本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者付乐 北京报道 "眼看着金价跌了40分钟，至少指纹识别了100多次。都在抄底，抄不进去，点着点着睡着了。"有00后 投资者分享道。 近日，部分银行出现了积存金买不进，交易火爆的现象。2月3日，博通分析金融行业资深分析师王蓬博 对《华夏时报》记者表示，这一现象就是金价波动下交易需求短期集中爆发，直接超出了银行系统的承 载能力，再叠加银行主动管控交易节奏，属于运营层面的阶段性问题，不是产品底层逻辑或者市场系统 性风险的问题，而是银行端应对交易高峰的适配能力未及时跟上。 "买不进"的困局 某银行积存金购买界面（由受访者供图） 1989年出生的冬冬（化名）在深圳从事房地产中介，2月3日晚上，她对本报记者表示，自己前几天在某 大行以均价1190元/克左右的价格购入积存金，陆续买入一两百克，投入资金数十万元。"当时买不进 去，之后又买进去了，买入后金价便出现波动，当前已跌至1090元/克左右。" "我是纯跟风玩一下，银行的朋友跟我说最近几个月黄金行情还行，投资有20%的收益，没想到自己刚 买入就被套牢。"冬冬直言，黄金投资赌性大、风险高，自己回本后便会撤出。 "现在买黄金的人 ...

近期黄金市场可谓上演了"过山车"行情，在创下历史新高后经历了大幅回调，国内黄金ETF也未能幸免，一度出现大面积跌停。黄金市场的"冰与火之歌"开 启，今日黄金再次反弹，黄金ETF国泰（518800）盘中涨超3.6%。 从中长期视角出发，黄金的上行趋势仍未完待续。货币宽松、黄金的避险属性以及全球去美元化趋势，仍是支撑黄金的中长期利好因素。当前来看，我们认 为短期剧烈回撤或不改变长期趋势，本轮牛市的美联储降息周期、逆全球化与海外不确定性、全球去美元化和央行购金等逻辑仍未逆转，长期维度上对金价 构成支撑。预计美联储年内仍可能继续降息，而在当前通胀有所回落的环境下，黄金作为不生息的资产仍将具备吸引力。 面对黄金市场的短期巨震与长期向好的格局，不同类型的投资者应采取差异化策略，兼顾短期反弹机会与长期配置价值，理性应对市场波动，规避盲目跟风 操作的风险。短期内，黄金仍处于高波动阶段，政策预期、地缘政治等因素仍可能引发价格反复，因此需控制仓位，避免过度加杠杆。 同时，需密切关注沃什提名的后续进展、美联储政策表态以及美国经济数据，及时应对政策预期变动带来的市场波动。建议投资者静待市场波动率降低，树 立配置思维，不盲目追涨杀跌。 ...

