Workflow
金九银十
icon
Search documents
上海“沪六条”发力:新政首周成交暴涨,“金九银十”将超预期?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-03 15:42
Core Insights - The recent implementation of the "Six Policies" in Shanghai has led to a significant surge in the real estate market, with visitor numbers increasing by 26% and deposit contracts soaring by 63% [1][3] - The first-hand property transaction volume reached a nine-week high of 172,000 square meters, while the average daily transactions for second-hand properties hit 658, with weekends exceeding 904 [3] - The outer ring market has seen a remarkable increase, with daily visitor numbers rising by 40% and deposit contracts surpassing those in the city center, indicating a strong demand for improved living conditions [3][4] Market Drivers - Three key drivers are identified: the precise impact of policy changes, a shift in price expectations, and seasonal factors contributing to the traditional peak buying season [3] - The policy adjustments, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions, optimization of public housing funds, and credit support, directly address market constraints [3] - The consensus among buyers regarding the bottoming out of housing prices is strengthening, particularly with the hot sales of quality projects [3] Market Dynamics - The current demand is predominantly from buyers seeking improved living conditions, while first-time buyers remain cautious [4] - The ability of policy stimuli to sustain and stimulate a larger scale of rigid demand will determine the depth and breadth of this market cycle [4] - The heat in the outer ring area and its potential to influence the central urban areas will be crucial indicators for future market trends [4] Conclusion - The Shanghai real estate market is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by a combination of policy support and market dynamics, suggesting the potential for a healthier and more sustainable market cycle ahead [4]
铜日报:英债危机短期拉升美元指数,铜临近压力风险加剧-20250903
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 14:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the short term, the copper market may continue to fluctuate at a high level. The current price is approaching resistance, and there is a short - term need for a correction. Supply - side factors such as Chilean mine disruptions and domestic smelting maintenance expectations provide support, but the widening overseas discount and the increase in domestic social inventory suppress the upside. On the demand side, the game between the peak - season expectation and high - price suppression will dominate the price fluctuations. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut at the macro level may boost risk appetite, but the adjustment risk caused by the repeated policy expectations should be vigilant [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Main Contract and Basis On September 2, the SHFE price of the main copper futures contract rose slightly to 79,810 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day, while the LME copper price fell slightly to 9,875 dollars/ton. The spot premium and discount showed obvious differentiation. The premium of premium copper rose slightly from 300 yuan/ton to 305 yuan/ton, while the premiums of flat - water copper and wet - process copper fell by 30 yuan and 20 yuan to 135 yuan/ton and 55 yuan/ton respectively. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened further to - 86.27 dollars/ton, indicating pressure on the overseas spot end [1]. 3.1.2 Position and Trading Volume LME inventory decreased continuously, with a 3.46% decline on September 2 to 19,501 tons, hitting a recent low. SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 100 tons to 158,775 tons, but the domestic social inventory (SMM) increased to 132,100 tons due to the replenishment of imported goods. The warehouse receipts in Guangdong decreased by 699 tons in a single day, with accelerated regional destocking. However, in the North China market, due to logistics restrictions and cautious downstream purchasing at high prices, the trading activity was low [2]. 3.1.3 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile faced a short - term decline in production due to equipment failures, increasing overseas copper mine supply disturbances. Chile's copper production in July increased slightly by 0.3% year - on - year to 445,000 tons, showing that the overall supply had not significantly contracted. The domestic smelting end was about to enter the centralized maintenance period, and combined with the logistics restrictions in North China, the spot circulation volume might be tightened periodically [3]. - **Demand Side**: High - priced copper significantly suppressed consumption. In July, the air - conditioner production decreased by 14.2% month - on - month, and the white - goods production schedule