Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%[4] - In August 2025, non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, significantly lower than the 142,000 in August 2024[4] - The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.2% in July to 4.3% in August 2025, compared to 4.2% in August 2024[4] Inflation Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year increased by 2.9% in August 2025, while core CPI rose by 3.1%[4] - In August 2024, CPI was up 2.5% and core CPI was 3.2%, indicating a similar inflation level but with different trends[6] - Core CPI has shown a rising trend from 2.8% in April 2025 to 3.1% in August 2025, contrasting with the declining trend observed in 2024[8] Market Reactions and Policy Implications - The cautious 25 basis point cut reflects a shift towards signaling rather than aggressive policy changes[16] - Concerns over rising tariffs announced by President Trump may further increase inflation, complicating the Fed's decision-making[4] - The market's reaction to the rate cut was stable, with no significant fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, indicating investor caution[4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while in the short - term, London gold and silver may enter an adjustment phase. The support for London gold is lowered to 3600, with strong support at 3500, and resistance at 3650 and 3700. The support for London silver is 41, with strong support at 40.5, and the upper resistance levels are 42, 43, and the 44 - 45 area. The operation strategy is to maintain the idea of buying on dips, and those who hold previous long positions should hold them cautiously [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, precious metal prices showed mixed performance. London spot gold slightly declined, while spot silver, platinum, and palladium slightly increased. The precious metal market is in a bullish vacuum period after the Fed's interest rate cut, and may enter a phased consolidation stage. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3678.2 per ounce, down 1.07%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $42.1 per ounce, down 0.12%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 826.82 yuan per gram, down 1.72%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 9835 yuan per kilogram, down 1.94%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years, causing precious metals to fall. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly increased. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 91.9%. For December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 0.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 15.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 83.9%. For January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 8.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 50.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 40.9%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 975.66 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 15.53 tons to 15,205.14 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 17.9 tons to 1203.5 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 4.1 tons to 1252.4 tons as of the week ending September 12 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week's data is generally light. On Friday, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision [4]. 3.4 Precious Metal Price and Inventory Data - Precious metal price data shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various precious metal contracts. Inventory data shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, as well as the holdings of relevant ETFs [5][16]. 3.5 Other Market Data - Other market data includes the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [20].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has announced a slowdown in its quantitative tightening (QT) measures, reducing the planned bond sales from £100 billion to £70 billion over the next 12 months, which is less than market expectations, signaling a cautious approach to monetary policy [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to maintain the base interest rate at 4%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The adjustment in bond sales will see a shift in the structure, with short, medium, and long-term bonds being sold in a ratio of 40:40:20, aimed at alleviating pressure on the long-term bond market [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the yield on 30-year UK government bonds rose from 5.434% to 5.496%, indicating a market response to the reduced QT pace [2] - The pound against the dollar fell by 0.53%, closing at 1.3550, reflecting market sentiment after the Bank of England's decision [2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Bank of England has slightly revised its third-quarter economic growth forecast from 0.3% to 0.4% [1] - Inflation expectations remain uncertain, with the central bank projecting a peak inflation rate of 4% this month, gradually declining to the 2% target by the second quarter of 2027 [2] - Market expectations for further interest rate cuts have only modestly increased, with traders estimating a 37% probability for this year [2]

Group 1 - The Bank of England maintained the policy interest rate at 4.00%, aligning with market expectations, with a voting outcome of 7 in favor and 2 against [2][5] - The forward guidance indicates that future rate cuts will depend on the persistence of declining inflation trends [3][6] - The pace of quantitative tightening was reduced from £100 billion to £70 billion, with unanimous support from seven members [4][6] Group 2 - The GBP/USD exchange rate showed initial gains but subsequently fell, currently reported at 1.3591, reflecting market reactions to the Bank of England's decisions [5] - Market expectations remain unchanged, with traders anticipating a 6 basis point rate cut this year and a total of 45 basis points by the end of 2026 [5] - The Bank of England's cautious stance on future rate cuts is influenced by rising concerns over inflation, which has led to reduced bets on imminent rate reductions [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The investment rating for zinc is "Weak and volatile" [1] 2. Core View - The zinc market shows a weak and volatile trend, with various indicators such as prices, trading volumes, and inventories experiencing different degrees of changes [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,045 yuan/ton, down 1.05%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,943 dollars/ton, down 1.39% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 113,236 lots, an