Summary of Key Points Company and Industry Involved - The report discusses **Cai Bai**, a company involved in the gold retail industry, particularly in response to fluctuations in gold prices and consumer behavior related to gold purchases [1]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold Price Surge**: Since the second half of last year, there has been a significant increase in gold prices, enhancing its investment appeal and highlighting its value as a hedge against inflation [1]. - **Increased Demand for Physical Gold**: The low deposit rates and a sluggish real estate market have led consumers to view physical gold as a more attractive investment option, driving up demand [1]. - **Asset Value Appreciation**: Existing gold bar assets are appreciating in value, which increases the potential for profit when liquidating these assets [1]. - **Consumer Behavior**: Recent volatility in gold prices has resulted in increased foot traffic at Cai Bai stores, with consumers exhibiting a "buying the dip" mentality during price fluctuations [1]. - **Future Outlook**: The ongoing bullish sentiment towards gold is expected to continue, suggesting that price volatility will remain favorable for gold investment purchases [1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Performance Forecast**: The company has projected a significant increase in net profit for the fourth quarter, estimating a net profit attributable to shareholders of between **413 million to 583 million yuan**, representing a year-on-year increase of **150% to 255%**. The non-recurring net profit is expected to be between **365 million to 535 million yuan**, reflecting a year-on-year increase of **130% to 236%** [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) is experiencing a strong rebound, with significant trading activity and a favorable fee structure compared to other gold ETFs [1][2][3]. Group 1: Product Highlights - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) closely tracks the Shanghai Gold Index and has a lower management and custody fee of 0.25% + 0.05%, making it competitive in the market [3]. - The ETF has attracted a total of 191 million yuan in the last 10 trading days, indicating strong investor interest [2]. Group 2: Market Events - As of February 4, international gold prices have rebounded, surpassing the 5000 USD per ounce mark, with a daily increase of over 2% [4]. - COMEX gold futures have also shown strength, reflecting a similar upward trend in prices [4]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Galaxy Securities highlights concerns regarding Kevin Warsh's potential monetary policy changes, which could lead to a stronger dollar and impact gold prices. However, they note that Warsh's recent statements suggest a more dovish stance on interest rates [5]. - The demand for gold assets is increasing due to geopolitical instability, which is expected to support gold prices in the long term [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the unprecedented surge in gold prices, which reached $5,093 per ounce on January 26, 2026, driven by various factors including geopolitical tensions, changes in U.S. Federal Reserve policies, and sustained central bank gold purchases [1][3][5][7]. Group 2 - Three main engines are driving the historic rise in gold prices: 1. Geopolitical "black swan" events, such as the Greenland sovereignty dispute and increased military tensions in the Middle East, have highlighted gold's safe-haven attributes. Historical data shows that a 1% increase in the global risk index (VIX) correlates with an average 0.3% rise in gold prices [3]. 2. Expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy due to a weakening U.S. labor market may lead to unexpected monetary easing, contributing to a 1.6% drop in the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the largest weekly decline in eight months, which in turn supports gold prices [5]. 3. Continued central bank gold purchases, with the People's Bank of China increasing its reserves for 14 consecutive months, and Poland's central bank planning to buy an additional 150 tons, are providing long-term support for gold prices [7]. Group 3 - Historical comparisons indicate that the current gold price surge is significantly different from the 2008 financial crisis, where gold prices only increased by 25%. In contrast, the cumulative increase from 2024 to 2026 has exceeded 150%. Additionally, the simultaneous decline of gold, U.S. Treasuries, and the dollar suggests a market re-evaluation of risk [9]. Group 4 - For ordinary investors, three types of participation strategies are suggested: 1. Physical gold is suitable for long-term allocation but requires consideration of storage costs and liquidity constraints. 2. Gold ETFs, such as SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), have seen a recent increase in holdings by 6.87 tons, making them suitable for medium-term holding. 3. Gold-related stocks in the A-share market have recently experienced a surge, but their volatility is at the 90th percentile historically, indicating potential for correction [10][12]. Group 5 - As Bank of America raises its gold price target to $6,000, it is essential to recognize that this market trend reflects a restructuring of the global economic order. Systemic risk premiums are being permanently factored into gold prices due to the U.S. potentially undermining its own trade rules [11].

4日早间，现货黄金涨势不止，盘中再次突破5000美元大关，涨超1.2%。 中国建投子公司国泰基金此前称，面对黄金市场的短期巨震与长期向好的格局，不同类型的投资者应采取差异化策略，兼顾短期反弹机会与长期配置价 值，理性应对市场波动，规避盲目跟风操作的风险。 对于中长期投资者而言，建议投资者静待市场波动率降低，树立配置思维，不盲目追涨杀跌。中长期投资者可分批进场，逢金价回调逐步加仓，通过长期 持有分享黄金长期上行的收益。 国泰基金称，黄金并非万能的避险资产，其价格波动也受多种因素影响，不存在绝对的"只涨不跌"。投资者应根据自身的风险承受能力、投资周期、投资 目标制定合理的投资计划，避免盲目跟风追涨杀跌；同时，需警惕市场过度炒作带来的泡沫风险，尤其在金价快速上涨、情绪过热时，应保持理性，不宜 过度乐观。 文：王玉玲 华安期货4日早间表示，近期，市场获利了结及宏观面信息冲击带来金银价格巨幅波动。美国经济向好与通胀压力并存，美联储政策不确定性增加。生产 者价格上涨可能迫使美联储维持"中性"货币政策利率的时间长于预期，给金价带来压力。 中长期来看，全球增加官方黄金储备的趋势、公共债务高企带来的主权货币危机及工业领域的广阔 ...