in September decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, with the air - conditioner production schedule decreasing by 12% year - on - year. The terminal demand was still weak. However, under the expectation of the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the demand for copper tubes and power projects might improve marginally, and the copper tube start - up rate in September was expected to rise slightly [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The domestic social inventory increased continuously to 132,100 tons, mainly due to the arrival of imported copper. However, the visible inventories of SHFE and LME continued to decline, especially the LME inventory, which decreased by 8.9% compared with August 27, indicating a marginal tightening of overseas supply - demand. Subsequently, as the import window narrowed and the peak - season demand started, the domestic inventory pressure might gradually ease [4]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring The report provides price and inventory data for September 2, 2025, September 1, 2025, and August 27, 2025, including SMM 1 copper, spot premium and discount of different types of copper, LME (0 - 3) discount, SHFE and LME prices, and LME, SHFE, and COMEX inventories, as well as their changes and change rates [7]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On September 2, SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 699 tons to 19,501 tons, all of which were from Guangdong warehouses. The spot premium in Guangdong remained firm when the copper price rose [8]. - On September 2, Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper mine in Chile faced a temporary decline in production due to the failure of two ball mills within a week [8]. - On September 1, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.5 tons to 132,100 tons week - on - week. The inventory increase was mainly due to the continuous arrival of imported copper, and the consumption was weak due to high copper prices. In the future, SMM expected that the imported copper would continue to arrive, and the copper inventory would decrease month - on - month as the demand recovered in the "Golden September and Silver October" [8]. - On September 1, in the North China market, logistics was restricted during the Tianjin Summit, and the copper price increase suppressed downstream buying interest, resulting in low trading activity [9]. - On August 31, Chile's copper production in July increased slightly by 0.3% year - on - year to 445,214 tons [9]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [10][12][14][15][18][21][23][27][28][31][33]
多地出招,抢抓楼市金九银十
21世纪经济报道· 2025-09-03 12:50
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the launch of various real estate promotional activities in multiple Chinese cities during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October," aimed at stimulating the housing market and providing financial relief to homebuyers [1][4][9]. Group 1: Promotional Activities - Hunan Province initiated the "Anju Furong · Chang Gou Hao Fang" campaign, involving 14 cities, to offer multiple home purchase incentives [1]. - Chongqing launched an online autumn real estate and home furnishing exhibition featuring over 100 projects from 23 brands [1]. - Liaoning Province started a "Real Estate and Home Furnishing Promotion Activity" with various companies participating and offering discounts [1][4]. Group 2: Duration and Format of Events - This year's "Autumn Fair" is characterized by a longer duration and a more diverse range of participating companies compared to previous years [3][4]. - The Hunan event will last until mid-November, while the fairs in Liaoning and Chongqing will continue until the end of October [4]. Group 3: Discounts and Incentives - Many real estate companies are offering special price discounts, full payment incentives, and other promotional measures during the fairs [4][5]. - Specific incentives include a maximum subsidy of 200,000 yuan for homebuyers in Yueyang, and a 15,000 yuan voucher for full payment buyers in Changchun [5]. Group 4: Policy Support - Recent policy measures have been introduced in various cities to stabilize the housing market, including adjustments to housing fund policies and the introduction of purchase subsidies [5][8]. - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have implemented significant policy changes to stimulate demand, such as relaxing purchase restrictions and optimizing loan policies [7][8]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Analysts expect a rebound in market activity during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, driven by the combination of promotional events and supportive policies [9]. - The overall sentiment in the market is optimistic, with expectations of increased project launches and sales in core cities [9].
