Domestic News - The Ministry of Transport forecasts that from October 1 to 8, 2025, the total inter-regional population flow is expected to reach 2.432 billion, averaging 304 million per day, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% compared to the 2024 National Day holiday [1] - On October 8, the national railway is expected to experience a peak in return passenger flow, with an estimated 21.75 million passengers sent and 2,189 additional passenger trains planned [1] - The China-Europe Railway Express has surpassed 3,000 trips this year, achieving this milestone 39 days earlier than last year, with the latest train carrying automotive parts and daily necessities departing from Inner Mongolia [1] - As of October 8, the total box office for the 2025 National Day film season has exceeded 1.8 billion yuan, with "The Volunteer Army: Blood and Peace," "731," and "Assassination Novelist 2" ranking in the top three [1] International News - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered the official cash rate by 50 basis points from 3.0% to 2.5% to address economic weakness [3] - Germany's industrial output fell by 4.3% month-on-month in August, marking the largest decline since March 2022, with the automotive sector's production decreasing by 18.5% [3] - The spot price of gold has surpassed $4,000 per ounce, reaching a new historical high of $4,039.18, with a 1.38% increase [3] - As of October 7, the December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $4,004.4 per ounce, setting a new closing record, driven by increased risk aversion due to the U.S. government shutdown and political changes in France and Japan [3] Company News - Tesla has launched new versions of its best-selling models, the Model 3 and Model Y, priced below $40,000 to counter the impact of the cancellation of U.S. electric vehicle subsidies, with starting prices of $36,990 and $39,990 respectively, representing a decrease of approximately 13% and 11% from higher-end versions [4] - Following the release of the new models, Tesla's stock price dropped over 4%, resulting in a market capitalization loss of $65 billion [4] - Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare reported a 1.4% year-on-year decrease in real wage income for August after adjusting for rising prices and rents [4] - The Tokyo Shoko Research Institute reported that the number of bankrupt companies in Japan reached 5,172 in the first half of the 2025 fiscal year, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, marking the highest level since the 2013 fiscal year [4]

Core Insights - Spot gold prices surpassed $4000 per ounce, reaching a historic high on October 8 [1] - As of the close on October 7, December gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange settled at $4004.4 per ounce, marking a 0.71% increase from the previous trading day [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 gold price forecast from $4300 to $4900 per ounce, citing strong inflows into Western market ETFs and anticipated continued purchases by central banks [1] Group 1 - The U.S. federal government "shutdown" has heightened risk aversion among investors, contributing to the rise in gold prices [3] - Political instability in countries like France and Japan has increased investor concerns, further driving up gold prices [3] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also surged, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at 1165 yuan per gram and Chow Tai Fook's at 1162 yuan per gram [3]

Core Viewpoint - The strong buying from various funds has led to a rapid increase in gold prices, with spot gold prices surpassing $4000 per ounce for the first time on October 8, 2023, marking a year-to-date increase of over 53% [1][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - On October 8, spot gold reached a peak of $4049.6 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures hit $4071.5 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 47% [1][5]. - The price of gold has surged by $1000 in just over six months, from $3000 per ounce in March to over $4000 in October [5][10]. - The gold price has shown significant volatility, with notable increases in September, where it broke through several key levels, including $3500, $3600, $3700, and $3800 [9][10]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to strong buying from three main groups: increasing Western ETF positions, potential acceleration of purchases by central banks, and rising speculative positions [2][3]. - China's central bank has continued to increase its gold reserves, reaching 7406 million ounces by the end of September, marking the 11th consecutive month of increases [2]. - Domestic gold ETFs in China have also seen significant inflows, with notable amounts recorded in various funds, indicating strong local demand [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about gold's upward momentum, citing central bank purchases as a directional support, even if the absolute quantity of purchases has slowed [3]. - Bridgewater Associates' founder, Ray Dalio, suggests that investors should hold a larger percentage of their portfolios in gold, viewing it as a safer asset compared to the dollar [3]. - Noan Fund anticipates a continued long-term upward trend for gold prices, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and increased central bank purchases [3].

Core Insights - Spot gold prices surpassed $4000 per ounce, reaching a historic high on October 8 [1] - As of the close on October 7, December gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange settled at $4004.4 per ounce, marking a 0.71% increase from the previous trading day [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 gold price forecast from $4300 to $4900 per ounce, citing strong inflows into ETFs and continued central bank purchases [1] Market Dynamics - The U.S. federal government "shutdown" has heightened risk aversion among investors, contributing to the rise in gold prices [3] - Political instability in countries like France and Japan has further fueled investor concerns, leading to an increase in gold prices [3] Domestic Impact - The recent surge in international gold prices has led to a corresponding increase in domestic gold jewelry prices [3] - As of now, the price of pure gold jewelry from Chow Sang Sang has reached 1165 RMB per gram, while Chow Tai Fook's pure gold jewelry is priced at 1162 RMB per gram [3]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.2%, Nasdaq down 0.67%, and S&P 500 down 0.38% [2] - Popular tech stocks mostly declined, with Tesla dropping over 4% and Google down over 1%, while AMD and Intel saw gains of over 3% and 1% respectively [2] - The cryptocurrency sector and semiconductor equipment and materials faced significant declines, with Strategy down over 8% and ASML down nearly 4% [2] - Coal and consumer goods sectors saw gains, with Estee Lauder up over 4% and Procter & Gamble up over 1% [2] Chinese Market Performance - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 2.24%, with major Chinese concept stocks experiencing declines, including Century Internet down over 6% and Baidu down over 4% [3] Commodity Market - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.79% to $4007.9 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell by 1.64% to $47.655 per ounce [4] - WTI crude oil futures increased by 0.06% to $61.73 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.03% to $65.45 per barrel [5] French Bond Market - The French bond market faced severe sell-offs amid political turmoil, with the yield on 10-year French bonds exceeding 3.6%, nearing levels seen during the 2011 European debt crisis [6] - The spread between French and German bond yields widened to over 89 basis points, the highest level this year [6] Global Market Sentiment - The overseas market showed strong performance during the holiday period, with notable gains in the technology and semiconductor sectors, driven by positive sentiment towards AI demand [10] - Gold prices surged due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties, reflecting strong demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [10][11] - The U.S. labor market data showed a decrease in private sector employment, leading to increased bets on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10] Future Market Predictions - The domestic commodity market is expected to see strong performance post-holiday, particularly in precious metals and non-ferrous metals, driven by external market trends and domestic demand recovery [12][15] - The outlook for black metals and construction materials is positive, supported by seasonal demand and low valuations [15] - Agricultural products are expected to show mixed performance, with corn potentially continuing its upward trend while other commodities may face downward pressure due to international oil prices [15]