最近一周，国际国内金价出现大幅震荡，工行、农行、中行、建行、交行等多家国有大行以及部分股份 制银行，陆续调整积存金等贵金属相关业务规则，并同步发布市场风险提示，强化投资者风险管控要 求。此次各银行对于积存金业务的密集调整，距上一次调整仅过去两个月时间。随着投资门槛的不断上 调，积存金业务已不再是此前投资者眼中的"低门槛"业务。 金价坐上"过山车" 上周起，在开年以来被市场热捧的黄金，突然开启了令投资者心惊胆战的史诗级巨震，其价格形成明显 的"过山车"走势。1月30日，国际现货黄金在创下历史新高后突遭大跌，后迅速反弹，第二日金价再度 遭遇暴跌，并创下40年来的最大单日跌幅。虽然本周以来，金价有所反弹，但距离此前高点尚有较大缺 口。 1月26日，伦敦黄金现货价格首次突破每盎司5000美元，创历史新高。随后继续上涨，1月28日，伦敦黄 金现货价格突破每盎司5200美元。1月29日早盘冲破每盎司5500美元，并一度创下历史新高，虽然随后 金价略有回落，但已站稳5500美元/盎司。当日，国际金价的飙升迅速传导至国内市场，国内部分主流 金饰品牌报价刷新1700元/克，创下历史新高，单日价格上涨近百元。 1月30日，伦敦黄 ...

● 本报记者 郝健 近期黄金价格上演过山车式行情。实物黄金交易中，回购柜台前投资者因价格波动或获利了结或陷入浮 亏纠结，而销售区却因投资需求与刚需消费持续火爆；金融市场上，黄金主题类ETF上演"跌停后反 弹"，资金在恐慌与淡定之间反复切换。机构表示，黄金价格短期波动加剧，长期牛市逻辑虽未改变， 但需警惕市场动荡风险。 卖金各有考量 虽已是中午十二点半，北京某商场办理黄金回购业务的柜台前依然排着长队。 "周日人多，队伍绕着圈排，根本看不到头，等三个小时是常事。"一位住在附近的大爷告诉中国证券报 记者，他今天已是第二次过来，"儿子结婚急用钱，看着金价从高点下来了，怕再跌，赶紧来卖掉一部 分，落袋为安。" 这种"怕再跌"的心理，在投资者中颇具代表性。投资者魏女士从去年底开始分批购入投资金条，面对当 前的高位震荡，她选择先卖出一部分锁定利润。"涨的时候总觉得还能涨，跌的时候又怕一直跌。人性 就是这样。反正现在卖也是赚的。" 次日，剧情再次反转。2月3日，这20只ETF收盘全部上涨。黄金股票型ETF中，国泰中证沪深港黄金产 业股票ETF领涨，当日涨幅4.24%；商品型黄金ETF中，华安易富黄金ETF上涨5.19%，表现 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have led to a mixed sentiment among investors, with some opting to sell for profit while others remain hopeful for future gains. Despite short-term volatility, the long-term bullish outlook on gold remains intact, though market risks should be monitored [1][7]. Group 1: Investor Behavior - Many investors are selling gold due to fears of further price declines, with some choosing to lock in profits after recent purchases [2][3]. - A segment of investors, however, remains optimistic about gold's long-term value, viewing current price dips as buying opportunities [4][6]. - Emotional factors and social media influence are driving some new investors to make impulsive purchases, despite the risks associated with price volatility [4][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The physical gold market is experiencing a stark contrast between high demand for purchases and anxiety over price fluctuations among sellers [2][4]. - Gold-themed ETFs have shown significant trading activity, with notable inflows even during price declines, indicating a complex investor sentiment towards these financial instruments [6][7]. - Institutions are observing a shift in the narrative surrounding gold trading, focusing more on the restructuring of global financial dynamics rather than just liquidity changes [7].

▲2月3日早上9点20分左右，北京菜百商场还未正式开门，门前已经挤满了前来买金的消费者。一位工作人员透露，回收黄金的 消费者已经从侧门进入商场内部排队。新京报贝壳财经记者姜樊 摄 随着黄金价格的持续震荡，买金者和卖金者都坐不住了。 精准"逃顶"：投资者1个月赚逾1500元，称"有赚就卖" "卖的人多就该买了" 黄金震荡买金者逆向操作 "今天人不算最多的，周末比这人还多一些。"原本回购业务（即黄金回收）与购买投资金条同在一处，但由于近期人流太大，菜 百商场已将回购业务临时安排在另一层。现场有多名工作人员举着"回购业务验证队尾""购买队尾"牌子，维护现场秩序。 在菜百商场三层，卖金者排成了一条长长的"U型"队伍。队伍中有消费者聊着自己的黄金投资心得。 ▲菜百工作人员举着回购业务的牌子指引卖金者排队。新京报贝壳财经记者姜樊 摄 "我买的时候每克大约1100元，现在卖其实是亏钱的。"市民张先生在这个点位购买了200克黄金，今天他打算先把手里的黄金卖 掉一部分，"图个心安"。 上周四开始，黄金价格急转直下。国际金价一度站上5500美元/盎司，却在几天之内跌至4700美元/盎司。金价的"大跳水"让张先 生"心里没底"。尽 ...