桐昆股份(601233):25H1业绩同比提升,看好涤丝格局持续改善
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-09-03 12:34
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 showed a slight year-on-year improvement, primarily due to an increase in the price spread of polyester filament [2][8] - The recovery in the polyester market is expected to continue, with a positive outlook for the price spread of polyester filament as downstream operations gradually recover [8][9] - The company is projected to experience significant profit growth in the coming years, with net profits expected to reach 25.56 billion, 32.57 billion, and 39.30 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 441.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.97 billion yuan, an increase of 2.93% year-on-year [1][2] - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 6.76%, up by 0.57 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 2.50%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points year-on-year [1] Market Conditions - The polyester filament price spread improved, with the POY-PX/MEG spread reaching 1436 yuan/ton in H1 2025, up by 8.88% year-on-year [2] - The company’s investment income from joint ventures and associates was 4.24 billion yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 0.18 billion yuan year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - The polyester filament industry is expected to see a slowdown in new capacity additions, with supply growth projected at only 3%, which is lower than the demand growth rate [9] - The company is expected to benefit from this supply-demand dynamic, leading to an improved industry outlook and sustained profitability [10]
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250903
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 12:17
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views -成材震荡整理运行,铝价预计短期高位震荡 [2][4] -成材价格重心持续下移,后期关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝价关注宏观情绪、矿端消息、宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情况和消费释放情况 [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨,复产时间预计在正月初十一至十六左右 [3][4] -安徽省6家短流程钢厂,1家1月5日已停产,大部分1月中旬左右停产,个别1月20日后停产,日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日,10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积223.4万平方米,环比降40.3%,同比增43.2% [4] -成材震荡下行价格创新低,供需双弱市场情绪悲观,冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 铝锭 -9月氧化铝现货价格弱势运行,运行产能预计小幅增长,铝水比例存回升预期 [4] -电解铝行业总成本变化小,行业高利润依旧 [4] -8月下旬下游周度开工率复苏迹象明显,铝型材龙头企业开工率环比升1.5个百分点至52%,铝线缆行业开工率回升至63.8% [4] -8月28日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存62.0万吨,较周一增0.4万吨,环比上周一增2.4万吨 [4] -铝锭绝对价回落,接货情绪好转,但未达大规模补库状态,累库与高铝价压制现货升水 [4]
美联储降息降至,铜偏强震荡
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 11:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been rising in August, with Powell's speech turning dovish. A September rate cut is almost certain, and the market anticipates two rate cuts this year. After Trump's intervention in the Fed's positions, the market doubts the Fed's independence, causing the US dollar index to decline. The specific magnitude of the Fed's rate cut still needs attention. The US has continued to suspend the implementation of a 24% reciprocal tariff on China for 90 days since August 12. China's August PMI data showed a slight increase, indicating a marginal improvement in economic sentiment [2][55]. - In July, China's imports of copper ore concentrates were around 2.56 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase, and port inventories of concentrates also rebounded from the bottom. After the smelter processing fees showed an upward inflection point earlier, they have continued to decline in recent periods. The sulfuric acid price has reached a high, and its contribution to smelter profits is expected to decline. Smelter maintenance will gradually start in September. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1 million tons. Domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline month - on - month in September. After the copper tariff is implemented, imported copper will flow back to the domestic market, and with the expected decline in domestic production in the second half of the year, imported copper will squeeze the domestic market and affect pricing [3][55]. - As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons. Although it is currently the off - season for consumption, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities and the growing penetration rate of new energy in the automotive sector are driving copper demand. The downstream electrical appliance production is expected to improve during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. However, due to the impact of the US tariff and trade policies in the first half of the year, the terminal household appliance industry had a rush to export, which over - drew the export demand for the second half of the year. The domestic policy of "replacing old with new" also advanced domestic demand [4][56]. - Overall, the recent overseas trading of the Fed's rate cut expectation and independence issues has led to a decline in the US dollar index, supporting the non - ferrous metal market. Fundamentally, copper production is expected to decline month - on - month after September, and imported copper may increase. With domestic copper inventories still at a low level, copper supply is expected to tighten. Although the demand in the second half of the year is expected to be weaker year - on - year due to the impact of copper tariffs and the over - drawn demand from the previous terminal rush to export, there is an improving trend in the downstream copper products and terminal industries. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [4][56]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Economic Environment - In the US, the annual rate of the PCE price index in July increased by 2.6%, the same as the previous month. The core PCE price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year in July, higher than 2.8% in June. The initial value of new non - farm employment in July was 73,000, lower than the market expectation of 110,000 and far below the monthly average of 168,000 in 2024. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, the same as in January this year and still at a historical low [5]. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing climate. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points. The non - manufacturing and composite PMI output indices continued to expand in August. The cumulative social financing scale in the first seven months was 23.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.12 trillion yuan year - on - year. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and RMB loans increased by 6.9% [7]. 