——主板聚焦成熟企业，科创板专注"硬科技"，而创业板则定位 于 "三创四新"（创新、创造、创意，新技术、新产业、新业态、新模式）企业 ，覆盖更广泛 的成长型创新创业公司，是加速经济新旧动能转换的重要驱动力。 2024年12月的中央政治局会议，明确强调"推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展"，"要以科技 创新引领新质生产力发展，建设现代化产业体系"，持续彰显宏观政策对创业板新质核心资产 的有力支持。另外交易所的注册制等相关配套制度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings but provides a "Focus Index" for specific sectors: the coal and coke sector is rated ★★★★, indicating high attention [8]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Policy Impact**: The joint issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - style Industrialization" by seven departments including the People's Bank of China aims to promote the high - end development of industries, support digital infrastructure construction, prevent "involution - type" competition, and enhance the supply guarantee capacity of strategic resources [7]. - **Sector Analysis** - **Coal and Coke**: Supply contraction expectations are strengthening, and the market is in a pattern of weak current situation and strong future expectations. The coal and coke market is expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. - **PX**: With supply increasing and demand decreasing in August, the supply - demand structure is gradually becoming balanced, and a short - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [12]. - **Other Commodities**: Different trends are presented for various commodities such as precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, including trends like narrow - range fluctuations, bullish or bearish trends [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy News - Seven departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued an opinion to support new - style industrialization, strengthen long - term loan support for digital infrastructure construction, and support important mineral resource development [7]. - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue a record - high amount of short - term bonds this week, and there are concerns about the U.S. economic situation such as stagflation [24]. 3.2 Sector Highlights 3.2.1 Coal and Coke - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Domestic supply recovery is slow, and imports are normal. Policy - driven supply contraction expectations are strong. The fifth round of coke price increases has been implemented, but downstream steel mills are resistant to further increases [9][11]. - **Price Analysis**: From a valuation perspective, coal prices are affected by both the market and policy. From a spread perspective, it shows a pattern of weak current situation and strong future expectations [9][11]. 3.2.2 PX - **Supply - Demand Changes**: Supply increases due to device restarts, while demand decreases. The supply - demand structure is gradually becoming balanced, and the downward trend in spot prices and the pressure on the futures market are evident [12]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold shows a slight increase due to weak non - farm data, and silver rebounds slightly. The trend intensity of both is relatively weak [20][23]. 3.2.4 Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventories increase, and prices are under pressure. Trump's tariff policy on copper products and the suspension of a Chilean copper mine's operation have an impact on the market [25]. - **Zinc**: The market is in a weak and volatile state, affected by factors such as inventory changes and macro - news [28]. - **Lead**: Inventory decreases, and prices are supported [32]. - **Tin**: The market is in a range - bound state, and the trend intensity is slightly bearish [34]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is in a range - bound state, alumina shows a slight decline, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [42]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market has intensified long - short competition and narrow - range fluctuations. Stainless steel is dragged down by supply - demand realities, but raw material costs limit the downside [46]. 3.2.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market is in a wide - range fluctuation state, and resource - side disturbances have not been resolved [51]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a weak fundamental situation, and polysilicon is affected by more news disturbances [55]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is in a volatile and repeated state [59]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by sector sentiment, they are in a wide - range fluctuation state, and the supply - demand situation and macro - policies have an impact on the market [62]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Affected by market information, they are in a wide - range fluctuation state. The cost and price of raw materials and market transactions have an impact on the market [67]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They are expected to be volatile and bullish, with supply contraction expectations and price increases [72]. - **Log**: The market is in a volatile and repeated state [76].

坚持改革创新营造市场化法治化国际化一流营商环境 市领导边立明、张锐、江智涛参加。 相关附件 在广州市公安局护航经济服务高质量发展工作领导小组办公室，郭永航听取我市涉企案件办理情况汇 报，强调要坚持政治效果、法律效果、社会效果有机统一，加强公检法等部门协同联动，严格规范涉企 执法，促进企业合规建设，依法平等保护企业和企业家合法权益，进一步提振企业信心、稳定市场预 期。在粤港澳大湾区国际商务与数字经济仲裁中心，详细了解中心建设和业务发展情况，强调要加大改 革创新力度，加强与港澳交流、国际交流合作，打造一批涉外仲裁标杆项目，探索建立全面接轨国际的 仲裁机制和规则，不断提高公信力影响力，加快建设国际一流仲裁机构。在广州12345政府服务热线受 理中心，实地了解服务热线业务办理和数智化升级情况，听取穗@i企平台建设和惠企政策兑现等工作 情况，要求积极运用人工智能等技术提升政务服务效能，用好穗@i企平台打造惠企政策超市，让企业 一目了然、直达快享，进一步提高政策知晓率、兑现率，推进实现从"企业找政策"到"政策找企业"，持 续提升企业和群众获得感。 郭永航强调，营造市场化、法治化、国际化一流营商环境，是落实习近平总书记、党 ...

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金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 8 月 6 日 | | 期指：上涨后的震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 毛磊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | maolei@gtht.com | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4103.45 | ↑0.80 | | 3069.3 | | | | | | IF2508 | 4095 | ↑0.86 | -8.45 | 266 | 21739 | ↑1063 | 40900 | ↓262 | | IF2509 | 4082 | ↑0.84 | -21.45 | 554.2 | 45420 | ↑684 | 147312 | ↑504 | | IF2512 | 4051 | ↑0.85 | -52.45 | 123.1 | 10162 | ↑ ...

2025 年 8 月 6 日 螺纹钢：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 热轧卷板：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 来源：Mysteel，同花顺，国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 7 月 31 日钢联周度数据：产量方面，螺纹-0.9 万吨，热卷+5.3 万吨，五大品种合计+0.65 万吨；总 库存方面，螺纹+7.65 万吨，热卷+2.79 万吨，五大品种合计+15.39 万吨；表需方面，螺-13.17 万吨，热 卷-8.31 万吨，五大品种合计-15.9 万吨。（数据来源：上海钢联） 【中共中央政治局:依法依规治理企业无房竞争。推进重点行业产能治理】会议指出要坚定不移深化改 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 | 3,233 | 44 ...