基于各国央行预计将持续增持黄金，以及个人投资者对黄金的大力买入。10月7日，高盛将2026年12月 黄金价格预期从每盎司4300美元上调至每盎司4900美元。 金价方面，2025年黄金价格接连突破3300、3500、3800美元关口，不断刷新创历史高位。如今COMEX 黄金期货价格最高触及4000.1美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅超过44%。现货黄金价格累计涨幅已达1300美 元/盎司，大涨超50%。 国庆假期接近尾声，国际金价触及4000美元/盎司。 10月7日，COMEX黄金期货价格最高触及4000.1美元/盎司，截至发稿，纽约期金涨幅收窄至0.15%左 右，报3982.2美元/盎司，年初至今涨超44%。 分析人士认为，美国政府"停摆"引发的避险情绪升温，黄金配置需求再度被推高。受金价持续走高影 响，周一相关港股集体走强。截至10月6日收盘，紫金黄金国际涨8.2%，山东黄金涨5.2%，赤峰黄金涨 4.8%。 高盛在近期发布的报告中提到，近期金价上涨主要反应了三大"坚定买方"加大购买黄金：快速增长的西 方ETF仓位、各国央行可能重新加速购买，以及投机仓位的提升。尤其是西方黄金ETF的配置在九月份 意外强劲。 国内 ...

金价飙升的三大推手 1. 避险情绪高涨：近期，美国联邦政府陷入"停摆"，这一政治风险事件引发了市场对美国经济前景的担忧，促使投资者转向黄金寻求避险。同时，法国爆发 政治危机等地缘政治局势的动荡，也加剧了市场的担忧情绪，进一步推高了黄金需求。 2. 美联储降息预期：市场普遍预期美联储将在本月晚些时候的会议上降息25个基点，并且预计在12月可能再次降息。降息会降低持有黄金（这种不产生利息 的资产）的机会成本，同时可能导致美元走弱，这些因素都对以美元计价的黄金价格构成利好。 3. 资金持续流入：全球央行近年来持续购入黄金，为其上涨奠定了基调。数据显示，中国央行在9月份仍在增持黄金，为连续第11个月增持。与此同时，散 户和机构投资者也通过黄金ETF大举入场，数据显示，9月份黄金ETF录得三年来最大的单月资金流入。这背后反映的不仅是避险，更是全球资金从其他资 产向黄金进行重新配置的深远趋势。 对金价的后市展望 对金价未来的走势，市场分析机构整体偏向乐观，但也提示了短期内的波动风险。 · 机构观点整体偏多： Spand yasan 87 SSEE t of the count of the country of the ...

Group 1 - The spot gold price surpassed $4000 per ounce on October 8, reaching a historic high, with December futures closing at $4004.4 per ounce, up 0.71% from the previous trading day [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 gold price forecast from $4300 to $4900 per ounce, citing strong inflows into Western market ETFs and expected continued purchases by central banks [1] Group 2 - Analysts believe that the U.S. federal government "shutdown" has heightened risk aversion, contributing to the rise in gold prices [3] - Political changes in countries like France and Japan have increased investor concerns, further driving up gold prices [3] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also surged, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at 1165 yuan per gram and Chow Tai Fook's at 1162 yuan per gram [3]

来源：环球时报 综合法新社、路透社报道，10月8日，现货黄金价格突破每盎司4000美元大关，创历史新高。 分析人士认为，美国联邦政府"停摆"引发避险情绪升温，助推金价走势。此外，法国、日本等国的政坛 变动加剧投资者担忧，推动金价上涨。 今年3月13日，美国纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格突破每盎司3000美元。 来源 | 央视新闻 此外，截至美东时间7日收盘时，美国纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价报每盎司4004.4美元，刷新收盘历 史纪录，较前一交易日上涨0.71%。 ...

10月8日，现货黄金突破4000美元/盎司大关，续创新高，年内大涨近1400美元/盎司涨幅超52%。前一日，美国纽 约商品交易所黄金期货价格盘中一度突破每盎司4000美元。这是黄金首次突破这一整数价格关口。 10月8日早盘，黄金期现货集体走高，现货黄金一度突破4000美元/盎司，续创历史新高；COMEX黄金期货持续走 高，现报4021.9美元/盎司。 受此影响，国内品牌金饰克价首次突破1150元大关。10月7日，周大福、周大生、潮宏基等品牌足金饰品挂牌价为 1155元/克，较10月1日上调约26元/克。而周生生挂牌价为1157元/克。 分析人士认为，美国联邦政府"停摆"引发避险情绪升温，助推金价走势。此外，法国、日本等国的政坛变动加剧 投资者担忧，推动金价上涨。 文/北京青年报记者 张鑫 ...