3.2 Copper Supply Data - In the first half of 2025, the global copper mine production increased by about 2.7%, with the concentrate production increasing by 2.8% and the recycled refined copper production growing by 2.3%. The global refined copper consumption increased by about 4.8%, and China's apparent demand is estimated to have increased by about 7.5%. The net import of refined copper decreased by 2.6% [13]. - As of August 29, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports was 550,000 tons, an increase of 77,000 tons from the previous month. Freeport Indonesia is expected to use 90% of its expiring copper concentrate export quota next month, with a significant expected increase in exports [16]. - As of August 29, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) in China was - 41.25 US dollars per dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.12 US cents per pound. After the smelter processing fees showed an upward inflection point, they have continued to decline in recent periods. The sulfuric acid price has reached a high, and smelter maintenance will gradually start in September [19]. - In August, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 280 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.24%, and increased by 15.59% year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to August increased by 978,800 tons, an increase of 12.30%. Five smelters have maintenance plans in September, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1 million tons. SMM expects domestic electrolytic copper production to decrease by 52,500 tons month - on - month in September, a decrease of 4.48%, and increase by 114,700 tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.42% [19]. - From January to July 2025, the total import volume was 2.2223 million tons, a 0.04% decrease from the same period last year. In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper imports were 336,000 tons, a 12.07% year - on - year increase. After the copper tariff is implemented, imported copper will flow back to the domestic market, and with the expected decline in domestic production in the second half of the year, imported copper will squeeze the domestic market [20]. - Since August, the price difference between refined and scrap copper has been widening but is still below the reasonable level. Affected by the new policy in September, downstream copper factories have little intention to purchase for inventory and are only making rigid - demand purchases. In July 2025, scrap copper imports were 190,000 tons, which is lower year - on - year but still at a historical high. Due to the US copper tariff and tight supply in Europe, scrap copper imports are expected to further decline [24]. 3.3 Copper Demand - As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons. Despite the current consumption off - season, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities and the growing penetration rate of new energy in the automotive sector are driving copper demand. The downstream electrical appliance production is expected to improve during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [30]. - According to Steel Union data, the operating load of refined copper rod enterprises has dropped to about 60%. The operating rate of copper tubes has also decreased in summer, and the terminal production orders are insufficient. However, the copper foil production has improved due to the demand from the new energy market. The overall operating rate of copper products is 61.6%, and it is expected to increase during the consumption peak season [33]. - From January to June, the investment in power grid projects was 291.1 billion yuan, a 14.6% year - on - year increase, reaching a record high for the same period. The investment in power source projects was 363.5 billion yuan, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. The power grid project is a rigid downstream demand for copper, supporting copper prices [38]. - From January to July, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a 9.2% year - on - year decrease. The new construction area was 352.06 million square meters, a 19.4% decrease. Although the housing market policies in first - and second - tier cities are being optimized, the market still needs time to stabilize and currently drags down copper demand [40]. - In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, a 26.3% and 27.4% year - on - year increase respectively. From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, a 39.2% and 38.5% year - on - year increase respectively. After September, the new energy vehicle market will enter the peak season, and with policy support, it is expected to drive consumption and support copper prices [43]. - In July 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 20.597 million units, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. From January to July, the cumulative production was 183.455 million units, a 5.1% cumulative increase. The demand for air - conditioners is currently in the off - season and is expected to increase slightly during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. From January to July, the cumulative production of household refrigerators was 59.632 million units, a 5.0% increase, and the cumulative production of household freezers was 15.512 million units, a 1.3% decrease. The refrigerator production is expected to rebound more strongly than air - conditioners during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. However, due to the US tariff policy in the first half of the year, the terminal household appliance industry had a rush to export, over - drawing the export demand for the second half of the year. The domestic policy of "replacing old with new" also advanced domestic demand [45]. 3.4 Inventory - As of September 2, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 158,800 tons, a 12.01% increase from the previous month and a 50.48% decrease from the same period last year. The COMEX copper inventory was 241,000 tons, an 8.24% increase from the previous month and a 600% increase from the same period last year. The global copper inventory increase is due to the release of inventory after the copper tariff implementation. The LME copper inventory has returned to a medium - level for the same period, and the global visible copper inventory is still low, supporting copper prices [48]. - As of September 3, 2025, the SHFE electrolytic copper inventory was 19,500 tons, an increase of 704 tons (4%) from the previous month and an 84.18% decrease from the same period last year. After the copper tariff implementation, the SHFE copper inventory has not increased significantly and is still at a low level. It is expected to remain low during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory has been increasing, but there was a decline last week. With the improvement of the import price ratio, some goods in the bonded area have been cleared and entered the domestic market [51].