increase of 16,982 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 14,598 lots, an increase of 3,248 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 109,570 lots, an increase of 31,476 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 213,374 lots, a decrease of 2,995 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was -60 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was 38 dollars/ton, an increase of 12 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The SHFE zinc futures inventory was 54,241 tons, an increase of 1,521 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 48,825 tons, a decrease of 150 tons [1] 3.2 News - The Bank of England maintained the interest rate unchanged and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening to 70 billion pounds, while being cautious about further interest rate cuts this year due to concerns about inflation rebound [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is -1, indicating a weak trend [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - Gold: The FOMC meeting was in line with expectations. [2] - Silver: It will undergo a volatile adjustment. [2][5] - Copper: The increase in domestic spot premiums restricts price declines. [2][10] - Zinc: It will experience a weak and volatile trend. [2][13] - Lead: The decrease in inventory supports the price. [2][16] - Tin: It will trade within a range. [2][19] - Aluminum: It will trade within a range. [2][24] - Alumina: The oversupply situation persists. [2][24] - Cast aluminum alloy: There is cost support. [2][24] - Nickel: The contradictions in the smelting end are not prominent. Attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the ore end. [2][27] - Stainless steel: There is a game between long - and short - term logics, and the steel price may fluctuate. [2][27] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Gold - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 yesterday was 824.10, with a daily decline of 1.31%, and the night - session closing price was 828.08, with a decline of 0.71%. The trend strength is 0. [5][8] - **Macroeconomic News**: The Bank of England maintained interest rates and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years. Overseas investors' holdings of US Treasury bonds reached a new high in July. [5][9] Silver - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 yesterday was 9808, with a daily decline of 0.97%, and the night - session closing price was 9902.00, with a decline of 0.06%. The trend strength is 0. [5][8] - **Macroeconomic News**: Similar to gold, including the Bank of England's decision, US jobless claims, and US Treasury bond holdings. [5][9] Base Metals Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 79,580, with a daily decline of 1.22%, and the night - session closing price was 79660, with an increase of 0.10%. The trend strength is 0. [10][12] - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped significantly. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is still shut down for rescue. Panama will negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the resumption of the CP copper mine. Codelco and Escondida's copper production increased year - on - year in July. China's copper production is expected to decline in September. [10][12] Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22045, with a decline of 1.05%. The trend strength is - 1. [13][15] - **News**: The Bank of England maintained interest rates and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening. [14] Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17145, with an increase of 0.26%. The trend strength is 0. [16][17] - **News**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped significantly. [17] Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 269,100, with a decline of 1.26%, and the night - session closing price was 267,840, with a decline of 0.89%. The trend strength is 0. [20][23] - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, including Bank of England's decision, US jobless claims, and other news. [21][22] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20785, down 125. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2931, down 6. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20320, down 140. The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0. [24][26] - **News**: Overseas investors' holdings of US Treasury bonds reached a new high in July. [26] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,940, down 850. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,875, down 60. The trend strength of nickel and stainless steel is 0. [27][33] - **Industry News**: The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage. Environmental violations were found in the IMIP. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period. The approved RKAB production in 2025 is higher than in 2024. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia have suspended production. Indonesian mining companies need to resubmit the 2026 RKAB. A steel mill in Shandong has started maintenance. The Indonesian president will punish illegal mining. The Indonesian forestry working group has taken over a nickel - mining area. [27][32]

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no specific information about the overall industry investment ratings in the report. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged. Although the Fed cut interest rates as expected, there are contradictions in the outlook. Gold prices are at a historical high, with short - term high - level oscillations and a medium - term bullish trend. Silver follows gold and is recommended to be observed [4]. - For various commodities, different trading strategies are proposed based on their market performance, fundamentals, and supply - demand relationships, such as going long on aluminum at dips, observing for zinc, going long on lead at dips, etc. [3][5] Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: The price is at a high level. The de - dollarization logic persists, and with the Fed's interest - rate cut, it is expected to have short - term high - level oscillations and a medium - term upward trend. Domestic gold ETF funds continue to flow in, and inventories in some exchanges increase [4]. - **Silver**: Follows the trend of gold and is recommended to be observed. Global silver ETF holdings decrease [4]. Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract drops. The supply side maintains high - load production, and the demand side shows continuous warming. After the interest - rate cut and inventory de - stocking difficulties, the price has a phased decline. It is recommended to go long at dips considering future demand. The price of the alumina main contract also drops. The supply is in a high - production state, and the demand comes from electrolytic aluminum plants. Due to the supply - demand surplus pattern, it is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and it is recommended to observe [3]. - **Zinc**: The price of the main contract drops. Supply - side disturbances increase, but overall supply is abundant. Consumption is "not in the peak - season", and inventories continue to accumulate. It is recommended to observe [3][5]. - **Lead**: The price of the main contract rises slightly. Supply is regionally tightened, and consumption is expected to increase. Inventories show a small accumulation, but spot circulation is tight. It is recommended to go long at dips [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price drops. Supply increases, and both social and warehouse inventories start to accumulate. Demand is at a relatively high level this year. The market is in a long - short game regarding policies, and it is expected to oscillate within a certain range. It is recommended to observe [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract price drops. Supply is increasing, and demand from the energy - storage and new - energy vehicle sectors is strong. It is expected to de - stock, and the price is expected to oscillate within a certain range. It is recommended to observe [5]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract price drops. Supply is stable, and inventories start to accumulate. Demand in the photovoltaic industry is weak. The market is in a game regarding policies, and it is expected to oscillate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the 11 - 12 reverse - spread opportunity [5]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract drops. Steel demand shows seasonal marginal improvement with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to hold short positions in the rebar 2601 contract [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract drops. Iron ore supply - demand is neutral to strong. It is recommended to observe [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract drops. Supply - side inventories are differentiated, and the futures are over - valued. It is recommended to observe [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The price of CBOT soybeans drops. Global supply is expected to be loose, and demand shows a structural differentiation. Short - term domestic and foreign markets are differentiated, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [7]. - **Corn**: The 2511 contract is weakly running. Imported grain auctions increase supply, and new - crop production is expected to increase. The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [8]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract price drops. Brazilian sugar production is high, and the domestic sugarcane growing situation varies by region. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. - **Cotton**: The price of the US cotton futures drops, and the domestic cotton futures are weakly oscillating. It is recommended to observe within a certain price range [8]. - **Log**: The 09 contract price drops. Port inventories are stable, and downstream demand has not improved. It is recommended to observe [8]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of Malaysian palm oil drops. Supply is in a seasonal increase cycle, and demand shows a certain increase. Near - term inventories are accumulating, and there is a seasonal production - reduction expectation in the long - term. The short - term is restricted by international oils, and it is recommended to pay attention to production and bio - diesel policies [8]. - **Egg**: The 2511 contract oscillates narrowly, and the spot price drops. Supply is sufficient, and demand may increase seasonally. The futures are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short - term [8]. - **Live Pig**: The 2511 contract continues to decline, and the spot price drops. Supply is abundant in the near - term and expected to decrease in the long - term. It is recommended to continue the reverse - spread strategy [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price drops slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is improving. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. It is recommended to short at high prices or conduct a reverse - spread operation [10]. - **PVC**: The 01 contract price is flat. Supply - demand is in a weak balance, and inventories are at a new high. It is recommended to observe [10]. - **Rubber**: The price of the main contract drops. Raw material prices fluctuate, and downstream enterprise operating rates change slightly. The market is in an oscillating state under the situation of strong reality and weak expectation [10]. - **Glass**: The 01 contract price drops. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and inventories are decreasing. Downstream demand shows seasonal improvement. It is recommended to go long at dips [10][11]. - **PP**: The main contract price drops slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the peak - season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. It is recommended to short at high prices or conduct a reverse - spread operation [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: The price drops. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to short at high prices [11]. - **Styrene**: The main contract price drops. Supply inventories are at a normal - to - high level, and demand is in the peak - season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. It is recommended to short at high prices or short the styrene profit [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The 01 contract price drops. Supply is in the high - production season, and inventories are rising. Supply - demand is in a weak balance. It is recommended to observe [11][12]. - **Caustic Soda**: The 01 contract price rises. Supply - demand is relatively healthy. It is recommended to go long [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - The overall market shows a complex situation with various factors influencing different sectors. The Fed's interest rate cuts, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics in different industries all play important roles in determining the market trends. For example, in the stock index futures market, the A - share market shows a trend of rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon after overseas interest rate cuts; in the bond market, the situation is still intertwined with multiple factors; and in the commodity market, different commodities have different supply - demand and price trends [2][6][17]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, the major A - share indexes rose in the morning and fell in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.15%, and most sectors and stocks declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also fell, and the 09 contracts are about to expire with the basis close to neutral [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, the Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as TikTok. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and inflation is still relatively high [3]. - **Funding**: On September 18, the A - share trading volume increased significantly, and the central bank conducted a net injection of 1950 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the Fed's interest rate cut and the approaching holiday, it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [4]. Treasury Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted a net injection of 1950 billion yuan, but the tightness of the inter - bank market funds did not change significantly. The influence of the tax period has not completely subsided, and the central bank's hedging efforts at the end of the quarter need to be concerned [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market is still intertwined with multiple factors. It is recommended to operate within the range, and be cautious about chasing up in the short term [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Trump proposed to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and the US Supreme Court temporarily froze a relevant ruling. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate unchanged, slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening, and limited long - term bond sales [7]. - **Market Performance**: The market digested the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut, the risk appetite increased, the US stocks strengthened, and gold continued to decline slightly. The international silver price rebounded and rose [9]. - **Outlook**: The Fed's policy path has dual characteristics, which may suppress the US dollar index. Gold may enter a high - level shock consolidation, and it is recommended to buy at low prices below 3600 US dollars. Silver is expected to be boosted by various factors, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options at high prices [9][11]. - **Funding**: The positions of gold and silver ETFs remain high, but some institutions have taken profits [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of September 18, the freight quotes for Shanghai - European basic ports in the next 6 weeks are provided by different shipping companies [12]. - **Index**: As of September 15, the SCFIS European Line Index fell by 8.06%, and the US West Line Index rose by 37.67%. As of September 12, the SCFI Composite Index fell by 3.21% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased by 7.5% year - on - year. The eurozone's August composite PMI was 51, and the US August manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [12]. - **Logic**: The futures market was weakly volatile, and the spot inflection point is expected to appear in mid - to - late October. It is possible to pay attention to the upward opportunities of the 12 and 02 contracts in November [13]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The market is bearish, and it is possible to consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage [13]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of September 19, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the downstream procurement volume increased with improved spot trading [13]. - **Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and the previous loose trading may end. Attention should be paid to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading [14]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. The domestic electrolytic copper production in August decreased slightly month - on - month and increased year - on - year. It is expected to decrease in September due to factors such as maintenance and supply shortage [14]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod production increased after the copper price callback, but the downstream terminal demand for copper prices above 80,000 yuan is weak [15]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventories decreased, while domestic social inventories and COMEX copper inventories increased [16]. - **Logic**: After the FOMC meeting, the copper price oscillated. The previous loose trading may end, and the market may switch to recovery trading. The supply - demand situation is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides support, and in the short - term, the copper price may be strongly oscillated [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [17]. Alumina - **Spot**: On September 18, the spot prices of alumina in different regions decreased, and the supply pattern was gradually relaxed with a downward trend in prices [18]. - **Supply**: In August, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased, and the operating capacity is expected to continue to increase slightly in September. However, some enterprises were affected by factors such as production restrictions and maintenance [19]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, the port inventory decreased, and the registered quantity of warehouse receipts increased [19]. - **Logic**: The alumina futures price oscillated at the bottom. The market is in a situation of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The supply in Guinea has more disturbing factors, which provides short - term support, but the overall supply is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [20]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 2900 - 3200 yuan, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 yuan [20]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On September 18, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the trading activity increased with a rising trend in the premium [21]. - **Supply**: In August, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the proportion of aluminum water increased, reflecting the consumption resilience [22]. - **Demand**: The downstream is in the transition stage between the off - season and the peak season, and the operating rates of some industries have recovered [22]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, the domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory increased [23]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest rate cut and the strengthening of the US dollar index put pressure on the aluminum price. The domestic economic recovery provides support for aluminum demand, but the upward push of macro - factors has weakened. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains high, and the demand improvement needs to be further observed. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [24]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 20,600 - 21,000 yuan [24]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On September 18, the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased [25]. - **Supply**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the operating rate is expected to increase slightly in September [25]. - **Demand**: In August, the terminal demand for cast aluminum alloy was weak, and it showed a marginal improvement in September [26]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, the social inventory increased, and some areas were close to full capacity [26]. - **Logic**: The cast aluminum alloy futures price oscillated and fell. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which supports the price. The terminal orders are slightly improving, and the pre - holiday stocking demand will support the spot price. It is expected that the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [27]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan. If the short - term upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is strong, it is possible to consider the long - AD short - AL spread arbitrage when the spread is above 500 [28]. Zinc - **Spot**: On September 18, the average price of 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the market trading was light [28]. - **Supply**: The processing fees of zinc concentrate increased, and the production of refined zinc increased. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production will decrease slightly in September [29]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries generally increased in the peak season, but the procurement was mainly for rigid demand, and the domestic spot premium was at a low level [30]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [31]. - **Logic**: The zinc price is affected by the expectation of loose supply. The demand in the peak season is fair, and the domestic and foreign markets show differentiation. The upward space is limited, and the downward space is also restricted by factors such as low inventory. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [32]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [32]. Tin - **Spot**: On September 18, the price of 1 tin decreased, and the spot market trading improved slightly [33]. - **Supply**: The domestic tin ore imports in July decreased, and the supply from Africa and Myanmar decreased. The tin ingot imports increased [33][34]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of the solder industry increased in August, but the overall market is still in a state of "weak supply and demand". Attention should be paid to the demand performance in the "Golden September and Silver October" [34]. - **Inventory**: As of September 17, the LME inventory remained unchanged, the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory increased [35]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest rate cut and the strengthening of the US dollar index put pressure on the tin price. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; otherwise, it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan [36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 265,000 - 285,000 yuan [36]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of September 18, the average price of electrolytic nickel decreased [37]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level and is expected to increase slightly [37]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and stainless steel is general, the demand for alloys is good, and the price of nickel sulfate has risen strongly in the short - term but may face pressure in the medium - term [37]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory is at a relatively high level, the domestic social inventory increased, and the bonded area inventory decreased [38]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest rate cut did not bring unexpected benefits, and the macro - environment is weak. The supply of nickel ore is generally stable, and the price of nickel iron is strong. The stainless steel demand is weak, and the nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 120,000 - 125,000 yuan [40]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of September 18, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in some regions decreased [40]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of nickel iron is strong. The cost of chromium ore provides support, and the price of chromium iron has risen [40]. - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel is expected to increase in September, mainly in the 300 - series [41]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is decreasing slowly, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased [41]. - **Logic**: The stainless steel price oscillated narrowly. The macro - environment is improving, but the peak - season demand has not been fully realized. The cost provides support, and the inventory pressure has eased. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,800 - 13,400 yuan [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference range for the main contract is 12,800 - 13,400 yuan [42]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of September 18, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly, and the market was relatively calm [43]. - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate increased in August and continued to increase in the week of September 18. The supply is affected by new projects, lithium feldspar processing, and imports [44]. - **Demand**: The demand is relatively optimistic, and the seasonal performance is not obvious. The orders of battery cells are generally good, and the demand in September and October is expected to increase [44][45]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased in the previous week, with the inventory of smelters decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [45]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest rate cut did not bring unexpected benefits, and the domestic policy has been digested. The supply - demand situation is in a tight balance. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [46]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The reference price range for the main contract is 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [46]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The steel price decreased, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar converged [47]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of raw materials is affected by production restrictions and supply recovery expectations. The profit of steel products has declined significantly since August, and the current profit ranking is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [47]. - **Supply**: The production of iron elements from January to August increased year - on - year, and it is expected to continue to increase in the first nine months. The production of rebar decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils remained high [47]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of the five major steel products from January to August was basically flat year - on - year, and the demand in August - September decreased seasonally. The supply of rebar decreased and the demand increased, while the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased [47]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products has increased since August, mainly due to the increase in rebar inventory. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [48]. - **View**: The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory is slowly increasing. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 3100 - 3350 yuan for rebar and 3300 - 3500 yuan for hot - rolled coils. It is recommended to hold long positions at low prices and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of demand [49]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of September 18, the price of mainstream iron ore powders changed slightly [50]. - **Futures**: The 2601 and 2605 contracts of iron ore decreased slightly [50]. - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties is positive [51]. - **Demand**: As of September 18, the daily average pig iron output, blast furnace operating rate, and capacity utilization rate increased slightly, while the steel mill profitability decreased slightly [52]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment increased significantly last week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The monthly import volume increased [53]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, the daily average port clearance volume increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [53]. - **View**: The iron ore market is in a tight - balanced situation. The supply is expected to change, and the demand is supported by the relatively high pig iron output. It is recommended to view the market as oscillating and bullish, with a reference range of 780 - 850 yuan. It is recommended to go long on the 26

Group 1: UK Monetary Policy - The Bank of England maintains the benchmark interest rate at 4%, with a 7:2 vote in favor, indicating a dovish stance among some members who support a 25 basis point cut [2] - The quantitative tightening scale is reduced from £100 billion to £70 billion, effective from October [2] - Inflation remains a concern, with August inflation at 3.8%, nearly double the target, and expected to reach 4% this month [3] Group 2: Japan's Economic Indicators - Japan's core CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year as of August, still above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, but marking the lowest increase in nine months [3] - The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates stable at 0.5% during its upcoming meeting [3] Group 3: Russia's Tax Policy - President Putin announces tax increases to address budget deficits, raising corporate tax from 20% to 25% starting January 1, 2025, and implementing a progressive personal income tax system [3] - The government plans to increase VAT from 20% to 22% by 2026 to counteract declining energy revenues and rising defense spending [3] Group 4: US Labor Market - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 231,000, marking the largest drop in nearly four years, exceeding expectations [4] - Despite the decline in initial claims, the number of continuing claims remains above 1.9 million, with the average unemployment duration extending to 24.5 weeks, the longest since April 2022 [4] Group 5: Nvidia and Intel Partnership - Nvidia announces a $5 billion investment in Intel, becoming one of its largest shareholders with over 4% ownership, aimed at joint development of PC and data center chips [6] - Following the announcement, Intel's stock rose by 22.77%, while Nvidia's increased by 3.49% [6] Group 6: Google's AI Integration - Google plans to integrate its self-developed AI model, Gemini, into the Chrome browser, enhancing user experience with features like webpage content explanation and multi-tab information integration [8] - This move is a strategic response to competition from OpenAI and other companies that have recently launched AI browser tools [8] Group 7: Microsoft's AI Data Center Investment - Microsoft announces a $7.3 billion investment in Wisconsin to build two AI data centers, deploying tens of thousands of Nvidia GPUs, significantly enhancing computational power [8] - This investment is seen as a critical step for Microsoft to strengthen its AI infrastructure amid competition from OpenAI and Oracle [8] Group 8: SoftBank's Vision Fund Restructuring - SoftBank confirms a 20% workforce reduction in its Vision Fund, marking the third round of layoffs since 2022 [9] - This restructuring follows a record quarterly investment return of ¥726.8 billion, indicating a strategic shift towards AI investments, including a planned $500 billion project [9] Group 9: Hyundai's Production Strategy - Hyundai adjusts its production strategy in response to US tariffs, lowering its operating profit margin target from 7%-8% to 6%-7% due to a loss of 4.248 billion won from tariffs [10] - The company anticipates a recovery in profit margins by 2027, aiming for 7%-8% and 8%-9% by 2030 [10]

【资讯导读】 ·人民币保持全球第六大最活跃货币的位置 ·美国上周初请失业金人数回落至23.1万人 ·英伟达宣布50亿美元入股英特尔 ·特朗普反对英国承认巴勒斯坦国计划 ·英国央行维持基准利率不变 【市场资讯】 ·环球银行金融电信协会（Swift）数据显示，2025年8月，在基于金额统计的全球支付货币排名中，人民 币保持全球第六大最活跃货币的位置，占比2.93%。 ·美国财政部数据显示，中国7月持有的美国国债为7310亿美元，6月为7560亿美元。日本7月持有的美国 国债为1.151万亿美元，6月为1.148万亿美元。英国7月持有的美国国债为8990亿美元，6月为8580亿美 元。 ·美国上周初请失业金人数回落至23.1万人，预期24万人。尽管首次申请失业救济人数回落，持续申请人 数仍维持在190万人这一关键水平之上，显示劳动力市场仍面临一定?力。 ·英伟达宣布50亿美元入股英特尔，英特尔将为英伟达定制x86CPU。 ·美国总统特朗普和英国首相斯塔默签署美英科技合作协议。英国政府表示，美国科技公司对英国的投 资可能帮助英国创造超过5000个工作岗位。 ·美国总统特朗普18日在英国首相乡村官邸契克斯别墅会晤英国首 ...