秋交会”长达两个半月!多地出招抢抓楼市“金九银十
Group 1 - The core theme of the news is the launch of various housing promotion activities across multiple cities in China, particularly during the traditional peak season for real estate sales known as "Golden September and Silver October" [1][2] - Hunan province initiated a campaign titled "Anju Furong · Chang Gou Hao Fang," which includes multiple housing purchase incentives aimed at reducing the financial burden on homebuyers [1][3] - The "Autumn Trade Fair" is characterized by a longer duration and a more diverse range of participating companies compared to previous years, indicating stronger support for the real estate market [1][4] Group 2 - New policies were introduced during the housing fairs, such as home purchase subsidies in Yueyang, with amounts reaching up to 200,000 yuan for eligible buyers [5] - Several cities, including Nanchang and Fuzhou, have optimized their housing fund policies to stimulate the market, reflecting a broader trend of policy adjustments aimed at stabilizing the real estate sector [7][8] - The expectation of further policy measures to stabilize the housing market is growing, with more cities likely to announce supportive actions during the peak sales season [9][10]
“秋交会”长达两个半月!多地出招抢抓楼市“金九银十”
Group 1 - The core theme of the news is the launch of various housing promotion activities in multiple Chinese provinces, aimed at easing the financial burden on homebuyers and stimulating the real estate market during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [1][2] - Hunan province initiated the "Anju Furong · Chang Gou Hao Fang" campaign, involving 14 cities and offering multiple purchasing incentives to support homebuyers [1][3] - The "Autumn Trade Fair" is characterized by a longer duration and a diverse range of participating companies compared to previous years, indicating stronger support for the real estate market [1][3][4] Group 2 - New policies were introduced during the housing fairs, such as home purchase subsidies in Yueyang, with amounts reaching up to 200,000 yuan for eligible buyers [5] - Various cities, including Nanchang and Fuzhou, optimized their housing fund policies to stimulate demand, reflecting a broader trend of policy adjustments to support the real estate sector [7][8] - The expectation of further policy measures to stabilize the real estate market is growing, with more cities likely to announce supportive actions during the peak sales season [8][10]
冠通每日交易策略-20250903
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 09:59
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, including copper, lithium carbonate, crude oil, asphalt, PP, plastic, PVC, coking coal, and urea, and provides corresponding market outlooks and trading suggestions [9][11][12][15]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - The price of copper is expected to fluctuate strongly. The US ISM manufacturing index contracted, and the new order index expanded for the first time since the beginning of the year. The price index hit the lowest level since February. In China, the import of copper concentrates and the port inventory of concentrates have increased, and the processing fees of smelters have decreased. The production of electrolytic copper in September is expected to decline. The import of copper will affect the domestic market. Although the current consumption is in the off - season, the investment in power grid facilities has increased, but the external demand will weaken in the second half of the year, and the domestic demand has been advanced. The decline of the US dollar index supports the non - ferrous metal market, and the copper inventory is low, with supply tightening and demand expected to enter the peak season [9][11]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate has decreased. The supply is still relatively loose, with the production in Jiangxi shrinking and lithium spodumene making up for the gap. The import volume in July decreased. The market sentiment is bearish, but the decline space is limited [12]. Crude Oil - It is recommended to short at high prices. The EIA data shows that the inventory of crude oil and gasoline in the US has decreased, and the refinery operating rate is still high. OPEC + will increase production in September, and the global oil surplus is expected to increase. The trade situation between the US and India may affect the global oil trade flow. Although the price has rebounded due to some factors, the supply - demand relationship will weaken after the end of the consumption peak season [13][15]. Asphalt - The asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate. The asphalt production rate has decreased, and the expected production in September will increase. The downstream demand is affected by factors such as funds, weather, and the price of crude oil. The cost support is limited, and the supply - demand is weak [16]. PP - The PP is expected to fluctuate. The downstream operating rate has increased slightly, and the enterprise operating rate is at a neutral level. The cost has rebounded due to the increase in crude oil prices. The new production capacity has been put into operation, and the demand is weak but may be boosted in the peak season. The macro - policy on over - capacity will affect the market [17][18]. Plastic - The plastic is expected to fluctuate. The operating rate has increased, and the downstream operating rate has also increased slightly. The cost has rebounded due to the increase in crude oil prices. The new production capacity has been put into operation, and the demand is weak but may be improved as the agricultural film enters the stocking period. The macro - policy on over - capacity will affect the market [19]. PVC - The PVC is expected to fluctuate downward. The supply is still high, and the downstream demand is weak. The export is expected to decrease, and the inventory pressure is large. The real estate market has not improved significantly. The new production capacity is increasing, and the cost support is not strong [20][21]. Coking Coal - The coking coal is expected to be weak. The price has fluctuated, and the supply has been disturbed recently. The downstream coke production is positive, but the steel mill profit has weakened, and the coke price cut has been proposed but not implemented [22]. Urea - The urea is expected to fluctuate. The spot market is stable, and the Indian import tender price is expected to be lower. The supply is still loose, and the demand is expected to improve slightly after the parade. The compound fertilizer factory's demand for raw materials may be limited, and the inventory has increased. The market will be affected by the peak season demand [24].
上海新政一周:市场热度回升,二手房单日成交再度破千套
第一财经· 2025-09-03 09:57
2025.09. 03 本文字数:2713,阅读时长大约5分钟 8月底,上海今年以来首次楼市优化政策"沪六条"出台。利好政策落地仅一周,效应已得到初步显现。 第一财经记者从多家开发商处了解到,不少此前受限于购房资格的改善型客户在新政后获得"房票",成为新增客源的重要组成部分,而公积金"又提又贷"也大大 增强了客户购买力,推动不少项目成交量同步增长,更有新开盘项目实现"日光"。与此同时,二手房也时隔2个月再次出现单日破千套的好成绩。 业内认为,随着市场对政策的反应和消化,未来成交表现将稳健上涨,对上海平稳市场态势形成有效巩固,并有望引领全国一二线热点城市楼市复苏。在各大城 市相继出台新一轮的楼市支持政策后,"金九银十"可期。 作者 | 第一财经 郑娜 新获"房票"客户回流 "利好落地之后,结合我们此前分销提高佣金的举措,过去一周项目来访量增长了50%。"9月1日,位于嘉定新城的一个改善型楼盘销售主管告诉第一财经记者, 新政明显激活了一波市场需求。 8月25日,上海出台楼市支持政策新政,明确进一步调减住房限购、支持提取住房公积金支付购房首付款、商贷利率定价不再区分首套房和二套房等新政"组合 拳",多措并举,切实降 ...